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- Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
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- Sprache: Englisch
In order to think about the future and bring it to life,
Futures in Action emphasizes the practical and pragmatic dimensions of foresight. This book makes it possible to develop a vision of the future, to anticipate significant changes and pinpoint the weak areas. Foresight helps to rally players around a common vision, influence strategic decisions, and inspire innovation and organizational transformation.
Futures in Action brings together the expertise of contributors from a wide range of public and private organizations. The diversity of their contributions puts into perspective the implementation of foresight both in France and worldwide.
Exploring the major lessons and questions to come, this book is for all those who are convinced of the need to anticipate and build the future by taking action today.
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Seitenzahl: 354
Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2024
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Table of Contents
Cover
Table of Contents
Title Page
Copyright Page
Author Presentation
Introduction
PART 1: The Foresight of Futurists
1 How to Build Futures Consciousness and Resilience for Operational Foresight
1.1. Introduction
1.2. Choice of approaches and methods for foresight in practice
1.3. Futures mean change – where and how to look for futures signals to build up futures resilience
2 A Strategic Foresight Framework for Anticipating Uncertainties in Tourism Industry
2.1. Introduction
2.2. Strategic planning versus strategic foresight
2.3. Uncertainty management framework
2.4. Recommendations
3 Generative AI in the Newsroom: The Future of Journalism and Media
3.1. Becoming a professional futurist
3.2. In action: applying foresight in action with a group of European journalists
4 Leading a New Path with Foresight in China
4.1. Foresight’s value is gradually being seen
4.2. Foresight practice demands a leap of faith
4.3. Fostering futures thinking as the foundation
4.4. Navigating foresight with patience and agility
4.5. Charting new business landscape in China with foresight
5 Creating Desirable Futures
5.1. The specifics of foresight in action
5.2. The futurist’s tools: between tradition and innovation
5.3. Sociocultural foresight
5.4. Personal considerations
PART 2: Foresight for Companies and Public Institutions
6 Foresight at Michelin: Evidence and Reflections
6.1. The empirical meeting of new needs and qualifying resources
6.2. A predisposing career path
6.3. My training in foresight
6.4. Accelerators for a change in scale
6.5. Duty to warn, blind spot researcher, mental agility agent: what is the mission for Michelin foresight?
6.6. What deliverables?
6.7. What methods and resources?
7 Bouygues Construction, Committed to a Desirable Future
7.1. Context
7.2. Foresight at Bouygues Construction
8 Brand Heritage, a Catalyst for Innovation and Transformation
8.1. Introduction, the mission – what foresight?
8.2. Practice – which approach?
8.3. Organic governance – how does the emergence of creation and innovation cope with the organization’s approval processes?
9 Decathlon Perspectives: Shaping the Future with Collective Intelligence
9.1. An explorer of possible and desirable futures
9.2. Decathlon’s various foresight experiments
9.3. Obstacles to avoid when using foresight
9.4. Tools and sources of inspiration
9.5. Potential disruptions and future trends
10 Foresight at the Centre National d’Études Spatiales
10.1. Foresight methodologies and practices
10.2. Memory and foresight monitoring
10.3. Foresight and action
10.4. Influences for tomorrow
PART 3: Foresight at Universities
11 From Founding Institution to Collaborative Foresight at the Université Catholique de Lille
11.1. The founding institution of a forward-looking university
11.2. Foresight based on experimentation and innovation
11.3. The paradoxes of foresight
11.4. “Embedded” foresight to serve the university’s missions
12 Operational Foresight at the University of Strasbourg
12.1. Introduction
12.2. The foresight and strategy mission
12.3. Three key players in foresight at the University of Strasbourg
12.4. Foresight at the University of Strasbourg
12.5. In search of dedicated time
12.6. Monitoring and key sources
13 Using Foresight to Drive Transformation: Building a Strategy After a Merger
13.1. Shaking up the status quo
13.2. Filling in the gaps
13.3. Embarking on a journey in foresight
13.4. The risks of the journey
13.5. One pit stop before a new beginning
13.6. Any candidates for the journey?
13.7. The map room
PART 4: Local Authority Foresight
14 Foresight and Public Action: The Case of Greater Lyon
14.1. A basic question of public action: “where are we going?”
14.2. A culture of foresight unique to the Lyon Metropolis
15 Rev3: A Regional Dynamic Combining Foresight and Action
15.1. Introduction: qualifying rev3
15.2. Back to basics: Jeremy Rifkin’s master plan
15.3. Foresight and program documents to mark the life of rev3
15.4. Foresight and strategic documents as a general framework for action
16 Isère 2030: Isère’s Administrative Project
16.1. Serving the public
16.2. Foresight, a necessity for local communities
16.3. Implementing the approach
16.4. Foresight in the present
17 Social Cohesion and Solidarity in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques in 2040
17.1. Territorial foresight initiated by Jean-Jacques Lasserre, President of the Pyrénées-Atlantiques
17.2. A participatory foresight approach
Reflection and Perspective on Foresight
Conclusion
References
List of Authors
Index
References
End User License Agreement
List of Tables
Chapter 2
Table 2.1. An illustrative example for four scenario archetypes for tourism
Chapter 17
Table 17.1. Criteria and rating for mapping foresight issues
List of Illustrations
Chapter 1
Figure 1.1. The other side of the coin, that is, un-futures also matter for fo...
Figure 1.2. Future clinique in action with participants co-creating solutions ...
Figure 1.3. Futures resilience is needed for embracing the VUCA world (Heinone...
Chapter 2
Figure 2.1. The three anticipatory systems
Figure 2.2. Futures foresight framework
Figure 2.3. An illustrative example of a tourism influence map
Figure 2.4. Axes of uncertainties and credibility
Figure 2.5. Futures Triangle
Chapter 3
Figure 3.1. Strategic Foresight Methology.
Figure 3.2. Excerpt from the “Generative AI in the newsroom” masterclass by Sy...
Figure 3.3. Excerpt from the “Generative AI in the newsroom” masterclass....
Figure 3.4. Warnings disclaimed at the beginning of the “Generative AI in the ...
Chapter 4
Figure 4.1. “Three Horizons” framework.
Chapter 12
Figure 12.1. The foresight and strategy mission.
Chapter 13
Figure 13.1. Greek triangle, Michel Godet (2000)
Figure 13.2. Foresight path developed with Agnodice
Figure 13.3. The Star of Vision (Kern, Vignes 2021, illustration by Étienne Ap...
Figure 13.4. Standard issue sheet
Figure 13.5. Working groups schedule
Chapter 16
Figure 16.1. Ten transformations at work for Isère by 2030.
Figure 16.2. Four foresight benchmarks to guide public action.
Chapter 17
Figure 17.1. Example of a graphic panel.
Figure 17.2. Foresight questions grouped by theme.
Figure 17.3. Cd64’s calendar for foresight reflection cycles.
Guide
Cover Page
Table of Contents
Title Page
Copyright Page
Author Presentation
Introduction
Begin Reading
Reflection and Perspective on Foresight
Conclusion
References
List of Authors
Index
Other titles from iSTE in Innovation, Entrepreneurship and Management
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Innovation and Technology Set
coordinated byChantal Ammi
Volume 19
Futures in Action
Strategic Anticipations and Deployments in Organizations Facing the Future
Edited by
Carine Dartiguepeyrou
Michel Saloff-Coste
First published 2024 in Great Britain and the United States by ISTE Ltd and John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, this publication may only be reproduced, stored or transmitted, in any form or by any means, with the prior permission in writing of the publishers, or in the case of reprographic reproduction in accordance with the terms and licenses issued by the CLA. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside these terms should be sent to the publishers at the undermentioned address:
ISTE Ltd27-37 St George’s RoadLondon SW19 4EUUK
www.iste.co.uk
John Wiley & Sons, Inc.111 River StreetHoboken, NJ 07030USA
www.wiley.com
© ISTE Ltd 2024The rights of Carine Dartiguepeyrou and Michel Saloff-Coste to be identified as the authors of this work have been asserted by them in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s), contributor(s) or editor(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of ISTE Group.
Library of Congress Control Number: 2024948367
British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication DataA CIP record for this book is available from the British LibraryISBN 978-1-83669-005-4
Author Presentation
Fawaz Abu Ssitta
Fawaz Abu Sitta is UNESCO Chair in Anticipatory Systems; Visiting Fellow at Hughes Hall, University of Cambridge; Foresight Research Director, Center for Futures Studies, University of Dubai; and Adjunct Professor, Master of Foresight Program, Rochester Institute of Technology.
Dr. Abu Sitta is an advocate for promoting futures literacy as a method for accelerating innovation and building resilient nations. Dr. Abu Sitta has published and conducted foresight studies that have been translated into various languages and adopted by organizations and governments globally. He is currently leading foresight research studies on the futures of teachers’ well-being in the era of digital transformation. He is also working on investigating the futures of assessment.
Dr. Abu Sitta’s has received a recognition certificate from H.H. Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, UAE Prime Minister and the Ruler of Dubai for his efforts in digitally retransforming government services. He also received an award from H.M. King Abdullah II for his work in developing the Knowledge Management Framework for the Jordanian government.
Dr. Abu Sitta holds a Master of Science in Foresight from University of Houston and a PhD from the University of Bath.
Virginie Alonzi
Virginie Alonzi is the Strategic Foresight Director for the Bouygues Construction group. Passionate about the creation of cities and territories, she is particularly interested in urban and territorial foresight by adopting a holistic and multidisciplinary approach aimed at co-constructing desirable futures with all of the stakeholders in the making of the city and territories, while respecting ecosystems and planetary physical limits in order to ensure the habitability of our planet.
Holding a business school diploma, as well as a second master’s degree in marketing, she began her career with 3M France in strategic marketing, and then worked with the Brandt group in product marketing. In 2001, Virginie joined Bouygues Construction, first at the Communications Department, then at the Sustainable Development Department of the group. In 2015, she was appointed as the group’s Director of Strategic Foresight.
Virginie Alonzi was an auditor for IHEDATE in 2018 and for the Institut Palladio in 2022, and is also co-vice-president of France Villes et territoires Durables for the Business College. Additionally, she is also a member of the CESE (Conseil économique, social et environnemental) for the city of Suresnes. Laureate in 2022 of the “100 who make the city” by Traits Urbains as well as the “100 who make the Transition” by Décideurs Magazine in 2023.
Jean-Marc Assié
After graduating in biology and applied mathematics from the Université Paris Cité, Jean-Marc Assié joined the Université Catholique de Lille, where he completed an agricultural engineering course at ISA and an MBA for engineers and scientists at IEFSI-EDHEC. From 1983 to 1989, he worked as a research engineer at the French Ministry of Agriculture, before joining the field of professional economic organizations as a project manager, then director. In 1989, he joined the organization, development and strategy consulting sector, working for the Université Catholique de Lille and Entreprises et Cités. In 1996, he became General Delegate of the Polytechnicum (engineering schools and scientific sector), then in 1997, General Secretary–General Services Director of the Université Catholique de Lille and a delegate of the UDESCA (Union nationale des universités et instituts catholiques). He is also an employer representative on various national and territorial joint bodies.
Since 2015, he has been General Director of Development and Strategy at the Université Catholique de Lille, with the foresight department being created within this framework. He is deeply involved in the field of education, higher education and research, in the prospects of service to youth, service to territories in France and Europe, and is very mindful of making higher education accessible to as many people as possible. He is committed to coordinating activities and work on the future of education and the future of the university, with a view to the future and the ECOPOSS “Osons l’éloge du futur !” project. He is also helping to develop numerous collaborations and partnerships in these fields.
Séverine Battin
With a state diploma in socio-educational assistance, Séverine Battin has been working in various departments since 1993. In 2003, she joined the Isère department as deputy childcare manager for the Nord-Isère region, where she continued her career. As Deputy Director of a Maison du Département en territoire (2005–2008), she broadened her field of expertise by becoming director of real estate and resources. In 2011, Séverine Battin was appointed Deputy General Manager (DGM) in charge of territories, then, in 2015, she became DGM of the family center, the community’s core competence. Since 2019, she has been acting as director general of services at the request of Chairman Jean-Pierre Barbier. Convinced of the importance of lifelong learning, in 2003 she obtained a Diplôme d’Études Supérieures Appliquées (DESA – Diploma of Higher Applied Studies) in Organizational Strategy, and passed the local government competitive exams for principal executive (2010) and administrator (2017). Séverine Battin was awarded the Legion of Honor on July 14, 2018.
Louis-Marie Clouet
Louis-Marie Clouet holds a doctorate in economics and is a graduate of Sciences Po Paris. Since September 2023, he has been Director of Foresight at the Université Catholique de Lille, and Director of the ECOPOSS project “Osons l’éloge du futur !”. From 2009 to 2011, Louis-Marie Clouet was head of a Franco-German foresight research project on the future of Europe, at the Institut français des relations internationales. He is interested in the link between foresight, discernment and decision-making in complex situations.
Carine Dartiguepeyrou
Carine Dartiguepeyrou is a political scientist and futurist. She studied in Paris and London. Her thesis focused on European policy on information society, and she did a post-doctorate at Orange Lab. For the past 15 years, she has been working with major groups and public institutions on foresight projects. She has been General Secretary of Entretiens Albert-Kahn and the Hauts-de-Seine department’s public innovation laboratory since 2012. She had an international career as a strategy consultant before becoming a senior advisor at Rand Europe, where she led foresight projects for the European Commission from 2001 to 2004. She has written or edited some fifteen books on foresight, including Futures, the Great Turn (ISTE Ltd and John Wiley & Sons, 2023), Le futur est déjà là (Le Bord de l’eau, 2017) and Prospective d’un monde en mutation (L’Harmattan, 2010). Since its creation in 2011, she has taught at the Institut des Futurs souhaitables (IFs). She is a board member of the Institut des Futurs souhaitables, and a member of the R2ip network in innovation and foresight. She has been a research associate at the Université Catholique de Lille since 2023, but has collaborated with the Université Catholique de Lille’s foresight department from the very beginning. She has been elected president of the Société Française de Prospective and Vice-President of the International Foresight Research Network in September 2024.
Cecilia Ercoli
Cecilia Ercoli spent 20 years working for a Paris-based luxury fashion house, Maison de luxe, holding operational and transversal leadership positions in both manufacturing and retail, with a strong accent on creativity and innovation activities. She particularly enjoyed setting up “innovation labs” in various countries, introducing new skills and hybrid approaches, combining creation, technology, business intelligence, research and prototyping.
Her background as a nuclear engineer (ECP and Politecnico di Milano) and “researcher of the invisible” (at CERN in Geneva) blends together with her passion for art and Eastern traditions and practices, enabling her to reveal and follow unexpected paths of exploration and connection to the world.
Sylvia Gallusser
Sylvia Gallusser is a global futurist based in Silicon Valley, certified from Institute for the Future. As the Founder and CEO of Silicon Humanism, Sylvia conducts her foresight projects on the future of health, well-aging, social interaction and the home, the future of work and life-long learning, the future of media and news, as well as transformations in mobility and retail. She closely monitors the future of the mind and transhumanism, and investigates Artificial General Intelligence, Generative AI, and AI ethics. She is the host of the “Ethics of Futures” think tank within Association of Professional Futurists, a board member of Grey Swan Guild, and a mentor at the Sustainable Ocean Alliance. Sylvia is a published author of Speculative Fiction with Fast Future Publishing. She regularly gives keynotes and interviews as a distinguished female futurist (keynote speaker at the 2023 Microsoft Elevating You conference) and teaches in MBAs, Master in Entrepreneurship (HEC Paris) and Executive programs (UC Berkeley Graduate School of Journalism). Sylvia graduated from HEC Paris in 2003.
Sirkka Heinonen
Dr. Sirkka Heinonen is Professor Emeritus at the Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC), at the University of Turku. Previously she was Chief Research Scientist at VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland. She holds a PhD degree from Helsinki University, with 40 years of research and teaching experience in futures studies, especially technology foresight and innovations, urban and rural futures, sustainable information society, media and journalism, and renewable energy and lifestyles.
Currently, she leads FFRC parts in two three-year multidisciplinary research projects: RESCUE (Real Estate in Sustainable Urban Environment) and T-Winning Spaces (Winning Spatial Solution for Future of Work, enabling the double twin transitions of green/digital, and physical/virtual transforming our societies by 2035). She is a Member of the Club of Rome, Co-Chair of the Helsinki Node of the Millennium Project, Guest Professor at the University of Science and Technology of China, Member of the Academy of Technical Sciences, and former President and now Honorary Member of the Finnish Society for Futures Studies. She is also a member of the board of editors for six scientific futures journals. She is Director of FFRC Helsinki Office.
Audrey Hespel
With a degree in design and a fervent interest in design thinking, Audrey Hespel is a curious explorer at heart. With a heartfelt connection to the values of Decathlon, she has become well-rounded by putting her various talents to work for the company. Initially a keen observer of human behavior and its transformations, she went on to co-create Decathlon’s trend-observation unit, then its products, and ultimately the Alive by Decathlon innovation center.
She was trained in Theory U by Otto Scharmer, in NLP by the IPE PNL humaniste, in meditation by the AME association, and is a graduate of Lab Session #26 of the Institut des Futurs souhaitables (IFs). She is now the leader of Decathlon Perspectives, dedicated to foresight and the exploration of desirable futures.
Her motto is “Trust your intuition, energy doesn’t lie!”.
Pierre Houssais
Pierre Houssais is the director of foresight and public dialogue at the Métropole de Lyon. He began his career as Secretary General of the commune of Solaize, before joining the city of Saint-Étienne in 1999, first as technical advisor to the mayor, then as a project manager to the director general of services on territorial strategy issues. From 2004 to 2009, he supported the implementation of the urban project as the director of prospective and regulatory urban planning. In 2009, he joined Grand Lyon as Head of the department of foresight and agglomeration strategies, which he then transformed into the department of foresight and public dialogue. From 2011 to 2015, the department published a quarterly foresight magazine, M3 – Société urbaine et action publique, which he initiated and edited. Today, the department, which is part of the general management of the Métropole de Lyon, provides cross-disciplinary engineering services in the fields of foresight, citizen participation, user approaches and public policy assessment. The department shares and disseminates much of its work on its website: www.millenaire3.com.
Bin Hu
With over a decade of experience in foresight and innovation consulting, Bin co-founded FutureMatters, a foresight driven innovation consultancy, to assist corporations in pinpointing disruptive innovation prospects through the integration of strategic foresight and consumer insight. Bin also plays a pivotal role in operating the FuturistCircle, a community dedicated to future thinking in China. Additionally, Bin is a visiting lecturer of foresight and design thinking at educational institutes like Academy of Arts and Design at Tsinghua University, China Academy of Art, United World College, etc. He holds a Master’s degree in Business Design from Domus Academy in Italy.
Pauline Innegraeve
With a background in documentation and university libraries, Pauline Innegraeve has spent the last 15 years building up her expertise in transforming human organizations. She is currently in charge of the LILLIAD Learning Center Innovation within the University of Lille’s documentation services and also in charge of foresight and change management in the same facility. Supported by her solid training and networking skills, she combines these two methods in her practice.
Audrey Kost
Audrey Kost, a specialist in strategic management in higher education, research and innovation (ESRI), holds a PhD in Chemistry from the University of Strasbourg. From 2012 to 2016, she held the position of scientific project manager at the Agence nationale de la recherche (ANR), within the Direction des grands programmes d’investissement de l’État (DGPIE). In parallel with this position at ANR, Audrey Kost completed her initial training with an executive Master’s degree in Research Management at Université Paris Dauphine (Paris sciences et lettres). Appointed in 2017 as a research engineer at the Institut national de la santé et de la recherche médicale (Inserm), she is now Director of Scientific Affairs at the internationally renowned Institut de biologie moléculaire et cellulaire de Strasbourg (IGBMC, 700 staff, 40 nationalities, 250 publications/year). In 2020, she joined the University of Strasbourg as a project manager, reporting to the vice-president of strategy and development. Responsible for coordinating the programming of the Interdisciplinary Thematic Institutes (17.6 M€/year), she was also commissioned to propose a new organization to support the university’s strategy. In September 2021, the foresight and strategy mission, which she is now the head of, was created as part of the general services department, with the aim of bringing together crucial skills in foresight, consultancy and programming around strategic practice.
Jean-Jacques Lasserre
Following his training in agriculture, Jean Jacques-Lasserre took over his family farm in Bidache. From 1987 to 2001, he presided over Lur Berri, the Basque Country agricultural cooperative. Elected to the Bidache town council, he became the mayor of his commune in 1995. First elected to the General Council in 1988, he presided over the department from 2001 to 2008. He has been President of the Conseil départemental since 2015. Initially elected to the Regional Council in 1986, he was re-elected four times. Jean-Jacques Lasserre was also elected as a senator in 2011. Currently President of the Conseil départemental, he is a member of the Executive Committee of the Assemblée des départements de France. In the 2000s, he spearheaded a major study on the future of the Basque Country. He is the driving force behind the foresight approach that was launched in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques region in 2022.
Lynn Lin
Lynn Lin is a seasoned ethnographer and foresight practitioner with over 16 years of experience in deciphering people, culture, and business. As the co-founder of Future Matters, a foresight-driven innovation consultancy, she blends sharp insights with strategic foresight to anticipate emerging trends and drive transformative innovation, collaborating with leading international brands such as IKEA, Logitech, L’Oreal, and Mercedes-Benz.
Lin is also the co-founder of Futurist Circle, China’s pioneering futures community, dedicated to fostering futures thinking and enhancing future-readiness among organizations and individuals. Currently serving as an adjunct instructor at NYU Shanghai, Lin is a sought-after speaker at prestigious institutions such as Tongji University and Tsinghua University. Meanwhile, she actively contributes to the global futures community through her thought leadership and practical expertise.
Sébastien Lombard
Trained as an engineer, with a career spanning more than 20 years in the space sector, Sébastien Lombard is currently the head of foresight studies at the Centre Centre National d’Études Spatiales (CNES), the French space agency. After gaining hands-on experience in the 2000s, working on Ariane 4 and Ariane 5 launch operations at Arianespace, he moved into the design engineering sector. He then worked for various entities in the space and defense sectors as a design engineer, project manager or expert. In 2011, he joined CNES as a launch system reliability expert, before taking over responsibility for operational safety and quality activities in 2017. Since 2021, he has been in charge of foresight activities within the strategy department of CNES, the agency responsible for developing and proposing France’s national and European space policy to the government. CNES is historically at the origin of Europe’s Ariane launcher systems and France’s SPOT observation satellite systems. CNES activities cover access to space (rockets), civil and security/defense satellite applications (telecommunications/connectivity, Earth observation, geolocation), space exploration and science, with a focus on space regulation, economic competitiveness, sovereignty, international cooperation and environmental issues.
Frédéric Motte
Frédéric Motte is a socially committed industrialist. Aged 59, he is married with two children. On the entrepreneurial front, he is co-creator and partner of Cedres Industries, an industrial subcontracting group present throughout France. With his family, he also revived the Motte-Cordonnier breweries, founded in Armentières in 1650. On the political front, he has held several posts as mayor (Beaucamps-Ligny) and community councillor in Lille. Since July 2022, he has been a member of the executive of the Hauts-de-France Regional Council, a representative for the Transformation of the Regional Economy and Chairman of the Rev3 mission. He was also President of CESER Nord-Pas-de-Calais and President of MEDEF Lille Métropole and Medef Nord-Pas-de-Calais, as well as Deputy Vice-President of MEDEF national.
Gaël Quéinnec
Gaël Quéinnec is an independent corporate futurist and consultant. He previously created and headed the Michelin Group’s Foresight department from 2016 to 2024, after having held a number of business strategy positions for the same group: Commercial Strategy Director for South America, Africa, Middle East, the Mining and Construction business and Euromaster, a European chain of garages Drawing on his twofold experience as a business leader and strategic futurist, he now helps companies to translate foresight work into concrete plans for transformation and innovation. As a generalist-futurist, he is particularly interested in the future of mobility, people and goods, geopolitics and global geo-economics, and has become a recognized expert reshaping business models and organizations within planetary boundaries. He is a member of the Cercle de l’Expertise à Missions, an advisor to several consulting and executive development firms, a member of the Global Future Society, a technical advisor to the international business circle Research & Prospective 50, and a lecturer at several business schools.
Michel Saloff-Coste
Michel Saloff-Coste was appointed Special Advisor to the presidency at the Université Catholique de Lille in September 2023. He is the driving force behind the creation of the International Foresight Research Network (IFRN). Michel’s early work focused on the future and transformation of organizations. His aim is to raise public awareness of the major technological, economic, social and ecological transformations taking place today, so that everyone can play a positive role in sustainable development and future civilization. After developing his own firm MSC & Associés between 1995 and 2008, Michel Saloff-Coste joined In Principo between 2010 and 2020 to develop research and international relations. In 2014, Michel Saloff-Coste became Scientific Director of the International Institute for Foresight Studies on Innovative Ecosystems at the Université Catholique de Lille, then Director of Foresight Studies from 2021 to 2023. He was the International Development Associate of the Copenhagen Institut for Futures Studies from 2015 to 2020. He is also the author of a dozen works on foresight. In recent years, he has conducted a major study of the world’s 17 most important innovative ecosystems, analyzing the scientific, artistic, cultural and philosophical developments that are taking place there. He has published Innovation Ecosystems (ISTE Ltd and John Wiley & Sons, 2022) and Futures, the Great Turn ( Ltd and John Wiley & Sons, 2023) with Carine Dartiguepeyrou.
Introduction
It is often said that the idea for a new book comes when you have just finished one. That is what happened with this book. At the end of Futures: The Great Turn, we felt the pressing need to continue this collective adventure with a book dedicated to futures in action. This follows in the footsteps of the 15 or so books we have produced over the last 20 years, often collectively, which aim to highlight the link between leadership and anticipation (Le dirigeant du 3e millénaire, Le DRH du 3e millénaire, Les horizons du futur, Prospective d’un monde en mutation, Les voies de la résilience, etc.).
In addition, as Carine Dartiguepeyrou has been running seminars for leaders on strategic foresight for several years, we wanted to highlight the different ways of approaching the future, this time, however, starting from the experience of organizations. This book is also an extension of our foresight research seminars, initiated at the Université Catholique de Lille, and now perpetuated in a network of practitioners and researchers, known as the International Foresight Research Network (IFRN).
Foresight is part of the broader field of futures studies. The study of the future is represented by various schools of thought and disciplines, and features a variety of tools that often overlap. The World Futures Studies Federation defines futures studies as “an art and science, with a strong emphasis on imagination and creativity in the creation of different possible futures. Its main objective is to discover and master complex chains of cause and effect through conceptualization, a systemic approach and feedback loops, in order to innovate in social and technological fields”1. Futures studies has been recognized as a discipline since the 1960s.
The concept of “futures in action” discussed in this book highlights the links between foresight, strategy, innovation and organizational transformation. Foresight enables us to anticipate possible changes in the environment and define visions for the future. Strategy involves choosing the objectives to be reached and the means to be used to achieve them. We speak of innovation, because it enables organizations to adapt, as well as organizational transformation, which supports this adaptation. All of these concepts interact and complement one another. This book not only highlights how to think about the future, but also how to make it happen. Futures in action emphasizes the operational and pragmatic aspect of foresight, such as how to select and mobilize players, assess results, influence strategic decisions, drive innovation and organizational development, and influence the future of an industry.
Just as there is not only one future, but many, there are different ways of imagining or building the future of your organization. The indicative common questionnaire invited contributors to share their tools of foresight and experiences, how their organization is orchestrated, the advantages and hurdles of practicing foresight, as well as their backgrounds and sources of inspiration. Our warmest thanks to all.
This book is being released at a time when foresight is experiencing a new dynamic. Global challenges are such that the analysis of far-reaching changes and the search for weak signals have become a necessity to inform action. In a VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity) world, anticipation is no longer a nice-to-have, but a must-have. Humanity must be able to better understand its history in order to shed light on present realities and consider the future in all its forms, whether they be possible or dystopian futures, opportunities or risks.
Michel Saloff-Coste highlights four planetary mega-risks: the first, which is well known, is the atomic bomb; the second is global warming; the third is the collapse of biodiversity; and the fourth, more recent, is the misuse of artificial intelligence (AI). These four risks combined in a systemic way could put an end to the human species on our planet. This is why it is imperative to develop our capacity for anticipation and foresight, so as to better understand the risks and find operational solutions to reduce their impact.
We find that in the culture of futures studies, the integral approach is a practiced way of imagining tomorrow’s human and their environment, which is not always the case in the traditional corporate approach. Foresight calls on all forms of intelligence, both rational and emotional, as well as on the senses. The personalities who have contributed to this book have shared their own culture of anticipation. We are proud that 10 men and 10 women have contributed to this book. Some are just starting out in foresight; others are very advanced, even pioneers, in their field.
The general reference section at the end of this book brings together the references provided by the contributors and seeks to highlight their works and publications. It is not exhaustive on the subject – we could have given a more detailed overview – but it offers an international perspective on the subject.
This book would not have been possible without the support and enthusiasm for this new project of our publisher ISTE –Wiley and, in particular, Chantal Ammi, director of the “Innovation and Technology” set of books. It was written with the support of the general management of the Université Catholique de Lille, Patrick Scaufflaire, its president-rector, and Jean-Marc Assié, its deputy general manager. The Université Catholique de Lille is convinced of the strategic importance of foresight and develops innovative and large-scale projects to determine the future of its institution. We offer our warmest thanks to them.
This book is divided into three parts. First, a presentation of the contributors and a general Introduction. Second, contributions from various organizations, which we have grouped into four parts according to the type of organization: futurists, practitioners of foresight in companies or public bodies, universities and, lastly, local authorities. The third part of the book presents a prospective analysis and summary of the elements that emerge from all the contributions and puts them into perspective. The reference section focuses on the works of the authors and contributors to this book, as well as the references they recommend. Although it is substantial, the reference section is intended to be selective.
The first part is dedicated to futurists, with an international aspect. We wanted to start with the renowned Sirkka Heinonen, who is a reference in the field of foresight. She is one of the great ambassadors of futures studies. She combines teaching, research and consultancy for various Finnish and international institutions. Finland plays a very special role in foresight research, constantly innovating and experimenting with different ways of using futures in public policy-making. Fawaz Abu Sitta, whom we met at a meeting of the Turku Futures Conference, also holds a singular vision of foresight, aiming for the very long term, which is relatively rare. He teaches in Dubai and Oxford, is very active in foresight networks (notably UNESCO) and advises governmental and international institutions. He will illustrate his systemic vision of foresight with a project on the future of tourism. Sylvia Gallusser, a Californian by adoption with a passion for technology, has also developed her own foresight method. She works with major corporations and will be sharing a project with us on the future of journalism and media based on AI. In addition, we have invited Lynn Lin and Bin Hu, two associates and young Chinese futurists, who use trend analysis to support innovation with major corporations and, more generally, through the FuturistCircle, seek to promote the practice of foresight in China. To complete this international vision of foresight, researcher, speaker and trainer Carine Dartiguepeyrou will share her experience and practice of foresight in action in France and abroad.
The second part is devoted to the implementation of foresight in companies. We spoke to Gaël Quéinnec, who helped shape Michelin’s foresight department into what it is today. This French company, with its international activities, is recognized for its forward-looking vision and its own analysis of megatrends, and is a source of inspiration for other companies, even if it has an internal primary objective of informing the group’s strategy. Virginie Alonzi has taken over as Head of Strategic Foresight at Bouygues Construction from her previous role as Director of Sustainable Development. Her mission is to define the impact of major trends on the group’s activities. The foresight department is a team that provides internal strategic support, but also participates in numerous external associative networks. Foresight is seen by her company as a way of committing to bringing about desirable, economically and socially inspiring and ecologically sustainable futures. Cecilia Ercoli’s contribution gives us a glimpse of the link between anticipation and innovation through her experience at a major luxury brand. Her approach to the future of tradition is very unique, rooted in the lived experience of employees and operational staff. Audrey Hespel’s emphasis on sensitivity, inspiration and presence is in line with her practice at Decathlon, a major French brand with a global reach. It is about inventing a maieutic approach to shed light on Decathlon’s prospects based on a collaborative approach with employees.
As the only public institution represented, we have included the Centre national d’études spatiales (National Center for Space Studies) in this section. Sébastien Lombard shared a French-style approach to foresight, with two focuses: one on external stakeholders and the other focus more specifically being internal and confidential, linked to the evolution of space over the long term.
The third part illustrates futures in action at three French universities. In a context where foresight for the future of education and research remains limited in France, the experiences of the Université Catholique de Lille and the Université de Strasbourg appear to be rare and unique. They are based on very different ways of doing things, with different timescales and scopes of action. The Université Catholique de Lille is a pioneer in having established a foresight department at the very heart of the school’s strategic management, in having developed its own body of foresight, and in projecting itself in France and abroad over the very long term. The foresight approach was used at the Université Catholique de Lille through the merging of three documentation services. At the Université de Strasbourg, foresight facilitates the implementation of strategic projects to execute the institution’s vision.
The fourth and final section highlights a number of foresight initiatives in different regions. The Lyon urban community is recognized as the first French inter-municipality, or local authority, to have set up a foresight department to support the future of the Lyon area. Having become a metropolis and merged with the department, Grand Lyon now produces a wide range of foresight studies, with the aim of reporting to both elected representatives and civil society. There are considerable external communication tools and resources to facilitate public debate. Pierre Houssais has been head of this department for a decade and has shared his experience with us. The Isère territory experience is interesting, as the prospective approach was implemented by the administration on the initiative of its General Manager, Séverine Battin, as part of the administration project, and therefore over a relatively short timeframe. The Hauts-de-France region, on the other hand, is deploying a long-term economic and social project. Territorial dynamics aim to promote job creation and the economic appeal of the Hauts-de-France region. Foresight approaches fuel and maintain this dynamic at various points. Elected representatives like Frédéric Motte are committed to the relevance of this approach, well beyond their political mandates. In the last part of this book, Jean-Jacques Lasserre, President of the Pyrénées-Atlantiques department, describes the first steps in a foresight approach that is driven and defined by elected officials. We were fortunate to be able to provide methodological support for this approach from the outset. It is an interesting case study, based on a political approach, and not just a technical one; and it has brought together a panel of stakeholders who are working on how to bring about a desired future of greater social cohesion in 2040 in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques.
