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- Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
- Kategorie: Geisteswissenschaft
- Serie: ISTE Consignment
- Sprache: Englisch
There are currently over eight billion people on Earth: how did we arrive at the current distribution of humans on the planet? What shape is it taking, and how will it evolve?
This book proposes an original answer to this, which is based on the explicit desire to place settlement at the heart of its questioning, by varying the level of analysis from global to local. After recalling how humans colonized the entire planet, this book presents their current distribution, which is predominantly urban.
Population dynamics (birth rate, death rate and migration) are driving changes – including the demographic decline of certain regions – which are presented and explained from the angle of residential mobility and international migration, as well as the impact of ongoing climate change. Global Settlement Dynamics concludes with a discussion of the future of these settlements, based on data from the United Nations, and the question of the sustainability of human settlements on Earth.
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Table of Contents
Cover
Table of Contents
Title Page
Copyright Page
Introduction
1 History of World Population and Settlement
1.1. From the primitive African cradle to world “conquest”
1.2. The era of agrarian civilizations
1.3. Demographic transition and repopulation
1.4. Contemporary demographic and urban explosion and the new settlement map
1.5. Conclusion
1.6. References
2 World Population Distribution Today
2.1. Introduction
2.2. Data and methods
2.3. Analysis of the current world population distribution
2.4. Factors explaining the world population distribution
2.5. Processes contributing to the evolution of population distribution
2.6. Conclusion
2.7. References
3 An Urban World
3.1. Introduction:
city
or
urban center
?
3.2. Deciphering the urban world from the rural world
3.3. Measurement and excess in the urban world
3.4. Contemporary forms and dynamics of urban settlement
3.5. Conclusion
3.6. References
4 Population Decline in a Growing World
4.1. Introduction
4.2. Population decline: theoretical elements
4.3. A granular vision of the population decline in the world
4.4. Case studies to identify geographic characteristics of population decline
4.5. Conclusion: towards a retreat of the Ecumene?
4.6. References
5 Residential Mobility and Settlement Dynamics
5.1. Introduction
5.2. Residential mobility: conceptual elements
5.3. Panorama of residential mobility dynamics
5.4. Differentiated developments
5.5. Conclusion
5.6. References
6 Populations in Motion: How is Global Settlement Being Redefined?
6.1. Introduction
6.2. Global migration in the 21st century
6.3. International migration and settlement logics
6.4. Conclusion
6.5. References
7 Migration, Environmental and Climate Change
7.1. Introduction
7.2. Understanding the complex and multidimensional relationships of the link between environmental change and migration
7.3. The Golden Age of empirical case studies or the pragmatic approach to grasping the complexity of the migration–environment link
7.4. Conclusion
7.5. References
8 Population Projections on a Global Scale
8.1. United Nations’ projections
8.2. Unequal population evolution
8.3. A population distribution that fluctuates but exhibits regularities
8.4. Conclusion
8.5. References
Conclusion
List of Authors
Index
End User License Agreement
List of Tables
Chapter 1
Table 1.1. World population estimation (in millions of inhabitants) from the m...
Table 1.2. World population evolution since 1950 (in millions of inhabitants)....
Chapter 2
Table 2.1. Total population, urban population and proportion of urban populati...
Chapter 3
Table 3.1. Urban population according to the minimum population threshold of t...
Table 3.2. Level of urbanization according to the minimum population threshold...
Table 3.3. Number of agglomerations and human settlements in 2010 (source: Geo...
Table 3.4. Density of agglomerations (inhabitants/km
2
) in 2010 (a) not calcula...
Table 3.5. Area covered by agglomerations (km
2
) in 2010 (a) internal waters ex...
Chapter 5
Table 5.1. Spatial mobility system (from Kaufmann 2000)
Chapter 6
Table 6.1. Foreign-born residents in the United States during 2010–2021 by con...
Table 6.2. Foreign-born residents in the United States during stages 2010–2021...
Chapter 8
Table 8.1. Ranking of the 10 most populous countries according to the median s...
List of Illustrations
Chapter 1
Figure 1.1. World population by major regions from year 1 to 1950.
Chapter 2
Figure 2.1. Date of the last census. Mollweide equal-areaprojection. Data sou...
Figure 2.2. Estimated number of people per 1 km x 1 km pixel for the year 2020...
Figure 2.3. Moran’s I index for local spatial autocorrelation of population de...
Figure 2.4. Map illustrating population distribution based on latitude and lon...
Figure 2.5. Relative differences in population density by commune in Portugal ...
Figure 2.6. Asian high density loop (source: Durand-Dastès (2015))
Chapter 3
Figure 3.1. Evolution of the number of urban prefecture-cities (dìjí shì) in C...
Figure 3.2. Division of a territory: accentuation or elimination of disparitie...
Figure 3.3. The urban footprint of Antanarivo in 2015. Source: AFRICApolis, ge...
Figure 3.4. The rank-size distribution of the top 1,000 agglomerations in 2010...
Figure 3.5. (a) Cluster of office buildings in downtown Boston, USA (photograp...
Chapter 4
Figure 4.1. Demographic equation.
Figure 4.2. Descriptive model of demographic transition.
Figure 4.3. World demographic dynamics (2000–2020). Author: Doignon (2020). Da...
Figure 4.4. Population evolution of the studied countries (1950–2020). Author:...
Figure 4.5. Demographic dynamics in Japan (2005–2015). Author: Doignon (2020)....
Figure 4.6. Demographic dynamics in Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary (1971–2011)....
Figure 4.7. Demographic trajectories in France (1968–2009). From Oliveau and D...
Chapter 5
Figure 5.1. Percentage of individuals who relocated within the same NUTS3 regi...
Figure 5.2. Annual residential mobility in the United States (1948–2016) (sour...
Figure 5.3. Residential mobility in the Global South
Figure 5.4. Intra-provincial residential mobility
Figure 5.5. Inter-provincial residential mobility (assembled from WorldPop map...
Chapter 6
Figure 6.1. Continental migration patterns for the period 2010ߝ2020 (source: K...
Chapter 7
Figure 7.1. The different terms used to characterize migratory logics related ...
Figure 7.2. Chronological timeline of estimates and projections cited in the l...
Figure 7.3. The conceptual framework of environmentally influenced migration (...
Figure 7.4. Definitions, measurements, different scales: the impossible summar...
Chapter 8
Figure 8.1. World population according to the 2019 revision of the United Nati...
Figure 8.2. Anamorphic map of the world population in 2020 according to the me...
Figure 8.3. Anamorphic map of the world population in 2100 according to the me...
Figure 8.4. Evolution of the center of gravity of global settlement between 20...
Figure 8.5. Changes in population size between 2020 and 2100 under the median ...
Figure 8.6. Age pyramids in 2020 and 2100.
Figure 8.7. Population change in Nigeria and Brazil based on United Nations pr...
Figure 8.8. Anamorphic map of the world population in 2100 based on the lower ...
Figure 8.9. Anamorphic map of the world population in 2100 based on the higher...
Figure 8.10. Rankings of the most populous countries according to high and low...
Guide
Cover Page
Table of Contents
Title Page
Copyright Page
Introduction
Begin Reading
Conclusion
List of Authors
Index
WILEY END USER LICENSE AGREEMENT
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SCIENCES
Geography and Demography, Field Director – Denise Pumain
Demography, Subject Head – Brigitte Baccaïni
Global Settlement Dynamics
How People Inhabit the World
Coordinated by
Yoann Doignon
Sébastien Oliveau
First published 2024 in Great Britain and the United States by ISTE Ltd and John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, this publication may only be reproduced, stored or transmitted, in any form or by any means, with the prior permission in writing of the publishers, or in the case of reprographic reproduction in accordance with the terms and licenses issued by the CLA. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside these terms should be sent to the publishers at the undermentioned address:
ISTE Ltd27-37 St George’s RoadLondon SW19 4EUUK
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John Wiley & Sons, Inc.111 River StreetHoboken, NJ 07030USA
www.wiley.com
© ISTE Ltd 2024The rights of Céline Merlin-Brogniart to be identified as the author of this work have been asserted by her in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s), contributor(s) or editor(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of ISTE Group.
Library of Congress Control Number: 2024943301
British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication DataA CIP record for this book is available from the British LibraryISBN 978-1-78945-182-5
ERC code:SH7 Human Mobility, Environment, and Space SH7_1 Human, economic and social geography SH7_2 Migration SH7_3 Population dynamics: households, family and fertility
Introduction
Sébastien OLIVEAU1and Yoann DOIGNON2,3
1Mesopolhis, UMR 7064, CNRS, Université d’Aix-Marseille, France
2IDEES, UMR 6266, CNRS, Rouen, France
3Center for Demographic Research, UCLouvain, Belgium
The distribution of human populations across the surface of the planet is not random. Some areas are nearly uninhabited, while others contain a significant portion of humanity. The study of this distribution occurs at various scales, ranging from global to very local, but it is primarily the disparities in population density that leave a lasting impression. Indeed, densities vary significantly across different spaces, with the least populated rural areas sometimes dropping below three inhabitants per square kilometer (hbts/km2), while certain urban zones may exceed 30,000 hbts/km2. These disparities are evident universally and at all scales: between continents, countries, regions within a country, urban and rural areas, as well as between city centers and peripheries. For instance, we can think of the stark contrast between the Egyptian desert and the capital city (Oliveau et al. 2020). However, marked disparities are also observed elsewhere globally. In France, rural densities can fall below 15 hbts/km2, whereas Paris boasts more than 20,000. In India, the Kashmir region has a density of 22 hbts/km2, contrasting sharply with Mumbai, which is 1,000 times more densely populated, etc.
These disparities in population distribution, referred to as settlement, constitute a crucial aspect of societal functioning. However, settlement goes beyond mere density inequalities, encompassing various forms of population distribution. Populations can be dispersed or concentrated across territories, and this dynamic operates at different scales. One region may be distinguished by a scattering of sparsely populated yet dense villages, while another region may exhibit medium density but dispersed habitation. Conversely, in certain instances, metropolises are situated amidst human deserts, as exemplified by Brasília with its 3 million inhabitants in the heart of the Amazon.
The settlement, as we understand it, stands as a significant challenge in the planning of societies’ territories, meaning their organization and future development. Settlement is a complex subject, arising from demographic dynamics encompassing factors – fertility, mortality and migration – and geographical constraints that have either facilitated or hindered population accumulation (including factors like accessibility of locations, available resources, and environmental quality, etc.); it is shaped by the social and spatial processes involved in its assessment and utilization, processes that have undergone substantial variations throughout historical periods.
At the intersection of geography and demography, the study of settlement is crucial for a thorough understanding of societies and their challenges. The issue of mobility is a pervasive theme in our analysis, examined from various angles, including its impact on population distribution, contemporary dynamics and associated challenges. Mobility influences settlement patterns on all scales: within territories, bridging rural and urban areas, within cities, and between regions and countries, tracing back to the dawn of humanity. Population aging also emerges as a significant factor in population change, influencing both the composition of places, exemplified by the evolution of certain urban districts, and the dynamics of regions experiencing depopulation. The question of the sustainability of settlement in specific territories is then raised. Lastly, climate change raises questions, acknowledging its anticipated impact on population distribution, albeit with challenges in accurate assessments. In conclusion, while acknowledging the need for caution in interpreting projections, the exercise of prospective analysis remains intellectually invigorating for contemplating the future of territories. Consequently, it is apt that we conclude our reflection by attempting to project ourselves into the conclusion of this century.
It is within this framework that we have orchestrated this book, with the aim of providing a comprehensive synthesis on the subject of settlement. The book is dedicated to presenting a global perspective on settlement, employing multiscale analyses to underscore both the commonalities and the unique characteristics within the observed configurations. The overall progression of the book explores how contemporary human societies populate Earth.
Therefore, it is only logical that Pierre-Jean Thumerelle elucidates how humans left their African origins to eventually inhabit the entire planet in Chapter 1. The temporal dynamics of these movements initially underscore the significant inertia characterizing global-scale settlement, and this stands as a key takeaway from the book: current observed population concentrations typically result from ancient accumulations of populations (see Chapters 3 and 6). Nevertheless, the modern era introduces striking bifurcations in specific locations. Geopolitical and economic forces have the potential to induce rapid and substantial changes. The colonization of the American continent, pioneer frontiers in tropical regions, mining activities, and more recently, the concentration of capital in metropolises are all factors that have disrupted population distribution at global, regional and local scales.
Catherine Linard and Florence de Longueville demonstrate how humanity currently occupies the planet in Chapter 2. Following the definition of the ecumene’s extent, they provide a measurement. The complexity of the sources required for this endeavor is outlined, allowing us to visualize its scope. However, human occupation is dynamic, and they help in raising awareness of the ongoing dynamics, encompassing not only nocturnal and seasonal aspects but also those of longer duration.
The distribution of humans on a global scale is initially marked by significant heterogeneity but is also characterized by immense diversity. While rural housing exhibits a variety of forms (Lebeau 1969), urban housing, having become predominant in recent decades, introduces new complexities. François Moriconi-Ebrard and Joan Perez concentrate on this specific settlement pattern to underscore its intricate nature in Chapter 3. The definition stage remains challenging but indispensable. The authors guide us in distinguishing cities from urban areas, articulating the implications of conceptualizing in terms of agglomerations, metropolization, etc. They emphasize the impact of varying definitions (across authors and countries) on the perception and understanding of the phenomenon. The adoption of standardized definitions and databases becomes imperative, facilitating effective international comparisons. Nevertheless, despite cities currently constituting the predominant habitat globally, they exhibit substantial diversity, both in terms of physical attributes (morphology) and demographic trajectories, as eloquently illustrated in this chapter. The chapter concludes by examining the manifestations of demographic and/or spatial decline in certain cities, a phenomenon that prompts reflection in the context of demographic and spatial growth that appeared boundless in the 20th century.
One of the questions addressed in Chapter 3 pertains to the depopulation of specific cities. In Chapter 4, Yoann Doignon extends this inquiry to encompass all spaces (both urban and rural) on a global scale: How does depopulation manifest? What roles do different components of the demographic equation (fertility, mortality, migration) play? Which regions of the world experience depopulation, and to what extent? By presenting a granular perspective at the subnational level through a 15–20 km tile map, the chapter underscores that depopulation can occur even in countries with population growth. Is it conceivable that the ecumene is receding?
Subsequently, the book delves into population movements within spaces, reshaping the distribution of settlement. Chapter 5 specifically explores the intricacies of population mobility at the most granular level – residential movements of households. Frédéric Audard and Samuel Carpentier-Postel revisit the concepts used to characterize this phenomenon, providing a global overview that contemplates the diversity of situations. These situations underscore, on the one hand, the influence of the individual life cycle, highlighting that relocation patterns vary with age. On the other hand, they underscore that the economic conditions of households are also a crucial factor for understanding these patterns. Presently, it is observed that, for over half a century, there has been significant diversification in personal, family and professional trajectories. This diversification leads to distinct settlement methods and prompts reflection on our ability to define it in a world where phenomena such as multi-residence or teleworking complicate its understanding.
In Chapter 6, Philippe Venier and Sébastien Oliveau present a quantitative synthesis of global migrations to facilitate our comprehension of their impacts on settlement patterns. What is the scale of these migrations? Are they reconfiguring major settlement areas worldwide? What are the repercussions of migrations on a more localized level? These are challenging questions to address, given the diversity of sources and the interpretative nature of the data. Nevertheless, a geography of migrations is taking shape, shedding light on anticipated transformations.
One of the most significant anticipated human upheavals is undoubtedly climate change, whose reality becomes more pronounced each year (IPCC 2023). Marion Borderon endeavors to examine its impact on settlement in Chapter 7. The author highlights the complexity of measuring the effects of climate change on societies in a world where the determinants of behaviors, such as migration, are numerous. Following a literature review that elucidates these conceptual challenges, the author presents numerous findings to underscore, in her words, that many pieces of the puzzle are still missing.
While the exercise of foresight is always delicate, it is rich in lessons and aids in envisioning the future. Élise Lévêque, Quentin Godoye and Dieynaba Ndour collectively explore potential futures for global settlement in Chapter 8. Following the presentation of UN projections and the underlying scenarios, they offer a projection of the potential evolution of the world population and, consequently, the changes that global settlement might undergo by the end of the century. Demographic phenomena exhibit significant inertia: fertility generally undergoes changes over multiple decades, and mortality, barring safety or health-related accidents, experiences slow variations. Nonetheless, substantial shifts in trajectories are anticipated, such as the (re)emergence of certain African regions as major global population centers, a reduction in China’s demographic weight, etc.
The Conclusion of the book provides a comprehensive overview of all the preceding chapters. In this context, the authors acknowledge the limitations of the book, which omitted local forms of housing, especially in rural areas, as well as more specific settlement patterns such as nomadism. There are, however, interesting aspects to discuss regarding these forms of settlement, both in so-called northern countries (Acker 2021) and in southern countries (Choplin and Lombard 2014). Subsequently, the authors revisit the insights gleaned from the book and discuss what they allow us to contemplate from a prospective standpoint, prompting reflection on the forthcoming challenges in settlement patterns.
References
Acker, W. (2021).
Où sont les “gens du voyage” ?
Éditions du commun, Rennes.
Choplin, A. and Lombard, J. (2014). On west African roads: Everyday mobility and exchanges between Mauritania, Senegal and Mali.
Canadian Journal of African Studies/Revue canadienne des études africaines
, 48(1), 59–75.
IPCC (2023). Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (eds)). IPCC, Geneva.
Lebeau, R. (1969).
Les grands types de structures agraires dans le monde
. Masson, Paris.
Oliveau, S., Doignon, Y., Blöss-Widmer, I. (2023). Population distribution: Follow the Nile. In
An Atlas of Contemporary Egypt
, Bennafla, K. and Bayoumi, H. (eds). CNRS Editions, Paris. doi: 10.4000/books.editionscnrs. 58390.
1History of World Population and Settlement
Pierre-Jean THUMERELLE
Université de Lille, France
Classical geography regarded settlement as the fundamental expression of the humanization of natural environments by successive civilizations, shaped by their needs, capacities and aspirations, each contingent on the achievements of those that preceded it. It placed significant emphasis on founding acts, natural conditions and phenomena evolving over an extended period. In contrast, contemporary geography views settlement as a cumulative process and a stratification of occupations and developments. However, it shifts its focus towards the dialectic between the inertia of legacies and the current forces of change, encompassing various facets and contradictions (economic, demographic, social, political, etc.). This involves the alteration of population densities and the redefinition of territories based on emerging lifestyles and organizational structures. In all cases, the concept of settlement reflects the intricate relationship between space and time, geography and history.
The study of population and settlement requires substantial statistical, cartographic and methodological apparatus, making the exercise increasingly uncertain as we delve into the past. How can we refer to it for periods when the concepts of settlement, and even more so of population, did not exist and when the counting of individuals was considered taboo, and the representation and appropriation of space held meanings vastly different from contemporary understandings? Depending on the continent, modern censuses, allowing the counting of all individuals (or almost all) and linking them to places of residence, are available only from the end of the 18th century at best, and at worst from the second half of the 20th century. For the preceding one hundred thousand years or more, only fragmentary data is accessible: initially, the identification of sporadic traces of individuals or small human groups dispersed in a dominant natural environment during the oldest periods; then, the delimitation of unevenly and irregularly occupied territories, with extrapolations on the number of occupants, as soon as societies organized their living space into fields, villages and cities; finally, the counting of men, carried out discontinuously and implemented in varying ways according to countries and periods, emerged with the birth of states, driven by the need to account for their resources and populations.
1.1. From the primitive African cradle to world “conquest”
1.1.1. The approximately one hundred or two hundred thousand years before sedentarization
The refinement of techniques (such as absolute dating and genetic profiling of human fossils) cannot compensate for the scarcity of evidence left by the most ancient prehistory. The sporadic discoveries of skeletal fragments, contingent on the uncertainties of exploration and the preservation of remains, indicate the presence of distant ancestors in specific locations. However, they do not offer insight into the real occupation of geographical space, let alone the density of this occupation and its variations.
The extensive Homo erectus family – which has left traces of its existence for a million or more years across much of the Old World – likely evolved into several species almost simultaneously. These species were sufficiently close to allow for hybridization, as seen in instances like Homo neandertalensis and Homo denisova in Eurasia, and Homo sapiens in Africa. Until the discovery of fossils of Homo sapiens antecessor (archaic) in other African locations, East Africa was believed to be the sole cradle of the latter approximately 150,000 years ago (for a detailed modeling, refer to Coupé et al. (2018)).
The often-cited figure is approximately half a million Homo sapiens in Africa at the time when, during the interglacial periods, they initiated the colonization of the rest of the world. However, this colonization was carried out by only a few thousand individuals, as indicated by the remarkably low genetic variability observed in European and Asian populations. The mechanisms of their migrations remain a topic of ongoing discussion. The presence of Homo sapiens is conclusively established approximately –70,000 in the Middle East, –60,000 in Central and South Asia, –50,000 years in Indonesia, Australia and the Far East, –40,000 years in Europe and –15,000 years in America (with a potentially ephemeral presence 35,000 years ago in the northwest of this continent). The more remote islands and the harshest environments were occupied much later: between –2,000 and +1,000 for the islands of Oceania or the West Indies, and approximately –500 for Tibet or Scandinavia.
Beyond Africa, Homo sapiens had to coexist with other more ancient human species. All lived in small groups of opportunistic and nomadic predators, whose geographical expansion was influenced by the fluctuations of glaciation. Contrary to the long-held belief from a Darwinian perspective that Homo sapiens eliminated the supposedly competing species, it is now thought that these species were decimated by diseases introduced by the new arrivals (similar to the impact on Native Americans with the arrival of conquistadors) or disappeared due to the effects of climate change. Undernourished due to the scarcity of large food fauna, these groups, weakened, dispersed and insufficient in number, could no longer ensure their reproduction. Homo sapiens, being much more prolific, thus became the sole representative of the human species even before the peak of the last glaciation.
1.1.2. Hypothetical Upper Paleolithic settlement
Throughout the Ice Age, the expanse of the ecumene was marked by the fairly abrupt alternation of cold and dry periods and milder intervals. In Europe and Asia, hunting territories expanded during temperate interglacial episodes or contracted during glacial advances that significantly enlarged polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers. In Africa and South Asia, these changes rendered the same areas alternately dry or desert-like, and then wet, grassy or forested. Additionally, variations in sea levels withdrew waters or submerged vast coastal areas.
The natural environment supplied both the sustenance and the materials essential for crafting tools and various objects used in daily life. However, it could only cater to the needs of small, highly mobile communities within expansive territories. This mode of organization was necessitated by the depletion of resources around regularly reoccupied habitats (such as rock shelters on the valley’s edge) or temporary camps, the requirement for the procurement of flint, wood, woody stems, etc., and, most importantly, the seasonal migrations of their game. The distribution of humans closely correlated with the vast grassy cold steppes and subtropical savannahs where the large mammals, comprising the mainstay of their diet, roamed.
To estimate the population during the Late Glacial period, we generally turn to the scientifically observed hunter-gatherer populations in various environments at the time of their initial encounters with modern civilization, such as the Indians of Newfoundland, the Aborigines of Tasmania, the Papuans of New Guinea, etc. Their densities seldom exceeded one inhabitant per 100 km2 (approximately 5,000 times less than the current Earth’s average population density: 50 in/km2 in 2016). Densities may have been slightly higher in Africa and South Asia (it is probable that one in 10 people lived in the intertropical zone and its margins). Conversely, Europe and the remaining parts of Asia, partially covered by ice, could support only a few thousand people. The population of America was likely equally minimal.
1.1.3. Agriculture, sedentarization and the first demographic revolution
The warming, initiated approximately –12,000, and the accompanying increase in humidity have shaped a new environment. The forest has significantly expanded, encroaching upon previously grassy plateaus, the associated megafauna has become scarce or extinct, and this transformation has disrupted the way of life for populations dependent on these environments. While some nomadic groups followed the northward shift of tundras and savannahs, elsewhere, the nature of the predation economy underwent a transformation. Most Mesolithic hunter-gatherers abandoned the vast plateaus in favor of valleys where small game and, more importantly, edible plant products, which had become the primary food sources, were more abundant. These communities facilitated the regrowth of plant species they heavily consumed (through practices like burning, soil clearance and removal of competing species), improved their tools and developed techniques for conserving harvests, particularly through the use of pottery. The provision of more regular and abundant food quickly had effects on population size. Mortality undoubtedly decreased, and fertility likely increased.
Between –10,000 and –6,000, these practices led to the emergence of true agriculture, fundamentally based on a few selected and improved cereals such as wheat, barley, millet, rice, and the domestication of poultry, goats, sheep, etc. The new economic system required the permanence of agrarian spaces and regular labor, thus necessitating a large and sedentary workforce. The case of Central America, isolated from the Old World, where agriculture based on maize developed, implies spontaneous developments in multiple regions. However, the Middle East holds the oldest traces of cultivated lands, villages and cities, as exemplified by Jericho in Israel. The Neolithic Revolution thrived much earlier in areas regularly enriched by the overflows of major rivers, such as the valleys of Mesopotamia, the Nile, the Indus, the Ganges, the Huang He, the Chang Yang, etc., compared to drier lands where agriculture remained itinerant and sparsely practiced, alongside nomadic livestock breeding.
This agricultural practice did not extend to the Mediterranean World before the sixth millennium BCE, inner Europe before the fourth, and Northern Europe before the beginning of our era. It appears to have been introduced by new populations rather than through cultural diffusion. Genetic analyses of skeletons recovered from Neolithic burials have revealed that in Europe and South Asia, agriculture was gradually propagated by immigrants originating from the Middle East. These newcomers likely displaced or assimilated existing hunter-gatherer populations. The analyses identified three migration waves. One, associated with the megaliths, would have colonized the shores of the Mediterranean and then spread to the Atlantic and the North Sea. Another would have influenced Central Europe through the Danubian route. A third wave would have emanated from Iran, reaching Afghanistan, India and East Asia.
The disparities in population density rapidly and irreversibly widened between the vast territories that remained the domain of hunter-gatherers (later reoccupied by nomads leading migrations of domesticated herds) and the territories that transitioned into agricultural landscapes. The clearings expanded through deforestation, becoming increasingly populated. Fields, plantations, meadows and constructions altered the landscape, creating new ecological, artificial niches for both the human species and domesticated animals. The concentration of populations quickly gave rise to entirely new forms of territorial appropriation and societal organization. Archaeological evidence supports the specialization of activities, an early social hierarchy, warlike conflicts for territorial acquisition, and the emergence of cities, originally serving as places of worship and power rather than centers of commercial exchange.
Table 1.1.World population estimation (in millions of inhabitants) from the most conventional sources
Year
Hyde (2010)
Biraben (1980)
McEvedy and Jones (1978)
Durand (1974)
–8000
5
4
5–10
–4000
28
7
–2000
72
27
–1000
115
50
–200
150
1
188
255
170
270–330
200
202
256
190
400
209
206
190
600
213
206
200
800
240
224
220
1000
295
254
265
275–345
1200
393
400
360
1400
390
374
350
1600
554
579
545
1700
603
679
610
1800
989
954
900
1850
1,263
1,241
1,200
1900
1,654
1,633
1,625
1,650
Because the Neolithic Revolution was not merely the shift from primitive, multi-millennial lifestyles to those of the first agrarian societies, it gave rise to such an effective population growth that it led to an inexorable humanization of the environment. The global population, generally stable during the 20,000 years of the Late Glacial period, began to increase, rising from approximately 5 or 6 million inhabitants around –10,000 to approximately 15 million around –6,000, when Neolithization began spreading beyond the birthplaces of agriculture. Around –4,000, the Earth’s population was estimated to be approximately 30 million, reaching a hundred million by –2,000, after agriculture had widely disseminated, and approximately 250 million at the beginning of our era (Figure 1.1). However, it is crucial to consider the demographic evolution as continuous and irreversible when measured over millennia. At the scale of years and large territorial entities, it unfolded in a highly chaotic manner, punctuated by prolonged contractions.
1.2. The era of agrarian civilizations
1.2.1. The demographic foundation of settlement and its limits
Excess births over deaths, which were highly irregular, often went unnoticed by generations of ancient times, as so few newborns reached adulthood and few adults lived to old age. This demographic pattern, indifferent to changes in civilization, prevailed from the last millennia before our era until the end of the 18th century, when another demographic revolution began, one that was explosive this time and still unfinished. Birth and mortality rates were close to natural levels, with a small and cyclical gap. While a few individuals could reach advanced ages, the average lifespan remained low, fluctuating, and likely did not change much between the Bronze Age and the 18th century. Living conditions, hygiene practices, medical knowledge and traditional pharmacopoeias were insufficient to control infectious diseases and epidemics. Birth control was scarcely more effective than death control, as few couples defied religious prohibitions to practice contraception, even occasionally, using generally ineffective methods. The only constraints were maternal mortality during childbirth, the prolonged duration of breastfeeding, the decline in fertility during periods of scarcity, or social constraints such as celibacy frequency or late marriage. In such a context, populations heavily experienced the fluctuations of the natural and human environment. Recurring food insecurity and endemic diseases, now considered commonplace but significant in the past, were occasionally compounded by calamities leading to depopulation. The causes were akin to contemporary demographic catastrophes: droughts or floods, major regional and global pandemics, and lethal human behaviors (including inequalities in satisfying vital needs, wars, raids, massacres or genocides, and forced displacements). These calamities tended to overlap and magnify their effects, resulting in lasting population declines.
The splendor of the most brilliant pre-industrial civilizations should not be deceptive. All societies in the past relied on an extensive peasantry (85–95% of the workforce) and were closely tied to the resources of the land. However, yields remained very low until the 19th century, despite advancements such as the invention of the ard and animal traction, followed by the plough with moldboard and the hitching collar, improvements in succession planting, irrigation, liming or tillage of soils, and the use of human fertilizer for gardens and market gardens near cities. For a long time, fields were sustainable only in alluvial areas enriched by river silts. In other regions, agricultural practices requiring long soil fallows meant that fallow lands were regularly moved to vast fallow areas, along with wooded lands left for material, fuel and game needs, covering the majority of territories. The expansion of cultivated areas followed any increase in the population (systematic colonization of wild lands by clearing heaths and forests, drainage of inland or coastal marshes, clearing of heaths or forests extending from the territories, etc.). It appears that, as soon as all cultivable lands in a given territory were put into cultivation, insurmountable ecological limits were reached, which are referred to by historians as the Malthusian limits. The reduction of fallow periods due to the absence of new lands to clear and soil depletion made productions highly susceptible to even minor climatic uncertainties. Undernutrition led to a lasting weakening of populations, further sustained by subsequent neglect of land maintenance.
1.2.2. The evolution of human population from Antiquity to the end of the early modern period
Over the past 10 millennia, fluctuations in average temperatures, coupled with changes in rainfall, have only deviated by 1 or 2 degrees from the present, yet they have had significant consequences on harvests. Among the oldest multi-secular cycles, we cite, for example:
the climatic optimum which, approximately –5,000, with an average of 2° higher in summer, 1° in winter and 10% more precipitation than today, allowed the vegetation of the temperate Atlantic zones to extend up to Norway and agriculture to spread in Europe;
the progression of cold and aridity in the Mediterranean Basin and its southern margins which, from –3,000 onwards, caused movements of peoples and has been felt as far as the heart of Africa;
dramatic droughts such as the one that, giving rise to famines, political and social unrest, and political anarchy, definitively eradicated the grassy savannah on which the pyramids had been built in Egypt at the end of the Old Kingdom (approximately –2,200);
a few centuries of mild weather between approximately –200 and 300 which, following a long cold and humid period, benefited Greco-Roman Antiquity (allowing, for example, the widespread cultivation of vines).
At the beginning of the first century CE, the Earth was inhabited by 200–250 million individuals. Half of them resided in East or South Asia, with approximately 70 million in China and 40, possibly 50 million, in India. Plain agriculture, based on millet and green vegetables, had proliferated throughout northern China over the preceding millennia, while wet valley agriculture in southern China, featuring the world’s most extensive agricultural concentration centers, particularly those relying on high-yield rice cultivation – highly demanding in labor but providing two to three harvests annually. The capacity to extract more resources from the same environments (clearing, major hydraulic projects, extensive canal networks) enabled populations to grow to a magnitude that, since Antiquity, facilitated the establishment of a shared civilization across almost the entirety of the Far East, setting the stage for centuries in the distribution of people. The network of villages and towns was already so intricately woven that it underwent less alteration than in Europe due to subsequent densification. Europe, characterized by more rudimentary agriculture and significant forest coverage, likely housed approximately 40 million inhabitants. The Middle East and North Africa supported approximately 50 million inhabitants. For the rest of Africa, an estimate of approximately 20 million, and for America, perhaps 10 million, although no quantifiable data is available for these regions.
An aggressive resurgence of cold and drought, from the 4th to the 8th century, triggered a general demographic decline and significant migrations of peoples, particularly Hunnic and Germanic groups, towards the south and west of Eurasia. Subsequently, the warming trend resumed and, coupled with technological advancements, facilitated a substantial expansion of cultivated lands and agricultural production. This expansion constituted the primary driver behind the significant population growth during the mid-medieval period. Overall, the global population doubled between the 9th and 13th centuries. China’s population reached approximately 120 million inhabitants, the Indian subcontinent had approximately 100 million and Europe had about 80 million.
In the collective memory of France, the few years following the reign of Saint Louis (13th century) have often been regarded as the pinnacle of an era: France, already densely populated during the Gallic era (6–8 million inhabitants) in comparison to neighboring countries, including Italy, is believed to have had approximately 20 million inhabitants, which is a threshold that was not surpassed until the 18th century. This population accounted for a quarter of the European population at that time, including Russia. The vast border forests had disappeared, and all potential agricultural areas had been exploited. The “great clearings” had extended too far into the mountains or at the expense of the woods, leading to a descent in the upper altitude of cultivated lands. The areas that remained forested were protected and expanded in the following century. The framework of the current rural settlement was already established, contributing to the rise of the countryside, which, in turn, facilitated the growth of cities living in close symbiosis with rural areas. A medieval fabric superimposed itself on the older and denser Gallic or Gallo-Roman cities. Although the hierarchy, size and morphology of cities have changed since then, their mesh has barely evolved. Very few French cities with more than 100,000 inhabitants today born after the Middle Ages.
At the end of the 13th century, a new climate deterioration commenced, exacerbated between the 16th century and the early 19th century (Little Ice Age), resulting in summer and winter temperatures 1–2° lower than today. However, its impact on the population was less pronounced than the occurrence of the Black Death in the 14th century – an exceptionally devastating pandemic that became the first to be adequately documented, allowing for the tracking of its progression and consequences. Ancient authors had reported other epidemics, similarly lethal but more confined, such as the Plague of Justinian, which in the 6th century induced a lasting demographic decline in the Mediterranean world and facilitated Arab conquests. Although this disease persisted as more or less endemic in Asia, its resurgence gained momentum in China during the Mongol conquest and the associated upheavals and scarcities. The plague devastated Hubei in 1334 and subsequently spread to neighboring provinces. Carried by the Mongols of the Golden Horde to Crimea and then to all ports of the Mediterranean and the Atlantic, it reached the Middle East, India, North Africa (and most likely sub-Saharan Africa) and Europe by 1347. Europe’s population had already been severely weakened by recurrent famines, caused by the aforementioned climate change and exacerbated locally by war-related devastations, such as those during the Hundred Years’ War.
In the 14th and 15th centuries, the plague directly and indirectly claimed the lives of 100–150 million victims (leading to a reduction of approximately half the populations of both China and Europe). Plague outbreaks persisted throughout the following century (occurring nine times in Constantinople, for instance) and much more sporadically until the present day, with less catastrophic consequences. The ongoing trend of climate cooling and the reversion of numerous cultivated lands to wasteland did not facilitate demographic recovery. By approximately 1400, the global population had only reached 300–370 million, with approximately 450 million inhabitants (half of them in South and East Asia) by 1500. Consequently, the population had barely returned to the levels of the 13th century when Europeans arrived in America.
1.2.3. Migration and colonization of the past
The colonization of the Americas marked a previously unparalleled continuity and scale in migrations, because migrations in the past had consistently yielded an ambiguous demographic impact. While they played a pivotal role in populating each segment of the ecumene, their contribution to subsequent densification appears rather modest beyond their foundational role. Densification primarily relied on the natural growth of established populations, a slow but effective process when sustained over centuries. Historians often depict the pre-modern world as a collection of closed systems. The mobility of the vast majority of peasants rarely extended beyond the boundaries of their village or the surrounding areas. The expansion of humanized spaces was mainly driven by organized clearing or cultivation, gradually encroaching upon the natural landscapes adjacent to settlements. Only a small subset of the population (comprising adventurers, pioneers, merchants, sailors, missionaries, crusaders, soldiers or officials, etc.) engaged in longer-distance or even transcontinental movements.
Invasions and exoduses may have wielded significant political, economic, religious or societal impacts, but the influx of newcomers often inadequately offsets the depopulation resulting from their passage. Climate change and temporary overpopulation, for example, repeatedly prompted nomadic tribes in the heart of Eurasia to seek new territories, setting entire peoples in motion through a snowball effect. While invaders and refugees could instill terror, achieve military dominance, disrupt agricultural spaces and devastate cities, their numbers were often relatively small. In most instances, they assimilated within a few generations among indigenous populations far more numerous than themselves. However, in some cases, communities of peasants, refugees or those displaced by large empires multiplied and endured without assimilating to the surrounding peoples. This phenomenon paved the way for the entanglement of nationalities and recurrent conflicts, as observed in regions like the Balkans, the Caucasus, the Middle East, etc. The demographic impact of ancient and medieval colonizers was also relatively minor compared to the existing peasant populations in the territories they settled. Their enduring influence stemmed from political dominance rather than sheer numbers, enabling the dissemination of their culture, religion and language among the barbarians.
In the mid-15th century, when the Ottoman Turks had gained control over all the crucial endpoints in the connections between Europe, India and China – the leading economic powers of the Late Middle Ages – they significantly reduced and increased the cost of deliveries of spices, silk and other precious products. The Portuguese embarked on a quest for unrestricted access to South Asia, circumventing Africa. They achieved this in 1498, establishing a series of outposts along the coasts and islands of Africa. Meanwhile, the Spanish sought a quicker maritime route via the Atlantic. In 1492, Christopher Columbus unknowingly landed in a world that had, until then, been entirely isolated from the Afro-Eurasian bloc. Starting in 1519, the conquistadors initiated the conquest of the continent. The formidable Aztec empire collapsed abruptly, as initial encounters with Europeans proved deadly for the Native Americans. Smallpox and measles, diseases entirely unknown to the pre-Columbian population, decimated tens of millions of Mexicans and Caribbean natives (in Andean America, where the population was more dispersed, resistance to contagion was higher), clearing the way for the establishment of settlers.
Henceforth, Europe gained direct access to the agricultural opportunities in the tropical zone. Colonists introduced spice and sugar plantations to the Caribbean islands, sparking immediate disputes among Spain, Portugal, England, France and the United Provinces. As the indigenous workforce proved inadequate, it was replaced by another constrained workforce, captured in West Africa. Between the early 16th and mid-19th centuries, 10–15 million slaves were transported to American shores, half to the Caribbean and North America, and half to Brazil and the rest of South America. The slave trade enriched Portuguese and French Atlantic ports, but it profoundly devastated the countries of origin in virtually every aspect. The dire consequences of slave raids (exoduses, agricultural disorganization, elevated mortality, gender imbalances, low birth rates, etc.) and mortality during transportation directly and indirectly resulted in the extermination of even more people.
