Roadmapping Extended Reality E-Book
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- Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
- Kategorie: Wissenschaft und neue Technologien
- Sprache: Englisch
ROADMAPPING EXTENDED REALITY
This book offers a comprehensive overview of the technological aspects of Extended Realities (XR) and discusses the main challenges and future directions in the field.
This book is important and timely – XR technologies have overcome the 3 main aspects that were holding it back from mainstream adoption: cost, cables, and size. However, there are many aspects of XR technologies that are now going to be explored and developed that still need urgent research in terms of security, privacy, health and safety, long-term effects, addiction risks, and age-related developmental concerns, and the aim of the book is to inform all readers of these open issues and challenges. There are currently a great number of interdisciplinary researchers and developers working in the XR R&D field. Recently, XR technologies moved from the Gartner Hype Cycle onto the Plateau of Productivity on the Gartner Hype Cycle signaling that the fundamental XR technologies are now deemed mature technologies and ready for deployment in a wide variety of application areas. Corroborated by the fact that XR technologies are part of the future Metaverse, a concept that went rapidly mainstream during the time of writing of this book.
Roadmapping Extended Reality is divided into two parts: (1) fundamentals and (2) applications. The first part covers the main technological aspects of XR. The chapters in this section review and discuss relevant fundamental concepts of XR, the actual state-of-the-art, and future challenges. The second part of the book focuses on covering a wide range of applications of XR including a future roadmap. All in all, the book offers a snapshot of the state-of-the-art in XR and addresses the needs of a multidisciplinary audience working in both academia and the industry, as well as stakeholders at government agencies and non-profit organizations.
Audience
This book is aimed at academic and industrial developers, exploring and developing applications in the XR, VR, AR, AI, smart IoT, 4th Industrial Revolution space, including those that are solving technology requirements, human factors, evaluation methodology advances, and ROI investigations.
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Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2022
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Table of Contents
Cover
Title Page
Copyright
Foreword
Preface
1 Future Directions for XR 2021-2030: International Delphi Consensus Study
1.1 Introduction
1.2 XR and the Delphi Study Forecast
1.3 Key Enabling R&D Prerequisites, Concerns and Targets
1.4 Future Research Agenda and Roadmap
1.5 Near-Term Challenges
Acknowledgments
References
2 Digital Narratives in Extended Realities
2.1 Introduction
2.2 XR and Interactive Digital Narratives (IDN)
2.3 Domains of Applications
2.4 Future Perspectives
References
3 Haptic Interfaces
3.1 Introduction
3.2 State-of-the-Art
3.3 Scientific and Technological Challenges
3.4 Application-Specific Challenges
3.5 Future Research Agenda and Roadmap
References
4 Immersive Sound for XR
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Immersive Audio Rendering for XR
4.3 Technological Challenges
4.4 Envisioning Applications
4.5 Future Research Agenda and Roadmap
Acknowledgments
References
5 Visual Interfaces in XR
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Definitions
5.3 Visual Interfaces Building Blocks
5.4 Visual Interfaces in VR
5.5 Visual Interfaces in AR
5.6 Future Research Agenda and Roadmap
References
6 XR and Metaverse Software Platforms
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Enabling Platforms
6.3 Content Platforms
6.4 Human-Centered Platforms
6.5 Utility Platforms
6.6 Application Platforms
6.7 Future Research Agenda and Roadmap
References
7 Human Perception Engineering
7.1 Introduction
7.2 XR and Human Perception
7.3 Future Research Agenda and Roadmap
Funding
References
8 Extended Reality and Artificial Intelligence: Synergic Approaches in Real World Applications
8.1 Introduction
8.2 XR and Artificial Intelligence
8.3 Future Research Agenda and Roadmap
References
9 Extended Reality & The Backbone: Towards a 3D Mirrorworld
9.1 Introduction
9.2 Critical Uncertainties for the Future of XR
9.3 XR and Decentralization: Blockchain Infrastructure
9.4 XR and the Backbone: Enabling Critical Functionalities
9.5 XR Open Sharing and Interoperability
9.6 Future Research Agenda and Roadmap
Acknowledgments
References
10 Human Factors and Ergonomics
10.1 Introduction
10.2 XR and Human Factors
10.3 Future Research Agenda and Roadmap
Acknowledgments
References
11 XR and Neurorehabilitation
11.1 Introduction
11.2 XR and Neurorehabilitation
11.3 Future Research Agenda and Roadmap
References
12 Use of XR’s Technologies for Consumer Behavior Analysis
12.1 Introduction
12.2 The Concept of Virtual Consumer Experience
12.3 A Framework for the Use of XR in Consumer Behavior Research
12.4 Future Research Agenda and Roadmap
References
13 XR for Industrial Training & Maintenance
13.1 Introduction
13.2 XR and Industrial Training and Maintenance
13.3 Future Research Agenda and Roadmap
References
14 Use of XR Technologies for the Assessment and Training of Leadership Skills
14.1 What is Leadership?
14.2 Leadership Assessment: Explicit Methods
14.3 Leadership Biomarkers: Organizational Neuroscience
14.4 Extended Reality Technologies and Leadership Assessment
14.5 Future Research Agenda and Roadmap
References
15 Surgery Applications: Expanding Surgeons’ Capabilities
15.1 Introduction
15.2 XR and Surgery
15.3 Future Research Agenda and Roadmap
References
Index
End User License Agreement
List of Tables
Chapter 1
Table 1.1 Timeline for the XR R&D roadmap.
Chapter 5
Table 5.1 Main challenges future AR headsets will face, benchmarked against the ...
Chapter 10
Table 10.1 Process applied in design of immersive VR-based applications dedicate...
Chapter 11
Table 11.1 SWOT analysis of XR technologies for neurorehabilitation; black dots ...
Table 11.2 Short-term and long-term perspectives for the use of XR in neurorehab...
Chapter 12
Table 12.1 General eye-tracking metrics.
Table 12.2 AOI related eye-tracking metrics.
Table 12.3 Navigation metrics.
Table 12.4 Interaction metrics.
Table 12.5 Body posture metrics.
Chapter 13
Table 13.1 Outlook for future developments of the topic and applications.
Chapter 15
Table 15.1 Characteristics of tumors
List of Illustrations
Chapter 1
Figure 1.1 The essential eight key enabling technologies. Illustration by: Maxel...
Chapter 3
Figure 3.1 PS5 DualSense controller trigger mechanism. TronicFix (YouTube).
Figure 3.2 Virtuose™ force-feedback device. Haption.
Figure 3.3 Internal organs simulation. Infiny Tech3D (YouTube).
Figure 3.4 Cable interaction in a subsea scenario. Algorix (YouTube).
Figure 3.5 Simulation of nozzle insertion. Light & Shadows (YouTube).
Figure 3.6 Virtual reality-based training of hand surgery. University of Regensb...
Chapter 4
Figure 4.1 Number of publications reported by Scopus since 1991 in the field of ...
Chapter 5
Figure 5.1 Evolution of pixel count in VR displays along the years (Night1, Dzid...
Figure 5.2 A lens as a VR optic.
Figure 5.3 VR optics configurations. Figure 5.3 VR optics configurations. The ch...
Figure 5.4 Working principle of a pancake optic.
Figure 5.5 Pancake optic with human eye adapted resolution: higher at the center...
Figure 5.6 Working principle of a multi-channel optic.
Figure 5.7 Eye-box of a multichannel optic.
Figure 5.8 Two-channel VR optic designed for two displays.
Figure 5.9 Four-channel VR optic. As the eye rotates, different portions of the ...
Figure 5.10 The optic as a lens array configuration with many channels often has...
Figure 5.11 Free-space combiner based on a lens and a 50% reflectance mirror. Th...
Figure 5.12 AR free-space combiner based on one single curved mirror.
Figure 5.13 Birdbath configuration in a free-space combiner.
Figure 5.14 Schematic view of a Free-form prism optical combiner.
Figure 5.15 Simple flat waveguide combiners based on curved embedded mirror (Eps...
Figure 5.16 2D EPE schemes, using turn gratings (left) and 2D gratings (right).
Figure 5.17 Example of slanted surface relief gratings. The orientation of grati...
Chapter 6
Figure 6.1 The spatial computing/metaverse software platforms ecosystem. The fig...
Chapter 7
Figure 7.1 The Necker cube above has two equally probable three-dimensional (3D)...
Figure 7.2 The reconstructive nature of vision is shown in uniformity illusion, ...
Figure 7.3a What is portrayed in this image? If you are stumped, try looking at ...
Figure 7.3b Another example of reconstruction is the Mooney face, in which the f...
Chapter 9
Figure 9.1 XR metaverse roadmap diagram (adapted from Smart
et al.
, 2007).
Chapter 10
Figure 10.1 Factors influencing UX of interaction with VR (adapted from models p...
Figure 10.2 Revised HF/E framework of factors influencing UX of interaction with...
Chapter 12
Figure 12.1 Evolution of the number of papers published each year on the topic o...
Figure 12.2 Taxonomy of XR characterization in marketing.
Figure 12.3 Taxonomy of consumer behavioral measurement layer in XR.
Chapter 15
Figure 15.1 Visualization options in surgery.
Figure 15.2 Strengths and weaknesses of XR in surgery.
Figure 15.3 Segmentation of gray matter, white matter, and tumors.
Figure 15.4 Tractography of the corpus callosum.
Figure 15.5 Tractography of the corpus callosum.
Figure 15.6 User performing test 1: Mobile user and fixed brain.
Figure 15.7 User performing test 2: Fixed user and mobile brain.
Figure 15.8 Spent time to find 5 tumors during first tests.
Figure 15.9 Spent time to find 5 tumors during second tests.
Figure 15.10 Visualization of DICOM images using AR.
Guide
Cover
Table of Contents
Title Page
Copyright
Foreword
1 Future Directions for XR 2021-2030: International Delphi Consensus Study
Index
End User License Agreement
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Scrivener Publishing
100 Cummings Center, Suite 541J
Beverly, MA 01915-6106
Publishers at Scrivener
Martin Scrivener ([email protected])
Phillip Carmical ([email protected])
Roadmapping Extended Reality
Fundamentals and Applications
Edited by
Mariano Alcañiz
Department of Biomedical Engineering at the Polytechnic University of Valencia, Spain
Marco Sacco
Institute of System and Industrial Intelligent Technologies for Advanced Manufacturing STIIMA, Lecco, Italy
and
Jolanda G. Tromp
Center for Visualization & Simulation, Computer Science Department, Duy Tan University, Viet Nam
&
Human-Computer Interaction, Computer Science Department, State University of New York, Oswego, NY, United States of America
This edition first published 2022 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, USA and Scrivener Publishing LLC, 100 Cummings Center, Suite 541J, Beverly, MA 01915, USA
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Cover design by Russell Richardson
Set in size of 11pt and Minion Pro by Manila Typesetting Company, Makati, Philippines
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10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Foreword
It is my honor to present this book about extended reality (XR) technologies and application areas. Extended reality is part of the Information and Communication Technology domain and includes virtual reality and mixed reality, the latter including augmented reality and augmented virtuality, as defined in the reality–virtuality continuum of Milgram and colleagues in 1994. In spite of its numerous already existing applications, XR has incredible societal potential; therefore, Europe must invest much more than it currently does. To this aim, bundling a vision about what the future of XR should be seemed a prerequisite.
The EuroXR Association was founded in 2010 as a continuation of the work in the European Union funded FP6 Network of Excellence INTUITION (2004–2008). It is an umbrella organization gathering not only individuals, but also national chapters and associations, large companies, small-to-medium enterprises (SMEs), as well as research institutions, universities, and laboratories. In November 2020, the EuroXR Association launched the XR Open Forum. This initiative aims to organize regular meetings with EuroXR members, but is also widely open to external experts, to brainstorm on the new actions that our association could lead on, with the aim to increase the awareness of Europe in the Extended Reality domain. This book presents the EuroXR Delphi consensus study results and a wide variety of XR technology reviews and XR application areas—the first outcome of the XR Open Forum initiative of the EuroXR Association.
Therefore, as the new president of EuroXR, it is a great pleasure to first congratulate the editorial team of this book, namely, Pr. Mariano Alcaniz Raya (Director LabLENI, Universitat Politècnica de València, Spain), Dr. Marco Sacco (Past president of EuroXR, Head of CNR-STIIMA subsidiary in Lecco, Italy), and Dr. Jolanda G. Tromp (Consultant to EuroXR Association for the Delphi consensus study; Director Center for Visualization and Simulation, Duy Tan University, Vietnam; Visiting Assistant Professor, State University of New York in Oswego, NY, USA; visiting researcher, 3D DIANA research lab, University of Malaga, Spain). More widely, I want to express my genuine gratitude to the renowned scientists and experts who contributed chapters to this great project that the association has decided to undertake. This book allowed EuroXR members and many external collaborators to work together to achieve something bigger, and we are happy to underline once again the importance of collaboration in such a scientific and advanced technology field. I also thank Beatrice Palacco (EuroXR Communication Manager), Yves Geunes, X3D webdeveloper, and John Bottoms, 3D Internet consultant, who helped the editorial team so much and contributed to the Delphi consensus study, and I thank all the EuroXR association member volunteers and respondents who generously contributed their time and knowledge to the Delphi consensus study and this book.
This book is based on an internal report to the European Commissioners charged with future technology investment portfolio, and aims to deliver a synthetic but strong overview of the state-of-the-art in XR as of today. Over the past 11 years, the EuroXR Association has developed many friendly relationships with international XR experts, specifically to serve within the international expert committees of our annual conferences. Therefore, it was quite natural for the EuroXR Association to collect the latest views of international XR experts and share its vision with anyone working in the XR area. We really hope that everywhere in the world, our vision of XR will be useful for scientists to expand research questions and address new challenges, for providers and new companies to set new goals and envisage next steps, and for end-user analysts to be able to specify more complex needs and/or target many more people.
Dr. Patrick Bourdot
President of EuroXR (European Association of Extended Reality – https://www.euroxr-association.org/)
Research Director at CNRS; Co-Head of VENISE team (Virtual & Augmented Environments for Simulation & Experiments – http://www.limsi.fr/venise/), University of Paris-Saclay, France
Preface
Recently, according to the Gartner Hype Cycle, extended reality (XR) technologies have graduated from being described as mature technologies and are now entering the plateau of productivity. Several leading tech giants are announcing that they will focus their future on the upcoming “metaverse.” While the “metaverse” is too new to define, there is a clear consensus about XR’s (VR/AR/MR) importance. This book offers a comprehensive overview of the technological aspects of XR and discusses the main challenges and future directions in the field. It is divided into two parts. The first part, “XR Technologies,” covers the main technological aspects of XR. The chapters in this section review and discuss relevant fundamental concepts of XR, the actual state-of-the-art, and future challenges. The second part, “XR Applications,” focuses on a wide range of applications, including a future roadmap. All in all, this book, which is geared towards a wide multidisciplinary audience of academic and industry stakeholders as well as government agencies and non-profit organizations, offers a snapshot of the state-of-the-art of XR and addresses the necessary requirements for its application.
The three main aspects that were holding XR technologies back from mainstream adoption—price, cables, size—have been overcome. However, there are many aspects of XR technologies currently being explored and developed that still need urgent research in terms of security, privacy, health and safety, long-term effects, addiction risks, and age-related developmental concerns; therefore, our aim is to inform all readers of these open issues and challenges. The main benefit of technology roadmapping is to summarize information to inform and direct technology investment decisions. There are currently a great number of interdisciplinary researchers and developers working in the XR R&D field focused on identifying critical technologies and technology gaps and identifying ways to leverage R&D investments.
The intended audience of this book includes XR enthusiasts, researchers, developers, students, and practitioners at large institutes and companies, SMEs, etc. To serve this audience in the best way possible, the book has been divided into two sections. The first section, “XR Technologies,” provides a scientific overview of the technologies and discusses technical state-ofthe-art aspects of XR. This section starts with a chapter that describes a Delphi consensus study amongst XR experts to gauge their opinion on the future of XR. Then, subsequent chapters address the following topics: digital narratives, haptic interfaces, audio interfaces, visual interfaces, software platforms, human perception engineering, XR & AI, XR open standards, and human factors. In the second section, “XR Applications,” a practical overview is given of the various application areas that have been found promising for innovation with XR solutions, and informs readers of the potential return on investment. Subsequent chapters in this section cover the following topics: neurorehabilitation, retail and marketing, industrial training and maintenance, human resources skill training, and surgery. A brief summary of each chapter of the book follows.
–
Chapter 1
describes the Delphi consensus study financed by the EuroXR Association into the state-of-the-art of XR R&D, which gathered information from more than 400 international XR practitioners as input for a dedicated panel of 7 invited XR experts for the Delphi consensus seeking process, who formulated 42 consolidated forecasting statements after 2 consensus rounds, regarding future directions, challenges and a roadmap for XR, created based on their responses.
–
Chapter 2
sets forth that it is of utmost importance to address the central role of narrative as one of the main factors contributing to the expressive and representational potential of XR technologies in many domains of application.
–
Chapter 3
sets forth that haptic technologies are still under-exploited in XR applications, which makes it all the more important to understand the obstacles that remain to be overcome in terms of technology and applications.
–
Chapter 4
sets forth that immersive audio is a very active research area with many potential applications in XR and that there is huge potential in this field, which is underrepresented in the area of XR, and should therefore be included in any future research roadmap on the topic.
–
Chapter 5
discusses the main approaches visual interfaces are following these days to attain the goals fixed by the different brands in the XR field, along with a short overview of future technologies with the potential to become the state-of-the-art in the next few years.
–
Chapter 6
sets forth that the evolution of spatial computing is driving the adoption of a new 3D software ecosystem known as the metaverse, a new paradigm that will require a whole new set of software platforms.
–
Chapter 7
proposes the foundations of a new field known as perception engineering to unify and guide XR research in human perception, focusing on the current state and potential shortcomings of human perception and XR research, and setting goals for the field to aspire to concerning best practices, inclusivity, and open-source modular technology.
–
Chapter 8
highlights the challenge of merging Extended Reality and Artificial Intelligence to build a synergic collaboration between technologies to support and preserve a humancentric vision.
–
Chapter 9
sets forth that the convergence of XR technologies creates a computing paradigm shift by facilitating a new 3D interactive multi-user experience accessible anywhere via the internet. This future 3D internet will have certain requirements: it needs an XR enabling internet backbone, based on interoperability, open standards, created together in open source academic-industry cross-disciplinary collaboration, including urgent regulation to mitigate the inherent risks to privacy and security of XR technologies. The challenges and roadmap for the near and mid-term XR Backbone developments are discussed.
–
Chapter 10
presents an overview of human factors/ergonomics (HF/E) issues associated with XR regarding user experience models defined in early virtual reality (VR) research, including several recommendations for future research.
–
Chapter 11
presents the state-of-the-art concerning the use of XR technologies in the rehabilitation of neurological disorders, concluding that they are a promising tool to address the challenges presented by motor/physical rehabilitation and cognitive training programs. However, several improvements for future developments related to devices and human factors are also addressed.
–
Chapter 12
explores the use of XR technologies as a very promising tool to examine various customer behavioral patterns in dynamic, complex, and realistic situations that will enhance our knowledge of new models of buyer-product and buyer-seller relationships. It also sets forth that it is necessary to provide a standard framework that will allow the creation of controlled laboratory situations to study the factors that affect the acceptability of new products and retail spaces and the influence that the different elements that surround consumers have on their decisions.
–
Chapter 13
describes recent research results that present XR as a promising solution for assembly, training, and maintenance tasks in Industry 4.0. However, before XR becomes widely used, the industry must overcome several challenges like 2D and 3D data standardization challenges, authoring tools, and new interfaces among others.
–
Chapter 14
emphasizes that XR is a very important tool for assessing training skills of the 21st century that companies need to address the strategies they use to develop their human resources in terms of knowledge and leadership. In this chapter, the latest developments in XR technology and organizational sciences are examined. It introduces the concept of XR-based behavioral biomarkers (XRBB) which can be obtained for the evaluation of skills using a neuroscientific organizational paradigm based on implicit brain processes measured through psychophysiological signals and behavior of subjects exposed to complex social conditions replication using XR interfaces.
–
Chapter 15
shows the current state of XR technologies in surgery, highlighting their strengths and weaknesses, showing examples of implementations, and outlining the future work that should lead to overcoming current weaknesses and result in giving surgeons efficient and effective tools for their work.
Lastly, contact information gathered from this book’s many contributors is presented to facilitate direct discussions between readers and leading research and industry professionals interested in XR technologies.
Mariano Alcañiz
Marco Sacco
Jolanda Tromp
1Future Directions for XR 2021-2030: International Delphi Consensus Study
Jolanda G. Tromp1,2*, Gabriel Zachmann3, Jerome Perret4and Beatrice Palacco5
1Center for Visualization & Simulation (CVS), Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Viet Nam
23D DIANA Research Group, E.T.S.I. de Telecomunicacion, University of Malaga, Malaga, Spain
3CGVR Lab, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
4Haption, Laval, France
5EuroXR Association, Brussels, Belgium
Abstract
XR has been put forward as one of the “Essential Eight” key enabling technologies of the 21st century. Together, they are expected to drive the digital transformation that has started only recently in many areas of business, daily life, and leisure. Importantly, XR has the potential to play a major role in supporting the achievement of several if not all 17 Sustainable Development Goals set forth by the UN. The path towards realizing the full potential of XR technologies needs to be clarified in order to make informed decisions about research and development agendas, investment, funding, and regulations. In order to provide insights into the best approach to further develop XR towards its full potential, the EuroXR Association initiated a study using the well-established Delphi consensus method, drawing on the expertise of independent senior XR experts to formulate future directions for XR R&D. The results are presented in terms of a roadmap for the future of XR, identifying the prerequisites to clear the path for this, and clarifying the roles and responsibilities for the XR research community, the XR business community, and the government and regulation bodies. The main findings of our XR roadmap are summarized into a number of specific areas for the stakeholders to act upon, in order to push the cutting edge of XR and be part of the early-adopters who have this key enabling technology at their disposal throughout industry, education and society.
Keywords: Extended reality, Delphi method, XR Roadmap, XR and 17 SDGs
1.1 Introduction
Leaders, governments, companies, educational institutions, researchers, and members of the general public aim to understand and anticipate the opportunities offered by new technologies. Of particular interest are emerging technologies that are expected to have a transformational or high impact potential. Currently the synergy of a number of technology developments is converging with such transformational potential, referred to as the “Essential Eight” Key Enabling Technologies (KETs) that are transforming the way we organize work, education, communication, socialization, information access, and our identity (see Figure 1.1):
Augmented Reality (AR):
location-based, multi-sensory, window between real and virtual;
Virtual Reality (VR):
real-time interactive 3D Computer Graphics (CG), collaborative design spaces, simulation, testing, and optimization spaces;
Artificial Intelligence (AI):
big data analytics, machine learning (ML), micro and macro process analysis, and optimization;
5G Cloud Computing:
decentralization, mobile computing;
Blockchain:
cybersecurity, privacy, and trust;
5G Internet of Things (5G IoT):
high-speed connectivity between IT and Operational Technology (OT), smart cyber-physical twins;
Drones:
autonomous and semi-autonomous robots and virtual agents
3D Printing:
additive manufacturing.
Extended Reality (XR) technology solutions consist of various combinations of the KETs, using VR, AR, Mixed Reality, and 360° interactive 3D scanned real world spaces and objects, to provide an interface to interact with remote machines or view 3D computer generated visualizations and simulations, and display augmentations and big data results dynamically, facilitating and facilitated by the other current KETs. XR provides the online 3D communication and interaction space, similar to how AI provides the underlying intelligence for the behaviors of cyber-physical IoT systems, 3D CG spaces, and VR/AR user interactions. XR facilitates the embodiment of the interactions, the space in which the activities are situated, providing a spatial context to the information. While AI has recently been prioritized by many governments and companies, XR has not been prioritized as much yet.
Figure 1.1 The essential eight key enabling technologies. Illustration by: Maxelante Bussemaker.
The innovations that the current KETs are predicted to enable are expected to greatly change our local and global societies because they will allow us to optimize the time needed to get things done, and the way we do it, and in the process creating a multi-billion industry. The increased interest can already be witnessed by the plethora of research publications, business reports, and forecasts about the anticipated opportunities of the KETs that have been produced recently and are rapidly increasing in volume [1–23]. The early adopters of novel solutions using XR in combination with AI and IoT will be able to optimize their product or service design via big data analysis using Machine Learning (ML) and this will enable them to gain a rapid advantage [5, 24–27].
These days, advancements in eye and hand-tracking capabilities are built into XR headsets and allow for psychophysiological measurements of the user while interacting with the XR experience. This information is used to analyze customer engagement, and what is more, it can be tested and quantified, thus allowing calculations to measure Return-On-Investment (ROI) to be based on actual time and motion studies with quantitative data [15]. There is clearly a huge potential advantage in being able to save users and institutions time and money, accelerate development processes, measure user engagement to personalize their experience, facilitate communication and collaboration better than a videoconference, and enable a rapid iteration of new business models with increasingly more optimized processes and profitable ROI.
To better understand where funding for future XR applications research and development will be best allocated to facilitate the cutting-edge advantages, the EuroXR Association conducted a consensus survey among global XR experts using the Delphi consensus seeking method. This chapter summarizes the results.
1.2 XR and the Delphi Study Forecast
The Delphi method is an interactive multi-stage forecasting procedure where specific experts identify technical developments and trends in an iterative process to achieve clarification and consensus [28–32]. The method was developed by the RAND Corporation to generate scenarios for long-range strategic planning in the 1950–1960s and became a widely accepted approach to facilitate the development of reliable group opinions using expert panels [33, 34]. It was developed to structure time-consuming group opinion seeking processes, among a set of experts by getting them to participate in a panel, and seek consensus on future developments for complex problems, using participative inquiry that has its roots in humanistic psychology [35]. The Delphi forecast consists of statements formulated by the group of domain experts regarding the topic that is being studied.
A core benefit of the Delphi method is the opportunity to provide domain experts an anonymous place to express different opinions and reach consensus within a structured asynchronous and synchronous text-based information exchange setting. The domain experts express and share views in the group, directly or mediated by the Delphi organizers, depending on the online consensus tool interface and design of the study [36–38]. Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the frequency of use and popularity of using consensus tools via the internet such as online Delphi have risen considerably. The full description of the Delphi study reported here can be found in [39].
The preparation for the Delphi consensus process starts with an open survey to collect topics regarding the theme of the Delphi from the wider forum of experts. These themes provide the basis for the initial forecast statements. The Delphi consensus seeking process itself uses a group of specifically selected participants, a panel of domain experts. The panel of experts is asked to assess and rewrite the statements until they can fully agree with the contents. Typically, for Delphi studies, depending on budget and time available, the consensus seeking rounds are repeated until a minimum of 70% consensus has been achieved for each statement by the panel.
The preparation survey that aims at collecting the starting points for the Delphi statements was distributed via the EuroXR Association (www.euroxr-association.org), the VRISI network (www.vrisi.de), and other international XR professional groups, and many members of these lists forwarded the invitation to their mailing lists, such as the German and the French VR/AR/XR Association. Respondents were invited to nominate themselves for the Delphi XR Expert panel. Eighty-two respondents submitted a response to the online survey; however, of those 82, 40 had to be discarded because they were very incomplete, leaving 42 complete records for our analysis. On average, it took respondents 1 hour to reply to the survey. There were 24 academics in the sample, 18 employed in business, and four of these respondents stated that they were both involved in academia and business. They are from 15 different countries. In the previous waves, they worked 42 years in XR R&D, and there is some visibility of the previous waves of the VR/AR development over the years, as illustrated in the Gartner Hype Cycle [1] in the clusters of respondents’ number of years involved in XR R&D; the current influx of newcomers in the field was found. A similar cluster distribution was found in the age brackets in which the respondents fit, showing the normal distribution in age that one would hope and expect for a field that has been in existence for more than 30 years. Forty-one out of forty-two respondents are members of one or more professional XR membership groups. There were 9 women (21%) and 33 men (79%) in the sample, and they are aged between 25 and 75. The original full set of 82 records (before excluding the abandoned/incomplete responses) showed a similar ratio of female/male respondents of 16 females (22.2%) and 58 males (75%) and 2 respondents who preferred not to share their gender information (2.8%)—the latter showing the growing trend of more openness towards non-binary gender orientation, and gender orientation diversity is also reflected in the XR community and the Delphi sample group.
Twelve participants for the Delphi XR expert panel were selected from the anonymized list of self-nominated respondents for the Delphi panel of the first survey, based on the following selection criteria: >35 years old to ensure significant amount of experience in XR, Senior position in their respective organization (e.g., professor, team leader, etc.), active position in academia or industry, actively working in XR, and gender balance 50/50 was attempted by inviting additional female experts.
This Delphi study consisted of two rounds of consensus seeking. For the first round, 43 Delphi statements were prepared based on an exhaustive content analysis of the initial open survey and a literature review, with an estimated time of 1 hour to respond to complete it. Participants were asked to read each of the statements and decide in what way they agree/disagree with them and correct it, if it did not reflect their opinion. The aim of this Round 1 survey was for each participant of the XR panel to rewrite the statements in such a way that it is fully in line with their opinion. The statements were followed by a four-point scale to indicate their agreement with the statement as follows: Strongly Disagree, Disagree, Agree, Strongly Agree, and an open response box asking them to rewrite the statement in case they could not fully agree with it.
The survey was open for 7 days, and reminder emails were sent out with an extension of the deadline by a few days in order to maximize the number of responses. Seven experts responded in total: 7 male and 0 female respondents, working in multiple, diverse, and different areas of the XR R&D field: Industry 4.0 (43%), 3D interaction (14%), Mitigating cybersickness (14%), Optics (14%), Personalized interaction (14%), Virtual tours (14%), XR for business, (14%), XR for training (14%), and XR UXUI (14%).
The statements were initially grouped into four overarching themes relevant to creating a technology roadmap: the market, the enabling environment, human capital, and the innovation ecosystem, further defined as:
XR Market:
statements regarding the position of the XR market and statements are related to building XR development skills and awareness for different Technological Readiness Levels (TRL).
XR Enabling Environment:
statements regarding leadership in terms of standards for XR R&D.
Human XR Capital:
statements regarding building XR development skills and awareness for different TRL.
XR Innovation Ecosystem:
statements relating to the XR development platforms: middleware/real-time 3D engines.
Of the 43 statements of Round 1, 28 statements had full consensus, leaving 15 statements with less than 70% consensus to be improved by the expert panel in Round 2. The statements from this first round of consensus seeking and the comments and rewrites from the panel members are reused for the next round of consensus seeking, after a reconciliation of each statement by the Delphi study designers. The reconciliation consists of removing any overlap introduced by the multiple and diverse rewrites from each of the panel members, coordinated by the Delphi study designers.
Round 2 of this Delphi was the final round. During this round, a final effort to find consensus for the 15 statements that were not fully agreed yet was sought, and additionally all statements were analyzed in terms of their importance and urgency. Round 2 closed with a total of 42 statements accepted, and one statement really had the panel divided (R2 Q12, in XR Enabling Environment). During the final round of the Delphi, the statements were weighted by the panel in terms of importance and urgency. In many statements, the respondents already explicitly expressed urgency or priority or strong agreement in the statement, or it was added at the request of one or more of the panel members. To visualize the collective opinions of importance/urgency on the statements the scores placed in colored columns in the tables below:
Column A: extremely important/totally agree/extremely urgent
Column B: very important/strongly agree/very urgent
Column C: important/agree/urgent
1.2.1 XR Market
These are statements regarding the position of XR in the market, and statements are related to building XR development skills and awareness for different TRLs.
XR market statements
A
B
C
1 XR technologies are a strategic source of competitiveness, and their development must be strongly supported. (R2 Q31)
7
2 Focus on the potential market share in creating 3D asset libraries specific to Industry 4.0 use-cases, to help speed up XR development, because many industry use-cases are early-adopters of high-precision manufacturing using XR Industry 4.0 solutions, and the Industry 4.0 use-case specific 3D assets are expected to become of interest world-wide. (R2 Q9)
5
1
3 Urgently support the development of industry specific XR Development Asset stores, with high quality shareware assets that are available for developers under a sustainable non-profit business model, crowd-sourced, no-cost, or low-cost. (R2 Q25)
5
1
4 It may or may not be too late for newcomers to catch up on the global consumer XR input/output device manufacturing market, because there are many big companies producing consumer XR input/output devices, but stakeholders should explore this direction. (R2 Q14)
3
2
1
5 XR developers and stakeholders can capture the market by prioritizing research into XR Customer eXperience (CX) measurements and psychophysiological user behavior data. (R2 Q11)
2
4
6 With several global companies interested in monetizing users’ data, more research into General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) is needed, specifically regarding protection and regulation of XR users’ personal and psychophysiological data, and because the GDPR may not cover all legal aspects; additionally, a complete classification of the psychophysiological data should be made, and this will be especially important for BCI solutions. (R2 Q15)
2
3
1
7 XR technologies are essential for the development and success of Industrial Data and Clouds. (Q48)
7
8 Facilitate the market uptake of XR applications for healthcare by establishing more flexible rules for experimentations and by creating a funding instrument dedicated to the certification process. (R2 Q19)
6
Based on these statements, it is clear XR is part of the KETs, has been used in the manufacturing industries for decades, and is now entering many new sectors due to its consumer-grade availability. Consequently, all experts in the Delphi XR panel unanimously and strongly agreed that XR is of strategic importance. It is now important for many areas of industry, business, health, science, and environment, and will be in the future for many more.
With respect to spurring on “supporting” markets and technologies (statements 2, 3, 4), such as input/output devices and 3D assets, the Delphi XR panel experts suggest that newcomers should be prepared to invest heavily to catch up with global developments; otherwise this might be wasted effort, since global XR developments are extremely fast-paced and dynamic in this area. However, there is an opportunity to develop use-case specific tailored solutions for future XR markets.
XR offers serious potentials for multinational companies to intrude on people’s privacy and monetization of user data, and could, potentially, cause serious issues with respect to society as a whole (statements 6 and 8). Therefore, the experts feel that regulating the applications of XR is an important task for governments, regulators, and end-users.
1.2.2 XR Enabling Environment
These are statements regarding leadership in terms of regulations, standards, and TRLs of participants and institutes for XR R&D.
XR enabling environment statements
A
B
C
9 Urgently fund R&D and standardization work towards the cybersecurity of XR technologies, especially personal XR devices that are going to be part of the mobile phone. (R2 Q44)
7
10 Make available and subsidize easily accessible prototyping solutions for R&D and end-user invention support in electronics and optics R&D and testing, including facilities such as publicly accessible design and manufacturing spaces and 3D printing equipment for rapid-prototyping of XR hardware designs by XR end-users, in order to foster diversity in the designs based on real end-user UXUI XR experiences, and enabling an end-user driven evolution in input/output solutions, in a short cycle of human-centered design–implement–test–redesign. (R2 Q23)
3
2
1
11 Support XR R&D for input/output devices that go well beyond the currently developed devices, for instance, climate input/output devices (wind, rain, etc.), olfactory IO devices (providing scents), hand tracking, and use-case specific haptic devices, including standards for these new items. (R2 Q35)
7
12 Make funds more accessible for facilitating innovation via new XR labs and independent developers by increasing the success rate of proposals and by providing active help and support with the application process. (R2 Q41)
7
13 Orientate on how to prioritize, support, and facilitate access to state-of-the-art XR technologies for the development of multi-user, remote collaboration XR solutions, as this involves multiple institutes collaborating, coordinating, and doing (their part of) a R&D project together. (R2 Q46)
3
3
1
14 Promote the collection of rules of best practice concerning the licensing of intellectual property rights in the field of XR, covering in particular the amounts of the royalties, the criteria of exclusivity, and the periods of validity, and encourage coordinated, open access to code which has been developed with public funding. (R2 Q20)
3
2
1
15 Create specific funding programs where strategic results (e.g., source code, 3D assets) will be made accessible for free to certain third parties, e.g., SMEs/research institutes, to extend the impact of government-funded progress and enter the market using crowd-sourced testing. (R2 Q24)
3
2
1
16 If the government were to partner with existing commercial XR platform vendors and/or provide subsidized bulk access to commercial XR platforms and assets, then this could create a strong bias in competition depending on the partnership format; however, sharing standard APIs and providing more affordable access to commercial platforms may be beneficial. (R2 Q7)
2
3
1
17 Focus more on preventing the widening of the digital divide by being more inclusive of countries with a low TRL and by coordinating the allocation of XR human capital and XR development resources, in a strategic manner that strengthens leadership and competitiveness in the global XR R&D sector. (R2 Q10)
2
3
1
18 Promote standardization of 3D scene description format, and also for immersive audio, other XR content, and devices. (R2 Q47)
1
6
19 Finance projects dealing with legal issues in XR technologies. (R2 Q45)
7
20 Help improve continuation and reuse of outstanding R&D results, help share, and help increase visibility of XR project results. (R2 Q49)
7
21 New version: Negotiate towards the standardization and open source access of commercial XR SDKs and encourage their adoption in Horizon Europe projects. (R2 Q12b)
4
2
Four XR Panel members preferred the new version of statement 21 (R2 Q12); however, two of them continued to prefer the initial version. One respondent did not reply.
Q12a Old version: [n]egotiate access to the source code of commercial XR SDKs for [..] XR labs and developers.
Research and innovation give us the tools to shape our future and the reality in which we want to live. This notion is reflected in the unanimous agreement of the Delphi panel members that looking towards the envisioned usage scenarios of XR towards 2030, standards and regulations regarding cybersecurity are of the utmost importance and fall directly in the realm of the government (statements 9 and 19). Lacking such regulations, uptake and proliferation of XR as an enabling technology could be seriously hindered.
There is also a strong opinion among the Delphi XR panel experts that investing in radically novel devices and input/output modalities could put the early adopter ahead of the curve (statement 11). Of course, such efforts must be accompanied by researching the respective fundamental principles and algorithms, in terms of human factors, interaction paradigms, physically based interaction, size, weight, and power consumption for each novel use-case.
Another important aspect is the funding process itself: all Delphi XR panel experts are of the opinion that funding processes need to be streamlined, simplified, and—above all—the success rates need to be improved. Otherwise, only research labs and SMEs with a high TRL who already have a wealth of XR tools and resources for proposal writing at their disposal will have success when applying for funding.
1.2.3 Human XR Capital
These are statements regarding building XR development skills and awareness for different Technological Readiness Levels of the XR R&D developers.
Human XR capital statements
A
B
C
22 Create more long-term XR R&D projects to facilitate long-term fundamental research, long-term teamwork, skills exchange, and continuity of XR R&D skills development, especially in the areas that are very cutting-edge for XR technology breakthroughs. (R2 Q32)
7
23 Promote, subsidize, and facilitate access to state-of-the-art XR equipment for end-users and the general public; it should also help raise awareness and understanding of the possibilities and potentials, and inspire potential start-up ideas, in order to stimulate next generations to include XR technologies in their ideas and innovation proposals. (R2 Q33)
7
24 Promote the creation of scientific councils in high-tech XR companies and act to facilitate the participation of researchers in these bodies, for example by creating dedicated funding instruments. (R2 Q37)
7
25 Develop specific support for the optimization of academic-industry collaboration for XR R&D projects because the type of knowledge exchange needed for XR development may affect the success of the collaboration in unknown ways, and improvements could be made in terms of better management of XR researchers’ creative capacity, adjustments to the incentives structure, senior management support and strong leadership focused on rapid XR R&D skills development, and more recognition of skills achieved. (R2 Q38)
7
26 Widely disseminate and promote XR R&D research of best practices for successful XR knowledge-transfer cycles within academic-industry collaborations and focus on how to maximize capacity to absorb the new XR skills and XR project output, and integrate the new XR technology solutions into the value chain. (R2 Q39)
7
27 Focus more on helping to allocate XR competencies, support mobility of XR experts for international skills exchange, and training of developers at labs and companies for all XR stakeholders, including virtual (pandemic solutions) and real networking events. (R2 Q40)
7
28 XR solutions will help reduce the time-intensive requirements of building physical prototypes dramatically, bringing ideas and innovations to life and products to market far more quickly, although there is still much improvement needed of the XR development pipeline, the learning curve and time needed, and the number of experts available. (R2 Q50)
7
29 Finance R&D regarding the detection, measurement, correction, and protection against discrimination of sexual, ethnic, and economic minorities, in the use of XR technologies. (R2 Q18)
6
30 Prioritize, organize, and subsidize XR developers training and affordable train-the-trainer educational events at all educational levels, to address the current and imminent shortage in skilled XR developers and instructors. (R2 Q22)
2
4
To advance research and innovate, people, their minds, expertise, knowledge, and skillsets are clearly the most important factor for success. Investment in research and skills development (statements 22, 23, and 27) and transfer of knowledge and skills (statements 24, 25, and 39) are strongly and unanimously recommended by the Delphi XR panel experts. Important ideas here are long-term funding of fundamental research, novel instruments to facilitate smooth flow of information between companies and academia (statement 25), and fostering public understanding of XR technologies.
1.2.4 XR Innovation Ecosystem
These are statements relating to XR Development Platforms: middleware/game-engine.
XR innovation ecosystem statements
A
B
C
31 Urgently promote the development of WebXR technologies. (R2 Q36)
7
32 To strengthen leadership and competitiveness, more research is urgently needed towards the development and exploitation of B2B applications using XR, more open databases, and more business for the XR field in general. (R2 Q42)
7
33 Urgently understand/create/adopt worldwide standards and support solutions for low-cost, reusable, interoperability solutions for integrations of domain specific data such as BIM, scientific simulations, etc., and these solutions should be best practices in industrial R&D projects, be independent from the current mainstream XR software companies, and make it as efficient as possible to plug into the currently most used interactive XR platforms. (R2 Q26)
5
1
34 Foster research into how to make XR technologies and designs more accessible to all diverse user groups, exploring how to include more than the currently targeted market-segment (male, educated, English speaking consumers), making sure that communication is unbiased and checking contents for localization, and using AI to automate adaptations where possible. (R2 Q21)
4
2
35 Engage and provide full support to startups, SMEs, scale-ups, and manufacturers of XR components, such as Zeiss, Bang & Olufsen, STMicroelectronics, etc., in order to spur on the development of XR devices, since breakthrough innovations generally come out of startups and combinations of parts and components from diverse manufacturers (while those components are expensive), and use market calls for R&D and XR startups, so that market-driven companies and solutions will grow and create breakthrough innovations. (R2 Q28)
4
2
36 Urgently support R&D to expand and improve the XR development pipeline in terms of asset types, complexity of data and ontologies, and to improve interoperability between the different asset formats used in different industries. (R2 Q27)
3
3
37 Urgently improve the support for XR R&D scaling up of its innovators and SMEs and reduce the currently existing notable scaling-up gap for XR tech scale-ups and unicorn companies (European governments so far offer less in comparison to the United States and China). (R2 Q8)
2
4
38 Give more support to individual XR startups directly, to bring them into the XR ecosystem and help with commercialization of ideas, help with market entry, and generally make seed money for XR startups more easily accessible. (R2 Q16)
2
4
39 It is important to fund projects that investigate methods to establish anonymity when using XR technologies, but it should also fund projects to achieve strong identification and authentication in a secure manner in cases where applications need it. (R2 Q17)
2
4
40 XR technologies have the potential to provide a strong and adequate response to the problem of carbon emissions, by making remote work and interactions between people more efficient, thus reducing the need for personal or professional travel, and developments for solutions into this direction should be prioritized, especially as a response to pandemic-related travel restrictions and precautions. (R2 Q34)
7
41 Focus the R&D in XR technology in order to establish strategic leadership and competitiveness in the global XR R&D sector: in terms of hardware, the focus should be on human factors, interaction paradigms, ergonomics, customization, form factor, technology vs size, weight, and power consumption, and in terms of software, the focus should be on applications and SW platforms built on top of de facto market standards (IOS, Android). (R2 Q13)
6
Since the world will become more and more digitally connected, a big theme in this category is the interplay between XR and the internet/WWW (31, Q42, Q26, Q27). This is relevant both for academia as well as industry, and funding should focus on XR standards, data pipelines, cloud storage and edge computing for XR, seamless and fluid switching of devices, settings, and environments.
Europe is a diverse, multicultural, and multi-economic union of nations, and the Delphi XR panel experts recommend expanding funding to level the playing field both for diverse groups of population as well as for diverse nations with highly different economies, and there is a huge difference in market power between the international, global players (such as Google and Facebook) and aspiring start-ups and scale-ups (think David v. Goliath). Governments should urgently help SMEs by simplifying the funding schemes, helping with commercialization efforts.
1.3 Key Enabling R&D Prerequisites, Concerns and Targets
After Round 2 of the Delphi consensus process, a deeper analysis of the statements revealed 6 additional themes that emerged from looking for similarities among statements. In order to further understand the implications of the statements, they were re-examined, analyzed, and grouped according to additional important commonalities, and the following over-arching themes were identified: 1) Speed up XR Development, 2) Support XR Research to Market, 3) XR Standardization Concerns, 4) XR Business Concerns, 5) XR & the 17 Sustainable Development Goals, and 6) XR Collaboration and Knowledge exchange, further discussed in the following sections.
1.3.1 Statements on Speeding Up XR Development
These statements (statements 40, 41, 32, 36, 9, 13, 46, 27) prioritized establishing an XR market share, and various suggestions on how to achieve this were made, which are summarized below. Additionally, the statements cover the need for skills development, access to complex XR configurations for R&D, and awareness raising of the possibilities of the new technologies. According to the XR panel of experts, there are three critical areas that need to be addressed to speed up XR development and, thus, stay at the international cutting edge of the technology development:
Easier and more funding for training, connecting people, and developing competencies in XR; this needs to be done both on the experts’ and researchers’ level as well as on the students’ level.
Easier access to XR hardware and platforms for educational institutions on all levels.
Better support for start-ups and scale-ups to enter a highly dynamic and competitive market, better support for researchers to get access to funding, and higher acceptance ratios of proposals to improve success rates and reduce researchers’ application time investments.
1.3.2 Statements on Supporting XR Research to Market
There are a number of statements (statements 31, 37, 38, 39, 42, 45, 19, 34, 8, 11, 16, 23) that prioritized concerns for more support for academic-industry knowledge exchange, making XR research results more visible to potential end-users, addressing the legal issues regarding collecting privacy sensitive data via XR UIs, and creating XR end-user UX prototyping facilities. The Delphi XR panel identified two issues that should be addressed to improve the transfer of research into sustainable XR businesses in the market:
Two-way knowledge and skills exchange between academia and companies should be improved. This could be done, for instance, by funding long-term scientific council boards in companies and by better support for researchers’ creative capacities, adjustments to incentive structures, and promotion of best practices for knowledge transfer and XR integration into value chains.
Fund projects dealing with the multitude of legal issues around XR technologies, which can be a significant barrier to market entrance, especially for SMEs. In particular, legal issues around XR products and research in the health sector should be addressed and simplified by the government, since these can be a real obstacle to innovation in that sector.
1.3.3 Statements on XR Standardization Concerns
In terms of standardization, the XR Panel prioritized concerns regarding XR health and safety standards, cybersecurity, accessibility for all, and interoperability XR development skills training (statements 44, 48, 51, 18, 47, 26, 21, 17, 22). An important step for widespread adoption of XR technologies is standardization. This relates to data exchange standards, facilitating exchange of virtual scenes and communication between XR systems at runtime. It also relates to research into human factors regarding long-term use of XR, which can then be turned into best practices and standards to ensure users’ safety and health. Furthermore, standards regarding the security of XR systems and users’ data, especially in light of the massive, organized security breaches lately and the massive monetization of user’s data, are urgently needed to facilitate widespread adoption of XR.
1.3.4 Statements on XR Business Concerns
There are a number of statements that express the need for business-oriented measures (statements 8, 9, 11, 13, 16, 19, 31, 37, 45, 48). These statements can be grouped in four categories:
Regulations:
The government is an effective player for regulations. Regulations can be restrictive for businesses (e.g., experimentation in healthcare), but they can also act as protection for companies with respect to other global players (e.g., legal issues).
Strategy:
The role of the government is also to define strategic orientations in order to foster the creation of strong industrial sectors (e.g., Industrial Data and Clouds). There is a need to think broadly (Q48), but also to be aware of the detailed roadmap (statement 41).
Funding:
The financing conditions of companies in Europe are less favorable than those in Asia or in the USA. Funding is not only needed for start-ups, but also innovators, high-tech SMEs, scale-ups, and unicorns.
Knowledge:
The technology transfer from academic research to business is difficult because of the differences of culture and organization. A legal framework and incentives is needed for mobility between research and industry.
1.3.5 Statements on the 17 Global Sustainable Development Goals
Statements about XR and the 17 Global Sustainable Goals (17 SDGs) were collected in Round 0, 1, and 2 of the Delphi, and the respondents listed a
