Monte Carlo Simulation in Dependability Analysis E-Book

Franck Bayle

• Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
• Kategorie: Wissenschaft und neue Technologien
• Serie: ISTE Invoiced
• Sprache: Englisch

Seitenzahl: 195

Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2025

Beschreibung

System dependability is a complex task to grasp and analyze since it encompasses reliability, maintainability, availability, failure mode analysis and feared events. For operational safety analyses, reliability is a quantitative basis for the other disciplines of maintainability, availability and safety. Reliability metrics such as failure rate or MTBF are often misused as they are only valid for low-maintenance applications, and wrongly for others, as MTBF is only relevant for availability. In addition, in operational safety, many equations do not have explicit solutions, and Monte Carlo simulations are a little-used way of obtaining and/or confirming the solution obtained by numerical methods.

Monte Carlo Simulation in Dependability Analysis fills this gap as best as we can. This task is a difficult one, since operational safety is a cross-disciplinary activity in the engineering sciences – cross-disciplinary in that it must be present throughout a product’s life cycle.

Leseprobe

Reliability of Multiphysical Systems Set

coordinated by

Abdelkhalak El Hami

Volume 21

Monte Carlo Simulation in Dependability Analysis

Franck Bayle

Laurent Denis

Adrien Gigliati

First published 2025 in Great Britain and the United States by ISTE Ltd and John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, this publication may only be reproduced, stored or transmitted, in any form or by any means, with the prior permission in writing of the publishers, or in the case of reprographic reproduction in accordance with the terms and licenses issued by the CLA. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside these terms should be sent to the publishers at the undermentioned address:

ISTE Ltd27-37 St George’s RoadLondon SW19 4EUUKwww.iste.co.uk

John Wiley & Sons, Inc.111 River StreetHoboken, NJ 07030USAwww.wiley.com

© ISTE Ltd 2025The rights of Franck Bayle, Laurent Denis and Adrien Gigliati to be identified as the authors of this work have been asserted by them in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.

Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s), contributor(s) or editor(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of ISTE Group.

Library of Congress Control Number: 2025944643

British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication DataA CIP record for this book is available from the British LibraryISBN 978-1-83669-032-0

The manufacturer’s authorized representative according to the EU General Product Safety Regulation is Wiley-VCH GmbH, Boschstr. 12, 69469 Weinheim, Germany, e-mail: [email protected].

Foreword by Philippe Bogdanik

There are first meetings that leave a lasting impression. My first meeting with Franck Bayle at the end of the 20th century struck me at the time. I was a student and had just arrived for an internship at a company, where we would work side by side for many years until his retirement. It was also my first meeting with my internship supervisor, also the head of department, who brought us together with Franck to explain the activities and studies to be carried out to develop new power electronics intended for the aeronautical world. A monologue ensued from the electronics expert, who gave us his instructions and then dismissed us to let us organize our work. Then, Franck asked me seriously, “Did you understand what he said? Can you explain it to me?” I admit I was surprised by his question: how could an engineer, expert his field, in a large group not understand what his superior was saying?

After several decades, this questioning seems natural coming from Franck. He obviously understood, but only a few subtleties had escaped him. He has always been curious to understand the world around him. Now it is up to him to enlighten me with his knowledge.

After abandoning electronic development to focus on reliability studies, he has always sought to improve his knowledge and then develop working methods, which has not been easy in the company. The proposed change, if it brings a certain additional cost compared to future gains which cannot be immediately determined, is difficult to adopt, especially if the additional costs occur during the development phase and the gains during the production or maintenance phase.

Paradoxically, Franck was more recognized outside the company, where he was able to forge links with other experts in the reliability field. He always sought to confront the best in his field, which makes him an unusual case among experts.

Now, it is time for Franck to complete his transmission of knowledge accumulated over the years by bringing in his wake Laurent Denis and Adrien Gigliati, who he has worked with for years. The numerical resolution methods they have developed will find, through this book, an audience informed about reliability issues.

Philippe BOGDANIK

Engineer at Thales AVS France

September 2025

Foreword by Gilles Zwingelstein

Operational safety (OS) is a major concern for those responsible for operating complex industrial systems to meet operational and regulatory requirements. OS is a multidisciplinary scientific discipline in its own right and is constantly evolving to integrate new tools and requirements, particularly in the areas of maintenance and technological risk management. It is defined as “the ability of an entity to satisfy one or more required functions under given conditions”. In a broad sense, OS is considered the science of failures and breakdowns. The major difficulties in operational safety lie in the random nature of the moment of occurrence of the failure, the knowledge of its reliability law and the difficulty of carrying out real reliability tests. Many explicit or statistical methods have been developed by many researchers.

This book exhaustively describes the Monte Carlo simulation methods in operational safety. It clearly describes, for the non-specialist, the reasons why, Monte Carlo simulations are essential when analytical methods are insufficient or impractical. It presents four parts that are essential to technicians and engineers concerned with Monte Carlo simulation methods for reliability studies, spare stock management, availability and safety. This book differentiates the cases of systems operated without maintenance from those subject to maintenance. It proposes a very relevant classification of reliability during the lifetime of equipment by describing the problems linked to predictive reliability and operational reliability by describing the role of Monte Carlo simulations.