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Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
Kategorie: Wissenschaft und neue Technologien
Serie: Stevens Institute Series on Complex Systems and Enterprises
Sprache: Englisch

Beschreibung

Examines current and prospective challenges surrounding global challenges of education, energy, healthcare, security, and resilience This book discusses issues in large-scale systems in the United States and around the world. The authors examine the challenges of education, energy, healthcare, national security, and urban resilience. The book covers challenges in education including America's use of educational funds, standardized testing, and the use of classroom technology. On the topic of energy, this book examines debates on climate, the current and future developments of the nuclear power industry, the benefits and cost decline of natural gases, and the promise of renewable energy. The authors also discuss national security, focusing on the issues of nuclear weapons, terrorism and cyber security. Urban resilience is addressed in the context of natural threats such as hurricanes and floods. * Studies the usage of a globalized benchmark for both student and pedagogical performance * Covers topics such as surveillance, operational capabilities, movement of resources, and the pros and cons of globalization * Examines big data, evolving medical methodologies and effects on the medical educational curriculum, and the positive effects of electronic records in healthcare data Perspectives on Complex Global Challenges: Education, Energy Healthcare, Security, and Resilience serves as a reference for government officials, personnel in security, business executives and system engineers.

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Seitenzahl: 332

Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2016

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Leseprobe

Cover

Title Page

Dedication

Contributors

Introduction and Overview

Introduction

Trade-Offs, Risks, and Opportunities in Turbulent Times

Opportunities

Overview of Contribution

Can America Still Compete?

Section I: Education

Chapter 1: Introduction

Overview of Contributions

References

Chapter 2: K-12 Education Reform in the United States

Great Teachers

High Expectations

Tension in the System

Intelligent use of Technology in the Classroom

Make Education Relevant for the Student

Chapter 3: Secure America's Economic Future by Investing in Young Children

References

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Guide

Cover

Table of Contents

Introduction and Overview

Section I: Education

Begin Reading

STEVENS INSTITUTE SERIES ON COMPLEX SYSTEMS AND ENTERPRISES

William B. Rouse, Series Editor

WILLIAM B. ROUSE

Modeling and Visualization of Complex Systems and Enterprises

ELISABETH PATE-CORNELL, WILLIAM B. ROUSE, AND CHARLES M. VEST

Perspectives on Complex Global Challenges: Education, Energy, Healthcare, Security, and Resilience

WILLIAM B. ROUSE

Universities as Complex Enterprises: How Academia Works, Why It Works These Ways, and Where the University Enterprise Is Headed

Perspectives on Complex Global Challenges

Education, Energy, Healthcare, Security and Resilience

Edited By

Elisabeth Paté-Cornell

Stanford University, California, US

William B. Rouse

Stevens Institute of Technology,Hoboken, NJ, US

Charles M. Vest

Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey

Published simultaneously in Canada

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (978) 750-8400, fax (978) 750-4470, or on the web at www.copyright.com. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, (201) 748-6011, fax (201) 748-6008, or online at http://www.wiley.com/go/permission.

Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a professional where appropriate. Neither the publisher nor author shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages.

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data applied for:

ISBN: 9781118984093

TO CHARLES M. VEST

FRIEND, MENTOR, AND INSPIRATION

To his colleagues, his friends, and especially the faculty and students of MIT, of which he was the President from 1990 to 2004, Charles Vest was the ultimate role model. His intellect, his kindness, and his fairness have changed the professional and the personal lives of many around him. His death, in 2013, has been an immense loss, first to his family, and also to the world of academia, to the National Academy of Engineering that he led from 2007 to 2013, and to both of us, Elisabeth Paté-Cornell and Bill Rouse, who had been working with him on this book. The three of us had the vision of gathering the thoughts of a few of the luminaries among our friends who could help us think through some of the most difficult problems that we are facing, and that our children will most likely face as well.

We wanted to pursue this effort to completion, acknowledging Chuck's collaboration with us and hoping that by doing so, we can honor his memory. So we dedicate this book to Charles Vest, and also to his family, and especially to his wife Becky with our respect and our affection.

Contributors

Norman R. Augustine

served as CEO of Lockheed Martin Corporation from 1995 to 1997, following having been CEO of the Martin Marietta Corporation from 1987 to 1995. He served as Under Secretary of the Army from 1975 to 1977. He has been Chairman of the American Red Cross and Chairman of the Defense Science Board and is a former member of the faculty of Princeton University. He is a member of the National Academy of Sciences and former Chairman of the National Academy of Engineering.

Lawrence S. Bacow

served as Chancellor of MIT from 1998 to 2001, as the President of Tufts from 2001 to 2011, as a trustee of Wheaton College from 1998 to 2008, and since 2011 has been a member of the Harvard Corporation, the senior governing body of Harvard University.

Craig R. Barrett

served as CEO of Intel from 1998 to 2005, as well as Chairman until 2009. He is a member and former Chairman of the National Academy of Engineering. He currently serves as President and Chairman of BASIS School Inc., a charter school group.

Michael Batty

is Bartlett Professor of Planning at University College London where he is Chair of the Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis (CASA). Before his current position, he was Professor of City Planning and Dean at the University of Wales at Cardiff and then Director of the National Center for Geographic Information and Analysis at the State University of New York at Buffalo. He is a Fellow of the British Academy (FBA) and the Royal Society (FRS), was awarded the CBE in the Queen's Birthday Honours in 2004, and the 2013 recipient of the Lauréat Prix International de Géographie Vautrin Lud.

Denis A. Cortese

is Foundation Professor, Department of Biomedical Informatics and Director, Healthcare Delivery and Policy Program at Arizona State University. He is also Emeritus President and Chief Executive Officer, Mayo Clinic and a member and former chair of the National Academy of Medicine Roundtable on Value and Science-Driven Healthcare, as well as the Healthcare Leadership Council.

John Deutch

is Emeritus Institute Professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology where he has served as Chairman of the Department of Chemistry, Dean of Science, and Provost. He is chair of the Secretary of Energy Advisory Board, and a member of the National Petroleum Council and the Hamilton Project. He served as Director of Central Intelligence from May 1995 to December 1996. From 1994 to 1995, he served as Deputy Secretary of Defense and served as Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition and Technology from 1993 to 1994. He has also served as Director of Energy Research (1977–1979), Acting Assistant Secretary for Energy Technology (1979), and Undersecretary (1979–80) in the United States Department of Energy.

Jacques S. Gansler

is a Professor Emeritus at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy and he also is the Glenn L. Martin Institute Fellow of Engineering at the University of Maryland, School of Engineering. In addition, he is the founder and CEO of The ARGIS Group (Analytical Research for Government and Industry Solutions) and independent research and consulting firm. He served as Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics from 1997 to 2001. He was Executive Vice President and Corporate Director for TASC from 1977 to 1997. He served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (Materiel Acquisition) from 1972 to 1977. He is a member of the National Academy of Engineering.

Linda Darling-Hammond

is Charles E. Ducommun Professor of Education and founding Director of the Stanford Center for Opportunity Policy in Education (SCOPE) at Stanford University. She was the founding Director of the National Commission for Teaching and America's Future, and served as chair of President Obama's education policy transition team in 2008.

Siegfried S. Hecker

is Professor (Research) in the department of Management Science and Engineering at Stanford University, and a Senior Fellow of the Stanford University Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) of which he was a co-director from 2007 to 2012. He was Director of Los Alamos National Laboratory from 1986 to 1997, a Los Alamos senior fellow until 2000 and co-recipient of the 2009 Enrico Fermi Award. He visited several times the Yongbyon nuclear facility in North Korea and reported its state of advancement to the US Congress in 2010. He is a member and a past councilor of the National Academy of Engineering.

Michael M.E. Johns

is currently Professor of Medicine and Public Health at Emory University, where he served as Chancellor from 2007 until 2012, before which he served as Executive Vice President for Health Affairs, CEO of The Robert W. Woodruff Health Sciences Center, and Chairman of the Board of Emory Healthcare. From 1990 to 1996, Dr Johns was Dean of Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Vice President of the Medical Faculty. He is a Member of the National Academy of Medicine (NAM) and served as a member of the NAM Council.

Henry A. Kissinger

is a German-born American statesman and political scientist. He served as National Security Advisor from 1969 to 1975 and as Secretary of State from 1973 to 1977 in the administrations of Presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford, pioneering the policy of détente with the Soviet Union, orchestrating the opening of relations with the People's Republic of China, and negotiating the Paris Peace Accords, ending American involvement in the Vietnam War. He is a recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize.

Michael E. Leiter

was the Director of the US National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC), having served in the Bush Administration and been retained in the Obama Administration. Before joining NCTC, Leiter served as the Deputy Chief of Staff for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and as the Deputy General Counsel and Assistant Director of the President's Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction. He was with the Department of Justice as an Assistant US Attorney from 2002 to 2005.

Herbert Lin

is Chief Scientist at the Computer Science and Telecommunications Board, National Research Council of the National Academies. Before his NRC service, he was a professional staff member and staff scientist for the House Armed Services Committee from 1986 to 1990, where his portfolio included defense policy and arms control issues.

Elizabeth A. McGlynn

is Director of Kaiser Permanente's Center for Effectiveness and Safety Research (CESR), a virtual center designed to improve the health and well-being of Kaiser's more than ten million members and the public by conducting comparative effectiveness and safety research and implementing findings in policy and practice. Dr McGlynn is an internationally known expert on methods for evaluating the appropriateness, quality, and efficiency of healthcare delivery and has led major initiatives to evaluate health reform options under consideration at the federal and state levels. She chairs the Scientific Advisory Group for the Institute for Healthcare Improvement. McGlynn is a member of the National Academy of Medicine.

Richard A. Meserve

is the President Emeritus of the Carnegie Institution for Science and Senior Of Counsel with Covington & Burling, LLP. He previously served as Chairman of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. He is the Chairman of IAEA's International Nuclear Safety Group and Co-Chairman of DOE's Nuclear Energy Advisory Committee. He is a member and councilor of the National Academy of Engineering.

Lloyd B. Minor

is the Carl and Elizabeth Naumann Dean of Stanford University School of Medicine and a Professor of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery. He is also a Professor of Bioengineering and of Neurobiology, by courtesy, at Stanford University. He was previously the Provost and Senior Vice President for Academic Affairs at The Johns Hopkins University and, before that, Andelot Professor and Director (chair) of the Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine and Otolaryngologist-in-Chief of The Johns Hopkins Hospital. He is a member of the National Academy of Medicine.

Michal C. Moore

is Professor of Energy Economics and Senior Fellow at the School for Public Policy at the University of Calgary and is a visiting Professor of Economics and Systems Engineering at Cornell University. He is a former regulator of the energy industry in California.

Elisabeth Paté-Cornell

is the Burt and Deedee McMurtry Professor of Engineering at Stanford University in the department of Management Science and Engineering, which she chaired from its creation in 2000–2011. She is a past President of the Society for Risk Analysis. She served as a member of the President's (Foreign) Intelligence Advisory Board from 2001 to 2008. She is a member of the National Academy of Engineering and of several boards including InQtel, Draper Laboratory, and Aerospace Corporation.

William J. Perry

is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and the Michael and Barbara Berberian Professor at Stanford University, with a joint appointment in the School of Engineering and the Institute for International Studies. He served as the Secretary of Defense from 1994 to 1997, Deputy Secretary of Defense from 1993 to 1994, and Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering from 1977 to 1981. He is a member of the National Academy of Engineering.

Richard Reed

is Senior Vice President, Disaster Cycle Services, at the American Red Cross. In addition to his current role, Richard most recently served on special assignment to the White House as Deputy Ebola Response Coordinator to support the coordination, management and leadership of the US Government response to the Ebola epidemic. Before assuming his role at the Red Cross, Reed served in the Obama and Bush administrations as Deputy Assistant to the President for Homeland Security, Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Resilience Policy, and Special Assistant to the President for Homeland Security and Director of Continuity. He has held positions in the Department of Veterans Affairs, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and the General Services Administration.

William B. Rouse

is the Alexander Crombie Humphreys Chair of Economics in Engineering at Stevens Institute of Technology, and Director of the university-wide Center for Complex Systems and Enterprises. He is also Professor Emeritus of Industrial and Systems Engineering at the Georgia Institute of Technology. He is a member of the National Academy of Engineering.

Richard Schmalensee

is the John C. Head III Dean, Emeritus, and the Howard W. Johnson Professor of Management and Economics, Emeritus, at the MIT Sloan School of Management. He served on the President's Council of Economic Advisors and currently serves as Chairman of the Board of Resources for the Future.

George P. Shultz

is a distinguished fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. He served as Secretary of State from 1982 to 1989, Secretary of the Treasury from 1972 to 1974, Director of the Office of Management and Budget from 1970 to 1972 and Secretary of Labor from 1969 to 1970. Before entering politics, he was Professor of Economics at MIT and the University of Chicago, serving as Dean of the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business from 1962 to 1969.

Brent Scowcroft

is a retired US Air Force Lieutenant General. He was the US National Security Advisor under US Presidents Gerald Ford and George H. W. Bush. He also served as Military Assistant to President Richard Nixon and as Deputy Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs in the Nixon and Ford administrations. He served as Chairman of the President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board under President George W. Bush from 2001 to 2005.

Robert K. Smoldt

is Associate Director, Healthcare Delivery and Policy Program, Arizona State University and Emeritus Vice President and Chief Administrative Officer, Mayo Clinic. He has been active in the Medical Group Management Association and serves on the Board of Trustees of Catholic Health Initiatives.

William W. Stead

is Chief Strategy Officer at Vanderbilt University Medical Center and McKesson Foundation Professor of Biomedical Informatics/Medicine at Vanderbilt University. He serves on the Council of the National Academy of Medicine, the Division Committee on Engineering and Physical Sciences of the National Academies and the Health and Human Services National Committee for Vital and Health Statistics.

Deborah J. Stipek

is the Judy Koch Professor of Education at Stanford University. She was Dean of the Graduate School of Education from 2001 to 2011. She was a Professor at the Graduate School of Education, University of California, Los Angeles, from 1977 to 2000, a Congressional Science Fellow from 1983 to 1984 and is a member of the National Academy of Education.

Theo Toonen

is Professor in Institutional Governance and Dean of the Faculty of Behavioral, Management, and Social Science (BMS) at Twente University since April 2015. He is former Dean of the Faculty of Technology, Policy, Management (TPM) at Delft University of Technology (2008–2015) and former Dean of the Faculty of Social and Behavioral Science at Leiden University (2003–2008). He has held various advisory positions to the government and also has been a member of the independent Dutch Advisory Board on Water (AcW) under the Chairmanship of his Royal Highness Crown Prince William of Orange (2003–2012).

Richard H. Truly

is a retired Navy vice admiral and former NASA astronaut, flying the Space Shuttles

Enterprise

Columbia

, and

Challenger

. He served as the eighth NASA Administrator, the first commander of Naval Space Command, and as Director of the Georgia Tech Research Institute and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. He is a member of the National Academy of Engineering.

Charles M. Vest

was President Emeritus of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and President Emeritus of the National Academy of Engineering. A mechanical engineer, he previously was Dean of Engineering and Provost at the University of Michigan, and was a trustee of several universities and nonprofit organizations devoted to education, research, and national security.

Alexandros Washburn

is Professor of Design and Director of the CRUXlab at the Stevens Institute of Technology. He is a practicing architect who has served in all levels of government, most recently as Chief Urban Designer under Mayor Michael Bloomberg of New York City. He is the author of

The Nature of Urban Design: A New York Perspective on Resilience

Introduction and Overview

Elisabeth Paté-Cornell, William B. Rouse and Charles M. Vest

Introduction

North America, Europe, and, perhaps to a lesser extent, other parts of the world are awash in debate, conflict, and often vitriol regarding how best to engender a healthy, educated, and productive population that is competitive in the global marketplace. The public–private enterprises engaged in providing education, energy, healthcare, security, and resilience are under scrutiny and stress.

These large-scale public–private systems are very complex and involve rich interactions of behavioral and social phenomena with designed and emergent physical and organizational infrastructures that are increasingly enabled by computer, communications, and other technologies. The range of stakeholders and their sometimes conflicting interests includes the public, industry, government, and in some cases international bodies. These stakeholders are not monolithic as, for example, various segments of the public or of industry may have divergent interests.

We have chosen to focus on five areas – education, energy, healthcare, national security, and urban resilience. These areas are laced with economic, environmental, political, and technology issues. They tend to be confounded by upside benefits and downside risks. Nuclear power is a good example. Much subtler are issues that include immigration and job creation, or the near-term costs versus long-term benefits of prevention and wellness in healthcare. There are overarching debates concerning who pays, who benefits, and who is responsible for risks.

A primary hindrance in these debates is the lack of a shared understanding of these enterprises and contexts, including how well they function, the nature of the real challenges they must address, possible ways to proceed, and risks associated with these endeavors. The needed understanding should also include the geopolitical contexts associated with these issues. Unfortunately, we are bombarded with sound bites purported to provide this understanding, but these polemics often serve no constructive purpose.

The objective of Perspectives on Complex Global Challenges is to bring nonpartisan, well-informed wisdom to bear on these challenges. An impressive range of thought leaders, from various perspectives, both conservative and liberal, was recruited to carefully and thoughtfully relate what we know, what we do not know, opportunities for progress, possible paths forward, and risks associated with each challenge. From their reflections and suggestions, we synthesize the key trade-offs, risks, and opportunities in these turbulent times.

Trade-Offs, Risks, and Opportunities in Turbulent Times

Many of the contributions in this book point to trade-offs, risks, and opportunities inherent to the situation of the United States, as well as Europe, in these turbulent times. Emerging powers and new types of conflicts challenge the country's position as a world leader, especially in Eastern Europe, South East Asia and the Middle East. A global economy, with the inherent vulnerabilities of intertwined financial systems, threatens the stability of both developed and developing countries, yet brings prosperity to many. The US competitiveness, adaptability, and willingness to seize opportunities and to confront long-term problems in a proactive way are keys to maintaining that position.

Turbulences and Risks

The world has always been a turbulent place at different scales: cities, provinces, or empires. But in that respect, several characteristics distinguish this century from previous times. The pace of change has accelerated drastically in the last century. Globalization has tightly linked both risks and opportunities worldwide, and the instant reach of information has shaped immediate perceptions of what would have been ignored earlier, or seen as local problems. The instability of the situation implies a constant change that cannot be captured by a snapshot of the moment. But a few fundamental principles remain.

Economic Turbulences and Political Polarization

After decades of expansion following WWII, a global economic downturn has hit most countries. Among other factors, a number of “bubbles” in global markets, tight links among banks worldwide, and their use of computer programs based on similar principles have caused wide swings in the world financial system. At this point, a slow economic recovery seems underway, but many countries are facing the need to decrease their public spending. Drastic choices thus have to be made exposing, in the United States, a political polarization seldom encountered in its history. On one side, there is a desire to maintain and enhance social programs and public spending. On the other, the emphasis is on the decrease of the government size, role, and budget, and an increase in the freedom of private enterprises with less regulation and reduction of taxes. While the two main parties have collaborated to various degrees in US history, there seems to be few key actors ready to bridge the political gap. As illustrated by this book's contributors, this clash of ideologies affects many aspects of US life, including healthcare, education, energy, national security, and the management of growing (or shrinking) cities.

A healthy ideological debate can stimulate productive discussions at a time when the United States seems to be on the path of a slow recovery. Yet, a certain paralysis has hit the country in its search for a balance between the prosperity of some industries and top income groups, and the living standards of the middle and the lower classes. The income gap has grown significantly, causing a deep sense of insecurity in the less privileged social strata and leading for a while to an “occupy” movement, which, while lacking clear objectives, revealed a profound discontent. The unemployment rate has recently decreased but there is still a certain reluctance to invest in traditionally labor-intensive manufacturing sectors. In the blue-collar labor force, unemployment has been rooted in part in the decline of the US education system, especially at the K-12 and vocational/technical levels, in spite of high costs and a number of reforms. At the same time, the costs of healthcare have skyrocketed for a host of reasons including incentive systems, the costs of new drugs and technologies, and an aging population. Key questions are: can these costs be controlled and who is going to pay?

But first, the resources have to be generated by a productive economy and a strong, stable system. The United States has been a world leader in the past century, in defense, technology, education, and generally in its influence on world matters. Whether it can keep this position in a global world is unclear. It will depend on its ability to educate and take care of its people, innovate and create jobs, use its military force wisely, and preserve its democratic principles. Some of the risks to lose that prominence depend on endogenous forces – for example, the proper functioning of institutions – while others are exogenous factors, out of the US control, but which the country has to manage in a concerted and principled way.

Basic choices and values can allow the United States to avoid that decline. The migration of manufacturing out of the country has been originally motivated by lower labor costs elsewhere, and in some cases, looser regulations. As the world moves toward an economic equilibrium, this migration may revert itself. But the United States needs to seize opportunities to improve its ability to make manufacturing more efficient and bring it back home. Given the technological complexities involved in many such processes, the availability of high-skill workers is critical. It hinges upon the nature and the quality of US education, and also on its ability to retain top foreign workers, leaders, and students that contribute to its economic position.

It also hinges on protecting the US intellectual property. A major strength of the country is its entrepreneurial spirit, its ability to innovate and its capacity to fund the incubation and development of new firms, with big or small ideas. Some countries may develop competitive products independently. Others constantly try to steal the designs and innovation generated in the United States and sometimes market the products first. One way this happens is through the Internet.

Cybersecurity

The Internet, the GPS, and other major cyber systems have brought capabilities unknown thus far, but brought with them new vulnerabilities. Cyberattacks are a relatively recent source of turbulences and concerns. Some involve routine hacking, others political or terrorist activities. Mostly, however, they come from organized crime (e.g., stealing of financial data) or state-sponsored organizations focused on US intellectual property, infrastructure, and defense systems. Given how much of the US economy depends on the Internet and the GPS, a well-targeted cyberattack can be devastating on the national scale. The worldwide nature of the Internet and social networks has thus fueled a new form of instability. The United States is still searching for cyber defenses and a surveillance system that balance individual rights and cybersecurity.

Managing the risks of cyberattacks is both an individual and a collective enterprise. It involves reducing both the chances of a successful attack and the consequences of a defense breach. Sharing information about attacks in the right forum, establishing legal boundaries for an appropriate response, and setting effective lines of defense are part of a global response. A challenge, both legal and practical, is whether and how to make hackers pay a price for their activities and to decide what kind of retaliation would be proportional and appropriate. The problem starts with tracking down the actual source of attack and responding in a measured manner. This is particularly critical against a determined, persistent state-sponsored aggressor if one wants to avoid an escalation of conflict. As with all risk management issues, priorities have to be set, and a balance has to be found between the frictions and costs of risk management measures and their effectiveness in protecting public and private assets.

Terrorism

One of the most drastic changes in American life in the last decades has been the emergence of a new kind of terrorism, which took a new turn in September 2001 with coordinated attacks on the US territory. Since then, the multiple conflicts that affect the Middle East, the spread of Al Qaeda and the emergence of a so-called Islamic State have fueled a new wave of attacks and challenges to the security of Western states. These attacks are a manifestation of a deeper clash of cultures worldwide, rooted in religious, cultural, and political antagonisms that exploded in different forms and places, facilitated by a widespread use of instant communications. In the United States, these attacks have caused a deep sense of insecurity, and triggered a set of government measures that have kept the country relatively safe so far but have deeply affected people's life and psyche. Furthermore, these attacks have been linked to several military campaigns (notably in Iraq and Afghanistan) that have changed the face of war and emphasized the need for different types of weapons in a situation of asymmetric warfare. The economics of defense and military education are thus critical parts of budget choices that the United States has to make.

Given budget limitations, setting priorities among counterterrorism measures is essential since spreading resources evenly across the country and the different kinds of threats, while politically expedient would be clearly inefficient. Terrorist attacks can involve conventional explosives, dirty bombs (with nuclear material), bioattacks, and nuclear warheads. The challenge is to identify before the fact the most vulnerable and important targets and try to thwart the use of the most dangerous weapons. Picking up signals and anticipating terrorists' next steps is the role of both law enforcement and the intelligence community. In that instance, they have to work together. As massive amounts of information are gathered, one issue is to make sure that the privacy of individuals is respected to the greatest extent feasible. Another is that the signals be properly filtered so that the most relevant ones reach in time the decision level – along with the uncertainties that often remain.

One of the greatest risks of terrorist attacks is the explosion of a nuclear device. Facing that threat requires an organized response to the development of nuclear weapons, securing existing nuclear material including spent fuel, and containing nuclear proliferation. One can also argue, as have some of the authors in this book, that dismantling the US nuclear arsenal altogether will provide an example and a motivation for others to follow suit. Yet, given the ever-changing nature of world conflicts, the challenge for the United States is to find a balance between the risks of a nuclear accident and those of deterrence failure. The challenge starts with the control of nuclear material, which has to be generated at various levels of enrichment in the case of uranium, to be used in nuclear power reactors and medical devices, or to build weapons. Securing that material and discouraging the spread of high-level enrichment technologies is thus a security concern.

Energy, Environment, and Global Warming

The energy sector has been one of the most turbulent of the world economy, certainly so since the oil crisis of the seventies and the eighties. The cost of petroleum has fluctuated many times, and after skyrocketing in the last few years, has recently decreased, but for how long? The US dependence on oil imports has made it vulnerable not only to these price variations but also to political instabilities in producing countries. The increase of the production of shale oil in the United States has considerably reduced that vulnerability. At the same time, natural gas has emerged as a less expensive solution but environmental concerns regarding the fracturing of rocks (“fracking”) remain and need to be addressed.

Burning hydrocarbons, oil, coal, but also to a lesser degree, natural gas, presents health and environmental issues associated with emissions of heat-trapping gasses such as carbon dioxide and other pollutants. Global warming is certainly one of the main turbulences on the world horizon. Given the stakes, efforts to curb it are imperative even if many uncertainties remain. One of them is the link between changes in the rate of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and the variation of worldwide temperatures. Furthermore, the consequences are uneven across the planet, as well as in the United States, where different regions will be affected unevenly by changes of precipitations, floods, and droughts, sea-level rise, and the frequency of related natural disasters such as hurricanes. The political challenge is to make now rational decisions under uncertainties about the costs and the benefits of curbing CO2 emissions (how much reduction in temperature increases and in what time frame?). The question is crucial in the developing world, which needs large amounts of energy. Yet, the leadership has to come from developed countries that can afford that emission reduction in a rational and economic way and promote other forms of power generation. Nonpolluting renewables are an essential part of the solution, but so far entail considerable costs. New technologies need to emerge soon, among them energy storage on a large scale.

One solution is thus to build nuclear reactors, which do not pollute in normal production times. There are currently 444 nuclear reactors and 63 reactors under construction worldwide, including 5 in the United States and many more are planned. But the nuclear power industry has been shaken by three major accidents since 1979 and the question of permanent storage of nuclear wastes needs to be resolved effectively and soon. Furthermore, in a highly regulated environment, nuclear power may no longer be competitive with natural gas and its future in the United States is unclear at this time.

Part of the risk of worldwide reactors' construction is that of nuclear proliferation and the dual use of nuclear power generation. Plutonium and enriched uranium can be produced to make warheads and several countries may be constructing nuclear power plants to that end. Managing the risks of nuclear weapons proliferation – as those of cyberattacks – has to be part of an international effort. Whether by setting an example or by other means, the United States alone cannot prevent the stealing and misuse of nuclear products. The problem needs to be addressed in concert with other nations and international entities through economic and diplomatic measures, in the realistic context of other nations' choices. Countries that feel threatened will develop weapons for their defense unless they believe that they will be otherwise protected.

Sustainable Urban Development

Population moves in the last two centuries have triggered, in many places, the explosive growth of urban centers worldwide, often concentrated along the coastlines. Elsewhere, cities such as Detroit have shrunk when their industrial basis eroded at a time where their population was aging and resources were needed to support their pensions.

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