126,99 €
Mehr erfahren.
- Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
- Kategorie: Wissenschaft und neue Technologien
- Sprache: Englisch
One of the major challenges facing the world today is the interaction between demographic changes and development. Rather than the usual view that the population itself is the main problem, Population and Development Issues argues that it is just one factor among many others, such as poverty, illiteracy, poor health, unemployment, the condition of women and climate change. This book analyzes the relationships between the key demographic variables (fertility, morbidity and mortality, migration, etc.) and major development issues, notably education, employment, health, gender, social and geographical inequalities and climate concerns. Bringing together contributions from specialists across every field, it presents empirical data simply and clearly alongside theoretical reflections.
Sie lesen das E-Book in den Legimi-Apps auf:
Seitenzahl: 527
Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2022
Ähnliche
Table of Contents
Cover
Title Page
Copyright
Introduction: Population in the Development Paradigm
I.1. Population and development
I.2. Major development issues
I.3. References
1 The Precursors: The Mercantilists, Malthus, Marx
1.1. Theories and doctrines
1.2. Mercantilism, the population doctrine and policy of royal power
1.3. Malthus, the theorist of demo-economic growth
1.4. Marx yesterday and today
1.5. Conclusion
1.6. References
2 Education, Population and Development
2.1. Introduction
2.2. Education statistics and demography
2.3. Education, population and development
2.4. Conclusion: education and demography
2.5. References
3 Employment and the Informal Economy
3.1. Introduction
3.2. The concept of informal economy and its assessment methods
3.3. Long-term employment trends in the informal economy in Northern Africa
3.4. Conclusion: which transition policies from the informal to the formal economy?
3.5. References
4 Gender Inequalities
4.1. Current theories and debates
4.2. Health and reproductive rights at the heart of demography: economic investment and anthropological breakthroughs
4.3. Gender determinants at the heart of educational supply and demand in Africa
4.4. Conclusion
4.5. References
5 Sex Selection: Public Policies to Balance the Scales?
5.1. Introduction
5.2. Prevalence and evolution of SRB trends
5.3. Public policies against gender-biased sex selection
5.4. Case study: impact of policy on the SRB in Armenia and Vietnam
5.5. Discussion and conclusion
5.6. References
6 Poverty and Inequalities
6.1. Measuring and analyzing poverty and inequalities
6.2. The evolution of poverty
6.3. Poverty in Niger
6.4. Conclusion: toward a new poverty indicator?
6.5. References
7 Mental Health: An Underestimated Development Issue
7.1. Introduction
7.2. Inclusion of mental health in overall health
7.3. Senegal, an emblematic case of the situation in African countries
7.4. Conclusion: a fight that still has to be waged
7.5. References
8 Migration Remittances and Development
8.1. Introduction
8.2. Volume and trends in remittance movements
8.3. The consequences for households: poverty, health, education
8.4. Conclusion: remittances, a development policy instrument
8.5. References
9 Climate Change and Demography
9.1. Introduction
9.2. Climate change as analyzed by the IPCC
9.3. The impacts of climate change on demographic factors
9.4. Trapped populations
9.5. Conclusion
9.6. References
10 Population Policies
10.1. Introduction
10.2. Population policies: processes and mechanisms
10.3. Population policies: empirical evidence
10.4. Conclusion
10.5. References
Conclusion: Is Population Really the Problem?
C.1. The three inequalities
C.2. Controlling half of humanity
C.3. Territorial inequalities: immigration and populism
C.4. Final remarks
C.5. References
List of Authors
Index
Wiley End User License Agreement
List of Tables
Introduction
Table I.1. Presentation of chapters and in-depth case studies
Chapter 2
Table 2.1. Enrollment and completion in primary education
Table 2.2. Enrollment and completion in the upper secondary cycle (second cycle ...
Table 2.3. Enrollment and completion in the upper secondary cycle (second cycle ...
Table 2.4. Participation in higher education and adult literacy (2018) (sources:...
Table 2.5. Mortality indicators and enrollment in 21 Asian countries (sources: l...
Table 2.6. Correlation coefficients between indicators from Table 2.5
Table 2.7. Fertility (number of children per woman) (sources: Demographic and He...
Table 2.8. Fertility and contraceptive use by type of method and educational lev...
Chapter 3
Table 3.1. The components of employment in the informal economy (source: Charmes...
Table 3.2. Employment in the informal economy (from the National Accounts viewpo...
Table 3.3. Criteria for defining the components of informal economy in the four ...
Table 3.4. Evolution of employment in the informal economy as a proportion of no...
Table 3.5. Contribution of the informal sector (without agriculture) to the non-...
Table 3.6. Major components of employment in the informal economy in three North...
Chapter 5
Table 5.1. Latest available estimates of the sex ratio at birth in selected coun...
Table 5.2. Types of policies addressing gender-biased sex selection
Chapter 6
Table 6.1. Deprivation in developing countries (2013–2017 in population %) (sour...
Table 6.2. Evolution of extreme poverty (1990–2013) (source: World Bank)
Table 6.3. Evolution of infant mortality and life expectancy at birth (2000–2018...
Table 6.4. Reproductive health indicators by income level and region (source: Wo...
Table 6.5. Poverty indicators according to household’s sociodemographic characte...
Table 6.6. Poverty indicators depending on labor market characteristics (source:...
Table 6.7. Food insecurity measured by daily calorie intake (source: Oumarou (20...
Chapter 7
Table 7.1. Effects after reassigning neurological disorders, self-inflicted inju...
Table 7.2. Estimated prevalence of mental disorders in Africa (sources: Baxter e...
Table 7.3. Global cost of mental health in 2010 and 2030 (in billions of US doll...
Table 7.4. Economic burden of non-communicable diseases in 2010 (in billions of ...
Chapter 8
Table 8.1. Top 10 remittance-recipient countries (sources: WTO (2013, tab. E.171...
Table 8.2. Expenditure allocation financed by remittances (source: calculations ...
Conclusion
Table C.1 Child labor of minors aged 5–17 years (in millions) (source: ILO (2017...
List of Illustrations
Introduction
Figure I.1. Population growth rate (in %) by income level (2015–2020 average) so...
Figure I.2. Infant mortality by income level (2015–2020 average) source: UN DESA...
Figure I.3. Number of children per woman by income level (2015–2020 average) sou...
Figure I.4. a) Drying of surgical gloves. b) Wastewater disposal problem. source...
Figure I.5. a) A pioneer woman. b) A restricted nuclear family source: UNFPA
Chapter 1
Figure 1.1. Regulation model by nuptiality
Figure 1.2. Exchanges between various sectors and demo-economic growth
Chapter 2
Box 2.1. Definitions of indicators in Tables 2.1–2.4
Figure 2.1. Percentage of children with full immunization depending on the mothe...
Figure 2.2. Number of children depending on the mother’s level of education. For...
Figure 2.3. Age of entry into marriage by educational level. (sources: Demograph...
Figure 2.4. Current contraceptive use. (sources: Demographic and Health Surveys ...
Chapter 3
Figure 3.1. Employment in the non-agricultural informal economy by world regions...
Figure 3.2. Employment in the non-agricultural informal economy by region, class...
Figure 3.3. Trends in employment in the informal economy as a proportion of non-...
Figure 3.4. Trends in the total informal employment (agricultural and non-agricu...
Figure 3.5. Employment trends in the non-agricultural informal economy in North ...
Figure 3.6. Evolution of the informal sector’s share in the non-agricultural GDP...
Figures 3.7. Informality profiles in the four North African countries (shares in...
Figure 3.8. Evolution of trends in the informal economy employment components in...
Chapter 4
Figure 4.1. Countries with an acute shortage of health service providers in the ...
Figure 4.2. Percentage of out-of-school girls of primary school age. (source: UI...
Figure 4.3. Gross Enrollment Ratio of girls in higher education (2017). (source:...
Figure 4.4. Percentage of female teachers in higher education (2017). (source: U...
Figure 4.5. Percentage (%) of women in research (2015). (source: UIS (2017)) For...
Figure 4.6. Research and development expenditure as % of GNP (2015). (source: UI...
Figure 4.7. Education expenditure as a % of total public expenditure (2015). (so...
Chapter 5
Figure 5.1. Policy and SRB trend in Armenia, 1980–2017. For a color version of t...
Figure 5.2. Stated son preference: Are sons or daughters valued more in your fam...
Figure 5.3. Policy and SRB trends, Vietnam, 1980–2017. For a color version of th...
Figure 5.4. The rise in the SRB in Vietnam, 1995–2009. For a color version of th...
Chapter 6
Figure 6.1. Evolution of incidence of poverty (1993–2015). (source: Oumarou 2015...
Chapter 7
Figure 7.1. Cost allocation of non-communicable diseases, by disease, according ...
Figure 7.2. Increase in health assistance between 2000 and 2004 according to maj...
Figure 7.3. Development of health assistance between 1995 and 2015. (source: Cha...
Figure 7.4. Evolution of the morbidity burden of communicable and non-communicab...
Figure 7.5. Location of the mental health supply in Senegal in 2020. (sources: P...
Chapter 8
Figure 8.1. Remittances and other external financial flows. (source: World Bank ...
Figure 8.2. Top 10 remittance-recipient countries in absolute terms and as a per...
Figure 8.3. Top 10 remittance-recipient countries in absolute terms and as a per...
Figure 8.4. Top 10 remittance-recipient countries in absolute terms and as a per...
Figure 8.5. Top 10 remittance-recipient countries in absolute terms and as a per...
Figure 8.6. Top 10 remittance-recipient countries in absolute terms and as a per...
Figure 8.7. Top 10 remittance-recipient countries in absolute terms and as a per...
Chapter 9
Box 9.1. Where to find information?
Figure 9.1. Impacts of climate change on the main determinants of migration, fer...
Figure 9.2. Theories by Malthus and Boserup
Figure 9.3. Variability in the number of malaria cases from 2010 to 2018 in Bots...
Figure 9.4. The links between types of mobility, level of wealth and vulnerabili...
Figure 9.5. Evolution of buildings in an area of Cotonou city (Benin) between 20...
Guide
Cover
Table of Contents
Title Page
Copyright
Introduction
Begin Reading
Conclusion
List of Authors
Index
End User License Agreement
Pages
v
iii
iv
xi
xii
xiii
xiv
xv
xvi
xvii
xviii
xix
xx
xxi
xxii
xxiii
xxiv
xxv
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
SCIENCES
Geography and Demography, Field Director – Denise Pumain
Demography, Subject Head – Brigitte Baccaïni
Population and Development Issues
Coordinated by
Yves Charbit
First published 2022 in Great Britain and the United States by ISTE Ltd and John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, this publication may only be reproduced, stored or transmitted, in any form or by any means, with the prior permission in writing of the publishers, or in the case of reprographic reproduction in accordance with the terms and licenses issued by the CLA. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside these terms should be sent to the publishers at the undermentioned address:
ISTE Ltd27-37 St George’s RoadLondon SW19 4EUUK
www.iste.co.uk
John Wiley & Sons, Inc.111 River StreetHoboken, NJ 07030USA
www.wiley.com
© ISTE Ltd 2022The rights of Yves Charbit to be identified as the author of this work have been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s), contributor(s) or editor(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of ISTE Group.
Library of Congress Control Number: 2021950758
British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication DataA CIP record for this book is available from the British LibraryISBN 978-1-78945-051-4
ERC code:
LS8 Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology
LS8_3 Population biology, population dynamics, population genetics
SH1 Individuals, Markets and Organisations
SH1_3 Development economics, health economics, education economics
SH3 The Social World, Diversity, Population
SH3_8 Population dynamics; households, family and fertility
IntroductionPopulation in the Development Paradigm
Yves CHARBIT
CEPED, University of Paris, France
I.1. Population and development
This book assumes that the reader has some background knowledge of demographic dynamics. In fact, these have been studied in a complementary volume1, the chapters of which focused on major demographic variables (fertility and its regulation, especially nuptiality, contraception and abortion; mortality and morbidity; and finally, international migrations), as well as on their interactions. The current prevailing paradigm of the demographic transition and a more recent theoretical development – the demographic dividend – completed this earlier volume.
In this work, population is considered in relation to major development issues. Within the scope of this brief introduction, it is impossible to account for the immense field of theories analyzing the relationships between population and development. A simple empirical illustration, based on four single indicators, is therefore proposed: one related to development and the other three to demography. The United Nations database (UN DESA 2019) provides five-yearly average values for these indicators, calculated since 1950 for all countries, continents and sub-regions.
Figure I.1.Population growth rate (in %) by income level (2015–2020 average) source: UN DESA (2019)
The development indicator provided by the World Bank ranks countries according to their income level: high (73 countries), upper-middle (54 countries), lower-middle (50 countries) and low (32 countries). In July 2020, the income brackets, in dollars, were as follows: low-income: <1,036; lower-middle income: 1,036–4,045; upper-middle income: 4,046–12,535; high-income: >12,535. The three demographic indicators are population growth rate (Figure I.1), infant mortality (the number of deaths in the last year among children under one year) (see Figure I.2) and the number of children per woman (see Figure I.3). It is important to note that there is a strong relationship between development – as measured by a country’s income level – and the three demographic indicators. When wealth increases, the growth rate decreases, while infant mortality and fertility decrease. For the first two indicators, the decrease is regular across different income brackets. In contrast, low fertility in high-income countries (2.6 children per woman) diverges from the other three categories, whose comparable levels (between 5.5 and 6.6) are twice as high.
Figure I.2.Infant mortality by income level (2015–2020 average) source: UN DESA (2019)
Figure I.3.Number of children per woman by income level (2015–2020 average) source: UN DESA (2019)
Beyond this purely empirical initial observation, the broad question of the factors underpinning the relationships between population and development must be addressed through two questions. How can development reduce mortality? How can it reduce fertility?
I.1.1. Development and the decline in infant mortality
Infant mortality is particularly sensitive to poverty and, more generally, to family living conditions. It is important to draw a distinction between two levels, that of macroeconomic development, which is analyzed at the state level, and that of social development, where the relevant unit of analysis is the family.
At the state level, development enables investment in health, whereas in the absence of development, this is generally not prioritized over other forms of investment. Improved healthcare provision results from the creation of infrastructure: hospitals, health centers and mobile teams to support the most isolated populations. Indeed, in the absence of development, healthcare services are concentrated in large cities, to the detriment of small towns and rural areas. The creation or improvement of transportation, as well as access to drinking water and a functioning sewage and wastewater disposal system all contribute to the reduction of gastrointestinal infections. Finally, if there are more healthcare workers who are better trained and better paid, healthcare can improve significantly.
Figure I.4.a) Drying of surgical gloves. b) Wastewater disposal problem. source: Charbit For a color version of this figure, see www.iste.co.uk/charbit/population.zip
At the family level, development influences the demand for healthcare. There are a number of positive impacts on children’s health from increased incomes. This could be achieved provided that wealth created through development is not monopolized by certain groups at the expense of the mass of the population who could be left in poverty; and further, that families have sufficient resources to be able to devote part of them to their children’s health, in terms of vaccination, medical visits, purchase of medicines, etc. Another positive outcome is the quantitative and qualitative improvement of food: a higher daily calorie intake and increased animal protein in the diet helps to strengthen children’s resistance to disease, thereby increasing their chances for survival. For all of these reasons, infant mortality decreases when economic development occurs. Figure I.4 illustrates the wider problem of infection risks, particularly in urban areas: on the left, poor aseptic techniques (drying of surgical gloves in front of a health center in Guinea); on the right, issues with wastewater disposal (Senegal).
I.1.2. Development and the decline in fertility
As with infant mortality, the development of infrastructure contributes to the reduction of fertility in developing countries, particularly if governments are committed to implementing family planning programs that promote the use of modern contraception methods. However, availability is not sufficient if it does not correspond to demand from the population, because the acceptance of contraception by women and couples involves a fundamentally economic and sociological dimension. Indeed, decline in fertility generally occurs in a context of economic and social development, characterized by a change in women’s status: education, urbanization and the development of the workforce gradually help them to move away from their traditional role in the reproductive sphere. It becomes socially acceptable to use contraception to restrict fertility, especially in cases where the four characteristics of western societies are met: a secularized mentality, confidence in science and technology and, above all, women’s decision-making autonomy.
With economic and social development, women will see their status change and, over time, will no longer limit their aspirations to reproduction. Educated women oppose the traditional roles assigned to them and are instead most interested in personal development. Moreover, since education allows them to access jobs in the modern sector, they will have a salary and will therefore be able to negotiate greater autonomy with respect to their husband, and with respect to their parents in the case of single women. On the other hand, (non-religious) schooling systems convey more egalitarian models, putting these same women in contact with the western nuclear family model, more so than their illiterate counterparts. Finally, from a “technical” point of view, educated women, with better knowledge of their physiology, use modern contraception methods more effectively. For all of these reasons, educated women will be pioneers in their society: some of them are co-decision makers with their husbands on the use of contraception; others often use contraception against the will of their husband and relatives, who see it as a dangerous factor of sexual emancipation.
Figure I.5.a) A pioneer woman. b) A restricted nuclear family source: UNFPA
Figure I.5(a) illustrates – almost to the point of caricature – the profile of these pioneering, educated, urban women who are well integrated into the modern employment sector, and whom others imitate in a process of diffusion. Figure I.5(b) shows that the process in Iran has led to a restricted nuclear family model. Currently, fertility is almost at replacement level (2.15 children per woman in 2020), despite a strict natalist Islam, which has long been hostile toward contraception, abortion and female labor.
This brief mention of the relationship between development and health, and between development and education, certainly does not exhaust the complexity of interactions. The chapters that follow detail the complex and wide-ranging nature of “development issues”.
I.2. Major development issues
Chapter 1 is devoted to prominent authors of the past who, between the 16th and the 19th centuries, laid the foundations for the relationships between population and development. The seven chapters that follow deal with major issues: education (Chapter 2), employment (Chapter 3), gender inequalities (Chapter 4), poverty and social inequalities (Chapter 5), migration and transfers (Chapter 6), climate change (Chapter 9) and population policies (Chapter 10). Chapter 5 addresses the choice of a child’s sex before birth and complements Chapter 4. Chapter 8 focuses on the intergenerational transfers that were analyzed in Chapter 3 of Demographic Dynamics and Development.Chapter 7, which focuses on mental health, complements Chapter 6 of Demographic Dynamics and Development. which centers on physical health. The concluding chapter addresses the complexity of the other factors involved, aside from demography, which calls into question the role of population as the sole obstacle to development.
Table I.1.Presentation of chapters and in-depth case studies
Chapter title
Case study
1. The Precursors: The Mercantilists, Malthus, Marx (Charbit)
The relevance of Marx
2. Education, Population and Development (Bella and Charbit)
Education and demography in Southern and South-Eastern Asia
3. Employment and the Informal Economy (Charmes)
Employment and informal economy in the Maghreb
4. Gender Inequalities (Rabier)
Gender, educational offer and demand in Africa
5. Sex Selection: Public Policies to Balance the Scales (Guilmoto and Rahm)
Armenia and Vietnam
6. Poverty and Inequalities (Charbit, Omrane and Oumarou)
Inequalities in Niger
7. Mental Health: An Underestimated Development Issue (Petit)
Mental health in Senegal
8. Migration Remittances and Development (Feld)
Remittances and household living standards
9. Climate Change and Demography (Henry)
Trapped populations
10. Population Policies (May)
Developing and developed countries
Conclusion. Is Population Really the Problem? (Charbit)
The three inequalities
Typically, each chapter introduction briefly presents the issue, the hypotheses chosen and the sources used. A “general” section provides useful statistical or demographic data, or a typological classification. Where applicable, the following levels are distinguished: world, continents and some of the main sub-regions of the relevant continents. These sections also provide data in accordance with different development levels (developed countries, developing countries and least developed countries). Finally, the chapters explore one or more case studies, listed in Table I.1. These may be centered on a particularly important country, sub-region or sub-theme.
I.2.1. The precursors: the mercantilists, Malthus, Marx
All too often, it is believed that reflection on the relationships between population and development is recent and contemporary, at least, with the sciences of demography and economy that were formed at the end of the 18th century. In fact, long before, with concepts and data at their disposal, the precursors proposed various doctrines and theories, and their writings clearly express the importance of population from a development perspective. Chapter 1 first presents the mercantilist economic theory. From the middle of the 17th century until the end of the 18th century, it was closely associated with European monarchies, particularly under French absolutism. The mercantilists developed a population doctrine based on the idea that a large population, along with a flourishing economy, was indispensable to the Prince’s political power. Then, in 1798, Malthus was the first to have dynamically analyzed the relationships between population and subsistence levels. But contrary to the widely held idea that he was hostile to population growth, careful reading of his writings shows that he proposed an original model of demo-economic growth, extending his initial analyses of the agricultural sector to the industrial and commercial sectors, undoubtedly a clear testimony to the development opportunities offered by the industrial revolution. The third part of the chapter is devoted to Marx, whose descriptions of the functioning of English capitalism, in particular the precariousness and exploitation of the workforce, are still relevant for studying developing countries today.
I.2.2. Education, population and development
Chapter 2 centers on education, a basic human right that should be experienced by everyone, regardless of their status. The right to education for all was first stated in the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights (Article 26). It was later confirmed by other international instruments and programs, legally binding or not. The most recent is the Sustainable Development Program, approved and adopted by the 193 Member States of the United Nations in September 2015. In its 4th Sustainable Development Goal (SDG 4), it calls on governments to ensure access to inclusive and equitable quality education, and to promote lifelong learning opportunities for all. Over time, recognition of the right to education for all in a large number of countries has been accompanied by a significant increase in school enrollment worldwide, which has benefited girls in particular and reduced the gap between them and boys. The chapter first presents a statistical and demographic overview of education by level, with the most recent data issued by the UNESCO Institute for Statistics, updated every year in the “Global Education Monitoring Report”. Taken from a recent study of 21 countries in Southern and Southeast Asia (Charbit and Moussy 2018), the various impacts of the education of women on demographic variables are recalled: mortality, health (namely, the vaccination of children), fertility, nuptiality and contraception. Finally, a summary of the relationship between education and development is proposed on the basis of the widely documented “UNESCO World Report” of 2016: long-term economic growth, social development, participation in political life, conflict reduction and urbanization.
I.2.3. Employment and informal economy
Concepts relating to the informal economy, such as national accounting and working population, were adopted in the early 1990s and supplemented in the early 2000s (Chapter 3). Since then, they have been the subject of regular data collection in an increasing number of countries. The adoption of international definitions has made it possible to unify the still very diverse observation methods, favoring approaches by businesses, households, a mixture of businesses/households or following administrative statistics (as soon as a consensus emerges around a definition based on the absence of benefits from a contributory social protection scheme). Not only does the chapter recall the evolution of concepts and measurement methods, but also the extent of informal employment worldwide and in the main regions. Northern Africa (Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia) offers a particularly privileged field of observation, in the sense that a number of approaches have been tried there, and that longer and more recent time series are available, enabling sufficiently robust comparisons despite national variations and specificities. An overview of the situation and employment trends in the informal economy over the last decades has been drawn up for the four countries in Northern Africa: the definitions and measurement methods in use have been specified, and the precise characteristics have been analyzed. In conclusion, paradoxically, the lack of formal recognition of the informal economy – which would be illegal – does not prevent relatively good knowledge of this same informal economy, and of the supporting policies for the promotion of micro-enterprises, especially those oriented toward the employment of young graduates in the labor market and the creation of income-generating activities for the poorest, rather than consolidating existing activities.
I.2.4. Gender inequalities
Gender relations in the healthcare and education sectors are among the most unequal and are an essential dimension of demographic change (Chapter 4). While global maternal mortality decreased by 45% between 1990 and 2010, and by 41% in Africa, it remains 15 times higher in developing countries than in developed countries. More than 125 million girls and women alive today have been subjected to female genital mutilation (FGM) in 29 countries across Africa and the Middle East. The HIV epidemic still largely affects women, especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Gender stereotypes and patriarchy, a combination of male dominance and the so-called inferior status of women, are serious obstacles to the implementation of public health policies. The sexist discrimination they experience influences their knowledge of their own bodies, their right to seek medical treatment and their financial means to access it. In addition to anthropological discrimination, there is economic discrimination. The poverty of families, wage inequalities between men and women, over-representation of women in the informal labor sector (which is often more exposed and more dangerous), as well as the discrimination they face in order to become financially independent, limit their access to authentic autonomy. The last part of the chapter shows to what extent gender determinants are at the heart of educational supply and demand in Africa. Despite the progress made in education around the world, and in particular in Africa, there are still strong gender imbalances in terms of access, level of education, competences acquired through general and professional training, and opportunities to pursue college and university studies, with girls and women being particularly affected.
I.2.5. Prenatal selection and public policies
One aspect of the relationship between population and development has long been overlooked: the increasing masculinization of births (Chapter 5). Since the 1980s, the traditional preference for sons, declining fertility and access to affordable reproductive technologies have meant that the sex ratio at birth has been male-biased in a number of countries in Asia, the Caucasus and Eastern Europe. Behind this unexpected increase in sex ratio at birth (SRB) lies a fundamental form of gender discrimination: selective abortion of female fetuses. Over 125 million women have “disappeared” around the world – around 4% of the world’s female population – due to a strong preference for boys, with girls being undervalued. This chapter presents an overview of gender selection and the public policies aimed at re-normalizing the male-biased sex ratio and combating sex-based discrimination. Significant progress has been made in recent decades to acknowledge and respond to sex selection, and various national, regional and international programs and policies have been implemented to counterbalance it. In the meantime, sex ratios at birth have started to return to normal in a number of countries. Nevertheless, the impact of anti-selection policies and campaigns on the balance of trends remains poorly understood. The two case studies presented (Armenia and Vietnam) show that the available data, in terms of policy monitoring and evaluation, contribute to a better understanding of the effectiveness of policies and help to identify the multiple, unintended consequences of public action on reproductive behavior and demographic results. More rigorous efforts for monitoring and assessing the policies destined to prevent gender-based prenatal selection are needed in order to accelerate the eradication of harmful practices, and implement the 2030 Development Agenda for women.
I.2.6. Poverty and inequalities
While economic development is assumed to involve social development – improving the living conditions and personal development of individuals and families – today, poverty is one of the major problems many states still have to face (Chapter 6). More precisely, poverty is a marker of inequality between sub-populations in the same country. These relate to gender, education and place of residence; they are also largely cumulative. First, the chapter recalls the various definitions and indicators associated with the term “poverty” that are used in international publications. There has been a gradual shift from poverty in terms of means of living (food survival) to monetary, economic poverty, and then poverty in terms of individual psychological and social development. There are also three dimensions of poverty: severity, incidence and depth. Chapter 6 also analyzes poverty in the continents, in their major regions and classifies world countries according to income level. All of the demographic indicators confirm the importance of a country’s income level. Extreme poverty has decreased considerably in less than a quarter of a century, even in fragile states, although Africa is still a continent where extreme poverty is much more common than elsewhere. For this reason, Niger has been chosen as the case study, given its population growth is the highest in the world (3.9% per year as of now), and the incidence, severity and depth of poverty are significant. The data available on households makes it possible to construct the profiles of those who are most vulnerable to poverty. And in this agricultural Sahelian country, whose food resources are jeopardized by climatic hazards, food insecurity is recurring.
I.2.7. Mental health
Developing countries spend less than 1% of their health budget on mental health, and between 75% and 85% of individuals with serious mental disorders in these regions receive no care at all, although these pathologies affect all social groups (Chapter 7). In most of these countries, mental health is not part of priority health programs (e.g. HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, maternal and child health), nor is it one of the non-communicable diseases that have become major public health issues, such as diabetes or cancer. For the past 30 years, international advocacy for measuring the morbidity burden represented by mental illnesses for states, their direct impact on productivity and economic growth, as well as their associated social costs (marginalization and exclusion) have intensified. After a brief historical review of the spread of psychiatry in colonial times, the emergence of the concept of mental health is discussed. Five major barriers still impede access to quality services for southern populations: the lack of financial resources and political involvement, excessive centralization, the absence of primary mental healthcare, the scarcity of specialized and trained staff, and a deficit in public health expertise among healthcare managers and administrators. A more demographic and anthropological section follows, in which Senegal – because of its history – is used as a particularly heuristic vantage point of mental health in developing countries. As it is elsewhere, mental health is still perceived primarily as a problem of the individual and the family. Poverty and insecurity are major obstacles to gain access to mental healthcare, reinforced by a lack of political will and inadequate investment.
I.2.8. Migration remittances
Money remittances made by migrants are one of the major resources for the countries of origin. Chapter 8 first presents the volumes and trends in global cash flow since 1990 and identifies the countries receiving the largest remittances in volume, then as a percentage of the Gross National Income, and finally as a percentage of exports. The top 10 countries are obviously not the same. Indeed, in a country like India, where the population is vast, many other sources of income contribute to the Domestic Product; the opposite is true in small countries, such as Haiti, with no other resources than to send a portion of its working population abroad. A detailed analysis identifies 10 countries where remittances are the most important in each major world region. This statistical review concludes with a discussion of the positive and negative effects of remittances on the economic growth rate, which reveals discrepancies between the available studies, either theoretical or empirical. The chapter then shifts from the macroeconomic level to the microeconomic level of households in the countries of origin receiving remittances from migrants working abroad. While it is true that remittances reduce the extent and intensity of poverty, researchers diverge on the reduction or exacerbation of inequalities. The debate on the use of migration income revolves around the question of whether it is squandered on lavish spending or contributes to social development by making resources available for health, housing needs or education. A World Bank survey of five countries in Western and Eastern Africa provides factual data that makes it possible to compare the use of remittances from migrants residing outside of Africa to another country on the continent, and finally from internal migrants sending money to the countries considered.
I.2.9. Climate change
Over recent decades, scientific knowledge has accumulated to a great extent, confirming the concerns expressed by the Meadows report of 1972. Chapter 9 presents the main impacts of environmental changes on demographic factors, established through the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) reports, currently the main source of scientific knowledge on climate change. This choice, although too restrictive according to some specialists, offers a broad view on this vast subject. The geography of climate change helps to better understand spatial inequalities. The complexity of the mechanisms studied is highlighted: correctly describing the parameters, accurately understanding the mechanisms and adequately modeling future changes and their effects are precarious exercises. The second part of the chapter discusses the impacts of climate change on demographic factors: fertility and its inevitable inertia, mortality and health, and finally migrations, probably the subject most often mentioned. The in-depth case study focuses on so-called trapped populations. This term refers to those who are seriously vulnerable to climate change, but too poor to adequately cope with it.
I.2.10. Population policies
Are population policies useful or not? What is their contribution to the Development Goals? Chapter 10 focuses on the policy reform process (the adopted policy “model”), policy design and implementation, policy actors and stakeholders, political institutions (national and international, or transnational) and the monitoring and evaluation of policies (i.e. the impact of population policies). These different aspects are covered with reference to the main world regions and in light of the internationalization of population issues, for example international population conferences, as well as international or transnational institutions dealing with population and development issues. The second, more empirical part is based on experiences in the design, implementation and evaluation of population policies. Three main concrete examples are covered and developed in this section. First, a comparison between Latin America, SSA and Asia, with regard to the political models adopted in each region (top-down, state-driven policies in Asia; policies spearheaded by NGOs and the private sector in Latin America; and a mixed model gradually adopted in SSA). Second, the coercive approach (China, India in 1975–1977, etc.) is compared to the liberal approach in Asia, the latter offering similar, if not better, results to the first. Third, it refers to the ongoing debate around the first demographic dividend and the possibility of replicating it in SSA, inspired by the Eastern Asia model.
I.2.11. Is population really the problem?
A reflection on the real importance of the population as a factor for non-development concludes the book. According to the classic neo-Malthusian view, population growth that is too rapid is a key factor of poverty. This chapter shows that the relationships between population and development could benefit from being analyzed in relation to three types of inequality: gender, economic and territorial. Gender inequalities, visible in wage differentials, professional careers or political roles, lead to the centuries-old domination of women by men within patriarchal societies. It is particularly relevant to the control over their sexuality and fertility. Economic inequalities refer to the question of wealth distribution. Regardless of whether population growth is fast or slow, it all comes down to power negotiation, the balance of power between groups within a country, or the relationships between developed and developing countries. Marx strongly conceptualized these inequalities in 1867 in Capital. His analyses regarding the intensification of workforce exploitation are completely relevant to the present day. Territorial inequalities point to several realities such as development differences between cities and rural areas (not covered in this book but in another of the series). The chapter focuses on migration from poor countries to rich countries and, more specifically, on the political dimension of migratory flows. What has recently emerged, especially in Europe, is the presence of a form of populism exploiting the old xenophobic and racist backdrop, which implies the outright rejection of foreign people. This means the question of non-development goes beyond the mere limits of demography, which is only one factor among others.
I.3. References
Charbit, Y. and Mousy, H. (eds) (2018). Demographic Change and Implications for Education Policy: Three Country Case Studies from Asia. UNESCO/IEPP, Paris.
UN DESA (2019). World Population Prospects 2019. Key Findings and Advanced Tables. Report, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, New York.
1
Charbit, Y. (ed.) (2021).
Demographic Dynamics and Development.
ISTE Ltd, London, and John Wiley & Sons, New York.
1The Precursors: The Mercantilists, Malthus, Marx
Yves CHARBIT
CEPED, University of Paris, France
1.1. Theories and doctrines
If the great authors from the past still deserve our attention today, it is because they had a global vision of the problems raised by the population and they developed original and strikingly coherent intellectual constructions to reflect this. Depending on the data at their disposal at the time, their thoughts could (or not) be solidly grounded on the empirical observation of major demographic variables: nuptiality, fertility, mortality and migrations. This consistency was both theoretical and doctrinal. It should be noted that in terms of population, theories consist of a set of propositions presenting a certain degree of generality, organized as a coherent system and likely to be formalized under a law (in this case, called a population law), empirically verifiable in different contexts. Most often, demographers rely on the theory of the demographic transition, the only global paradigm in this discipline. A doctrine is a set of normative arguments on population, which defines the goals to be attained, be they global (population growth or slowdown) or specific to major demographic variables (most often fertility, nuptiality, mortality or migration). Doctrines translate a system for explaining the world, an ideology. In this sense, they are the carriers of values that make up a system and aim to provide those they are destined to – in general, rulers – with satisfactory answers to social problems related to demographic behavior, for example, the consequences of too high fertility, too rapid urbanization and as background components, the triple constraint any society is confronted to: demographic reproduction, ensuring economic survival, finding a political organization system. The reflection about population can therefore be interpreted as the search for the best solution to the concrete problems encountered at the time, and as a consequence, what is expressed about populations and their dynamics is inseparable from the political and economic issues and challenges from the past1.
The goal of this chapter is to highlight the internal coherence of the so-called mercantilist school of thought, and two major authors, Malthus and Marx. Mercantilists are a perfect example of the instrumentalization of population by political power (section 1.2). Malthus was the first to systematically combine doctrine and theory, and model the interactions between demographic variables and macroeconomic analysis. His thoughts on population and development issues are still referred to to this day (section 1.3). The construction proposed by Marx is a complete break from Malthus’s reflection, but is just as essential as a grid for analyzing demographic dynamics in the context of current neoliberal capitalism. As it remains largely unknown, this chapter gives it an important place (section 1.4).
1.2. Mercantilism, the population doctrine and policy of royal power
Mercantilism, which appeared at the end of the 15th century and was still no more than a “set of poorly organized concepts” (Heckscher 1935) at the start of the 16th century, became the most influential doctrine in Europe by the end of the century. Its implementation can be explained by the emergence of large European States. Let us briefly discuss this historical context.
1.2.1. Mercantilism and the modern state
The great discoveries at the end of the 15th and 16th centuries were a decisive factor. The Portuguese, with Vasco da Gama, established themselves in India in 1503 and traded precious metals and spices, thus making huge profits. The Spaniards conquered Mexico City in 1519–1522, and Peru in 1532–1536. The major consequence was a gold influx starting in 1503 and a silver influx from 1545 onward. Between 1493 and 1520 Europe produced 800 kilograms of gold and 47,000 kilograms of silver, and between 1545 and 1560 the New World provided 8,510 and 311,600 kilograms, respectively, mainly due to the discovery of the Potosi mines in Peru in 1545. In less than 60 years (1503–1560), the imports of precious metals into Spain were multiplied by seven. The induced purchasing power resulted in an inflation rate of the same order, due to the lack of a supply response. Mercantilism focused on developing a supply of industrial goods to exchange for precious metals. In France, the political economy was pushed to its extreme with Colbertism and the organization of large state-driven industries. However, “although the wealth plundered from the New World filled the king’s treasury, where the absolutist monarchy was less strong, as in England, it benefited commercial interests ‘outside of the royal circle’” (Acemoglu et al. 2005, p. 563).
These various elements, succinctly mentioned here, are decisive for understanding population-related considerations. Mercantilists were English, German, Swedish, Spanish or Italian, thus revealing a vast European movement (Cole 1931, 1939, 1943; Heckscher 1935; Bog 1969; Rothbard 1995), but it was in France that they were especially influential. Following Schumpeter (1954), a distinction should be made between the contribution of the “advisers and administrators” – the practitioners who played a prominent role in royal power, with two leading great ministers in France, Richelieu and especially Colbert2 – and that of the “doctrinaires” (Antoine de Montchrestien, inventor of the term political economy). Colbert (1619–1683) occupies a unique place, “that of a man of action, invested with power, who accepted the concepts of mercantilism, as the natural and logical way to achieve the desired end: a powerful and wealthy France, united under a glorious monarch” (Cole 1939, p. 355). Mercantilism can be seen in the kingdom’s economic policy (Heckscher 1935; Bog 1969; Coleman 1969; Viner 1969). For example, the larger the population, the lower the wages, making exports more competitive. This is precisely the current Chinese model of development.
The mercantilists’ arguments are nonetheless fraught with three weaknesses. While they were unanimous in desiring a population size as voluminous as possible, they overlooked the factors determining it (means of subsistence, employment), unlike the conceptualization of classic political economy which, notably with Smith and Malthus, focused on labor demand. Second, there was a clear contradiction with the idea that the Prince’s wealth depended on that of his subjects. In 1622, Malynes opened his treatise on The Maintenance of Free Trade by recalling that “a King is miserable (how rich soever he be) if he raignes over a poore people, and that, that Kingdome is not able to subsist (how rich and potent soever the people be) if the King bee not able to maintain his estate … [All this is] depending upon Traffick and Trade” (Malynes 1622).
Finally, the purely demographic argument became immediately problematic: the population only conveyed potential wealth, but did not become a resource for the kingdom unless it was economically or politically valued. Confronted with the problem of poverty, the mercantilists took action to meet three goals: charitable, political and economic. The relief from poverty, ensuring order in the kingdom, putting an idle population to work were by no means contradictory, but quite the opposite, and, from the 16th century onward, political power denounced the criminality related to vagrancy and idleness, and recommended putting “able-bodied beggars” to work.
1.2.2. A populationist doctrine
The mercantilists were populationists for two major reasons, one economic, the other political: an abundant workforce was necessary for national industry, whereas a numerous population strengthened the country’s military potential. Thus emerged a population-economic-political triangle, with populationism in its center, a concept which is now defined. This doctrine is diametrically opposed to Malthusianism, in that it boils down to advocating for a large population. Strictly speaking, population is measured in a purely static manner: a high number of inhabitants are desirable for a given country. But, implicitly or explicitly, the populationist argument unfolds and becomes richer: with the workforce being intuitively related to the territory, a high density is considered preferable to a sparse population. Just as spontaneously, a large population is assumed to be young, which naturally leads to a dynamic vision: a population whose pyramid has a very wide base actually has a high reproductive potential. Then, insofar as the future is somehow guaranteed by fertility, populationism is favorable to an intense and early nuptiality: if all women get married and do so while still being young, fertility will approach a biological maximum. But securing the future also means preventing high mortality, especially among children, who are the most fragile, as the future of the country rests on them. Finally, we can strengthen the population by appealing to the demographic reserve of immigration (regarding the control of the workforce in France, refer to Levasseur (1859)). Finally, the populationist doctrine takes the main demographic flows (fertility, nuptiality, mortality and immigration) and structures (age-sex distribution structures, family) into account, all in relation to an implicit political entity: the state and the territory over which its sovereignty is exercised, including the colonies. Of course, this depends on current knowledge of the demographic structures and variables, and on the degree of doctrinal or theoretical sophistication of the question of population.
This populationist doctrine did not really lead to a systematic population policy, in the sense of an action modifying each of the demographic variables. In terms of health and mortality, the fight against infant mortality was non-existent because in these deeply religious societies, “God called little children to him”, a fatalist approach which we still find in the least developed countries. The main problem to be solved was that of epidemics, which translated into quarantine measures, the only way to avoid contagion. The control of nuptiality was justified by religious considerations. The enhancement of virginity (the mystic marriage with Christ) implied the prohibition of premarital sex. The sacred character of marriage had two corollaries, its indissolubility, hence the prohibition of divorce, and the repression of adultery; political power thus relied on the Church to control the behavior of the subjects. Finally, mobility showed the omnipotence of the King over its subjects. In France, Colbertism, which was an extremely protectionist industrialization policy, had migratory implications (recruitment of foreign craftsmen with rare skills) which evoked Canada’s current immigration policy. Colbert implemented a policy to populate the colonies, which can be explained, as will be shown, by imperialist rivalries with other European States, foreshadowing later ones in the 19th century. Even if current population policies are in line with this dialectic among political power, economy and population, a major difference should be highlighted. The rights of the individuals were completely ignored in the past. This is clearly evidenced in the similarities and differences with the current conceptualization of international mobility. The call for a qualified foreign workforce is comparable to current “selected immigration policies”, but unlike today, it had no populationist design. As for emigration, colonizing expansionism has nothing to do with the motivations of destitute Europeans who fled Germany, Sweden, Ireland, Italy and Russia in the 19th century, in the hope of making their fortune in the North American El Dorado. With this exception, the mercantilists were precursors.
To conclude, let us observe that individual responsibility in matters of procreation, which seems obvious nowadays, was totally absent from demographic thought, because the Prince’s subjects did not count as such, but constituted an amorphous mass considered as nothing more than an asset of power next to natural resources. Taking population into account only in its relationship to the Prince, the populationist doctrine of the 16th and 17th centuries spontaneously emphasized the “best interests” of the Kingdom, and considered it obvious for individuals to submit to it.
1.2.3. The inevitable historical decline of mercantilism
But then, what can explain the total decline of mercantilism in the 18th century? Two factors account for this. Contrary to the honor-driven ethics of the aristocracy, the bourgeoisie, as an emerging class strongly centered on the accumulation of wealth and individual entrepreneurship, came up against the persnickety regulations of mercantilism. As mercantilism was closely linked to absolutism, the struggle of the bourgeoisie was both economic and political and it triumphed in England with the Parliament’s control over royal power during the Glorious Revolution of 1688. At the same time, the progress of political economy, against a background of utilitarian moral philosophy, and the earliest beginnings of the analysis of demographic dynamics characterized the 18th century. All power-centered analyses faded away behind a doctrinal theoretical construction in individual demographic terms. Next to Adam Smith who actually founded classical political economy, Malthus revolutionized the thoughts on population at the theoretical and doctrinal levels.
1.3. Malthus, the theorist of demo-economic growth
Malthus (1766–1834) is the most famous of the precursors of modern demographic thought, in particular thanks to his conceptualization of demographic dynamics. But his work poses a serious problem. A superficial reading of his work, hackneyed since 1798, the date of publication of his first work (Essay on the Principle of Population), forged a simplistic vulgate according to which he was hostile to population growth. In reality, an immense misunderstanding surrounds his work, because, as is often the case with great thinkers, he is often quoted without having been actually read, something which accounts for the serious misinterpretation: far from denouncing the risk of overpopulation, Malthus proposed a deeply original demo-economic growth model3. This angle has remained almost completely misunderstood, due to the pseudo-scientific arguments and ideological assertions which have not ceased, throughout the centuries, to be brought forward in his name, invoked as supreme authority.
1.3.1. The consequences of demographic dynamics: poverty or increased agricultural production?
In 1798, Malthus published his Essay on the Principle of Population, where he asserted that population growth is governed by the population principle (in practice, the sexual instinct). Without any obstacles, the population grows following a geometrical progression, doubling every 25 years: 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64 million people. This growth, he wrote, unfolds infinitely faster than that of the means of subsistence to ensure survival, which, at best, increases following an arithmetic progression: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 (e.g. millions of tons of wheat). The imbalance was certainly only potential because the population surplus was immediately punished by starvation. This is what has been identified as the first mortality regulatory model by Charbit (2009).
But what has often been left in the dark is that a few pages ahead in the same chapter of the Essay on the Principle of Population, Malthus developed a second demographic and economic model of permanent growth for the agricultural sector, in total contradiction with the assertion of the first model, according to which the ceiling of subsistence necessarily slowed down population growth. Since the publication of the first essay in 1798, the demo-economic dimension has remained quite clear, even if at that moment Malthus believed that it was always mortality that prevailed (first model), and this only among the poorest classes. For the rest of the population, particularly for those relying on agriculture, the postponement of marriages and births, when harvests are poor, became the engine of simple short-term fluctuations in population growth. In the first essay, as was the case for all classical economists, his conception of dynamics was reduced to the analysis of fluctuations around one point of equilibrium in distinct markets: here, labor and agricultural production, but this was not the same in his later works. Let the concepts relating to the labor market and their demographic implications be briefly recalled: workers, in agriculture (or industry, for that matter), offer their work: if the population increases, the labor supply will follow. Companies demand labor for production, and wages are the point of intersection between the supply curve and the demand curve. For classic economists, economy governs demography. Malthus formulated the demo-economic dynamic as follows:
We will suppose the means of subsistence in any country just equal to the easy support of its inhabitants. The constant effort towards population, which is found to act even in the most vicious societies, increases the number of people before the means of subsistence are increased. The food therefore which before supported seven millions must now be divided among seven millions and a half or eight millions. The poor consequently must live much worse, and many of them be reduced to severe distress. The number of laborers also being above the proportion of the work in the market, the price of labor must tend toward a decrease, while the price of provisions would at the same time tend to rise. The laborer therefore must work harder to earn the same as he did before. During this season of distress, the discouragements to marriage, and the difficulty of rearing a family are so great that population is at a stand. In the meantime the cheapness of labor, the plenty of laborers, and the necessity of an increased industry amongst them, encourage cultivators to employ more labor upon their land, to turn up fresh soil, and to manure and improve more completely what is already in tillage, till ultimately the means of subsistence become in the same proportion to the population as at the period from which we set out. The situation of the laborer being then again tolerably comfortable, the restraints to population are in some degree loosened, and the same retrograde and progressive movements with respect to happiness are repeated. (Malthus 1970a, p. 77)
This reasoning has been illustrated in Figure 1.1.
Figure 1.1.Regulation model by nuptiality
In a nutshell, mortality no longer plays any role and above all, no decrease in the population is observed. On the contrary, short-term fluctuations are part of a long-term growth movement. It is the population principle, an independent variable, which induces the growth of agricultural production. Malthus therefore very clearly proposed an explanation of the demographic slowdown through nuptiality. Was this variable relevant and had mortality lost its role as a positive check? The quality of the observation deserves to be stressed, because he caught a glimpse of the European model of nuptiality described by Hajnal in 1953.
