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- Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
- Kategorie: Wissenschaft und neue Technologien
- Sprache: Englisch
All the tools needed to perform a thorough risk assessment--whether you're working in insurance, forensics, engineering, or public safety Risk analysis is the method of analyzing the dangers to individuals, businesses, and government agencies posed by potential natural and man-made hazards. The central task of the risk assessor is predicting the success of a project. This includes isolating the entire spectrum of adverse events that can derail a project or threaten the health and safety of individuals, organizations, and the environment. Designed as a practical, in-the-field toolkit, Risk Assessment details every aspect of how a risk assessment is performed, showing the proper tool to be used at various steps in the process, as well as locating the tool that best fits the risk assessment task at hand. Examining not only the very nature of risks and consequences, with fascinating historical examples, the book progresses from simple to more complex risk assessment techniques used by the authors in their daily work, all presented in a form that can be readily adapted to any number of real-life situations: * Ecological Risk Assessment * Task Analysis Techniques * Preliminary Hazards Analysis * Failure Mode and Effects Analysis * Human Reliability Analysis * Critical Incident Technique * Event Tree and Decision Tree Analysis * Basic Fault Tree Analysis Technique * Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) * Vulnerability Analysis Technique * Qualitative and Quantitative Research Methods Used in Risk Assessment With numerous industry-specific case studies, as well as additional case studies for risk assessments for a restaurant and a process plant, the book provides readers with complete examples of how each of the techniques can be used in a variety of real-world situations. Including downloadable worksheets and other useful assessment materials, as well as guidance on using PRA software, this unparalleled reference offers all the tools and techniques needed to conduct a thorough and accurate assessment of risk.
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Seitenzahl: 447
Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2012
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Table of Contents
Title Page
Copyright
List of Figures
List of Tables
Acknowledgments
Chapter 1: Introduction to Risk Assessment
1.1 Terminology
1.2 Performing Risk Assessments
1.3 Risk Assessment Team
References
Chapter 2: Risk Perception
2.1 Knowledge Level
References
Chapter 3: Risks and Consequences
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Risk and Consequence
3.3 Credible Consequences
3.4 Summary
References
Chapter 4: Ecological Risk Assessment
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Deep Water Horizon
4.3 Love Canal
4.4 Minimata Methylmercury
4.5 Agent Orange
4.6 Seveso, Italy
4.7 Risk of Ecological Disasters
4.8 Ecological Risk Assessment
4.9 Summary
References
Chapter 5: Task Analysis Techniques
5.1 What Is Task Analysis?
5.2 Why A Task Analysis?
5.3 When To Use Task Analysis?
5.4 Task Analysis Process
References
Chapter 6: Preliminary Hazards Analysis
6.1 Description
6.2 Using Process Hazard for Procedure Design
6.3 Using PHA for Preliminary Product Design
6.4 Summary
References
Chapter 7: Primer on Probability and Statistics
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Probability Theory
7.3 Combining Probabilities
7.4 Conditional Probability
7.5 Probability Distributions
7.6 Using Probability
7.7 Summary
References
Chapter 8: Developing Probabilities
8.1 Risk Assessment Data
8.2 Overall Summary
References
Chapter 9: Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
9.1 Introduction
9.2 Summary
References
Chapter 10: Human Reliability Analyses
10.1 Introduction
10.2 Task Analysis
10.3 HRA Modeling
10.4 Quantifying Human Error Probability (HEP)
10.5 Documentation
10.6 Use of Human Reliability Analysis Techniques for Analyzing Procedures
References
Chapter 11: Critical Incident Technique
11.1 Introduction
11.2 Method
11.3 Building on the Results of a Critical Incident Technique Session
11.4 Summary
References
Chapter 12: Event Tree and Decision Tree Analysis
12.1 Event Trees
12.2 Decision Trees
12.3 Case Study: Chernobyl
12.4 Summary
References
Chapter 13: Critical Function Analysis
13.1 Introduction
13.2 Critical Functions
13.3 Conducting a Critical Function Analysis
13.4 Summary
References
Chapter 14: Basic Fault Tree Analysis Technique
14.1 History
14.2 Application
14.3 Fault Tree Construction
14.4 Event Symbols
14.5 Logic Gates
14.6 Analysis Procedure
14.7 Examples of Fault Tree Analysis
14.8 Summary
References
Chapter 15: Probabilistic Risk Assessment
15.1 Description
15.2 Requirements of the Risk Assessment
15.3 Simplified PRA Procedure
15.4 Hazard Identification and Evaluation
15.5 Qualitative Risk Assessment
15.6 Quantitative Risk Assessment
15.7 Uses of PRA
15.8 Conclusion
References
Chapter 16: Qualitative and Quantitative Research Methods Used in Risk Assessment
16.1 What Is Qualitative Research?
16.2 Quantitative
16.3 Risk Assessment Perspective
16.4 Conclusion
References
Chapter 17: Vulnerability Analysis Technique
17.1 Introduction
17.2 Case Study 1: Intruder
17.3 Case Study 2: Multipurpose Academic Building
Reference
Chapter 18: Developing Risk Model for Aviation Inspection and Maintenance Tasks
18.1 Introduction
18.2 Failure Mode and Effect Analysis
18.3 Event Tree and Fault Tree Analysis
18.4 Summary
References
Chapter 19: Risk Assessment and Community Planning
19.1 Introduction
19.2 Example Analysis
19.3 Summary
References
Chapter 20: Risk of an Epidemic
20.1 Introduction
20.2 Plague Example
20.3 Tularemia Example
20.4 Anthrax Example
20.5 Ebola Example
20.6 Smallpox Example
20.7 TB Example
20.8 Typhoid Fever Example
20.9 Influenza Example
20.10 Example of Measles, Mumps, and Rubella
20.11 Polio Example
20.12 Pertussis (Whooping Cough)
20.13 Cholera Example
20.14 Summary
References
Chapter 21: Process Plant Risk Assessment Example
21.1 Introduction
21.2 Example Analysis
21.3 Summary
References
Chapter 22: Industry Specific Case Studies
22.1 Case Study 1: Overview
22.2 Case Study 2: Overview
22.3 Case Study 3: Overview
22.4 Case Study 4: Overview
References
Chapter 23: Restaurant Risk Assessment Case Study
23.1 Introduction
Glossary
Acronyms
Index
Copyright 2012 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved
Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey
Published simultaneously in Canada
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (978) 750-8400, fax (978) 750-4470, or on the web at www.copyright.com. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, (201) 748-6011, fax (201) 748-6008, or online at http://www.wiley.com/go/permission.
Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a professional where appropriate. Neither the publisher nor author shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages.
For general information on our other products and services or for technical support, please contact our Customer Care Department within the United States at (800) 762-2974, outside the United States at (317) 572-3993 or fax (317) 572-4002.
Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats. Some content that appears in print may not be available in electronic formats. For more information about Wiley products, visit our web site at www.wiley.com.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data:
Ostrom, Lee T., author.
Risk assessment : tools, techniques, and their applications / Lee T. Ostrom, Cheryl A. Wilhelmsen.
pages cm
Includes index.
ISBN 978-0-470-89203-9 (hardback)
1. Risk assessment–Statistical methods. 2. Probabilities.
I. Wilhelmsen, Cheryl A., 1933- author. II. Title.
QA273.O74 2012
361.1–dc23
2012020141
List of Figures
1.1
Bathtub curve
5
4.1
Yeast growth
27
4.2
ERA process flow (26)
44
4.3
Proposed layout of PPI west coast location
46
4.4
Example conceptual model for proposed PPI
51
5.1
Hierarchical task analysis diagram
61
5.2
Time line
62
5.3
Operational sequence diagram
62
6.1
Infant crib
77
7.1
Discrete distribution
89
7.2
Tree diagrams of coin flip
95
7.3
Tree diagram of being dealt two hearts
96
8.1
Binning failures
102
8.2
Relative probability scale
112
8.3
First-round voting
113
8.4
Results of the second round
114
10.1
SCRAM actions for Verify Rods Inserted. The operations personnel should validate this sequence of steps and the sequence changed or notes added as needed
141
10.2
HRA event tree method
142
10.3
Verify Rods Inserted
143
10.4
Another view of Verified Rods
144
10.5
HRA event structure of coolant flush procedure
150
10.6
Modified event tree
151
11.1
Process map from interview
156
11.2
Process map symbols
157
11.3
Generic process map for trade group
158
11.4
Simple incident process map
159
12.1
Event tree
164
12.2
Event tree with path probabilities
165
12.3
Event tree for a portion of a small-break LOCA
166
12.4
Event tree for Tulsa event figure
168
12.5
Decision tree 1 format
169
12.6
Decision tree 2
170
12.7
Decision tree 3
175
12.8
Chernobyl event sequence
178
13.1
Interconnection of critical functions
189
13.2
Flight during an engine failure event
189
13.3
Critical functional analysis for convenience store
194
13.4
Critical functional analysis of a chemical reactor system
195
13.5
Critical functions during process upset
196
13.6
Rural county critical functions
200
14.1
Switches representing AND gates
208
14.2
Switches representing OR gates
208
14.3
Fault tree analysis of coolant flushing task
214
14.4
Partial fault tree of sprinkler system failure
216
14.5
Fault tree for success model
216
14.6
Fault tree for TAM Linhas Aereas Flight 3054
220
16.1
Quantitative research step process
239
16.2
Investigation cycle
242
16.3
Example of the design for the visual crack study given to inspectors (12)
246
18.1
Event tree
287
18.2
Event tree with path probabilities
287
18.3
Example fault tree
290
19.1
General layout of the Medium City
297
19.2
Fault tree for chemical release event for location A
303
19.3
Fault tree for chemical release event for location C
306
20.1
Simplified cholera epidemic fault tree
310
21.1
Plant diagram
329
21.2
Fault tree for failing to pump chemical A into the reactor
339
21.3
Fault tree for a VAD chemical batch
340
21.4
Sample fault tree for chemical A or B spill
341
21.5
Sample fault tree for ignition source
342
22.1
Robot arm and unitized doses of medications
347
22.2
Station where robot arm drops unitized doses in bag for delivery to patients
348
22.3
Unitized doses of medication on the pick rack
348
22.4
Unitized dose packaging. (a) Step 1: drug is selected. (b) Step 2: pills are poured onto packaging machine. (c) Step 3: pills are loaded into hopper. (d) Step 4: pills are packaged
350
22.5
Fault tree analysis
352
22.6
Moving fast
355
22.7
F-16s up close
356
22.8
Process flow for hydrazine leak
358
22.9
Event tree
374
22.10
Food safety fault tree 1
374
22.11
Food safety fault tree 2
375
List of Tables
1.1
Risk Assessment Tools
8
4.1
Farm Chemicals Found in the Soil on Proposed Building Site
46
4.2
Chemicals Used to Manufacture Widget A
48
5.1
Required Types of Information
59
5.2
Methods of Collecting Information
60
5.3
Examples of Data Recording
61
5.4
Analysis Techniques
63
6.1
Example of Hazard List for Grill
70
6.2
Example of Hazard List
71
6.3
Examples of Hazardous Energy Sources
72
6.4
Analysis of Procedure
74
6.5
Partial PHA of Infant Crib
78
7.1
Dice Probabilities
83
7.2
Probabilities of Dice Events
84
7.3
Probabilities of Second Round
85
7.4
Dice Matrix
93
8.1
Example Failure Rate Data
99
8.2
Hardware Failure Data
101
8.3
Binning of the Data
102
8.4
Accident Probabilities
104
8.5
Space Shuttle Flight Stats
104
9.1
FMEA
121
9.2
Process Steps
122
9.3
Failure Modes
122
9.4
Effect of Potential Failures
123
9.5
Potential Causes of the Failures
124
9.6
Control Measures
127
9.7
Criticality
129
9.8
Example of a Risk Matrix
130
9.9
Criticality Analysis
131
10.1
Recovery Action
142
10.2
THERP Tables
145
10.3
Control Switches
145
10.4
Total HEP Calculations
147
12.1
Accident Sequence
164
12.2
Event Sequence with Probabilities
165
12.3
Decision Tree 1 Analysis
170
12.4
Accident Classification and Associated Cost
172
12.5
Probability of Accidents
173
12.6
Cost of Accidents
174
12.7
Events to be Analyzed in Chernobyl Event
179
13.1
Functions of the Major Components of a Space Shuttle
182
13.2
Lower Level Crew Life Support Functions of Orbiter
183
13.3
Critical Functions of a Commercial Airplane
188
13.4
Flight Critical Systems for F-22 Raptor
191
13.5
Critical Functions for Continuity of Operations
198
13.6
Secondary Critical Continuity of Operations Functions
200
14.1
Common Fault Tree Symbols
206
14.2
Logic Gates
207
14.3
More Complicated Logic Gates
209
14.4
Rules for Constructing Fault Tree
210
14.5
Basic Events
213
14.6
Credible Failures
215
14.7
Credible Events
217
17.1
Partial Vulnerability Assessment of a Community Hospital
252
17.2
Building Hazards
267
17.3
Natural Hazards
268
17.4
Man-Made Hazards
269
17.5
Building Hazards
271
17.6
Natural Hazards
273
17.7
Man-Made Hazards
274
17.8
Sample Sources of Information for a Vulnerability Study
275
18.1
Example of FMEA Table
280
18.2
Process Steps for Checking a Chip Detector
281
18.3
Failures Associated with Each Step
281
18.4
Effect of Potential Failures
282
18.5
Complete FMEA for Chip Detector Task
283
18.6
Accident Sequence
286
18.7
Event Sequence with Probabilities
286
19.1
List of Chemicals
298
19.2
Preliminary Hazard Analysis for Site A
299
19.3
Preliminary Hazard Analysis for Site B
301
19.4
Preliminary Hazard Analysis for Site C
304
19.5
Probabilities for Basic Events
306
19.6
Chemical Release Spill Calculations
307
21.1
Key Issues in 1983 Phillips Explosion
321
21.2
Time line of Events Leading to the Texas City Explosion
325
21.3
Chemical Properties
328
21.4
Plant Symbols
330
21.5
Plant Component Reliability Data
331
21.6
Sample Preliminary Hazard Analysis for Process Plant
332
21.7
Sample Failure Mode and Effect Analysis for Process Plant
335
21.8
Fire Event Tree for Process Analysis
338
21.9
Event Tree Sequence for Chemical Fore and Subsequent Release of Chemical C
342
21.10
Failure Rate Data
343
21.11
Combined Failure Rates
343
22.1
Original Cut Sets
360
22.2
Modified Cut Sets
361
22.3
Four Parts of the Airport Security Screening Process and their Purpose
364
22.4
Revised Cut Set
367
22.5
Cut Sets
368
22.6
Food Safety Preliminary Hazards
372
23.1
Restaurant Risk Assessment
377
Acknowledgments
We wish to thank all the individuals who helped us bring this project together:
Chapter 1
Introduction to Risk Assessment
On any given day, in every corner of the world people are actively working, going to school, driving or taking mass transit to work, relaxing at home or on vacation, or even working at home. Some people are even finding the time to sleep. Those who are working perform jobs that range from cleaning animal kennels to being the head of state of a country and every type of job in between. Every job, in fact, every activity a human performs, has a hazard associated with it. The common hazards we all are exposed to include
slips, trips, and falls;
illness and disease;
food borne illness;
transportation: car accidents, pedestrian accidents, and bicycle accidents;
sports: organized sports (football, basketball, soccer) accidents, individual sports accidents (skiing, water sports, skate boarding);
electrical;
fires;
snow removal.
On top of these more common hazards, every job has specific hazards associated with it. The major hazards associated with cleaning animal cages, for example, include
being attacked by the animal;
the bacteria, viruses, and parasites that might be in the animal waste;
the design of the cage might pose problems: size, shape, material of construction, and sharp edges;
the maintenance of the cage might pose problems: cleanliness, jagged metal or wood, and faulty locks/latches/gates/door;
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