Stock Trader's Almanac 2026 E-Book

Jeffrey A. Hirsch

• Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
• Kategorie: Fachliteratur
• Serie: Almanac Investor Series
• Sprache: Englisch

Seitenzahl: 424

Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2025

Beschreibung

The 59th Annual Edition of the leading desk reference on US stock market trends, seasonal patterns, and cycles

In Stock Trader's Almanac 2026, veteran trader and market strategist Jeffrey Hirsch offers an up-to-date and effective guide through the complexities of the United States stock market. It catalogues the historical cycles, trends, and seasonal patterns that you need to understand to make sound investment decisions.

This is the 59th Annual Edition of the Almanac, thoroughly updated and revised to ensure it retains its place as the preeminent, hands-on guide for US stock traders. It's organized in an accessible calendar format, demonstrating the proven, proprietary strategies – based on decades of carefully collected data – like the “January Barometer,” the “Santa Claus Rally,” the “Best Six Months,” and the four-year “Presidential Election Cycle.”

Stock Trader's Almanac 2026 remains the most profitable and valuable trading reference on Wall Street. It includes:

• Explanations of how the four-year presidential election cycle affects the economy and the stock market
• How midterm election years are a bottom picker's paradise
• How to avoid the weak spot of the 4-year cycle Q2-Q3 midterm year and capitalize on the sweet spot that begins in Q4
• Why a 50% gain in the Dow is possible from its 2026 low to its 2027 high
• What the Twentieth Amendment to the Constitution of the United States has to do with the “January Barometer” and what it means for you
• How to take advantage of regular, significant market bias at certain times of the day, week, month, and year
• How holidays predictably impact market behavior
• Seasonal opportunities and risks
• Pertinent statistics on past market performance
• Useful resources for portfolio planning, record keeping, and tax preparation

A favorite resource for top money managers since 1968, Stock Trader's Almanac 2026 is perfect for retail and institutional investment professionals seeking to understand recurring patterns in the US stock market and maximize their profit potential.

Leseprobe

Table of Contents

COVER

TABLE OF CONTENTS

TITLE PAGE

COPYRIGHT

INTRODUCTION TO THE FIFTY-NINTH EDITION

2026 OUTLOOK

2026 STRATEGY CALENDAR

JANUARY ALMANAC

JANUARY’S FIRST FIVE DAYS: AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

THE INCREDIBLE JANUARY BAROMETER (DEVISED 1972): ONLY 12 SIGNIFICANT ERRORS IN 75 YEARS

BULLS WIN WHEN MARKET HITS THE JANUARY TRIFECTA

FEBRUARY ALMANAC

DOWN JANUARYS: A REMARKABLE RECORD

MARKET CHARTS OF MIDTERM ELECTION YEARS

MIDTERM ELECTION YEARS: WHERE BOTTOM PICKER’S FIND PARADISE

MARCH ALMANAC

PROSPERITY MORE THAN PEACE DETERMINES THE OUTCOME OF MIDTERM CONGRESSIONAL RACES

WHY A 50% GAIN IN THE DOW IS POSSIBLE FROM ITS 2026 LOW TO ITS 2027 HIGH

THE DECEMBER LOW INDICATOR: A USEFUL PROGNOSTICATING TOOL

HOW TO TRADE BEST MONTHS SWITCHING STRATEGIES

APRIL ALMANAC

DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS & S&P 500 ONE-YEAR SEASONAL PATTERN CHARTS SINCE 1901 & 1950

NASDAQ, RUSSELL 1000 & 2000 ONE-YEAR SEASONAL PATTERN CHARTS SINCE 1971 & 1979

WELCOME TO THE SWEET SPOT OF THE 4-YEAR CYCLE: Q4 MIDTERM YEAR TO Q2 PRE-ELECTION YEAR

MAY ALMANAC

SUMMER MARKET VOLUME DOLDRUMS DRIVE WORST SIX MONTHS

TOP-PERFORMING MONTHS: STANDARD & POOR’S 500 AND DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS

BEST SIX MONTHS: STILL AN EYE-POPPING STRATEGY

MACD-TIMING TRIPLES BEST-SIX-MONTHS RESULTS

JUNE ALMANAC

TOP-PERFORMING NASDAQ MONTHS

GET MORE OUT OF NASDAQ’S BEST EIGHT MONTHS WITH MACD TIMING

TRIPLE RETURNS, FEWER TRADES: BEST 6 + 4–YEAR CYCLE

JULY ALMANAC

FIRST MONTH OF QUARTERS IS THE MOST BULLISH

2024 DAILY DOW POINT CHANGES (DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE)

MARKET GAINS MORE ON SUPER-8 DAYS EACH MONTH THAN ON ALL 13 REMAINING DAYS COMBINED

AUGUST ALMANAC

A RALLY FOR ALL SEASONS

TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DOWN FRIDAY/ DOWN MONDAY WARNING

MARKET BEHAVIOR THREE DAYS BEFORE AND THREE DAYS AFTER HOLIDAYS

FOURTH-QUARTER MARKET MAGIC

SEPTEMBER ALMANAC

BEST INVESTMENT BOOKS OF THE YEAR

A CORRECTION FOR ALL SEASONS

FIRST-TRADING-DAY-OF-THE-MONTH PHENOMENON

OCTOBER ALMANAC

SECTOR SEASONALITY: SELECTED PERCENTAGE PLAYS

SECTOR INDEX SEASONALITY STRATEGY CALENDAR*

NOVEMBER ALMANAC

MIDTERM ELECTION TIME UNUSUALLY BULLISH

TRADERS FEAST ON SMALL STOCKS THANKSGIVING THROUGH SANTA CLAUS RALLY

TRADING THE THANKSGIVING MARKET

AURA OF THE TRIPLE WITCH—4TH QUARTER MOST BULLISH: DOWN WEEKS TRIGGER MORE WEAKNESS WEEK AFTER

DECEMBER ALMANAC

MOST OF THE SO-CALLED JANUARY EFFECT TAKES PLACE IN THE LAST HALF OF DECEMBER

JANUARY EFFECT NOW STARTS IN MID-DECEMBER

WALL STREET’S ONLY “FREE LUNCH” SERVED BEFORE CHRISTMAS

IF SANTA CLAUS SHOULD FAIL TO CALL, BEARS MAY COME TO BROAD AND WALL

2027 STRATEGY CALENDAR

DIRECTORY OF TRADING PATTERNS AND DATABANK

DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2026

RECENT

DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2026

S&P 500 MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2026

RECENT

S&P 500 MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2026

NASDAQ COMPOSITE MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2026

RECENT

NASDAQ COMPOSITE MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2026

RUSSELL 1000 INDEX MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2026

RUSSELL 2000 INDEX MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2026

DECENNIAL CYCLE: A MARKET PHENOMENON

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION/STOCK MARKET CYCLE: THE 192-YEAR SAGA CONTINUES

DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS BULL AND BEAR MARKETS SINCE 1900

STANDARD & POOR’s 500 BULL and BEAR MARKETS SINCE 1929 NASDAQ COMPOSITE SINCE 1971

DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS 10-YEAR DAILY POINT CHANGES: JANUARY AND FEBRUARY

DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS 10-YEAR DAILY POINT CHANGES: MARCH AND APRIL

DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS 10-YEAR DAILY POINT CHANGES: MAY AND JUNE

DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS 10-YEAR DAILY POINT CHANGES: JULY AND AUGUST

DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS 10-YEAR DAILY POINT CHANGES: SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER

DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS 10-YEAR DAILY POINT CHANGES: NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER

A TYPICAL DAY IN THE MARKET

THROUGH THE WEEK ON A HALF-HOURLY BASIS

TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY, BEST DAYS OF WEEK

NASDAQ STRONGEST LAST 3 DAYS OF WEEK

S&P Daily performance each year since 1952

NASDAQ DAILY PERFORMANCE EACH YEAR SINCE 1971

MONTHLY CASH INFLOWS INTO S&P STOCKS

MONTHLY CASH INFLOWS INTO NASDAQ STOCKS

NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, AND JANUARY: YEAR’s BEST THREE-MONTH SPAN

NOVEMBER THROUGH JUNE: NASDAQ’S EIGHT-MONTH RUN

DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, & CLOSES SINCE 1901

S&P 500 ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, & CLOSES SINCE 1930

NASDAQ ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, & CLOSES SINCE 1971

RUSSELL 1000 ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, & CLOSES SINCE 1979

RUSSELL 2000 ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, & CLOSES SINCE 1979

DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES SINCE 1950

DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MONTHLY POINT CHANGES SINCE 1950

DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES SINCE 1950

STANDARD & POOR’S 500 MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES SINCE 1950

STANDARD & POOR’S 500 MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES SINCE 1950

NASDAQ COMPOSITE MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES SINCE 1971

NASDAQ COMPOSITE MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES SINCE 1971

RUSSELL 1000 INDEX MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES SINCE 1979

RUSSELL 1000 INDEX MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES SINCE 1979

RUSSELL 2000 INDEX MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES SINCE 1979

RUSSELL 2000 INDEX MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES SINCE 1979

10

BEST

DAYS BY PERCENT AND POINT

10

WORST

DAYS BY PERCENT AND POINT

10

BEST

WEEKS BY PERCENT AND POINT

10

WORST

WEEKS BY PERCENT AND POINT

10

BEST

MONTHS BY PERCENT AND POINT

10

WORST

MONTHS BY PERCENT AND POINT

10

BEST

QUARTERS BY PERCENT AND POINT

10

WORST

QUARTERS BY PERCENT AND POINT

10

BEST

YEARS BY PERCENT AND POINT

10

WORST

YEARS BY PERCENT AND POINT

STRATEGY PLANNING AND RECORD SECTION

PORTFOLIO AT START OF 2026

ADDITIONAL PURCHASES

SHORT‐TERM TRANSACTIONS

LONG‐TERM TRANSACTIONS

INTEREST/DIVIDENDS RECEIVED DURING 2026

BROKERAGE ACCOUNT DATA 2026

WEEKLY PORTFOLIO PRICE RECORD 2026 (FIRST HALF)

WEEKLY PORTFOLIO PRICE RECORD 2026 (SECOND HALF)

WEEKLY INDICATOR DATA 2026 (FIRST HALF)

WEEKLY INDICATOR DATA 2026 (SECOND HALF)

MONTHLY INDICATOR DATA 2026

PORTFOLIO AT END OF 2026

IF YOU DON’T PROFIT FROM YOUR INVESTMENT MISTAKES, SOMEONE ELSE WILL

PERFORMANCE RECORD OF RECOMMENDATIONS

INDIVIDUAL RETIREMENT ACCOUNTS: MOST AWESOME INVESTMENT INCENTIVE EVER DEVISED

G. M. LOEB’S “BATTLE PLAN” FOR INVESTMENT SURVIVAL

G. M. LOEB’s INVESTMENT SURVIVAL CHECKLIST

NOTES

END USER LICENSE AGREEMENT

Guide

Cover

Table of Contents

Title Page

Copyright

Introduction to the Fifty-Ninth Edition

2026 Strategy Calendar

Begin Reading

End User License Agreement

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STOCK TRADER’S ALMANAC 2026

Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Christopher Mistal

www.stocktradersalmanac.com

Copyright © 2026 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved, including rights for text and data mining and training of artificial intelligence technologies or similar technologies.

Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey.

Published simultaneously in Canada.

Editor-in-Chief

Jeffrey A. Hirsch

Director of Research

Christopher Mistal

Graphic Design

Darlene Dion Design

Publisher 1966–2000 & Editor 1966–2003

Yale Hirsch (1923–2021)

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, [phone], fax [phone], or on the web at www.copyright.com. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, [phone], fax [phone], or online at http://www.wiley.com/go/permission.

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Trademarks: Wiley and the Wiley logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of John Wiley & Sons, Inc. and/or its affiliates in the United States and other countries and may not be used without written permission. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. is not associated with any product or vendor mentioned in this book.

Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a professional where appropriate. Further, readers should be aware that websites listed in this work may have changed or disappeared between when this work was written and when it is read. Neither the publisher nor authors shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages.

For general information on our other products and services or for technical support, please contact our Customer Care Department within the United States at [phone], outside the United States at [phone] or fax [phone].

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ISBN: 9781394362684 (paper)

ISBN: 9781394362714 (ePDF)

ISBN: 9781394362707 (ePub)

INTRODUCTION TO THE FIFTY-NINTH EDITION

We are honored to present the 59th annual edition of the Stock Trader’s Almanac. The Almanac provides you with the necessary tools and data to invest and trade successfully in the twenty-first century.

J.P. Morgan’s classic retort “Stocks will fluctuate” is often quoted with a wink-of-the-eye implication that the only prediction one can make about the stock market is that it will go up, down, or sideways. Many investors and traders agree that no one ever really knows which way the market will move. Nothing could be further from the truth.

We discovered many years ago that while stocks do indeed fluctuate, they do so in well-defined, often predictable patterns. These patterns recur too frequently to be the result of chance or coincidence. How else do we explain that since 1950 the Dow has gained 29918.50 points during November through April compared to 10536.53 May through October? (See page 54.)

The Almanac is a practical investment tool. It alerts you to those little-known market patterns and tendencies on which shrewd professionals enhance profit potential. You will be able to forecast market trends with accuracy and confidence when you use the Almanac to help you understand:

How our presidential elections affect the economy and the stock market—just as the moon affects the tides. Many investors have made fortunes following the political-cycle. You can be sure that money managers who control billions of dollars are also political-cycle watchers. Astute people do not ignore a pattern that has been working effectively throughout most of our economic history.

How the passage of the Twentieth Amendment to the Constitution fathered the January Barometer. This barometer has an outstanding record for predicting the general course of the stock market each year with only 12 major errors since 1950 for an 84.0% accuracy ratio. (See

page 18

.)

Why there is a significant market bias at certain times of the day, week, month and year.

Even if you are an investor who pays scant attention to cycles, indicators, and patterns, your investment survival could hinge on your interpretation of one of the recurring patterns found within these pages. One of the most intriguing and important patterns is the symbiotic relationship between Washington and Wall Street. Aside from the potential profitability in seasonal patterns, there’s the pure joy of seeing the market very often do just what you expected.

The Stock Trader’s Almanac is also an organizer. Its wealth of information is presented on a calendar basis. The Almanac puts investing in a business framework and makes it easier because it:

Updates investment knowledge and informs you of new techniques and tools.

Is a monthly reminder and refresher course.

Alerts you to both seasonal opportunities and dangers.

Furnishes a historical viewpoint by providing pertinent statistics on past market performance.

Supplies forms necessary for portfolio planning, record keeping, and tax preparation.

The WITCH icon signifies THIRD FRIDAY OF THE MONTH on calendar pages and alerts you to extraordinary volatility due to expiration of monthly equity options, index options, and index futures contracts. “Triple-Witching” days appear during March, June, September, and December (see

page 108

).

The BULL icon on calendar pages signifies favorable trading days based on the S&P 500 rising 60% or more of the time on a particular trading day during the 21-year period January 2004 to December 2024.

A BEAR icon on calendar pages signifies unfavorable trading days based on the S&P falling 60% or more of the time for the same 21-year period.

Clusters of two or more BULLs or BEARs can be especially helpful in identifying periods of strength or weakness throughout the year. Clusters can also be three out of four days or three out of five days. An example of four BEARs in five days can be observed on page 91 during the last full week of September. One of the most bullish weeks of the year is illustrated by a streak of five BULLs in a row during the first week of November on page 103.

On pages 123–130 you will find complete Market Probability Calendars both long term and the recent 21-year period for the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ, as well as for the Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 indices. To give you even greater perspective we have listed on the weekly planner pages next to the date every day that the market is open the market probability numbers for the same 21-year period for the Dow (D), S&P 500 (S) and NASDAQ (N). You will see a “D,” “S” and “N” followed by a number signifying the actual market probability number for that trading day based on the recent 21-year period.

Other seasonalities near the ends, beginnings, and middles of months; options expirations, around holidays and other times are noted for Almanac investors’ convenience on the weekly planner pages. All other important economic releases are provided in the Strategy Calendar every month in our digital newsletter, Almanac Investor, available at our website www.stocktradersalmanac.com. Please see the insert for a special offer for new subscribers.

One-year seasonal pattern charts for Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000, and Russell 2000 appear on pages 42 and 44. There is one chart of the Dow that spans our entire database starting in 1901, one each for the Dow and S&P 500 back to 1950 and one each for the younger indices. As 2026 is a midterm election year, each chart contains typical midterm election year performance compared to all years.

The Russell 2000 is an excellent proxy for small- and mid-caps and the Russell 1000 provides a broader view of large caps. Annual highs and lows for all five indices covered in the Almanac appear on pages 151–155. Top “10 Best & Worst” days, weeks, months, quarters and years for all five indices are listed on pages 174–183.

We have converted many of the paper forms in our Record Keeping section into spreadsheets for our own internal use. As a service to our faithful readers, we are making these forms available at our website www.stocktradersalmanac.com. Look for a link titled “Forms” at the bottom of the home page.

You can find all the market charts of midterm election years from 1942 to 2022 on page 26. “Midterm Election Years: Where Bottom Picker’s Find Paradise” on page 28 highlights the uncanny record of major market bottoms occurring in the midterm election year particularly in October. “Prosperity More Than Peace Determines the Outcome of Midterm Congressional Races” on page 32 shows how market performance and inflation impact the notorious loss of House seats by the president’s party in the midterms. “Why A 50% Move in the Dow Is Possible From Its 2026 Low to Its 2027 High” is detailed on page 34. Bullish market behavior around the midterm elections in November appears on page 102, “Midterm Election Time Unusually Bullish.”

“Welcome to the Sweet Spot of the 4-Year Cycle” on page 46 explains the usual weakness that occurs during Q2 and Q3 of the midterm setting up the “Sweet Spot” of the 4-Year Cycle from Q4 in the midterm year through Q2 pre-election year and beyond. On page 86, by popular demand, we have brought back the “Best Investment Books of the Year” with half a dozen hand-picked recently published investment and trading books from the brightest minds on Wall Street that run the gamut from technical analysis to quantitative research to dividend investing to the dos and don’ts of wealth management to Bitcoin.

“Bulls Win When Market Hits the January Trifecta” on page 20 shows a new indicator we built in 2013 that combines our Santa Claus Rally (page 118) and January Barometer (page 18) with the First Five Days (page 16), creating a more powerful indicator. On page 104 is a new trading strategy, “Traders Feast on Small Stocks Thanksgiving through Santa Claus Rally.”

“How to Trade Best Months Switching Strategies” appears on page 38. How “Summer Market Volume Doldrums Drives Worst Six Months” is updated on page 50. Revised sector seasonalities including several consistent shorting opportunities, appear on pages 94–98.

Our 2026 Outlook on pages 10–11 calls for tougher trading through the first three quarters of 2026 in line with the historic performance of midterm years. After modest gains during the first quarter look for the market to consolidate gains and retreat through Q2 and Q3, the 4-Year Cycle “Weak Spot,” with increased risk of recession and a bear market, before the bull returns and the market rallies in Q4 of 2026 at the outset of the “Sweet Spot” of the 4-Year Cycle.

We are constantly searching for new insights and nuances about the stock market and welcome any suggestions from our readers.

May 2026 bring you health, happiness, and success!

2026 OUTLOOK

Welcome to the “Sweet Spot” of the 4-Year Cycle. This uncanny market cycle revolves around the forces generated by the regular election of the President of the United States of America every four years. It has provided us with a reliable framework and guided our analysis and market forecasting from our beginnings in the 1960s to the present day. Presidents and their parties engage in a quadrennial dance to hold power that impacts geopolitics, economics, and the stock market profoundly.

During the first two years of their term their efforts are focused on implementing the agendas they campaigned on. They attempt to push through their most sweeping changes and least savory policy initiatives early on, fueling uncertainty and market volatility. Then they prime the pump in the third and fourth year with rhetoric and policy that is intended to juice the economy and buoy the stock market so the country is rich and happy when they go to the polls four years later. This political rhythm is what drives the 4-Year Presidential Stock Market Cycle.

The first two years have been more prone to wars, recessions, and bear markets whereas the latter two years have experienced greater peace, prosperity, and bull markets. The cycle has evolved slightly over the years with the most significant change being the improvement in the market performance in the first year of the president’s term, the post-election year. What remains the same is clear weakness in the second year, the midterm election year and the outperformance of the third year, the pre-election year. And this creates the “Sweet Spot” of the 4-Year Cycle.

Midterm election year 2026 promises to be fraught with crisis, bear market action and economic weakness. Ten of the last 16 bear markets bottomed in the midterm year – 2022 case in point. Effects of the current administration’s fiscal, trade, tax, and immigration policies will likely cause inflation to tick up next year threatening to slow economic activity and impact the market most dramatically in Q2 and Q3 of 2026. During this “Weak Spot” of the 4-year Cycle the market averages losses of -2.0% for the Dow, -2.5% for S&P 500 and -6.6% for NASDAQ over the two-quarter span.

As the congressional midterm election battles take centerstage the president and congress will be focused on retaining power and less on their agenda, increasing the potential for a decline that could culminate in bear market. But where there is great danger, there is also great opportunity. This sets up the “Sweet Spot” and the next great buying opportunity. After the invariable loss of seats by the president’s party and potentially control of congress, the president will likely tack to the center and adjust fiscal policy to get spending and income up and interest rates and inflation down over the next two years to keep his party in the White House.

The “S&P 500 Midterm Election Seasonal Pattern” chart on page 10 illustrates a rather bleak outlook for the first three quarters of 2026. After reaching negative territory in Q2 and Q3 stocks should rally in Q4 at the outset of the “Sweet Spot” pushing the market into the black with a net gain for the year of 4-8%.

The Super Boom we forecasted in May 2010 for Dow 38820 by 2025 is still in play and has room to run. We hit Dow 38820 in early 2024 a year ahead of schedule but the current tech boom continues to gather momentum that will likely push this secular bull to new heights. Based on the Super Boom pattern depicted in the chart below and with the benefit of hindsight, the secular bear and launching pad for the current Super Boom was not completed until 2013 when Dow broke out to new alltime highs and never looked back. The final mini bear bottomed on October 3, 2011, at Dow 10655.30. A 500% move from the intraday low on October 4, 2011, of 10405 takes Dow to our new target of 62430. Based upon the Dow’s average 8.5% annual return since 1949 we could hit that level within 5 years.

The tech stack that drives these booms is always evolving. We refer to these innovative and disruptive technologies that change the world as “culturally-enablingparadigm-shifting technologies.” AI clearly fits the bill, and its moat is constantly expanding to new industries and uses. Quantum computing is another promising technology that could change the world and has been gaining traction lately.

Bitcoin may also play a role in this boom. In his new Little Book of Bitcoin (one of our Best Investment Books of the Year, page 86) Anthony Scaramucci compares BTC to Apple or Amazon circa 2000: “The investment equivalent of the fire or the wheel.” “Bitcoin is the Internet of money.” He relates how Bitcoin fulfills Peter Diamandis’ Six Ds of exponential technology that changes every industry it touches: Digitize, Dematerialize, Demonetize, Democratize, Deception, and Disruption. Everything is now just data, and Bitcoin is money data.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch, May 30, 2025

Market closed on shaded weekdays; closes early when half-shaded.