The Last Drop E-Book

Issam, Dr. Wadi

• Herausgeber: novum pro Verlag
• Kategorie: Gesellschafts- und Liebesromane
• Sprache: Englisch

Seitenzahl: 155

Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2018

Beschreibung

Do you find yourself wondering what would happen if the world ran out of oil and gas? Or is it something so incomprehensible that you could never imagine it happening? According to Oil and Gas expert Dr Issam Wadi, it is not only a possibility; it is a catastrophic probability that seems to happen during our children's or grandchildren's lifetime. This insight into the world's reliance on oil and gas and the lack of preparation for when fuel runs out is gravely worrying. He looks in depth at the problems the world will face and after studying the issues, offers solutions and steps that need to be taken in order to significantly reduce catastrophic results. It is a must read for everyone who wants to give future generations a fighting chance at surviving a future without oil and gas.

Leseprobe

Contents

Imprint

Introduction

Preface

Acknowledgments

1.0 Introduction

2.0 Oil & Gas Today

3.0 The Illusive Golden Century

4.0 Future of Oil & Gas

5.0 Post Oil & Gas

5.1 Exploration and Production (E&P) Industries

5.2 Refining and Gas Processing

5.3 Petrochemical and Fertilizer Industries

5.4 Power Industry and Power Plants

5.5 Ground Transportation

5.6 Aviation

5.7 Shipping

5.8 Domestic and Home Fuels

5.9 Plastics

5.10 Electronics and Computer Systems

5.11 Home and Appliances 

5.12 Textiles and Clothing

5.13 The Medical Sector 

5.14 Steel and Aluminum 

5.15 Wood and Logging

5.16 EPC and Mega Projects

5.17 Design and Engineering Services

5.18 Heavy Industry and Equipment

5.19 Coal as a Source of Energy

5.20 Renewable Energy 

5.21 Nuclear Energy

5.22 Environmental Issues

5.23 Biofuels and Biopolymers

5.24 Urban Planning

5.25 Education and Research

5.26 Petroleum Engineering

5.27 The Food Industry 

5.28 Farming and Agriculture 

5.29 Sports

5.30 The Space Industry

5.31 Toys and Entertainment

5.32 Tourism and Hospitality Industries

6.0 Global Impacts

6.1 Impact on World Economies

6.2 Impact on World Trade and the Financial Sectors

6.3 Geopolitics 

6.4 Military and Arms

6.5 Governments and Regulations 

6.6 Impact on Selected Business Sectors

6.7 Social Impacts

7.0 Post Oil & Gas: Phases and Mitigation Planning

8.0 Let’s Get Ready: The Way Forward

8.1 High-Speed and Long-Haul Transportation

8.2 Jet-Propulsion

8.3 Electric Planes

8.4 Miniature Nuclear Reactors

8.5 Biopolymers

8.6 Alternative Fuels

8.7 Electronics and Computers

8.8 Electrical Equipment, Cables, and Wires

8.9 Battery Technology

8.10 Farming and Agriculture Research

8.11 Recycling

9.0 Summary and Conclusion

References

Index

Imprint

All rights of distribution, also through movies, radio and television, photomechanical reproduction, sound carrier, electronic medium and reprinting in excerpts are reserved.

© 2018 novum publishing

ISBN print edition: 978-3-99064-115-6

ISBN e-book: 978-3-99064-116-3

Editor: BA (Hons) Rachel Jones

Cover images: Dr. Issam Wadi

Coverdesign, Layout & Type: novum publishing

Images:see Index

www.novum-publishing.co.uk

Introduction

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Sections 107 and 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act.

This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in regard to the subject matter covered. It is sold with the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting, or other professional services. If legal advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional person should be sought.

All references used, where taken from the source, are to be used only in this book. If need be, please contact the reference and content owners directly for permission to use their content.

To my lovely granddaughter, Dana,

to my other grandchildren and to the children of the world, wishing them a safe and livable world when they grow up.

Preface

It has been over a year since I started writing this book. It started in response to a question by my elder son, Walid, who asked me (when we were enjoying a sunny weekend at a nice resort at the Jumeriah Palm in Dubai),had I ever tried to study and analyze what is going to happen to the world when there is no more oil and gas? My answer was “No, never; at least not in a scientific and comprehensive way”. The following week, after some initial research and analysis, I became attached to the topic, because I found out, for the first time in my life and after more than forty years in the oil and gas industry, that this question is more important and critical than I initially thought, and hence needed to be addressed properly. The more I researched the topic, the more involved I became in trying to find answers.

My work started by referring (at the time and until I sent the book for publishing) to the most recent and relevant research on the topic, whether by academia or by the energy sector, including the oil and gas industry. Although the consequences of oil and gas depletion were referred to in many relevant articles, research reports, and books, I realized that, apart from a few documentary films, general articles, etc., which were of a broad nature, there had not been a comprehensive, serious, nor in-depth study of the subject that addressed the impact or important aspects on our lives, nor discussed solutions and actions (i.e., mitigation plans) needed in a comprehensive way. Halfway through, I decided to convert this work into a book, finding myself obliged to tell the world what I found and what I thought. To be honest, the more analysis and research I did, the more worried I became.

My research revealed one and only one thing: “WE ARE NOT READY,” and there are serious consequences waiting for us (not I or those of my age group, but waiting for our children and grandchildren). My worry level increased when I sent the first draft of the manuscript for proofreading by professionals and academicians, highly respected professionals, from different backgrounds and industries, such as those in in oil and gas, energy, technology, medical science, financial markets, and manufacturing. Furthermore, I was invited to speak about the topic at highly respected organizations and universities, such as the renowned Imperial College-London in UK and the University of Bradford in UK. In all these of interactions, my concerns were confirmed, since nobody could relieve my worries, nor could they challenge my pessimistic conclusions. Publishing this work is like sending an alert to the world, to wake-up, hoping it will trigger the right actions, based on global collaboration, looking for suitable solutions, so that the world can mitigate, if not all, at least some of the serious consequences that are going to face the world in a few decades.

One question I had to ask before I started writing this book was, “Who is my audience? Ordinary people? Specialized people? Academics? Business people? Who?” Due to the nature of the work, and given that this topic is of concern to every human and touches on most aspects of our lives, from simple things like toys, to complex entities such as the military, industries, politics, economies, technology, and so on, I decided to strike a balance and make it useful and readable by all. Having said that, there may be some acronyms and technical terms (I tried to minimize these as much as I could) that may be understood only by technical experts and specialists; however, you will still find that a vast percentage of the material is easily understood by the average person, and that everyone in his or her role in this world, field of work or specialty, will find most of the sections and material useful and relevant to him or her.

To make it easy to read, I have divided the book into 9 chapters (I refer to these as sections sometimes, they mean the same), that can be classified into three main parts: Part I, extending from Chapters 1.0 through Chapter 3.0, provide background, introductory information, and analysis that are related to the history of oil and gas development, the evolution and main characteristics of this industry. It also addresses the Peak Oil theory, including the work of M. K. Hubbert, the future of oil and gas, and the illusions faced by many nations caused by a flood of easy wealth in a short time, which many have assumed will never diminish and hence have used abusively.

The second part, starting from Chapter 4.0 and continuing through Chapters 5.0 and 6.0, represents the main material, all related to discussing the post oil and gas impacts on the world. Chapter 5.0 is the largest chapter in the book and address 32 areas and aspects of human life, from simple things like toys and furniture to major subjects like transportation, aviation, shipping, medical technology, and electronics. It analyses each one of these aspects and tries to explain, in simple terms, what is going to happen to these after oil and gas are gone. Chapter 6.0 addresses the post oil and gas impact, but on major professional areas, such as the economic, social, and geopolitical sectors.

The third part of the book, starting from Chapter 7.0 and continuing to Chapter 8.0, address areas related to the actions needed, alternatives foreseen, new technologies, and solutions that are promising as alternatives for some of the oil-based technologies, equipment, and commodities, such as the biopolymers, miniature atomic reactors, solar cars, etc. They also establish a high-level plan of action drafted to coincide with the oil-depletion curve, and the phases (as foreseen) that I propose. These are used as a basis to be followed by a more refined and detailed plan.

Chapter 9.0 addresses the effect on different businesses, presented in a tabular form, and explaining the respective impacts and severity levels for each. This chapter is a good reference for companies, governments, and investors, who need to know and foresee the predicted impacts, so that they can make the right decisions as early as possible and prepare for effects that transform businesses, replace products, and alter consumer practices. The section also shows if the solutions have concerns related to safety, security, or other possible consequences.

Whether you are a government official, businessperson, academic, industrialist, oil and gas professional, energy professional, investor, researcher, homemaker, student, soldier, medical doctor, contractor, manufacturer, military officer, or banker, I hope that you will find the book easily readable and useful, and that it will help you to prepare and contribute to your necessary plans and actions.

My last words: Let’s save our children and grandchildren by ACTING NOW.

Acknowledgments

It has been a year since I started researching and writing on this subject. The journey was not easy; bearing in mind my busy schedule, frequent travel, and family and social commitments. Eventually, the work was completed and ready to go. Without the help and support of many people, including family, friends, professional associates and academicians, this work could have not been done nor seen the light. Therefore, I want to thank all those who supported me while researching, writing, and completing it.

First of all, I would like to thank my son, Ghazi, for his great support. With all his busy schedule and job demands, he was instrumental in helping me, throughout, by reviewing the book material; helping with the diagrams, pictures, and graphs; and assisting in completing the references list. His support played major role in making this book happen. Also, thanks to my son, Walid, who motivated me to start this work when he asked me last year if I had ever thought about, or analyzed, what is going to happen to the world when there will be no more oil and gas. That was the starting point. Also, and as usual, with every journey or challenge I have been through in my life, thanks always to my beloved wife, Shahnaz, for her continuous support and encouragement. Similarly, thanks to my elder brother, Ghazi, who has been always a big motivator for me.

Many colleagues, friends, and professionals helped with the review and proofreading of the draft version; their comments were very useful, and both enriched and refined my work. I would like, in particular, to thank Mr. Marc Valleur, for his comprehensive review, discussions, and comments. Also thanks to Mr. Khaled Zayadin, Mr. Alan Stubbs, CEO, of Servelec Group-UK; and to Dr. Bernard Conseill, and Mr. Michel Buffenoir. Thanks also to Anita Balaji in NY, USA, for reviewing the parts related to financial markets and economies, and to Dr. Ghassan Hannoun for reviewing the parts related to the medical sector. Also, special thanks to Prof. Iqbal Mujtaba, Head of the Chemical Engineering Department at the University of Bradford University, for inviting me to talk about this book at the University, and to Mr. Neasan O’Neill, for inviting me to talk about this book at the Future Energy Centre of the Imperial College, London, UK. In addition, I would also like to thank Tony N. Al Saiegh for helping with the book cover design, Nabil Ayoubi for proposing the title, and Venita D’mello and Ron Bedua for extending necessary administrative and clerical support.

I cannot leave this page without thanking all those organizations and individuals who permitted the use of their important data, reports, material, graphs and charts; in particular I would like to thank Gail Tyerberg, Michael McDonald, and Paul Chefurka.

Thank you very much, everyone!

Issam Wadi

United Arab Emirates

January 2017

1.0 Introduction

Since its first commercial discovery in the 19th century, oil has been used as the main source of energy, and its production and consumption have increased exponentially, hence, it has become a dominant player in human development and growth. Today, it is used almost in every aspect of our lives, such as producing power, running machinery and factories, powering cars and other means of transportation, besides producing many different commodities that have become integral parts of our lives, such as plastics, clothing, and electronics. Without oil, our lives would stall.

Though many initiatives have been started in looking for alternative energy sources, in parallel with trying to find more sources of oil and gas, such as deep water and Arctic explorations, shale gas, shale oil, tar sand, etc. Many recent studies show that even if we are successful in producing more from these new and challenging sources, it is not foreseen that recoverable and commercially feasible oil and gas fuels will be affordable for more than a few more decades. As explained later in this book, it is obvious that the decline in the oil and gas production and reserve curves, has started, and are expected to commence in a steep downturn soon. In the past decade or so, many countries have started considering new sources of energy, such as renewable energy, as well as increasing their dependence on nuclear energy and using the remaining coal. Adding to this, the continuous growth in the world populations and the unprecedented economic growth in some countries (such as China and India), will accelerate the depletion rate of the world’s remaining oil and gas reserves. It is foreseeable that some of the post-oil and gas challenges, can be handled adequately and smoothly by using new sources of energy, such as replacing gasoline- and diesel-driven cars by electric cars and replacing fossil-fuel power stations1by nuclear or renewable energy power stations. In the cases of aviation and shipping, the challenges are going to be harder and not easily resolved, due to the nature of the problem, especially for long-haul and heavy travel. Some of these applications will need decades of extensive research, supported by huge investments, to find suitable and viable alternatives. As discussed later in Chapter 5.0, there are many other post-oil and gas challenges that we are going to face, such as finding suitable replacements for plastics. Therefore, we urgently need to start looking for alternative commodities as considerable lead time will be needed to find and develop these to meet the huge volume involved. Some of these services and commodities are critical to the health, comfort, and safety of humanity. Without them, people are going to suffer, businesses will be affected adversely, factories will shut down, and our daily lives will slow down or stop. Examples of some of these commodities are plastics-based medical items and tools, computers, clothes, and mobile electronic devices, to mention but a few.

1 Fossil fuel power station: is a power station which burns fossil fuel such as coal, natural gas, or petroleum to produce electricity

To add to the challenge, we should not ignore situations where oil and gas supplies are not enough or not feasibly available, which could lead to instability, eruptions of major wars, and political conflicts.. This book discusses, in its first few sections, the history and trends of the oil and gas industry since its early days, production and consumption patterns, and future trends. It then addresses the foreseen impact, caused by the absence of oil and gas, on almost every aspect of our lives, followed by a discussion of possible mitigation, plans, and solutions that need to be pursued to handle such impacts, in a humble attempt to avoid or reduce the foreseeable serious consequences. It also discusses alternative energy sources such as, biofuels (fuels produced from living matters), new transportation means and technology (the Hyperloop, rocket-like planes, electric vehicles), biopolymers; besides maximizing renewable energy production and usage. A large part of this book deals with the effect of oil and gas on the main aspects and needs of the world, such as social life, urban planning, world economies, education systems, technology development, medical systems, clothing and textile industries, military systems, and arms design, among others. The book also includes sections on the agriculture and food industries, and how these are affected by the absence of oil and gas, besides the impact of alternative energy sources, such as biofuel, on the availability of food, water, and the agricultural sector in general.