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- Herausgeber: Goeran B Johansson
- Kategorie: Geisteswissenschaft
- Sprache: Englisch
The book describes the continuation of Russia's path towards global recovery. It describes developments globally and mainly in Eurasia around the events in Ukraine. We also get an insight into Sweden's history in its relationship with Russia / Soviet Union through the centuries in a reasonably extensive dialogue with a Swedish retired air force officer and his son in the interior of Haelsingland. A comprehensive description and analysis of the United States' hundred-year strategy in Eurasia connected with the two world wars. Russia's military rearmament and several visits by the author to Santa Fe, Philippines, and Vietnam followed by an interview and dialogue with a Swedish retired officer from the Swedish military intelligence service as well as a Russian researcher and geopolitical expert in Ho Chi Minh Town in Vietnam. It has a detailed source list.
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Seitenzahl: 235
Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2022
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Vladimir Putin
A Geostrategic Russian Icon
In the Shadow of Ukraine
Goeran B Johansson.
Copyright ©2022 Goeran B Johansson
All rights reserved
Author Goeran B Johansson
Contact :[email protected]
ISBN 9789198375923
Cover The Author
39354600 Fighting
Rangizzz
Dreamstime.com
No changes were made except for image replacement on Sukhoi T50 in chapterRussias Military Strategy and Rearmament
The First Edition Published 2016
ISBN 9781365130748
Cover Author
The picture on the Cover
39354600 Fighting
Rangizzz
Dreamstime.com
Vladimir Putin
A Geostrategic Russian Icon
In the Shadow of Ukraine
Instead of an Introduction. Ukraine in the Borderland East-West
Vladimir Putin and His Vision of a Eurasian Union
Sweden and the Obsession of Russia
Period 1914-2014. One Hundred Years of America's Strategy in Eurasia
Sweden's Balancing Act during the War
United States Strategy in Europe during the Cold War and at this Stage.
From Kosovo to Libya
The Unipolar World Order is Broken
Russia's Military Strategy and Rearmament
The Russian Arctic and the Northern Sea Route
The Railroad to North Korea
In Vietnam
Ukraine in a Wider Perspective
Talk with ex Swedish Intelligence Officer in Palo Beach, Leyte, Philippines
Ad Extremum
About Author
Index
Instead of an Introduction. Ukraine in the Borderland East-West
Ukraine's territorial unit was created within the borders of the USSR. Furthermore, the then Communist Party leader, Nikita Khrushchev, gave the Crimean Peninsula to the Ukrainian Union Republic in 1954 as a gift. Subsequently, it was questioned whether it was a proper procedure purely legal under the Soviet Union's Constitution and statutes.
Ukraine became an independent country after the dissolution of the USSR in 1991. Crimea's population wanted to reunite with Russia at that time, which then-President Boris Yeltsin ignored. Crimea returned, however, to Russia in 2014 without significant drama as the majority of the population there voted for this reunion.
In November 2013, Ukraine was in a situation where it hung in the balance between the European Union and the Customs Union with Russia within the SCO1 and BRICS2, which may be added. Many Ukrainians, primarily in the western part, or Galicia, want to belong to the EU. At the same time, the East and Southeast, New Russia, and Ruthenia 3in the Carpathians would turn to Russia. Russia wants to influence Ukraine, which is vital to Russia as Scotland for the UK or Texas for the United States. Strategically, it is so that if Russia has control over Ukraine, it is consolidating Russian power in the Carpathians. The mountain range is not impossible to get through, but it is not an easy task. But if Ukraine in the West's control Russia´s and Belarus southern flank lies wide open along an arc running from the Polish border almost to Volgograd then south to the Sea of Azov. There are few natural barriers, if any, to speak of. For Russia, Ukraine thus is of fundamental security interests. Simultaneously, it is only essential for the West if the West intends to engage Russia in the military sense or, under Nazi Germany, to destroy the Soviet Union or existing Russia. Or hinder Ukraine from connecting with Russia and SCO / BRICS.
Russia welcomes an independent Ukraine but under the condition that it does not become a habitual residence in any country or alliance hostile to Russia. All this is because Ukraine, via Odesa and Sevastopol, 4controls Russia's access to the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. Moreover, Ukraine is holding gas and oil pipelines to Europe, which is commercially and strategically vital for Russia. After the Georgian-Russian war in 2008, Germany said no to NATO enlargement for Georgia and Ukraine. It might, therefore, seem that Russia should not have to worry that NATO would gain influence there.
But according to an article at the New Europe 9.21 2013, NATO Deputy Secretary-General Alexander Vershbow says that the alliance supports Ukraine's EU collaborative application. So, the danger for Russia is indeed not over. Therefore, Russia must lure Ukraine into the Russian sphere at all costs.
It was done by lowering energy prices and offering concessional terms. But, unfortunately, the EU was unwilling to or even not to do since they were busy with their problems in the divided Union.
President Vladimir Putin. Presidential Press and Information Office.
European Union signed a cooperation agreement with Ukraine, but it was not a question of lending money to the country. In contrast, Russia gave a loan of $ 15 billion, which Anders Åslund5, in an article in SvD 21/12 2013, writes that the IMF 6also offered. However, Russia gave loans without conditions with the vital difference, while the IMF imposed stringent requirements. By the way, Anders Åslund was a foreign advisor in Russia after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and took part in a failed attempt to "let go" liberalize Russia in the 1990s. Putin came to be an insurmountable obstacle to liberalization playhouse with Åslund as one of the players and where the IMF certainly did nothing to help. In contrast, the IMF provided loans to Poland and other Central European countries.
Russia did not set any requirement that Ukraine would join the Customs Union. 7This Putin said in an interview in Moscow in December 2013. Instead, Ukraine would consider a tripartite agreement with the EU and Russia, which both Sweden and Lithuania, and Poland renounced. Germany, however, believed that Russia must be part of a deal with the EU and Ukraine.
Ukraine also had an interest in obtaining an observation point in the SCO. From an article on SCO's website 28/10 2012 about a meeting between Yanukovych and Putin in Sochi, it is clear that Ukraine wanted to find a market for high-tech products with Russia to be able to function well in the Asian market. Putin pointed out that the search for markets in Asia was significant for Ukraine at the moment. SCO is not a military alliance, although its primary objective is to strengthen the stability and safety of the members of the vast territory fighting terrorism, separatism, extremism, and drug trafficking, and develop economic, energy cooperation, science, and culture. SCO is primarily a political, not a military organization. SCO - members have agreed not to enter into a partnership whose goal is contrary to their common interests. In practice, this means that the SCO will counter NATO and the United States' intentions to increase the influence in regions under the SCO control. The following example may demonstrate this: The United States and Japan have repeatedly asked if they can get observer status in the SCO, but this has been refused, and instead, SCO actively develops relations with the EU.
In a leader in DN 1.13 in 2014, Joschka Fischer felt that Yanukovych's real motives for EU negotiations were to raise Russia's price to keep Ukraine within its sphere of influence. Ukraine was divided, and the eastern and southern parts, in particular, Crimea, wanted a return to Russia, and that the split would have to be solved with violence. Therefore, the EU must provide an explanation for that one tried to squeeze Yanukovych, who has always been a friend of the Kremlin, to sign an Association Agreement without tempting Ukraine more than Russia did.
Fischer hinted that the answer lay in the EU relations with Russia and said that, after the USSR collapsed, Russia lost its status as a world power. Thus, Putin aspired to three strategic objectives when he became president. First, to end the post-Soviet Russia's submission, restore sovereignty over the former Soviet republics, or at least prevent further NATO expansion Eastward and restore Russia's status as a world power.
These goals should not be achieved by military force but by Russia's economic potential and strategic energy policy. Fisher said Ukraine had been subjected to blackmail by Russia as Russia had gone past Ukraine with its pipelines to Europe. The Nord Stream in the Baltic Sea and the new-prospected South Stream from Russia under the Black Sea through Bulgaria, a detour via Greece to Italy and up through Serbia, Hungary, Slovenia to the final destination in Austria. So would the Kremlin have blocked European access to gas pipelines through the Caspian Sea and Central Asia? Hence, Ukraine would have been forced to join Putin's Eurasian Union as Russia could control all the lines to Europe, even those in Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan.
Map of South Stream gas pipeline. Someone should probably take care of displaying Kosovo and Abkhazia correctly. 02.04.2006 Source: Europe_countries_map.png Author: Europe_countries_map.png: SanJose (map), Patrol110 (translation).
Finally, he established that 'Putin's ultimate goal - a fundamental shift in the strategic order in Europe - is becoming increasingly apparent as Russia is approaching it. "Fischer also said that European security, especially those in Poland and the Baltic states, were threatened if Ukraine lost its independence from Russia. He then noted that neither the EU nor the United States had had an effective counter-strategy even if the EU tried to get over Ukraine on its side. But in that, Yanukovych said no, so the EU had lost and could not blame Putin because he managed his country's interests significantly.
Instead, Januchovitj's real motive was that he wanted Ukraine to be an SCO member to access the coveted Asian market. Ukraine must support Russia to reach this goal so that Yanukovych would choose Russia and the future Eurasian Union before the EU of strict economic, for Ukraine auspicious reasons. Being part of SCO, initially as an observer and later as a member of the Eurasian Union, could give Ukraine an infinitely better economy than would have been the case if it ended up in the EU. The EU could not or would not, for strategic reasons to challenge Russia. After the war in Georgia in 2008, one should have in mind that Germany gave Russia free reign in the former Soviet republics.
Putin's strategic goals are on track to be achieved. His skillful actions during the Syria crisis in 2013 could stop the West for the first time since 1999. In addition, Russia won the war in Georgia in 2008, and the formation of the Eurasian Economic Union would undoubtedly give Russia the status of world power. According to the Russian President's website, about forty countries have applied for membership in this Union, including the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), including Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland, Vietnam, India, Israel, Chile, and Peru.
Vladimir Putin and His Vision of a Eurasian Union
As prime minister in 2011, Putin presented his plans to create a Eurasian Union, which Russia and other post-Soviet states supported. "We are creating a huge market comprising over 165 million consumers with a uniform law and free movement of capital, services, and labor," was his thoughts.
"By creating the customs union in the common economic area, we lay the foundation for the future Eurasian Economic Union. Simultaneously, the Customs Union and CES (Common Economic Space) will be increased by involving Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, "he says, adding that" nothing of this entails any revival of the Soviet Union. It would be naive to revive something that has been relegated to history. "He stresses that this union is open to other countries as well. He says: "We are proposing a supranational union that can become one of the modern world poles and a bridge between Europe and the dynamic Asia-Pacific region." Putin says that the customs union and later the Eurasian Union may initiate a dialogue with the EU. Therefore, he seems to say that its possible future relations with the Eurasian Union would help the EU preserve its role as a global player. "A partnership between the Eurasian Union and EU that is economically consistent and balanced will provide the ability to changes in the geopolitical and geo-economic composition of the continent as a whole with a guaranteed global effect,” Vladimir Putin added.
Despite the article’s 8explicit messages, it triggered a plethora of ironic and critical comments within and outside Russia that Putin wanted to restore the Soviet Union or any USSR version 2.0. But the Soviet Union was founded on a revolutionary basis in a different historical era and with Marxism-Leninism as an ideological base, so Putin's vision of a Eurasian Union has nothing to do with the Soviet Union. However, it may be added that Moldova and particularly Ukraine, at least in the beginning, is essential in such a union. According to Putin, later would both the EU and the Eurasian Union become a common supranational community.
In this context, Dr. George Friedman's thesis9on Russian power almost prophetic meaning:
From this perspective, one can understand and explain America's political action in Europe, its pressure on the EU countries in its quest to if not rule out this scenario of a united Europe and Asia through Russia, so at least postpone it indefinitely everything not to lose its leadership position in the world.
Sweden and the Obsession of Russia
It is summer 2013, and I am back in Sweden. On a desolate farm in Hälsingland, I was welcomed by a good friend.
- Hello, Goeran. How are you getting along with your Russian favorite, Vladimir Putin, nowadays?
The friend moves circumstantially in the kitchen, rattling the porcelain and tablecloths, setting the table up with coffee.
- Well, Hugleik10. Everything is good with Putin. He can handle himself and his Russia splendidly fine without interference from us, Swedes.
- I have read your book and have to confess that I admire your knowledge of geo-analysis with well-founded factual material.
- Thank you, Hugleik, and I, as you already know, respect your knowledge of Swedish history with just the emphasis on all the Swedish-Russian wars, even before Gustaf Vasa.
- Thanks, by all means, Goeran Birger. By the way, why do you call yourself not Birger instead of Goeran?
- It just happened, Hugleik. Mother probably thought of the Swedish founder Birger Magnusson. Yes, you know who and what he was. Is it true what is said in the television series “The Swedish history” was, Dick Harrison 11, for instance, is presenting him as a tyrant of the tyrants?
- Birger Jarl, yes, Goeran, most of it is correct about his methods, but it required, of course, extremely drastic action to tackle all small popes in those times in Sweden when the territory consisted of small kingdoms. Småland is a prime example of this. No law existed, so clan leaders had to solve people's problems when they arose. Birger was well cared for by his mother, a widow who thoroughly educated his son-in-law and the Catholic Christian doctrine. That gave him enormous respect. He could maneuver skillfully and crush Folkungs resistance to inch by inch deftly found Sweden 1248th.
- Birger Jarl never had the ambition to attack Russia anyway. What about the Vikings and their crusade in Russia, Hugleik? Not much is known about this in writing?
Territories that were explored and conquered by Northmen or Vikings. Wikipedia, 22/7 2007. Author Sebastian Wallroth.
- No, not much, Goeran, but what I know, so Roerich was one of them who practiced wars of conquest and crusade in Russia. He belonged to the Rus, one of the eastern names of the Vikings, and it is said that Russia has been named after them. Nestor's chronicle refers to that just Rurik´s dynasty has Swedish descent. Vladimir I the Great of Kyiv were of Nordic Varangian descent. With the help of the Vikings, Vladimir defeated his brother Jaropolk and captured Kyiv about 980 in the current Ukraine. Thus, Kievan Rus was founded, which is Russia's core.
- Then you can understand the relationship between these countries, Hugleik. I read that the Russians call Kyiv the cradle of the state.
I spread butter on a sandwich, leaned out the rest of the Calles caviar from a tube, and continued.
- Russia has never attacked Sweden for conquest purposes, so precisely from this point of speaking, one can question the endemic anti-Russian mass media drive in the Kingdom of Three Crowns. How was it really with Magnus Eriksson's Christian crusades in the name of Catholicism in the 1300s? To attack another Christian and Orthodox Christian country?
Guests from overseas. Russian painting by Nikolai Konstantinovich Roerich. Russian artist from St.Petersburg. 1901 Wikipedia. Source http://roerih.ru/rerih/34.php.
- Magnus Eriksson undertook his first crusade against Novgorod in 1348, Goeran, after his messengers requested the great men of Novgorod to adopt Catholicism as a religion unconditionally. He was undoubtedly strongly influenced by Birgitta Birgersdotter, or as she was also called "Saint. Birgitta," a close friend to him and his family. She was canonized by the Pope and focused on the pagan enemy Orthodox Russia in the East. "Justice Banner is raised. The sword shall speak. "With this statement, she meant that if the Russians did not understand how stupid they were not to want to switch to Catholicism, yes, then they must be killed... However, Magnus Eriksson was forced to abort the siege and return to Sweden since the Black Death broke out at home. He left a small force only, and Novgorod regained control. However, two years later, the king returned to Novgorod at the second crusade amid the plague. He took the city, but the Russians recaptured relatively quickly, and the Swedish soldiers were killed. The king and war leadership fled head over heels back to Sweden.
- Yes, so from the Viking era, Sweden had unprovoked attacked Russia solely for the conquest purpose, I said.
- Sweden must secure its borders but primarily expand their living space or Lebensraum, Hitler said.
- The geographical and geopolitical purposes, Hugleik, were good enough to achieve fairly certain geographical borders like the Torne river against Finland or the mountain ranges against Norway and coastlines against the Baltic and the North Sea. Sweden never had any real reason to expand eastward. It seems apparent that Sweden attacked Russia from the beginning in purely conquest objective as the primary goal. We will have to blame ourselves for future Russian attacks against the coastal areas facing the Baltic. Then came Gustav Vasa´s Russian war and why we wanted to master the Baltics. It is said that the first of Gustaf Vasa´s Russian War 1554-57 was a war of aggression under strategic threat from Russia during the time of Ivan the Great.
- What do you mean by strategic threat. Hugleik? Did anyone have any reason to be exposed to a strategic danger? So it was indeed Russia with a Swedish army coming from the other side of the Baltic Sea right up to the border.
- Yes, but now we were already there and came, inter alia, Finland to help because there were problems with the boundary adjustment since the Treaty of Nöteborg 1323
- Yes, but, Hugliek, what had Sweden in Finland to do at all? Sweden did not have enough large populations to require such vast territories.
- We must help our sister nation, Finns.
- Ah, our sister nation! Later, it emerged that Finland favored Russia in front of Sweden as a "protector." How do you explain this fact, Hugleik?
- We release it now, Goeran. One can only conclude that the Swedes won the first battle of Kivennapa on March 11, 1555. Ulf Sparre won for his soldiers had skiing in the harsh winter. The Russians won the second battle at Nöteborg 15-29 September 1555 and Sweden the Third Battle at Vyborg. They were unable to drive away from the Swedes, and there was a feeling of peace in Novgorod on April 2, 1557, where Sweden had to pay damages of 200 000 marks örtug12 and that there would be downtime for 40 years and no boundary changes would take place.
- Yes, but I do not call this a victory for Sweden Hugliek. One did not defeat Russia in the whole or capture Moscow. On the contrary, they clung to only a small territory within a limited area. By the way, what do you mean that Sweden had the reason to keep to the Baltic?
- To be able to answer you on that, we will move forward. Wait, I will just open the door for my son.
I looked out. A new shiny Japanese jeep was already in the yard, and the son's steady steps were heard inside the hall.
- No, but howdy, Birger Jarl, hehe ... how is it nowadays?
- Well, it is walking around, Nordman Viking 13.
The son was heavily built and at least as tall as his father.
- I have read your book about Putin, and yes, you know, I'd think Russia is a clean plague. Though you have written it well and to the point, I wonder how much can be neutral when speaking about Russia. I'm afraid of the Russians. It would be very best if we had a good relationship with the United States. The country is an accurate role model for Sweden, I think.
- Real role model? What are you saying, Nordman Viking? First colonized the Europeans, the natural colonizers with the UK leading the way, America in the 1700s and then during the westward expansion 26 million Indians were killed. During the 1900s, it was the United States' invasion and war of aggression by strategic purposes, particularly in Europe and Asia, to achieve world domination. The United States is the only power that hitherto attacked unprotected civilians with nuclear weapons. During World War II, the United States landed in Europe expressly to ensure that they would get a foothold in this strategic part of the world to prevent the colonial victim’s patron, the USSR, as the ideology of Communism was ready to liberate all of the colonialist’s oppressed people. In the current situation, the United States is attacking Afghan civilians' wedding suites using drones and spies on the world with the NSA's help, which uses social media such as Facebook and Google. Even against their population. The United States is acting as a prosecutor, judge, and executioner simultaneously, all in the name of freedom.
- What gibberish ... well. But Goeran, are you talking about the Golden Age as usual? I want to get Sweden back as it was during King Gustav II Adolf and especially Karl XII. The knight is my absolute role model. He rides fearlessly into the enemy country on the crusade and conquest. A cathartic acid test. A strengthening of the Swedish race.
- Oops, now it sounds like an echo of the Nazi ideology.
- No, Goeran, it was the Nazis who took after the ideas of the Northmen and the Vikings.
What do you say about this, Hugleik? I asked.
Battle of Narva 1700 Source: Wikipedia http://www.belygorod.ru/img2/RusskieKartinki/Used/0KocebuAE_SrazhPodNarvoyARTM.jpg Author Alexander von Kotzebue 1815-1189.
- Yes, it is true, but according to Professor Dick Harrison, the Swedish success depends on all countries around Sweden at that time was much debilitated.
- He is probably right here, Goeran.
- So, what was it that made that Sweden lost the Battle of Poltava, and thus its superpower status despite their, in military tactics and equipment, superior Caroleans? I asked.
The Orthodox Church on the battlefield at Poltava 1709 as a memorial. Wikipedia 18/4 2006 Author Луц Фишер-Лампрехт.
- Then we move back in time to Gustaf Vasa and the Vasa dynasty. Gustaf Vasa had let the crown be inherited, which about a hundred years later, that in my opinion, had severe and far-reaching consequences for the Palatine dynasty's time, specifically Greatness. Carl X must be considered the one who built up and perpetuated the tremendous Swedish power. However, he was an incredibly wasteful and exuberant king. He ate, drank, and smoked way too much, and he died at a young age after a cold that led to pneumonia. But what was worse, so he let the nobles get too much influence, and the party was like never before at the nation's expense. When Charles X died did the crown was passed down to Charles XI. Still, he was only five when his father died, so he has added a regency led by Dowager Queen Hedvig Eleonora but in practice, the chancellor Magnus Gabriel De la Gardie, who took over the government of Sweden. He focused primarily on culture and the construction of various monuments and was not interested in foreign policy. Noble titles and military degrees were awarded without these being backed by solid knowledge. It turned out to have serious consequences later when Denmark attacked Sweden in 1675, and it came to a naval battle as the Swedes lost due to incompetent naval officers who received their awards as gifts. In the beginning, there were doubts that Carl XI would be able to take over the crown when he came of age. Also, he had problems with the studies that were known now because he had dyslexia. However, it turned out that he was a worthy commander. But then the Swedes and Danes clashed in the Scania War, which was lost at sea, but where the Swedes stood against overland’s became very bloody with significant losses of about fifty percent. Carl XI drew some conclusions and imposed the so-called trustee inquisition, reduction, and depletion of old Council authority that drew all nobility assets in favor of autocracy. Sweden was financially ruined after the peace in 1679, and it was necessary to strengthen the military power to preserve the empire properly. We are now in the time of autocracy or, as it is also called, "the Kingdom of God's Grace."
- But Caroleans? When do they come into the picture? Nordman Viking, that's something for you, your old admirer of the Knights?
- They came in connection with the so-called Allotment, Goeran. At Gustav Vasa´s time,
