2019 01 Your Value Investing Newsletter by Quant Investing / Dein Aktien Newsletter / Your Stock Investing Newsletter E-Book

Tim du Toit

• Herausgeber: blue panther books
• Kategorie: Fachliteratur
• Sprache: Englisch

Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2019

Beschreibung

### english below ### Der Inhalt ist in Englisch, für die Aktien-Empfehlungen reichen geringe Englisch Kenntnisse. Du möchtest in Aktien investieren, weist aber nicht in welche und willst Zeit sparen? Du möchtest langfristig durch das Investieren in verschiedene Werte Gewinn machen? Dann ist der Quant Investing Value Newsletter genau das richtige für Dich! Jeden ersten Dienstag im Monat gibt Dir dieser Newsletter klare Tipps zu agieren: kaufen, halten, verkaufen! Lade Dir gleich die Leseprobe herunter und schaue Dir an, wie die Aktien ausgewählt werden! So kannst Du die Tipps nutzen: 1. Du hast regelmäßig Geld, dass Du investieren möchtest: Alle Aktien Empfehlungen sind ca. 2.000 Euro Investitionen. Spare ca. 2.000 Euro und kaufe eine oder zwei Aktien aus dem Portfolio – das funktioniert sehr gut, Du bekommst ein erstes Gefühl für Aktien und kannst sofort loslegen. Dann halte Dich an die Anweisungen: Verkaufe die Aktie bei "sell" und kaufe neu bei "buy". 2. Du hast 100.000 Euro oder mehr, die Du investieren möchtest: Dann schaue Dir einfach die Portfolios an, steige noch heute ein und fülle Dein Portfolio mit den richtig interessanten Aktien. Wichtige generelle Regeln (auch außerhalb des Newsletters): 1. Trailing-Stop-Loss: Damit Du nicht Aktien verkaufst, wenn es schon zu spät ist, gilt die Regel: Verkaufe immer dann, wenn der aktuelle Wert der Aktie 20% unter dem höchsten Stand seit der Empfehlung dieser Aktie fällt. D.h. im schlimmsten Fall: 20% Verlust. 2. Kaufe immer möglichst früh nach der Empfehlung in diesem Newsletter und versuche immer den im Newsletter definierten Preis zu erzielen. Kleine Schwankungen egal, aber deutliche Abweichungen sind zu vermeiden. 3. Du darfst jederzeit Deine Entscheidungen treffen und kaufen und verkaufen wann Du willst. Der Newsletter ist ein guter Leitfaden mit dem die Herausgeber auch selbst Ihr Geld anlegen. 4. Jede Aktie wird monatlich und nochmal nach einem Jahr geprüft. Verpasse also keinen weiteren Newsletter. ### english ### Do you have limited time, want to invest in stocks but don't know what to buy? Do you want to make a long-term profits by investing in a portfolio of good performing companies? Then our Quant Value Newsletter is just what you need! On the first Tuesday every month this newsletter gives you easy to understand instructions on exactly what to buy and what to sell! Download the sample to immediately see what values are used to select the shares! This is how the newsletter can help you: 1. If you regularly have money that you want to invest: All stock recommendations can be made if you have around €2,000 to invest. So save up to €2,000 and buy one or two of the up to 6 investment ideas for your portfolio - this works very well to give you an idea of what investing in shares is all about and can start immediately. Then you simply continue to follow the newsletter's instructions: Sell a stock when it says "sell" and buy a new investment when it says "buy". 2. If you have €100,000 or more you want to invest: Then you simply take a look at our three portfolios and you can immediately start buying really interesting stocks for your portfolio. Important general rules (also apply outside the newsletter): 1. Trailing stop loss: To prevent you from selling shares before it's too late use the following rule: always sell when the current stock price falls over 20% from the highest price since the stock was recommended. This means your worst case loss is 20%. 2. Buy as soon as possible after our recommendation and always try to buy as close as possible to the price recommended. Small differences do not matter, but large ones are to be avoided. 3. You can make your own buy & sell decisions anytime you want. The newsletter is a good guide the publishers use to invest their own money. 4. Each share is audited monthly and again after one year. So don't miss our newsletters.

Leseprobe

Portfolio changes this month

Europe

XXXXX

XXXXX

North America

XXXXX

XXXXX

Asia

XXXXX

XXXXX

Stop-loss portfolio changes

XXXXX

Sell

XXXXX

Sell

XXXX Limited

Sell

XXXX Ltd.

Sell

XXXXX Inc.

Sell

(Details of the stop-loss system on the Investment Strategy page)

Markets above 200 day SMA

Europe

XXXX

North America

XXX

Australia

XXXX

Japan

XXXX

Table of contents

Newsletter Investment Strategy

10

Portfolio – Europe

11

Portfolio – North America

12

Portfolio – Asia

13

Disclaimer

14

Average return of all ideas

Europe

31.5%

North America

17.9%

Asia

11.1%

Portfolio cash %

Europe

93%

North America

97%

Asia

94%

Portfolio changes this month

Europe

XXXXX

XXXXX

North America

XXXXX

XXXXX

Asia

XXXXX

XXXXX

Stop-loss portfolio changes

XXXXX

Sell

XXXXX

Sell

XXXX Limited

Sell

XXXX Ltd.

Sell

XXXXX Inc.

Sell

(Details of the stop-loss system on the Investment Strategy page)

Markets above 200 day SMA

Europe

XXXX

North America

XXX

Australia

XXXX

Japan

XXXX

Table of contents

Newsletter Investment Strategy

10

Portfolio – Europe

11

Portfolio – North America

12

Portfolio – Asia

13

Disclaimer

14

Average return of all ideas

Europe

31.5%

North America

17.9%

Asia

11.1%

Portfolio cash %

Europe

93%

North America

97%

Asia

94%

If this is the first issue of the newsletter you are reading here are a few links to get you started:

This is how we select ideas for the Quant Value newsletter

Frequently asked questions answered:

I have just subscribed how do I start?

How to follow the 20% trailing stop loss rule

You can see all the frequently asked questions here.

Now on to this month’s newsletter…

Newsletter’s 2018 performance

Here is the newsletter’s performance in 2018:

Market Performance

Europe

European Portfolio

+0.3%

European Portfolio (Excl. cash)

+3.4%

European STOXX 600 Index

-13.2%

North America

North American Portfolio

-0.2%

North American Portfolio (Excl. cash)

-1.6%

US S&P 500 Index

-6.2%

Asia

Asia Portfolio

-7.9%

Asia Portfolio (Excl. cash)

-17.5%

S&P Asia Pacific Index

-3.3%

Source: Yahoo Finance

European portfolio up 0.3% - beating the market in spite of 93% cash.

The European portfolio ended 2018 up 0.3% - way better than the market. Also if you excluded the average cash holding over the year of 90% the performance beat the market by an even larger percentage.

North America down 0.2% better than the market which was 6.2% down

The North American portfolio ended 2018 down 0.2%, better than the S&P 500 index which was down 6.2% and this is mainly because the portfolio held around 90% cash throughout the year.

Asia down 7.9% more than the market which was only down 3.3%

The Asia portfolio performed worse than the index because the Japanese market – where most of the investment ideas came from – performed substantially worse than the South Korean market (included in the index) which ended 2018 nearly unchanged.

As you know no South Korean ideas are recommended because the market is hard to invest in for private investors.

Cash percentages still high

Because it was hard to find attractive investment ideas (in North America and Europe) and a lot of trailing stop losses were triggered it meant the cash part of the portfolios remained high and increased substantially over the year.

At the end of 2018 Europe was 93% in cash, North America 98% and Asia 86% in cash.

Your cash part will be different

The percentage of your portfolio in cash will of course be different, but it gives you an idea of how much of each portfolio (Europe, North America, and Asia) is invested at the moment.

As I have mentioned I am very happy holding large amounts of cash in all portfolios when I cannot find quality undervalued companies to recommend. Also with the US market very overvalued (when it falls it drags all markets down) I am more than happy to hold a lot of cash.

How we calculate performance

Before I show you more performance numbers, first a quick reminder of how we calculate the newsletter’s performance.

Exclude dividends and include 2% fees – this is conservative

We calculate the performance without dividends and include a 1% buying and selling fee (2% in total) for all investments bought and sold.

Dividends are not included (although this would make performance look better) in order to make the performance figures the same as the indices (which also exclude dividends).

The only time I include dividends is when I mention the performance of a specific investment idea. For example, Company X returned 30%.

A 1% buying and selling fee is very conservative; you can get away with much lower fees if you use an online broker (my broker charges 0.25%).

Equal to the results you can get

I do this to make the newsletter’s performance the same as what you can make, in the real world, if you follow its recommendations.

Performance since inception

The following charts show the overall performance of the newsletter since the service was launched.

European recommendations (started July 2010)

Up 152% over eight years; index only 33% (just over 4.5 times better)

If you had followed all of the European investment ideas since July 2010 when the newsletter was started, you would have a return of 152%.

Compare this to the result had you invested in the European STOXX 600 index - your return would have been only 33%.

This is 4.6 times better than the index.

And if you only look at the return of the investment ideas (ignoring cash in the portfolio) the performance was even better at +358%, over 11 times better than the index.

This is what the yearly returns look like:

As you would expect the returns excluding the cash in the portfolios (green line) are higher on the up as well as down side (no cash cushion) but the overall return is outstanding.

Another way of looking at it is that if you invested €1,000 in the European portfolio, your investment would have grown to €2,524, compared to only €1,330 if you invested in the index and €4,580 if you were fully invested in the investment ideas.

Growth of €1000 invested in European ideas vs the index

Percentage of positive investments 75% and average returns 32%

European Investment Ideas

Total number of companies recommended

165

Average return of all recommendations

32%

Percentage of ideas with a positive return

75%

Since July 2010 the newsletter has recommended 165 European companies, all of which, on average, would have given you a return of +32%.

As you can see, the returns have been outstanding!

North American recommendations (started October 2011)

This is what the returns of the North American portfolio looks like since we started recommending investment ideas there in October 2011.

This is what the yearly returns look like:

The newsletter’s performance in North America has been disappointing

The North American portfolio has not done nearly as well as in Europe.

But as you can see this is largely due to the high amounts of cash the portfolio had. If you look at the performance of only the companies it was a lot better but still below the S&P 500 index.

Percentage of positive investments 59% and average return 19%

North American Investment Ideas

Total number of companies recommended

106

Average return of all recommendations

18%

Percentage of ideas with a positive return

59%

In spite of lagging the index the investment ideas have performed very well, since October 2011 the newsletter has recommended 106 North American investment ideas, all of which would have given you an average return of +17.8%.

Change the strategy?

Although the North American investment ideas have lagged behind the S&P 500 index, I am not planning to change the model I use to select investment ideas.

As you know, regardless of how well they have performed in the past, even the best investment strategies can underperform the market as Joel Greenblatt mentioned in his excellent book The Little Book that Still Beats the Market before they catch up and start to outperform again.

Why bad performance is good

In his book, Joel also says that periods of underperformance are a good thing for a good investment strategy, because without such periods, the strategy would be used by so many investors that it would stop working.

We have to be patient

As I have told you in the past - we just have to be patient. It is simply a matter of time before the North American strategy starts outperforming the market.

Asia recommendations (started January 2016)

This is how the Asian portfolio has performed since we started tracking its performance in January 2017. In 2016 the Asian ideas were included in the European portfolio.

As the Asian portfolio is relatively new (we only started tracking performance on 1 January 2017) – in 2016 the Asia ideas were included in the European portfolio.

Asian portfolio yearly performance

Percentage of positive investments 55% and average return 11%

Asia Investment Ideas

Total number of companies recommended

55

Average return of all recommendations

11%

Percentage of ideas with a positive return

55%

In spite of lagging the index the ideas have done very well. Since January 2017 the newsletter has recommended 55 Asian investment ideas, all of which would have given you an average return of +11.4%.

Reading RecommendationsThis month I would like to recommend that you read one of my favourite articles of 2018 which I like to think back on.

It gives you an idea of how important “long tails” are to your returns and backs its idea up with statistics. It may give you a new way of thinking about certain aspects about life, as it did for me.

It is only a 2 minute read for a great life lesson.

https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/tails-you-win/

Wishing you profitable investing

Head Analyst

Reminder – The Quant Value newsletter is published on the first Tuesday of the month – so look for the next issue in your inbox on Tuesday 5 February 2019.

Don’t buy if the markets are falling

The newsletter only recommends new investment ideas if the moving average of the respective market index is above its 200 day simple moving average.

For example, only if the S&P 500 index is above its 200 day SMA, and I can find good undervalued companies, will recommend investment ideas in North America.

If the S&P 500 index is below its 200 day moving average no North American companies will be recommended because it means the market is falling.

The 200-day SMA rule only applies to the recommendation of new investment ideas – on the first Tuesday of the month, the stop loss strategy (see below) still applies.

The indices the newsletter uses

The indices we use:

North America –

The S&P 500 Index

|

The S&P 500 200-day simple moving average

Europe –

The European STOXX 600 index

|

The Euro STOXX 600 200-day simple moving average

Asia –

The Japanese TOPIX Index

|

The Australian S&P ASX 200 index

(Click on the links (blue text above) to get index information and see the index with its 200-day simple moving average)

To limit your losses - Stop Loss strategy

In March 2015 the newsletter started following a strict stop loss system which sells an investment if it has fallen more than 20% from the all-time high.

Stop-loss Rules

The following are the rules of the newsletter’s stop loss strategy:

A trailing stop-loss where you calculate the losses from the highest price the company has reached since it was recommended

Only look to see if the stop-loss percentage has been exceeded once a month, on the newsletter’s publication – the first Tuesday of the month. If you look at it on a daily basis you may sell if the share price becomes volatile. This will also ensure that you keep your trading costs as low as possible.

Sell your investment if at the monthly evaluation date the trailing stop-loss level of 20% has been exceeded

Measure the trailing stop-loss in the currency of the company’s primary listing. This means measure the stop-loss of a Swiss company in Swiss Francs (CHF) even if your portfolio currency is Euro (EUR).

Adjust the trailing stop-loss for dividend payments as the share price usually falls by the amount of the dividend payment.

Reinvest the cash from the sale in a current newsletter investment idea. This will make sure that you sell losing investments and invest the proceeds in the current best ideas.

General Note

This newsletter and its content are provided to you for informational purposes only and any discussion of past performance of any security, other investment or investment strategy should not be considered as indicative or a guarantee of future performance.

It does not constitute personalised financial advice nor an endorsement or solicitation to make any investment.

Please do your own due diligence or hire a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. It is your money and your responsibility.

The information herein is not intended to be personal legal or investment advice and may not be appropriate or applicable for all readers. If personal advice is needed, the services of a qualified legal, investment or tax professional should be sought.

The price and value of securities referred to in this newsletter will fluctuate. Loss of all of the original capital invested in a securities discussed in this newsletter may occur.

Certain transactions, including those involving futures, options, and other derivatives, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors.

Due to many factors and actual and subsequent events over which we have no influence, performance and/or outcomes may differ substantially from any estimates, projections or predictions that might have been made in this newsletter.

This research is, to the best of our knowledge, based on generally accessible sources which are reliable and accurate. However, no liability can be accepted for any errors or inaccuracies in information derived from these sources. The information in this publication has not been checked for accuracy or its relevance to current events. Consequently, no liability can be assumed for the completeness and accuracy of this report.

Serendipity Ventures (UG) haftungsbeschränkt has a subscription and advertising based business model and neither it nor the analyst receive any compensation for providing specific information, data, opinions, estimates and projections or recommendations in this report.

The author receives no compensation and is not affiliated with the companies reviewed in this report with the possible exception of being a shareholder.

Company-Specific Disclosures

This publication constitutes research of a non-binding nature on the market situation and the investment instruments cited herein at the time of this publication on 04.01.2019.

The indicated time horizon of investment recommendations is 12 months.