2019 02 Your Value Investing Newsletter by Quant Investing / Dein Aktien Newsletter / Your Stock Investing Newsletter E-Book

Tim du Toit

• Herausgeber: blue panther books
• Kategorie: Fachliteratur
• Sprache: Englisch

Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2019

Beschreibung

### english below ### Der Inhalt ist in Englisch, für die Aktien-Empfehlungen reichen geringe Englisch Kenntnisse. Du möchtest in Aktien investieren, weist aber nicht in welche und willst Zeit sparen? Du möchtest langfristig durch das Investieren in verschiedene Werte Gewinn machen? Dann ist der Quant Investing Value Newsletter genau das richtige für Dich! Jeden ersten Dienstag im Monat gibt Dir dieser Newsletter klare Tipps zu agieren: kaufen, halten, verkaufen! Lade Dir gleich die Leseprobe herunter und schaue Dir an, wie die Aktien ausgewählt werden! So kannst Du die Tipps nutzen: 1. Du hast regelmäßig Geld, dass Du investieren möchtest: Alle Aktien Empfehlungen sind ca. 2.000 Euro Investitionen. Spare ca. 2.000 Euro und kaufe eine oder zwei Aktien aus dem Portfolio – das funktioniert sehr gut, Du bekommst ein erstes Gefühl für Aktien und kannst sofort loslegen. Dann halte Dich an die Anweisungen: Verkaufe die Aktie bei "sell" und kaufe neu bei "buy". 2. Du hast 100.000 Euro oder mehr, die Du investieren möchtest: Dann schaue Dir einfach die Portfolios an, steige noch heute ein und fülle Dein Portfolio mit den richtig interessanten Aktien. Wichtige generelle Regeln (auch außerhalb des Newsletters): 1. Trailing-Stop-Loss: Damit Du nicht Aktien verkaufst, wenn es schon zu spät ist, gilt die Regel: Verkaufe immer dann, wenn der aktuelle Wert der Aktie 20% unter dem höchsten Stand seit der Empfehlung dieser Aktie fällt. D.h. im schlimmsten Fall: 20% Verlust. 2. Kaufe immer möglichst früh nach der Empfehlung in diesem Newsletter und versuche immer den im Newsletter definierten Preis zu erzielen. Kleine Schwankungen egal, aber deutliche Abweichungen sind zu vermeiden. 3. Du darfst jederzeit Deine Entscheidungen treffen und kaufen und verkaufen wann Du willst. Der Newsletter ist ein guter Leitfaden mit dem die Herausgeber auch selbst Ihr Geld anlegen. 4. Jede Aktie wird monatlich und nochmal nach einem Jahr geprüft. Verpasse also keinen weiteren Newsletter. ### english ### Do you have limited time, want to invest in stocks but don't know what to buy? Do you want to make a long-term profits by investing in a portfolio of good performing companies? Then our Quant Value Newsletter is just what you need! On the first Tuesday every month this newsletter gives you easy to understand instructions on exactly what to buy and what to sell! Download the sample to immediately see what values are used to select the shares! This is how the newsletter can help you: 1. If you regularly have money that you want to invest: All stock recommendations can be made if you have around €2,000 to invest. So save up to €2,000 and buy one or two of the up to 6 investment ideas for your portfolio - this works very well to give you an idea of what investing in shares is all about and can start immediately. Then you simply continue to follow the newsletter's instructions: Sell a stock when it says "sell" and buy a new investment when it says "buy". 2. If you have €100,000 or more you want to invest: Then you simply take a look at our three portfolios and you can immediately start buying really interesting stocks for your portfolio. Important general rules (also apply outside the newsletter): 1. Trailing stop loss: To prevent you from selling shares before it's too late use the following rule: always sell when the current stock price falls over 20% from the highest price since the stock was recommended. This means your worst case loss is 20%. 2. Buy as soon as possible after our recommendation and always try to buy as close as possible to the price recommended. Small differences do not matter, but large ones are to be avoided. 3. You can make your own buy & sell decisions anytime you want. The newsletter is a good guide the publishers use to invest their own money. 4. Each share is audited monthly and again after one year. So don't miss our newsletters.

Leseprobe

Portfolio changes this month

Europe

XXXX

XXX

North America

XXXX

XXXX

Asia

XXXX

XXXX

Stop-loss portfolio changes

XXXX

Sell

XXXXX

Sell

XXXX

Sell

(Details of the stop-loss system on the Investment Strategy page)

Markets above 200 day SMA

Europe

No

North America

No

Australia

No

Japan

No

Table of contents

Newsletter Investment Strategy

8

Portfolio – Europe

9

Portfolio – North America

10

Portfolio – Asia

11

Disclaimer

12

Average return of all ideas

Europe

32.0%

North America

18.0%

Asia

10.9%

Portfolio cash %

Europe

94%

North America

97%

Asia

98%

Portfolio changes this month

Europe

XXXX

XXX

North America

XXXX

XXXX

Asia

XXXX

XXXX

Stop-loss portfolio changes

XXXX

Sell

XXXXX

Sell

XXXX

Sell

(Details of the stop-loss system on the Investment Strategy page)

Markets above 200 day SMA

Europe

No

North America

No

Australia

No

Japan

No

Table of contents

Newsletter Investment Strategy

8

Portfolio – Europe

9

Portfolio – North America

10

Portfolio – Asia

11

Disclaimer

12

Average return of all ideas

Europe

32.0%

North America

18.0%

Asia

10.9%

Portfolio cash %

Europe

94%

North America

97%

Asia

98%

If this is the first issue of the newsletter you are reading here are a few links to get you started:

This is how we select ideas for the Quant Value newsletter

Frequently asked questions answered:

I have just subscribed how do I start?

How to follow the 20% trailing stop loss rule

You can see all the frequently asked questions here.

Now on to this month’s newsletter…

This month you can read about a number of things that you can expect in 2019. But first as always the portfolio changes.

Things you can expect in 2019

Let me start by making it clear that I have NO forecasting ability, exactly zero - but neither does anyone else – as many research studies have conclusively proven.

Remember if anyone says they have they are lying.

So this article is not about forecasting but about things that may happen to you and my ideas to help you make the best of them.

The following points are loosely based on the great article by Ben Carlson which he called 10 Things Investors Can Expect in 2019.

1. Your 2019 returns will be influenced by how you feel about what happened in 2018

Let’s first look at what happened in 2018 and 2017.

As you can see no major stock market had a positive return last year! For Emerging Markets it was a disaster!

If you had a bad year last year you will most likely be a lot more careful this year whereas if you ended the year with low losses you may be more aggressive with new investments.

What the newsletter does

In the newsletter follows a system that helps you ignore the above emotions as far as possible. The newsletter simply:

Buys good quality undervalued companies when the markets are moving up,

Stops buying when they fall and

Sells individual companies when they start falling (break the trailing stop loss)

A lot of investors underestimate how important it is to keep losses low.

It is of course important to keep your capital safe but the real problem is that large losses also hurt you psychologically. Worst case scenario it may lead to sell all your investments near the lowest point.

This completely removes the chance that you can make up your losses but at this point you may not care – you simply want the painful loss to stop.

If you keep losses low it gives you the courage to get back into the market once the worse is over, and that is what the newsletter helps you with.

This is why the newsletter is boring

The system may also the reason why a few subscribers have said the newsletter is boring. You read about the system all the time because I want to show you why you should follow it and, more importantly, why you should stick to it.

2. Something completely unexpected will happen

You can be sure that something no one expected will happen this year. This can be company news, country events like Brexit and any other event that causes wild market moments.

This is simply a fact of life, it also happens in your personal life.

The best you can do is to keep calm, be patient to see what happens afterwards.

What the newsletter does

That is also where the newsletter helps you.

It only looks at market movements, trailing stop losses and new investment ideas once a month. This means wild movements have settled down and if it’s still necessary companies are sold and new ideas recommended.

3. The best investment you can make will likely be an increase in your savings

This is so true, you need money to invest and this is one of the few things you can control.

It does not matter if you can invest the money right away or only later when good investment opportunities arise.

4. There will be other people getting richer than you (or claiming to be getting richer than you)

You know the story - there is always a smartass at every gathering that keeps on talking about a wild return he or she made recently – most likely with an investment that is in the news a lot, think about bitcoin last year. You know how that one turned out in the end!

I just usually smile and say well done and then move on to talk about something else. Just like you I cannot talk about the companies I am invested in because no one knows them.

5. Expect plenty of I told you so’s

This was one of the worst things I heard a lot of when I was still a fund manager.

At the end of the year colleagues, customers and managers asked why the fund did not own the best performing companies or asset classes.

Well you had to own these at the BEGINNING of the year when no one knew that they will go up that much. I guess this has happened to you a lot as well – its human nature I guess.

Don’t let it get you down is my best advice. It is going to happen, just ignore the comments and stick to your investment strategy.

Also don’t say this to yourself, there is just no way you could have known at the start of the year.

6. There will be a stock, fund, strategy, or asset class that skyrockets that you wish you owned more of

You know what I am talking about, we all do this. It is similar to point 5 except you do this to yourself.

Just smile when you think of how nice it would have been to own more of that asset that went through the roof and move on following your investment strategy.

It’s no use beating yourself up about something you could not have known.

7. You won’t be able to distinguish between luck and skill in anyone’s investment results

This is the most frustrating things about investing. Only over long periods of time – 7 to 10 years or more – can you tell if you are a really a good investor or if the returns were just luck.

That is why we do long term back tests all the time to make sure the investment strategy we use in the newsletter is not just based on luck over a short period.

This is also the way you should look at the good or great investment performance of anyone else. You have no way of knowing if it was luck or skill.

So the only clever thing you can do is follow your investment strategy that is based on back tests over long periods of time in up and down markets, like the strategy you follow in the newsletter.

8. Diversification will make you feel silly

This goes back to point 5 and 6 above where you wish you owned more of the best performing company in your portfolio or the asset that went through the roof.

Again, there is no way to know this and that is why the newsletter recommends that you invest the same 2% of your portfolio in each investment idea.

I know it is very conservative but it spreads your risk, keeps losses low and gives each investment an equal chance to perform.

Even though you know that you are following a good investment strategy that will give you great returns over the long term, it does not mean you know what companies will give you the best performance .

The most important thing is that you stick to the strategy.

Reading Recommendations

This month we found quite a few interesting articles for you:1. The first one is from the investment management firm I often refer to: GMO. Is the U.S. Stock Market Bubble Bursting? A New Model Suggests “Yes”www.gmo.com (free registration required)

Key Points from the article:

A new model suggests that from early 2017 through much of 2018, the U.S. stock market was a bubble.

Driven by negative changes in sentiment, the bubble started to deflate in the fourth quarter of 2018, in spite of strong fundamentals.

Our advice, consistent with our portfolio positions established in Q1 2018 – as usual, we were early – is to own as little U.S. equity as your career risk allows.

2. In the second article we have a small and simple Analysis of 2018 U.S. Factor Returns (Factors are simply valuation ratios)

3. The third article gives you a summary of the current market conditions based on statistics and why 2019 may be a bear market: Potential Potholes of 2019

4. If you ever wondered who owns the stock market you will find this interesting:

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

5. The last one is for the laughs or to contemplate. The reason why it is not a good idea to become a billionaire (at least in China).

Wishing you profitable investing

Head Analyst

Reminder – The Quant Value newsletter is published on the first Tuesday of the month – so look for the next issue in your inbox on Tuesday 5 March 2019.

Don’t buy if the markets are falling

The newsletter only recommends new investment ideas if the moving average of the respective market index is above its 200 day simple moving average.

For example, only if the S&P 500 index is above its 200 day SMA, and I can find good undervalued companies, will recommend investment ideas in North America.

If the S&P 500 index is below its 200 day moving average no North American companies will be recommended because it means the market is falling.

The 200-day SMA rule only applies to the recommendation of new investment ideas – on the first Tuesday of the month, the stop loss strategy (see below) still applies.

The indices the newsletter uses

The indices we use:

North America –

The S&P 500 Index

|

The S&P 500 200-day simple moving average

Europe –

The European STOXX 600 index

|

The Euro STOXX 600 200-day simple moving average

Asia –

The Japanese TOPIX Index

|

The Australian S&P ASX 200 index

(Click on the links (blue text above) to get index information and see the index with its 200-day simple moving average)

To limit your losses - Stop Loss strategy

In March 2015 the newsletter started following a strict stop loss system which sells an investment if it has fallen more than 20% from the all-time high.

Stop-loss Rules

The following are the rules of the newsletter’s stop loss strategy:

A trailing stop-loss where you calculate the losses from the highest price the company has reached since it was recommended

Only look to see if the stop-loss percentage has been exceeded once a month, on the newsletter’s publication – the first Tuesday of the month. If you look at it on a daily basis you may sell if the share price becomes volatile. This will also ensure that you keep your trading costs as low as possible.

Sell your investment if at the monthly evaluation date the trailing stop-loss level of 20% has been exceeded

Measure the trailing stop-loss in the currency of the company’s primary listing. This means measure the stop-loss of a Swiss company in Swiss Francs (CHF) even if your portfolio currency is Euro (EUR).

Adjust the trailing stop-loss for dividend payments as the share price usually falls by the amount of the dividend payment.

Reinvest the cash from the sale in a current newsletter investment idea. This will make sure that you sell losing investments and invest the proceeds in the current best ideas.

General Note

This newsletter and its content are provided to you for informational purposes only and any discussion of past performance of any security, other investment or investment strategy should not be considered as indicative or a guarantee of future performance.

It does not constitute personalised financial advice nor an endorsement or solicitation to make any investment.

Please do your own due diligence or hire a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. It is your money and your responsibility.

The information herein is not intended to be personal legal or investment advice and may not be appropriate or applicable for all readers. If personal advice is needed, the services of a qualified legal, investment or tax professional should be sought.

The price and value of securities referred to in this newsletter will fluctuate. Loss of all of the original capital invested in a securities discussed in this newsletter may occur.

Certain transactions, including those involving futures, options, and other derivatives, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors.

Due to many factors and actual and subsequent events over which we have no influence, performance and/or outcomes may differ substantially from any estimates, projections or predictions that might have been made in this newsletter.

This research is, to the best of our knowledge, based on generally accessible sources which are reliable and accurate. However, no liability can be accepted for any errors or inaccuracies in information derived from these sources. The information in this publication has not been checked for accuracy or its relevance to current events. Consequently, no liability can be assumed for the completeness and accuracy of this report.

Serendipity Ventures (UG) haftungsbeschränkt has a subscription and advertising based business model and neither it nor the analyst receive any compensation for providing specific information, data, opinions, estimates and projections or recommendations in this report.

The author receives no compensation and is not affiliated with the companies reviewed in this report with the possible exception of being a shareholder.

Company-Specific Disclosures

This publication constitutes research of a non-binding nature on the market situation and the investment instruments cited herein at the time of this publication on 01.02.2019.

The indicated time horizon of investment recommendations is 12 months.