Business Trends in Practice E-Book

Bernard Marr

• Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
• Kategorie: Fachliteratur
• Sprache: Englisch

Seitenzahl: 435

Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2021

Beschreibung

WINNER OF THE BUSINESS BOOK OF THE YEAR AWARD 2022! Stay one step ahead of the competition with this expert review of the most impactful and disruptive business trends coming down the pike Far from slowing down, change and transformation in business seems to come only at a more and more furious rate. The last ten years alone have seen the introduction of groundbreaking new trends that pose new opportunities and challenges for leaders in all industries. In Business Trends in Practice: The 25+ Trends That Are Redefining Organizations, best-selling business author and strategist Bernard Marr breaks down the social and technological forces underlying these rapidly advancing changes and the impact of those changes on key industries. * Critical consumer trends just emerging today--or poised to emerge tomorrow--are discussed, as are strategies for rethinking your organisation's product and service delivery. The book also explores: * Crucial business operations trends that are changing the way companies conduct themselves in the 21st century * The practical insights and takeaways you can glean from technological and social innovation when you cut through the hype * Disruptive new technologies, including AI, robotic and business process automation, remote work, as well as social and environmental sustainability trends Business Trends in Practice: The 25+ Trends That Are Redefining Organizations is a must-read resource for executives, business leaders and managers, and business development and innovation leads trying to get - and stay - on top of changes and disruptions that are right around the corner.

Leseprobe

Table of Contents

COVER

TITLE PAGE

COPYRIGHT

DEDICATION

PART I: INTRODUCTION: RIDING THE WAVE OF TRANSFORMATION

CHAPTER 1: THE FIVE GLOBAL SHIFTS THAT WILL SHAPE THE ORGANIZATIONS OF THE FUTURE

Trend 1: Our Changing Relationship with Our Planet

Trend 2: Shifts in Economic and Political Power

Trend 3: Growing Divergence and Polarization

Trend 4: Shifting Demographics

Trend 5: Social, Cultural, and Workplace Shifts

Notes

CHAPTER 2: THE TEN TECH MEGA-TRENDS EVERY BUSINESS LEADER SHOULD KNOW ABOUT

No Ordinary Industrial Revolution

Trend 1: Ubiquitous Computing

Trend 2: Connected and Smart Everything

Trend 3: The Datafication of Our World

Trend 4: Artificial Intelligence

Trend 5: Extended Reality

Trend 6: Digital Trust

Trend 7: 3D Printing

Trend 8: Gene Editing and Synthetic Biology

Trend 9: Nanotechnology and Materials Science

Trend 10: New Energy Solutions

Notes

PART II: RETHINKING KEY SECTORS

CHAPTER 3: HOW WE GENERATE ENERGY

Trend 1: The Decarbonization of Energy

Trend 2: The Decentralization of Energy

Trend 3: The Digitization of Energy

Notes

CHAPTER 4: HOW WE STAY HEALTHY

Trend 1: Preventative Medicine

Trend 2: Democratized Healthcare

Trend 3: Personalized, Precision Healthcare

Trend 4: Digitized Healthcare

Trend 5: Improving the Human Body

Trend 6: Robots and Nanobots

Trend 7: The Datafication of Medicine

Notes

CHAPTER 5: HOW WE LEARN

Shift 1: Rethinking What We Teach

Shift 2: Rethinking How We Teach

Notes

CHAPTER 6: HOW WE FEED OURSELVES

Innovation 1: Reimagining Our Current Farming and Agriculture Methods

Innovation 2: Finding New Ways to Create Food (Especially Meat) in the Future

Notes

CHAPTER 7: HOW WE MAKE AND BUILD THINGS

Seven Major Trends in Manufacturing

Four Major Trends in Buildings and Construction

Notes

CHAPTER 8: HOW WE MOVE PEOPLE AND GOODS

Trend 1: Electrification

Trend 2: Autonomous Vehicles

Trend 3: The Servitization of Mobility

Notes

CHAPTER 9: HOW WE LOOK AFTER OUR MONEY

Shift 1: The Future of Money May Be Very Different Than Today

Shift 2: The Increasing Digitization of Money and Financial Services

Shift 3: The Rise of Finance Apps and Nontraditional Providers

Shift 4: Consumer Expectations for more Personalized, Intelligent Services

Notes

PART III: RETHINKING WHAT BUSINESSES OFFER

CHAPTER 10: CHANNEL DIGITIZATION AND EXPANSION

The App (and Super App) Revolution

Creating a Seamless Omnichannel Experience

Creating New Digital-Only Products

Notes

CHAPTER 11: COGNIFYING PRODUCTS AND SERVICES

Smarter Products

Smarter Services

Merging Smart Products and Services

Notes

CHAPTER 12: RIGHT TIME, RIGHT PLACE, RIGHT FOR YOU

The Speed of Now

Inspiring Examples of Personalized Services

Personalization in Products

Notes

CHAPTER 13: SUBSCRIPTION AND SERVITIZATION

Streaming/Content Services

Technology as a Service

Subscription Boxes

Products with an Add-on Subscripton

Notes

CHAPTER 14: CUTTING OUT THE MIDDLEMEN

Delving into the Direct-to-Consumer Trend

DTC Products in Action

The Blockchain Threat to Middlemen Service Providers

The Contradiction That Is Reintermediation

Notes

CHAPTER 15: FROM B2C TO “ALL TO ALL”

The Platform Business Model

The Sharing Economy Is Here to Stay

Platforms Versus Blockchain

Tapping into the Crowd

Notes

CHAPTER 16: MORE IMMERSIVE EXPERIENCES

Introducing the Experience Economy

Inspiring Examples of Tangible and Digital Experiences

In the Future, XR Could Create Even More Immersive Experiences

Notes

CHAPTER 17: CONSCIOUS CONSUMPTION

The Rise of Conscious Consumption

Conscious Food Consumption

Eco-Friendly Examples from Other Industries

Notes

PART IV: RETHINKING HOW BUSINESSES ARE RUN

CHAPTER 18: SUSTAINABLE AND RESILIENT OPERATIONS

Rethinking Resilience for the Fourth Industrial Revolution

Becoming a More Sustainable Business

Sustainable Operations in Practice

Notes

CHAPTER 19: FINDING THE BALANCE BETWEEN HUMANS AND INTELLIGENT COBOTS

The Amazing Capabilities of AIs and Intelligent Robots

Examples of Automation in Practice

The Future of Work: What Will Happen to All the Human Workers?

Reskilling Employees for the Fourth Industrial Revolution

Notes

CHAPTER 20: FINDING AND KEEPING TALENT

Finding and Attracting Talent in the Fourth Industrial Revolution

Improving the Employee Experience

Notes

CHAPTER 21: ORGANIZING TO WIN

From Hierarchical to Flatter, More Agile Organizational Structures

Managing Performance in Flatter Organizations

The New Hybrid Work Environment

Notes

CHAPTER 22: AUTHENTICITY

Anatomy of an Authentic Business

Authentic Leadership

Notes

CHAPTER 23: PURPOSEFUL BUSINESS

Why Purpose Matters

Finding (And Living) Your Purpose

Compelling Examples of Purposeful Businesses

Notes

CHAPTER 24: CO-OPETITION AND INTEGRATION

Supply chain integration

Data Integration

Co-Opetition: Co-Operating with Competitors

Notes

CHAPTER 25: NEW FORMS OF FUNDING

Tapping into the Crowd with Crowdfunding

Skipping the IPO Process: Initial Coin Offerings (ICOS)

The Tokenization of Assets

Creating a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC)

Notes

PART V: WHERE TO GO FROM HERE

CHAPTER 26: FINAL WORDS

This Isn't a Pick-and-Mix Buffet

Speed and Adaptability Are Key

Remember the Human Side

Let's Invest in a Future We Want to Live in

Share Your Thoughts with Me

Notes

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

INDEX

End User License Agreement

Guide

Cover

Table of Contents

Title Page

Copyright

Dedication

Begin Reading

Acknowledgments

About the Author

Index

End User License Agreement

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BUSINESS TRENDS IN PRACTICE

THE 25+ TRENDS THAT ARE REDEFINING ORGANIZATIONS

BERNARD MARR

This edition first published 2022© 2022 by Bernard Marr

Registered officeJohn Wiley & Sons Ltd, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex, PO19 8SQ, United Kingdom

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Names: Marr, Bernard, author.

Title: Business trends in practice : the 25+ trends that are redefining organizations / Bernard Marr.

Description: [Hoboken, NJ] : Wiley, 2022. | Includes index.

Identifiers: LCCN 2021033030 (print) | LCCN 2021033031 (ebook) | ISBN 9781119795575 (cloth) | ISBN 9781119795599 (adobe pdf) | ISBN 9781119795582 (epub)

Subjects: LCSH: Business forecasting. | Business—21st century.

Classification: LCC HD30.27 .M353 2022 (print) | LCC HD30.27 (ebook) | DDC 658.4/0355—dc23

LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2021033030

LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2021033031

Cover Design: Wiley

Cover Image: © rvika/Getty Images

To my wife, Claire; my children, Sophia, James, and Oliver;And everyone who will be inspired by these trends to make the world a better place

PART IINTRODUCTION: RIDING THE WAVE OF TRANSFORMATION

Our world is rapidly changing and the pace of change has been accelerating. Business leaders tell me all the time how challenging it is to keep up with the pace and extent of change, and I couldn't agree more. I'm frequently staggered by the pace of change, particularly (although not exclusively) in technology advancements – and I say that as someone whose job title is futurist!

That, in a nutshell, is what sparked the idea for this book. I wanted to provide business leaders with an accessible overview of the key trends that are transforming the way we do business. In my advisory work with companies and government organizations, I noticed that the same transformative forces seem to be coming up again and again, irrespective of the size of the organization or the industry in which they operate. This book pulls those insights together in one place. My goal is to give business leaders a chance to learn from other industries and build a business that is more successful, more resilient, and better equipped for the changes coming our way. In short, this book is designed to help you ride the wave of transformation.

I believe the role of any futurist is to be practical. So, far from describing some sort of futuristic business utopia, I cut through the hype and distill each of the business trends into practical insights – insights that business leaders can translate into action.

To help with this, I include plenty of real-world examples to show how other organizations are adapting and responding to change. There are use cases from all kinds of businesses, big and small, from startup eco toilet tissue makers to traditional manufacturers to tech giants, and a whole lot in between. I'm keen to demonstrate that the trends in this book apply to all organizations, regardless of size and industry.

Here's what else to expect from this book:

In

Part I

, we'll start by exploring the forces – both societal and technological – that are driving the massive changes taking place.

Then, in

Part II

, we'll look at the impact of these trends on key industries to illustrate just how transformative their collective impact is. (I must stress that I had to stick to just the most important industries here. But if your industry isn't featured, please don't skip this part – many of the insights will no doubt be relevant to your own industry.)

Part III

focuses on the key consumer trends that are emerging today – trends that will likely prompt a rethink of your products and services, and how to deliver them.

Building on the consumer trends,

Part IV

is all about key trends that impact how businesses operate internally. In other words, as well as rethinking your products and services, you'll also have to rethink how your business is run.

And in the final chapter, I'll pull these (often interlinked, sometimes disparate, even contradictory) trends together into some broader key lessons and takeaways. These are the things I want to leave you with as you look to the future.

As well as helping business leaders ride the wave of transformation, there is also a loftier goal at the heart of this book. As you'll see in the next chapter, it's not just businesses that are being impacted by these transformational forces; society as a whole is facing enormous changes and challenges. By building better businesses, we can collectively tackle the issues facing our world and create the future we want to live in. If this book plays a small role in that very big task, I'll be happy.

CHAPTER 1THE FIVE GLOBAL SHIFTS THAT WILL SHAPE THE ORGANIZATIONS OF THE FUTURE

This is a book about business trends. But no business operates in a vacuum. Organizations are constantly shaped by the world around them. And that's why we start our journey here, with some of the biggest trends emerging in politics, economics, and society.

In this chapter, I outline five major global shifts that business leaders must take into consideration as they plan for the future. This is not just a “nice to know” chapter; these trends have very real business implications (you'll find some practical lessons at the end of the chapter). Each global shift outlined in this chapter indicates where future business opportunities may lie, meaning the most successful organizations of the future will be those that address and move with these shifts. The flip side, of course, is that these global shifts also pose risks for businesses, particularly the risk of being left behind. As a result, many businesses will end up sidelined, overtaken by their more forward-thinking competitors.

What struck me as I was writing this chapter is that many of these trends are contrasting. For example, we're seeing a trend toward cultural convergence at the same time as growing divergence, which, on the surface, is a bit of a head-scratcher. Perhaps one feeds into the other. Or maybe it's simply a sign of the confusing, uncertain world we live in these days. One thing is sure: businesses will have to contend with some trends that are seemingly pulling in different directions. Adapting to this new age of uncertainty may mean rethinking what your business offers and how it is run (more on this in Parts III and IV of this book). For now, let's immerse ourselves in five of the biggest global shifts that are emerging, starting with our relationship with our planet.

Trend 1: Our Changing Relationship with Our Planet

To put it mildly, we've not had the best relationship with our planet. We've chopped down forests, burnt carbon, dug mines, polluted waterways – all in the name of growing prosperity. For Western countries at least, this has paid off. Using our natural resources has led to greater prosperity. But it has also led to climate change, the collapse of ecosystems and loss of biodiversity, chemical and plastic pollution, and the decline of our natural resources (particularly water). As a result, our planet is under immense pressure and showing the strain through abnormal weather patterns and natural disasters, which, in turn, create pressures around crop production, food security, migration, and more.

Some food for thought on the emerging climate crisis:

Climate change is happening so quickly, many species are struggling to adapt. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says that a 1.5°C average rise in global average surface temperature may put up to 30 percent of species at risk of extinction. Push that up to 2°C and most ecosystems will struggle.

1

For context, the temperature has already increased by 0.9°C since 1906 (the figure is even higher in polar regions).

2

By the end of this century, 150–200 million people could be forced to migrate from land that will be underwater.

3

Some of the biggest sectors in terms of greenhouse gas emissions include agriculture and forestry (responsible for 18.4 percent of global emissions), energy use in industry (24.2 percent), energy use in buildings (17.5 percent), and transportation (16.2 percent).

4

Our precious resources are under enormous pressure. Fresh water makes up just 2.5 percent of the world's total volume of water (and half of that is ice). So it's perhaps no wonder that 1.8 billion people are already living with water scarcity. Even more worryingly, 5.2 billion people are expected to face water stress by 2025.

5

Competition for land (particularly land for agriculture) is also growing, and many countries such as China and Saudi Arabia are already pursuing land in Africa. Global competition for finite resources, including land and water, is only going to increase as the population grows.

There may also be a global fight for rare earths, some of the most important minerals and metals found in the ground, which are used in everything from lithium-ion batteries to electric cars. The US is 80 percent reliant on China (the world's biggest rare earths producer) for rare earth imports, and this could lead to further strains on political relationships in future.

6

To keep pace with the growing population (I talk more about global demographics later in the chapter), an often-quoted statistic is that we'll have to double crop and animal production by 2050. More conservative estimates suggest that, as food production has already increased in recent years, we may only need to increase production by between 26 percent and 68 percent by 2050.

7

But that's still a significant increase to accommodate on an already struggling planet.

Plastic pollution is another pressing concern. Single-use plastics account for 40 percent of the plastic produced every year, meaning something that may be used for mere minutes ends up hanging around for hundreds of years. Every year, around 8 million tons of plastic waste finds its way into the oceans (the equivalent of five garbage bags of trash being placed on every foot of coastline around the world), and with plastic production expected to double by 2050, the problem is set to get a lot worse.

8

If our relationship with our planet was a romantic one, it would be labeled “toxic.” Earth's best friends would probably be telling her she could do better. And we must do better. We need to build a more balanced, sustainable relationship with our planet.

Yet the emerging climate disaster is probably the biggest challenge we've ever faced. So how do we overcome something of this magnitude? In his book How to Avoid a Climate Disaster, Bill Gates says that we're adding 51 billion tons of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere every year. To stop global warming and avoid the worst impacts of climate change, Gates says we need to get that number down to zero by 2050. Let me say that again: zero.

The problem, of course, is that most zero-carbon energy solutions cost more than their fossil fuel counterparts. (Gates refers to the price difference as “Green Premiums.”) He says that using Green Premiums as a decision-making tool can help us decide which zero-carbon solutions should be deployed now, which nongreen goods should be priced higher, and where we need to invest in new innovations because the current zero-carbon alternatives aren't cheap enough. (Some of the innovations Gates promotes include nuclear fusion, sea-based carbon removal, and direct air capture of carbon.)

Gates's book is a fascinating read and I urge everyone to read it. But while he has brilliant and practical ideas, we can't ignore the fact that solving the climate crisis is a global responsibility, requiring countries to work together and take collective action. The fact that global economic and political power structures are also undergoing huge changes will only make the job harder. This leads us to the next topic.

Trend 2: Shifts in Economic and Political Power

The economic and political world order is changing and, by 2050, the list of the most economically and politically powerful countries in the world will look very different to today.

Take China as an example. Due to the impact of the coronavirus crisis, China's economy is now predicted to overtake the United States by 2028, five years earlier than previously thought.9 China is one of the so-called E7 emerging countries – alongside India, Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Indonesia, and Turkey – countries whose economies are expected to exceed those of the G7 advanced economies.

Let's look at a few stats that highlight the startling shifts in power that are coming our way:10

By 2050, the EU27's share of global GDP will be just 9 percent, while China's is expected to be 20 percent.

BY 2050, India will rank second in the global GDP rankings, putting it behind China and ahead of the US. Indonesia will rank fourth. The UK could be down to 10th place.

E7 economies could grow around twice as fast as the G7. In fact, the combined economic power of the E7 economies could be double that of the G7 by 2040 – that's from being the same size as the G7 in 2015 and half the size in 1995.

And then there are the “next 11” emerging economies, including Bangladesh, Egypt, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Vietnam. These economies are projected to overtake the EU27 in global power as early as 2030.11

Bottom line, the West has been on the rise for centuries, but that is about to change. The E7 and next 11 economies will increasingly hold more sway in the global economy and, in turn, in world politics. Earlier in this chapter, I mentioned that China is building close links with African nations for access to land and rare resources, and this is just one example of China extending its global influence.

This power shift will no doubt bring new tensions, particularly as the world's most precious resources become scarcer. We may also see a new Cold War emerge around technology. China has said it wants to be a world leader in artificial intelligence by 2030, and has introduced measures to control the export of AI technologies by Chinese companies.12 President Trump's ban on Huawei's products and telecoms equipment gives us another glimpse of how countries may seek to restrict the technological capabilities of other countries. In other words, rather than bringing the world closer together, technology may be yet another thing that exacerbates global tensions and contributes to growing divergence.

Trend 3: Growing Divergence and Polarization

After decades of globalization has brought countries closer together, there are signs that countries (and the alliances and systems they participate in) are beginning to decouple. There have been some notable examples of political fragmentation and growing divergence in recent years. We've seen it in the US, when President Trump withdrew from the Paris Agreement on climate mitigation, announced plans to withdraw America from the World Health Organization, and even spoke about withdrawing from NATO. And we've seen it in the UK, with the country leaving the European Union. In the UK, Brexit really emphasized the way large sections of society have shifted toward extreme sides of arguments, with little or no ability to see the other side's perspective. People fell out with friends, neighbors, and family members because of their political opinions, and American voters experienced the same thing during the 2020 election. Groups are becoming more divided along ideological lines, and that goes for groups of voters, and groups within society (think of the often vitriolic debates around feminism or trans rights). A 2019 survey by the Pew Research Center found that partisan division and animosity have deepened since 2016; 63 percent of Republicans said Democrats were “more unpatriotic” than other Americans, and 55 percent said they were more immoral. Meanwhile, 75 percent of Democrats said Republicans were more close-minded than other Americans, and 47 percent said they were more immoral.13

In short, the world feels more polarized than ever. I find this both crazy and disturbing. When did society become so polarized that you're either a staunch Democrat or Republican (or a Brexiter or Remainer, or any other position, political or otherwise), with nothing in between? And when did the other side become immoral and less patriotic? Losing all concept of the other side's perspective is, to me, a danger to our democracy and society. Yet that's exactly what's happening.

When information and analytics company IHS Markit set out its prediction of how the world would look in 2025, it said the “fragmented world” scenario is the most likely. In this scenario, the US, China, the EU, and other key players retreat from globalization and turn their focus inwards to concentrate on domestic challenges.14 It's only a prediction, of course, but the COVID-19 crisis and the resulting economic fallout is likely to exacerbate the desire to turn inwards and focus on domestic problems.

There are a number of reasons why divergence and polarization have grown. There's no global enemy or external threat keeping disparate countries united. And, of course, we can't ignore the impact of social media ghettoes that show people only what they want to see. Thanks to social media algorithms, we simply don't all see the same news. Instead, we're served a stream of content that's personalized to our habits, interests, and beliefs. This is known as the “filter bubble.” Trapped in our bubbles – because this is something we're all susceptible to – we may begin to believe the world is exactly as we see it. Fake news spreads quickly in this environment, because the people in your filter bubble share the same views as you, and it's much easier to believe a fake news story when people you follow are sharing and talking about it. Meanwhile, real problems and issues – and the need to work together to solve society's problems – get lost in the noise.

Technology, then, may play a key role in this growing divergence and polarization. I've already raised the prospect of a technology “Cold War,” and we see hints of this with China restricting companies from exporting technology services, and preventing citizens from accessing certain websites. China is the best-known example of a country with its own isolated internet, and this is something we may see more of in the future. This splintering of the internet even has a name: the “splinternet.” Indeed, Russia has already confirmed that it has created a system that would allow the country to completely decouple from the rest of the world's internet and operate its own independent internet.15

Another factor that may be fueling polarization and divergence is racial and ethnic diversity. While diversity is a long-term benefit for society, in the short term it can trigger social and political conflict and a breakdown in trust. Which brings us to the next subject.

Trend 4: Shifting Demographics

The global population in 2050, or even 2030, will look very different from today. Depending on where you are in the world, the population is growing and aging. We're seeing greater urbanization and more megacities. And, as I've previously mentioned, climate change may mean hundreds of millions of people are displaced and forced to migrate to other areas.

Let's get a quick overview of how the population is changing:

According to a UN forecast, the world's population was expected to increase by 2 billion in the next 30 years, from 7.7 billion in 2020 to 9.7 billion in 2050.

16

However, recent estimates suggest the population may peak sooner than that, at 9.7 billion in 2064, and then decline to 8.8 billion by the end of the century.

17

In other words, it looks as though population growth is slowing, not least because more and more women can now choose to have fewer children.

While the total global population is still growing, some countries are witnessing population decline due to factors such as migration and low birthrates. For example, Russia's population is expected to shrink by 18 million between 2006 and 2030, and Japan's population is projected to decrease by 11 million.

18

What's more, the world's population is growing older. As an example, in 1950, life expectancy in China was 40 years. By 2050, it will be 80 years.

19

This pattern is replicated across the world. In 2006, there were almost 500 million people in the world aged 65 and older. By 2030, that is projected to increase to 1 billion people, or 1 in 8 of the world's inhabitants.

20

This is good news because it shows that we have improved healthcare and living standards to allow people to live longer, but it does create societal and economic pressures.

People are on the move, too. The number of people living in urban areas is rising rapidly. The world's urban population grew from 751 million in 1950 to 4.2 billion in 2018. Currently, 55 percent of the global population lives in urban areas, and this will increase to 68 percent by 2050. Asia is home to 54 percent of the world's urban population.

21

The number of megacities (classified by the UN as cities with 10 million or more inhabitants) is also on the rise. By 2030, there will be 43 megacities, up from 33 in 2018.

22

The cities that we live in will increasingly become “smart” and connected. There will be more than 25 global smart cities in 2025 (more than 50 percent of which will be in Europe and North America).

23

Meanwhile, the shift to more urban living will drive huge economic growth in developing economies. The emerging megacities in developing economies are expected to outperform developed megacities in terms of share of the world's GDP by 2025.

24

This, in turn, will lead to a growth in the consuming classes. By 2030, 66 percent of the world's middle classes will be living in Asia.

25

Each of these factors creates opportunities and challenges. Longer lives, for example, must be planned for. Age-related chronic diseases will rise. The costs of healthcare and social insurance will rise. Patterns of work and retirement will shift. And societal aging as a whole may affect economic growth as the ratio of workers to retirees shifts. (Europe currently has four people of working age for every older person, but that will shrink to two workers per older person by 2050.)26

In another example, the opportunities around the growing urban populations and middle classes are huge. But we must also ensure cities develop in a sustainable way and that we address global inequality. Currently, the world's richest 1 percent own 44 percent of the world's wealth, which hardly seems fair.27 According to the UN, inequality affects more than 70 percent of the global population and is on the rise across the world, including in fast-growing economies like China.28 This is just another example of global trends moving in opposite directions – more people are being lifted out of poverty and the middle class is growing, yet the gap between the very rich and the poor is also growing.

This rising inequality must be tackled at national and international levels. We may even need to rethink our economic and democratic systems and reshape systems that are no longer fit for purpose. If we don't tackle inequality, the problems of division, divergence, and polarization will be exacerbated, and economic and social development will be restricted.

Finally, let's turn our attention to the social and cultural shifts that are taking place.

Trend 5: Social, Cultural, and Workplace Shifts

I find it fascinating that, while the world seems more polarized than ever, we're also seeing greater convergence between cultures. Think of Hollywood films influencing other cultures, or the global appeal of South Korean boyband BTS, or the way a Chinese teenager's video on TikTok can go viral in the US. Globally, 65 percent of people agree that we have more things in common than things that make us different.29 Yet this is also an age of diversity and individuality; research suggests that individualism is a global phenomenon, not just a Western trend.30 Once again, we see how global trends can contrast with each other.

Let's take a brief look at how society, culture, and the workplace are changing:

Marriage is on the decline, and single-person households are the fastest-growing household profile in the period to 2030.

31

The gender gap remains a frustratingly stubborn problem. Women still remain less likely to participate in the labor market than men, are more likely to be unemployed than men, are overrepresented in vulnerable employment, are constrained from achieving the highest leadership positions, and are paid less than men.

32

On top of that, it looks as though the socioeconomic impacts of the COVID-19 crisis have disproportionately affected women.

33

Closing the gender gap is important, not just for women but for the benefit of society as a whole. There is a strong positive correlation between countries that are successfully closing the gender gap and their economic performance, and narrowing the gender gap means the global income per person will increase by at least 20 percent by 2030.

34

The number of Gen Z (those born after 1997) and millennials (Gen Y, born between 1981 and 1996) in the workplace is on the rise and baby boomers are retiring. As the workforce demographic changes, so too do the needs and expectations of workers. To baby boomers, putting in long hours was often seen as essential for success, but those entering the workplace now prioritize flexibility and work–life balance. In this age of personalization and individualism, Gen Z are also looking for an employee experience that is tailored to them. They expect training and mentoring, as well as challenging, meaningful work.

35

They increasingly expect to identify with their employer's brand identity; as an example, 65 percent of people want to work for an organization “with a powerful social conscience.”

36

How we work is changing, too. One in five global employees now work remotely at least some of the time,

37

and the coronavirus pandemic will accelerate this “work from anywhere” culture. (Indeed, major companies like Twitter said early in the pandemic that workers wouldn't have to return to working in the office if they didn't want to.) The pandemic proved that remote working is feasible and beneficial across many industries, and as such we'll see the global job market accelerate – meaning tech workers no longer have to move to Palo Alto and so on.

This work-from-anywhere culture will likely fuel more “free agents” entering the workforce and the continued rise of the gig economy. The hierarchical organizational structures of the past may dwindle in favor of flatter, team- and project-based structures, where people can move between and within organizations depending on where their skills are needed at any one time.

Diversity is also becoming more important as the global job market accelerates, and as more Gen Z-ers (who are more racially and ethnically diverse than previous generations)

38

enter the workplace. In a survey by Deloitte, two-thirds of business leaders said diversity was important or very important to their business.

39

This includes diversity of thinking, as well as demographic diversity; in fact, diversity of thinking may increase innovation by 20 percent and reduce business risks by 30 percent.

40

The high-performing teams of the future, then, will be both demographically and cognitively diverse. Furthermore, organizations with inclusive cultures – where people feel valued, respected, and that they belong – are eight times more likely to achieve better business outcomes and twice as likely to meet or exceed financial targets.

41

There's also an increasing emphasis and less stigma around mental health and well-being – another trend that has been accelerated by the pandemic. Going forward, there will be increasing pressure on employers to make sure their people have the right work–life balance and that employees have access to mental health support through third-party providers.

PRACTICAL LESSONS

All of these global shifts indicate where the biggest opportunities and risks lie for future success. So how should businesses be embracing or planning for these shifts? Here are a few key takeaways:

The climate crisis. According to Ipsos, globally 73 percent of people agree we're on course for a climate disaster.

42

With a global majority agreeing that the world is facing a huge crisis, customers will increasingly gravitate toward more sustainable options. Businesses will have to do everything they can to maximize their green credentials and communicate that to customers.

Economic shifts. As the E7 and next 11 economies grow, it will no doubt become more expensive for businesses to outsource their production and services to these countries. On the flip side, these economies will become much more attractive markets for products and services.

Growing divergence. If the trend toward divergence and delinking continues, companies may potentially find themselves restricted from certain markets. A reliance on any one market is a risky strategy.

Demographic shifts. For businesses, the growing consuming classes and greater urbanization around the world present huge possibilities, but participating in these new markets will mean adapting to different cultural and political environments.

Social, cultural, and workplace shifts. Businesses must assess whether they are offering Gen Z, women, and global workers an attractive work environment, one in which people have flexibility and work–life balance, where they can be individuals and connect meaningfully with the brand.

Now that we've got a broader view of what's happening in the world, let's dig into some specific technology trends that are also impacting our world and how we live in it.

Notes

1

. Impacts of 1.5°C global warming on natural and human systems; IPCC;

https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-3/

2

. Effects of global warming; National Geographic;

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/global-warming-effects

3

. Climate change and resource scarcity; PwC;

https://www.pwc.co.uk/issues/megatrends/climate-change-and-resource-scarcity.html

4

. Emissions by sector; Our World in Data;

https://ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-sector

5

. Beyond the Noise: The Megatrends of Tomorrow's World; Deloitte;

https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/nl/Documents/public-sector/deloitte-nl-ps-megatrends-2ndedition.pdf

6

. Why Rare Earths May Leave Europe and U.S. Vulnerable; Bloomberg;

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-16/why-rare-earths-are-achilles-heal-for-europe-u-s-quicktake

7

. Double food production by 2050? Not so fast; Futurity;

https://www.futurity.org/food-production-2050-1368582-2/

8

. The world's plastic pollution crisis explained; National Geographic;

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/plastic-pollution?cmpid=int_org=ngp::int_mc=website::int_src=ngp::int_cmp=amp::int_add=amp_readtherest

9

. Chinese economy to overtake US “by 2028” due to Covid; BBC News;

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55454146

10

. The world in 2050; PwC;

https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/research-insights/economy/the-world-in-2050.html

11

. Economic power shifts; European Commission;

https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/foresight/topic/expanding-influence-east-south/power-shifts_en#:~:text=The%20%E2%80%9CNext%20Eleven%E2%80%9D%20(Bangladesh,in%20global%20power%20by%202030

.

12

. Why is China Introducing New Export Controls?; China Briefing;

https://www.china-briefing.com/news/chinas-new-export-control-law-restrictions-imposed-23-items-technology/

13

. Partisan Antipathy: More Intense, More personal; Pew Research Center;

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2019/10/10/partisan-antipathy-more-intense-more-personal/?utm:source=link_newsv9&utm:campaign=item:268982&utm:medium=copy

14

. Geopolitics in a post-pandemic world: A fragmented world; IHS Markit;

https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/geopolitics-in-a-postpandemic-world-a-fragmented-world.html

15

. Russia “successfully tests” its unplugged internet; BBC News;

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-50902496

16

. Growing at a slower pace, world population is expected to reach 9.7 billion in 2050 and could peak at nearly 11 billion around 2100; United Nations;

https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/world-population-prospects-2019.html#:~:text=The%20world's%20population%20is%20expected,United%20Nations%20report%20launched%20today

17

. World population in 2100 could be 2 billion below UN forecasts, study suggests; Guardian;

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/15/world-population-in-2100-could-be-2-billion-below-un-forecasts-study-suggests

18

. Why Population Aging Matters; National Institute on Aging;

https://www.nia.nih.gov/sites/default/files/2017-06/WPAM.pdf

19

. 10 Mega Trends that are (re)shaping our world; Ipsos;

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/10-Mega-Trends-That-are-Reshaping-The-World.pdf

20

. Why Population Aging Matters; National Institute on Aging;

https://www.nia.nih.gov/sites/default/files/2017-06/WPAM.pdf

21

. 2018 Revision of World Urbanization Prospects; United Nations;

https://www.un.org/development/desa/publications/2018-revision-of-world-urbanization-prospects.html

22

. Ibid.

23

. World's Top Global Mega Trends to 2025 and Implications to Business, Society and Cultures; Frost & Sullivan;

https://www.thegeniusworks.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Megatrends-2025-Frost-and-Sullivan.pdf

24

. Emerging megacities to outperform developed megacities by 2025; GlobalData;

https://www.globaldata.com/emerging-megacities-to-outperform-developed-megacities-by-2025-says-globaldata/

25

. 10 Mega Trends that are (re)shaping our world; Ipsos;

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/10-Mega-Trends-That-are-Reshaping-The-World.pdf

26

. Why Population Aging Matters; National Institute on Aging;

https://www.nia.nih.gov/sites/default/files/2017-06/WPAM.pdf

27

. Global Wealth Report; Credit Suisse;

https://www.credit-suisse.com/about-us/en/reports-research/global-wealth-report.html

28

. Rising inequality affecting more than two-thirds of the globe, but it's not inevitable; UN News;

https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/01/1055681

29

. 10 Mega Trends that are (re)shaping our world; Ipsos;

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/10-Mega-Trends-That-are-Reshaping-The-World.pdf

30

. Individualistic Practices and Values Increasing Around the World; Association for Psychological Science;

https://www.psychologicalscience.org/news/releases/individualistic-practices-and-values-increasing-around-the-world.html

31

. 10 Mega Trends that are (re)shaping our world; Ipsos;

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/10-Mega-Trends-That-are-Reshaping-The-World.pdf

32

. Facts and Figures: Economic Empowerment; UN Women;

https://www.unwomen.org/en/what-we-do/economic-empowerment/facts-and-figures

33

. Closing the Gender Gap Accelerators; World Economic Forum;

https://www.weforum.org/projects/closing-the-gender-gap-accelerators

34

. Beyond the Noise: The Megatrends of Tomorrow's World; Deloitte;

https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/nl/Documents/public-sector/deloitte-nl-ps-megatrends-2ndedition.pdf

35

. Gen Z Rising; Accenture;

https://www.accenture.com/_acnmedia/pdf-50/accenture-strategy-workforce-gen-z-rising-pov.pdf

36

. 10 Mega Trends that are (re)shaping our world; Ipsos;

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/10-Mega-Trends-That-are-Reshaping-The-World.pdf

37

. Ibid.

38

. Early Benchmarks Show Post-Millennials on Track to Be Most Diverse, Best Educated Generation Yet; Pew Research Center;

https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2018/11/15/early-benchmarks-show-post-millennials-on-track-to-be-most-diverse-best-educated-generation-yet/

39

. The diversity and inclusion revolution; Deloitte;

https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/insights/us/articles/4209_Diversity-and-inclusion-revolution/DI_Diversity-and-inclusion-revolution.pdf

40

. Ibid.

41

. Ibid.

42

. 10 Mega Trends that are (re)shaping our world; Ipsos;

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/10-Mega-Trends-That-are-Reshaping-The-World.pdf

CHAPTER 2THE TEN TECH MEGA-TRENDS EVERY BUSINESS LEADER SHOULD KNOW ABOUT

We are now entering the fourth industrial revolution. As with each industrial revolution before it – steam and waterpower, electricity, and computerization – this revolution represents a huge transformational shift that will forever alter how we do business, and even how we go about our everyday lives. Driven by data, artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things (IoT, the plethora of everyday devices that are now connected to the internet), the fourth industrial revolution is essentially turning the world around us into one huge information system, which is why I often refer to it as “the intelligence revolution.”

No Ordinary Industrial Revolution

What makes this fourth industrial revolution different from the previous three is the sheer range of new technologies involved. Where each of the previous industrial revolutions were driven by one major technological advancement, the fourth industrial revolution is driven by numerous tech trends, including the increasing datafication of our world, huge leaps in artificial intelligence, the rise of cyber-physical systems (computer systems that control physical processes), and the vast spread of the Internet of Things, to name just a few examples. Each of these advancements on their own would be transformative; together, they can take us beyond anything we could imagine.

What's interesting about the fourth industrial revolution is that the unprecedented digital transformation that we've seen in recent years is being accelerated by the interaction between all these different technologies. The enormous leaps in AI, for example, have been made possible by the explosion of data, which in turn is being accelerated by the plethora of smart devices constantly generating data. These trends are influencing each other, and will continue to do so. This means, rather than the big step changes of previous industrial revolutions, this latest revolution may usher in a period of exponential growth that just carries on and on. In other words, there may not be a fifth industrial revolution; we may instead experience a continual acceleration of the fourth industrial revolution.

“Exponential growth” is a phrase you probably hear a lot, but let's take a moment to consider what it means in real terms. When I talk about the amount of data in our world growing exponentially, and the exponential growth in computing power, I'm talking about it doubling every few years – two years in the case of computing power (as per Moore's Law, which I'll talk about later), and roughly every four years for the amount of data being stored.1

Imagine if the speed of cars developed at such a pace. Initially, the progress would seem fairly sensible, starting with 50mph then doubling two years later to 100mph. But after eight years our cars would be traveling faster than the speed of sound (767 mph). Within 50 years, we'd be driving faster than the speed of light (670 million mph). That's fast enough to take a round-trip from Earth to the Moon and back in about 2.5 seconds. Clearly, such pace of change isn't happening in the automotive industry, or other industries for that matter. And that's what makes the pace of digital change so startling. It's something we've never seen before, and it's almost impossible to imagine this pace continuing. But that's precisely what may happen. There's no limit to what these technologies can achieve.

Crucially, these tech trends, which are all mingling and mixing together, will disrupt every industry, every organization (big and small), and even many aspects of society. This is why business leaders need to understand these trends and plan for their potential impact. In this chapter, I outline 10 technology mega-trends that will separate the successful businesses of the future from those that get left behind. Each of these trends deserves a book in its own right (indeed, I've written entire books on many of these trends). So consider this a whistle-stop tour – something to get you thinking about the future of your organization, and specifically how your business might use these trends to drive success.

Trend 1: Ubiquitous Computing

Digital technology is more readily available and more powerful than ever before. Let's take a quick look how we got here, to the point where computers are all around us, and see what's in store for the future of computing.

Advances in computing power

As processing power has increased and the size of computer microchips has shrunk, most of us have become used to computers and devices getting smaller, lighter, cheaper, and more powerful. Indeed, the average smartphone today is more powerful than the supercomputers of 10 years ago.

Moore's Law states that the number of transistors on a microchip doubles every two years, thus doubling the speed and capability of computers every two years. This law has been in place for an astonishing 55 years. Now, however, we're reaching the limits of Moore's Law. After all, there's only so far you can take the shrinking of transistors and computer chips. But this doesn't mean the end of advances in computing power. It's just that, instead of relying on microchips getting smaller, it's likely future advances will come from innovations in software and algorithms (especially when the coding is done by AI), quantum computing, and even new forms of digital storage, such as DNA storage. In other words, even as Moore's Law falters, new advances on the horizon will continue to push the boundaries of computing power. These gains may be a bit more irregular and uneven than we've grown used to with Moore's Law, but they will come.

Quantum computing

Traditional computers may have grown exponentially more powerful over the last half-century, but they're basically still very fast versions of the humble electronic calculator. They're only capable of processing one “bit” of information at a time, in the form of a binary 1 or 0.

A quantum computer, on the other hand, uses “quantumbits” or “qubits” to process data, and these qubits seem to be capable of existing in two states simultaneously, meaning they have some likelihood of being a 1 and some likelihood of being a 0 at the same time. Using these quantum methods, it's possible to build machines capable of operating far more quickly than the fastest computers available today – potentially hundreds of millions of times faster. While quantum computers won't replace traditional computers (using a quantum computer to write your memoir, for example, would be like using a rocket launcher to crack a walnut), they could be used to complete new, previously impossible tasks that traditional computers aren't capable of. In other words, they're ideally suited to solving problems that humanity (and computers) hasn't yet been able to solve, such as the climate crisis. Some quantum computers exist today, but their use is mostly confined to academia and highly theoretical work. However, companies such as IBM, Google, and Microsoft are investing heavily in developing large-scale quantum computers that could see quantum computing deliver more widespread practical applications.

Storing and processing data

Computers have had to get faster and more powerful, in part to keep up with the vast amounts of data we're generating and processing. I talk more about the increasing datafication of our world later in the chapter, but it's clear that we're creating a vast amount of data on a daily basis. And the technology to store all that data is now significantly cheaper, more powerful, and easier to access. As a simple example, in the mid-1960s a terabyte of storage would have cost $3.5 billion; today I can buy a 1TB hard drive for less than $50.

Cloud computing (where data and applications are stored and processed on other people's computers) has played a critical role in the digital transformation we've seen in recent years, bringing huge advantages in terms of storing data cheaply, keeping data secure, and being able to process data more easily (most cloud providers offer AI and analytics services that can help you interrogate data at the click of a button).