Climate Adaptation Futures E-Book

• Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
• Kategorie: Wissenschaft und neue Technologien
• Sprache: Englisch

Seitenzahl: 874

Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2013

Beschreibung

Adaptation is the poor cousin of the climate change challenge - the glamour of international debate is around global mitigation agreements, while the bottom-up activities of adaptation, carried out in community halls and local government offices, are often overlooked. Yet, as international forums fail to deliver reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the world is realising that effective adaptation will be essential across all sectors to deal with the unavoidable impacts of climate change. The need to understand how to adapt effectively, and to develop appropriate adaptation options and actions, is becoming increasingly urgent.

This book reports the current state of knowledge on climate change adaptation, and seeks to expose and debate key issues in adaptation research and practice. It is framed around a number of critical areas of adaptation theory and practice, including:

• Advances in adaptation thinking,
• Enabling frameworks and policy for adaptation,
• Engaging and communicating with practitioners,
• Key challenges in adaptation and development,
• Management of natural systems and agriculture under climate change,
• Ensuring water security under a changing climate,
• Urban infrastructure and livelihoods, and
• The nexus between extremes, disaster management and adaptation.

It includes contributions from many of the leading thinkers and practitioners in adaptation today. The book is based on key contributions from the First International Conference on Climate Change Adaptation ‘Climate Adaptation Futures’, held on the Gold Coast, Australia, in June 2010. That three-day meeting of over 1000 researchers and practitioners in adaptation from 50 countries was the first of its kind.

Readership: The book is essential reading for a wide range of individuals involved in climate change adaptation, including:

• Researchers,
• Communication specialists,
• Decision-makers and policy makers (e.g. government staff, local council staff),
• On-ground adaptation practitioners (e.g. aid agencies, government workers, NGOs),
• Postgraduate and graduate students, and
• Consultants.

Leseprobe

Contents

List of Contributors

Preface

Section 1 Introduction

1 The past, present and future of adaptation: setting the context and naming the challenges

1.1 The purpose of this book

1.2 What are the five principal challenges for adaptation today?

1.3 First International Conference on Climate Change Adaptation, 2010

1.4 From conference to book

1.5 Now it’s 2012, what has changed? Reflections on the future

2 Uncertainty/limits to adaptation/adapting to +4°C: a transcript

2.1 Introduction

2.2 Thresholds and impacts

2.3 Adaptation

2.4 The bell curve

2.5 Observed change and attribution

2.6 Snow pack, fire and ice

2.7 Tipping points and ecosystems

2.8 Concluding with policy sequence

Section 2 Advances in adaptation thinking

3 Adaptation research: community, science or discipline?

3.1 Introduction

3.2 Why do we need a special effort in adaptation research?

3.3 How well is adaptation research addressing these challenges?

3.4 The way forward – an integrated research agenda

4 Food security under a changing climate: frontiers of science or adaptation frontiers?

4.1 Abstract

4.2 Introduction

4.3 Climate adaptation frontiers

4.4 Conclusion

Acknowledgements

5 Emerging dimensions of fair process for adaptation decision-making

5.1 Dimensions of adaptation decision-making and implications for fair adaptation

5.2 Markets, identity and responsibility

5.3 Conclusions

Acknowledgements

6 Conversations on adaptation effectiveness

6.1 Introduction

6.2 Perspectives from adaptation of urban centres

6.3 Perspectives from ecosystem adaptation

6.4 Perspectives from adaptation and human health

6.5 Perspectives from the adaptation of coastal zones

6.6 Discussion

6.7 Conclusions

6.8 Acknowledgements

7 Minimising the risk of maladaptation: a framework for analysis

7.1 Maladaptation

7.2 Adapting to sea-level rise in the South Pacific

7.3 The risk of maladaptation to sea-level rise in the South Pacific

7.4 Conclusion

Section 3 Enabling frameworks and policy for adaptation

8 How much adaptation: are existing policy and institutions enough?

8.1 Characterising adaptation as policy challenge

8.2 Using existing knowledge and capacities

8.3 Conclusion

9 Bridging the science–policy interface: informing climate governance in the USA

9.1 Introduction

9.2 The importance of non-nation-state actors in climate response and governance

9.3 Information and the iterative approach to managing climate risks

9.4 Improving information

9.5 Communicating information

9.6 Governmentality, information and the science–policy interface

9.7 Conclusions

10 Wise adaptation to climate change: the view from Japan

10.1 Introduction

10.2 An overview of climate change adaptation policy

10.3 Concept of wise adaptation

10.4 Guidelines for wise adaptation

10.5 Towards a safe and secure society with flexible adaptation

Acknowledgement

11 Scenarios for picturing a future adapted to +4°C

12 Creating legislative frameworks for adaptation

12.1 Introduction

12.2 The need for legislative frameworks

12.3 The ‘adaptive law’ contradiction

12.4 Legislative approaches to sea-level rise in Australia

12.5 Conclusions

13 Natural hazards and insurance

Section 4 Engaging with stakeholders

14 Communication of information for adaptation

14.1 Introduction

14.2 What is effective communication to support climate change adaptation?

14.3 Challenges and barriers to the effective communication of information for adaptation

14.4 Australia’s National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility: one approach towards improving communication of information for adaptation at a national level

14.5 Communication of information for adaptation: conclusions and future priorities

Case Study 1 Designer guidance: climate change information for New Zealand decision-makers

Case Study 2 Evidence based media: a communication approach for effective climate adaptation

Case Study 3 Indigenous people and climate change adaptation: engagement through tailored communication, research and monitoring

15 Fostering community acceptance of managed retreat in New Zealand

15.1 Introduction

15.2 Recent literature related to factors which influence acceptance of managed retreat policies

15.3 Case study: Project Twin Streams, Auckland, New Zealand

15.4 Conclusion

16 Community engagement to resolve climate adaptation conflicts: utilising consensus-building, joint fact-finding strategies and cognitive frames analysis

16.1 Introduction

16.2 Climate change adaptation, natural resources, uncertainty and conflict

16.3 Consensus-building for community adaptation to climate change

16.4 Joint fact-finding and assessments of climate impacts and adaptation strategies

16.5 Combining scientific information and local or traditional natural resource information within joint fact-finding

16.6 The application of cognitive frames analysis to adaptation conflicts

16.7 Conclusion

17 Shared learning on adapting to climate change in south-east British Columbia, Canada

17.1 Introduction

17.2 Coordination of community adaptation projects

17.3 Approaches used in Kimberley and Elkford projects

17.4 Climate change scenarios

17.5 Impact mapping

17.6 Visualisation of impacts

17.7 Dialogue with stakeholders and emergence of a learning network

17.8 Outcomes and conclusion

Acknowledgements

18 Cultural dimensions of climate change adaptation: Indigenous knowledge and future adaptive management in East Kimberley, Australia

18.1 Introduction

18.2 Background

18.3 Documenting Miriwoong seasonal knowledge

18.4 Conclusion

Section 5 Key challenges in adaptation and development

19 Adaptation, development and the community

19.1 Introduction

19.2 Links between adaptation, development and the community

19.3 Integrating adaptation, development, the community: community-based adaptation

19.4 Conclusions

20 Climate change and sustainable development in Botswana: towards a framework for adaptation

20.1 Introduction

20.2 Botswana: climate variability and climate change

20.3 Vulnerability to climate change

20.4 Responding to climate change and development challenges

20.5 Eco-region-based diversification: a sustainable approach for improved adaptation capacity

20.6 General discussion and concluding remarks

21 The challenge of adaptation that meets the needs of low-income urban dwellers

21.1 Introduction

21.2 Who are the ‘urban poor’? The continued challenge of urban poverty

21.3 The social dimensions of urban vulnerability

21.4 Effective adaptation for low-income urban residents

21.5 Conclusions

22 Migration doesn’t have to be a failure to adapt: an escape from environmental determinism

22.1 Introduction

22.2 Common perceptions of climate-induced migration

22.3 The impacts of climate change on migration

22.4 Conclusion: policy directions for migration as adaptation

23 Climate change adaptation pathways: insights from case studies in South Africa, Canada and the Pacific Islands

23.1 Introduction

23.2 Case Study 1: Adaptation to drought in northern Limpopo Province, South Africa

23.3 Case Study 2: Vulnerability assessment of the absolute homeless in Canada

23.4 Case Study 3: Community based adaptation in the Pacific Islands

23.5 Conclusion

Section 6 Natural systems and agricultural production

24 Ecosystem impacts and adaptation

24.1 Introduction

24.2 Ecosystem impacts and adaptation options

24.3 Prospects for the future

24.4 Conclusion

Acknowledgements

25 Nature’s technology an ecosystem-based approach to adaptation

25.1 Framing adaptation

25.2 What is ecosystem-based adaptation?

25.3 Examples of ecosystem-based adaptation

25.4 Ecosystem restoration of the Lower Danube Corridor

25.5 Flood protection at Alkborough

25.6 Managing urban heat impacts in Manchester

25.7 Conclusion

Case Study 4 Adaptation strategies of coffee producers in Coatepec, Veracruz, Mexico to climate variability and change

26 Adaptation measures to climate change in the Mongolian livestock sector

26.1 Introduction

26.2 Climate change

26.3 Vulnerability of livestock to climate extremes

26.4 Adaptation

26.5 Conclusions

Section 7 Water security

27 Addressing water security in China: screening for climate impacts and adaptation responses

27.1 China’s climate change challenge

27.2 Climate risk management: screening and assessment

27.3 Overview of the adaptation screening framework

27.4 Phase 1 – Rapid qualitative analysis

27.5 Phase 2 – Semi-quantitative and quantitative analysis

27.6 Phase 3 – Adaptation options assessment

27.7 Key lessons and conclusions

Acknowledgements

28 Drought proofing rural economies in semi-arid regions: lessons from north-east Brazil

28.1 The Brazilian north-east

28.2 Economy and society

28.3 Society, climate and under-development

28.4 Impacts of droughts

28.5 Climate and impacts in the future

28.6 Societal and policy responses

28.7 Concluding remarks

28.8 Some lessons from the NEB experience

29 Changing monsoon pattern and its impact on water resources in Himalaya: responses and adaptation

29.1 Introduction

29.2 Methods

29.3 Results and discussion

29.4 Conclusions

Section 8 Urban infrastructure and livelihoods

30 Adapting to climate change in cities

30.1 Introduction

30.2 Urban risk management

30.3 Tunis: adapting to flood hazards

30.4 Toronto: coordinating climate projections

30.5 Australian coastal cities – capacity to adapt?

30.6 Adaptation planning

30.7 Urban south – variations in adaptation planning

30.8 Dutch Eemsdelta – resilience through floodable landscape

30.9 Australian local governments – adapting through strategic planning

30.10 Conclusions

Acknowledgements

31 A Bayesian network approach to investigating climate change and commodity price change impacts on human well-being: a case study of employment from Queensland, Australia

31.1 Introduction

31.2 Bayesian belief network

31.3 Formalising the structure of the national well-being barometer using survey data

31.4 North-west region case study

31.5 General discussion

31.6 Conclusions

Case Study 5 Adaptation responses to agricultural change and increasing salinisation in the Mekong Delta, Việt Nam

Case Study 6 Adaptation to climate change impacts on buildings and infrastructure: electricity infrastructure

Case Study 7 Adaptation to climate change impacts on buildings and infrastructure: building energy efficiency and mitigation effectiveness

Section 9 Extremes, disaster management and adaptation

32 Extreme event risk and climate change adaptation: improving the knowledge base and building capacity

32.1 Introduction

32.2 Case Study 1: Modelling shoreline response and inundation in a changed climate

32.3 Case Study 2: Modelling impact of a surge event under climate change

32.4 Discussion and conclusions

33 Linking disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation: a good practice project in Jakarta, Indonesia

33.1 Introduction

33.2 Disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation: focus on similarities

33.3 Integrated Community Based Risk Reduction (ICBRR) Jakarta Project: Indonesian Red Cross

33.4 Key activities of linking DRR and CCA: Integrated Community Based Risk Reduction Project (ICBRR) in Jakarta Province

33.5 Project outcomes and challenges

33.6 Conclusions

Supplemental Images

Index

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Climate adaptation futures / edited by Jean Palutikof, Sarah L. Boulter, Andrew J. Ash, Mark Stafford Smith, Martin Parry, Marie Waschka and Daniela Guitart. pages cmIncludes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN 978-0-470-67496-3 (cloth) 1. Climatic changes. 2. Climatic changes–Environmental aspects. 3. Global environmental changes. 4. Environmental policy. I. Palutikof, Jean. QC903.C438 2013363.738′74–dc23

2012037877

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.

Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats. Some content that appears in print may not be available in electronic books.

Cover image: Courtesy of Morguefile and (left to right) macshack / kakisky / wallyir / solrac_gi_2ndCover design by Steve Thompson

List of Contributors

W. NEIL ADGER College of Life and Environ­mental Sciences, University of Exeter, UKANDREW J. ASH CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship, AustraliaJESSICA AYERS International Institute for Environment and Development, UKJON BARNETT Department of Resource Management and Geography, University of Melbourne, AustraliaSARAH L. BOULTER National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Griffith University, AustraliaBOLORMAA BUYNDALAI Mongolia Water Forum, MongoliaJOANN CARMIN Department of Urban Studies and Planning, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USADONG CHEN CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship, and CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, AustraliaCORDIA CHU Centre for Environment and Population Health, Griffith University, AustraliaSTEWART COHEN Environment Canada, and University of British Columbia, CanadaCECILIA CONDE Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, UNAM, MexicoCAROLINE COWAN Scottish Government, ScotlandFLORENCE CRICK Urban Research Program, Griffith University, AustraliaSTEVEN CRIMP CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship, and CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, AustraliaDAVID DODMAN International Institute for Environment and Development, UKSTEPHEN DOVERS Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, AustraliaOPHA PAULINE DUBE Department of Environmental Science, University of Botswana, BostwanaOLIVIA DUN School of Geosciences, University of Sydney, AustraliaFEBI DWIRAHMADI International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, Indonesia, and Centre for Environment and Population Health, Griffith University, AustraliaADAM FENECH Environment Canada, and University of Toronto, CanadaHARTMUT FÜNFGELD Climate Change Adaptation Program, RMIT University, AustraliaFRANÇOIS GEMENNE Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Sciences Po Paris, FranceJOEL GILMORE ROAM Consulting, AustraliaANDY HAINES London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, University of London, UKMARTYN HAZELWOOD Climate Hazards and Risk Section, Geoscience Australia, AustraliaALISTAIR J. HOBDAY Climate Adaptation Flagship, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, AustraliaIAN HOLMAN Cranfield Water Science Institute, Cranfield University, UKMARK HOWDEN CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship, and CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, AustraliaSALEEMUL HUQ International Institute for Environment and Development, UKBHAGWATI JOSHI Department of Geography, Government Post Graduate College, IndiaROBERT KAY Adaptive Futures, AustraliaJULIE KNAUF Ministry for the Environment, New ZealandYADH LABANE Tunisian Association of Climate Change and Sustainable Development (2C2D), Republic of TunisiaJENNY LANGRIDGE CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, AustraliaART LANGSTON CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, AustraliaMICHELLE LAURIE Michelle Laurie Consulting, CanadaSONIA LEONARD School of Population Health, The University of Melbourne, AustraliaJUN LI Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement, FranceINGRID LIEPA The Connecting Link, CanadaDIANA M. LIVERMAN University of Arizona, USATIM LYNAM CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, AustraliaJANET MACDONALD Atlas Communications, New ZealandNIC MACLELLAN Independent Consultant, AustraliaANTONIO ROCHA MAGALHÃES Center for Strategic Studies and Management (CGEE), BrazilYIHEYIS MARU CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, AustraliaSABRINA McCORMICK Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, George Washington University, USAJAN McDONALD University of Tasmania, AustraliaSHAGUN MEHROTRA Milano School of International Affairs, Management and Urban Policy, and Department of Economics, The New School, USAGUY F. MIDGLEY Climate Change Research Group, South African National Biodiversity Institute, and School of Agricultural, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Kwazulu, South AfricaNOBUO MIMURA Institute for Global Change Adaptation Science, Ibaraki University, JapanALEJANDRO MONTERROSO Universidad Autónoma de Chapingo, MexicoTREVOR MURDOCK Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, CanadaROHAN A. NELSON Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture, University of Tasmania, AustraliaBATNASAN NYAMSUREN UNICEF, MongoliaSAFFRON J. O’NEILL College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, UKJEAN PALUTIKOF National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Griffith University, AustraliaMARTIN PARRY The Grantham Institute for Climate Change and Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, UKMEG PARSONS Center for Health and Society, The University of Melbourne, AustraliaCINDY PEARCE Mountain Labyrinths Inc., CanadaMARÍA PÉREZ MARTÍN Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, UNAM, MexicoELLEN POND University of British Columbia, CanadaJULIAN PRIOR School of Environmental and Rural Science, University of New England, AustraliaBATIMAA PUNSALMAA Mongolia Water Forum, MongoliaZHENGEN REN CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship and CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, AustraliaJENNY RIESZ ROAM Consulting, AustraliaROB ROGGEMA Swinburne University, Australia, Delft University of Technology, and Wageningen University, The NetherlandsGUILLERMO ROSALES Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, UNAM, MexicoCYNTHIA ROSENZWEIG NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, USASHANNON RUTHERFORD Centre for Environment and Population Health, Griffith University, AustraliaJOHN SCHNEIDER Regional Risk Group, Geoscience Australia, AustraliaSTEPHEN H. SCHNEIDER (Deceased) Stanford University, USAOLAF SCHROTH Swiss National Science Foundation, University of British Columbia, Canada, and University of Sheffield, UKSANDRA SCHUSTER Independent Consultant, AustraliaMARK STAFFORD SMITH CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship, AustraliaWILL STEFFEN The ANU Climate Change Institute, The Australian National University, AustraliaTHOMAS TANNER Climate Change Team, Institute of Development Studies, UKBRUCE THOM School of Geosciences, University of Sydney, AustraliaFRANK THOMALLA Department of Environment and Geography, Macquarie University, AustraliaPRAKASH CHANDRA TIWARI Department of Geography, Kumaun University, IndiaSIMON TOROK CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, AustraliaWAYNE ULRICH International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, IndonesiaANNA VANDENBELD Ministry for the Environment, New ZealandKATHARINE VINCENT Kulima Integrated Development Solutions, South AfricaJOHANNA WANDEL Department of Geography and Environmental Management, University of Waterloo, CanadaXIAOMING WANG CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship, and CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, AustraliaMARIE WASCHKA National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Griffith University, AustraliaEMMA L. WOODWARD Tropical Ecosystem Research Centre, CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, AustraliaMARTINE WOOLF Climate Hazards and Risk Section, Geoscience Australia, AustraliaJUN XIA The Research Institute for Water Security, Wuhan University and Key Lab of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Chinese Academy of Sciences, ChinaJEFF ZUKIWSKY Zumundo Consultants, Canada

Preface

As I write this preface, the media is full of accounts of the record-breaking floods in southern Russia, and the record-breaking heatwave in the eastern USA, made worse for many by the power blackouts caused by earlier severe storms. Climate ­scientists tell us that they cannot unequivocally state that these extremes are caused by climate change but, nevertheless, this is how it begins – with more frequent and more severe extremes, as well as with a gradual increase in temperature and a shift in rainfall patterns. This book sets out to explore some of the challenges that we will all face over the coming decades as we seek to adapt to changing climatic conditions.

It arises out of an international conference on adaptation held on the Gold Coast, Queensland, in June 2012. I had grown weary of the many conferences I had attended on climate modelling which had a day for impacts and adaptation presentations as justification for the large expenditure incurred by the modellers. So, in a new job, in a new organisation, there was the will and the capacity to hold a large international conference dedicated entirely and exclusively to adaptation – a small window of opportunity before we would be overwhelmed by the day-to-day activities of the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF, www.nccarf.edu.au). But of course, a new organisation doesn’t have the reputation and standing to pull in the crowds – enter the CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship (www.csiro.au/ca). So, a natural alliance was formed to hold the conference, which was a grand success, with over 1000 participants from some 50 countries.

This book emerged from the conference, but it has grown to be much more than a straightforward proceedings. Rather, it is a picture of the state of adaptation science built up over the two years since the conference, opening with an in-depth chapter laying out the five challenges of adaptation, followed by 39 chapters/case studies collected into nine sections, which cover the whole spectrum from adapting ecosystems and agriculture through to communication of adaptation knowledge and the intersection of adaptation with issues of poverty, equity, development and sustainability. Ninety authors contributed to the book from 18 countries.

My co-editors are, with one exception, from NCCARF (Sarah Boulter, Marie Waschka and Daniela Guitart) and the CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship (Andrew Ash and Mark Stafford Smith). The exception is Martin Parry, who was the Co-Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II Fourth Assessment when I was the Head of the Technical Support Unit. I thank these friends and colleagues for their support and commitment to the completion of this book – without them it could not have happened.

Jean Palutikof, NCCARF, Gold CoastJuly 2012

Section 1

Introduction

1  The past, present and future of adaptation: setting the context and naming the challenges

JEAN PALUTIKOF1, MARTIN PARRY2, MARK STAFFORD SMITH3, ANDREW J. ASH3, SARAH L. BOULTER1AND MARIE WASCHKA1

1National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Griffith University, Australia2The Grantham Institute for Climate Change and Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, UK3CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship, Australia

1.1 The purpose of this book

This book seeks to expose and debate key issues in climate change adaptation, and to report the current state of knowledge on adaptation. Adaptation is often the poor cousin of the climate change challenge – the glamour of international debate in metaphorically smoke-filled rooms is around mitigation, whereas the bottom-up activities of adaptation carried out in community halls and local government offices are often overlooked. Yet as international forums increasingly fail to deliver against mitigation targets, the realisation is dawning that effective adaptation will be essential across all sectors to deal with the unavoidable impacts of climate change.

Many challenges surround the definition and implementation of successful adaptation, which this book seeks to address. To explore these challenges, we have taken a selection of papers from the First International Conference on Climate Change Adaptation ‘Climate Adaptation Futures’, held on the Gold Coast, Australia, in June 2010. This three-day meeting of over 1000 researchers and practitioners in adaptation was the first of its kind.

What are these challenges? We begin this chapter with a discussion of five principal challenges for adaptation. We then outline the content of this book. We map the chapters of the book onto the five challenges, so that those who wish to explore in greater depth can do so.

1.2 What are the five principal challenges for adaptation today?

1.2.1 Challenge 1: Understanding the balance of actions to adapt and actions to mitigate

We tend to assume that the wisest course of action in confronting climate change involves a mix of two actions: (a) reducing emissions as much as we can afford so as to keep impacts and adaptation costs to the minimum over the long term, (b) adapting to most of the remaining impacts so as to minimise damage to society and the environment. Then, thirdly, we bear the costs of the unavoidable residual damage (which includes impacts that we cannot adapt to or we judge not worth adapting to). Figure 1.1 is a schematic of the trade-offs between these three with, in the example shown, the mix being located to the right of the triangle, the predominant actions being roughly equal amounts of mitigation and adaptation, with less being spent on remedial damage. A less optimistic picture (more ‘realistic’ say those dismayed at the slow progress of international climate policy) would be to locate the mix of actions more to the left of the triangle, with less action on mitigation and adaptation leading to more damage from impacts.

Figure 1.1 Schematic on interconnection between climate change impacts, mitigation and adaptation. With kind permission from Springer Science and Business Media: Climatic Change, 96, 2009, 23–27, Closing the loop between mitigation, impacts and adaptation, Parry, M., Figure 1.

Schemas such as this suggest that we know the relationship between action and outcome, whether it be mitigation or adaptation. In theory we might, but in practice we do not. Even if we did, it is not clear whether an ‘optimal’ mix of actions exists even in theory (i.e. one where actions along each of the three lines give the most reward). However, this schema is a fair reflection, in outline, of how our current actions are premised: that if we take one line of action we will ultimately reduce costs along another. If this is the case, what task is being left to adaptation given the current effort (and expected outcome) from mitigation?

Adapting for ‘overshoot and recover’

It is widely accepted that the threshold for dangerous climate change is a warming of 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. It is increasingly unlikely that emissions of greenhouse gases can be held at a level that will ensure global temperatures remain below this threshold (Rogelj et al. 2011): it would require stabilisation at about 450 ppm CO equivalent (COe) and we are already at 430 COe. Therefore, we need to explore scenarios in which atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, and possibly even global temperatures, overshoot their targets and then recover to stabilise below dangerous levels.