Climate Change E-Book

Marie-Antoinette Mélières

• Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
• Kategorie: Wissenschaft und neue Technologien
• Sprache: Englisch

Seitenzahl: 820

Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2015

Beschreibung

This book is designed for first- and second-year university students (and their instructors) in earth science, environmental science, and physical geography degree programmes worldwide. The summaries at the end of each section constitute essential reading for policy makers and planners. It provides a simple but masterly account, with a minimum of equations, of how the Earth’s climate system works, of the physical processes that have given rise to the long sequence of glacial and interglacial periods of the Quaternary, and that will continue to cause the climate to evolve. Its straightforward and elegant description, with an abundance of well chosen illustrations, focuses on different time scales, and includes the most recent research in climate science by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It shows how it is human behaviour that will determine whether or not the present century is a turning point to a new climate, unprecedented on Earth in the last several million years.

Leseprobe

CLIMATE CHANGE: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE

Marie-Antoinette Mélières

Université Grenoble Alpes, France

and

Chloé Maréchal

Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, France

Translated by

Erik Geissler

Université Grenoble Alpes, France

and Catherine Cox

This edition first published 2015 © by John Wiley & Sons Ltd

© CRDP Académie de Grenoble, first published 2010 as Climat et société. Climats passés, passage de l'homme, climats futurs: repères essentiels by Marie-Antoinette Mélières and Chloé Maréchal.

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication DataMélières, Marie-Antoinette.     [Climat et société. English]     Climate change : past, present, and future / Marie-Antoinette Mélières and Chloé Maréchal ; translated by Erik Geissler and Catherine Cox.        pages cm     Originally published: Grenoble : CRDP de l' Académie de Grenoble, 2010.     Includes index.     ISBN 978-1-118-70852-1 (cloth) – ISBN 978-1-118-70851-4 (pbk.) 1. Climatic changes. 2. Biodiversity. 3. Greenhouse effect, Atmospheric. 4. Global warming. 5. Climate change mitigation. I. Maréchal, Chloé. II. Title.     QC902.9.M4513 2015     551.6–dc23

2014039734

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.

About the cover: Banded iceberg drifting a couple of miles off the French station, Dumont d'Urville (Terre Adélie), Antarctica. White stripes are normal glacier ice resulting from snow compaction including air bubbles. The coloured stripes are the result of the melting and refreezing processes within the layered structure of the iceberg. Due to enhanced melting at the contact with the ocean, the immersed part rapidly reduces leading to a tipping over as revealed by the now tilted stripes. © Emmanuel Le Meur, 2008/9.

Contents

Foreword

Discovering complexity: a springboard for action

Acknowledgements

About the companion website

Introduction

Aims

The situation in brief . . .

. . . and the questions that arise

The different parts of this book

PART I: THE CLIMATE ENGINE OF THE EARTH: ENERGY

1. Why are there many different climates on Earth?

2. Different climates . . . such diversity of life

2.1 The different climates on Earth

2.2 Climates, biomes and biodiversity

2.3 Climate and society

3. From a patchwork of climates to an average climate

3.1 Temperature and thermal equilibrium

3.2 The average temperature of the Earth’s surface

3.3 Precipitation

3.4 Wind

3.5 Three major items in energy consumption

4. The global mean climate

4.1 The Sun, source of energy

4.2 The energy equilibrium at the Earth’s surface

5. Atmosphere and ocean: key factors in climate equilibrium

5.1 Driving forces

5.2 The atmosphere

5.3 The oceans

5.4 Heat transport from the Equator to the poles

Part I Summary

Part I Notes

Part I Further Reading

PART II: MORE ON THE ENERGY BALANCE OF THE PLANET

6. Thermal radiation, solar and terrestrial radiation

6.1 Thermal radiation from a

black body

6.2 The laws of black-body radiation

6.3 Solar and terrestrial radiation

7. The impact of the atmosphere on radiation

7.1 Scattering and reflection

7.2 Absorption by a gas – the

cut-off approximation

7.3 Absorption of solar and terrestrial radiation by atmospheric gases

7.4 Direct transfer by the atmosphere

7.5 Major atmospheric constituents involved in radiative transfer

8. Radiative transfer through the atmosphere

8.1 Three radiative mechanisms that heat or cool the Earth’s surface

8.2 The greenhouse effect

8.3 Radiative transfer: the roles of the different constituents

8.4 The radiation balance of the Earth

9. The energy balance

9.1 The energy balance at the surface of the Earth in the

single-layer model

9.2 The Earth’s energy balance at equilibrium 

9.3 The impact of human activity

9.4 The present unbalanced global energy budget

10. Climate forcing and feedback

10.1 Climate forcing

10.2 Feedbacks

10.3 Climate sensitivity

11. Climate modelling

11.1 The Energy Balance and Radiative–Convective Models

11.2 Three-dimensional Atmosphere Global Circulation Models

11.3 Three-dimensional models: ever-increasing refinements 

11.4 Climate models – what for?

Part II Summary

Part II Notes

Part II Further Reading

PART III: THE DIFFERENT CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGE

12. The choice of approach

13. The Sun’s emission

13.1 The impact on the climate

13.2 How emission varies

13.3 What are the consequences?

14. The position of the Earth with respect to the Sun

14.1 An overview

14.2 Irradiance, determined by orbital parameters

14.3 Changes in obliquity: the impact on the seasons

14.5 Precession of the axis of rotation: the impact on the Earth–Sun distance at different seasons

14.6 Changes in irradiance

15. The composition of the atmosphere

15.1 The effect on the climate: the mechanism

15.2 How the composition has changed, and why

15.3 What are the consequences?

16. Heat transfer from the Equator to the poles

16.1 The impact on the climate: the mechanism

16.2 How and why can the transfer vary?

16.3 What are the consequences?

17. Oscillations due to ocean–atmosphere interactions

17.1 The impact on the climate: the mechanism

17.2 The El Niño Southern Oscillation and trade wind fluctuations

17.3 The North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations

Part III Summary

Part III Notes

Part III Further Reading

PART IV: LEARNING FROM THE PAST …

18. Memory of the distant past

18.1 Over billions of years …

18.2 The past tens of millions of years: slow cooling

18.3 The entry of Northern Hemisphere glaciations

19. Since 2.6 million years ago: the dance of glaciations

19.1 The archives of the dance

19.2 The glacial–interglacial cycles

19.3 Glacials and interglacials: very different climate stages

19.4 Glacials and interglacials: similar but never identical

19.5 Abrupt climate changes in the last climate cycle

20. Glacial–interglacial cycles and the Milankovitch theory

20.1 The leading role of the Northern Hemisphere

20.2 Seasonal irradiance, the key parameter in Quaternary glaciations

20.3 Two types of configuration

20.4 The climate in the past 250,000 years

20.5 Glacials and interglacials: similar situations, never identical

20.6 The energy budget: radiative forcing and feedback

21. The glaciation dance: consequences and lessons

21.1 The impact on life of glacial–interglacial cycles

21.2 Lessons to be drawn

21.3 When will the next glaciation come?

22. The past 12,000 years: the warm Holocene

22.1 The Holocene

22.2 Deciphering climate changes during the Holocene

22.3 Slow changes in irradiance (Timescale 1: millennia)

22.4 Slow cooling at middle and high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere

22.5 Strong monsoon in the Early Holocene: the ‘Green Sahara’ episode

22.6 Solar fluctuations (Timescale 2: centuries)

22.7 The Holocene and the birth of agriculture and animal husbandry

23. Global and regional fluctuations (Timescale 3: decades)

23.1 From global …

23.2 … to regional: the North Atlantic Oscillation

23.3 The Sun, the other source of change

24. Future warming and past climates

24.1 The global ‘hot flush’ of 55 million years ago

24.2 Three million years ago

24.3 Warmer periods in the past 2 million years?

Part IV Summary

Part IV Notes

Part IV Further Reading

PART V: CLIMATE CHANGE IN RECENT YEARS

25. Recent climate change

25.1 Changes in temperature

25.2 Changes in precipitation, water vapour and extreme events

25.3 An overview of the past few decades

25.4 The impact of global warming: the key issue

26. The impact of global warming on the cryosphere

26.1 Sea ice, the ‘canary’ of our planet

26.2 Changes in glaciers

26.3 Ice-sheet changes

26.4 Changes in frozen soils

26.5 Freeze-up and snow cover

27. The impact of warming on the ocean

27.1 Change in sea level

27.2 Regional changes in ocean salinity

27.3 Is deep ocean circulation slowing?

27.4 Changes in dissolved carbon dioxide and ocean acidification

27.5 In summary: consistency over the globe

28. The impact of warming on the biosphere

28.1 Ongoing changes

28.2 Oceans

28.3 Land

28.4 Portents of dysfunction

29. Warming in the 20th century: natural or human-induced?

29.1 The carbon cycle prior to the industrial era

29.2 The impact of human activity on the carbon cycle

29.3 Changes related to human activity

29.4 Natural causes: solar and volcanic activity

29.5 An overview of all the causes: the major role of human activity

Part V Summary

Part V Notes

Part V Further Reading

PART VI: CLIMATE IN THE 21ST CENTURY: DIFFERENT SCENARIOS

30. Two key factors

30.1 Greenhouse gas emissions

30.2 Population growth

31. Projections: economic scenarios and climate models

31.1 Successive steps in a projection

31.2 Climate models

32. Simulations: a survey

32.1 Long-term scenarios

32.2 IPCC 2007 scenarios for the 21st century

32.3 IPCC 2013 scenarios for the 21st century

33. Future warming and its consequences

33.1 Global warming

33.2 The water cycle and precipitation

33.3 Extreme events

33.4 Snow and ice

33.5 The sea level

33.6 Ocean acidification

33.7 Climate predictions: what degree of confidence?

33.8 In summary, the future is already with us

34. The choice

34.1 Can future warming be counteracted naturally?

34.2 Which choice of scenario?

34.3 Global warming: no more than 2°C

34.4 The ‘Triple Zero’ challenge

35. Climate change in the present state of the planet

35.1 Environmental degradation

35.2 Depletion of energy resources

35.3 Inexorable world population growth?

35.4 A new type of development?

Part VI Summary

Part VI Notes

Part VI Further Reading

Conclusion

References

Index

End User License Agreement

List of Tables

Chapter 1

Table 1.1

Chapter 7

Table 7.1