Deep Adaptation E-Book
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- Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
- Kategorie: Geisteswissenschaft
- Sprache: Englisch
'Deep adaptation' refers to the personal and collective changes that might help us to prepare for - and live with - a climate-influenced breakdown or collapse of our societies. It is a framework for responding to the terrifying realization of increasing disruption by committing ourselves to reducing suffering while saving more of society and the natural world. This is the first book to show how professionals across different sectors are beginning to incorporate the acceptance of likely or unfolding societal breakdown into their work and lives. They do not assume that our current economic, social and political systems can be made resilient in the face of climate change but, instead, they demonstrate the caring and creative ways that people are responding to the most difficult realization with which humanity may ever have to come to terms. Edited by the originator of the concept of deep adaptation, Jem Bendell, and a leading climate activist and strategist, Rupert Read, this book is the essential introduction to the concept, practice and emerging global movement of Deep Adaptation to climate chaos.
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Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2021
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CONTENTS
Cover
Endorsement
Title Page
Copyright
Acknowledgements
About the Contributors
Introduction: What Next, Now That the Limits Have Been Breached?
References
Part I The Predicament
1 What Climate Science Can and Cannot Tell Us About Our Predicament
Where we are after 125 years of climate science
The root of denial may be found in the workings of climate science
A case for the virtue of scientific ignorance
Two possible new approaches for survival and compassion
References
2 Deep Adaptation: A Map for Navigating Climate Tragedy
Preamble
Introduction
Locating this study within academia
Our non-linear world
Looking ahead
Apocalypse uncertain
Systems of denial
Framing after denial
The deep adaptation agenda
Research futures in the face of climate tragedy
Conclusions
References
3 Reasons for Anticipating Societal Collapse
Introduction
What do we do with this?
References
Part II Shifts in Being
4 Climate Psychology and its Relevance to Deep Adaptation
Why climate psychology?
Shiva – seeing what we need to see from inside a sick culture
Formation
The devil has the best tunes
Denial
Forms of denial
Denialism
Disavowal
A nexus of denial
The psychotherapy profession – another case study?
References
5 Deeper Implications of Societal Collapse: Co-liberation from the Ideology of E-s-c-a-p-e
Entitlement in E-s-c-a-p-e ideology
Surety in e-S-c-a-p-e ideology
Control in e-s-C-a-p-e ideology
Autonomy in e-s-c-A-p-e ideology
Progress in e-s-c-a-P-e ideology
Exceptionalism in e-s-c-a-p-E ideology
Habits of e-s-c-a-p-e in the climate change field
The economic reproduction of e-s-c-a-p-e
Moving beyond e-s-c-a-p-e to c-o-s-m-o-s
Considerations for co-liberation from destructive ideology
References
6 Unconscious Addictions: Mapping Common Responses to Climate Change and Potential Climate Collapse
Introduction
Climate collapse denial
The house of modernity and its four constitutive denials
Responses to the possibility of climate collapse
The rehab
References
7 Facilitating Deep Adaptation: Enabling More Loving Conversations about Our Predicament
The importance of facilitating groups in the face of collapse
Understanding ‘othering’ and its remedy with facilitation
Aspects of facilitating deep adaptation
Containment
Denial and radical uncertainty
Grief
Examples of deep adaptation modalities and facilitated processes
Deep listening
Conclusion
References
8 The Great Turning: Reconnecting Through Collapse
Natural allies
Facing collapse
Doing the work
Meaning and hope in a time of collapse
Conclusion: People of the Passage
References
Part III Shifts in Doing
9 Leadership and Management in a Context of Deep Adaptation
Introduction
What we know about leadership in times of collapse
Social functions performed by leadership
What it takes to sustain kind, inclusive, effective and legitimate leadership
What can be done to generate the more desirable modes of leadership and management
References
10 What Matters Most? Deep Education Conversations in a Climate of Change and Complexity
The distillations of a deep adaptation inquiry
Resilience: what aspects of education as we know it would we want to develop and learn from in a climate of change and complexity?
Relinquishment: what aspects of education as we know it would we want to let go of?
Restoration: what would we want to reintroduce into education?
Reconciliation: how can education facilitate acceptance as well as agency?
The deep education conversation
The deep challenge
The call to action
Emerging global practices
Workshops on climate breakdown: Simona Vaitkute, Lithuania
Self-directed education (SDE) and full human rightsexperience education (FHREE): Je’anna Clements, Riverstone Village, South Africa
References
11 Riding Two Horses: The Future of Politics and Activism, as We Face Potential Eco-driven Societal Collapse
References
12 Relocalization as Deep Adaptation
Resilience
Aspects of relocalization
Food
Electricity
Government
Finance
Money
Localization movements
Intentional communities
Transition network (TN)
Global justice and organizing for relocalization
Conclusion
References
Concluding the Beginning of Deep Adaptation
Communicating deep adaptation
Seek more justice?
Integrate more clearly?
Map collapse better?
Avoid safety of frameworks?
Be more positive?
Conclusion: an end to the beginning
References
End User License Agreement
Guide
Cover
Table of Contents
Endorsement
Title Page
Copyright
Acknowledgements
About the Contributors
Introduction: What Next, Now That the Limits Have Been Breached?
Begin Reading
Concluding the Beginning of Deep Adaptation
End User License Agreement
List of Illustrations
Chapter 6
Figure 6.1
The House that Modernity Built (adapted with permission from Andreotti et al. 20…
Chapter 7
Figure 7.1
Interrelated forms and drivers of othering
Chapter 13
Figure 13.1
Government propaganda in support of emergency localized food production
List of Boxs
Chapter 1
Box 1.1
The international scholars warning on collapse risk
Chapter 5
Box 5.1
The ideology of e-s-c-a-p-e
Box 5.2
Comparing c-i-r-c-u-l-a-r and e-s-c-a-p-e models
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Praise forDeep Adaptation
‘The authors of this book have courage to recognise the reality of our time and face the uncomfortable facts of climate calamity. The theme of this book is indeed scary. But it’s full of bright ideas for how to transmute both fear and difficulty into kind and wise ways of living and working. The thinkers, academics and activists who have contributed to this book embody the wisdom to adapt to this unprecedented catastrophe. They also show the practical ways and means to live and act with the imagination and resilience. Not everyone would agree to these radical ideas but everyone needs to know about them. So, I recommend this book to all.’
Satish Kumar, Editor Emeritus for Resurgence & Ecologist and Founder of Schumacher College
‘Collapse followed by transformation is a common way that complex systems evolve. Perhaps collapse of our high consumption, climate-destabilising society can lead to transformation towards a brighter human future. The Deep Adaptation framework outlined in this book is a helpful way to seek that transformation.’
Professor Will Steffen, Australian National University Climate Change Institute
DEEP ADAPTATION
Navigating the Realities of Climate Chaos
Edited by Jem Bendell and Rupert Read
polity
Copyright © Jem Bendell and Rupert Read 2021
The right of Jem Bendell and Rupert Read to be identified as Editors of this Work has been asserted in accordance with the UK Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
First published in 2021 by Polity Press
Polity Press65 Bridge StreetCambridge CB2 1UR, UK
Polity Press101 Station LandingSuite 300Medford, MA 02155, USA
All rights reserved. Except for the quotation of short passages for the purpose of criticism and review, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher.
ISBN-13: 978-1-5095-4685-5
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
Names: Bendell, Jem, editor. | Read, Rupert J., 1966- editor.¬†Title: Deep adaptation : navigating the realities of climate chaos / edited by Jem Bendell & Rupert Read.¬†Description: Cambridge, UK ; Medford, MA : Polity Press, 2021. | Includes bibliographical references. | Summary: “A new agenda for how we can prepare for societal collapse in an age of climate chaos”-- Provided by publisher.¬†Identifiers: LCCN 2020052406 (print) | LCCN 2020052407 (ebook) | ISBN 9781509546831 (hardback) | ISBN 9781509546848 (paperback) | ISBN 9781509546855 (epub)¬†Subjects: LCSH: Climatic changes--Social aspects. | Climate change mitigation--Social aspects. | Climate change mitigation--Social aspects.Classification: LCC QC903 .D443 2021¬† (print) | LCC QC903¬† (ebook) | DDC 304.2/5--dc23LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2020052406LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2020052407
The publisher has used its best endeavours to ensure that the URLs for external websites referred to in this book are correct and active at the time of going to press. However, the publisher has no responsibility for the websites and can make no guarantee that a site will remain live or that the content is or will remain appropriate.
Every effort has been made to trace all copyright holders, but if any have been overlooked the publisher will be pleased to include any necessary credits in any subsequent reprint or edition.
For further information on Polity, visit our website: politybooks.com
Acknowledgements
The editors thank Katie Carr for providing editorial support for this book and the Griffith Centre for Sustainable Enterprise (Griffith University, Australia), with its director Dr Rob Hales, for helping to finance that support. We also thank Atus Mariqueo-Russell for editorial help and each chapter contributor for responding courageously to our call to apply their hearts and minds to this difficult topic.
We also thank the Club of Rome for their enthusiasm for this book, which joins the vital and vast conversation they began in 1972 when they warned of societal collapse. Jorgen Randers helped us in the earliest stages of the planning. We hope that our focus in this book about preparing to soften the impact and harm of any and all such collapses will be a useful, though unfortunate and stressful, addition to their ongoing dialogue and policy initiatives.
Jem Bendell: I thank the many volunteers in the Deep Adaptation Forum around the world, most of whom I have never met in person and yet feel admiration and affection for. Your decision to step up and help people come together in new ways for new initiatives at this difficult time has felt like a balm for my soul. I also thank the people who have been important to my intellectual journey in recent years, including Katie Carr, Richard Little, Matthew Slater, Zori Tomova, Vanessa Andreotti and all the authors cited in chapter 5.
Rupert Read: I thank many colleagues in and beyond Extinction Rebellion: the journey of transformative and deep adaptations will be a defining one of the 2020s; thanks to the post-XR ‘TrAd’ group for helping me pathfind (especially Oona, April, Simon, Skeena). And I thank my academic colleagues (and next-door neighbours) Jo Clarke and Nick Brooks for invaluable discussions on the same topics: what starts in Merton Road doesn’t stay in Merton Road. Thanks finally to the AHRC for grant support that helped provide some time and resources for me for this book.
About the Contributors
Jem Bendell, PhD, is a University of Cumbria professor and founder of the Deep Adaptation Forum (deepadaptation.info). As a researcher, educator and advisor, he specializes in leadership, communication, facilitation and currency innovation for deep adaptation to climate chaos. He authored the viral ‘Deep Adaptation’ paper, downloaded around a million times. He has worked for over 25 years on social and organizational change, in more than twenty countries, with business, voluntary organizations and political parties. With 100-plus publications, including five for the United Nations, and involvement in developing multistakeholder initiatives, he was recognized as a Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum.
Tereza Čajkova has been working in the field of education for sustainable development, focusing on questions related to what kind of learning and skills we need to face unprecedented global challenges together. She is currently working towards a PhD at the University of British Columbia. Her research is oriented on extending theories of social innovation beyond prevalent paradigms to support more socially and ecologically accountable innovation practices.
Katie Carr, MA, is a facilitator of collaborative learning with seventeen years’ experience within formal education, with communities and within organizations. Her practice focuses on bringing conscious, loving awareness to the relational space between people where we can explore what it means to be human and alive together. As Senior Facilitator for the Deep Adaptation Forum (DAF), Katie has led the development of a community of practice for facilitators. Katie teaches leadership at Masters level and also acts as a guide and coach to senior leaders in the voluntary, private and public sectors who are working on the climate crisis.
Gauthier Chapelle is a Belgian author, lecturer and in-Terre-dependent researcher in biomimicry and collapsology, as well as a father, naturalist, agricultural engineer and doctor in polar biology. He was one of the pioneers of biomimicry in Europe (2003) and of the Work that Reconnects, inspired by Joanna Macy (2010), which he still offers with Terr’Eveille. Since 2015, he encourages organizational and ‘low-tech’ biomimicry in anticipation of the civilization collapse, alongside his friends and co-authors Pablo Servigne (‘Mutual aid, the other law of the jungle’) and Raphaël Stevens (‘Another end of the world is possible’, with Pablo Servigne).
Jonathan Gosling is Emeritus Professor of Leadership at Exeter University. He is now an independent academic with roles in the Forward Institute, promoting responsible leadership in government, NGOs and business; and supporting the frontline leadership of HIV and malaria control programs in Africa. He represented UK universities at the Rio+20 UN Sustainability summit and contributes to the ‘greening’ of management education, e.g. as co-author of the textbook Sustainable Business: A One Planet Approach and co-founder of One Planet Education Networks (OPEN). He worked for many years as a community mediator, co-founded Coachingourselves.com and is a keen sailor.
Sean Kelly, PhD, is Professor of Philosophy, Cosmology and Consciousness at the California Institute of Integral Studies (CIIS). He is the author of Becoming Gaia: On the Threshold of Planetary Initiation; Coming Home: The Birth and Transformation of the Planetary Era; co-editor of The Variety of Integral Ecologies: Nature, Culture, and Knowledge in the Planetary Era; and co-translator of Edgar Morin’s Homeland Earth: A Manifesto for the New Millennium. Along with his academic work, Sean teaches Taiji and is a facilitator of the group process the Work that Reconnects.
Joanna Macy, PhD, is a scholar of Buddhism, deep ecology and general systems theory and a respected voice in the movements for peace, justice and ecology. She is the root teacher of the Work that Reconnects and author of many articles and books, including Coming Back to Life; World as Lover, World as Self; Active Hope (with Chris Johnstone); Mutual Causality in Buddhism andGeneral Systems Theory; Widening Circles: A Memoir; and In Praise of Mortality: Selections from Rainer Maria Rilke’s Duino Elegies and Sonnets to Orpheus (with Anita Barrows).
Vanessa de Oliveira Andreotti holds a Canada Research Chair in Race, Inequalities and Global Change at the Department of Educational Studies, University of British Columbia in Vancouver, Canada. Drawing on different critiques of colonialism and human exceptionalism, her research examines the interface between historical, systemic and ongoing forms of violence, and the material and existential dimensions of unsustainability within modernity. She is one of the founding members of the Gesturing Decolonial Futures Collective (decolonialfutures.net) and one of the initiators of the In Earth’s Care Network of indigenous communities in Latin America.
Rupert Read is a professor of philosophy at the University of East Anglia. He is author of eleven books, including This Civilisation is Finished (2019) and A Film-Philosophy of Ecology and Enlightenment (2018). He is a former chair of Green House think tank, and a former Green Party of England and Wales councillor, spokesperson, European parliamentary candidate and national parliamentary candidate. He has written for the Guardian, the Independent, the Ecologist and a range of other newspapers and websites.
Skeena Rathor, a Sufi Kashmiri, helped by her three daughters, the family, the community of Stroud and the woodlands, spends time dancing between outward commitments. She works as a district councillor, co-founder of the Compassionate Stroud Project and co-founder of Extinction Rebellion, including the Co-Liberation and Power-fullness Project. Skeena has been teaching body-brain and heart-brain restoration work for 20 years, with a specialist focus on birth, mothering health, child development, breath, trauma and love – possessing thirteen certifications. Grief resulting from relationship losses has led Skeena to be a campaigner, activist and activator since the age of fifteen.
Daniel Rodary, an ecologist, initially studied emperor penguins and worked in the management of international scientific projects (International Council of Science, the Cousteau Society in Sudan) and as a guide-lecturer in polar regions (Antarctica, Spitzbergen, Greenland). Since 2010, he has been a coordinator of reforestation projects with local farmers in Haïti, India and Mexico, as well as an organic farmer in France and then South India. Since 2010, he has given lectures on climate change, planetary boundaries and biomimicry, co-founded Deep Adaptation Auroville in South India and is now involved in Deep Adaptation France (Adaptation radicale).
Pablo Servigne is an agricultural engineer with a PhD in biology (Belgium). He quit the academic world in 2008 to become an author and lecturer. He is the author of many articles and books about collapse, transition, resilience, agroecology and mutual aid, and is now editor-in-chief of the French magazine Yggdrasil. With Raphaël Stevens, he coined the word ‘collapsology’ in 2015 for the transdisciplinary study of the collapse of our civilization and the biosphere.
Charlotte Simpson is in the final stage of an MSc in sustainable food and natural resources. Her current research focuses on sustainable diets, the significance of social and cultural influences on behaviour change, long-term maintenance of behaviour change and the role of education for social transformation in the face of climate breakdown.
Dino Siwek is an independent researcher from Brazil with a background in anthropology and social communication. His work focuses on the interactions between ecological crises and systemic violences and on experimental and counter-intuitive ways of learning that involve embodied practices as a way of finding deeper possibilities of being in and with the world. He is co-founder of the Terra Adentro project.
Matthew Slater builds and runs open-source software for community currencies. His activism touches on various other topics, ranging from researching monetary theory to community building to the politics of software. He co-authored the Money & Society MOOC with Jem Bendell and has contributed to a handful of academic papers.
Sharon Stein is an assistant professor in the Department of Educational Studies at the University of British Columbia. Her research brings critical and decolonial perspectives to the study and practice of internationalization, decolonization, and sustainability in higher education. Through this work, she engages the challenges, complexities and possibilities of addressing the interrelated ecological, cognitive, affective, relational, political and economic dimensions of local and global (in)justice.
Raphaël Stevens is an independent researcher, author and lecturer. He studied business and environmental management before taking an MSc in holistic science at the Schumacher College and Plymouth University. In 2006, he co-founded Greenloop, a consultancy offering support and guidance in circular economy. Associate researcher at the Momentum Institute (FR) since 2011, he is co-author of several books, including Comment tout peut s’effondrer (Seuil, 2015, with P. Servigne), translated into six languages (published by Polity in 2020 as How Everything Can Collapse) and Another End of the World is Possible (Polity, 2021, with P. Servigne and G. Chapelle).
Rene Suša is a postdoctoral researcher in the Department of Educational Studies at the University of British Columbia. His research focuses on critiques of modernity and the modern subject based on postcolonial, decolonial and psychoanalytical thought. More specifically, he is interested in the educational challenges of generatively engaging with the unconscious modern/colonial desires, projections and affective investments that prevent us from expanding our imaginative, cognitive and relational capacities.
Adrian Tait worked for 26 years as a psychoanalytic psychotherapist, also teaching and supervising MRCPsych trainees in Devon. In 2009, he undertook a visiting fellowship at the University of the West of England to help develop and coordinate a global psycho-social response to the climate crisis. This led to the formation in 2013 of the Climate Psychology Alliance (CPA). Adrian has written extensively for the CPA and is active in bringing climate psychology perspectives to a wider audience.
Charlotte von Bülow, PhD, is a senior lecturer in leadership at the Bristol Business School, University of the West of England. She is the Founder of the Crossfields Institute Group (UK) – a state-recognized awarding organization for integrative education, a higher education institute and a consultancy. Charlotte has worked as an educator all her adult life; as a social entrepreneur, consultant and executive coach, she has served individuals, organizations and communities the world over. Her research and publications focus on integrative approaches to education, leadership in uncertainty and complex times and attentional ethics.
IntroductionWhat Next, Now That the Limits Have Been Breached?
Jem Bendell and Rupert Read
Are you confused and concerned about what seems like the disruption or even breakdown of normal life? Do you worry about becoming stuck, not knowing what to do? Do you want to explore with others how to respond creatively at this difficult time? If so, then you share that intention with the contributors to this book. Until recently, most people in modern societies have not had much reason or opportunity to explore what an anticipation of greater societal disruption – or even collapse – might mean for their life choices. It has been a taboo subject, policed by the argument that to even discuss it would be unhelpful to individuals and society. To have any level of anticipation of societal breakdown or collapse, whether from a range of environmental, economic, political or technological factors, has been labelled as pessimism, alarmism, doomism, fatalism or defeatism. Such negative dismissals can discourage us from engaging in this topic any further. Unfortunately, such avoidance could lose us all precious time to explore what can be done and learned at this difficult moment, especially if our aim is to reduce harm while saving more of society and the natural world. It might mean we postpone the opportunity to rethink what is most important to us and align the rest of our lives with that. Therefore, we consider it would be defeatist to not even begin exploring what we can do to help in the face of massive societal disruption.
That is why we believe it is time for a book that discusses various implications of anticipating societal collapse. Deep Adaptationis an agenda and framework for responding to the potential, probable or inevitable collapse of industrial consumer societies, due to the direct and indirect impacts of human-caused climate change and environmental degradation. With the term ‘societal collapse’, we mean an uneven ending of industrial consumer modes of sustenance, shelter, health, security, pleasure, identity and meaning. Rather than an environmental, economic or political collapse, the word ‘societal’ is important as these uneven endings pervade society and challenge our place within it. The term ‘collapse’ does not necessarily mean that suddenness is likely but rather implies a form of breakdown in systems that is comprehensive and cannot be reversed to what it was before. The word ‘deep’ is intended to contrast the agenda with mainstream approaches to adaptation to climate impacts (Klein et al. 2015) by going deeper into the causes and potential responses within ourselves, our organizations and societies. People who engage in dialogue and initiative for deep adaptation believe that societal collapse in most or all countries of the world is likely, inevitable or already unfolding. Typically, such people believe that they will experience this disruption themselves or have already begun to do so, while recognizing that the disruptions may be first and worst in the global South. Deep adaptation describes the inner and outer, personal and collective, responses to either the anticipation or experience of societal collapse, worsened by the direct or indirect impacts of climate change.
The vulnerability of our normal ways of life was highlighted in 2020 when a virus triggered a series of cascading effects beyond its initial health impacts. To begin with, there were shortages of medicines, protective gear and food, then a slowdown of economic activity, domestic political upheavals, diplomatic and geopolitical conflicts, and the creation of large amounts of national debt to reduce, or postpone, economic shock. The sprouting of volunteer-led mutual aid in many locations is an indicator of the capacity of people to respond positively. While Covid-19 has posed a stress test for the globalized economy, it is also a stark reminder of what deeply matters in our daily lives and is a real-time dress rehearsal for future disasters and psychological unease (Read 2020: ch. 26; Gray 2020). When some people consider societal collapse to be an abstract and theoretical matter, it is worth noting that the United Nations has warned us that outbreaks of coronaviruses, including potentially ones more serious than Covid-19, are more likely because of both environmental destruction and climate change (United Nations 2020). That analysis means that disruptions from the indirect impacts of climate change are already being felt by most societies around the world.
To assess the probability and processes of societal collapse is a complex endeavour, as described by expert ‘collapsologists’ in chapter 3 of this book. Such assessments can draw on many disciplines of scholarship, including sociology, economics, politics, psychology, philosophy and agronomy, as well as composite fields such as climate science, environmental studies, futures studies, catastrophic risks, emergency management and disaster reduction (Servigne and Stevens 2020). This complexity therefore means that any commentary on the likelihood of societal collapse will derive from the specialism, mentality, identity and lived experience of the scholar. Most scholars are not experiencing the climate-worsened hunger and displacement that hundreds of millions of people are at the time of our writing (FAO 2018). Despite the inevitable bias towards normality within the many fields of scholarship that could give us an assessment of the likelihood of societal collapse, in recent years more experts have come forward with warnings. One of the fields where such warnings are now coming from is climate science (Moses 2020).
In November 2019, seven leading climate scientists published a review in the journal Nature which said that a collapse of society may be inevitable because nine of the fifteen known global climate tipping points that regulate the state of the planet may have already been activated (Lenton et al. 2019). Soon after, an opinion from five scientists on our climate situation was published in the journal Biosciences and signed by more than 11,000 scientists worldwide as a warning to humanity: ‘The climate crisis has arrived and is accelerating faster than most scientists expected . . . It is more severe than anticipated, threatening natural ecosystems and the fate of humanity . . .’ (Ripple et al. 2019). The reasons why climate change is so dangerous to humanity are described in chapter 2, and the reasons why climate scientists have been conservative in their statement of that risk are explained in chapter 1.
In 2020, two hundred scientists warned of ‘global systemic collapse’ becoming likely due to the way different climate and environmental stressors can interact and amplify each other. They explained that the true situation is not being understood or communicated well enough because ‘many scientists and policy-makers are embedded in institutions that are used to thinking and acting on isolated risks, one at a time’ (Future Earth 2020). Research analysts that are experienced in integrating multiple forms of information on multiple risks are to be found in the financial sector. An internal report by analysts from the largest bank in the United States, JP Morgan, is therefore relevant to the question of whether humanity will make the changes to avoid disaster. They assessed that
to meet the Paris 2ºC objective on the global temperature . . . would require the immediate elimination of 34% of the global coal-fired production capacity. The cost would involve not only the premature scrapping of these coal-fired power stations but also the increased investment in renewables. The end result could be energy shortages and higher electricity prices for consumers. It isn’t going to happen. (Guardian 2020)
Although we can and must increase efforts for significant reductions in carbon emissions and effective natural drawdown of carbon from the atmosphere, the recent science and analysis should not be ignored because it is too painful to consider. Unfortunately, new climate models are predicting much greater climate change than past models did (Johnson 2019). Already we are witnessing temperature changes in air and ocean that are at the extreme end of previous predictions, and with impacts on ecosystems that are in advance of what was anticipated (Nisbet et al. 2019). For instance, in May 2020 the previous 12 months were 1.3 degrees warmer than pre-industrial temperatures.1 Such rapid climate change is a massive stress on ecological and human systems and is not something that humans can stop entirely. We must try to slow it down, but our efforts might not be very successful. Dangerous climate change is therefore in one important sense an unsolvable predicament which in our view will probably, or inevitably, lead to the collapse of industrial consumer societies. It is for this reason that we consider it useful in the title of this book to describe the instability we are creating as ‘climate chaos’ and that we will need to learn to ‘navigate’ varying levels of that chaos, rather than being able to ‘solve’ the ‘problem’ outright. For this is more than a problem, more even than a ‘wicked’ one. It is a tragedy and an ongoing series of disasters that provide a new condition for humankind along with the rest of life on earth (Foster 2015).
Some communities are already experiencing breakdowns due to direct or indirect impacts of climate change, as well as issues relating to epidemics, the failures of capitalism, and racial inequality, to name but a few stressors on societies (Future Earth 2020). More research is being done on assessing when and where societal breakdowns may occur, though that is very difficult to predict and such work could become a distraction from inquiry into the root causes and into rapid meaningful action. With this book, we wish to contribute to the field of inquiry and action that starts from an anticipation of societal collapse. In other words: what if we were actually to look the very real prospect of such collapse in the face, rather than always shying away from it or only attempting to prevent it? What might happen? What might we feel? What might shift? How might our plans and struggles – including perhaps those intended to mitigate the chaos – be transformed or energized?
We know first-hand how it is psychologically challenging to reach the conclusion that there will be massive disruption, or even collapse, of societies around the world, including the ones we live in. Not only is it difficult to allow this outlook into one’s awareness, it is difficult to live with it because to anticipate societal collapse means we feel personally vulnerable as well as afraid for the future of people dear to us. That psychological distress occurs even before we experience specific disruptions from the direct and indirect impacts of a degrading environment and growing public anxieties. The matter of emotional well-being is important within the deep adaptation agenda, as explored in chapter 4 on insights from psychology, as well as in chapter 8 on some of the psycho-spiritual implications. There are particular concerns about children and young people. We are acutely aware of how young people are growing up into a climate-disturbed future. For us, real solidarity with them must include efforts at practical and psychological adaptation to that future, rather than suppressing this difficult agenda. Some of the initial implications for education and schools are discussed in chapter 10.
The concept of deep adaptation and an associated framework for dialogue was created by the transdisciplinary sociologist and co-editor of this book, Professor Jem Bendell. It became popular in a paper released by the University of Cumbria in the United Kingdom (Bendell 2018). That paper was downloaded around a million times within a couple of years and influenced many people to join and lead climate activist groups (Green 2019). To support this movement, the Deep Adaptation Forum was launched in April 2019 to freely connect people who believe that deep adaptation provides a useful framework for them to respond to this predicament.2 The Forum explains an intention to embody and enable loving responses to our predicament where we can help each other prepare in ways that may reduce harm, especially by reducing conflict and trauma. It is founded on a collective leadership philosophy, where generative dialogue is both a key modality and aim (Bendell, Sutherland and Little 2017). To help with that, Deep Adaptation involves a framework of four questions, providing people with a way of exploring those potential changes together. Outlined in chapter 2, they are called the 4Rs. What do we most value that we want to keep and how? That is a question of resilience. What could we let go of so as not to make matters worse? That is a question of relinquishment. What could we bring back to help us in these difficult times? That is a question of restoration. With what and with whom shall we make peace as we awaken to our common mortality? That is a question of reconciliation.
We continue to meet people who believe an anticipation of societal collapse is a credible perspective but who think it is unhelpful to articulate that or work from that basis. Our experience has been the opposite. After concluding that collapse is likely or inevitable, many people become very engaged in social and political action to slow dangerous climate change, reduce impacts, help each other and reverse injustices (Bendell and Cave 2020). Additionally, the more time we have to try to adapt, the more likely we can hold societies together to keep one another safe while cutting and drawing down carbon emissions (Read 2020a, 2020b; Foster et al. 2019).
Some of the resistance to deep adaptation may arise because it represents a fundamental break with the international policy paradigm of the past 30 years. Adopted at the UN in 1987, the concept of sustainable development suggests that it is possible to maintain capitalism while integrating concerns about the environment and society (Foster 2019). The deep adaptation perspective sees the pace and scale of dangerous levels of climate change and ecological degradation to be so fast that neither a reform of capitalism nor of modern society is realistic. Therefore, deep adaptation is a form of ‘post-sustainability’ thinking (ibid.). However, the concept does not equate societal collapse with ‘the end of the world’ or with near-term human extinction. It does not imply lessening our efforts at carbon cuts (mitigation) and drawdown (natural sequestration) but implies that efforts on those aims within the current system must pragmatically be considered likely to continue to fail to significantly reduce atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases; so now we must prepare for societal breakdown and ultimate collapse. If we fail to prepare for such failure, then we are preparing to fail ourselves and our children even more.
By inviting attention to whether an assumption of the continuation of modern society is tenable, a deep adaptation perspective suggests rethinking mainstream approaches to climate change adaptation (CCA). The most resonance with mainstream climate adaptation is in the field of ideas and practices becoming known as ‘transformative adaptation’. Such approaches anticipate the need for systemic change in modes of production, trade and lifestyle to both reduce carbon and be less reliant on the stability of existing ecosystems (Coulter, Serrao-Neumann and Coiacetto 2019). In future, we anticipate a coming together of transformative and deep adaptation as a complement to bolder attempts at carbon cuts and drawdown.
In any future dialogue between people working with different analyses of the predicament we are in, it will be important to recognize how ‘collapse anticipation’ produces a distinctly original paradigm for reflection, learning and action. So much of what people have hitherto taken for granted can be questioned. Therefore, the chapters in this book are merely illustrative of an agenda which offers no simple answers but hopefully provides ways of reaching meaningful answers for your own context.
In Part I, the predicament of facing societal collapse is presented in three chapters. We explain in chapter 1 how, for decades, the field of climate science has been conservative in its assessment of the risks facing humanity. The situation is now far worse than tends to be reported in individual climate studies or by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In chapter 2, a revised version of the original deep adaptation paper by Dr Jem Bendell presents the case for human-triggered climate change having become unavoidably dangerous and explains why the contemporary environmental movement and profession have remained in denial of that reality. The original paper was intended for people researching, educating and practising within the corporate sustainability field, and the chapter retains the original focus and style. In chapter 3, Dr Pablo Servigne and a group of scholars who focus on the science of societal collapse, or ‘collapsology’, provide an overview of the state of knowledge to make the case that collapse anticipation is a credible starting point for both research and policy development.
In Part II, the ‘shifts in being’ that can occur – and be supported – as we anticipate societal collapse are explored in five chapters. In chapter 4, psychologist and co-founder of the Climate Psychology Alliance Dr Adrian Tait describes the ways in which the psychotherapy profession must – and is beginning to – change in response to growing public eco-distress. In chapter 5, Jem Bendell tackles the subject of how we can avoid making our bad situation worse by sharing insights on the ideology that he believes is at the root of our predicament. He explains how this destructive ideology has been mainstreamed and maintained by the monetary system. A similar theme is developed further in chapter 6 by Rene Suša and her colleagues, who work on developing and articulating their analysis of indigenous persons in the global predicament. They argue that people have become addicted to patterns of thought which will hamper our abilities to respond to collapse, and they offer some ideas to help break those addictions. How to apply these critiques in new ways of organizing interactions on deep adaptation is important. Therefore, in chapter 7, the senior facilitator of the Deep Adaptation Forum joins Jem Bendell to explain the rationale and some modalities for facilitating connection and conversation about our predicament. This part of the book is completed in chapter 8 by environmental philosopher Joanna Macy and her colleague Professor Sean Kelly. In a more informal and heartfelt discussion of the topic, they draw on ancient wisdom to provide some reflections on how we might discover strength during the difficult times ahead.
In Part III, some of the ‘shifts in doing’ that occur when people anticipate societal collapse are explored in four chapters. In chapter 9, renowned leadership scholar Professor Jonathan Gosling explores possible ways of leading in response to increasing turbulence in society. He explains how traditional understandings and enactments of leadership will be unhelpful. Instead, leadership of adaptation is diverse and sometimes hardly recognizable as leadership. One of its key effects, he argues, is enabling equanimity in anxiety-provoking circumstances. In chapter 10, education specialist Dr Charlotte von Bülow explores new approaches to schooling and education that are necessary in the face of the climate emergency. In chapter 11, by drawing on his experience as a spokesperson and political advisor with the activist group Extinction Rebellion, as well as his work as a political philosopher, Professor Rupert Read shares his ideas on the future of politics and activism in the face of societal collapse. He explains how the systemic economic and political drivers of the ecological and climate crisis mean that a radical and transformative political agenda is essential for the future of deep adaptation. In chapter 12, community currency expert Matthew Slater and Extinction Rebellion founder member Skeena Rathor explain why and how ‘relocalization’ of economies and societies is an important part of the response to climate chaos. They describe how future relocalization efforts could benefit from incorporating a co-liberation philosophy and supporting international action for policies that enable localization and climate justice.
As a first edited collection on this huge topic, we realize that the coverage of issues and the diversity of voices will be insufficient. We are particularly aware that at the time of writing, like most readers of this book, we are not involved in high-intensity situations of societal disruption and collapse. Over time, we intend to both hear and support more diverse voices and participate in more practical solidarity for people who are suffering the consequences of societal disruption and collapse. Therefore, in the concluding chapter, we discuss a range of live issues within the emerging field of deep adaptation.
As you read this book, it is likely you will be witnessing situations where lifestyles, livelihoods and outlooks are being disrupted. Those disruptions will probably be reported in most mass media without foregrounding our degrading environment. Looking behind the headlines, there is credible evidence that all manner of disruptions, including rising prices, coronaviruses, financial instability, mental illness, displaced persons and xenophobia, are being made worse by the declining health and stability of our natural world. Unfortunately, the Club of Rome was right. In 1972, their bestselling report on the Limits to Growth predicted that humanity would be experiencing difficulties now due to our impact on the natural world (Meadows et al. 1972). Unless more people today make the connections between the many difficulties faced and ask questions about how modern humans have generated them, societies will lose the opportunity to learn and change. We intend this book to help you make fuller sense of the many disruptions around you so you can invite your friends, colleagues and community members to join you in reconsidering the fundamentals of our societies and our relationship with the natural world. Whatever happens, the opportunity to learn from this unfolding global disaster is still ours to seize.
References
Bendell, J. (2018) ‘Deep Adaptation: A Map for Navigating Climate Tragedy’. IFLAS Occasional Paper 2. Available at: http://www.lifeworth.com/deepadaptation.pdf
Bendell, J. (2019) ‘Doom and Bloom? Adapting Deeply to Likely Collapse’, in C. Farrell, A. Green, S. Knights and W. Skeaping (eds), This is Not a Drill: Extinction Rebellion Handbook, 1st edn. London: Penguin Random House.
Bendell, J. and Cave, D. (2020) ‘Does Anticipating Societal Collapse Motivate Pro-Social Behaviours?’ IFLAS website. Available at: http://iflas.blogspot.com/2020/06/does-anticipating-societal-collapse.html
Bendell, J., Sutherland, N. and Little, R. (2017) ‘Beyond Unsustainable Leadership: Critical Social Theory for Sustainable Leadership’. Sustainability Accounting, Management and Policy Journal 8(4): 418–44.
Coulter, L., Serrao-Neumann, S. and Coiacetto, E. (2019) ‘Climate Change Adaptation Narratives: Linking Climate Knowledge and Future Thinking’. Futures 111: 57–70.
FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) (2018) Disasters Causing Billions in Agricultural Losses, with Drought Leading the Way. Press release, 15 March.
Foster, J. (2015) After Sustainability. Abingdon: Earthscan/Routledge.
Foster, J. (ed.) (2019) Post-Sustainability: Tragedy and Transformation. London: Routledge.
Foster, J. et al. (2019) Facing Up to Climate Reality. London: London Publishing Partnership/Green House.
Future Earth (2020) ‘Our Future on Earth 2020’. Available at: www.futureearth.org/publications/our-future-on-earth
Gray, J. (2020 ‘Why This Crisis is a Turning Point in History’. Available at: https://www.newstatesman.com/international/2020/04/why-crisis-turning-point-history
Green, M. (2019) ‘Extinction Rebellion: Inside the New Climate Resistance’. Financial Times Magazine. Available at: https://www.ft.com/content/9bcb1bf8-5b20-11e9-9dde-7aedca0a081a
Guardian (2020) ‘JP Morgan Economists Warn Climate Crisis is Threat to Human Race’. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/21/jp-morgan-economists-warn-climate-crisis-threat-human-race
Johnson , J. (2019) ‘“Terrifying” New Climate Models Warn of 6–7°C of Warming by 2100 if Emissions Not Slashed’. Common Dreams. Available at: https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/09/17/terrifying-new-climate-models-warn-6-7degc-warming-2100-if-emissions-not-slashed
Klein, R. J. T. et al. (2015) ‘Adaptation Opportunities, Constraints, and Limits’, in C. B. Field (ed.), Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects, 1st edn. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Lenton, T. M. et al. (2019) ‘Climate Tipping Points – Too Risky to Bet Against: The Growing Threat of Abrupt and Irreversible Climate Changes Must Compel Political and Economic Action on Emissions’. Nature 575: 592–5.
Meadows, D. H., Meadows, D. L., Randers, J. and Behrens, W. W. (1972) The Limits to Growth. New York: Universe Books.
Moses, A. (2020) ‘“Collapse of Civilisation is the Most Likely Outcome”: Top Climate Scientists’. Voice of Action. Available at: https://voiceofaction.org/collapse-of-civilisation-is-the-most-likely-outcome-top-climate-scientists/
Nisbet, E. G. et al. (2019) ‘Very Strong Atmospheric Methane Growth in the Four Years 2014–2017: Implications for the Paris Agreement’. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 33(3): 318–42. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GB006009
Read, R. (2020a) ‘Theses on the Coronavirus Crisis’, in Samuel Alexander (ed.), Extinction Rebellion: Insights from the Inside. Melbourne: Simplicity Institute Publishing. Available at: https://249897.e-junkie.com/product/1668648
Read, R. (2020b) ‘The Coronavirus Gives Humanity One Last Chance – but for What Exactly?’ Compass online. Available at: https://www.compassonline.org.uk/the-coronavirus-gives-humanity-one-last-chance-but-for-what-exactly/
Ripple, W. J., Wolf, C., Newsome, T. M., et al. (2019) ‘World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency’. BioScience 70(1): 8–12. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biz088
Servigne, P. and Stevens, R. (2020) How Everything Can Collapse. Cambridge: Polity Press.
United Nations (2020) ‘Unite Human, Animal and Environmental Health to Prevent the Next Pandemic – UN Report’. Press release, 6 July. Available at: https://www.unenvironment.org/news-and-stories/press-release/unite-human-animal-and-environmental-health-prevent-next-pandemic-un
1.
https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-may-2020
2.
See
www.deepadaptation.info
Part IThe Predicament
1What Climate Science Can and Cannot Tell Us About Our Predicament
Jem Bendell and Rupert Read
Where we are after 125 years of climate science
Climate science was probably born in 1896 with the first, and still valid, calculation of how much the earth would warm if atmospheric CO2 content were to double from pre-industrial values (Arrhenius 2009 [1896]). Given the means of the day, without the use of electronic computers, the Swedish physicist Svante Arrhenius, famous for his contributions to thermodynamics and the understanding of chemical reactions, calculated that the earth would warm by about 4°C. His value still lies within the range of modern estimates, produced by hugely complicated computer models (Slingo 2017). Arrhenius even calculated that regions near the poles would warm much more than those near the equator, something that is still seen as a major finding of climate science.
Awareness of humanity’s vulnerability to changes in climate was high at the close of the nineteenth century. Arrhenius’s native Scandinavia and much of northern Europe had only recently come out of the Little Ice Age, a cold period that had led to frequent crop failure and starvation (Lee 2009). His hope was therefore that increasing amounts of ‘carbonic acid’ in the air – atmospheric carbon dioxide – would bring about better weather and increased crop yields for the colder regions of the earth.
Fast forward one and a quarter centuries, and the predicted climate heating has become obvious to almost everyone (WMO 2019). Even if we did not have the benefits of modern climate science, we would still be able to recognize that we are in a situation never seen by humanity since modern civilization started with the onset of agriculture. Essentially nineteenth-century technologies such as thermometers, the collection of data on emissions of carbon-containing fuels, in combination with Arrhenius’s science, already tell us a complete story: while rates of carbon dioxide emissions from human activities have been rising more or less exponentially (Global Carbon Project 2020), with no signs that this will change any time soon (Betts et al. 2020; Le Quéré et al. 2020), the earth is warming at an accelerating rate (NOAA 2020a). The climate system seems to be out of control, and human activity is the cause.
Human interest in understanding the geological past has created a different branch of climate science a long time ago, now called paleo-climatology. On its own, paleo-climatology can already tell us a compelling story of where we are and further help us understand the scale of our calamity. By drilling deep holes into Antarctic ice and analysing the composition of tiny bubbles found in them, researchers have been able to construct a continuous record of atmospheric carbon dioxide going back 800,000 years (Masson-Delmotte et al. 2010). The data show that CO2 levels have fluctuated between around 180 parts per million (ppm) during ice ages and 280 ppm during warm periods. Only once did they briefly increase slightly above 300 ppm. At the time of writing, the last estimate of global mean CO2 stood at 415 ppm, with an annual growth rate of almost 3 ppm over the last five years (NOAA 2020b). The last time atmospheric CO2 was about as high as now was around three million years ago, during the Middle Pliocene (Lunt et al. 2008). Even that was only a temporary excursion, and we have to go back a staggering 25 million years to find values exceeding 500 ppm (Pagani et al. 2005), a value that at current trends we will reach in about 30 years.
When a kettle is switched on, the water in it does not heat up instantaneously, but there is a delay. The same happens with the earth’s climate: according to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2019a), 90 per cent of the heat from the enhanced greenhouse effect is absorbed by the oceans’ water. This means that the warming we have seen so far lags behind the steep rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, and that even if we suddenly managed to stop the rise, warming will continue (Huntingford, Williamson and Nijsse 2020). Earth’s surface is now over 1°C warmer than during the late nineteenth century (NOAA 2020a), which is comparable to or slightly warmer than during the last geological warm period between 10,000 and 5,000 years ago (Marcott et al. 2013). But during that time the warming was caused by changes in the way the earth circles and wobbles around the sun, with the result that tropical lands were slightly cooler than today. Nowadays, the (over)heating effect is seen universally across the globe, and as such differs decidedly from any climate fluctuations since the end of the last ice age more than 10,000 years ago (Barbuzano 2019; Neukom et al. 2019).
Currently the enhanced greenhouse effect is created only to about two-thirds by CO2 and one third by other gases, of which about half by methane.1 Countering this warming to a certain extent are several other human-caused effects, notably from atmospheric pollution through aerosols, which cause some cooling (Myhre et al. 2013). These cooling effects probably approximately cancel out the warming effect of the non-CO2 greenhouse gases. CO2, however, is by far the most important greenhouse gas because its lifetime vastly exceeds almost all of the other greenhouse gases or aerosols. A question of substantial theoretical value is what would happen if we not only prevented a further rise of CO2 but stopped all emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases tomorrow. Because the oceans and land tend to take up more than half of human-made CO2 emissions (Global Carbon Project 2020), such an instantaneous net-zero balance of man-made carbon fluxes would lead to some drawdown of CO2 by natural sinks, and a lowering of atmospheric CO2 levels. The extent of the drawdown, however, is by no means understood and could easily be overestimated. Forests are responsible for a large part of that sink (Global Carbon Project 2020), but are increasingly being fragmented and damaged (Grantham et al. 2020). Some recent research also suggests that we already observe a declining efficiency of the sinks (Wang et al. 2020). Furthermore, even if such lowering occurs, it may not lead to a cessation of heating: because of the possible acceleration of overheating once the ‘global dimming effect’ (from aerosols) is reduced (Xu, Ramanathan and Victor 2018); and because of vicious climate feedbacks that may already be underway (Lenton et al. 2019).
How much more overheat will result if CO2 emissions alone stopped depends on both how rapidly the gas is removed from the atmosphere, and on the long-term climate response to the remaining CO2 level. Model results (Matthews and Zickfeld 2012) indicate that in such a scenario, two-thirds of the human-caused excess CO2 – i.e. above the pre-industrial level of 280 ppm – would still remain in the atmosphere after 190 years. For the case of stopping emissions in 2020 at a level of 415 ppm, this translates to more than 370 ppm by the year 2200. The earth during that time would continue to warm, but probably only by a few tenths of a degree. If all other greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions also stopped, the result might well be similar. However, the assumption that it would be excludes at least two further possibilities – possible stronger than expected carbon cycle feedback that we cannot reliably quantify, leading to higher than expected CO2 levels (Lenton et al. 2019); and the possibility of a higher long-term sensitivity of the earth’s temperature to CO2 (Bjordal et al. 2020).
Because of the limitations of models, a more prudent approach is to derive climate sensitivity from past climates. Most commonly, this is based on the temperature and CO2 changes during ice-age/warm-period fluctuations (Hansen et al. 2013). Results based on this approach generally support the model results (Sherwood et al. 2020). The problem, however, is that the earth is already in a different state from any time during those glacial cycles. Climate sensitivity could be higher in a warmer state due to positive climate system feedbacks, or tipping mechanisms, not yet quantified, which is the basis of the deeply alarming ‘Hothouse Earth’ hypothesis (Steffen et al. 2018). Support for this hypothesis comes from estimates for the Pliocene warm period, when CO2 was between 365 and 415 ppm and temperatures about 3°C warmer than during the pre-industrial era (Pagani et al. 2010; Sherwood et al. 2020). According to those data – from the last time earth was in a similar climate state to now – an immediate stop of CO2 emissions would still lead to substantial warming after today: about another 1°C for the higher end of the CO2 estimate for the Pliocene, and more than 2°C at the lower end.2
The mechanisms that may have led to such a high climate sensitivity are unknown, but there is some evidence that Arctic sea-ice feedback could have contributed. It is possible that even if we stopped emitting CO2 now, we could still experience an ice-free Arctic in the near future that could lock in significant warming for decades to come because of additional energy absorbed by the ice-free ocean in the long Arctic summer days. In the latest round of climate model simulations, those models that correctly simulate past sea-ice loss tend to have a higher climate sensitivity than usually assumed. Remarkably, even models driven by an extremely low-emissions scenario, approaching a stopnow scenario, still show an ice-free Arctic before 2050 (SIMIP Community 2020). The principal mechanism here is that even at declining CO2 concentrations, excess heat stored in the oceans will only decline very slowly (Solomon et al. 2010).
It is important to stress that the scenario just discussed is largely speculative and only serves to illustrate how far we have already proceeded on a route to irreversibly altering our planet’s climate state. Computer simulations of possible future climate states using certain scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions can be used to gain a general impression of how this trend might continue – as there is still no evidence of a lowered CO2 level due to climate policy (Knorr 2019; Le Quéré et al. 2020).
A high-profile publication by a group of US scientists (Burke et al. 2018) confirms that we are indeed in the process of driving our climate system well into uncharted territory. Different to the approach followed by the IPCC (Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2018), the group did not try to assess the impacts of projected changes directly by assessing impacts of past changes or using computer models. Instead, they compared expected climate warming patterns derived from model simulations with what we know from the
