El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate E-Book
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- Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
- Kategorie: Wissenschaft und neue Technologien
- Serie: Geophysical Monograph Series
- Sprache: Englisch
Comprehensive and up-to-date information on Earth’s most dominant year-to-year climate variation
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean has major worldwide social and economic consequences through its global scale effects on atmospheric and oceanic circulation, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and other natural systems. Ongoing climate change is projected to significantly alter ENSO's dynamics and impacts.
El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate presents the latest theories, models, and observations, and explores the challenges of forecasting ENSO as the climate continues to change.
Volume highlights include:
- Historical background on ENSO and its societal consequences
- Review of key El Niño (ENSO warm phase) and La Niña (ENSO cold phase) characteristics
- Mathematical description of the underlying physical processes that generate ENSO variations
- Conceptual framework for understanding ENSO changes on decadal and longer time scales, including the response to greenhouse gas forcing
- ENSO impacts on extreme ocean, weather, and climate events, including tropical cyclones, and how ENSO affects fisheries and the global carbon cycle
- Advances in modeling, paleo-reconstructions, and operational climate forecasting
- Future projections of ENSO and its impacts
- Factors influencing ENSO events, such as inter-basin climate interactions and volcanic eruptions
The American Geophysical Union promotes discovery in Earth and space science for the benefit of humanity. Its publications disseminate scientific knowledge and provide resources for researchers, students, and professionals.
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Table of Contents
Cover
Title Page
Copyright Page
List of Contributors
Acknowledgments
Preface
Section I: Introduction
1 Introduction to El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate
1.1. INTRODUCTION
1.2. HISTORICAL BACKGROUND
1.3. RECENT PROGRESS AND CURRENT CHALLENGES
1.4. ENSO IN A CHANGING CLIMATE
1.5. CONCLUSION
ENSO INDICES
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
REFERENCES
2 ENSO in the Global Climate System
2.1. THE CLIMATE SYSTEM
2.2. THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND MEAN ANNUAL CYCLE
2.3. EL NIÑO‐SOUTHERN OSCILLATION
2.4. TELECONNECTIONS AND MODES OF VARIABILITY
2.5. CLIMATE CHANGE
2.6. IMPACTS
REFERENCES
Section II: Observations
3 ENSO Observations
3.1. INTRODUCTION
3.2. A BRIEF HISTORY
3.3. ENSO VARIABILITY
3.4. DATA PRODUCTS
3.5. OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC REANALYSES
3.6. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
REFERENCES
4 ENSO Diversity
4.1. INTRODUCTION
4.2. CHARACTERISTICS OF ENSO DIVERSITY
4.3. EQUATORIAL DYNAMICAL PROCESSES UNDERLYING ENSO DIVERSITY
4.4. PRECURSORS AND PREDICTABILITY OF ENSO DIVERSITY
4.5. LOW‐FREQUENCY VARIATIONS OF ENSO DIVERSITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
4.6. ENSO DIVERSITY REPRESENTATION IN CLIMATE MODELS
4.7. CONCLUSIONS
APPENDIX: INDICES OF EL NIÑO DIVERSITY
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
REFERENCES
5 Past ENSO Variability
5.1. CLIMATIC CONTEXT FOR PALEO‐ENSO RECONSTRUCTION
5.2. OBSERVATIONAL CONSTRAINTS ON PALEO‐ENSO BEHAVIOR
5.3. QUANTITATIVE APPROACHES TO ENSO RECONSTRUCTION
5.4. PALEO‐CONSTRAINTS ON ENSO DYNAMICS
5.5. DISCUSSION
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
REFERENCES
APPENDIX: DATA CITATIONS
Section III: Theories and Dynamics
6 Simple ENSO Models
6.1. INTRODUCTION
6.2. COUPLED LINEAR INSTABILITY
6.3. RECHARGE OSCILLATOR (RO) AND BJERKNES‐WYRTKI‐JIN (BWJ) INDEX
6.4. FACTORS CONTROLLING ENSO AMPLITUDE, PERIODICITY, PHASE‐LOCKING, ASYMMETRY, AND NONLINEAR RECTIFICATION
6.5. OUTLOOK
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
A BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE CZ MODEL
REFERENCES
7 ENSO Irregularity and Asymmetry
7.1. INTRODUCTION
7.2. IRREGULARITY
7.3. ENSO AMPLITUDE ASYMMETRY
7.4. ENSO EVOLUTION ASYMMETRY
7.5. CONCLUSION AND DISCUSSION
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
REFERENCES
8 ENSO Low‐Frequency Modulation and Mean State Interactions
8.1. INTRODUCTION
8.2. INTRINSICALLY GENERATED MODULATION OF ENSO
8.3. EXTERNALLY DRIVEN MODULATION OF ENSO
8.4. ENSO AND THE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION
8.5. ENSO DECADAL MODULATION IN OCEAN ENERGETICS
8.6. PREDICTION OF ENSO DECADAL MODULATION
8.7. ENSO MODULATION AND THE GLOBAL WARMING HIATUS
8.8. CONCLUSIONS
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
REFERENCES
Section IV: Modeling and Prediction
9 ENSO Modeling: History, Progress, and Challenges
9.1. HISTORY OF ENSO SIMULATION IN COMPLEX MODELS
9.2. BENEFITS OF A HIERARCHY OF MODELS
9.3. USING MODELS FOR ENSO UNDERSTANDING
9.4. EVALUATING ENSO IN MODELS
9.5. CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
REFERENCES
10 ENSO Prediction
10.1. HISTORY OF ENSO FORECASTING
10.2. ENSO PREDICTABILITY
10.3. ENSO PREDICTION SKILL
10.4. DECADAL VARIATION IN ENSO AND ITS SKILL
10.5. RECENT ENSO PREDICTION CHALLENGES
10.6. CONCLUDING REMARKS
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
REFERENCES
Section V: Remote and External Forcing
11 ENSO Remote Forcing
11.1. INTRODUCTION
11.2. INDIAN OCEAN
11.3. ATLANTIC OCEAN
11.4. EXTRATROPICAL PACIFIC
11.5. DISCUSSION
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
REFERENCES
12 The Effect of Strong Volcanic Eruptions on ENSO
12.1. INTRODUCTION
12.2. VOLCANIC FORCING OF CLIMATE
12.3. PALEOCLIMATE EVIDENCE
12.4. MODEL EVIDENCE AND DYNAMICS
12.5. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
REFERENCES
13 ENSO Response to Greenhouse Forcing
13.1. INTRODUCTION
13.2. FORCED CHANGES IN BACKGROUND CLIMATE
13.3. ELUSIVE PROJECTIONS OF ENSO
13.4. PROCESS‐BASED ENSO PROJECTIONS
13.5. UNCERTAINTIES AND MODEL BIASES
13.6. SUMMARY AND CONCLUDING REMARKS
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
REFERENCES
Section VI: Teleconnections and Impacts
14 ENSO Atmospheric Teleconnections
14.1. INTRODUCTION
14.2. TELECONNECTIONS TO OTHER OCEAN BASINS
14.3. TELECONNECTIONS TO LAND REGIONS
14.4. ENSO TELECONNECTIONS IN A WARMER WORLD
14.5. SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
REFERENCES
15 ENSO Oceanic Teleconnections
15.1. INTRODUCTION
15.2. DIRECTLY FORCED CHANGES IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN CIRCULATION
15.3. EXTRATROPICAL TELECONNECTIONS IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN VIA PLANETARY WAVES
15.4. INTERBASIN OCEANIC TELECONNECTION
15.5. MIXED ATMOSPHERIC‐OCEANIC TELECONNECTIONS
15.6. CONCLUSIONS: PROJECTED CHANGES IN OCEANIC PATHWAYS RELATED TO ENSO CHANGES IN A WARMING WORLD
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
REFERENCES
16 Impact of El Niño on Weather and Climate Extremes
16.1. INTRODUCTION
16.2. EXTREME CLIMATE IMPACTS
16.3. PREDICTABILITY: HOW AND HOW WELL DO WE PREDICT ENSO’S EXTREME IMPACTS?
16.4. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
REFERENCES
17 ENSO and Tropical Cyclones
17.1. INTRODUCTION
17.2. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC (WNP) TROPICAL CYCLONES
17.3. CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC (CEP) TCs
17.4. NORTH ATLANTIC TCs
17.5. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) TCs
17.6. SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE TCs
17.7. TROPICAL CYCLONES AND CLIMATE CHANGE
17.8. CONCLUSION AND DISCUSSION
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
REFERENCES
18 ENSO‐Driven Ocean Extremes and Their Ecosystem Impacts
18.1. INTRODUCTION
18.2. EXTREMES IN SEA LEVEL AND SEAWATER TEMPERATURE
18.3. IMPACTS ON SHALLOW‐WATER MARINE ECOSYSTEMS
18.4. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
REFERENCES
19 ENSO Impact on Marine Fisheries and Ecosystems
19.1. INTRODUCTION
19.2. THE HUMBOLDT CURRENT SYSTEM
19.3. THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AND TROPICAL TUNA FISHERIES
19.4. THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC
19.5. THE CALIFORNIA CURRENT ECOSYSTEM
19.6. THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SUBPOLAR GYRE
19.7. THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC
19.8. THE SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
19.9. DISCUSSION
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
REFERENCES
20 ENSO and the Carbon Cycle
20.1. INTRODUCTION
20.2. CARBON CYCLE VARIABILITY AND ITS CORRELATION WITH ENSO
20.3. PROCESSES INVOLVED IN ENSO‐CARBON CYCLE INTERACTIONS
20.4. IMPACTS OF MAJOR EL NIÑO EVENTS ON THE GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE
20.5. ROLE OF ENSO IN PREDICTING THE FUTURE BEHAVIOR OF THE EARTH SYSTEM
20.6. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
REFERENCES
Section VII: Closing
21 ENSO in a Changing Climate: Challenges, Paleo‐Perspectives, and Outlook
21.1. INTRODUCTION
21.2. SEASONAL CYCLE–ENSO INTERACTIONS
21.3. FORCED ENSO CHANGES VS. INTERNAL VARIABILITY, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN ENSO PROJECTIONS
21.4. CONCLUDING REMARKS AND FUTURE PERSPECTIVES
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
REFERENCES
Glossary
Index
End User License Agreement
List of Tables
Chapter 4
Table 4.1 Classification of El Niño events based on some of the commonly used...
Chapter 5
Table 5.1 Paleoclimate archives of ENSO. “Analytical intensity” refers to the...
Table A1 Data sources for the records in Figure 5.1, together with essential ...
Chapter 6
Table A Definitions and values of model variables and parameters
Table 6.1 The annual mean background state parameters, feedback coefficients,...
Table 6.2 The coefficients of nonlinear deterministic quadratic and cubic ter...
Table 6.3 The coefficients of subgrid deterministic linear, quadratic, and cu...
Chapter 7
Table 7.1 Composite mixed layer temperature anomaly budget analysis during th...
Chapter 11
Table 11.1 Niño‐3.4 index and various precursor indices for individual El Niñ...
Table 11.2 Niño‐3.4 index and various precursor indices for individual La Niñ...
Table 11.3 Correlation and partial correlation with Niño‐3.4 SST at ND(0)J(1)...
Chapter 12
Table 12.1 Details of the ENSO reconstructions employed in this work, includi...
Table 12.2 The summary list of identified large tropical volcanic events from...
Table 12.3 Ensemble average standard deviation change of monthly mean SST (°C...
Chapter 20
Table 20.1 Regression coefficients for Equation (20.1) calculated using obser...
Table 20.2 Estimating the contribution of El Niño to the annual CO
2
increment...
Table 20.3 Estimating the contribution of El Niño to the annual CO
2
increment...
Table 20.4 Summary of forecast and observed CO
2
concentrations and rises for ...
List of Illustrations
Chapter 1
Figure 1.1 Schematic of La Niña, normal, and El Niño conditions in the tropi...
Figure 1.2 Typical impacts of El Niño (top) and La Niña (bottom) on global w...
Figure 1.3 Images of typical ENSO impacts: Flooding in Peru (top) during the...
Figure 1.4 Global SST anomalies for December 2015, relative to a 30‐year (19...
Figure 1.5 The pattern of annual mean sea level pressure anomalies associate...
Figure 1.6 Schematic of the long‐term average large‐scale atmospheric Walker...
Figure 1.7 Comparison of surface wind, SST, and precipitation anomalies for ...
Figure 1.8 Estimated changes in annual global mean surface temperatures (°C,...
Figure 1.9 Global mean surface temperature projections under different Repre...
Figure 1.A1 Geographic distribution of ENSO index regions (boxes) and the lo...
Figure 1.A2 Niño‐3.4 SST anomalies and the Southern Oscillation Index, 1950–...
Chapter 2
Figure 2.1 Mean sea surface temperature (SST), total column water vapor (TCW...
Figure 2.2 Schematic precipitation for January (left) and July (right) mean ...
Figure 2.3 Cross section along the equator of temperatures within the ocean ...
Figure 2.4 Schematic of the tropical Pacific Ocean for the top 200 m. The eq...
Figure 2.5 Correlations with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), based on ...
Figure 2.6 Top: SOI based on Trenberth (1984). Anomalies of monthly sea leve...
Figure 2.7 A cross section from 5°N to 5°S along the equator illustrates the...
Figure 2.8 Over the tropical Pacific Ocean where high SSTs exist, warm, mois...
Chapter 3
Figure 3.1 Distribution of in situ ocean measurements from various observati...
Figure 3.2 (a) Five‐month running mean values of the Niño‐3.4 SST index sinc...
Figure 3.3 December surface winds and SSTs (a–c) and upper ocean temperature...
Figure 3.4 Charts for December 2015 anomalies in (a) surface winds and SST, ...
Figure 3.5 Anomalies averaged between 2°N and 2°S for January 2015–December ...
Figure 3.6 Time series of Niño‐3.4 SST (blue line) and anomalous ocean heat ...
Figure 3.7 Time series of 5‐day zonal wind anomalies averaged between 2°N an...
Figure 3.8 Comparison of subsurface temperatures along the equator between 5...
Figure 3.9 Lead time in months at which NINO3.4 SST anomaly correlation drop...
Figure 3.10 (a) Multivariate ENSO index computed as in Wolter and Timlin (20...
Chapter 4
Figure 4.1 Interannual SST anomalies during December‐January‐February (DJF) ...
Figure 4.2 Equatorial SST anomaly profiles averaged over 2°S–2°N during wint...
Figure 4.3 Composites of anomalous SST (shaded, °C, same in each row), SSH (...
Figure 4.4 (a) and (c) show the time series of the EP
new
and CP
new
indices, ...
Figure 4.5 December–February (DJF) mean equatorial Pacific (10°S–10°N) SSTA ...
Figure 4.6 Optimal two‐season precursors (c and d) of the (a) E and (b) C mo...
Figure 4.7 Composites of equatorial SSTA profiles averaged in 5°S–5°N for EP...
Chapter 5
Figure 5.1 Spatiotemporal coverage of the paleo‐ENSO records cited in this s...
Figure 5.2 Reproducibility of paleo‐ENSO reconstructions using bivalve and c...
Figure 5.3 The Niño‐3.4 index as reconstructed by GraphEM (Emile‐Geay et al....
Figure 5.4 Reconstructed surface temperature with two different methods/prox...
Figure 5.5 Spectral density of Niño‐3.4 in PMIP3 simulations and the reconst...
Chapter 6
Figure 6.1 Schematic diagrams for the Cane‐Zebiak (CZ) model. (a) Climatolog...
Figure 6.2 Instability of the leading ENSO mode as a function of the (a, b) ...
Figure 6.3 Schematic diagrams for the leading ENSO mode under weak (a–d) and...
Figure 6.4 Equatorial Pacific annual mean climatology and relevant anomalies...
Figure 6.5 Time series (left panels) and scatter plots (right panels) from t...
Figure 6.6 Time series (left panels) and scatter plots (right panels) from t...
Figure 6.7 The Bjierknes‐Wyrtki‐Jin index and its individual components. (a)...
Figure 6.8 Time series of linear and nonlinear deterministic dynamics and no...
Figure 6.9 Schematic representation of RO linear deterministic, total determ...
Figure 6.10 (a) Probability distribution of temperature for the observations...
Figure 6.11 (a) Schematic representation of an Arnold tongue diagram for the...
Figure 6.12 (a) Observed Niño‐3 index and (b) time series of the model simul...
Chapter 7
Figure 7.1 Transition to chaos of the CZ model as the seasonal forcing is in...
Figure 7.2 Schematic diagram for nonlinear processes responsible for asymmet...
Figure 7.3 (a) Time evolution of Niño‐3 SSTA. Purple line indicates the 2015...
Figure 7.4 Scatter diagram for each El Niño since 1979 as a function of prec...
Figure 7.5 Horizontal distribution of the normalized SST skewness from (a) o...
Figure 7.6 Time series of the Niño‐3.4 index overlaid from June(–1) to June(...
Figure 7.7 Longitude–time sections of SST (°C, color shading), surface wind ...
Chapter 8
Figure 8.1 (a) Interannual variations in sea surface temperatures (SST) in t...
Figure 8.2 Examples of ENSO modulations in 100‐year simulations of eastern e...
Figure 8.3 SST (°C) averaged over the Niño3 region (150°W–90°W, 5°S–5°N) fro...
Figure 8.4 (a) The period (in years) and (b) growth rates (in 1/year) of the...
Figure 8.5 (a) Observed multidecadal trends in SST (colors; °C/decade), surf...
Figure 8.6 Tropical Atlantic warming as a cause for zonal and cross‐equatori...
Figure 8.7 Spatial pattern and temporal evolution of the PDO based on the ER...
Figure 8.8 Variations in (a) Niño3 index, (b) perturbation available potenti...
Figure 8.9 Perfect‐model reforecasts (Wittenberg et al., 2014) of two 30‐yea...
Figure 8.10 Modeled variations in (a) equatorial SST anomalies averaged with...
Chapter 9
Figure 9.1 Process‐based evaluation of ENSO in coupled models (see section 9...
Figure 9.2 A set of experiment where the same WWB (a.k.a. WWE) is applied at...
Figure 9.3 Anomalous percentage of CMIP5 historical simulation members with ...
Figure 9.4 Values simulated by the CMIP5 models for (a) climatological mean ...
Figure 9.5 Links between ENSO anomaly patterns and the background climatolog...
Chapter 10
Figure 10.1 A timeline of events in ENSO forecasting.
Figure 10.2 The first ENSO Diagnostics Advisory issued at NOAA Climate Predi...
Figure 10.3 The forecast lead‐time (
y
‐axis) when Niño‐3.4 index skill exceed...
Figure 10.4 Predictions of the Niño‐3.4 index from the North American Multi‐...
Figure 10.5 Year‐to‐year variations of model hindcast/forecast skill in the ...
Figure 10.6 (top panel) Predictions of the Niño‐3.4 index from the North Ame...
Figure 10.7 Log skill score (LSS) from hindcasts (1981–2010) of the NCEP Cli...
Chapter 11
Figure 11.1 (a) First and (b) second EOF of detrended SST anomalies in the t...
Figure 11.2 Adapted from Dayan et al. (2015). Rainfall (colors) and wind str...
Figure 11.3 Schematic diagram of the influence of the (a) North Tropical Atl...
Figure 11.4 SST (contours) and surface wind (vectors) anomalies regressed on...
Chapter 12
Figure 12.1 Observed relative sea surface temperature (SST) response to the ...
Figure 12.2 Volcanic forcing and surface temperatures. (a) Evolution of volc...
Figure 12.3 (a) Multireconstruction ENSO composite mean around volcanic even...
Figure 12.4 Composite ensemble mean seasonal average surface temperature ano...
Figure 12.5 Time series of CMIP5 model ensemble mean composite relative Niño...
Figure 12.6 Hovmoller plot of relative sea surface temperature anomalies (SS...
Figure 12.7 Percentile 90% ranges of model ensemble composites of the relati...
Chapter 13
Figure 13.1 Schematic of tropical Pacific mean‐state changes due to greenhou...
Figure 13.2 Greenhouse‐warming induced change in sea surface temperature and...
Figure 13.3 Observed climate extremes and greenhouse‐warming induced changes...
Figure 13.4 Eastern Pacific El Niño events defined by SST anomalies, and the...
Figure 13.5 Percentage change in the frequency of major disruptions to preci...
Chapter 14
Figure 14.1 ENSO atmospheric teleconnections: Schematic of global circulatio...
Figure 14.2 Nonlinear ENSO teleconnections. Left panels: (a) An atmospheric ...
Figure 14.3 Air temperature and precipitation histograms: Distribution of (a...
Figure 14.4 ENSO temperature response: (a) Regression of Nov‐to‐Jan 2 m air ...
Figure 14.5 ENSO precipitation response: (a) Regression of Nov‐to‐Jan precip...
Chapter 15
Figure 15.1 Schematic of atmospheric and oceanic pathways and processes in t...
Figure 15.2 Changes to the Pacific Ocean currents and tropical cell during E...
Figure 15.3 (a) SEC transport anomalies relative to 400 m (Sv) entering into...
Figure 15.4 Oceanic teleconnection along the coast of Peru. (a) Propagation ...
Figure 15.5 Interannual variability of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) acro...
Figure 15.6 Projected changes in annual mean model transport of the major cu...
Chapter 16
Figure 16.1 Expected changes in precipitation regionally during an El Niño e...
Figure 16.2 Scatter plots of peak drought extent (% of tropical land area, f...
Figure 16.3 Probability of a change in simulated streamflow worldwide during...
Figure 16.4 Streamflow distributions for climatology (43 years, black dots a...
Figure 16.5 This plot shows the relationship between summer monsoonal rainfa...
Chapter 17
Figure 17.1 (a) Historic global TC tracks (based on the best track data of t...
Figure 17.2 Tropical cyclone track density anomaly maps during May–November ...
Figure 17.3 (a) Annual number of TCs in the WNP (1960–2016). Red circles: El...
Figure 17.4 Tropical cyclone tracks in El Niño years (left panels, in red) a...
Figure 17.5 (a) Trajectories of tropical cyclones in the central (left of th...
Figure 17.6 (a) Tracks of Atlantic hurricanes at category 3+ intensity in th...
Figure 17.7 Tropical cyclone track density in 2° × 2° gridded boxes for (a) ...
Figure 17.8 Projected future changes in TC density defined as the difference...
Chapter 18
Figure 18.1 Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of global sea level...
Figure 18.2 Marine heatwave (MHW) properties and the impact of ENSO. Local M...
Figure 18.3 Categories for three high‐impact marine heatwaves associated wit...
Figure 18.4 Photo images of coral bleaching and mortality in the central equ...
Figure 18.5 El Niño events with the greatest heat stress. Both panels show w...
Chapter 19
Figure 19.1 Conceptual model of pelagic ecosystem changes associated with El...
Figure 19.2 Impact of ENSO on Pacific skipjack tuna population and fisheries...
Figure 19.3 Summary of forcings (top) and impacts (bottom) during a strong E...
Figure 19.4 Adapted from Kilduff et al. (2015). Spatial correlation maps of ...
Figure 19.5 (a) Major oceanographic feature in the northwest Pacific Ocean. ...
Figure 19.6 Results of the general linear models (GLMs) fitting catch per un...
Figure 19.7 First EOF of 20°C isotherm depth (explaining 20% of the total va...
Chapter 20
Figure 20.1 Components of the global carbon cycle on average and in a year w...
Figure 20.2 Relationships between annual CO
2
increments at Mauna Loa and sea...
Figure 20.3 Relationships between components of change in the carbon cycle a...
Figure 20.4 Anomalies in regional land‐atmosphere CO
2
fluxes (gC m
‐2
y...
Figure 20.5 Twelve‐month detrended, running mean anomalies of NPP
stem
(black...
Figure 20.6 Annual emissions of CO
2
from fire (a) globally and (b) by region...
Figure 20.7 (a) Time series of CO
2
growth rate (CGR: black) and terrestrial ...
Figure 20.8 Time‐longitude plots of (a) SST, (b)
p
CO
2
, and the (c) Oceanic N...
Figure 20.9 Use of interannual variability in CO
2
growth rate and tropical t...
Chapter 21
Figure 21.1 Past and projected changes in ENSO (or interannual) variability ...
Figure 21.2 ENSO/seasonal cycle interaction in an orbitally forced climate m...
Figure 21.3 Seasonal cycle and ENSO variance changes in future CMIP5 simulat...
Figure 21.4 Open ENSO problems and future directions. Indicative list of pot...
Figure 21.5 ENSO impacts and interactions. Illustration of the core concepts...
Guide
Cover
Table of Contents
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Editors
Michael J. McPhadenAgus SantosoWenju Cai
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Library of Congress Cataloging‐in‐Publication Data
Names: McPhaden, Michael J., editor.Title: El Niño southern oscillation in a changing climate / Michael J. McPhaden, Agus Santoso, Wenju Cai.Description: First edition. | Hoboken, NJ : Wiley‐American Geophysical Union, 2020. | Series: Geophysical monograph series | Includes index. | Includes bibliographical references and index.Identifiers: LCCN 2020028098 (print) | LCCN 2020028099 (ebook) | ISBN 9781119548126 (cloth) | ISBN 9781119548119 (adobe pdf) | ISBN 9781119548157 (epub)Subjects: LCSH: El Niño Current. | Climatic changes. | Ocean‐atmosphere interaction.Classification: LCC GC296.8.E4 E58 2020 (print) | LCC GC296.8.E4 (ebook) | DDC 551.5/24648–dc23LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2020028098LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2020028099
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LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS
Soon‐Il AnDepartment of Atmospheric SciencesYonsei UniversitySeoul, Republic of Korea
Karumuri AshokCentre for Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric SciencesUniversity of HyderabadHyderabad, India
Magdalena A. BalmasedaEuropean Centre for Medium‐Range Weather ForecastsReading, UK
Arnaud BertrandInstitut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD),MARBEC (Univ Montpellier, CNRS, Ifremer, IRD)Sète, France
Richard A. BettsMet Office Hadley CentreExeter, UK; andGlobal Systems InstituteUniversity of ExeterExeter, UK
Julien BoucharelLEGOS‐CNRS, University of ToulouseToulouse, France
Chantelle A. BurtonMet Office Hadley CentreExeter, UK
Wenju CaiCentre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research(CSHOR)CSIRO Oceans and AtmosphereHobart, Tasmania, Australia; andKey Laboratory of Physical Oceanography/Institute for Advanced Ocean Studies,Ocean University of China andQingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and TechnologyQingdao, China
Suzana J. CamargoLamont‐Doherty Earth ObservatoryColumbia UniversityPalisades, New York, USA
Antonietta CapotondiUniversity of Colorado, CIRESBoulder, Colorado, USA; andNOAA Physical Sciences LaboratoryBoulder, Colorado, USA
Johnny C. L. ChanGuy Carpenter Asia‐Pacific Climate Impact CentreSchool of Energy and EnvironmentCity University of Hong KongHong Kong, China
Savin ChandCentre for Informatics and Applied OptimizationFederation University AustraliaBallarat, Victoria, Australia
Ping ChangDepartment of Oceanography and Department of Atmospheric SciencesTexas A&M University College Station, Texas, USA
Han‐Ching ChenDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, SOESTUniversity of Hawai’i at MānoaHonolulu, Hawai’i, USA
Danielle C. ClaarSchool of Aquatic and Fisheries Sciences University of WashingtonSeattle, Washington, USA
Kim M. CobbDepartment of Earth Sciences & TechnologyGeorgiaInstitute of TechnologyAtlanta, Georgia, USA
Julia E. ColeDepartment of Earth and Environmental SciencesUniversity of MichiganAnn Arbor, Michigan, USA
Mat CollinsCollege of Engineering, Mathematics, and Physical SciencesUniversity of ExeterExeter, UK
Sophie CravatteLaboratoire d’Etudes en Géophysique et OcéanographieSpatiales (LEGOS), IRD, CNES, CNRS, UPSToulouse, France
Clara DeserNCAR, Climate and Global Dynamics DivisionBoulder, Colorado, USA
Boris DewitteCentro de Estudios Avanzado en Zonas Áridas(CEAZA);Departamento de Biología, Facultad de Ciencias delMar, Universidad Católica del Norte;Millennium Nucleus for Ecology and SustainableManagement of Oceanic Islands (ESMOI)Coquimbo, Chile; andLaboratoire d’Etudes en Géophysique etOcéanographie Spatiales (LEGOS), IRD, CNES,CNRS, UPSToulouse, France
Dietmar DommengetSchool of Earth, Atmosphere and EnvironmentARC Centre of Excellence for Climate ExtremesMonash UniversityMelbourne, Victoria, Australia
Yan DuState Key Laboratory of Tropical OceanographySouth China Sea Institute of Oceanology ChineseAcademy of SciencesGuangzhou, Guangdong, China;University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing, China; andSouthern Marine Science and Engineering GuangdongLaboratoryGuangzhou, Guangdong, China
Mary ElliotUniversité de Nantes, LPG (UMR6112)Nantes, France
Julien Emile‐GeayDepartment of Earth SciencesUniversity of Southern CaliforniaLos Angeles, California, USA
Alexey V. FedorovEarth and Planetary Sciences, Yale UniversityNew Haven, Connecticut, USA; andLOCEAN‐IPSL, Sorbonne UniversityParis, France
Richard A. FeelyNOAA Pacific Marine Environmental LaboratorySeattle, Washington, USA
Severine FournierNASA/Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadena, California, USA
Catherine GanterAustralian Bureau of MeteorologyMelbourne, Victoria, Australia
Licheng GengDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, SOESTUniversity of Hawai’i at MānoaHonolulu, Hawai’i, USA
Alexander GershunovScripps Institution of OceanographyUniversity of California–San DiegoLa Jolla, California, USA
Lisa GoddardInternational Research Institute for Climate and SocietyColumbia UniversityPalisades, New York, USA
Eric GuilyardiLOCEAN‐IPSL, CNRS/Sorbonne University/IRD/MNHNParis, France; andNCAS‐Climate, University of ReadingReading, UK
Yoo‐Geun HamDepartment of OceanographyChonnam National UniversityGwangju, Republic of Korea
Michiya HayashiDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, SOESTUniversity of Hawai’i at MānoaHonolulu, Hawai’i, USA;Now at Center for Global Environmental ResearchNational Institute for Environmental StudiesTsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
Alistair J. HobdayCSIRO Oceans and AtmosphereHobart, Tasmania, Australia
Neil J. HolbrookInstitute for Marine and Antarctic StudiesUniversity of Tasmania Hobart, Tasmania, Australia;andAustralian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate ExtremesUniversity of Tasmania Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
Shineng HuLamont‐Doherty Earth ObservatoryColumbia UniversityPalisades, New York, USA
Fei‐Fei JinDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, SOESTUniversity of Hawai’i at MānoaHonolulu, Hawai’i, USA
Chris D. Jones
Met Office Hadley CentreExeter, UK
Christina KaramperidouDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, SOESTUniversity of Hawai’i at MānoaHonolulu, Hawai’i, USA
Myriam KhodriLOCEAN‐IPSL, IRD/Sorbonne Université/CNRS/MNHNParis, France
Hidetada KiyofujiNational Research Institute of Far Seas Fisheries JapanFisheries Research and Education AgencyShimizu, Shizuoka, Japan
Phil KlotzbachDepartment of Atmospheric ScienceColorado State UniversityFort Collins, Colorado, USA
Jong‐Seong KugDivision of Environmental Science & EngineeringPohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH)Pohang, Republic of Korea
Michelle L. L’HeureuxNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationNWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction CenterCollege Park, Maryland, USA
Tong LeeNASA/Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadena, California, USA
Sun‐Seon LeeCenter for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic ScienceBusan, Republic of Korea; andPusan National UniversityBusan, Republic of Korea
Patrick LehodeyCollecte Localisation Satellite, 11 rue Hermès31520 Ramonville St Agne, France
Matthieu LengaigneLOCEAN‐IPSL, Sorbonne Universités/UPMC‐CNRS‐IRD‐MNHNParis, France; andMARBEC, University of Montpellier, CNRS,IFREMER, IRDSète, France
Aaron F. Z. LevineDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences University of WashingtonSeattle, Washington, USA
Tim LiDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences/IPRCUniversity of Hawai’i at MānoaHonolulu, Hawai’i, USA
I‐I LinDepartment of Atmospheric SciencesNational Taiwan UniversityTaipei, Taiwan
Jing‐Jia LuoInstitute for Climate and Application Research (ICAR)/CICFEM/KLME/ILCECNanjing University of Information Science andTechnologyNanjing, China
Nicola MaherMax Planck Institute for MeteorologyHamburg, Germany
Sam McClatchie38 Upland Rd, HuiaAuckland 0604, New Zealand
Shayne McGregorSchool of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, andARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes,Monash UniversityMelbourne, Victoria, Australia
Kathleen L. McInnesClimate Science Centre, CSIRO Oceans and AtmosphereAspendale, Victoria, Australia
Michael J. McPhadenNOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental LaboratorySeattle, Washington, USA
Christophe E. MenkèsInstitut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)ENTROPIE (IRD/CNRS/Univ. La Réunion)Nouméa, New Caledonia
Matthew NewmanCooperative Institute for Research in the EnvironmentalSciencesUniversity of Colorado; andNOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences DivisionBoulder, Colorado, USA
Masamichi OhbaCentral Research Institute of Electric Power IndustryChiba, Japan
Yuko M. OkumuraInstitute for Geophysics, Jackson School of GeosciencesThe University of Texas at AustinAustin, Texas, USA
Eric C. J. OliverDepartment of OceanographyDalhousie UniversityHalifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
Christina M. PatricolaClimate and Ecosystem Sciences DivisionLawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryBerkeley, California, USA; andIowa State UniversityAmes, Iowa, USA
Francesco S. R. PausataDepartment of Earth and Atmospheric SciencesUniversity of Quebec in MontrealMontreal, Quebec, Canada
Graham PillingThe Pacific Community (SPC), BP D5Noumea, New Caledonia
Jeffrey Polovina196 Pauahilani Pl.Kailua, Hawai’i, USA
Scott PowerAustralian Bureau of MeteorologyMelbourne, Victoria, Australia; andSchool of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, andARC Centre of Excellence for Climate ExtremesMonash UniversityMelbourne, Victoria, Australia
Regina R. RodriguesDepartment of OceanographyFederal University of Santa CatarinaFlorianópolis, Santa Catarina, Brazil
Agus SantosoARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes andClimate Change Research CentreUniversity of New South WalesSydney, New South Wales, Australia; andCentre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research(CSHOR),CSIRO Oceans and AtmosphereHobart, Tasmania, Australia
Alexander Sen GuptaClimate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre ofExcellence for Climate ExtremesUniversity of New South WalesSydney, New South Wales, Australia
Janet SprintallScripps Institution of OceanographyUniversity of California–San DiegoLa Jolla, California, USA
Samantha StevensonBren School of Environmental Science &ManagementUniversity of California Santa BarbaraSanta Barbara, California, USA
Timothy N. StockdaleEuropean Centre for Medium‐Range WeatherForecastsReading, UK
Malte F. StueckerCenter for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic ScienceBusan, Republic of Korea; andPusan National UniversityBusan, Republic of KoreaNow at Department of Oceanography andInternational Pacific Research CenterUniversity of Hawai’i at MānoaHonolulu, Hawai’i, USA
Ken TakahashiServicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología delPerú—SENAMHILima, Peru
Andrèa S. TaschettoClimate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre ofExcellence for Climate ExtremesUniversity of New South WalesSydney, New South Wales, Australia
Sulian ThualInstitute of Atmospheric Sciences/Department ofAtmospheric and Oceanic SciencesFudan UniversityShanghai, China
Axel TimmermannCenter for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic ScienceBusan, Republic of Korea; andPusan National UniversityBusan, Republic of Korea
Michael K. TippettDepartment of Applied Physics and AppliedMathematicsColumbia UniversityNew York, USA
Desiree TommasiInstitute of Marine SciencesUniversity of California Santa CruzSanta Cruz, California, USA; and NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science CenterLa Jolla, California, USA
Kevin E. TrenberthNational Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulder, Colorado, USA
Eli TzipermanDepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences andSchool of Engineering and Applied Sciences Harvard UniversityCambridge, Massachusetts, USA
Caroline C. UmmenhoferDepartment of Physical Oceanography Woods HoleOceanographic InstitutionWoods Hole, Massachusetts, USA; andARC Centre of Excellence for Climate ExtremesUniversity of New South WalesSydney, New South Wales, Australia
Jerome VialardLOCEAN‐IPSL, CNRS/Sorbonne Université/IRD/MNHNParis, France
Bin WangDepartment of Atmospheric SciencesUniversity of Hawai’iHonolulu, Hawai’i, USA
Guojian WangCentre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research(CSHOR)CSIRO Oceans and AtmosphereHobart, Tasmania, Australia; andKey Laboratory of Physical Oceanography/Institute forAdvanced Ocean StudiesOcean University of China and Qingdao NationalLaboratory for Marine Science and TechnologyQingdao, China
Matthew J. WidlanskyJoint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric ResearchSchool of Ocean and Earth Science and TechnologyUniversity of Hawai’i at MānoaHonolulu, Hawai’i, USA
Andy J. WiltshireMet Office Hadley CentreExeter, UK; andGlobal Systems Institute, University of ExeterExeter, UK
Andrew T. WittenbergNOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryPrinceton, New Jersey, USA
Lixin WuKey Laboratory of Physical Oceanography/Institute forAdvanced Ocean Studies, Ocean University of Chinaand Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Scienceand TechnologyQingdao, China
Ruihuang XieKey Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and WavesInstitute of OceanologyChinese Academy of SciencesQingdao, China
Sang‐Wook YehDepartment of Marine Science and ConvergentTechnologyHanyang UniversityAnsan, Republic of Korea
Jin‐Yi YuDepartment of Earth System ScienceUniversity of California–IrvineIrvine, California, USA
Kyung‐Sook YunCenter for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic ScienceBusan, Republic of Korea; andPusan National UniversityBusan, Republic of Korea
Xuebin ZhangCSIRO Oceans and AtmosphereHobart, Tasmania, Australia
Sen ZhaoDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, SOESTUniversity of Hawai’i at MānoaHonolulu, Hawai’i, USA
Feng ZhuDepartment of Earth SciencesUniversity of Southern CaliforniaLos Angeles, California, USA
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Each of the 21 chapters in this book was peer reviewed by at least two experts in the field before acceptance for publication. We would like to recognize those individuals, listed below, who participated in this process. We are indebted to them for their willingness to offer thoughtful and constructive critiques of submitted manuscripts. Their efforts have assured that material presented in this book is up to date, of the highest quality, and of the greatest relevance.
Soon‐Il An
Andrew Lenton
Magdalena Balmaseda
Michelle L’Heureux
Julien Boucharel
Janice Lough
Antonietta Capotondi
Jing‐Jia Luo
Matthieu Carré
Shayne McGregor
Bo Christiansen
Christophe Menkès
Mat Collins
Kathy Pegion
Boris Dewitte
Scott Power
Pedro DiNezio
Hamish Ramsay
Dietmar Dommenget
Harun Rashid
Alexey Fedorov
Alex Sen Gupta
Ming Feng
Toshiaki Shinoda
Yoo‐Geun Ham
Georgiy Stenchikov
Neil Holbrook
Malte Stuecker
Shineng Hu
Ken Takahashi
Sarah Ineson
Pascal Terray
Nathaniel Johnson
Caroline Ummenhofer
Karumuri Ashok
Kevin Walsh
Jin‐Soo Kim
Yan Xue
Andrew King
Jin‐Yi Yu
Mojib Latif
Dongliang Yuan
PREFACE
El Niño (EN) and the Southern Oscillation (SO) constitute a richly textured scientific puzzle that has fascinated scientists for well over a century. They were originally thought to be unrelated; however, the Norwegian‐born meteorologist Jacob Bjerknes realized in the mid‐1960s that El Niño and the Southern Oscillation were oceanic and atmospheric manifestations of the same phenomenon, which we now refer to collectively as ENSO. ENSO is spawned in the tropical Pacific, but its reach is global. It alters the general circulation of the atmosphere from one season to the next through far‐field teleconnections, leading to droughts, floods, heat waves, and other extreme weather events across our planet. These natural hazards have widespread impacts on human and natural systems, including agriculture, public health, power generation and consumption, financial markets, transportation, tourism, freshwater resources, civil conflict, wildfires, fisheries, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and biodiversity.
The character of ENSO, the warm phase of which is referred to as El Niño and the cold phase La Niña, depends on the long‐term average background climatic conditions on which it develops. However, because of human activities since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the mid‐18th century, these background conditions have been changing at a pace that has greatly accelerated in recent decades. We have come to appreciate just how profound these changes are, thanks to five Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessments since 1990. The most recent of these assessments in 2013‐2014 leaves no doubt: “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal … human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of green‐house gases are the highest in history.” Greenhouse gas emissions moreover show no sign of abating in the near term. It is natural to ask then whether the character of ENSO has changed already, whether it will in the future, and if so, how.
This book grew out of a realization that, while there are several excellent treatises available focusing on ENSO dynamics, its climate impacts, and its history, there has been no comprehensive examination of ENSO in a changing climate and what it means for society. This book is designed to fill that gap. Our purpose is to review the current state of knowledge regarding ENSO variability, predictability, and impacts, and how a changing climate may affect them. Emphasis is on developments over the past 20 years, since the last extensive review of ENSO research was published as a collection of papers in the Journal of Geophysical Research in 1998. Those papers appeared in the aftermath of the 1997–1998 El Niño, the most extreme El Niño event in the instrumental record thus far. Since then, we have experienced another extreme El Niño in 2015–2016, different in character but equally consequential, providing further impetus to summarize recent advances in ENSO science.
Given ENSO’s profound effects on society and the environment, our intent is to reach a broad audience of experts and nonspecialists alike. The goal is to provide authoritative information on a subject of great scientific interest and practical value, at the same stimulating further research on many important outstanding issues. The book is unique in scope, encompassing a wide range of topics related to ENSO that heretofore have not been covered extensively in a single volume. We begin with an introductory chapter on the ENSO cycle and its global impacts, the history of foundational ideas and watershed events that propelled ENSO to a position of prominence in the study of Earth system science, and why ENSO in a changing climate is such an urgent problem today. This is followed in chapter 2 by an overview of ENSO in the global climate system. We then describe instrumental observations of ENSO variability, event diversity, and paleo‐reconstructions of ENSO in the distant past (chapters 3–5). Next, we discuss theories of ENSO dynamics and evolution (chapters 6 and 7) and the modulation of ENSO on decadal time scales (chapter 8). Computer modeling and prediction are covered in chapters 9 and 10. How climate variability outside the tropical Pacific, volcanic eruptions, and rising greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere affect ENSO are covered chapters 11–13. Atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections are treated in chapters 14 and 15. The impacts of ENSO on weather and climate extremes, tropical cyclones, ocean extremes (e.g. marine heatwaves, coral bleaching, and sea level rise), fisheries and marine ecosystems, and the global carbon cycle are described in chapters 16–20. The book concludes with a supplemental analysis and interpretation of paleo‐reconstructions to highlight some key unresolved issues (chapter 21). A glossary is provided at the end to define many of the technical terms used in this book.
The book focuses on fundamental concepts for which there is a broad consensus of expert opinion. However, the science of ENSO in a changing climate is far from settled so that, as in any field where cutting‐edge ideas continue to emerge, differences in interpretation of the same evidence may be found on certain topics. Readers should recognize that these instances on the pages of this book are an indicator that the field is healthy and advancing through robust debate.
This book would not have been possible without the effort of many individuals. First and foremost are the many outstanding scientists who contributed to writing the various chapters. It has been an enjoyable and rewarding experience working with them to bring this collective effort to fruition. We are also indebted to the reviewers who dedicated their time and expertise to provide constructive and critical reviews for chapters on which they were not an author. Their efforts contributed to the high quality of scholarship and balanced perspectives presented in this book. We have listed these reviewers on a separate page to recognize their critical involvement in the process.
We would also like to acknowledge support from the Centre of Southern Hemisphere Ocean Research (CSHOR) for sponsoring a symposium and author workshop on ENSO under greenhouse warming in Hobart, Australia, in January–February 2019 (https://cshor.csiro.au/news/cshor‐enso‐science‐symposium/) to review the latest scientific advances and coordinate inputs to the various chapters. We thank Leonie Wyld, Benjamin Ng, and Guojian Wang of CSHOR for their assistance in organizing these events and in facilitating coordination among authors. We also thank Evelyn Ong for her help in putting together the list of 98 contributing authors to the book. MJM would like to thank the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Organization (NOAA) for its support; AS and WC wish to acknowledge the support of CSHOR and the Earth System and Climate Change Hub of the Australian Government’s National Environment Science Program (NESP). Finally, we would like to express our sincere appreciation to Rituparna Bose, Emily Bae, Nithya Sechin, Bobby Kilshaw, Vimali Joseph and the copyediting team of Wiley for their help in publishing this book.
Michael J. McPhadenNOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, Washington, USA
Agus SantosoARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, AustraliaCentre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
Wenju CaiCentre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania, AustraliaKey Laboratory of Physical Oceanography/Institute for Advanced Ocean Studies, Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, China
Section IIntroduction
1Introduction to El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate
Michael J. McPhaden1, Agus Santoso2,3, and Wenju Cai3,4
1NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, USA
2ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
3Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
4Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography/Institute for Advanced Ocean Studies, Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, China
ABSTRACT
El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring fluctuation of the climate system that is generated in the tropical Pacific through interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere. It is the strongest year‐to‐year climate variation on the planet, with environmental and societal consequences felt worldwide. ENSO warm events (El Niño) and cold events (La Niña) are occurring in the context of a global climate system that is rapidly changing through human activities that have raised heat‐trapping greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere to historically unprecedented levels. As a result, the planet has warmed, and it will continue to warm at a rate dependent on future greenhouse gas emissions. This raises questions about whether climate change has affected the ENSO cycle already, whether it will in the future, and if so, how. Here, we briefly describe ENSO and its impacts; highlight the history of ideas and events that have shaped our understanding of ENSO; discuss current challenges in ENSO research; and address why ENSO in a changing climate is such an urgent problem in Earth system science today.
1.1. INTRODUCTION
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is generated in the tropical Pacific through interactions between the atmosphere and ocean, mediated by surface wind and sea surface temperature (SST) feedbacks (Figure 1.1). It is the most energetic year‐to‐year variation of the climate system on Earth, with ENSO warm events (El Niño) and cold events (La Niña) occurring roughly every 2–7 years. ENSO events alter the global atmospheric circulation and patterns of weather variability worldwide (Figure 1.2; Yeh et al., 2018), with far‐reaching effects on human and natural systems (McPhaden et al., 2006). Floods, droughts, heat waves, and other extreme events associated with both warm and cold phases of ENSO have major impacts on agricultural production, food security, freshwater resources, public health, power generation, and economic vitality in many nations (Figure 1.3). ENSO can also disrupt the normal functioning of marine and terrestrial ecosystems, pelagic fisheries, and the global carbon cycle. The most recent major El Niño, the first of the 21st century and one of the strongest on record, occurred in 2015–2016 (Figure 1.4; L’Heureux et al., 2017; Santoso et al., 2017), with widespread impacts that affected millions of people around the globe.
Figure 1.1 Schematic of La Niña, normal, and El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific. Arrows indicate the directional sense of circulation in the atmosphere and ocean. Focusing on normal conditions in the top right panel first, the atmospheric circulation cell characterized by rising air masses, deep atmospheric convection, and heavy rainfall over warm surface waters of the western Pacific and descent over cooler surface waters of the eastern Pacific is referred to as the Walker Circulation. Equatorial upwelling transports cold water upward from the ocean interior to create a “cold tongue” in sea surface temperature that extends all the way from the coast of South America to the international date line (green and blue shades). To the west of the cold tongue lies the western Pacific “warm pool” (orange and red shades), which are the warmest waters in the open ocean on Earth. The thermocline is a region of rapid vertical temperature change that separates the warm upper ocean from the cold deep interior; its tilt in the east‐west direction is related to the strength of the trade winds. When the trade winds weaken during El Niño (bottom panel), the warm pool shifts eastward, the thermocline flattens out, and upwelling is reduced in the cold tongue. The unusually warm surface waters then feed back to the atmosphere to cause further weakening of the trade winds. As the central and eastern Pacific warm up, the ascending air masses that lead to deep atmospheric convection and heavy rainfall in the western Pacific migrate eastward with the warm water. Air flow into the convective center from the west causes the trade winds to weaken further, which then leads to more surface warming. In this way, the atmosphere and the ocean become locked in a reinforcing positive feedback loop in which weakening winds and warming sea surface temperatures continue to amplify. The termination of El Niño is brought about by delayed negative feedbacks involving ocean dynamical processes that eventually return the system to normal or sometimes cause it to overshoot into cold La Niña conditions (top left panel). During La Niña, intensified trade winds create a steeper westward tilt to the thermocline, more intense upwelling in the cold tongue, and a warm pool displaced further to the west. The detailed processes that determine the fluctuations between normal, El Niño, and La Niña phases of the ENSO cycle are a major focus of this book.
Figure 1.2 Typical impacts of El Niño (top) and La Niña (bottom) on global weather patterns during the peak season of development in December–February (after Ropelewski & Halpert, 1987; Courtesy of NOAA/Climate Prediction Center).
Figure 1.3 Images of typical ENSO impacts: Flooding in Peru (top) during the 1997–1998 El Niño (courtesy of the University of Piura); (middle) drought in New South Wales, Australia, early in the 2018–2019 El Niño (photo credit: Graham Jepson); and (bottom) the Thomas wildfire in Southern California in December 2017, during a La Niña winter (photo credit: Kari Greer).
Figure 1.4 Global SST anomalies for December 2015, relative to a 30‐year (1981–2010) climatological average, based on the Reynolds et al. (2002) blended satellite and in situ data product.
As our understanding and ability to predict ENSO has evolved over the past few decades, so too has the climate system itself. Human activities, through the combustion of fossil fuels and deforestation, have raised heat‐trapping greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere to unprecedented levels since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the mid‐18th century. These alterations in atmospheric chemistry have caused the planet to warm, as evident in the rise of global and regional surface air temperatures, melting glaciers, disappearing Arctic sea ice, ocean heat uptake, sea level rise, more extreme weather events, and other indicators of systematic environmental change such as habitat loss and species extinctions (IPCC, 2013). We have entered the Anthropocene (Crutzen & Stoermer, 2000
