Flood Risk Science and Management E-Book

• Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
• Kategorie: Wissenschaft und neue Technologien
• Sprache: Englisch

Seitenzahl: 1265

Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2010

Beschreibung

Approaches to avoid loss of life and limit disruption and damage from flooding have changed significantly in recent years. Worldwide, there has been a move from a strategy of flood defence to one of flood risk management. Flood risk management includes flood prevention using hard defences, where appropriate, but also requires that society learns to live with floods and that stakeholders living in flood prone areas develop coping strategies to increase their resilience to flood impacts when these occur. This change in approach represents a paradigm shift which stems from the realisation that continuing to strengthen and extend conventional flood defences is unsustainable economically, environmentally, and in terms of social equity. Flood risk management recognises that a sustainable approach must rest on integrated measures that reduce not only the probability of flooding, but also the consequences. This is essential as increases in the probability of inundation are inevitable in many areas of the world due to climate change, while socio-economic development will lead to spiralling increases in the consequences of flooding unless land use in floodplains is carefully planned. Flood Risk Science and Management provides an extensive and comprehensive synthesis of current research in flood management; providing a multi-disciplinary reference text covering a wide range of flood management topics. Its targeted readership is the international research community (from research students through to senior staff) and flood management professionals, such as engineers, planners, government officials and those with flood management responsibility in the public sector. By using the concept of case study chapters, international coverage is given to the topic, ensuring a world-wide relevance.

Leseprobe

Contents

Cover

Title Page

Copyright

Preface

Acknowledgements

Contributors

Foreword

Acronyms/Glossary of terms

Part 1: Introduction

Chapter 1: Setting the Scene for Flood Risk Management

The Changing Context of Modern Flood Risk Management

Characteristics of Modern Flood Risk Management

Flood Risk Management Decisions

Responding to Change

Policy and Human Dimensions of Flood Risk Management

A Blueprint for Modern Flood Risk Management

References

Part 2: Land Use and Flooding

Chapter 2: Strategic Overview of Land Use Management in the Context of Catchment Flood Risk Management Planning

Strategic Approach to Flood Risk Management Under Changing and Uncertain Conditions

Historical Context: Runoff Generation and Routing in Changing Landscapes and the Evidence for Impacts

Strategic Research Framework

Multiscale Experimentation in Support of Modelling and Prediction

Modelling, Predicting Impacts and Vulnerability Mapping

Discussion and Conclusions

References

Chapter 3: Multiscale Impacts of Land Management on Flooding

Introduction

The Pontbren Multiscale Experiment

Multiscale Modelling

Model Regionalization

Summary and Conclusions

Acknowledgements

References

Chapter 4: Managed Realignment: A Coastal Flood Management Strategy

Introduction

Setting Scheme Objectives

Selecting a Site for Realignment

Designing the Scheme

Obtaining Planning Approval and Consents

Undertaking the Construction Work

Monitoring and Evaluating Scheme Performance

Conclusions

Online Resources

References

Chapter 5: Accounting for Sediment in Flood Risk Management

Abstract

Background

Stream Power Screening Tool

River Energy Audit Scheme (REAS)

Sediment Impact Accounting Method embedded in Hydraulic Engineering Centre River Analysis System (HEC-RAS/SIAM)

Hydraulic Engineering Centre, River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) Version 4.0

iSIS Sediment and Issues in One-Dimensional Sediment Modelling

Cellular Automaton Evolutionary Slope and River Model (CAESAR)

Closure

Acknowledgements

References

Chapter 6: A Measured Step Towards Performance-Based Visual Inspection of Flood Defence Assets

Background

Aims and Objectives

Existing Method of Visual Inspection for Asset Condition

A Performance-Based Methodology for Visual Inspection

The Condition Indexing Process

Case Study

Site-Based Trials

Summary

References

Part 3: Flood Forecasting and Warning

Chapter 7: Advances in the Remote Sensing of Precipitation Using Weather Radar

Introduction

Multi-Parameter Radar and Dual-Polarization Measurements

Estimation of Precipitation Using Weather Radar

Algorithms to Estimate Rain from Radar Measurements

Problems Associated with the Estimation of Precipitation

Conclusions

Acknowledgement

References

Chapter 8: Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Real-Time Flood Forecasting

Abstract

Introduction

Integrating Fuzzy and Probabilistic Uncertainty

Learning Algorithms

Classification of Weather Radar Images

Time Series Modelling

Conclusions

References

Chapter 9: Real-Time Updating in Flood Forecasting and Warning

Introduction

Catchment Models

Recursive State and Parameter Updating

The Model and Its Parametric Identifiability

Data Assimilation and Adaptive Forecasting: An Illustrative Tutorial Example

Conclusions

Acknowledgements

References

Chapter 10: Coupling Meteorological and Hydrological Models for Real-Time Flood Forecasting

Part 4: Flood Modelling and Mitigation

Chapter 11: Data Utilization in Flood Inundation Modelling

Introduction

Data Requirements for Flood Inundation Modelling

Use of Data for Model Parameterization

Use of Remotely Sensed Flood Extent and Water Stage Measurements for Model Calibration, Validation and Assimilation

Conclusion and Future Research

References

Chapter 12: Flood Inundation Modelling to Support Flood Risk Management

Introduction: The Role of Modelling in Flood Risk Management

Modelling Methods

Recent, Ongoing and Future Research Challenges

Conclusions

References

Chapter 13: Integrated Urban Flood Modelling

Introduction

Surface Flow Model

Integrated Surface/Subsurface Flow Model

Case Studies

References

Part 5: Systems Modelling and Uncertainty Handling

Chapter 14: Distributed Models and Uncertainty in Flood Risk Management

The Requirement for Distributed Models in Flood Risk Management

The Evolution of Distributed Models in Hydrology and Hydraulics

Simplified Distributed Models

Calibration Issues in Using Distributed Models

Data Assimilation Issues in Using Distributed Models

Prediction Uncertainty in Distributed Models

Towards ‘Models of Everywhere'

References

Chapter 15: Towards the Next Generation of Risk-Based Asset Management Tools

Introduction

Future Uptake: Barriers and Facilitators

Conclusions

Acknowledgements

References

Overview of Asset Management

Better Asset Management: Rising to the Challenge

Asset Management Tools and Techniques: Key Features

Common/Central Databases

Understanding the Performance of an Individual Asset

System Analysis and Attributing Risk to Individual Assets

Developing Adaptive and Optimum Intervention Strategies

Review, Decide and Act

Chapter 16: Handling Uncertainty in Coastal Modelling

Introduction

Modelling and Prediction Techniques

Case study: Tidal Flow Prediction

Case Study: Statistical Modelling of Beaches

Case Study: Uncertainties in Morphological Models

Case Study: Risk Assessment of Cliff Erosion

Concluding Remarks

Acknowledgements

References

Part 6: Policy and Planning

Chapter 17: The Practice of Power: Governance and Flood Risk Management

Introduction

Conclusions

References

Sustainable Development and Governance

What is Governance?

Who Has Power?

The Differentiation of Interests and Power

What Must Governance Do?

Governance and Technology

Governance in Practice

Doing ‘Better’

Chapter 18: Stakeholder Engagement in Flood Risk Management

Introduction

What is Successful Stakeholder Engagement?

Conclusions

References

What is Stakeholder Engagement?

Who is a Stakeholder?

Why does Justice Matter?

What is Justice?

Is Justice Possible?

Procedural Justice

Social Relationships

Stakeholder Engagement as a Process

Chapter 19: Flood Risk Communication

Introduction

Communications between Science and Flood Risk Professionals

Intra-Professional Flood Risk Communication

Communications between Flood Risk Professionals and the Public

Summary

References

Chapter 20: Socio-Psychological Dimensions of Flood Risk Management

Introduction

References

A Framework for Analysing the Socio-Psychological Dimensions of Flood Risk Management

Preparation and Planning Before Flooding

Response and Relief During Flooding: Damage Control

Recovery after Flood

Mitigation Before and After: Adaptation

Individual and Societal Factors

Conclusions: New Directions for Flood Risk Management?

Acknowledgement

Chapter 21: Assessment of Infection Risks due to Urban Flooding

Introduction

Source

Pathways or Routes of Exposure

Receptors

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA)

Discussion

Mitigating Exposure to Infection

Conclusions

References

Part 7: Case Studies

Chapter 22: Modelling Concepts and Strategies to Support Integrated Flood Risk Management in Large, Lowland Basins: Río Salado Basin, Argentina

Introduction

The Río Salado Basin

Flooding Mechanisms and Risks in Large Lowland Basins

Approaches and Techniques: The Role of Mathematical Modelling

Modelling Groundwater and Surface Water Interaction

A guide to Modelling Flooding in large lowland basins

Conclusions

Acknowledgements

References

Chapter 23: Flood Modelling in the Thames Estuary

Introduction

Flooding and the Thames Estuary

Extreme Water Levels

Flood Mapping

Flood Forecasting

TE2100: Strategic Flood Risk Management

Conclusions

Acknowledgements

References

Chapter 24: A Strategic View of Land Management Planning in Bangladesh

Introduction

Profile of Land Resources

Land Management Practices: Reconstruction of History

Physical Basis of Land Management in Bangladesh

Land Use Planning According to Land Types

Flood Management Practices in Bangladesh: Impacts on Land Use

Impacts and Issues

Concluding Remarks

Glossary

References

Chapter 25: Goals, Institutions and Governance: the US Experience

Dealing with Floods: From Colonies to Katrina

Setting a Direction

Institutions

Translating Policies into Action

Learning from the US Experience

References

Color Plates

Index

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Flood risk science and management / edited by Gareth Pender ... [et al.].

p. cm.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN 978-1-4051-8657-5 (hardback)

1. Flood control. 2. Flood damage prevention. 3. Risk assessment. I. Pender, G. (Garry)

TC530.F585 2010

627'.4–dc22

2010017500

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.

This book is published in the following electronic formats: ePDF 9781444324853; Wiley Online Library 9781444324846

Preface

Approaches to avoid loss of life and limit disruption and damage from flooding have changed significantly in recent years. There has been a move from a strategy of flood defence to one of flood risk management. Flood risk management includes flood prevention using hard defences, where appropriate, but also requires that society learns to live with floods and that stakeholders living in flood prone areas develop coping strategies to increase their resilience to flood impacts when these occur. This change in approach represents a paradigm shift which stems from the realisation that continuing to strengthen and extend conventional flood defences is unsustainable economically, environmentally, and in terms of social equity. Flood risk management recognises that a sustainable approach must rest on integrated measures that reduce not only the probability of flooding, but also the consequences. This is essential as increases in the probability of inundation are inevitable in many areas of the world due to climate change, while socio-economic development will lead to spiralling increases in the consequences of flooding unless land use in floodplains is carefully planned.

Recognizing the need for research to support this shift, funders of flood risk management research in the UK created the Flood Risk Management Research Consortium (FRMRC), a multi-institutional, multi-disciplinary consortium tasked with increasing the understanding of flooding by generating new and original science, to support improved flood risk management. The portfolio of activities included:

the short-term delivery of tools and techniques to support accurate flood forecasting and warning, improvements to flood management infrastructure and reduction of flood risk to people, property and the environment;the establishment of a programme of high quality science to enhance understanding of flooding and improve society's ability to reduce flood risk through the development of sustainable flood management strategies.

The core content for this volume has been provided by members of the FRMRC. In addition, we have broadened the range of expertise by drawing on the international research community in flood management. Our intention is to provide an extensive and comprehensive synthesis of current international research in flood management, thereby, providing a multi-disciplinary reference text covering a wide range of flood management topics.

The book authors are at the very highest position in academic institutions researching Flood Risk Science and Management in the UK and elsewhere. The contents are organised into seven parts. Part 1 of the text develops a scene-setting overview of contemporary scientific and socio-economic challenges, drawing largely on the situation in Europe and the UK in particular. In Part 2, land-use management is explored as a strategic approach to flood risk reduction. Flood frequency changes consequent upon land-use modifications under current climatic and socio-economic ‘futures’ are explored, the multi-scale impacts of land management on flooding are developed further in the case study context of FRMRC's Pont Bren study area, a subcatchment of the river Severn in mid-Wales, UK (Chapters 2 & 3). In Chapter 4, the coastal management strategies of managed retreat, managed realignment and restoration are reviewed as approaches to coastal flood risk. The issues associated with sediment management in flood models and in management schemes are explored in Chapter 5, and flood defence and asset appraisal reviewed in Chapter 6.

In Part 3, flood forecasting and the issuing of warnings are both considered from a technical perspective. Chapters 7 and 8 look at advances in remote sensing; in Chapter 7 in relation to precipitation estimation using radar, and in Chapter 8 in relation to real-time flood forecasting. The challenges of updating forecasts in real-time is explored in Chapter 9, and the problems associated with coupling rainfall and run-off models are considered in Chapter 10.

Flood modelling, and the modelling of flood mitigation effects is the focus of Part 4. Chapter 11 covers data utilisation for modelling purposes, and Chapters 12 and 13 develop the algorithm for 1D-2D modelling in a range of settings. The tools available for handling uncertainties in models are outlined in Part 5. The risk-based approach is further developed in the context of asset management in Chapter 15, and in coastal modelling in Chapter 16.

In Part 6, policy and planning are both addressed from a predominantly socio-economic perspective. Governance issues (Chapter 17), the involvement of stakeholders in practice and management (Chapter 18), and the design of effective ways to target flood risk communications (Chapter 19) are considered first. Some of the psycho-social dimensions of Flood Risk Management are explored in Chapter 20, and health impacts of flooding in Chapter 21. The remaining chapters in Part 7 trace key case studies from a range of international settings.

This text covering Flood Risk Science and Management therefore provides an extensive and comprehensive synthesis of current research in flood management; developing a multi-disciplinary reference text covering a wide range of flood management topics. Its targeted readership is the international research community (from research students through to senior staff), as well as flood management professionals, such as engineers, planners, government officials and those with flood management responsibility in the public sector. By using the concept of case study chapters, international coverage is given to the topic, ensuring a world-wide relevance.

Acknowledgements

The research reported in all chapters except Chapters 1, 10, 17, 18, 20, 24 and 25 was undertaken in part by the Flood Risk Management Research Consortium (FRMRC). The FRMRC is supported by grants GR/S76304/01 and EP/F020511/1 from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, in partnership with the DEFRA/EA Joint Research Programme on Flood and Coastal Defence, UKWIR, OPW (Ireland), the Scottish Government and the Rivers Agency (Northern Ireland). This financial support is gratefully acknowledged. The consortium is also grateful to the Environment Agency for providing LiDAR the data and the Ordnance Survey for providing Mastermap® data to support the consortium's modelling activities. The many reviewers of the chapters here are thanked for their time, and generous attention to detail.

Gareth Pender and Hazel Faulkner

September 2010

Contributors

Tony Andryszewski Policy Manager, Environment Agency, Aztec House, Bristol, UK

Rodolfo Aradas, PhD Halcrow Group Ltd, Buenos Aires, Argentina

Barney N. Austin, PhD PE Director of Hydrologic Services, INTERA, Inc., Austin, TX, USA

Geoffrey L. Austin, MSc, PhD, FRSNZ Professor of Geophysics, Physics Department, University of Auckland, New Zealand

CAROLINE BALLARD, mE Research Assistant, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, UK

Paul D. Bates, PhD Professor of Hydrology, School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, UK

Geoff Baxter PhD Research Scientist - Flooding and Communities, Research, Monitoring and Innovation Evidence Directorate, Environment Agency, Cardiff, Wales, UK

Keith Beven, PhD Professor of Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YQ, UK

David S. Biedenharn, PhD Principal Investigator, Biedenharn Group, LLC, Vicksburg, MS 39180, USA

John Blanksby, DMS, CEng MICE Research Fellow, Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, University of Sheffield, UK

Andrew Brookes, PhD, FCIWEM, MIEMA, C.WEM, CENV, CSCI, CGEOG Divisional Director, Jacobs Engineering UK Ltd, 1180 Eskdale Road, Winnersh, Wokingham, RG14 5TU, UK

Nataliya S Bulygina, PhD Research Associate, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, UK

Ian D. Cluckie, MSc., PhD, FRENG, CENG, FICE, FCIWEM, FRSA, FRMETSOC Professor and Pro-Vice-Chancellor (Science and Engineering), Swansea University, Wales, UK

Tom J. Coulthard, PhD Professor of Physical Geography, University of Hull, Hull, HU6 7RX, UK

Mark Dixon, FIMS, MBE Independent, West Mersea, Essex

Slobodan DjordjeviĆ, PhD Associate Professor of Hydraulic Engineering, Centre for Water Systems, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, UK

John Ewen, PhD School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK

Hazel Faulkner, MSc, PhD Professor of Environmental Management, Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University, UK

Lorna Fewtrell, PhD, FRSPH Centre for Research into Environment and Health, Aberystwyth University, Wales, UK

Zoe Frogbrook, PhD Advisor: Soils and Forestry, Environment Agency Wales, UK. Formerly at Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Centre Wales, Bangor, Wales, UK

Gerald E. Galloway, PhD, PE Professor of Engineering, Glenn L. Martin Institute, University of Maryland, USA

Stanford Gibson, PhD Research Hydraulic Engineer, Hydrologic Engineering Center, Davis, CA 95616, USA

Nigel J.D. Graham, MSc, PhD, DIC, SCD, FICE, FICHEME, FCIWEM, CENG, CSCI, CENV Professor of Environmental Engineering, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College, London, UK

Colin Green, MA Professor of Geography, Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University, UK

Jim W. Hall, PhD, CENG, FICE Professor of Earth Systems Engineering, School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK

J. Barrie Holden, CChem, MRSC Innovation Programme Manager, Anglian Water Services Ltd, Peterborough, UK

JosÉ Horrillo-Caraballo, PhD Research Fellow, School of Engineering, University of Plymouth, UK

Bethanna M Jackson, PhD Lecturer in Hydrology and Water Resources, School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences, Victo, ria University of Wellington, New Zealand. Formerly at Imperial College London, UK

David Kay, PhD Professor of Environment and Health, Centre for Catchment and Coastal Research and Centre for Research into Environment and Health, Hydrology and River Basin Dynamics Research Group, IGES, Aberystwyth University, Wales, UK

Malik Fida Abdullah Khan CEGIS, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Jonathan Lawry, PhD Professor of Artificial Intelligence, Department of Engineering Mathematics, University of Bristol, Queen's Building, University Walk, Bristol, UK

Charles D. Little Jr, PE Research Hydraulic Engineer, US Army Corps of Engineers, Engineer Research & Development Center, Vicksburg, MS 39180, USA

Gavin Long, PhD Research Associate, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Nottingham, UK

Luke Lovell, MSc Halcrow, Swindon, UK

Čedo MaksimoviĆ, PhD Professorial Research Fellow, Centre for Urban Water, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, UK

Miles R. Marshall, PhD Teaching Fellow in Physical Geography, School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand. Formerly at Imperial College London, UK

David C. Mason, PhD Reader, NERC Environmental Systems Science Centre, University of Reading, UK

Michael J. Mawdesley, PhD Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Nottingham, UK

Simon McCarthy, PhD Researcher, Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University, UK

Daniel R. McCulloch formerly Department of Engineering Mathematics, University of Bristol, Queen's Building, University Walk, Bristol, UK

Neil McIntyre, PhD Reader, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, UK

David M. Mooney, PhD, PE Program Engineer, San Joaquin River Restoration Project, Bureau of Reclamation, Sacramento, CA 95825, USA

Ainun Nishat, PhD IUCN-World Conservation Union, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Bushra Nishat Institute of Water Modelling, Bangladesh

Sylvain NÉelz, PhD Former Lecturer, School of the Built Environment, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK

Enda O'Connell, PhD Professor of Water Resources Engineering, School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.

Greg O'Donnell, PhD Catchment Change Network, School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK

AdriÁn Pedrozo-Acuña, PhD Investigador, Instituto de Ingeniería, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico

Gareth Pender, PhD, CENG, FICE, FCIWEM, FRSE Professor of Environmental Engineering, School of the Built Environment, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK

Edmund Penning-Rowsell, MA, PhD Professor of Geography, Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University, UK

Nicholas J. Randon Artificial Intelligence Group, Department of Engineering Mathematics, University of Bristol, BS8 1TR, UK

Dominic E. Reeve, PhD, CMATH, FIMA, FICE Professor of Coastal Dynamics, School of Engineering, University of Plymouth, UK

Brian Reynolds, PhD Senior Water Quality Scientist, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Centre Wales, Bangor, Wales, UK

Adrian J. Saul, PhD, FICE Yorkshire Water Chair of Water Engineering, Pennine Water Group, University of Sheffield, Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, Sheffield, UK

Paul Sayers, PhD Principal Partner, Sayers and Partners, Watlington, UK

Guy J-P. Schumann, PhD GWR Fellow, School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, UK

Colin Scott, MSc ABP Marine Environmental Research (ABPmer), UK

Paul Shucksmith, MSc Graduate student, Atmospheric Physics Group, University of Auckland, New Zealand

Jonathan Simm Hydraulics Research Wallingford Ltd, Wallingford, UK

Keren Smith, PhD Centre for Research into Environment and Health, Aberystwyth University, Wales, UK

Philip J. Soar, PhD, CENV, CSCI, CWEM, MCIWEM Senior Lecturer in Physical Geography, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth, PO1 3HE, UK

Luke Sutherland-Stacey, MSc Graduate student, Atmospheric Physics Group, University of Auckland, New Zealand

Sue Tapsell, MA Head of Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University, London, UK

Owen Tarrant Environment Agency, Bristol, UK

Colin R. Thorne, PhD Professor and Chair of Physical Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, NG7 2RD, UK

Ian Townend, CEng, CMarSci, FICE, FIMarEst, MCIWEM HR Wallingford, Howbery Park, Wallingford; and University of Southampton, UK

Sylvia Tunstall, MA Senior Researcher, Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University, UK

Michael Wallis Hydraulics Research Wallingford Ltd, Wallingford, UK

Marco J. Van de Wiel, PhD University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, N6A 5C2, Canada

Nicholas P. Wallerstein, PhD Post Doctoral Research Associate, School of the Built Environment, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, EH14 4AS, UK

Chester C. Watson, PhD Principal Investigator, Biedenharn Group, LLC, 1917 Cottonwood Point Drive, Fort Collins, CO 80525, USA

Howard S. Wheater, MA, PhD, FRENG, FICE, CENG Professor of Hydrology, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College, London, UK

Jon Wicks, PhD Halcrow, Swindon, UK

Duncan Wishart, MSc, PhD, MCIWEM, CWEM, CENV, CSCI Principal Geomorphologist, Jacobs Engineering UK Ltd, 1 City Walk, Leeds, LS11 9DX, UK

Nigel G. Wright, BSc, PhD, CENG, FHEA, FASCE, FICE Professor of Water and Environmental Engineering, University of Leeds, UK

Peter C. Young, MSc (Loughborough), MA, PhD (CANTAB), WHF, CENG Professor Emeritus, Lancaster Environment Centre, University of Lancaster, Lancaster, LA1 4YQ, UK; Adjunct Professor, Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia; Visiting Professor, School of Electrical Engineering & Telecommunications, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia

Foreword

Flooding is an important issue in the UK; over £200 billion worth of assets are at risk around British rivers and coasts, and those risks are likely to increase in the future due to climate change. To assist in managing these risks the joint Defra/EA Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management Research and Development Programme (FCERM) aims to ensure the development of high-quality R&D outputs that provide the evidence required for sustainable flood and coastal erosion risk management policy, process and delivery.

In 2004, the programme managers entered into an agreement with the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), the Scottish Parliament and UK Water Industry Research (UKWIR), to fund the interdisciplinary Flood Risk Management and Research Consortium. The rationale behind this innovative joint funding arrangement was to combine the strengths of fundamental and near-market researchers and research philosophies in a truly multi-disciplinary programme. The research portfolio was designed to address medium-term issues in flood science and engineering, while being consistent with the objectives of the overall FCERM programme.

This volume is underpinned by the outcomes from the consortium's research programme and I am delighted to provide this foreword. The editors have been successful in collecting together key research papers from consortium members and their international collaborators, to produce a monograph of important scientific findings set within a multi-disciplinary context.

Flood Risk Science and Management therefore supports the goal of improved flood and coastal erosion risk management in both a UK and an international setting. This book makes a significant contribution to the Environment Agency's task of improving definitions of flood risk and meeting the challenges of defining and coping with the uncertainties that flooding brings for UK flood managers.

David Rooke MBE, BSc(Hons), CEng, FICE, FCIWEM

Acting Director of Flood and Coastal Risk Management

Environment Agency

Rio House

Waterside Drive

Aztec West

BRISTOL

BS32 4UD

Acronyms/Glossary of terms

AAD

Annual Average Damage

ADCP

Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler

ADI

Alternating Direction Implicit

AMit

Asset Management IT System

AOD

Above Ordnance Datum

AR model

Auto Regressive model

ARMA modelling

Auto Regressive Moving Average modelling

ASAR

Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar

ASMITA

Aggregated Scale Morphological Interaction between a Tidal Basin and the Adjacent Coast

AUDACIOUS

Adaptable Urban Drainage – addressing Change in Intensity, Occurrence and Uncertainty in Stormwater

BaRE

Bayesian Recursive Estimator

BGS

British Geological Survey

BODC

British Oceanographic Data Centre

CAESAR

Cellular Automaton Evolutionary Slope and River Model

CCA

Canonical Correlation Analysis

CD

Chart Datum

CEH

Centre for Ecology and Hydrology

CES

Conveyance Estimation System

CFD

Computational Fluid Dynamics

CFX

Commercial computational fluid dynamics programme used to simulate fluid flow in a variety of applications.

CI

Condition Index

CIRIA

Construction Industry Research & Information Association

CIWEM

The Chartered Institution of Water & Environment Management

CSO

Chief Scientist Office

DBM

Data Based Mechanistic

DEFRA

Department of Environment, Food & Rural Affairs

DEM

Digital Elevation Model

DEM

Dynamic Emulation Model

DETR

Department of Environment, Transport & the Regions

DOS

Disk Operating System

DPSIR

Drivers, Pressures, States, Impacts, Responses

DSD

Drop Size Distribution

DSM

Digital Surface Model

DTM

Digital Terrain Model

DYNIA

DYNamic Indentifiability Analysis

EA

Environment Agency

EAD

Expected Annual Damage

ECMWF

European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasting

EKF

Extended Kalman Filter

EnKF

Ensemble Kalman Filter

ENO

Essentially Non-Oscillatory

ENVISAT (satellite)

Environmental satellite

EO

Earth Observation

EOF

Empirical Orthogonal Function

ERS-2

European Remote Sensing Satellite

ESA

European Space Agency

FEPA

Food & Environmental Protection Act

FI

Failure Likelihood Index

FRF

Field Research Facility

FRMRC

Flood Risk Management Research Consortium

FRSM

Rapid Flood Spreading Method

FTT

French Tide Table

GAs

Genetic Algorithms

GCM

Generator-Coordinate-Method

GIS

Geographic Information System

GLUE

Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation

GNU

Computer operating system

GPS

Global Positioning System

GRW

Generalised Random Walk

GSM

Global System for Mobile (communications)

HEC-RAS

Hydraulic Engineering Centre – River Analysis System

HMA

Heterogeneous Missions Accessibility

HRU

Hydrological Response Unit

HYMOD model

A 5-parameter conceptual rainfall runoff model.

Hypsometry

The establishment of elevations or altitudes

ICESat (satellite)

Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation satellite

InHM

Integrated Hydrological Model

INS

Inertial Navigation System

InSAR

Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar

IR

Infrared

IV

Instrumental Variable

JFLOW

A multiscale two-dimensional (2D) dynamic flood model

KF

Kalman Filter

LAT

Lowest Astronomical Tide

LDT

Linguistic Decision Tree

LID

Low impact development

LiDAR

Light Detection & Ranging Data

LISFLOOD – FP

A 2-dimensional hydrodynamic model specifically designed to simulate floodplains inundation in a computationally efficient manner over complex topography

LISFLOOD (model)

a GIS-based distributed model for river basin scale water balance and flood simulation

LSEs

Limit State Equations

LSPs

Land Surface Parameterisations

LWC

Liquid Water Content

MCMC

Markov Chain Monte Carlo

MCS

Monte Carlo Simulation

MDSF2

Modelling Decision Support Framework

MIKE SHE

Dynamic, user-friendly modelling tool that can simulate the entire land phase of the hydrologic cycle

MISR

Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer

ML

Maximum likelihood

MLE

Multiple Linking Elements

MODIS

Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

MOPS

Moisture Observation Pre-processing System

MUSCL

Monotonic Up-Stream Centred Schemes for Conservation Laws

NaFRA

National Flood Risk Analysis

NCAR

National Centre for Atmospheric Research

NERC

Natural Environment Research Council

NFCDD

National Flood & Coastal Defence Database

NFFS

National Flood Forecasting System

NOAA

National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration

NWP

Numerical Weather Prediction

OMS

Object Modelling System

Open FTA

Open Fault Tree Analysis

PAMS

Performance-based Asset Management System

PF

Particle Filter

PF

Performance Features

PV (damage)

Present Value

QPBRRM (model)

Quasi Physically-Based Rainfall Runoff model

QPF

Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting

RAFT

Risk Assessment Field-based Tool

RASP

Risk Assessment of Flood & Coastal Defence for Strategic Planning

RCM

Relative Confidence Measure

REAS

River Energy Audit Scheme

REW

Representative Elementary Watershed

RHI (scan)

Range Height Indicator

RHS

Royal Horticultural Society

RIV

Refined Instrumental Variable

RLS

Recursive Least Squares

RMS

Root Mean Square

RMSE

Root mean squared Error

RPE

Recursive Prediction Error

RW

Random Walk

SAC

Special Area of Conservation

SAR

Synthetic Aperture Radar

SDPR

State Dependent Parameter Regression

SEPA

Scottish Environment Protection Agency

SHE

Système Hydrologique Européen

SHETRAN

A three-dimensional, coupled surface/subsurface, physically-based, spatially-distributed, finite-difference model for coupled water flow, multifraction sediment transport and multiple, reactive solute transport in river basins

SIAM

Sediment Impact Assessment Model

SIPSON (model)

Simulation of Interaction between Pipe flow and Surface Overland flow in Networks

SLURP (model)

Semi-distributed Land Use-based Runoff Processes

SMHI

Sveriges Meteorolgiska och Hydrologiska Institut (Swedish)

SOBEK

1-dimensional and 2-dimensional instrument for flood forecasting, drainage systems, irrigation systems, sewer overflow etc

SRTM

Shuttle Radar Topography Mission

SSSI

Site of Special Scientific Interest

SUDS

Sustainable Drainage Systems

SWMP

Surface Water Management Plans

SWOT

Surface Water Ocean Topography

TF

Transfer Function

TIN

Triangular Irregular Network

TUFLOW software

a one-dimensional and two-dimensional flood and tide simulation software

TVD

Total Variation Diminishing

TVP

Time Variable Parameter

UIM

Urban Integrated Model

UKF

Unscented Kalman Filter

UKWIR

UK Water Industry Research

USACE

United States Army Corps of Engineers

VPR

Vertical Reflectivity of Precipitation

VPR

Vertically Pointing Radar

VRP

Vertical Reflectivity Profile

WaPUG

The Urban Drainage Group of the CIWEM

WRIP

Weather Radar Information Processor

WSP

Whole Systems Partnership

Part 1

Introduction

Chapter 1

Setting the Scene for Flood Risk Management

Jim W. Hall and Edmund C. Penning-Rowsell

The Changing Context of Modern Flood Risk Management

A major shift in approaches to the management of flooding is now underway in many countries worldwide. This shift has been stimulated by severe floods, for example on the Oder (Odra; 1997), Yangtze (1998), Elbe (Labe; 2002), Rhône (2003), in New Orleans (2005), on the Danube (2006) and in the UK (2000, 2007 and 2009). Also important has been a recognition of the relentless upward global trend in vulnerability to flooding and hence losses (Munich Re Group 2007), as well as threats from the potential impacts of climate change on flood frequency. In this context this chapter examines the main characteristics of the emerging approach to flood risk management, as a prelude to the more detailed exploration of methods and models that follows in this volume.

Whilst recent floods have been a stimulus for changing flood risk management policy and practice in the UK (Johnson 2005; Penning-Rowsell 2006), the notion of an integrated risk-based approach to flood management is in fact well established (National Academy of Engineering 2000; National Research Council 2000; Sayers et al. 2002; Hall et al. 2003c). Methods for probabilistic risk analysis have been used for some years in the narrower context of flood defence engineering (CUR/TAW 1990; Vrijling 1993; USACE 1996; Goldman 1997). Indeed the notion of risk-based optimization of the costs and benefits of flood defence was laid out in van Dantzig's (1956) seminal analysis.