Food Security and Climate Change E-Book
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- Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
- Kategorie: Fachliteratur
- Sprache: Englisch
This book looks at the current state of food security and climate change, discusses the issues that are affecting them, and the actions required to ensure there will be enough food for the future. By casting a much wider net than most previously published books--to include select novel approaches, techniques, genes from crop diverse genetic resources or relatives--it shows how agriculture may still be able to triumph over the very real threat of climate change. Food Security and Climate Change integrates various challenges posed by changing climate, increasing population, sustainability in crop productivity, demand for food grains to sustain food security, and the anticipated future need for nutritious quality foods. It looks at individual factors resulting from climate change, including rising carbon emission levels, increasing temperature, disruptions in rainfall patterns, drought, and their combined impact on planting environments, crop adaptation, production, and management. The role of plant genetic resources, breeding technologies of crops, biotechnologies, and integrated farm management and agronomic good practices are included, and demonstrate the significance of food grain production in achieving food security during climate change. Food Security and Climate Change is an excellent book for researchers, scientists, students, and policy makers involved in agricultural science and technology, as well as those concerned with the effects of climate change on our environment and the food industry.
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Table of Contents
Cover
List of Contributors
1 Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Climate Change and Food Security
1.3 Predicted Impacts of Climate Change on Global Agriculture, Crop Production, and Livestock
1.4 Impact of Divergent & Associated Technologies on Food Security under Climate Change
1.5 The Government of India Policies and Programs for Food Security
1.6 Conclusions
References
In Riculture Seri
2 Changes in Food Supply and Demand by 2050
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Model Description
2.3 Model Assumptions
2.4 Climate Assumptions
2.5 Results
2.6 Underutilized Crops
2.7 Consumption
2.8 Trade and Prices
2.9 Food Security
2.10 Conclusion
References
3 Crop Responses to Rising Atmospheric [CO
2
] and Global Climate Change
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Crop Production Responses to Rising [CO
2
]
Acknowledgements
References
4 Adaptation of Cropping Systems to Drought under Climate Change (Examples from Australia and Spain)
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Water Supply
4.3 Interactions of Water with Temperature, CO
2
and Nutrients
4.4 Matching Genetic Resources to The Environment and the Challenge to Identify the Ideal Phenotype
4.5 Changing Climate and Strategies to Increase Crop Water Supply and Use
4.6 Beyond Australia and Spain
4.7 Conclusions
Acknowledgments
References
5 Combined Impacts of Carbon, Temperature, and Drought to Sustain Food Production
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Changing Climate
5.3 Carbon Dioxide And Plant Growth
5.4 Temperature Effects on Plant Growth
5.5 Water Effects on Plant Growth
5.6 Interactions of Carbon Dioxide, Temperature, And Water in a Changing Climate
References
6 Scope, Options and Approaches to Climate Change
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Impact of CO
2
and climate stress on growth and yield of agricultural crop
6.3 The Primary Mechanisms of Plants Respond to Elevated CO
2
6.4 Interaction of Rising CO
2
With Other Environmental Factors – Temperature and Water
6.5 Impact of Climate Change on Crop Quality
6.6 Climate Change, Crop Improvement, and Future Food Security
6.7 Intra‐specific Variation in Crop Response to Elevated [CO
2
] ‐ Current Germplasm Versus Wild Relatives
6.8 Identification of New QTLs for Plant Breeding
6.9 Association Mapping for Large Germplasm Screening
6.10 Genetic Engineering of CO
2
Responsive Traits
6.11 Conclusions
References
7 Mitigation and Adaptation Approaches to Sustain Food Security under Climate Change
7.1 Technology and its Approaches Options to Climate Change in Agriculture System
7.2 Development and Implementation of Techniques to Combat Climatic Changes
References
8 Role of Plant Breeding to Sustain Food Security under Climate Change
8.1 Introduction
8.2 Sources of Genetic Diversity and their Screening for Stress Adaptation
8.3 Physiology‐facilitated Breeding and Phenotyping
8.4 DNA‐markers for Trait Introgression and Omics‐led Breeding
8.5 Transgenic Breeding
References
9 Role of Plant Genetic Resources in Food Security
9.1 Introduction
9.2 Climate Change and Agriculture
9.3 Adjusting Crop Distribution
9.4 Within Crop Genetic Diversity for Abiotic Stress Tolerances
9.5 Broadening the Available Genetic Diversity Within Crops
9.6 Crop Wild Relatives as a Novel Source Of Genetic Diversity
9.7 Genomics, Genetic Variation and Breeding for Tolerance of Abiotic Stresses
9.8 Under‐utilised Species
9.9 Genetic Resources in the Low Rainfall Temperate Crop Zone
9.10 Forage and Range Species
9.11 Genetic Resources in the Humid Tropics
9.12 Genetic Resources in the Semi‐arid Tropics and Representative Subsets
9.13 Plant Phenomics
9.14 Discovering Climate Resilient Germplasm Using Representative Subsets
9.15 Global Warming and Declining Nutritional Quality
9.16 Crop Wild Relatives (CWR) ‐ The Source of Allelic Diversity
9.17 Introgression of Traits from CWR
9.18 Association Genetics to Abiotic Stress Adaptation
9.19 Strategic Overview
9.20 Perspectives
9.21 Summary
References
10 Breeding New Generation Genotypes for Conservation Agriculture in Maize‐Wheat Cropping Systems under Climate Change
10.1 Introduction
10.2 Challenges Before Indian Agriculture
10.3 CA as a Concept to Address These Issues Simultaneously
10.4 Technological Gaps for CA in India
10.5 Characteristics of Genotypes Adapted for CA
10.6 Wheat Ideotype for Rice‐Wheat Cropping Systems of Northern India
10.7 Breeding Methodology Adopted in IARI for CA Specific Breeding
10.8 Countering the Tradeoff Between Stress Adaptation and Yield Enhancement Through CA Directed Breeding
10.9 Conclusions
References
11 Pests and Diseases under Climate Change; Its Threat to Food Security
11.1 Introduction
11.2 Climate Change and Insect Pests
11.3 Climate Change and Plant Viruses
11.4 Climate Change and Fungal Pathogens
11.5 Climate Change and Effects on Host Plant Distribution and Availability
Acknowledgments
References
12 Crop Production Management to Climate Change
12.1 Introduction
12.2 Maize Scenario in World and India
12.3 The Growth Rate of Maize
12.4 Maize Improvement
12.5 Single Cross Hybrids
12.6 Pedigree Breeding for Inbred Lines Development
12.7 Preferred Characteristics for Good Parent
12.8 Nutrient Management Practices for Higher Productivity and Profitability in Maize Systems
References
13 Vegetable Genetic Resources for Food and Nutrition Security under Climate Change
13.1 Introduction
13.2 Global vegetable production
13.3 The Role of Genetic Diversity to Maintain Sustainable Production Systems Under Climate Change
13.4 Ex Situ Conservation of Vegetable Germplasm at The Global Level
13.5 Access to Information on Ex Situ Germplasm Held Globally
13.6 In Situ and On‐farm Conservation of Vegetable Resources
13.7 Summary and Outlook
Acknowledgment
References
Annex 1 Genebank Acronyms Used in Table 13.2
14 Sustainable Vegetable Production to Sustain Food Security under Climate Change at Global Level
14.1 Introduction
14.2 Regional Perspective: Sub‐Saharan Africa
14.3 Regional Perspective: South and Central Asia
14.4 The Role of Plant Genetic Resources for Sustainable Vegetable Production
14.5 Microbial Genetic Resources to Boost Agricultural Performance of Robust Production Systems and to Buffer Impacts of Climate Change
14.6 Physiological Responses to a Changing Climate: Elevated CO
2
Concentrations and Temperature in The Environment
14.7 Plant Breeding for Sustainable Vegetable Production
14.8 Management of Bacterial and Fungal Diseases for Sustainable Vegetable Production
14.9 Management of Insect and Mite Pests
14.10 Grafting to Overcome Soil‐borne Diseases and Abiotic Stresses
14.11 Summary and Outlook
Acknowledgment
References
15 Sustainable Production of Roots and Tuber Crops for Food Security under Climate Change
15.1 Introduction
15.2 Optimum Growing Conditions for Root and Tuber Crops
15.3 Projected Response of Root and Tuber Crops to Climate Change
15.4 Climate Change and Potato Production
15.5 Sustainable Production Approaches
15.6 Optimization of Root and Tuber Crops Resilience to Climate Change
15.7 Conclusion
References
16 The Roles of Biotechnology in Agriculture to Sustain Food Security under Climate Change
16.1 Introduction
16.2 Reduced Water Availability and Drought
16.3 Drought‐proofing Wheat and Other Cereals
16.4 Drought Tolerance in Temperate Legumes
16.5 Drought Tolerance in Tropical Crops
16.6 Rainfall Intensity, Flooding and Water‐logging Tolerance
16.7 Heat Stress And Thermo–tolerance
16.8 Thermo‐tolerance and Heat Shock Proteins in Food Crops
16.9 Heat Stress Tolerance in Temperate Legumes
16.10 Salinity Stress, Ionic and Osmotic Tolerances
16.11 Salinity Tolerance in Rice
16.12 Salinity Tolerance in Legumes
16.13 Transgenics to Overcome Climate Change Imposed Abiotic Stresses
16.14 Conclusion
References
17 Application of Biotechnologies in the Conservation and Utilization of Plant Genetic Resources for Food Security
17.1 Introduction
17.2 Climate change
17.3 Collecting Germplasm
17.4 Conservation
17.5 Characterization of Germplasm
17.6 Germplasm Exchange
17.7 Germplasm Utilization
17.8 Future Strategies and Guidelines for the Preservation of Plant Genetic Resources
References
18 Climate Change Influence on Herbicide Efficacy and Weed Management
18.1 Introduction
18.2 Herbicides in Weed Management
18.3 Climate Factors and Crop‐Weed Competition
18.4 Climate Change Factors, Herbicide Efficacy and Weed Control
18.5 Concluding Remarks and Future Direction
Acknowledgments
References
19 Farmers' Knowledge and Adaptation to Climate Change to Ensure Food Security
19.1 Farmers and Climate Change
19.2 Knowledge About Climate
19.3 Weather and Climate
19.4 Values and Beliefs About Climate Change
19.5 Farmer Climate Beliefs
19.6 Vulnerability, Experiences of Risk, Concern About Hazards and confidence
19.7 Climate Related Hazards
19.8 Adaptation Factors
19.9 Water is the Visible Face of Climate
19.10 Making Sense of Climate: Local, Indigenous and Scientific knowledge
19.11 System Adaptation or Transformation
References
20 Farmer and Community‐led Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation of Agriculture Using Agricultural Biodiversity and Genetic Resources
20.1 Introduction
20.2 Impact of Climate Change on Farming Communities
20.3 Inequity of Climate Change across Farming Communities
20.4 Impact of Climate Change on the Many Elements of Genetic Resources and Agricultural Biodiversity
20.5 Monocultures
20.6 Wild Species
20.7 Role of Genetic Resources and Agricultural Biodiversity in Coping with Climate Change
20.8 Brief Overview of Approaches Using Genetic Resources and Agricultural Biodiversity to Cope with Climate Change
20.9 Identification of a Spectrum of Examples of Farmer‐led Approaches
20.10 Examination of Barriers to Implementation of Farmer‐led Approaches
20.11 Systems that are working
20.12 Conclusion
References
21 Accessing Genetic Diversity for Food Security and Climate Change Adaptation in Select Communities in Africa
21.1 Introduction
21.2 Methodology
21.3 Results and Discussion
21.4 Conclusions and Policy Implications
References
Index
End User License Agreement
List of Tables
Chapter 2
Table 2.1 GDP, GDP per capita, and population in 2010 and growth in 2010–2050.
Table 2.2 Climate impacts on temperature: base level and projected changes to me...
Table 2.3 Climate impacts on annual precipitation: base level and projected, mm.
Table 2.4 Changes in Wheat Production from 2010 to 2050.
Table 2.5 Changes in Rice Production from 2010 to 2050.
Table 2.6 Changes in Maize Production from 2010 to 2050.
Table 2.7 Changes in Soybean Production from 2010 to 2050.
Table 2.8 Patterns of Global Production by Commodity Group, from 2010 to 2050.
Table 2.9 Patterns of Global Food Consumption by Commodity Group, from 2010 to 2...
Table 2.10 Changes in Components of World Livestock Feed, from 2010 to 2050.
Table 2.11 Net trade, 2010 and 2050.
Table 2.12 Changes in global prices of commodities, 2010 to 2050.
Table 2.13 Population at Risk of Hunger in millions, 2010 and 2050.
Table 2.14 Share of Population at Risk of Hunger, 2010 and 2050.
Chapter 3
Table 3.1 Location and experimental details of Free Air CO
2
Enrichment (FACE) si...
Chapter 5
Table 5.1 Response of plant physiological variables to a doubling of CO
2
concentr...
Chapter 9
Table 9.1 Total number of accessions held in‐trust by ICARDA genebank (as of Feb...
Table 9.2 New sources of resistance/tolerance to major biotic and abiotic stress...
Table 9.3 Germplasm Accessions held at the Genetic.
Table 9.4 Core collections in ICRISAT mandate crops and small millets.
Table 9.5 Mini core collections of ICRISAT mandate crops and small millets.
Table 9.6 Sources of resistance to abiotic stress reported using mini core colle...
Table 9.7 Sources of resistance to biotic stress reported using mini core collec...
Chapter 10
Table 10.1 Response of released varieties of wheat under zero‐till condition.
Table 10.2 Differential adaptability of the wheat genotypes to different croppin...
Table 10.3 Comparison among production system for irrigation ease.
Table 10.4 Yield performance of HD 3117 under late sown condition of conservatio...
Chapter 12
Table 12.1 The maize area, production and productivity in major maize producing ...
Table 12.2 Prospects of maize utilization in India.
Table 12.3 Maize based sequential cropping systems in different ago‐climatic zon...
Table 12.4 Maize based intercropping systems.
Table 12.5 Optimum times for sowing crops.
Table 12.6 Duration of irrigation requirement.
Table 12.7 Nutrient uptake by maize crop.
Table 12.8 Recommended dose of nutrients for maize cultivation in various states...
Table 12.9 Requirements of top dressing application.
Chapter 13
Table 13.1 Production of primary vegetables and the ten major vegetable commodit...
Table 13.2 Major ex situ vegetable germplasm collections of the top ten commodit...
Chapter 14
Table 14.1
Range values of photosynthesis and transpiration efficiencies, measure
...
Table 14.2 Major scientific discovery, technological advancements, and events in...
Chapter 16
Table 16.1 Examples of transgenic staple food crops with tolerances to many of t...
Chapter 17
Table 17.1 Major countries with genetically modified crops in terms of planted a...
Chapter 21
Table 21.1 Summary reference sites and selected crops.
Table 21.2 Summary effects of climate change and coping strategies 2008–2015.
List of Illustrations
Chapter 3
Figure 3.1 Global carbon budget from 1870 to 2014, reprinted from the G...
Figure 3.2 (a) Image of a Free Air CO
2
Enrichment (FACE) plot from the S...
Figure 3.3 Response of photosynthesis to [CO
2
]. (a) Example response of ...
Chapter 4
Figure 4.1 Map of the primary grain production zones in Australia showi...
Figure 4.2 Map of the four main grain production zones in Spain. Norther...
Figure 4.3 A strong positive linear relationship between crop water use ...
Figure 4.4 Computer modeling analysis of an adaptation to a warmer and d...
Chapter 5
Figure 5.1 Overview of temperature and meteorological parameters (relati...
Chapter 7
Figure 7.1 Boundary change of the cropping systems in southern China. S...
Chapter 10
Figure 10.1 Trend in return from wheat cultivation in Punjab and Uttar ...
Figure 10.2 Status of ground water development in (a) Punjab and (b) Har...
Figure 10.3 Area under rice production in selected districts of Haryana....
Figure 10.4 Water use analysis of major wheat growing state Haryana and ...
Figure 10.5 Productivity of wheat in Haryana in last seven years. Source...
Figure 10.6 Effect of rise in temperature on wheat yield. Source: Adapte...
Figure 10.7 Coleoptile length variation for wheat varieties over period ...
Figure 10.8 (a) HDCSW 18 in farmer's field condition of conservation agr...
Figure 10.9 Wheat productivity trend over major breeding period in Harya...
Figure 10.10 Trend in duration (days to heading and days to maturity) in...
Figure 10.11 CSW 57, a weed competitive and mild vernalization requireme...
Figure 10.12 HDCSW 18 under early seeding of conservation agriculture in...
Figure 10.13Figure 10.13 Mean of performance of varieties from ten locatio...
Figure 10.14Figure 10.14 Response of various cultivars for different date ...
Figure 10.15 Genotype performance of different wheat genotypes under dif...
Figure 10.16 Comparative yield of five best entries in (a) zero till mai...
Figure 10.17 An early direct seeded crop of HDCSW 18 under farmer's fiel...
Figure 10.18 HD 3117, the genotype with weed competitiveness and efficie...
Chapter 11
Figure 11.1 Disease triangle involving host plant, plant pathogen and v...
Figure 11.2 Life cycle of the bird cherry‐oat aphid (
Rhopalosiphum padi
)...
Figure 11.3 The effect of (a) increased temperature and (b) elevated CO
2
Chapter 12
Figure 12.1 The utilization pattern of maize in India and World.
Figure 12.2 Projected utilization of maize in 2030.
Figure 12.3 Maize is a profitable alternative crop.
Figure 12.4 Maize scenario in India.
Figure 12.5 Schematic diagramme showing marker assisted selection.
Figure 12.6 The schematic diagram shows the method of haploid induction ...
Figure 12.7 Haploid kernel identification (adopted from lecture notes of...
Figure 12.8 Flow chart of hybrid maize breeding scheme using doubled hap...
Figure 12.9 Impact of GM maize in maize productivity in USA.
Figure 12.10
(a).
1:3 Male–Female rows.
(b).
1:2 Male‐Female rows.
Figure 12.11 SCH seed production – alternate sites.
Figure 12.12 The onset of monsoon in India across different states.
Figure 12.13 Drip Irrigation in Maize.
Chapter 14
Figure 14.1 Pod morphology of a few selected mungbean accessions from n...
Figure 14.2 Percent increase in growth and yield traits of CO
2
fertilize...
Figure 14.3 A tunnel type grafting/healing chamber developed by the Worl...
Figure 14.4 Grafted tomato plant transplanted to the field.
Chapter 17
Figure 17.1 Farmland lost due to the flooding following a La Niña event...
Figure 17.2 Sweet potato conserved
ex situ
at the Miyakonojo Sweet Potat...
Figure 17.3 Germplasm conserved in tissue culture at the Secretariat of ...
Figure 17.4 Seeds stored in cold at National Institute of Agrobiological...
Chapter 19
Figure 19.1 US Midwest farmers have different beliefs, risk perceptions...
Chapter 20
Figure 20.1 Platform for Agrobiodiversity's Whole System Approach, high...
Figure 20.2Figure 20.2 Summary of Relationship between the Text boxes.
Chapter 21
Figure 21.1 Potentially adaptable maize accessions for present and 2050'...
Figure 21.2 Potentially adapted accessions of maize from international c...
Figure 21.3 Potentially adaptable accessions of sorghum from the nationa...
Figure 21.4 Potentially adaptable sorghum accessions from international ...
Figure 21.5 Potentially adaptable sorghum accessions from National gene ...
Figure 21.6 Potentially adaptable sorghum accessions from international ...
Figure 21.7 Potentially adaptable gene bank accessions of finger millet ...
Figure 21.8 Potentially adaptable international gene bank accessions of ...
Figure 21.9 Potentially adaptable national collections of cowpeas for pr...
Figure 21.10 Potentially adaptable international gene bank accessions of...
Figure 21.11 Potentially adaptable accessions of maize from national gen...
Figure 21.12 Potentially adaptable international gene bank collections o...
Guide
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Food Security and Climate Change
Edited by
Shyam S. Yadav
Freelance International Consultant in Agriculture, Manav Memorial Trust/ManavFoundation,Vikaspuri, New Delhi, IndiaandManav Mahal International School, Baghpat, Uttar Pradesh, India
Robert J. Redden
RJR Agricultural Consultants, Horsham, Victoria, Australia
Jerry L. Hatfield
USDA-ARS National Laboratory for Agriculture and the Environment, Ames, Iowa, USA
Andreas W. Ebert
Freelance International Consultant in Agriculture and Agrobiodiversity,Schwaebisch Gmuend, Germany
Danny Hunter
Healthy Diets from Sustainable Food Systems Initiative, Bioversity International,Rome, ItalyandPlant and Agricultural Biosciences Centre (PABC), National University of Ireland, Galway(NUIG)
Copyright
This edition first published 2019
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Library of Congress Cataloging‐in‐Publication Data
Names: Yadav, S. S. (Shyam S.), editor.
Title: Food security and climate change / edited by Shyam S. Yadav, Robert
J. Redden, Jerry L. Hatfield, Andreas W. Ebert, Danny Hunter.
Description: First edition. | Hoboken, NJ : John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, 2018. |
Includes bibliographical references and index. |
Identifiers: LCCN 2018014807 (print) | LCCN 2018027212 (ebook) | ISBN
9781119180630 (pdf) | ISBN 9781119180654 (epub) | ISBN 9781119180647
(cloth)
Subjects: LCSH: Crops and climate. | Food security–Climatic factors.
Classification: LCC S600.5 (ebook) | LCC S600.5 .F68 2018 (print) | DDC
630.2/515–dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2018014807
Cover Design: Wiley
Cover Images: ©ansonmiao/E+/Getty Images; ©danishkhan/iStock/Getty Images; ©no_limit_pictures/iStock/Getty Images; ©Juanillo1970/Shutterstock
List of Contributors
Michael Abberton
IITA Genetic Resources Centre International Institute of Tropical Agriculture
Ibadan
Nigeria
Elizabeth A. Ainsworth
USDA ARS Global Change and Photosynthesis Research Unit
Urbana
USA
Ahmed Amri
International Center for Agricultural Research in Dry Areas (ICARDA)
Rabat
Morocco
Kiruba Shankari Arun‐Chinnappa
Centre for Crop Health
University of Southern Queensland Toowoomba
Australia
Naresh Kumar Bainsla
Indian Agricultural Research Institute ICAR
New Delhi
India
Fenton D. Beed
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
Rome
Italy
Ranjan Bhattacharyya
Indian Agricultural Research Institute ICAR
New Delhi
India
Carlos Cantero‐Martinez
Department of Crop and Forestry Science, Agrotecnio
Universitat de Lleida
Lleida
Spain
Wuu‐Yang Chen
World Vegetable Center
Shanhua
Tainan
Taiwan
Gangadhar Karjagi Chikkappa
ICAR‐Indian Institute of Maize Research
New Delhi
India
Sain Dass
Ex Director Maize
Indian Council of Agricultural Research
New Delhi
India
Mahendra Dia
Department of Horticultural Sciences
North Carolina State University
Raleigh
North Carolina
USA
Thomas Dubois
World Vegetable Center, Eastern and Southern Africa
Duluti
Arusha
Tanzania
Sangam L. Dwivedi
International Crops Research Institute for the Semi‐Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)
Patancheru
Telangana
India
Andreas W. Ebert
Freelance International Consultant in Agriculture and Agrobiodiversity
Schwaebisch Gmuend
Germany
Kyla Finlay
Agriculture Victoria Research
Horsham
Victoria
Australia
Rebecca Ford
Environmental Futures Research Centre
Griffith University
Nathan
Queensland
Australia
Kiran Gaikwad
Indian Agricultural Research Institute ICAR
New Delhi
India
Otieno Gloria
Bioversity International Regional Office of Uganda
Kampala
Uganda
Abdul Basir Habibi
Afghanistan Agriculture Input Project Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation & Livestock, Kabul
Afghanistan
Bindumadhava Hanumantha Rao
World Vegetable Center South Asia
Greater Hyderabad
Telangana
India
Jerry L. Hatfield
National Laboratory for Agriculture and the Environment, USDA‐ARS
Ames
Iowa
USA
V. S. Hegde
Division of Genetics
Indian Agricultural Research Institute
Indian Council of Agricultural Research
New Delhi
India
Naoki Hirotsu
Tokyo University
Japan
Danny Hunter
Healthy Diets from Sustainable Food Systems Initiative Bioversity International
Rome
Italy
and
Plant and Agricultural Biosciences Centre (PABC)
National University of Ireland
Galway (NUIG)
S. L. Jat
ICAR‐Indian Institute of Maize Research
New Delhi
India
Mithila Jugulam
Department of Agronomy
Kansas State University
Manhattan
USA
Chutchamas Kanchana‐Udomkan
Environmental Futures Research Centre
Griffith University
Nathan
Queensland
Australia
Manjeet Kumar
Indian Agricultural Research Institute ICAR
New Delhi
India
Sanjeet Kumar
World Vegetable Center
Shanhua
Tainan
Taiwan
Vincent Lebot
CIRAD‐AGAP
Vanuatu
Pauline Lemonnier
USDA ARS Global Change and Photosynthesis Research Unit
Urbana
USA
Li Ling
Legume breeder
Liaoning Institute of Cash Crops
Liaoyang
Liaoning Province
China
Ravza Mavlyanova
World Vegetable Center, Central Asia and the Caucasus
Tashkent
Uzbekistan
Andrew McGregor
Koko Siga Pacific
Fiji
Yasir Mehmood
Environmental Futures Research Centre
Griffith University
Nathan
Queensland
Australia
M. Inés Mínguez
Centre for The Management of Agricultural and Environmental Risk (CEIGRAM‐ETSIAAB‐UPM)
Technical University of Madrid
Madrid
Spain
Lois Wright Morton
Department of Sociology
Iowa State University
Ames
Iowa
Ramakrishnan M. Nair
World Vegetable Center South Asia
Greater Hyderabad
Telangana
India
Usana Nantawan
Environmental Futures Research Centre
Griffith University
Nathan
Queensland
Australia
Harsh Nayyar
Department of Botany
Panjab University
Chandigarh
India
James G. Nuttall
Agriculture Victoria Research
Department of Economic Development Jobs, Transport and Resources
Horsham
Victoria
Australia
Garry J. O'Leary
Agriculture Victoria Research, Department of Economic Development Jobs, Transport and Resources
Horsham
Victoria
Australia
Rodomiro Ortiz
Department of Plant Breeding
Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU)
Sundsvagen
Alnarp
Sweden
C.M. Parihar
ICAR‐Indian Agricultural Research Institute
New Delhi
India
Marti Pottorff
Department of Botany and Plant Sciences University of California
Riverside
USA
P.V.V. Prasad
Department of Agronomy
Kansas State University
Manhattan
USA
Srinivasan Ramasamy
World Vegetable Center
Shanhua
Tainan
Taiwan
Robert J. Redden (Retired)
RJR Agricultural Consultants
Horsham
Victoria
Australia
James J. Riley
College of Agriculture and Life Sciences University of Arizona
Tucson
USA
S. Seneweera
Centre for Crop Health
University of Southern Queensland
Toowoomba
Australia
and
National Institute of Fundamental Studies (NIFS)
Kandy
Sri Lanka
Toshiro Shigaki
Laboratory of Plant Pathology
University of Tokyo
Tokyo
Japan
Jessica Sokolow
Research Associate
The Cabrera Research Lab
Ithaca
New York
and
The College of Human Ecology
Cornell Institute of Public Affairs
Cornell University
Ithaca
New York
Mary Taylor
University of the Sunshine Coast
Queensland
Australia
Abdou Tenkouano
CORAF/WECARD
Dakar‐RP
Senegal
Timothy S. Thomas
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
Washington, DC
USA
Tony McDonald
Institute of Land Water and Society
Charles Sturt University
Australia
Piotr Trębicki
Agriculture Victoria Research
Horsham
Victoria
Australia
Hari Upadyaya
International Crops Research Institute for the Semi‐Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)
Patancheru
Telangana
India
Vincent Vadez
International Crops Research Institute for the Semi‐Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)
Patancheru
Telangana
India
Aruna K. Varanasi
Department of Agronomy
Kansas State University
Manhattan
USA
Vijaya K. Varanasi
Department of Agronomy
Kansas State University
Manhattan
USA
Suman Verma
Government Holkar Science College
Devi Ahilya Vishwavidyalaya
Indor
India
Jaw‐Fen Wang
Department of Agronomy
National Taiwan University
Taipei
Taiwan
Rajbir Yadav
Indian Agricultural Research Institute ICAR
New Delhi
India
Shyam S. Yadav
Manav Foundation
Vikaspuri
New Delhi
India
and
Manav Mahal International School
Lohara
Ami Nagar Sarai
Baghpat
Uttar Pradesh
India
Xuxiao Zong
CAAS
China
1Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
Shyam S. Yadav1,6, V. S. Hegde2, Abdul Basir Habibi3, Mahendra Dia4 and Suman Verma4
1Manav Foundation, Vikaspuri, New Delhi, India
2Division of Genetics, Indian Agricultural Research Institute, Indian Council of Agricultural Research, New Delhi, India
3Afghanistan Agriculture Input Project, Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation & Livestock, Kabul, Afghanistan
4Department of Horticultural Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA
5Government Holkar Science College, Devi Ahilya Vishwavidyalaya, Indore, India
6Manav Mahal International School, Lohara, Ami Nagar Sarai, Baghpat, Uttar Pradesh, India
1.1 Introduction
During recent years, worldwide heavy rainfalls and floods, forest fires, occurrences, and the spread of new diseases, as found in the new strains of different pathogens and viruses, abnormal bacterial growth, and higher incidences of insect pests are direct indications of drastic environmental changes globally. It is now well established and documented that anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are the main reason for the climate change at global level. It is also well recognized that agriculture sectors are directly affected by changes in temperature, precipitation, and carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in the atmosphere. Thus, early and bold measures are needed to minimize the potentially drastic climate impacts on the production and productivity of various field crops. In most of the developing countries in Africa, Asia, and Asia Pacific regions, about 70% of the population depend directly or indirectly for its livelihood on the agriculture sector and most of this population lives in arid or semiarid regions, which are already characterized by highly volatile climate conditions (Yadav et al., 2015).
Food, from staple cereal grains to high protein legumes and oilseed crops, is central to human development and well‐being (Misselhorn et al., 2012); however, the complexity of global food security is challenging and will be made more so under climate change. The world continues to face huge difficulties in securing adequate food that is healthy, safe, and of high nutritional quality for all (Redden et al., 2014a). Considering the complexity of climatic change, the crop, plants, and livestock are inherently affected by too much or too little water, too high or too low temperatures, the length of the growing season, seasonal variation, other climatic extremes, etc.
If we consider weather extremes during 2010 – 11, in Russia there were severe heat waves and approximately 30% of grain crops were lost due to burning, which resulted in huge losses to the Russian economy. Likewise, in Pakistan, the worst floods in 80 years of history occurred, and it was suggested in different media reports that one–fifth of the country area and more than 14% of cultivated land were submerged. Considering the Indian weather scenarios during recent years some parts are having good rains and some parts are under drought and cultivation of many field crops is difficult in those areas and crop productivity is adversely affected.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defined “climate change as any change in climate over a time period that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and this change might be due to natural climate variability or a result of human activity”. According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) climate change refers to “a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods”. Human activities, most importantly the burning of fossil fuels, natural causes, industrialization, and changes in land use are modifying the concentrations of atmospheric constituents or properties of the surface that absorb or scatter radiant energy. The majority of the warming observed over the last 50 years was likely due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations (IPCC, 2001) and future changes in climate are expected to include additional warming, changes in the amount of rainfall and its distribution pattern, rise in sea‐level, and increased frequency and intensity of some climate extreme events such as flood, drought, and temperature severity.
According to the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (Nakic'enovic' and Swart, 2000), the carbon dioxide concentration (CO2) in the atmosphere which was 284 ppm in 1832 will increase to approximately 550 ppm by 2050. This, in combination with other changes in the atmosphere, is likely to change the Earth's climate, making it warmer by an average of 1.80C to 4.00C by the end of this century (IPCC, 2007). The temperature increase is widespread over the globe, and is greater at higher northern latitudes, while land regions have warmed faster than the oceans. This warming will increase the evapotranspiration of water from wet surfaces and plants, leading to increased but more variable distribution of precipitation. The concentration of ozone (O3) will also increase as a result of industrialization and this will have a negative impact on crop growth and productivity. The global average sea level has risen since 1961 at an average rate of 1·8 mm/year and since 1993 at 3·1 mm/year with contributions from thermal expansion, melting glaciers and ice caps, and the polar ice sheets (IPCC, 2007). The annual average Arctic sea ice extent has shrunken by 2·7% per decade, with larger decreases in summer of 7·4% per decade. Mountain glaciers and snow cover on an average have declined in both hemispheres (IPCC,2007). These general features of climate change act on natural and biological systems. The changes in climate, particularly increases in temperature have already affected a wide range of physical and biological systems in many aquatic, terrestrial and marine environments in various parts of the world. The climate change will increase the risks of extinction of more vulnerable species and loss of biodiversity. The extent of damage or loss and the number of systems affected would increase with the magnitude and rate of climate change. The human systems that are sensitive to climate change mainly include water resources, agriculture and forestry, coastal zones and marine systems, human settlements, and human health. The extent of the vulnerability of these systems depends on the geographical location and environmental conditions. The projected adverse impacts of climate change on human systems (IPCC, 2001) include: i) a general reduction in potential yields of crops in most of the tropical and sub‐tropical regions for increases in atmospheric temperature; ii) a general reduction in potential crop yields in most of the regions in Mid‐latitudes due to increases in annual average temperature of more than a few 0C; iii) decreased availability of potable water for populations in many water‐scarce regions, particularly in the Sub‐tropics; iv) increased incidences of vector‐borne and water‐borne diseases and an increase in heat‐stress mortality; v) increased risk of flooding for many human settlements because of increased occurrences of heavy precipitation and also a rise in the sea‐level; and vi) a general increase in the demand for energy due to higher summer temperatures in different parts of the world. Climate change is also known to have some beneficial effects on the human system (IPCC, 2001). The positive impacts of climate change include: i) an increase in the potential yields of some crops in some of the regions in Mid‐altitudes for increases in temperatures of less than a few 0C; ii) a potential increase in global supply of timber from well managed forests; iii) an increase in the availability of water in some water‐scarce regions in some parts of Southeast Asia; iv) A decrease in the winter‐mortality in mid‐ and high altitudes; and v) reduced demand for energy due to higher winter temperatures.
1.1.1 Climate Change and Agriculture
The world population will continue to grow and is expected to reach 9.1 billion by 2050 (Charles et al. 2010). The total food production will have to be increased by 70–100%, if all these people are to be fed sufficiently (Smil, 2005; World Development Report, 2008). Increasing food production to feed this ever‐increasing world population in a sustainable way is a great challenge, moreso at a time of rapid environmental change with rising temperatures and extreme climate events threatening food production globally. Agriculture is inherently sensitive to climate variability and change, as a result of either natural causes or human activities (Wheeler and Braun, 2013). Climate change caused by emissions of greenhouse gases is expected to directly influence crop production systems for food, feed, or fodder; to affect livestock health; and to alter the pattern and balance of trade of food and food products. Climate change has already started affecting agricultural growth and these impacts will vary with the degree of warming and associated changes in rainfall patterns, as well as from one location to another. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2014), climate variations affect crop production in several regions of the world, with negative effects more common than positive, and developing countries highly vulnerable to further negative impacts. Climate change is estimated to have already reduced global yields of maize and wheat by 3.8% and 5.5% respectively (Lobell et al., 2011), and several researchers predicted steep decreases in crop productivity when atmospheric temperatures exceed critical physiological thresholds of agricultural crops (Battisti and Naylor, 2009; Wheeler et al., 2000).
Climate change is already happening and represents one of the greatest environmental and societal threats facing the planet and our own existence. With the Paris Agreement on Climate Change in force this month and the skeptics who threaten its implementation, the time for bold and unprecedented action has never been more critical. For the livelihoods of the so‐called “forgotten billion”, who live in dryland, on the margins of environmental sustainability, and where the harshest climate change scenarios are the fact of life, such action is vital!It is expected that drylands will expand by 11% by 2100 due to climate change. Fifteen out of 24 ecosystem services are already in decline, making drylands increasingly unproductive. About 10% of drylands are already degraded, and more land will continue to degrade in the upcoming years. Yet, drylands and agricultural research in drylands do not receive much attention or investment from the wider community of scientific research, development agencies, policy makers, or the private sector. This is in part due to huge misconceptions or oversimplifications socioeconomic factors, and the valuable things we can learn about climate change mitigation and adaptation from examining the complex interactions of these factors in drylands.
1.1.2 Impact of Dioxide on Crop Productivity
An important change for agriculture system is increased concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. As per the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), the atmospheric CO2 concentration is projected to increase to >550 ppm by 2050 and 800 ppm by 2100. Higher concentrations of CO2 will have a positive effect on many crops resulting in enhanced accumulation of biomass and the overall yield. However, the magnitude of this effect varies depending on type of management of crop (e.g. irrigation and fertilization regimes) and also crop type. Experimental yield response to elevated CO2 show that under optimal growth conditions, crop yields increase at 550 ppm CO2 in the range of 10% to 20% for C3 crops (such as wheat, rice, and soybean), and only 0–10% for C4 crops such as maize and sorghum (IPCC, 2007). It has been projected that in the next few decades, CO2 trends will be likely to increase global crop yields approximately by 1.8% per decade. The impact of climate change on nutritional quality of agricultural produce is not properly understood. However, some cereal and forage crops, for example, show lower protein concentrations under elevated CO2 conditions (IPCC, 2001).
Some aspects of global climate change are expected to benefit agriculture. It has been projected that in the next few decades CO2 trends will likely increase global crop yields by roughly 1.8% per decade (IPCC, 2001). The increasing concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere can have a positive impact on the rate of photosynthesis, particularly in C3 plants. Rising CO2 is estimated to account for approximately 0.3% of the observed 1% increase in global wheat production (Fischer and Edmeades, 2010). The free air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) experiments have shown that the average yield increase of C3 species was 11%, but no significant responses in case of C4 species such as maize and sorghum (Long et al., 2005). The CO2 affects the water use by crop plants because higher concentrations cause partial closure of stomata, and the decrease in the aperture of stomata reduces the rate of water consumption. The FACE experiments in potatoes have shown that CO2 enrichment increased tuber yield by 43%, decreased water consumption by 11%, and as a result increased the water use efficiency (WUE) by about 70% (Magliulo et al., 2003). In a similar experiment on sugar beet, it was found that the amount of water consumed during the growing season reduced by 20% while yield increased by 8% (Manderscheid et, al., 2010). The magnitude of increased CO2 effects on dry matter production depends upon the illumination conditions, water availability, N supply, and the transport and storage of the photosynthates (Jaggard, et al., 2010). In all cases of FACE experiments, the relative response to enriched CO2 was generally positive when the Nitrogen amount applied was inadequate, as in the case of wheat (Kimball, et al., 1999), rice (Kim et al., 2003). Thus, the enriched CO2 atmosphere should help to sustain the crop yield even when the use of nitrogenous fertilizer is restricted to protect the environment.
1.1.3 Impact of Ozone on Crop Productivity
Ozone (O3) in the atmosphere is concentrated mostly in the upper layers of the atmosphere (Stratosphere) where it absorbs UV radiation. It is also present in the lowest layer of the atmosphere, called the troposphere or the Earth's surface. Tropospheric O3 is a spatially and temporally dynamic air pollutant as well as a powerful greenhouse gas (Ainsworth, 2017). As a result of increased industrialization and human activities Tropospheric O3 has risen from approximately 100 ppb in the late 1800s to monthly average daytime concentrations exceeding 40–50 ppb at present (Monks et al., 2015). This increased concentration of O3 in the atmosphere has made it the third most potent anthropogenic greenhouse gas after CO2 and methane (IPCC, 2013).
The distribution of O3 over the land surface is not uniform globally. It varies from region to region and also from season to season within the region. Ozone concentrations vary from about 20 ppb in parts of Asia, the Middle East, Europe and North America (Gillespie et al., 2012). According to Ramankutty et al. (2008), croplands in parts of China, India, and the USA are exposed to higher concentrations of O3 than croplands in Australia or Brazil. In India, O3 concentrations are the highest during the spring (Rabi) crop growing season (October – April) with 8 h daily concentrations reaching 100 ppb (Roy et al., 2009). Unlike India, O3 concentrations in the Corn Belt of the Mid‐west USA are at the maximum during the summer growing season (Huang, et al., 2007). In India, O3 concentrations increased 20% from 1990 to 2013 and in the case of China its concentrations increased 13% over the same period (Brauer et al., 2016). Thus, many of the world's most productive crop growing regions are exposed to continuously increasing concentrations of O3 resulting in an adverse impact on agricultural productivity and hence food security.
Yield reductions owing to ozone pollution can start at concentrations as low as 20 ppb (Ashmore, 2002). The higher concentrations of O3 during crop growing seasons found to have significant negative impact on crop yields (Burney and Ramanathan, 2014). Feng and Kobayashi (2009) found that by 2050 probable yield reductions will be 8.9%, 9% and 17.5% for barley, wheat and rice, whereas 19.0 and 7.7% for bean and soybean, respectively. Globally, it is estimated that 4–15% of wheat yields, 3–4% of rice yields, 2–5% of maize yields and 5–15% of soybean yields are lost to O3 pollution (van Dingenen et al., 2009; Avnery et al., 2011). In the absence of stricter air pollution control, it is projected that increased O3 will further reduce wheat yields by 8.1–9.4% in China and 5.4–7.7% in India by 2020 (Tang et al., 2013). Tai et al. (2014) found that increased O3 pollution in South Asia could reduce wheat production as high as 40% in 2050. Such a trend would lead to increased demand for land area devoted to crops by as much as 8.9% in Asia in order to meet the increasing demand for food (Chuwah et al., 2015). The magnitude of negative impact of O3 on crop yield depends on the growing season temperature and water availability, and during dry years yield reductions in soybean and maize ranged from 10–20%, depending on growing season temperature (McGrath et al., 2015). Crops can experience both high background O3 concentrations throughout the growing season (termed chronic exposure) as well as acute O3 stress when concentrations exceed approximately 100 ppb that can lead to hypersensitive response and induction of cell death. By 2050 the impact of rising O3 is likely to eliminate most of the beneficial effects of yield increase due to increasing CO2 in C3 crops and cause a yield decrease of at least 5% in C4 species (Nelson, et al., 2009). As a result of the dynamic nature of O3, there may be little potential for adaptation of crops to rising O3 concentrations in the atmosphere through altered crop management practices (Teixeira et al., 2011). However, the studies with rice indicate that there is scope to select for reduced O3 sensitivity. Therefore, recent efforts are focused on breeding and biotechnological approaches for genetically improving crops that can tolerate and respond to higher concentrations of Tropospheric O3 (Ainsworth, 2008; Frei, 2015).
1.1.4 Impact of Temperature and a Changed Climate on Crop Productivity
The temperature variations and changes in the amount and distribution of rainfall associated with increased CO2 concentration and continued emissions of greenhouse gases will bring about changes in land suitability for crop cultivation and crop yields. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007), global mean surface temperature is projected to rise in a range from 1.8°C to 4.0°C by 2100. In temperate latitudes, higher temperatures are expected to be beneficial to agriculture and as a result the area under agricultural cropping is likely to increase. The length of the growing period will also increase at higher latitudes and because of which there may be increased accumulation of biomass resulting in higher crop yields (Parry et al., 2004. Fisher et al. (2005) predicted that world cereal production will increase from 1.8 Gt to between 3.7 and 4.8 Gt by 2080 and much of this increase will be the result of cropping on an additional 320 million ha in the Northern Hemisphere. However, in low latitudes crop yields are likely to decrease, mainly because of increased temperature which shortens the period for grain filling and sometimes stresses the plants at the time of flowering and seed‐set. A moderate incremental warming in some humid and temperate grassland may increase pasture productivity and reduce the need for housing and for compound feed (Rosenzweig et al., 2002). There may also be reduced livestock productivity and increased livestock mortality in semi‐arid and arid pastures. In drier areas, there may be increased evapotranspiration and lower soil moisture levels (IPCC, 2001) and because of which some existing cultivated areas may become unsuitable for cropping and some tropical grassland may become increasingly arid. Temperature rise will also expand the range of many agricultural pests and diseases and increase the ability of pest populations to survive the winter and attack spring crops. In general, warming trends are likely to reduce global yields by about 1.5% per decade in the absence of effective adaptation. Thus, the increases in the atmospheric temperature are likely to impact adversely against the advantages of increasing concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere. Extreme weather events are more likely to happen in the changed climate of the future (Gornall et al., 2010).
1.2 Climate Change and Food Security
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) defines food security as a “situation which exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social, and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”. This definition of the FAO involves four important dimensions of food supplies: availability, stability, access, and utilization (Schmidhuber and Tubiello, 2007). The “availability” refers to the availability of food of appropriate quality in sufficient quantities, supplied either through domestic production or imports. The “stability” relates to the stable access to food as per the demand because to be food secure, a population, household or individuals must have access to adequate amounts of food at all times. The third dimension, “access”, involves access by individuals to adequate resources in order to acquire appropriate foods in sufficient quantity for a nutritious diet. Finally, “utilization” encompasses all food safety and quality aspects of nutrition. In other words, utilization of food through adequate diet, clean water, sanitation, and health care to reach a state of nutritional well‐being where all physiological needs are met.
Agriculture is not only a source of the food but also a source of income for the majority of the population. Therefore, the critical point for food security is not whether food is available in sufficient quantity but the monetary and non‐monetary resources at the disposal of the population that are sufficient to allow everyone access to adequate quantities of quality food. Climate change will affect all four dimensions of food security such as food availability or food production, access to food, stability of food supplies, and food utilization (FAO, 2006). About 2 billion out of the global population of over 7 billion is food insecure because they fall short of one or several of FAOs dimensions of food security. However, the overall impact of climate change on food security differs from region to region and over time, and also on the overall socioeconomic conditions of the population (IPCC, 2001).
1.2.1 Climate Change and Food Availability
Climate change affects agriculture and food production in complex ways. It affects food production directly through changes in agroecological conditions and indirectly by affecting growth and distribution of incomes, and thus demand for agricultural produce. The response of crop yield to climatic variations depend mainly on the species, cultivar grown, soil conditions, direct effect of CO2 on plants, and other location specific factors. The climatic changes such as atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and O3 and temperature and rainfall pattern are projected to directly influence the rates of improvement in agricultural productivity and food availability and thereby global food security in the future. Rosenzweig and Parry (1994) found that enhanced concentrations of atmospheric CO2 increase the productivity of most crops through increasing the rate of leaf photosynthesis and improving the efficiency of water use. According to them, there is a large degree of spatial variation in crop yields across the globe. In general, yields increased in Northern Europe but decreased across Africa and South America (Parry et al., 2004). Crop yields are also more negatively affected across most tropical areas than at higher latitudes and impacts become more severe with an increasing degree of climate change. Furthermore, large parts of the world where crop productivity is expected to decline under climate change coincide with countries that currently have a high burden of hunger (World Bank, 2010). Wheeler and Braun (2013) concluded that there was a robust and coherent pattern of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity globally and hence, on food availability. They projected that climate change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas that already have a high prevalence of hunger and under nutrition. A recent systematic review of changes in the yields of the major crops grown across Africa and South Asia under climate change found that average crop yields may decline across both regions by 8% by the 2050s (Knox et al., 2012). Across Africa, yields are predicted to change by –17% (wheat), –5% (maize), –15% (sorghum), and –10% (millet) and across South Asia by –16% (maize) and –11% (sorghum) under climate change. No mean change in yield was detected for rice. Knox et al. (2012) concluded that evidence for the impact of climate change on crop productivity in Africa and South Asia is robust for wheat, maize, sorghum, and millet, and inconclusive, absent, or contradictory for rice, cassava, and sugarcane.
1.2.2 Climate Change and Stability of Food Production
The stability of food production ensures supply of food in sufficient quantity as per the demand at all the time. Global climatic conditions are expected to become more variable than at present, with increases in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events such as cyclones, floods, hailstorms, and droughts. Such extreme weather events can adversely affect the stability of food production and therefore food security by bringing greater year‐to‐year fluctuations in crop yields. It is projected that the areas subject to high climate variability are likely to expand in future, whereas the extent of short‐term climate variability is likely to increase across all regions globally. Droughts and floods are the dominant causes of short term fluctuations in food production in semi‐arid and sub‐humid areas of the world. If climate fluctuations become more pronounced and more widespread, such extreme events will become more and more severe and more frequent. In semi‐arid areas, droughts can drastically reduce crop yields and livestock numbers and their productivity (IPCC, 2001). The sub‐Saharan Africa and parts of South Asia are more prone to such climatic variations, meaning that the poorest regions with the highest level of chronic undernourishment in the world will also be exposed to the highest degree of instability in food production (Bruinsma, 2003).
1.2.3 Climate Change and Access to Food
Access to food refers to the ability of individuals, communities, and countries to purchase sufficient quantities of quality food as per their demand. Over the last 30 years, falling real prices for food and rising real incomes have led to substantial improvements in access to food in many of the developing countries. This increased purchasing power has allowed a growing number of people to purchase not only more food, but also more nutritious food with higher contents of protein, micronutrients and vitamins (Schmidhuber and Shetty, 2005). East Asia and to a lesser extent the Near‐East/North African region have particularly benefited from a combination of lower real food prices and robust income growth (FAO, 2006). In both regions, improvements in access to food have been crucial in reducing hunger and malnutrition. Fischer et al. (2005
