Hydrometeorological Hazards E-Book

• Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
• Kategorie: Wissenschaft und neue Technologien
• Serie: Hydrometeorological Extreme Events
• Sprache: Englisch

Seitenzahl: 666

Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2014

Beschreibung

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL EXTREME EVENTS

Hydrometeorological Hazards:

Interfacing Science and Policy

Recent hydrometeorological extreme events have highlighted the increased exposure and vulnerability of societies and the need to strengthen the knowledge-base of related policies. Current research is focused on improving forecasting, prediction and early warning capabilities in order to improve the assessment of vulnerability and risks linked to extreme climatic events.

Hydrometeorological Hazards: Interfacing Science and Policy is the first volume of a series which will gather scientific and policy-related knowledge on climate-related extreme events. Invited authors are internationally recognized experts in their respective fields. This volume reflects the most recent advances in science and policy within this field and takes a multidisciplinary approach. The book provides the reader with a state-of-the art account of flash floods, droughts, storms, and a comprehensive discussion focused on the cost of natural hazards, resilience and adaptation.

This book will be an invaluable reference for advanced undergraduates taking courses with a focus on natural hazards, including climate-related extreme events. The book will also be of interest to postgraduates, researchers and policymakers in this field looking for an overview of the subject.

Leseprobe

Table of Contents

Forthcoming titles in the Series

Title Page

Copyright

Series Foreword

Preface

The Series Editor – Philippe Quevauviller

List of Contributors

Part One: Setting the Scene

Chapter 1.1: Strengthened Resilience from Historic Experience. European Societies Confronted with Hydrometeors in the Sixteenth to Twentieth Centuries

1.1.1 Introduction

1.1.2 Five centuries of droughts

1.1.3 The European coast confronted with surges: A first ever?

1.1.4 A memory of risk or a culture of survival?

1.1.5 Conclusion

References

Chapter 1.2: Current Understanding of Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Events

1.2.1 Introduction

1.2.2 Global water balance, past and future

1.2.3 Global extremes – Rainfall, floods and droughts

1.2.4 Future global predictions

1.2.5 Regional drought and water resources

1.2.6 Case study: Science to support policy for flood management under climate change

1.2.7 Adaptation planning

1.2.8 Concluding remarks

References

Chapter 1.3: Features Common to Different Hydrometeorological Events and Knowledge Integration

1.3.1 Introduction

1.3.2 Extreme hydrometeorological events and disasters: An increasing trend

1.3.3 Integrating disaster risk management and climate change adaptation

1.3.4 Predicting disasters: Dealing with uncertainties and scales

1.3.5 Better understanding system exposure at the hazard

1.3.6 Resilience: From concept to operation

1.3.7 Learning from experience

1.3.8 Risk governance: Responsibility and participation

1.3.9 Risk communication

1.3.10 A roadmap towards a sustainable future

References

Chapter 1.4: Science and Policy Interfacing

1.4.1 Introduction

1.4.2 Taking account of the knowledge base

1.4.3 Concept of science and policy interfacing

1.4.4 Matching research with policy needs

1.4.5 Research–policy interactions

1.4.6 Conclusions

References

Part Two: Policy Settings

Chapter 2.1: When Science Meets Policy: Enhancing Governance and Management of Disaster Risks

2.1.1 Science and disaster risk management

2.1.2 Knowledge-based policy

2.1.3 The science–policy interface in practice

2.1.4 Evidence-based disaster risk policies

2.1.5 Climate research and disaster economics: Two scientific pillars of governance of disaster risks

2.1.6 Conclusions

References

Chapter 2.2: Hydrometeorological Extremes and the Science–policy Interface: IPCC

2.2.1 Introduction

2.2.2 IPCC at the interface of science and policy

2.2.3 Evolution of IPCC over 25 years

2.2.4 IPCC SREX messages in a nutshell

2.2.5 Final remarks—AR5 is there

Acknowledgements

References

Chapter 2.3: A Snapshot of EU and International Policies Relevant to Hydrometeorological Events

2.3.1 Introduction—A complex policy framework

2.3.2 Climate change impacts on water

2.3.3 Policy background

2.3.4 International policies

2.3.5 EU water policies

2.3.6 Climate adaptation strategy

2.3.7 Conclusions

References

Part Three: Outline of Scientific Features

Chapter 3.1: Hydroinformatics and Its Role in Flood Management

3.1.1 Background

3.1.2 Flood management in water-related activities

3.1.3 Why hydroinformatics?

3.1.4 Towards integrated flood management

3.1.5 Hydroinformatics and floods

3.1.6 Flood maps production

3.1.7 Real-time systems for decisions support

3.1.8 Emerging trends for higher efficiency

3.1.9 High resolution data and high resolution hydraulic modelling

3.1.10 From centralised to distributed and ubiquitous architecture

3.1.11 Perspectives in conclusion

Acknowledgement

References

Chapter 3.2: Drought: How to be Prepared for the Hazard?

3.2.1 Introduction

3.2.2 Drought: Generating processes and identification

3.2.3 Trends in drought

3.2.4 Monitoring, management and early warning

3.2.5 Drought impacts and policy

Acknowledgements

References

Chapter 3.3: Drought in the Light of Climate Change in the Mediterranean Area

3.3.1 Introduction

3.3.2 The limits of rainfall

3.3.3 Estimating drought vulnerability

3.3.4 From drought vulnerability to drought management

3.3.5 Looking into the future

3.3.6 Conclusions

Acknowledgements

References

Chapter 3.4: Prediction of Storm Impacts on Beach and Dune Systems

3.4.1 Introduction

3.4.2 Coastal storm definitions

3.4.3 The storm impact scale

3.4.4 Analytical methods of hazard definition

3.4.5 Modelling of storm impacts

3.4.6 Storm impact indicators, early warning systems and disaster risk reduction

3.4.7 Conclusions

Acknowledgements

References

Part Four: Social and Economic Considerations

Chapter 4.1: Assessing the Costs of Natural Hazards – State of the Art and the Way Forward

4.1.1 Introduction

4.1.2 State of the art of cost assessment for natural hazards – An overview

4.1.3 Conclusions and the way forward

References

Chapter 4.2: Resilience and Adaptation to Hydrometeorological Hazards

4.2.1 Introduction

4.2.2 Resilience

4.2.3 Discussion

4.2.4 Conclusions

Acknowledgements

References

Part Five: Social and Economic Considerations

Chapter 5: Conclusions, Outlook

5.1 Contextual developments

5.2 Scientific developments

5.3 Outlook

Index

End User License Agreement

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Guide

Cover

Table of Contents

Preface

Part One: Setting the Scene

Begin Reading

List of Illustrations

Figure 1.1.1

Figure 1.1.2

Figure 1.1.3

Figure 1.1.4

Figure 1.1.5

Figure 1.1.6

Figure 1.1.7

Figure 1.1.8

Figure 1.1.9

Figure 1.1.10

Figure 1.1.11

Figure 1.1.12

Figure 1.1.13

Figure 1.1.14

Figure 1.1.15

Figure 1.2.1

Figure 1.2.2

Figure 1.2.3

Figure 1.2.4

Figure 1.2.5

Figure 1.2.6

Figure 1.3.1

Figure 1.3.2

Figure 1.3.3

Figure 1.3.4

Figure 1.3.5

Figure 1.3.6

Figure 1.4.1

Figure 1.4.2

Figure 2.1.1

Figure 2.1.2

Figure 2.2.1

Figure 2.3.1

Figure 2.3.2

Figure 2.3.3

Figure 3.1.1

Figure 3.1.2

Figure 3.1.3

Figure 3.1.4

Figure 3.1.5

Figure 3.1.6

Figure 3.1.7

Figure 3.2.1

Figure 3.2.2

Figure 3.2.3

Figure 3.2.4

Figure 3.2.5

Figure 3.2.6

Figure 3.2.7

Figure 3.2.8

Figure 3.2.9

Figure 3.2.10

Figure 3.2.11

Figure 3.2.12

Figure 3.2.13

Figure 3.2.14

Figure 3.2.15

Figure 3.3.1

Figure 3.3.2

Figure 3.3.3

Figure 3.3.4

Figure 3.4.1

Figure 3.4.2

Figure 3.4.3

Figure 3.4.4

Figure 3.4.5

Figure 4.1.1

Figure 4.1.2

Figure 4.1.3

Figure 4.1.4

Figure 4.1.5

Figure 4.1.6

Figure 4.1.7

Figure 4.1.8

Figure 4.1.9

Figure 4.1.10

List of Tables

Table 1.1.1

Table 1.1.2

Table 1.1.3

Table 1.2.1

Table 1.3.1

Table 2.3.1

Table 3.3.1

Table 3.3.2

Table 3.3.3

Table 3.3.4

Table 4.1.1

Table 4.1.2

Table 4.1.3

Table 4.1.4

Table 4.1.5

Table 4.1.6

Table 4.2.1

Table 4.2.2

Table 4.2.3

Forthcoming titles in the Series

Flash Floods Early Warning Systems: Policy and Practice by Daniel Sempere-Torres

Coastal Storms: From Forecasting to Prediction by Paolo Ciavola and Giovanni Coco

Hydrometeorological Hazards

Interfacing Science and Policy

Edited by

Philippe Quevauviller

Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB)

Department of Hydrology and Hydrological Engineering

Brussels, Belgium

This edition first published 2015 © 2015 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

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Cover image: Big waves © johnnorth / iStockphoto

1 2015

Series Foreword

The increasing frequency and severity of hydrometeorological extreme events are reported in many studies and surveys, including the 5th IPCC Assessment Report. This report and other sources highlight the increasing probability that these events are partly driven by climate change, while other causes are linked to the increased exposure and vulnerability of societies in exposed areas (which are not only due to climate change but also to mismanagement of risks and “lost memories” about them). Efforts are on-going to enhance today's forecasting, prediction and early warning capabilities in order to improve the assessment of vulnerability and risks and develop adequate prevention, mitigation and preparedness measures.

The Book Series on “Hydrometeorological Extreme Events” has the ambition to gather available knowledge in this area, taking stock of research and policy developments at an international level. While individual publications exist on specific hazards, the proposed series is the first of its kind to propose an enlarged coverage of various extreme events that are generally studied by different (not necessarily interconnected) research teams.

The Series encompasses several volumes dealing with various aspects of hydrometeorological extreme events, primarily discussing science–policy interfacing issues, and developing specific discussions about floods, coastal storms (including storm surges), droughts, resilience and adaptation. While the books are looking at the crisis management cycle as a whole, the focus of the discussions is generally oriented towards the knowledge base of the different events, prevention and preparedness, early warning and improved prediction systems.

The involvement of internationally renowned scientists (from different horizons and disciplines) behind the knowledge base of hydrometeorological events makes this series unique in this respect. The overall series will provide a multidisciplinary description of various scientific and policy features concerning hydrometeorological extreme events, as written by authors from different countries, making it a truly international book series.

The book on ‘Prevention of hydrometeorological extreme events—Interfacing sciences and policies’ is the first book of this Series; it has been written by policy-makers and scientific experts in the field. It offers the reader an overview of EU and international policies, discussions on science–policy interfacing, and a snapshot of the knowledge base of various types of events which are developed in separate volumes of the Series.

Philippe QuevauvillerSeries Editor

Preface

Recent hydrometeorological extreme events (e.g. the Xynthia storm in France, the Liguria flash floods) have highlighted the increased exposure and vulnerability of societies and the need to strengthen the knowledge base of related policies. In particular, research undertakings are constantly enhancing forecasting, prediction and early warning capabilities in order to improve the assessment of vulnerability and risks linked to extreme climatic events, as well as to develop adequate prevention, mitigation and preparedness measures. These concern events such as extreme winds, storm surges, coastal and estuarine floods, taking into consideration the effects of climate change, which are threats faced by many countries in the world. In this respect, international policies and research cooperation are in full development, leading to new knowledge, innovative, cost-effective, technological or non-technological solutions and ecosystem-based approaches, as well as new forms of organisational and institutional/governance.

The book Prevention of Hydrometeorological Extreme Events – Interfacing Sciences and Policies is the first volume of a series which will gather scientific and policy-related knowledge related to climate-related extreme events. Invited authors are internationally recognised experts in their respective fields, who have built up worldwide networks in the framework of EU-funded research programmes. The present volume and the following ones in the series will hence reflect the most recent science and policy advances in the field.

Philippe Quevauviller

The Series Editor – Philippe Quevauviller

Philippe Quevauviller began his research activities in 1983 at the University of Bordeaux I, France, studying lake geochemistry. Between 1984 and 1987 he was Associate Researcher at the Portuguese Environment State Secretary where he performed a multidisciplinary study (sedimentology, geomorphology and geochemistry) of the coastal environment of the Galé coastline and of the Sado Estuary, which was the topic of his PhD degree in Oceanography gained in 1987 (at the University of Bordeaux I). In 1988, he became Associate Researcher in the framework of a contract between the University of Bordeaux I and the Dutch Ministry for Public Works (Rijskwaterstaat), in which he investigated organotin contamination levels of Dutch coastal environments and waterways. From this research work, he gained another PhD in chemistry at the University of Bordeaux I in 1990. From 1989 to 2002, he worked at the European Commission (DG Research) in Brussels where he managed various Research and Technological Development (RTD) projects in the field of quality assurance, analytical method development and pre-normative research for environmental analyses in the framework of the Standards, Measurements and Testing Programme. In 1999, he obtained an HDR (Diplôme d'Habilitation à Diriger des Recherches) in chemistry at the University of Pau, France, from a study of the quality assurance of chemical species' determination in the environment.

In 2002, he left the research world to move to the policy sector at the EC Environment Directorate-General where he developed a new EU Directive on groundwater protection against pollution and chaired European science-policy expert groups on groundwater and chemical monitoring in support of the implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive. He moved back to the EC DG Research in 2008, where he acted as research Programme Officer and managed research projects on climate change impacts on the aquatic environment and on hydrometeorological hazards, while ensuring strong links with policy networks. In April 2013 he moved to another area of work, namely Security Research, at the EC DG Enterprise and Industry where he is research Programming and Policy Officer in the fields of Crisis Management and CBRN.

Besides his EC career, Philippe Quevauviller has remained active in academic and scientific developments. He is Associate Professor at the Free University of Brussels and promoter of Master theses in an international Master on Water Engineering (IUPWARE programme), which is under this function that he is acting as Series Editor of the Hydrometeorological Extreme Events Series for Wiley. He also teaches integrated water management issues and their links to EU water science and policies to Master students of the EurAquae programme at the Polytech'Nice (France).

Philippe Quevauviller has published (as author and coauthor) more than 220 scientific and policy publications in the international literature, 54 book chapters, 80 reports and 6 books and has acted as an editor and co-editor for 26 special issues of scientific journals and 15 books. He also coordinated a book series for Wiley on Water Quality Measurements which resulted in 10 books published between 2000 and 2011.

List of Contributors

Clara Armaroli

Dipartimento di Fisica e Scienze della Terra, Università di Ferrara, Ferrara, Italy

Nina Becker

Department of Economics, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Leipzig, Germany, and Overseas Development Institute, London, UK

Laurens M. Bouwer

Deltares, Delft, The Netherlands

Philip Bubeck

adelphi, Berlin, Germany

Paolo Ciavola

Dipartimento di Fisica e Scienze della Terra, Università di Ferrara, Ferrara, Italy

Hugh Deeming

Engineering & Environment, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK

Oscar Ferreira

FCT, CIMA, Universidade do Algarve, Faro, Portugal

Maureen Fordham

Engineering & Environment, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK

Emmanuel Garnier

Institut Universitaire de France, CNRS and University of La Rochelle, France

Luis Garrote

Department of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences, Technical University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain

Elisabetta Genovese

Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED), Nogent-sur-Marne, France

Philippe Gourbesville

Université Nice Sophia Antipolis, Polytech Nice Sophia, I-CiTy Lab, Nice, France

Colin Green

Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University, Hendon, UK

Stephane Hallegatte

Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED), Nogent-sur-Marne, France; Ecole Nationale de Météorologie, Toulouse, France, and The World Bank, Sustainable Development Network, Washington, DC, USA

Richard Harding

Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxon, UK

Mitchell Harley

Dipartimento di Fisica e Scienze della Terra, Università di Ferrara, Ferrara, Italy

Ana Iglesias

Department of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences, Technical University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain

Demetrio Innocenti

University of Antwerp, Institute of Development Policy and Management (IOB), Antwerp, Belgium, and The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), Brussels, Belgium

Alison Kay

Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxon, UK

Heidi Kreibich

Helmholtz Centre Potsdam – GFZ, German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany

Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz

Institute for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Poznan, Poland, and Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

Quentin Lequeux

Dipartimento di Fisica e Scienze della Terra, Università di Ferrara, Ferrara, Italy

Ivana Logar

Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology (EAWAG), Dübendorf, Switzerland

Vasileios Markantonis

Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Chemnitz University of Technology, Chemnitz, Germany

Volker Meyer

Department of Economics, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Germany

Elissaios Papyrakis

Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam,

The Netherlands; School of International Development, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK, and International Institute of Social Studies, Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands

Clemens Pfurtscheller

Institute of Interdisciplinary Mountain Research, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Innsbruck, Austria

Jennifer Poussin

Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Valentin Przyluski

Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED), Nogent-sur-Marne, France

Philippe Quevauviller

Department of Hydrology and Hydrological Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussels, Brussels, Belgium

Nick Reynard

Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxon, UK

Reimund Schwarze

Department of Economics, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Germany

Åsa Gerger Swartling

Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm, Sweden, and Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.

Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh

ICREA, Barcelona, Spain; Institute of Environmental Science and Technology, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain; Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands, and Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Annegret H. Thieken

Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany

Ap Van Dongeren

Deltares, Delft, The Netherlands

Henny A.J. Van Lanen

Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands

Jaap Van Thiel de Vries

Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, University of Delft, Delft,

The Netherlands

Christophe Viavattene

Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University, Hendon, London, UK

Barbara Zanuttigh

Department of Civil, Chemical, Environmental and Materials Engineering,

University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy

Part OneSetting the Scene

Chapter 1.1

Strengthened Resilience from Historic Experience. European Societies Confronted with Hydrometeors in the Sixteenth to Twentieth Centuries

Emmanuel Garnier

Institut Universitaire de France, CNRS and University of La Rochelle, France

1.1.1 Introduction

In his seminal book published in 1992 on the evolution of society from a society of disasters to a society of risk, the sociologist Ulrich Beck clearly distinguishes between a “pre-modern” society qualified as “traditional”, devoid of industries, and a “modern” society (Beck, 1992). In the first case, risk is non-existent, supplanted as it is by a social conviction: threats of all kinds which result from disasters are both natural and totally unpredictable. Against this traditional collective fatalism, he contrasts industrialized society which would redefine the relations which it maintains with its natural environment according to a relationship of domination (Man) and dominated (Nature). For Beck, by inventing the concept of risk, industrialization finally allowed its definition and quantification thanks to an improvement in instrumentation and to scientific progress. However, the historical reality observed in archives about hydrometeors is particularly enlightening. It indicates that the germs of a “risk”-based mentality can be observed very early on, in a time when societies and states remained nevertheless fundamentally agrarian and traditional. This historical work consequently aims to study the “trajectories of vulnerability” of territories and European societies confronted with two types of hydrometeors: droughts and storm surges.

1.1.2 Five centuries of droughts

The results presented in this section fall within the framework of the EU project FP 7 ‘Fostering European Drought Research and Science-Policy Interfacing’ (project number 282769). This project aims to reduce Europe's future vulnerability to and risk of drought by innovative in-depth studies that combine drought investigations in case study areas in water-stressed regions with drought analysis at the pan-European scale. In this perspective, it grants in particular an important role to the historical approach in helping us to understand better the frequency and severity of the droughts during the last 500 years as well as the reactions of the old societies.

Droughts are a factor of historic durability and, because of their impacts on societies, they left multiple indicators in the archives of the last 500 years. For the record, it is necessary to remind ourselves that the general term of ‘drought’ covers different notions. The most frequent meaning of the word is a rainfall deficit and an extreme climate event.

1.1.2.1 Historic material and methods of evaluation

Because of the unpredictable character and the absence of civil services specially dedicated to the study of these extreme events before the middle of the nineteenth century, historians have to make maximum use of the entire corpus of sources. The information we need is often hidden at random in the margins of some documentation and we cannot afford to neglect any type of archive if we want to hope to reconstruct long and relatively reliable chronologies (Garnier, 2010a).