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- Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
- Kategorie: Wissenschaft und neue Technologien
- Sprache: Englisch
Innovation Diffusion Models Understand innovation diffusion models and their role in business success Innovation diffusion models are statistical models that predict the medium- and long-term sales performance of new products on a market. They account for numerous factors that contribute to the life cycle of a new product and are subject to continuous reassessment as markets transform and the business world becomes more complex. In a modern market environment where product life cycles are becoming ever shorter, the latest innovation diffusion models are essential for businesses looking to perfect their decision-making processes. Innovation Diffusion Models: Theory and Practice provides a comprehensive and up-to-date guide to these models and their potential to impact product development. It focuses on the latest product diffusion models, which combine time series analysis with nonlinear regression techniques to create increasingly refined predictions. Its combination of mathematical theory and business practice makes it an indispensable tool across many sectors of industry and commerce. Innovation Diffusion Models readers will also find: * Real-world examples demonstrating the kinds of data sets generated by new product growth models and their potential applications * Discussion of the factors underlying the decision to select a given growth model for a particular product * Clear, detailed explanation of each model's explanatory ability Innovation Diffusion Models is an essential volume for practitioners in any field of industry or commerce, as well as for graduate students and researchers in business and finance.
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Seitenzahl: 264
Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2023
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Table of Contents
Cover
Table of Contents
Title Page
Copyright
Dedication
List of Figures
List of Tables
About the Author
Preface
Acknowledgments
Acronyms
About the Companion Website
Introduction
References
1 Theory of Innovation Diffusion
1.1 Basic Concepts and Definitions
References
2 Innovation Diffusion as an Empirical Generalization: The Bass Model
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Bass Model: Theory
2.3 Model Estimation
2.4 The Bass Model: Case Studies
2.5 Recap
References
3 Innovation Diffusion with Structured Shocks: The Generalized Bass Model
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Generalized Bass Model: Theory
3.3 Generalized Bass Model: Case Studies
3.4 Recap
References
4 Innovation Diffusion with a Dynamic Market Potential: The GGM
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Dynamic Market Potential: Theory
4.3 GGM
4.4 Generalizations of the GGM
4.5 A Dynamic Market Potential Model with Network Externalities
4.6 GGM: Case Studies
4.7 Recap
References
5 Dealing with Autocorrelation and Seasonality in Innovation Diffusion
5.1 Introduction
5.2 ARMAX Refinement: Theory
5.3 ARMAX Refinement: Case Studies
5.4 Recap
References
6 Innovation Diffusion in Competition
6.1 Introduction
6.2 UCRCD Model: Theory
6.3 UCRCD Model: Case Studies
6.4 Recap
References
7 Estimation Methods for Innovation Diffusion Models
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Nonlinear Least Squares
7.3 Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing
References
8 Case Studies
8.1 Introduction
8.2 Sales of Smartphones
8.3 Music Industry in the US
8.4 Revenues of a Company
8.5 The Life Cycle of Tablets
8.6 Energy Transition in Germany
8.7 Growth of Video Conferencing
8.8 Diffusion of a Scientific Paper
8.9 Diffusion of Internet Usage
References
9 Modeling a Diffusion Process
9.1 Statistical Modeling
9.2 To Explain or to Predict
9.3 Conclusion
References
References
Index
End User License Agreement
List of Tables
Chapter 2
Table 2.1 Bass model: parameters and description.
Table 2.2 Parameter estimates of BM for iPhone.
Table 2.3 Parameter estimates of BM for Blackberry.
Table 2.4 Parameter estimates of BM for consumption of wind energy in Denmar...
Chapter 3
Table 3.1 Generalized Bass model with one exponential shock: parameters and ...
Table 3.2 Generalized Bass model with one rectangular shock: parameters and ...
Table 3.3 Parameter estimates of GBMe1 for iPhone.
Table 3.4 Parameter estimates of GBMr1 for Mac.
Table 3.5 Parameter estimates of GBMe1r1 for Mac.
Chapter 4
Table 4.1 GGM: parameters and description.
Table 4.2 Parameter estimates of GGM for iPhone.
Table 4.3 Parameter estimates of GGM for iPod.
Table 4.4 Parameter estimates of GGM for Samsung smartphones.
Chapter 5
Table 5.1 ARMAX refinement for Netflix subscriptions.
Table 5.2 SARMAX refinement for iPod.
Chapter 6
Table 6.1 UCRCD model: parameters and description.
Table 6.2 Sign of cross imitation coefficient and their meaning.
Table 6.3 LVch model reductions depending on values of and .
Table 6.4 UCTT model (simple competition): parameters and description.
Table 6.5 UCTT model (double competition): parameters and description.
Table 6.6 Parameter estimates of UCRCD for gas renewables in Denmark.
Table 6.7 Parameter estimates of UCRCD for coal renewables in Australia.
Chapter 8
Table 8.1 Parameter estimates of BM for Oppo smartphones.
Table 8.2 Parameter estimates of GBM with one rectangular shock for Oppo.
Table 8.3 Parameter estimates of GGM for Oppo smartphones.
Table 8.4 ARMAX refinement for Oppo.
Table 8.5 Parameter estimates of BM for cassettes.
Table 8.6 Parameter estimates of BM for cassettes with 100%, 75%, 50%, and 2...
Table 8.7 Parameter estimates of BM for compact discs.
Table 8.8 Parameter estimates of UCRCD for cassettes and compact discs in th...
Table 8.9 UCRCD: Within imitation effects.
Table 8.10 UCRCD: Cross imitation effects.
Table 8.11 Parameter estimates of BM for Twitter.
Table 8.12 Parameter estimates of GBMr1 for Twitter.
Table 8.13 Parameter estimates of GBMe1 for Twitter.
Table 8.14 Parameter estimates of GGM for Twitter.
Table 8.15 ARMAX refinement for Twitter.
Table 8.16 Parameter estimates of BM for iPad sales.
Table 8.17 Parameter estimates of GGM for iPad sales.
Table 8.18 SARMAX refinement for iPad.
Table 8.19 Parameter estimates of GBM with one exponential shock for coal en...
Table 8.20 Parameter estimates of GGM for gas energy.
Table 8.21 Parameter estimates of GGM for nuclear energy.
Table 8.22 Parameter estimates of GBM with one exponential shock for renewab...
Table 8.23 Parameter estimates of UCRCD.
Table 8.24 UCRCD. Within imitation effects.
Table 8.25 UCRCD. Cross imitation effects.
Table 8.26 Parameter estimates of UCTT for Germany energy.
Table 8.27 UCTT. Within imitation effects.
Table 8.28 UCTT. Cross imitation effects.
Table 8.29 Parameter estimates of BM for Zoom share price.
Table 8.30 Parameter estimates of GBM with one exponential shock for Zoom sh...
Table 8.31 SARMAX refinement for Zoom share price.
Table 8.32 Parameter estimates of GBM with one exponential shock for Google ...
Table 8.33 SARMAX refinement for Google searches of “Zoom.”.
Table 8.34 Parameter estimates of BM for annual citations of the paper by Ba...
Table 8.35 Parameter estimates of GBM with one rectangular shock for yearly ...
List of Illustrations
Chapter 1
Figure 1.1 Annual sales of compact discs in the United States.
Figure 1.2 Quarterly sales of Apple iPod.
Figure 1.3 Annual consumption of wind energy in Germany.
Chapter 2
Figure 2.1 Three cumulative diffusion processes, , with different and p...
Figure 2.2 Three instantaneous diffusion processes with different and pa...
Figure 2.3 iPhone. Quarterly (a) and cumulative (b) sales from 2007 to 2018 ...
Figure 2.4 BM for iPhone. Quarterly sales (a) and cumulative sales (b).
Figure 2.5 Blackberry. Quarterly (a) and cumulative (b) sales from 2007 to 2...
Figure 2.6 BM for Blackberry. Quarterly sales (a) and cumulative sales (b)....
Figure 2.7 Consumption of wind energy in Denmark. Annual (a) and cumulative ...
Figure 2.8 BM for wind energy consumption in Denmark. Annual (a) and cumulat...
Chapter 3
Figure 3.1 Exponential shock with , and .
Figure 3.2 Rectangular shock with , and .
Figure 3.3 GBM with one exponential shock for iPhone. Quarterly sales (a) an...
Figure 3.4 Model comparison. GBM with one exponential shock and BM for iPhon...
Figure 3.5 Mac. Quarterly (a) and cumulative (b) sales from 2006 to 2018 (mi...
Figure 3.6 GBM with one rectangular shock for Mac. Quarterly sales (a) and c...
Figure 3.7 Model comparison. GBM with one rectangular shock and BM for Mac....
Figure 3.8 GBM with one exponential and one rectangular shock for Mac. Quart...
Figure 3.9 Model comparison. GBM with one exponential and one rectangular sh...
Chapter 4
Figure 4.1 Three cumulative diffusion processes with different combinations ...
Figure 4.2 Three instantaneous diffusion processes with different combinatio...
Figure 4.3 GGM for iPhone. Quarterly sales (a) and cumulative sales (b).
Figure 4.4 Model comparison. GGM and BM for iPhone.
Figure 4.5 GGM for iPod. Quarterly sales (a) and cumulative sales (b).
Figure 4.6 Model comparison. GGM and BM for iPod.
Figure 4.7 Samsung smartphones. Quarterly (a) and cumulative (b) sales from ...
Figure 4.8 GGM for Samsung smartphones. Quarterly sales (a) and cumulative s...
Figure 4.9 Model comparison. GGM and BM for Samsung smartphones.
Chapter 5
Figure 5.1 GGM for iPod. Quarterly sales.
Figure 5.2 Netflix. Quarterly (a) and cumulative (b) subscriptions from 2013...
Figure 5.3 BM for Netflix. Quarterly subscriptions (a) and cumulative subscr...
Figure 5.4 Netflix subscriptions: residual ACF after BM (a) and residual ACF...
Figure 5.5 ARMAX refinement for Netflix subscriptions.
Figure 5.6 iPod. Residual ACF after GGM (a) and residual ACF after SARMAX re...
Figure 5.7 SARMAX refinement for iPod and GGM.
Chapter 6
Figure 6.1 UCRCD model: , , , , , , , , , . The second product ent...
Figure 6.2 Annual consumption of gas and renewables in Denmark (a) and annua...
Figure 6.3 UCRCD model for gas and renewables consumption in Denmark. The do...
Figure 6.4 UCRCD model for coal and renewables consumption in Australia. The...
Chapter 8
Figure 8.1 Oppo. Quarterly (a) and cumulative (b) sales from 2015 to 2022 (m...
Figure 8.2 ACF for Oppo smartphones, quarterly sales.
Figure 8.3 BM for Oppo. Quarterly sales (a) and cumulative sales (b).
Figure 8.4 Out‐of‐sample BM for Oppo. Quarterly sales (a) and cumulative sal...
Figure 8.5 GBM with one rectangular shock for Oppo. Quarterly sales (a) and ...
Figure 8.6 Out‐of‐sample GBM with one rectangular shock for Oppo. Quarterly ...
Figure 8.7 GGM for Oppo. Quarterly sales (a) and cumulative sales (b).
Figure 8.8 Out‐of‐sample GGM for Oppo. Quarterly sales (a) and cumulative sa...
Figure 8.9 Model comparison. GGM, GBM, and BM for Oppo.
Figure 8.10 Model comparison. Out‐of‐sample GGM, GBM, and BM for Oppo.
Figure 8.11 Residual ACF after GBM (a) and GGM (b) for Oppo.
Figure 8.12 SARMAX refinement after GGM for Oppo. already seen for other bra...
Figure 8.13 Cassettes. Annual sales from 1973 to 2008 (a) and cumulative sal...
Figure 8.14 BM for cassettes in the US. Annual sales (a) and cumulative sale...
Figure 8.15 BM for cassettes in the US with 100%, 75%, 50%, and 25% of data....
Figure 8.16 BM for cassettes in the US with 100%, 75%, 50%, and 25% of data....
Figure 8.17 Compact discs. Annual sales from 1982 to 2021 (a) and cumulative...
Figure 8.18 BM for CDs in the US. Annual sales (a) and cumulative sales (b)....
Figure 8.19 Annual sales of cassettes and compact discs from 1982 to 2021 (a...
Figure 8.20 UCRCD for cassettes and compact discs. Annual sales (a) and cumu...
Figure 8.21 Twitter. Quarterly revenues from 2011 to 2022 (a) and cumulative...
Figure 8.22 ACF for Twitter. Quarterly revenues.
Figure 8.23 BM for Twitter. Quarterly revenues (a) and cumulative revenues (...
Figure 8.24 GBM with one rectangular shock (a) and one exponential shock (b)...
Figure 8.25 GGM for Twitter. Quarterly revenues (a) and cumulative revenues ...
Figure 8.26 Model comparison. GGM, GBM with rectangular shock and with expon...
Figure 8.27 Residuals and residual ACF after GGM for Twitter revenues.
Figure 8.28 ARMAX refinement after GGM for Twitter revenues.
Figure 8.29 iPad. Quarterly sales from 2010 to 2018 (a) and cumulative sales...
Figure 8.30 BM for iPad. Quarterly sales (a) and cumulative sales (b).
Figure 8.31 GGM for iPad. Quarterly sales (a) and cumulative sales (b).
Figure 8.32 Model comparison. GGM and BM for iPad sales.
Figure 8.33 SARMAX refinement after GGM for iPad. (a) Quarterly sales, (b) c...
Figure 8.34 Annual consumption of coal, gas, nuclear, and renewables in Germ...
Figure 8.35 Coal energy. Annual consumption in Germany (a) and cumulative co...
Figure 8.36 GBM with one exponential shock for coal. Annual consumption (a) ...
Figure 8.37 Model comparison. GBM with one exponential shock and BM for coal...
Figure 8.38 Gas energy. Annual consumption in Germany (a) and cumulative con...
Figure 8.39 GGM for gas. Annual consumption (a) and cumulative consumption (...
Figure 8.40 Model comparison. GGM and BM for gas energy in Germany.
Figure 8.41 Nuclear energy. Annual consumption in Germany (a) and cumulative...
Figure 8.42 GGM for nuclear. Annual consumption (a) and cumulative consumpti...
Figure 8.43 Model comparison. GGM and BM for nuclear energy in Germany.
Figure 8.44 Renewable energy. Annual consumption in Germany (a) and cumulati...
Figure 8.45 GBM with one exponential shock for renewable energy consumption....
Figure 8.46 Model comparison. GBM with one exponential shock and BM for rene...
Figure 8.47 UCRCD model for nuclear and renewable energy. Annual consumption...
Figure 8.48 UCTT for coal, nuclear, and renewable energy. Annual consumption...
Figure 8.49 UCTT for coal, nuclear, and renewable energy. Cumulative consump...
Figure 8.50 Zoom shares. Monthly price (a) and cumulative price (b) (in US d...
Figure 8.51 BM for Zoom shares. Weekly price (a) and cumulative price (b).
Figure 8.52 GBM with one exponential shock for Zoom shares. Weekly price (a)...
Figure 8.53 Model comparison. BM and GBM with one exponential shock for the ...
Figure 8.54 SARMAX refinement after GBM with one exponential shock for weekl...
Figure 8.55 Google searches of “Zoom.” Weekly searches (a) and cumulative se...
Figure 8.56 GBM with one exponential shock for Google searches of “Zoom.” We...
Figure 8.57 SARMAX refinement after GBM with one exponential shock for Googl...
Figure 8.58 Citations of the paper by Bass (1969). Annual data (a) and cumul...
Figure 8.59 BM for citations of the paper by Bass (1969). Annual data (a) an...
Figure 8.60 GBM with one rectangular shock for citations of Bass (1969). Ann...
Figure 8.61 Model comparison. BM and GBM with one rectangular shock for annu...
Figure 8.62 Percentage Internet diffusion in some countries in the world.
Figure 8.63 Groups of countries according to the market potential .
Figure 8.64 Groups of countries according to the innovation coefficient .
Figure 8.65 Groups of countries according to the imitation coefficient .
Figure 8.66 Relationship between and in each group.
Figure 8.67 Relationship between and in each group.
Figure 8.68 Relationship between and in each group.
Figure 8.69 Groups according to and .
Guide
Cover
Table of Contents
Title Page
Copyright
Dedication
List of Figures
List of Tables
About the Author
Preface
Acknowledgments
Acronyms
About the Companion Website
Introduction
Begin Reading
References
Index
End User License Agreement
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Innovation Diffusion Models
Theory and Practice
Mariangela GuidolinUniversity of PaduaPadua, Italy
This edition first published 2024© 2024 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
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Library of Congress Cataloging‐in‐Publication Data:
Names: Guidolin, Mariangela, author.Title: Innovation diffusion models : theory and practice / Mariangela Guidolin.Description: Chichester, West Sussex, UK : Wiley, 2024. | Includes bibliographical references and index.Identifiers: LCCN 2023022913 (print) | LCCN 2023022914 (ebook) | ISBN 9781119756200 (cloth) | ISBN 9781119756217 (adobe pdf) | ISBN 9781119756224 (epub)Subjects: LCSH: New products–Marketing–Mathematical models. | Diffusion of innovations.Classification: LCC HF5415.153 .G88 2024 (print) | LCC HF5415.153 (ebook) | DDC 658.5/750688–dc23/eng/20230717LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2023022913LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2023022914
Cover design: WileyCover image: © AF‐studio/DigitalVision Vectors/Getty Images
To my family
List of Figures
Figure 1.1
Annual sales of compact discs in the United States.
Figure 1.2
Quarterly sales of Apple iPod.
Figure 1.3
Annual consumption of wind energy in Germany.
Figure 2.1
Three cumulative diffusion processes, , with different and parameters. The market potential is fixed at .
Figure 2.2
Three instantaneous diffusion processes with different and parameters. The market potential is fixed at .
Figure 2.3
iPhone. Quarterly (a) and cumulative (b) sales from 2007 to 2018 (million units).
Figure 2.4
BM for iPhone. Quarterly sales (a) and cumulative sales (b).
Figure 2.5
Blackberry. Quarterly (a) and cumulative (b) sales from 2007 to 2013 (million units).
Figure 2.6
BM for Blackberry. Quarterly sales (a) and cumulative sales (b).
Figure 2.7
Consumption of wind energy in Denmark. Annual (a) and cumulative (b) data from 1997 to 2020 (in ExaJoule).
Figure 2.8
BM for wind energy consumption in Denmark. Annual (a) and cumulative (b).
Figure 3.1
Exponential shock with , and .
Figure 3.2
Rectangular shock with , and .
Figure 3.3
GBM with one exponential shock for iPhone. Quarterly sales (a) and cumulative sales (b).
Figure 3.4
Model comparison. GBM with one exponential shock and BM for iPhone.
Figure 3.5
Mac. Quarterly (a) and cumulative (b) sales from 2006 to 2018 (million units).
Figure 3.6
GBM with one rectangular shock for Mac. Quarterly sales (a) and cumulative sales (b).
Figure 3.7
Model comparison. GBM with one rectangular shock and BM for Mac.
Figure 3.8
GBM with one exponential and one rectangular shock for Mac. Quarterly sales (a) and cumulative sales (b).
Figure 3.9
Model comparison. GBM with one exponential and one rectangular shock and GBM with one rectangular shock for Mac.
Figure 4.1
Three cumulative diffusion processes with different combinations of and parameters. Parameters and . The asymptotic market potential is fixed at .
Figure 4.2
Three instantaneous diffusion processes with different combinations of and parameters. Parameters and . (a) = 0.001, = 0.1, (b) = 0.01, = 0.9, (c) = 0.001, = 0.05.
Figure 4.3
GGM for iPhone. Quarterly sales (a) and cumulative sales (b).
Figure 4.4
Model comparison. GGM and BM for iPhone.
Figure 4.5
GGM for iPod. Quarterly sales (a) and cumulative sales (b).
Figure 4.6
Model comparison. GGM and BM for iPod.
Figure 4.7
Samsung smartphones. Quarterly (a) and cumulative (b) sales from 2010 to 2022 (million units).
Figure 4.8
GGM for Samsung smartphones. Quarterly sales (a) and cumulative sales (b).
Figure 4.9
Model comparison. GGM and BM for Samsung smartphones.
Figure 5.1
GGM for iPod. Quarterly sales.
Figure 5.2
Netflix. Quarterly (a) and cumulative (b) subscriptions from 2013 to 2021 (million units).
Figure 5.3
BM for Netflix. Quarterly subscriptions (a) and cumulative subscriptions (b).
Figure 5.4
Netflix subscriptions: residual ACF after BM (a) and residual ACF after ARMAX refinement (b).
Figure 5.5
ARMAX refinement for Netflix subscriptions.
Figure 5.6
iPod. Residual ACF after GGM (a) and residual ACF after SARMAX refinement (b).
Figure 5.7
SARMAX refinement for iPod and GGM.
Figure 6.1
UCRCD model: , , , , , , , , , . The second product enters at time (dashed line).
Figure 6.2
Annual consumption of gas and renewables in Denmark (a) and annual consumption of coal and renewables in Australia (b).
Figure 6.3
UCRCD model for gas and renewables consumption in Denmark. The dotted vertical line indicates when the competitor entered the market.
Figure 6.4
UCRCD model for coal and renewables consumption in Australia. The dotted vertical line indicates when the competitor entered the market.
Figure 8.1
Oppo. Quarterly (a) and cumulative (b) sales from 2015 to 2022 (million units).
Figure 8.2
ACF for Oppo smartphones, quarterly sales.
Figure 8.3
BM for Oppo. Quarterly sales (a) and cumulative sales (b).
Figure 8.4
Out‐of‐sample BM for Oppo. Quarterly sales (a) and cumulative sales (b).
Figure 8.5
GBM with one rectangular shock for Oppo. Quarterly sales (a) and cumulative sales (b).
Figure 8.6
Out‐of‐sample GBM with one rectangular shock for Oppo. Quarterly sales (a) and cumulative sales (b).
Figure 8.7
GGM for Oppo. Quarterly sales (a) and cumulative sales (b).
Figure 8.8
Out‐of‐sample GGM for Oppo. Quarterly sales (a) and cumulative sales (b).
Figure 8.9
Model comparison. GGM, GBM, and BM for Oppo.
Figure 8.10
Model comparison. Out‐of‐sample GGM, GBM, and BM for Oppo.
Figure 8.11
Residual ACF after GBM (a) and GGM (b) for Oppo.
Figure 8.12
SARMAX refinement after GGM for Oppo. already seen for other brands in the previous.
Figure 8.13
Cassettes. Annual sales from 1973 to 2008 (a) and cumulative sales (b) in the US (million units).
Figure 8.14
BM for cassettes in the US. Annual sales (a) and cumulative sales (b).
Figure 8.15
BM for cassettes in the US with 100%, 75%, 50%, and 25% of data. Annual sales.
Figure 8.16
BM for cassettes in the US with 100%, 75%, 50%, and 25% of data. Cumulative sales.
Figure 8.17
Compact discs. Annual sales from 1982 to 2021 (a) and cumulative sales (b) in the US (million units).
Figure 8.18
BM for CDs in the US. Annual sales (a) and cumulative sales (b).
Figure 8.19
Annual sales of cassettes and compact discs from 1982 to 2021 (a) and cumulative sales (b) in the US.
Figure 8.20
UCRCD for cassettes and compact discs. Annual sales (a) and cumulative sales (b).
Figure 8.21
Twitter. Quarterly revenues from 2011 to 2022 (a) and cumulative revenues (b).
Figure 8.22
ACF for Twitter. Quarterly revenues.
Figure 8.23
BM for Twitter. Quarterly revenues (a) and cumulative revenues (b).
Figure 8.24
GBM with one rectangular shock (a) and one exponential shock (b) for Twitter. Quarterly revenues (million US dollars).
Figure 8.25
GGM for Twitter. Quarterly revenues (a) and cumulative revenues (b).
Figure 8.26
Model comparison. GGM, GBM with rectangular shock and with exponential shock for Twitter revenues.
Figure 8.27
Residuals and residual ACF after GGM for Twitter revenues.
Figure 8.28
ARMAX refinement after GGM for Twitter revenues.
Figure 8.29
iPad. Quarterly sales from 2010 to 2018 (a) and cumulative sales (b).
Figure 8.30
BM for iPad. Quarterly sales (a) and cumulative sales (b).
Figure 8.31
GGM for iPad. Quarterly sales (a) and cumulative sales (b).
Figure 8.32
Model comparison. GGM and BM for iPad sales.
Figure 8.33
SARMAX refinement after GGM for iPad. (a) Quarterly sales, (b) cumulative sales.
Figure 8.34
Annual consumption of coal, gas, nuclear, and renewables in Germany.
Figure 8.35
Coal energy. Annual consumption in Germany (a) and cumulative consumption (b) (in ExaJoule).
Figure 8.36
GBM with one exponential shock for coal. Annual consumption (a) and cumulative consumption (b).
Figure 8.37
Model comparison. GBM with one exponential shock and BM for coal energy in Germany.
Figure 8.38
Gas energy. Annual consumption in Germany (a) and cumulative consumption (b) (in ExaJoule).
Figure 8.39
GGM for gas. Annual consumption (a) and cumulative consumption (b).
Figure 8.40
Model comparison. GGM and BM for gas energy in Germany.
Figure 8.41
Nuclear energy. Annual consumption in Germany (a) and cumulative consumption (b) (in ExaJoule).
Figure 8.42
GGM for nuclear. Annual consumption (a) and cumulative consumption (b).
Figure 8.43
Model comparison. GGM and BM for nuclear energy in Germany.
Figure 8.44
Renewable energy. Annual consumption in Germany (a) and cumulative consumption (b) (in ExaJoule).
Figure 8.45
GBM with one exponential shock for renewable energy consumption. Annual consumption (a) and cumulative consumption (b).
Figure 8.46
Model comparison. GBM with one exponential shock and BM for renewable energy in Germany.
Figure 8.47
UCRCD model for nuclear and renewable energy. Annual consumption (a) and cumulative consumption (b).
Figure 8.48
UCTT for coal, nuclear, and renewable energy. Annual consumption.
Figure 8.49
UCTT for coal, nuclear, and renewable energy. Cumulative consumption.
Figure 8.50
Zoom shares. Monthly price (a) and cumulative price (b) (in US dollars).
Figure 8.51
BM for Zoom shares. Weekly price (a) and cumulative price (b).
Figure 8.52
GBM with one exponential shock for Zoom shares. Weekly price (a) and cumulative price (b).
Figure 8.53
Model comparison. BM and GBM with one exponential shock for the weekly price of Zoom shares.
Figure 8.54
SARMAX refinement after GBM with one exponential shock for weekly price of Zoom shares.
Figure 8.55
Google searches of “Zoom.” Weekly searches (a) and cumulative searches (b).
Figure 8.56
GBM with one exponential shock for Google searches of “Zoom.” Weekly searches (a) and cumulative searches (b).
Figure 8.57
SARMAX refinement after GBM with one exponential shock for Google searches of “Zoom.” (a) Weekly searches, (b) cumulative searches.
Figure 8.58
Citations of the paper by Bass (1969). Annual data (a) and cumulative data (b).
Figure 8.59
BM for citations of the paper by Bass (1969). Annual data (a) and cumulative data (b).
Figure 8.60
GBM with one rectangular shock for citations of Bass (1969). Annual data (a) and cumulative data (b).
Figure 8.61
Model comparison. BM and GBM with one rectangular shock for annual citations of Bass (1969).
Figure 8.62
Percentage Internet diffusion in some countries in the world.
Figure 8.63
Groups of countries according to the market potential .
Figure 8.64
Groups of countries according to the innovation coefficient .
Figure 8.65
Groups of countries according to the imitation coefficient .
Figure 8.66
Relationship between and in each group.
Figure 8.67
Relationship between and in each group.
Figure 8.68
Relationship between and in each group.
Figure 8.69
Groups according to and .
List of Tables
Table 2.1
Bass model: parameters and description.
Table 2.2
Parameter estimates of BM for iPhone.
Table 2.3
Parameter estimates of BM for Blackberry.
Table 2.4
Parameter estimates of BM for consumption of wind energy in Denmark.
Table 3.1
Generalized Bass model with one exponential shock: parameters and description.
Table 3.2
Generalized Bass model with one rectangular shock: parameters and description.
Table 3.3
Parameter estimates of GBMe1 for iPhone.
Table 3.4
Parameter estimates of GBMr1 for Mac.
Table 3.5
Parameter estimates of GBMe1r1 for Mac.
Table 4.1
GGM: parameters and description.
Table 4.2
Parameter estimates of GGM for iPhone.
Table 4.3
Parameter estimates of GGM for iPod.
Table 4.4
Parameter estimates of GGM for Samsung smartphones.
Table 5.1
ARMAX refinement for Netflix subscriptions.
Table 5.2
SARMAX refinement for iPod.
Table 6.1
UCRCD model: parameters and description.
Table 6.2
Sign of cross imitation coefficient and their meaning.
Table 6.3
LVch model reductions depending on values of and .
Table 6.4
UCTT model (simple competition): parameters and description.
Table 6.5
UCTT model (double competition): parameters and description.
Table 6.6
