Investment Performance Measurement E-Book

• Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
• Kategorie: Fachliteratur
• Serie: CFA Institute Investment Perspectives
• Sprache: Englisch

Seitenzahl: 1859

Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2009

Beschreibung

Investment Performance Measurement Over the past two decades, the importance of measuring, presenting, and evaluating investment performance results has dramatically increased. With the growth of capital market data services, the development of quantitative analytical techniques, and the widespread acceptance of Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS¯®), this discipline has emerged as a central component of effective asset management and, thanks in part to the Certificate in Investment Performance Measurement (CIPM) program, has become a recognized area of specialization for investment professionals. That's why Investment Performance Measurement: Evaluating and Presenting Results--the second essential title in the CFA Institute Investment Perspectives series--has been created. CFA Institute has a long tradition of publishing content from industry thought leaders, and now this new collection offers unparalleled guidance to those working in the rapidly evolving field of investment management. Drawing from the Research Foundation of CFA Institute, the Financial Analysts Journal, CFA Institute Conference Proceedings Quarterly, CFA Magazine, and the CIPM curriculum, this reliable resource taps into the vast store of knowledge of some of today's most prominent thought leaders--from industry professionals to respected academics--who have focused on investment performance evaluation for a majority of their careers. Divided into five comprehensive parts, this timely volume opens with an extensive overview of performance measurement, attribution, and appraisal. Here, you'll become familiar with everything from the algebra of time-weighted and money-weighted rates of return to the objectives and techniques of performance appraisal. After this informative introduction, Investment Performance Measurement moves on to: * Provide a solid understanding of the theoretical grounds for benchmarking and the trade-offs encountered during practice in Part II: Performance Measurement * Describe the different aspects of attribution analysis as well as the determinants of portfolio performance in Part III: Performance Attribution * Address everything from hedge fund risks and returns to fund management changes and equity style shifts in Part IV: Performance Appraisal * Recount the history and explain the provisions of the GIPS standards--with attention paid to the many practical issues that arise in the course of its implementation--in Part V: Global Investment Performance Standards Filled with invaluable insights from more than fifty experienced contributors, this practical guide will enhance your understanding of investment performance measurement and put you in a better position to present and evaluate results in the most effective way possible.

Leseprobe

Table of Contents

Praise

Title Page

Copyright Page

Foreword

Introduction

OVERVIEW

PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT

PERFORMANCE ATTRIBUTION

PERFORMANCE APPRAISAL

GLOBAL INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE STANDARDS

SUMMARY

PART I - OVERVIEW OF PERFORMANCE EVALUATION

CHAPTER 1 - EVALUATING PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE

THE IMPORTANCE OF PERFORMANCE EVALUATION

THE THREE COMPONENTS OF PERFORMANCE EVALUATION

PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT

BENCHMARKS

PERFORMANCE ATTRIBUTION

PERFORMANCE APPRAISAL

THE PRACTICE OF PERFORMANCE EVALUATION

NOTES

REFERENCES

PART II - PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT

CHAPTER 2 - BENCHMARKS AND INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT

FOREWORD

PREFACE

ORIGINS, USES, AND CHARACTERISTICS OF U.S. EQUITY BENCHMARKS

USING BENCHMARKS TO MEASURE PERFORMANCE

BUILDING PORTFOLIOS OF MANAGERS

THE EVOLUTION OF MPT AND THE BENCHMARKING PARADIGM

THE 1990s BUBBLE AND THE CRISIS IN MPT

CRITIQUES OF BENCHMARKING AND A WAY FORWARD

THE IMPACT OF BENCHMARKING ON MARKETS AND INSTITUTIONS

U.S. EQUITY STYLE INDEXES

FIXED-INCOME BENCHMARKS

INTERNATIONAL EQUITY BENCHMARKS

HEDGE FUND BENCHMARKS

POLICY BENCHMARKS

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

NOTES

REFERENCES

CHAPTER 3 - THE IMPORTANCE OF INDEX SELECTION

INDEX METHODOLOGIES

INDEX COMPARISONS

MANAGING TO INDEXES

CONCLUSION

NOTE

CHAPTER 4 - AFTER-TAX PERFORMANCE EVALUATION

WHY THE AFTER-TAX FOCUS

FACTORS AFFECTING TAX EFFICIENCY

MEASURING AFTER-TAX PERFORMANCE

CONCLUSION

QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION

CHAPTER 5 - TAXABLE BENCHMARKS: THE COMPLEXITY INCREASES

STANDARD BENCHMARK RULES

AIMR AFTER-TAX STANDARDS

IMPORTANCE OF THE CAPITAL GAIN REALIZATION RATE

CONVERTING A STANDARD PRETAX BENCHMARK

SHADOW PORTFOLIOS

CONCLUSION

QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION

NOTE

CHAPTER 6 - OVERCOMING CAP-WEIGHTED BOND BENCHMARK DEFICIENCIES

DIVERSIFICATION

PREVALENCE OF CAP-WEIGHTED BENCHMARKS

WHY MOST BOND BENCHMARKS ARE FLAWED

ANALYSIS OF THREE CAP-WEIGHTED INDICES

HIGH-YIELD SECTOR

BEYOND CASH BONDS

EMERGING MARKET BOND INDICES

GBI-EM

NEEDS SHOULD DICTATE THE BENCHMARK

ALTERNATIVE BENCHMARKS

CONCLUSION

QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION

REFERENCES

CHAPTER 7 - YIELD BOGEYS

APPROXIMATING PORTFOLIO YIELD

TREASURY YIELD BOGEYS

ARE YIELD BOGEY MISMEASUREMENTS A WASH?

CONCLUSION

NOTES

REFERENCES

CHAPTER 8 - JUMPING ON THE BENCHMARK BANDWAGON

IS IT APPROPRIATE?

“A HELL OF A DISCUSSION”

MEASURING “PURE ALPHA”

TOUGH CHOICES

CONSTRUCTING A SYNTHETIC UNIVERSE

A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT

PART III - PERFORMANCE ATTRIBUTION

CHAPTER 9 - DETERMINANTS OF PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE

A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS

DATA

RESULTS

RETURN VARIATION

IMPLICATIONS

NOTES

CHAPTER 10 - DETERMINANTS OF PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE II: AN UPDATE

FRAMEWORK

RESULTS

INTERNAL VERSUS EXTERNAL RISK POSITIONING

CONCLUSION

NOTES

CHAPTER 11 - DETERMINANTS OF PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE—20 YEARS LATER

CHAPTER 12 - EQUITY PORTFOLIO CHARACTERISTICS IN PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS

USES OF PORTFOLIO CHARACTERISTICS

DATA AND CALCULATION ISSUES

TYPES OF CHARACTERISTICS

MANAGER MONITORING AND STYLE ANALYSIS

ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS

LIMITATIONS OF PORTFOLIO CHARACTERISTICS ANALYSIS

NOTES

CHAPTER 13 - MUTUAL FUND PERFORMANCE: DOES FUND SIZE MATTER?

WHY FUND SIZE MATTERS

SAMPLE DESCRIPTION

DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS

NET EFFECTS OF FUND SIZE

FUND SIZE AND INVESTMENT STYLE

FUND SIZE AND STYLE CONSISTENCY

CONCLUSION

NOTES

REFERENCES

CHAPTER 14 - MULTIPERIOD ARITHMETIC ATTRIBUTION

ARITHMETIC VS. GEOMETRIC MEASURES

SINGLE-PERIOD SECTOR-BASED DECOMPOSITION

METHODS’ CHARACTERISTICS AND PROPERTIES

ARITHMETIC ALGORITHMS

CONCLUSION

APPENDIX 14A: NATURAL SCALING FROM SINGLE-PERIOD TO MULTIPERIOD CASE

NOTES

REFERENCES

CHAPTER 15 - OPTIMIZED GEOMETRIC ATTRIBUTION

SINGLE-PERIOD ATTRIBUTION: REVIEW

MULTIPERIOD ATTRIBUTION

GEOMETRIC ALGORITHMS

ADJUSTED PURE GEOMETRIC METHOD

CONCLUSION

APPENDIX 15A: DERIVATION OF OPTIMIZED GEOMETRIC ATTRIBUTION

NOTES

REFERENCES

CHAPTER 16 - CUSTOM FACTOR ATTRIBUTION

GENERAL ATTRIBUTION

PERFORMANCE ATTRIBUTION FOR CUSTOM FACTORS

RISK ATTRIBUTION FOR CUSTOM FACTORS

RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCE ATTRIBUTION

EXAMPLE

CONCLUSION

APPENDIX 16A: OPTIMAL EXPECTED RETURNS

APPENDIX 16B: FORMULAS FOR VOLATILITIES AND CORRELATIONS

APPENDIX 16C: REMOVING COLINEARITIES THROUGH RESTRICTED LEAST SQUARES

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

NOTES

REFERENCES

CHAPTER 17 - RETURN, RISK, AND PERFORMANCE ATTRIBUTION

EXAMPLE 1

EXAMPLE 2

EXAMPLE 3

CONCLUSION

QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION

CHAPTER 18 - GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT AND PERFORMANCE ATTRIBUTION

FOREWORD

PREFACE

INTRODUCTION

THE GENERAL FRAMEWORK

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE ATTRIBUTION

INTERPRETATION OF GLOBAL PERFORMANCE ATTRIBUTIONS

GLOBAL BALANCED PORTFOLIOS

CONCLUSION

APPENDIX 18A

APPENDIX 18B

NOTES

REFERENCES

CHAPTER 19 - CURRENCY OVERLAY IN PERFORMANCE EVALUATION

PORTFOLIO DECOMPOSITION AND PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT

ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS

CONCLUSION

APPENDIX 19A: PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT EXAMPLES

APPENDIX 19B: PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE

APPENDIX 19C: COVERED INTEREST RATE PARITY

APPENDIX 19D: ATTRIBUTION VARIABLES

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

NOTES

REFERENCES

PART IV - PERFORMANCE APPRAISAL

CHAPTER 20 - ON THE PERFORMANCE OF HEDGE FUNDS

DATA AND SAMPLE STATISTICS

FUND FEATURES AND PERFORMANCE

HEDGE FUND PERFORMANCE AND RISK

HEDGE FUNDS VERSUS MUTUAL FUNDS

SURVIVORSHIP BIAS

CONCLUSION

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

APPENDIX 20A: HEDGE FUND STRATEGIES

NOTES

REFERENCES

CHAPTER 21 - FUNDS OF HEDGE FUNDS

GROWTH OF FUNDS OF FUNDS

ADDED VALUE FROM FUNDS OF FUNDS

FUND-OF-FUNDS PERFORMANCE

EFFECTS OF STYLE AND MANAGER CHOICE

PROSPECTS FOR MULTISTRATEGY FUNDS

CONCLUSION

QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION

REFERENCES

CHAPTER 22 - HEDGE FUND DUE DILIGENCE

PAYING CAREFUL ATTENTION

SHINING A BRIGHT LIGHT

CREATING A MOSAIC

HANDSHAKE BUSINESS

CHAPTER 23 - PUTTING RISK MEASUREMENT IN CONTEXT

MAKING THE GRADE

LEVERAGING RISK

MAXIMIZING VAR

CHAPTER 24 - CONDITIONAL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION, REVISITED

FOREWORD

PREFACE

CONDITIONAL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION, REVISITED

REVIEW OF CONDITIONAL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION

MEASURING THE STATES OF THE ECONOMY

EMPIRICAL MODELS

DATA

PERFORMANCE OF BROAD FUND GROUPS

INDIVIDUAL FUND PERFORMANCE

PERFORMANCE AND INDIVIDUAL-FUND CHARACTERISTICS

MARKET TIMING

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICING FINANCIAL ANALYSTS

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

APPENDIX 24A: ADDITIONAL TABLES

NOTES

REFERENCES

CHAPTER 25 - DISTINGUISHING TRUE ALPHA FROM BETA

THE DIMENSIONS OF ACTIVE MANAGEMENT

DO HEDGE FUNDS CHARGE ALPHA FEES FOR BETA PERFORMANCE?

POLICY IMPLICATIONS FOR PENSION FUNDS AND OTHER INVESTORS

QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION

NOTE

CHAPTER 26 - A PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE INDEX

ALTERNATIVES TO THE SHARPE RATIO

SHARPE RATIO MAXIMIZATION

BEHAVIORAL HYPOTHESIS

FINDING THE OPTIMAL PORTFOLIO: A DISTRIBUTION-FREE APPROACH

EMPIRICAL EXAMPLE

CONCLUSIONS

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

NOTES

REFERENCES

CHAPTER 27 - APPROXIMATING THE CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR SHARPE STYLE WEIGHTS

A PRIMER ON STYLE ANALYSIS

THE SIMULATION PROCEDURE

CONCLUSION

APPENDIX: APPROXIMATING THE CONFIDENCE INTERVAL FOR SHARPE STYLE WEIGHTS

REFERENCES

CHAPTER 28 - THE STATISTICS OF SHARPE RATIOS

IID RETURNS

NON-IID RETURNS

TIME AGGREGATION

AN EMPIRICAL EXAMPLE

CONCLUSION

APPENDIX 28A: ASYMPTOTIC DISTRIBUTIONS OF SHARPE RATIO ESTIMATORS

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

NOTES

REFERENCES

CHAPTER 29 - RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCE

THE PROBLEM

LUCK VERSUS SKILL

CORRELATION-ADJUSTED PORTFOLIO AND THE M-3 MEASURE

THE M-3 MODEL

RANKING MUTUAL FUNDS

EXTENSION TO MULTIPLE MUTUAL FUNDS

ADJUSTING FOR TIME

CAVEATS

CONCLUSIONS

APPENDIX 29A: DETERMINING a AND b

APPENDIX 29B: MULTIPLE MUTUAL FUNDS

NOTES

REFERENCES

CHAPTER 30 - INDEX CHANGES AND LOSSES TO INDEX FUND INVESTORS

INDEX CHANGES AND RETURN PATTERNS

LOSSES TO INDEX FUND INVESTORS

CORROBORATING EVIDENCE

LIMITATIONS OF TRACKING ERROR

IMPROVING INDEX CONSTRUCTION

CONCLUSION

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

NOTES

REFERENCES

CHAPTER 31 - INFORMATION RATIOS AND BATTING AVERAGES

THE GAME

RESULTS FOR VARIOUS INVESTMENT STRATEGIES

GOOD BATTERS ARE SKEWED

CONCLUSION

APPENDIX 31A: FINDING THE IR FROM THE BATTING AVERAGE

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

NOTES

REFERENCES

CHAPTER 32 - THE INFORMATION RATIO

THE RATIO DEFINED

INTERPRETATIONS OF THE RATIO

THE SHARPE RATIO AND THE INFORMATION RATIO

INFORMATION RATIOS AND t-STATISTICS

ANNUALIZATION

EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON INFORMATION RATIOS

CAVEATS

CONCLUSION

NOTES

REFERENCES

CHAPTER 33 - DOES ASSET ALLOCATION POLICY EXPLAIN 40, 90, OR 100 PERCENT OF PERFORMANCE?

FRAMEWORK

DATA

QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS

CONCLUSION

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

NOTES

REFERENCES

CHAPTER 34 - FUND MANAGEMENT CHANGES AND EQUITY STYLE SHIFTS

DATA

RESEARCH METHODS

RESULTS

CONCLUSIONS

NOTES

REFERENCES

CHAPTER 35 - MANAGING PERFORMANCE: MONITORING AND TRANSITIONING MANAGERS

BACKGROUND

SELECTING AN INVESTMENT MANAGER

MONITORING AN INVESTMENT MANAGER

CATALYSTS FOR CHANGING A MANAGER

TRANSFERRING A TAXABLE PORTFOLIO TO A NEW MANAGER

CONCLUSION

QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION

CHAPTER 36 - DOES THE EMPEROR WEAR CLOTHES OR NOT? THE FINAL WORD (OR ALMOST) ...

EQUITY STRUCTURE

METHODOLOGY

RESULTS

TIME DEPENDENCY

FIXED-INCOME STRUCTURE

INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS

CONCLUSIONS

REFERENCES

CHAPTER 37 - DOES HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE PREDICT FUTURE PERFORMANCE?

PREVIOUS RESEARCH

PERFORMANCE MEASURES

STYLE ANALYSIS

SURVIVORSHIP BIAS

THE DATA

METHODOLOGY

EQUITY RESULTS

FIXED-INCOME RESULTS

ACCOUNTING FOR FEES AND EXPENSES

SURVIVORSHIP BIAS

SUMMARY OF RESULTS

CONTEXT

INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS

CONCLUSIONS

NOTES

CHAPTER 38 - EVALUATING FUND PERFORMANCE IN A DYNAMIC MARKET

A NUMERICAL EXAMPLE

DATA

TRADITIONAL MEASURES OF PERFORMANCE

CONDITIONAL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION

EXPLAINING BETA CHANGES

CONDITIONAL MARKET TIMING

CONCLUSIONS

NOTES

REFERENCES

CHAPTER 39 - INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE APPRAISAL

TOTAL FUND PERSPECTIVE

PERFORMANCE REPORTS

PERFORMANCE RELATIVE TO THE BENCHMARK

PEER GROUP COMPARISONS

PORTFOLIO CHARACTERISTICS ANALYSIS

PERFORMANCE ATTRIBUTION

RISK ANALYSIS

TAKING ACTION

NOTES

CHAPTER 40 - THINKING OUTSIDE THE BOX: RISK MANAGEMENT FIRMS PUT A CREATIVE ...

A SIMPLE REQUEST

POWERFUL SOLUTIONS

ANSWERING THE CALL

THE 90/10 RULE

STRESSING THE DATA

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AND SIMULATIONS

OUT OF THE BOX . . .

. . . AND ONTO THE CUTTING EDGE

NOTE

PART V - GLOBAL INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE STANDARDS

CHAPTER 41 - GLOBAL INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE STANDARDS

BACKGROUND OF THE GIPS STANDARDS

PROVISIONS OF THE GIPS STANDARDS

VERIFICATION

GIPS ADVERTISING GUIDELINES

OTHER ISSUES

NOTES

REFERENCES

APPENDIX A - GLOBAL INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE STANDARDS (GIPS®)

APPENDIX B - CORRECTIONS TO GIPS STANDARDS 2005

ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS

INDEX

CFA Institute Investment Perspectives Series is a thematically organized compilation of high-quality content developed to address the needs of serious investment professionals. The content builds on issues accepted by the profession in the CFA Institute Global Body of Investment Knowledge and explores less established concepts on the frontiers of investment knowledge. These books tap into a vast store of knowledge of prominent thought leaders who have focused their energies on solving complex problems facing the financial community.

CFA Institute is the global association for investment professionals. It administers the CFA® and CIPM curriculum and exam programs worldwide; publishes research; conducts professional development programs; and sets voluntary, ethics-based professional and performance-reporting standards for the investment industry. CFA Institute has more than 95,000 members, who include the world’s 82,000 CFA charterholders, in 134 countries and territories, as well as 135 affiliated professional societies in 56 countries and territories.

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Research Foundation of CFA Institute is a not-for-profit organization established to promote the development and dissemination of relevant research for investment practitioners worldwide. Since 1965, the Research Foundation has emphasized research of practical value to investment professionals, while exploring new and challenging topics that provide a unique perspective in the rapidly evolving profession of investment management.

To carry out its work, the Research Foundation funds and publishes new research, supports the creation of literature reviews, sponsors workshops an seminars, and delivers online webcasts and audiocasts. Recent efforts from the Research Foundation have addressed a wide array of topics, ranging from private wealth management to quantitative tools for portfolio management.

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Copyright © 2009 by CFA Institute and The Research Foundation of CFA Institute. All rights reserved.

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data:

Investment performance measurement : evaluating and presenting results/Philip Lawton, Todd Jankowski. p. cm.

Includes index.

eISBN : 978-0-470-47371-9

1. Investment analysis. 2. Investments. I. Lawton, Philip (John Philip) II. Jankowski, Todd. HG4529..63’2042—dc22 2009004092

FOREWORD

Investment management firms and their relationship managers need to be able to communicate their results to clients clearly and fairly. Investors, portfolio managers, advisers, and consultants need to be able to evaluate these results and ascertain to what extent performance was attributable to asset allocation, security selection, or other decisions. Technology staff, accountants, and compliance officers also need to understand performance measurement to design and audit systems that generate these results.

The field of performance measurement has made great strides since Gray P. Brinson, L. Randolph Hood, and Gilbert L. Beebower published their pioneering work on attribution analysis in 1986 and the Committee for Performance Reporting Standards of the Financial Analysts Federation (a predecessor of CFA Institute) proposed the development of performance presentation standards in 1987. These Standards have developed progressively over the last 20 years through the work of CFA Institute and almost 30 country sponsors. Today, the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS®) articulate a set of industrywide ethical principles that provide investment firms with guidance on how to calculate and report their investment results. Furthermore, a professional designation program has developed for professionals desiring to specialize in this area: the Certificate in Investment Performance Measurement (CIPM®).

This volume provides the reader with the tools necessary to measure, present, and evaluate investment performance results. It is a compilation of some of the best writings on presenting and evaluating investment performance. These include articles from the Research Foundation of CFA Institute, the Financial Analysts Journal, CFA Institute Conference Proceedings Quarterly, CFA Magazine, and the CIPM program. We are grateful to the distinguished team of authors for sharing their knowledge with investors and investment professionals through CFA Institute.

The 41 papers included here are organized in five sections beginning with an overview and followed by sections on performance measurement (what happened), performance attribution (why it happened), performance appraisal (how the investment manager did), and the Global Investment Performance Standards (how results should be presented).

CFA Institute is pleased to present Investment Performance Measurement: Evaluating and Presenting Results, the second in our CFA Institute Investment Perspectives series. We hope you will find it a useful guide and resource in performance measurement.

Robert R. Johnson, CFA Deputy CEO CFA Institute

INTRODUCTION

Evaluating performance insightfully and presenting it fairly are crucial to the vitality of an investment firm. Security analysts and portfolio managers make decisions under conditions of uncertainty about the relative attractiveness of market sectors and individual investments; the role of performance analysts is to explain the outcome of those decisions. At its best, the intelligent feedback provided by trained, experienced performance analysts can help the firm improve its decision process and refine its investment strategies, and the performance presentations they prepare can contribute to the firm’s success in expanding client relationships and winning new business. Whether markets are rising or falling, resilient investment organizations value highly qualified performance professionals. Indeed, there is a curious countercyclicality to the demand for their expertise: It is when results are most disappointing that cogent explanations are most urgently needed.

In the chapter that opens this volume in the CFA Institute Investment Perspectives series, authors Jeffery V. Bailey, Thomas M. Richards, and David E. Tierney state that three questions arise in the process of evaluating the performance of an account—that is, a portfolio or a group of portfolios:

1. What was the account’s performance?

2. Why did the account produce the observed performance?

3. Is the account’s performance a result of luck or skill?

The first question falls in the domain of performance measurement, more narrowly defined in this context than in common usage. It is answered by calculating the account’s rate of return over the evaluation period. Rate-of-return calculations are relatively straightforward in the case of traditional, long-only equity portfolios holding assets denominated in a single currency, but they are appreciably thornier for portfolios with more esoteric strategies. Once the return of the portfolio has been determined, it remains to judge whether the results meet the client’s expectations, usually by comparing the portfolio’s return with the return of a valid benchmark. Bailey, Richards, and Tierney set forth widely accepted criteria of benchmark validity and useful tests of benchmark quality.

The second question belongs to the realm of performance attribution. It is answered by applying quantitative techniques to establish the sources of the portfolio’s return relative to the benchmark (i.e., to determine which investment decisions added value and, of course, which ones did not). Here, too, the mathematics of attribution analysis is fairly easy to grasp in the case of single-currency, long-only equity portfolios considered over a single evaluation period, but it is more challenging for portfolios holding both long and short positions, measured over multiple periods, or invested in fixed-income securities, derivatives, and assets denominated in multiple currencies. Attribution analysis, often accompanied by portfolio characteristics analysis, enables proficient performance professionals to discern what the firm does well and not so well. It also facilitates productive dialogue with clients who may be reassured to find that the firm is investing as expected, following its mandate and adhering to its discipline even when the agreed-upon strategy is out of favor in the marketplace.

The third, and the most difficult and consequential, question pertains to performance appraisal. When conducting manager searches and monitoring managers’ performance, institutional investors and their consultants seek to identify the investment firms most likely to produce consistently favorable results—firms whose track records arise not merely from fortunate timing but from the competent, disciplined execution of coherent, evidence-based investment strategies. Luck may change at any moment, whereas in stable organizations, skillfulness may reasonably be expected to persist. Because it is costly to terminate an advisory relationship and transfer assets to a new manager, investors must select managers prudently, and if portfolio returns prove disappointing, as they sometimes will, investors must attempt to distinguish between a simple run of bad luck and a much more serious lack, or loss, of skill. It is generally acknowledged, however, that investors cannot definitively establish, in a realistic timeframe, whether investment results are because of the manager’s skill or dumb luck. In practice, therefore, performance appraisal commonly focuses on related and somewhat more decidable issues, to wit, determining whether the manager has taken acceptable risks and whether, over time, the investor has been adequately compensated for them.

In addition to evaluating decisions made on behalf of existing clients, performance professionals employed by investment firms are responsible for preparing presentations for the use of prospective clients. Working in close collaboration with numerous other organizations over the last two decades, CFA Institute has been a leader in developing voluntary performance presentation standards that protect the interests of prospective clients. The Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS®) advance the ethical ideals of presenting investment results fairly and disclosing them fully. The Standards set forth minimum requirements and recommend best practices related to input data, calculation methodology, composite construction, disclosures, and the presentation and reporting of investment performance—all intended to ensure that a firm claiming compliance gives prospective clients complete and accurate information about its historical results. Now widely endorsed (and still evolving), the GIPS standards are a signal contribution to the investment industry, benefiting investors and investment firms around the world. It behooves anyone with an interest in performance measurement to become familiar with them.

The foregoing survey of the field of investment performance measurement accounts for the way in which we have organized the papers selected for this specialized collection from the wealth of CFA Institute publications. Participants in the Certificate in Investment Performance Measurement (CIPM®) program will recognize some papers from their study of the curriculum; this volume contains most of the Principles-level readings and several Expert-level readings.a

OVERVIEW

The “Overview” section contains the outstanding essay, previously mentioned, by Jeffery V. Bailey, Thomas M. Richards, and David E. Tierney. “Evaluating Portfolio Performance” is a masterful introduction to performance measurement, attribution, and appraisal. The authors explain the algebra of time-weighted and money-weighted rates of return, evaluate various types of benchmarks (notably including custom security-based benchmarks), present a widely used method of attribution analysis for individual portfolios and a systematic approach to attribution analysis at the total fund level, and give a well-considered account of the objectives and techniques of performance appraisal, including ex post risk measures, quality control charts, and manager continuation policies. To those who are exploring the field for the first time, the value of this paper is inestimable; however, we recommend it no less enthusiastically to readers long acquainted with the challenges of performance evaluation.

PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT

The section of this book devoted to performance measurement includes only one paper on rate-of-return calculations. In his important treatment of after-tax performance evaluation, James M. Poterba argues that the return calculation methodology should capture the contingent tax liability associated with unrealized gains held in the portfolio at the end of an evaluation period. For the rest, this section centers on issues surrounding the construction and selection of performance benchmarks.

Re-published here in full, Laurence B. Siegel’s monograph “Benchmarks and Investment Management” recounts the historical development of benchmarking in the context of modern portfolio theory and judiciously addresses a range of fundamental and often contentious issues. By comparing the philosophies and methodologies of two major index providers, Christopher G. Luck illustrates how the choice of a benchmark can affect the behavior of active portfolio managers. Lee N. Price describes three progressively accurate techniques for approximating the after-tax return of a pre-tax benchmark. Arguing that generic, capitalization-weighted bond indices do not represent the true opportunity set for most fixed-income portfolios, William L. Nemerever suggests using derivative securities to construct alternative benchmarks. Brent Ambrose and Arthur Warga demonstrate that dollar-duration weighting results in significantly more reliable estimates of fixed-income portfolio yields than the conventional market-value-weighted approach. Finally, Crystal Detamore-Rodman presents the views of several thought leaders on selecting appropriate benchmarks, isolating pure alpha (i.e., the risk-adjusted excess return due not to market exposures but to the portfolio manager’s active decisions), and constructing synthetic universes representing the portfolios that might have been formed from the benchmark’s constituent securities. In their diversity, the articles assembled in this section will give thoughtful readers a solid understanding of the theoretical grounds for benchmarking and the trade-offs encountered in practice.

PERFORMANCE ATTRIBUTION

The section devoted to performance attribution analysis opens with a groundbreaking piece that first appeared almost a quarter century ago, followed by an update published in 1991 and a letter to the Financial Analysts Journal written by one of the authors in 2005. In their short, powerful 1986 article “Determinants of Portfolio Performance,” Gary P. Brinson, L. Randolph Hood, and Gilbert L. Beebower famously presented their finding that, at the total fund level, investment policy—an investor’s decisions about which asset classes to include and what normal weights to assign them—contributes far more to the variation of returns than does active management in the form of market timing and security (or manager) selection. From a performance analyst’s point of view, the decisive importance of this empirical result is matched by the lasting impact of the authors’ conceptual framework for decomposing returns. In “Determinants of Portfolio Performance II: An Update,” Brian D. Singer joins Brinson and Beebower in presenting further, confirmatory research on the total return contributions from policy and active management decisions and in extending the analytical method to capture the effect of internal risk positioning, for instance, by using futures, carrying cash, or hedging currency exposures. In “Determinants of Portfolio Performance—20 Years Later,” L. Randolph Hood reflects on the debate that followed the appearance of the original article. “The consensus,” he writes, “. . . appears to have settled in to agree with us that investment policy will be very important in subsequent results and in describing those results.”

Philip Lawton and Stephen C. Gaudette explain how equity portfolio characteristics analysis can help performance practitioners discern shifts in strategy, evaluate investment style, and determine the return effects of factor exposures. Taking into account the costs of acquiring and trading on information, Daniel C. Indro, Christine X. Jiang, Michael Y. Hu, and Wayne Y. Lee investigate the relationship between mutual fund size and performance.

“Multiperiod Arithmetic Attribution” is the first of three articles by José Menchero included in this collection. The accuracy of widely used arithmetic attribution methodologies, such as the Brinson model, decays when they are applied to extended reporting periods over which portfolios are rebalanced. In light of desirable qualitative characteristics and quantitative properties, Menchero classifies and evaluates competing algorithms designed to eliminate unexplained residuals in multiperiod arithmetic attribution analyses. In “Optimized Geometric Attribution,” he presents a metric-preserving method for distributing the residuals that are generated in the process of geometric buy-and-hold attribution analysis so as to minimize the distortion of sector effects. In “Custom Factor Attribution,” Menchero collaborates with Vijay Poduri in presenting a framework for explaining the sources of risk-adjusted performance by attributing the information ratio (defined as active return divided by the tracking error) to custom factors that reflect the actual investment strategy and decision-making process. The method proposed by Menchero and Poduri may represent a step forward in realizing the promise of performance attribution analysis by aligning it with controllable aspects of the firm’s portfolio management and risk modeling processes. In an article entitled “Return, Risk, and Performance Attribution,” Kevin Terhaar illustrates the need for such consistency by describing cases where attribution analyses that disregard the firm’s investment process, strategy, and risk factors can lead to erroneous results.

Managing portfolios that hold assets issued in foreign markets and denominated in foreign currencies entails making decisions that are not contemplated in domestic investing. We are pleased to republish in its entirety a seminal monograph, “Global Asset Management and Performance Attribution,” in which Denis S. Karnosky and Brian D. Singer develop an analytical framework for evaluating global markets and construct a performance attribution system that isolates the effects of market allocation, currency management, and security selection on portfolio returns. Performance analysts who are familiar with the Karnosky-Singer method from formula-centered summaries in secondary sources, or indeed use it in their work, will likely find that grasping its theoretical basis contributes immeasurably to their understanding of global investment management. In “Currency Overlay in Performance Evaluation,” Cornelia Paape critiques the Karnosky-Singer approach and presents a performance measurement system whose attribution variables separate the effects of active management decisions into market allocation, security selection, currency allocation, and currency selection.

PERFORMANCE APPRAISAL

The section of this book devoted to performance appraisal opens with four articles about hedge fund risks and returns. Bing Liang introduces the topic by describing salient features of hedge funds and reporting the results of a study conducted during a period of strong performance (1992-1996). Stan Beckers focuses on the risk-adjusted returns achieved by funds of hedge funds over the 10-year period 1997-2006 and cautions that “buying beta disguised as alpha is an expensive proposition.” Cynthia Harrington discusses measures investors can take to counteract hedge funds’ characteristic lack of transparency and surveys commonly used risk measures.

Performance analysts may evaluate portfolio managers’ track records in “up” and “down” markets, but they typically do not take the state of the economy into account. Conditional performance evaluation, however, compares a fund’s returns with the returns of a dynamic strategy that matches the fund’s time-varying risk exposures. In “Conditional Performance Evaluation, Revisited,” a Research Foundation of CFA Institute monograph, Wayne E. Ferson and Meijun Qian review the main empirical results of previous studies, expand the list of state variables, present an analysis of mutual funds’ conditional performance at the level of broadly defined style groups, and examine evidence of market-timing ability. By helping to distinguish between luck and skill, conditional performance evaluation may guide investors and consultants toward better decisions about investment managers. Conditional performance evaluation is also presented in a shorter, earlier article by Ferson and Vincent A. Warther that appears further along in this volume.

In his article “Distinguishing True Alpha from Beta,” Laurence B. Siegel describes the dimensions of active management; differentiates active, or alpha, risk from policy, or beta, risk; applies those concepts to hedge funds; and draws out their policy implications for pension funds and other investors.

The Sharpe ratio, as traditionally defined, compares a portfolio’s excess return (that is, its return in excess of the risk-free rate) with the total risk of the portfolio, represented by the standard deviation of returns. It is well known, however, that the theoretical foundation for the Sharpe ratio does not apply when excess returns are not normally distributed. Michael Stutzer reviews three approaches to overcoming this limitation and proposes an alternative performance index that reflects investors’ preference for positive skewness. Angelo Lobosco and Dan DiBartolomeo provide a primer on returns-based style analysis—a form of constrained regression used to determine the weighted combination of market indices that most closely matches the historical return pattern of the portfolio being analyzed—and define a method for establishing confidence intervals around the weights. Andrew W. Lo investigates the statistical properties of the Sharpe ratio and reaches conclusions of considerable practical importance about, for instance, the distorting impact of serial correlation in hedge funds’ monthly returns. In an updated version of “Risk-Adjusted Performance: The Correlation Correction,” Arun S. Muralidhar argues that current measures of risk-adjusted performance, including the Sharpe ratio and the M2 measure, are insufficient bases for ranking mutual funds or constructing portfolios that are likely to earn the highest alpha for a given tracking error. He proposes a new measure, M-3, as a more comprehensive alternative that incorporates the correlation between mutual fund returns and benchmark returns. Muralidhar modestly revised this paper for the present volume, making note of related research into further applications of the M-3 measure in the domain of manager selection.

The “reconstitution effect” is one of the ways in which benchmarking affects markets and institutions. Honghui Chen, Gregory Noronha, and Vijay Singal estimate that investors in funds linked to the S&P 500 Index and the Russell 2000 Index may lose more than US$2 billion a year because of arbitrage around the time of index changes. They describe the arbitrage opportunity as an unintended consequence of the widespread evaluation of index fund managers on the basis of tracking error. Indexers rebalance their portfolios on the effective date in order to minimize tracking error; arbitrageurs buy the stocks to be added to the index when the addition is announced and sell the stocks to the indexers at a higher price on the effective date. In addition to suggesting that tracking error targets are inappropriate, the authors recommend policies that indexing firms might adopt to limit arbitrageurs’ front running of index funds.

Two papers center on calculating and interpreting the information ratio, a fundamentally important measure of risk-adjusted performance that compares the benchmark-relative excess return of an investment strategy with its excess risk. Neil Constable and Jeremy Armitage consider the interaction of information ratios with “batting averages,” another frequently quoted measure of success defined as the percentage of investment decisions that led to a profit. The information ratio does not describe the series of successes and failures that led to the outcome it expresses, whereas the batting average contains only directional information. Constable and Armitage demonstrate that the two measures can be usefully combined to give investors a more comprehensive view of their choices. Thomas H. Goodwin rigorously sets forth how the information ratio is defined, annualized, and interpreted, including helpful accounts of its relationship to the Sharpe ratio and the t-statistic.

Roger G. Ibbotson and Paul D. Kaplan reprise the question raised by Brinson et al., namely, how much of the variability of returns across time is explained by policy (about 90 percent in the sample and over the period the authors studied), and additionally ask how much of the variation in returns among funds is explained by differences in policy (about 40 percent) and what portion of the return level is explained by policy return (on average about 100 percent).

Institutional investors, such as pension plans and charitable foundations, engage managers for specific roles within diversified, multiple-asset-class, multiple-manager investment programs, and they expect the managers to invest in accordance with their mandates. Several papers selected for this volume address key aspects of manager selection and monitoring. John G. Gallo and Larry J. Lockwood present the results of an empirical study of mutual funds that underwent management changes during the 1983-1991 period. They find significant differences in performance, risk, and investment style after the management changes. Louisa Wright Sellers describes how her organization, a well-established family office, selects and monitors hedge funds and other external managers and explains what she considers catalysts for changing managers. Philip Halpern, Nancy Calkins, and Tom Ruggels share lessons derived from their own experience and comment on three possible reasons why it is so difficult for institutional investors to succeed in selecting consistently outperforming managers: The evaluation criteria are inappropriate, the search process is flawed, or the number of truly skillful managers is so small that still greater effort is required to find them. In a paper that deserves to be recognized as a classic, Ronald N. Kahn and Andrew Rudd examine in-sample and out-of-sample track records of equity and fixed-income mutual funds for evidence of persistent performance. They find evidence of persistence of selection returns among fixed-income funds but no such evidence for equity funds, and they consider the investment implications of these findings. Kahn and Rudd advocate basing active manager selections on information that goes beyond historical performance.

John P. Meier focuses on determining whether managers are doing what is expected of them. Written from the total fund perspective, his paper “Investment Performance Appraisal” is an integrative case study proficiently demonstrating the application of analytical approaches and the exercise of professional judgment in monitoring and evaluating an investment manager.

Susan Trammell’s informative, nontechnical report on developments in the risk management industry closes the performance appraisal section of this work.

GLOBAL INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE STANDARDS

Presenting investment results is, as we previously observed, one of the ways in which performance professionals contribute to their firms’ growth. In an industry that is based upon credibility and trust, however, the quality of performance presentations has implications greater than the fortunes of any one firm. Founded on the ideals of fair representation and full disclosure of an investment management firm’s performance history, the voluntary Global Investment Performance Standards contain provisions requiring certain practices and recommending others in such areas as input data, rate-of-return calculation methodologies, and performance presentations. Philip Lawton and W. Bruce Remington recount the history and explain the provisions of the GIPS standards, with attention to many practical issues that arise in the course of firmwide implementation. (The official text of the Standards in effect as of this writing is also included as an appendix in this volume.) The development of the GIPS standards continues apace as the GIPS Executive Committee and its technical subcommittees address outstanding and emerging issues, and we encourage readers seeking the most up-to-date guidance to visit the website at www.gipsstandards.org.

SUMMARY

This volume contains the insights of 56 contributors who have spent a great deal of their professional lives focusing on performance evaluation. And as a result, the material presented here is diverse, in depth, and of great practical value. We are delighted to present this resource to the performance measurement community. We hope it serves as a foundation for future innovation in analytical frameworks that address the growing needs of asset management firms and their clients for accurate, useful information about investment results.

Philip Lawton, CFA, CIPM Todd Jankowski, CFA

PART I

OVERVIEW OF PERFORMANCE EVALUATION

CHAPTER 1

EVALUATING PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE

Jeffery V. Bailey, CFA Thomas M. Richards, CFA David E. Tierney

The ex post analysis of investment performance stands as a prominent and ubiquitous feature of modern investment management practice. Investing involves making decisions that have readily quantifiable consequences and that, at least on the surface, lend themselves to elaborate dissection and review. We broadly refer to the measurement and assessment of the outcomes of these investment management decisions as At the institutional investor level, and to a lesser (but growing) extent on the individual investor level, a large industry has developed to satisfy the demand for performance evaluation services. Although some observers contend that performance evaluation is misguided, frequently misapplied, or simply unattainable with any reasonable degree of statistical confidence, we believe that analytic techniques representing best practices can lead to valid insights about the sources of past returns, and such insights can be useful inputs for managing an investment program.