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- Herausgeber: Biteback Publishing
- Kategorie: Wissenschaft und neue Technologien
- Sprache: Englisch
- Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2023
Mission Zero is a landmark independent report into the delivery of the UK's commitment to net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. Chaired by Chris Skidmore, the UK's former Energy Minister who was responsible for signing net zero into law, its conclusions set out, for the very first time, a new economic narrative for climate policy, demonstrating the vast financial opportunity that net zero can deliver. This timely and crucial report acts as a template for how all countries can map out future challenges and opportunities and, above all, deliver their own pathway to net zero while also creating new jobs, industries and investment for the future. Commissioned by the UK's Prime Minister in September 2022, Mission Zero is the largest engagement exercise on net zero conducted to date and has been widely recognised as the most informative and detailed document on the topic, covering every sector and aspect of society. This important book is a vital piece of work and an indispensable must-read for anyone interested in energy, climate and sustainability policy.
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“Misson Zero is a remarkable and important piece of work. It provides a clear analysis of, and guide to, the extraordinary opportunities that lie in building a new approach to growth and energy in the UK. This new approach also delivers on net zero by 2050 and the necessary path to limit temperature increases to ‘well below 2˚C’ by 2050, consistent with the Paris Agreement. That approach is much more dynamic, innovative and attractive than the dirty and destructive paths we have followed in the past. The report also shows that clear and strong strategies and policies will be necessary to deliver on the investment and innovation required to generate the new path and manage the process of change, so that all can benefit. It is a model of clarity and rigour in its analysis and draws on careful consultation across society, industry, politics and the UK’s nations. It should be read by all who are interested in growth, climate and the environment. It carries important lessons for countries across the world on how to take the transition to the zero-carbon economy forward. A tremendous achievement.”
Nicholas Stern, Baron Stern of Brentford, crossbench peer, author of The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review, IG Patel Professor of Economics and Government and Chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at LSE
“The Skidmore report is the culmination of one of the largest UK-wide engagement exercises on net zero … The resulting report is a comprehensive analysis of how the UK’s net zero target can be delivered in an economically valuable way by 2050. If there was any lingering doubt at the outset of the review over whether it would find growth and net zero compatible, the report well and truly puts the question to bed.”
The Carbon Trust
“Chris Skidmore’s clarity in his call for accelerated action is as compelling as it is commendable, nailing the argument that inaction now will cost us all in the long run.”
Sir John Armitt, chair of the National Infrastructure Commission
“This is an excellent review by Chris Skidmore – extensive engagement and a fresh expression of the economic case for net zero (and the competitiveness risks of going slow). Plaudits for focusing on the essential topic of ‘delivery’. ”
Chris Stark, chief executive of the Climate Change Committee
“We welcome the Skidmore review … We agree with the conclusion that net zero is the growth opportunity of the twenty-first century and could offer major economic opportunities to the UK.”
Rishi Sunak, UK Prime Minister
“An excellent report … headed by the former minister Chris Skidmore. Its 129 recommendations should be adopted, pretty much in their entirety.”
William Hague, Baron Hague of Richmond, former UK Foreign Secretary and leader of the Conservative Party
To Clemmie, Henry and Ottie.
Contents
Introduction
Back in June 2019, the UK became the first G7 country to sign our commitment to net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 into law. This landmark commitment followed on from the passing of the pioneering Climate Change Act in 2008 – making the UK the first major country to establish a clear governance framework on how to achieve emissions reductions and showcasing our international climate leadership.
I was fortunate to have been the UK’s Energy Minister at the time, responsible for signing our net zero commitment into law. The impact was immediate: within weeks, I had managed also to help secure the UK’s successful candidacy to host COP26 in Glasgow. The UK was considered a global climate leader, the leading nation in the G20 to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by nearly 50% compared to 1990 levels. Two years later, at COP26, the Glasgow Climate Pact demonstrated the UK’s ability to bring nations together to deliver on emissions reduction targets by 2030. As a result, over 90% of the world’s GDP, represented by 80% of all nations, pledged to a net zero target in some form.
The reality is that we are now in a global net zero race. The rest of the world, along with international investment communities, have woken up to the fact that energy transition is a new economic reality. The year 2022 marked a watershed moment for global investment in net zero – not least from the US Inflation Reduction Act, with its commitment of placing clean technologies at the heart of future economic strategy. The global reality of the energy crisis and rising gas and fossil fuel prices in 2022 also demonstrated the importance of delivering future energy security through the greater use of domestically generated renewable and clean sources of power, while seeking to better reduce energy demand.
Net zero is not merely the essential policy framework to meet our climate commitments from the Paris Agreement, it has become, as the review sets out, the economic opportunity of our generation.
After leaving government in 2020, I decided to continue to champion not only the environmental importance of net zero but its economic value too. I became chair of the cross-party Environment All Party Group, as well as setting up the Net Zero Support Group of Conservative MPs. When the Conservative leadership contest took place in the summer of 2022, I was also determined to ensure that every candidate demonstrated their support for net zero. This included organising a hustings so candidates could set out their wider vision on climate action, as well as helping to create a Conservative Environment Pledge that committed candidates who signed to delivering net zero by 2050.
When Liz Truss was elected as leader of the Conservative Party and became Prime Minister in September 2022, I received a call from her asking me to chair an independent review into net zero. I was to produce a report within three months on how net zero could be achieved in a more affordable and more efficient manner, one which was pro-business and pro-growth.
The Net Zero Review may have taken place only across 100 days, but I was determined to ensure that it was the largest engagement exercise ever undertaken on net zero. The review sought to engage, listen and learn from businesses, organisations, industries and communities from across the UK. We received over 1800 written submissions as part of our official Call for Evidence – testament to the strong interest in delivering on net zero – as well as holding over 50 evidence roundtables, visiting every devolved nation in the UK and region in England. I spoke personally to a thousand participants in our engagement sessions.
The recommendations made in this review came from this extensive engagement. I sought to understand not only the barriers that are preventing businesses, regions, communities, and households from taking further action to decarbonise but to also explore the opportunities that can catalyse further economic growth.
Above all, the Net Zero Review sought to ask how the UK can deliver on its net zero commitments by demonstrating how to deliver and implement most effectively and efficiently a plan for our future energy transition. Climate commitments and net zero targets remain just words on a page without a clear, consistent, and stable transition plan.
The review’s recommendations require not merely action but careful decisions to be taken. Central to delivering net zero will be making the right decisions at the right time, to ensure that we achieve net zero in the most efficient manner possible. A crucial element of making decisions, however, is recognising that to delay making them creates new consequences, the costs of which can be greater than previously anticipated. Equally, rushed and poorly executed decision-making can produce adverse consequences, with similar costs.
This review sought to establish how best to create a delivery ecosystem to achieve the best possible decisions for the future. This requires not just government to play its role – it’s also very important that we empower the agency of regions, local communities, and individuals to play a greater role in their own net zero journey. The question of how we create a ‘big bang’ moment for net zero, enabling and unleashing the potential of the whole of the UK to seize the opportunities that net zero presents, was a key focus in the review.
Across the review, I sought to make recommendations for government, for each sector and industry, for local regions and authorities, and indeed, for individual households. Net zero decision-making requires action, not merely from government but from all stakeholders involved. Not all these recommendations will be able to be implemented immediately: indeed, the over-riding message of the review is that we must deliver greater certainty, consistency and clarity across net zero policy making, with a stability of approach that requires long-term planning.
The Net Zero Review was clear that there are recommendations that can be taken forward now; there will be others that the government will be unable to take forward without further engagement and consultation with industry and communities. It is also understood that government will not be able to accept every recommendation. However, where it can act now, I argued that the costs of doing so will be less if action is taken sooner.
The Net Zero Review made in total 129 recommendations to government but at the same time took an approach that recognises what recommendations should be taken forward now, with a ‘25 by 2025’ framework – 25 policies that could be realistically delivered by 2025 – alongside other wider recommendations. Each recommendation, however, was set an individual timeframe for expected delivery. At the same time, the review set out ten 10-year missions, hence the title of the report, Mission Zero. It set an achievable outcome across a range of key sectors, including grid and infrastructure, solar, onshore wind, nuclear, industrial decarbonisation, energy efficiency and buildings, greater local action, the circular economy, research and development, and enhancing the role of nature in net zero.
The impact of the Net Zero Review and the Mission Zero report has been wider than I could have expected. The government officially responded to the review’s recommendations in detail at the end of March 2023, accepting around 70 recommendations both in terms of the policy and the timeframe and agreeing to take up another 30 recommendations without committing to a timeframe. Of the 29 recommendations that the government did not accept, some, such as a net zero duty on Ofgem, have subsequently been adopted during the passage of the Energy Bill through Parliament.
The Net Zero Review was intended, however, to be truly independent and cross-party. I met with all political parties during the course of the review’s engagement and consultation period, and I hope that its recommendations, set across a long-term period and calling for long-term strategic and stable policy frameworks, can be reconsidered and adopted by whichever political party forms the next administration after the general election in 2024. Net zero by 2050 will only be achieved if all political parties can agree consensus on climate action, given that there will likely be several administrations of different political persuasion on the road to net zero.
But we also need to recognise that net zero is not merely about a distant target. It is also about halving emissions globally by 2030. Nearly every country has set ambitious targets for decarbonisation in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), as part of the UNFCCC process established under the Paris Agreement. Many countries now need, in the next seven years and counting, to step up and deliver real-time, real-terms emissions reductions. At the same time, there are increasing calls for a global commitment to trebling renewable power generation by 2030 and doubling energy efficiency measures by the same date.
To achieve this and more, I believe many countries can learn from the process undertaken in the UK’s Net Zero Review. Bringing all sectors, regions, and organisations together to map out effectively not only what needs to be achieved but how it can best be delivered and implemented on the ground and identifying the challenges and barriers currently in the way of effective decarbonisation – what I term the ‘debris on the tracks’ – was an invaluable process that helped to bring both the climate and business community together to talk openly about shared challenges and opportunities.
It is for this reason that I am publishing Mission Zero as a book, to not only give its recommendations a wider readership but also to ensure that the Net Zero Review itself can be used as a policy framework for other countries. Those seeking to deliver net zero more effectively and meet their NDC goals for 2030 can plan ahead and potentially use the Net Zero Review as a template for further climate action.
Ultimately, net zero will not be achieved without taking the whole of society with it: like any other transition, its success depends on ensuring that citizens and people are active participants and authors of their own net zero stories. I hope that Mission Zero can not only help the UK to continue to deliver on its net zero commitments but also ensure that other countries can follow its lead in recognising that net zero is an opportunity, not a cost. Net zero can deliver greater prosperity, economic growth, health, and happiness in communities across the world.
Rt Hon. Chris Skidmore OBE
Chair, The Net Zero Review and former UK Energy Minister
Executive Summary
The net zero review was perhaps the largest national engagement on net zero
1. The Net Zero Review travelled to all four nations of the UK, received over 1800 responses to the Call for Evidence, and held more than 50 roundtables, making it one of the largest engagement exercises on net zero in the UK. We heard a clear message from businesses, organisations, individuals, and local government across the country: net zero is creating a new era of opportunity, but government, industry, and individuals need to act to make the most of the opportunities, reduce costs, and ensure we deliver successfully.
2. The Review is split into two parts:
Part 1 explains the opportunity and benefits to individuals and the economy. It places domestic action in an international context and emphasises that the UK must go further and faster to realise the economic benefits of net zero.Part 2 sets out how to achieve this opportunity, across six pillars. It makes recommendations to catalyse action in individual sectors of the economy, and to enhance the role of local authorities, communities, and individuals to deliver net zero.3. The recommendations in this Review show how action can be taken in the short, medium, and long term to turbocharge our delivery, set clear roadmaps that provide the certainty needed for investment and R&D, and deliver net zero in a pro-growth, pro-business, low-cost way.
Net zero is the growth opportunity of the 21st century
4.The UK should be proud of the steps it has taken to achieve net zero. Progress since 2019 has exceeded expectations. In setting the net zero target, the United Kingdom was building on the progress of many years – not least a quiet transformation of our power system, from one dominated by coal, to one increasingly driven by a clean and endless supply of wind blowing across the North Sea.
5.The economy and climate change are intertwined. While this Review has a clear focus on ways to achieve growth and reduce the costs of net zero, it is impossible to consider this in isolation from the physical risks that climate change presents. In a high emission future, the level of global disruption will be so severe that ‘normal’ economic activity will become very challenging.
6. The Review has heard loud and clear that net zero is the economic opportunity of the 21st century. The evidence presented to the Review has shown that the pace of recent change has created a rush of economic opportunity at a massive, global scale. With more than 90% of global GDP covered by a net zero target1 there is now huge global momentum to reach net zero and capture the economic opportunities. This is driven by businesses of all sizes who have recognised that net zero can help them grow.
7.The UK is well-placed to take advantage. McKinsey estimates a global market opportunity of £1 trillion for British businesses by 20302 and the Government estimates that the transition can support 480,000 jobs in 2030.3 The UK enjoys a comparative advantage over other advanced economies in several key areas – notably offshore wind, carbon capture and storage, and green finance – and so can capitalise on export opportunities from the global transition.
8.We must act decisively to seize the opportunities in a global race. We are not alone in seeing the opportunity around the world. Countries and businesses have woken up. From the USA’s $369 billion investment in clean technology through the Inflation Reduction Act4 and the ‘France 2030’ investment plan in France5 to the EU’s ‘Fit for 55’ programme6 it is clear we are in an international race for capital, skills, and the industries of the future. We must act quickly, and in collaboration with our international partners, to cement the UK as a prime destination for international capital and unlock export opportunities for British businesses around the globe. Failing to do so will mean missed opportunities.
9.We must move quickly. We have heard from businesses that economic opportunities are being missed today because of weaknesses in the UK’s investment environment – whether that be skills shortages or inconsistent policy commitment. Moving quickly must include spending money. We know that investing in net zero today will be cheaper than delaying, as well as increasing the economic and climate benefits. Analysis suggests that delaying action by ten years could mean UK debt could be 23% of GDP higher in 2050, doubling the fiscal cost of achieving net zero and not capitalising on economies of scale.7 Oxford research has shown that a fast transition to net zero based on scaling up key green technologies will continue to drive their costs down, and transitioning to a decarbonised energy system based on green technologies by 2050 can save the world at least $12 trillion, compared to continuing our current levels of fossil fuel use.8
10. Ultimately, the benefits of net zero will outweigh the costs. In some estimates, the UK would see approximately 2% additional growth in GDP, through the benefits from new jobs, increased economic activity, reduced fossil fuel imports and cost savings (for example cheaper household bills).9 These estimates do not reflect the risk and disruption of not acting, which would run so clearly counter to the prevailing expectations of business and global trends. For all that there are some risks to the public from the transition, considered in detail in this Review, for the individual the benefits of net zero will – particularly with the right interventions by government – outweigh the costs. This Review sets out recommendations to provide clarity and certainty to businesses and investors and offers a view on how to back up the UK’s ambitious net zero vision with clear delivery pathways.
The challenge of translating bold ambition into action
11. The Government’s Net Zero Strategy sets out the UK’s decarbonisation pathway out to 2037, based on modelling on the most cost-effective net zero energy system in 2050. New analysis conducted over the course of the Review shows that this is still the right pathway and the policies outlined in the Strategy should go ahead. Delay is a significant risk. Our engagement and own analysis have shown that the benefits of decarbonisation are larger if it is done sooner.
12. We have made great progress decarbonising already with success stories in offshore wind and electric vehicles and it is essential we continue these. However, too often, we heard of problems hampering business and local areas from going as far and as fast as they want to. Whether it is lack of policy clarity, capital waiting for investible propositions, infrastructure bottlenecks, or delays in the planning system, it is clear that we need action to catalyse the deployment of clean solutions, particularly if we want British companies to capture the economic benefits.
13.This is too important to get wrong. Delivering net zero is the industrial revolution of our time – and climate change the greatest threat. Not only can the transition deliver a thriving, modern, green economy but it can materially improve people’s lives. Supporting nature must be an essential part of the UK’s response. A thriving natural environment is inextricably linked with protecting our climate and growing our economy.
14.Work is needed to secure the benefits and minimise costs. We are at a crossroads. We can either go further and faster in the transition, capitalising on our comparative advantages on clean technologies, our world-class science base, our global leadership on financial services and the natural power reserves of the North Sea – or we can hold up our hands and say it is too difficult and watch our world-leading sectors, such as the City of London or our advanced car manufacturing, pack up and move on, taking high-skilled, high-paying jobs with them.
15. The Review’s findings are unequivocal: we must grab this opportunity, there is no future economy but a green economy. And with the recommendations set out to turbocharge our approach across key industries, catalyse action in homes, community halls, and local and national government across the country, we can.
A mission approach for a pro-growth, pro-business transition
16. The Review has listened and engaged with almost every sector to identify the barriers to future delivery, as well as the opportunities that could be seized in the future. Overwhelmingly, the common message has been the need for clarity, certainty, consistency, and continuity from government. Sectors have indicated that a long-term, stable investment plan is required. We have identified ten priority missions to harness public and private action out to 2035:
17. This Review sets out to assess how we deliver a more affordable and efficient transition. It is clear that we bring down costs by creating certainty and stability and that by early action we can build industries and supply chains in the UK, producing growth. The Review’s recommendations unblock barriers across the policy landscape, from how to decarbonise oil and gas extraction to providing clarity for industry through a long-term vision for the UK Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). It makes the case for more long-term delivery frameworks to tackle the challenges we face and unlock the benefits there for the taking.
18. The Review’s evidence points towards some basic principles of effective net zero decision-making that should underpin this action. We must:
Quickly take the decisions we know we have to. This is how we will achieve net zero in a more affordable and efficient way, at the same time as providing certainty for inward investment in the UK;Invest in research and development so we are ready to take decisions that we know we are going to have to make, such as rolling out demonstrator projects; andPrepare the ground with agile and flexible policy frameworks so we are ready for the future, resilient in the face of uncertainty, and equipped to act at speed when opportunities arise.Infrastructure is the key that will unlock net zero
19. The net zero clock is ticking. To achieve net zero by 2050 and our international and domestic commitments on the way, we need to act quickly and decisively. Infrastructure will be key. The Review heard from hundreds of innovative companies eager to bring new technologies to market but being hampered by slow, ponderous bureaucracy and an antiquated approach to grid connections not suitable for a modern 21st century electrified economy. The Review recommends:
Accelerating the implementation of the British Energy Security Strategy to finally update the mandate of Ofgem, create the Future System Operator which is essential to a holistic approach to solve the challenges of our future, multi-fuel energy system and accelerate the connection of our cheap renewable generationA cross-sectoral infrastructure strategy by 2025. We need to rapidly build and adapt the infrastructure for electricity, hydrogen, other liquid and gaseous fuels and CO2 networks that support our green economy. The scale of this challenge, and the breadth, is too much to be left to the whims of individual projectsReforming our approach to planning, streamlining processes and, where locally supported, unleashing solar and developing onshore wind, the cheapest forms of generation, to be rapidly deployed in communities across the country and enable local people to reap the benefits of local, low-carbon generationCreating sustainable governance structures
20. None of this will happen without a step change in the government’s approach to delivering net zero. For all the UK’s past success and future ambition, the Review has heard from many respondents frustrated by a lack of long-term thinking, siloed behaviour from government departments, and uncertainty over the length of funding commitments. Evidence suggests this is holding back deployment of green technologies, hampering investment across all sectors, and inhibiting the ability to create British jobs. To unlock this, and bring the clarity, certainty, and consistency desperately needed, the Review recommends:
An over-arching government financing strategy by the end of 2023, giving long-term clarity to business and investors and ensuring we capitalise on our industrial strengthsA long-term programmatic approach to net zero projects and considering longer-term funding certainty for major priorities for net zero – where we know that long-term policy commitment will be essential for successAn Office for Net Zero Delivery, responsible for placing net zero delivery at the heart of government thinking, ensuring best practice for key delivery projects, and taking ownership of net zero priorities where they span multiple departmentsBacking businesses
21. The private sector is critical to the net zero transition. Their investment and innovation will bring low-carbon technology to the mass market. They will drive many of the benefits we will all experience from net zero, not least economic growth.
22. The UK economy is transitioning towards net zero – with businesses decarbonising and capturing new opportunities. But the Review has heard from the hundreds of businesses consulted that more is needed. In many cases, cross-cutting actions is required – on skills, support for small and medium businesses, and providing the right investment environment. The Review recommends:
Reviewing incentives for investment: Review how HMT incentivises investment in decarbonisation, including via the tax system and capital allowancesProtecting industries from environmental undercutting: Progress with the consultation on carbon leakage measures and speed up decision-making to enable Government to implement effective future carbon leakage mitigations from 2026Providing a forward look on the ETS: To provide businesses with certainty and increase the incentives to invest in new, green technologies, the government should work within the UK ETS Authority to develop a pathway for the UK ETS until 2040Building the skills needed for the transition: Drive forward delivery of the Green Jobs Taskforce recommendations and the commitments from the Net Zero Strategy, reporting regularly on progress starting by mid-2023Helping SMEs upskill: Launch a ‘Help to Grow Green’ campaign, offering information resources and vouchers for SMEs to plan and invest in the transition23. A more resource efficient economy can drive down costs for businesses and individuals, create new jobs, and reduce exposure to rising commodity prices. The Review recommends a mission to kickstart transition to a circular economy through a joint taskforce on circular business models, working to end the export of plastic waste, and delivery of planned waste reforms.
Catalysing local action
24. The Review is also clear that there must be more place-based, locally led action on net zero. Our local areas and communities want to act on net zero, but too often government gets in the way. The Government must provide central leadership on net zero, but it must also empower people and places to deliver. Place-based action on net zero will not only lead to more local support but will deliver better economic outcomes as well. The Review recommends:
Reforming the planning system at local and national level to ensure it properly supports net zero. One of the starkest messages from hundreds of organisations and individuals is that the planning system is undermining net zero and the economic opportunities that come with it. The Review recommends wide-ranging local planning reform – from the introduction of a net zero test to a rapid review of bottlenecks in the system – to ensure that it is fully aligned with our net zero futureSimplifying the local net zero funding landscape to make it more efficient and productive for both central and local government. Local authorities are a key partner in delivering net zero, but current central government funding arrangements are standing in the way of effective local action. Stakeholders told us that the funding landscape is disjointed, unfair, and expensive for local authorities to navigate. The Review recommends wholescale simplification of local net zero funding, including consolidation of different pots and a reduction in competitive bidding. These changes will save both central and local government time and money, as well as do more to encourage a systems-wide approach to delivering net zeroProviding full backing to a set of ‘trailblazer’ places that want to go further and faster on net zero, with the aim of reaching net zero by 2030Increasing transparency and engaging people
25.The government must talk to the public about net zero. Net zero will affect everyone in the UK and nearly half the policies in the government’s Net Zero Strategy rely on individual action. There is widespread support for net zero, but often this is undermined by a lack of information, cost, and opportunities we cannot access. The Review sets out how the government can change that by putting public engagement at the heart of its work on net zero. We recommend:
A major expansion of the government’s public reporting on net zero. What gets measured gets done – and people deserve to understand the changes that are happening and being planned. We recommend improving and increasing the information available to the public about net zero and doing more to track public attitudes and experiencesGovernment ramps up engagement with the public on net zero, publishing a public engagement strategy To put power in people’s hands, go further on information provision through the creation of a Carbon Calculator, providing consumers with the information they need to make the choices they wantGovernment continues to work with industry towards introducing a standardised approach to ecolabelling for as many products as possible by 2025. To support transparency, government should review options for a Net Zero Charter mark as a gold standard for sustainabilityDelivering cleaner, cheaper, greener homes
26. The cheapest energy is the energy we do not use and by improving the insulation and heating sources of our homes we will have warmer, cleaner places to live. New analysis for the Review shows that the transition can save an average household a cumulative £400–£6,000 by 2050.10 Government should be commended for its recent actions on energy efficiency, such as targeting demand reduction, but we must go further and faster. The Review calls for:
Government to bring forward all consultations and work to mandate the Future Homes Standard by 2025 and for all homes sold to be EPC C by 2033. A Net Zero Homes Standard should be considered for the future, as homes that have taken the appropriate steps to be as efficient as possible through a mixture of fabric and low carbon heating measures will be more financially desirable to live in, buy, and sellAlongside this, government must urgently adopt a 10-year mission to make heat pumps a widespread technology in the UK and regulate now for the end of new and replacement gas boilers by 2033 at the latest. Ensuring we turbocharge our adoption of heat pumps and low carbon heating sources, ending our reliance on fossil fuels in our homes once and for allTo provide clarity for consumers, government must urgently reform EPC ratings to create a clearer, more accessible Net Zero Performance Certificate (NZPC) for householdsCapitalising on our international leadership
27. The UK has had a leading role in global climate action in the last decade. Our roles as COP26 president and recent G7 Presidency put us in a strong position to lead the way for increased ambitions globally, showing leadership and setting the direction for decarbonisation. We now need to retain this position without these platforms, remaining a key player in the global debate. This would enable us to promote UK solutions globally – creating economic growth and investment in the UK economy. The Review recommends that government should:
Conduct a strategic review on the UK’s international climate leadership by 2023Establish a baseline for environmental and climate protections in future free trade agreements and for removal of trade barriers to environmental goods and servicesSetting ourselves up for 2050 and beyond
28. Decisions taken today will be critical for the UK’s ability to decarbonise in a pro-growth and low-cost way in the years leading up to 2050. They will also set the stage for the kind of economy and society we want after 2050. The UK must apply this long-term view to all of the issues raised in this Review. In particular, there are three areas that require action today, with a view to the 2040s, 2050s and beyond:
The government, working with sectoral leads by Autumn 2023, must apply whole systems thinking to create an R&D and technology roadmap outlining the key decision points that must be made to ensure priority technologies deliver on the UK’s net zero and growth ambitionsBEIS and HMT should review how to incentivise greater R&D for net zero, including considering the role of clarity on research priorities and government support, tax credits, greater ring-fencing of R&D spend, and enabling regulationsGovernment must make regulatory processes agile enough to match that of innovation by a) establishing up to three new R&D demonstrator projects, out to 2035, aligning with the ten-year missions set out by this review, and b) including in forthcoming work from the Office for Science and Technology Strategy (OSTS) how regulators can provide more opportunity for demonstrations for net zero technologies25 key actions for 2025
29. Tackling the biggest challenges will require government and industry work in partnership, over the long term, bringing about a new economy. This will bring green British jobs, and an economy that is solving global challenges and capturing opportunities to export our technologies and expertise. To go further, faster, the Review calls for action on our key 25 for 2025 recommendations:
Legislate by 2025 the minimum energy efficiency rating to EPC B for all non-domestic buildings, both rented and owned, by 2030.
Legislate for EPC B rating for all new non-domestic buildings from 2025.
4Stable environment for business to plan and investConduct and publish, before Autumn 2023, a review of how we should change regulation for emerging net zero technologies to enable their rapid and safe introduction, to support the net zero transition and boost growth.5Stable environment for business to plan and investBy the end of 2023 HMT should review how policy incentivises investment in decarbonisation, including via the tax system and capital allowances.6Stable environment for business to plan and investThrough their update to the Green Finance Strategy, BEIS and HMT should set out a clear, robust and ambitious approach to disclosure, standard setting, and scaling up green finance – including how it will meet existing commitments to implement Sustainable Disclosure Requirements across the economy; how it will provide a clear, long-term plan for attracting capital to meet net zero ambitions, and how to maintain the UK’s position as the leading green finance hub internationally and metrics for success.7Stable environment for business to plan and investA new forum to coordinate across all regulators on the signals they are sending to businesses and investors across sectors about the net zero transition – including Ofwat, Ofgem, Environment Agency, Competition and Markets Authority, FCA, and the North Sea Transition Authority.8Long-term funding certaintyAt the next Spending Review, review options for providing longer-term certainty to a small number of major priorities for net zero – where we know that long-term policy commitment will be essential for success and provide long-term opportunities to save money.9Stable environment for business to plan and investPublish an overarching financing strategy covering how existing and future government spending, policies, and regulation will scale up private finance to deliver the UK’s net zero enabled growth and energy security ambitions. This should include setting out the role of UKIB, BBB, BII, and IPA and UKEF in the transition.10CCUSIn 2023, government must act quickly to re-envisage and implement a clear CCUS roadmap, showing the plan beyond 2030. As part of the roadmap, government should take a pragmatic approach to cluster selection. This means allowing the most advanced clusters to progress more quickly.11Accelerating renewablesSet up taskforce and deployment roadmaps in 2023 for solar to reach up to 70GW by 2035 and onshore wind to reach required deployment levels for 2035 net zero grid.12HydrogenBy the end of 2023, develop and implement an ambitious and pragmatic ‘10 year’ delivery roadmap for the scaling up of hydrogen production. Government should deliver hydrogen business models as soon as legislation allows and confirm the long-term funding envelope available for hydrogen revenue support, to incentivise timely investment.13NuclearImplement reforms set out in the British Energy Security Strategy to double down on achieving UK’s nuclear baseload requirement:
A. Expedite the set-up of Great British Nuclear in early 2023, ensuring required funding and skills are in place;
B. Government and GBN to set out clear roadmap in 2023 for reaching final investment decision in the next Parliament. Government to ensure funding is in place. As part of the roadmap, government should assess the possibility to increase the current ambitions supporting the development of supply chain to service a fleet of projects;
C. Roadmap to set out clear pathways for different nuclear technologies (including small modular reactors) and the selection process. This should consider how to use programmatic approach to deliver further cost reductions in a competitive environment;
D. Government to deliver on siting strategy by 2024.
14Empowering consumersOfgem should maintain focus on a timely implementation of its market-wide half-hourly settlement.15TransportSwift delivery of ZEV mandate to apply from 2024 while maintaining regulations and funding to support EV/ZEV uptake and continuing to drive emission reductions from internal combustion engines.16Food, agriculture and naturePublish a Land Use framework as soon as possible, and by mid-2023.17Circular EconomyLaunch a task force to work jointly with industry to identify barriers and enablers and develop sector-specific circular economy business models for priority sectors. This should have representation from BEIS, Defra, DLUHC, HMT and DIT, and include the role of Extended Producer Responsibility in promoting reuse, repair, remanufacturing, and rental alongside recycling, in line with the powers under the Environment Act 2021.18Oil and GasPublish an offshore industries integrated strategy by the end of 2024 which should include roles and responsibilities for electrification of oil and gas infrastructure, how the planning and consenting regime will operate, a plan for how the system will be regulated, timetables and sequencing for the growth and construction of infrastructure, and a skills and supply chain plan for growth of the integrated industries.19Oil and GasAccelerate the end to routine flaring from 2030 to 2025.20Local and regionalFully back at least one Trailblazer Net Zero City, Local Authority and Community, with the aim for these places to reach net zero by 2030.21Local and regionalReform the local planning system and the National Planning Policy Framework now. Have a clearer vision on net zero with the intention to introduce a net zero test, give clarity on when local areas can exceed national standards, give guidance on LAEP, encourage greater use of spatial planning and the creation of Net Zero Neighbourhood plans, and set out a framework for community benefits.22IndividualsPublish a public engagement plan for England by 2023, to ramp up public engagement on net zero.23InternationalConduct a strategic review of the UK’s international climate leadership and ensure the 2030 Strategic Framework on Climate and Nature provides practical direction for the UK’s international climate and nature leadership.24Carbon MarketsBy 2024, work within the UK ETS Authority to develop a pathway for the UK ETS until 2040. This pathway should:
A. Set out a vision on the future design and operation of the ETS;
B. Set out a timeline for expanding the coverage to the rest of the UK economy, as well as sectors consulted on including maritime and waste;
C. Address inclusion of GGRs to incentivise early investment in new technologies and potentially nature-based solutions;
D. Provide reassurance to businesses around how the Government will mitigate the risk of carbon leakage as a result of expanding the ETS.
25R&DBy Autumn 2023, create a roadmap which details decision points for developing and deploying R&D and technologies that are critical for enabling the net zero pathway to 2050.NET ZERO REVIEW: PART 1
Part 1: Net zero is the growth opportunity of the 21st century
The Net Zero Review has travelled to all four nations of the UK, received 1800+ responses to our call for evidence, and held more than 50 roundtables. From this extensive national conversation, seven clear conclusions have emerged.
Net zero is creating a new era of change and opportunityThe UK must act decisively to seize the economic opportunities and smooth the transitionThe benefits of investing in net zero today outweigh the costsUnlocking the ambition of places and communities will deliver the most successful version of net zeroNet zero can materially improve people’s lives – now and in 2050 – but work is needed to secure the benefits and minimise costsNet zero by 2050 remains the right target for the UK: it is backed by the science, widely followed, and is creating real opportunitySignificant additional government action is required to ensure that the UK achieves net zero in the best way possible for the economy and the publicConclusion 1: Net zero is creating a new era of change and opportunity
1.In 2019, the United Kingdom led the world’s major economies in setting a target of net zero emissions by 2050. This single goal contained ambitious transformations for how we generate power, use our land, manufacture our goods, travel, and heat our homes. Net zero also implied a commitment to embracing the opportunities of a new technological era. It did all this, while doing our duty in the face of the great global challenge of our age: the extreme threats to the planet and humanity from greenhouse gas emissions (see ‘The direct risks of climate change to the UK’).
2.Progress since 2019 has exceeded expectations. In setting the net zero target, the UK was building on the progress of many years – not least a quiet transformation of our power system, from one dominated by coal to one increasingly driven by a clean and endless supply of wind blowing across the North Sea. Even still, the changes we have seen since setting net zero, both in the United Kingdom and globally, go far beyond what might have been expected in 2019. Today 91% of the global economy is committed to net zero.11 Renewable energy costs are dropping sharply (see Figure 1). UK offshore wind prices have fallen by 70% since 2014,i12 with offshore, onshore, and solar dropping below the cost of fossil fuels, promising a society in the very near future where the sun and wind meet most of our energy needs.ii13 Society is responding too. When asked about a range of issues, climate change was the second biggest concern facing adults in Great Britain (74%), with the rising cost of living being the main concern (79%).14
Figure 1 ‒ The global cost of onshore wind, offshore wind, solar, and batteries 2010–2022 (Source: BNEF)
3.Net zero is the economic opportunity of the 21st century. The evidence presented to the review has shown that the pace of recent change has created a global rush of economic opportunity perhaps never seen before. From the $370 billion support for clean energy agreed by the United States Senate, to the European Green Deal’s €600 billion green investment – the world is responding to this opportunity. A central question for this Review is how the UK can best position itself in this global marketplace. The opportunity on offer is huge. The global market opportunity for UK businesses from net zero could be worth more than £1 trillion in the period 2021 to 2030.15 If we seize it, we can usher in a new generation of UK businesses, providing high-skilled jobs for our generation and our children. Failure to compete globally risks missing this opportunity, seeing UK industries move away and other countries capturing the economic gains.
4.The UK is in a race to capture the economic benefits of net zero. Other major economies are acting to encourage investment and develop new technology and industries. Most notably, through the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act the USA has committed more than $370 billion to clean energy. Without fast and decisive action, this will see the UK losing opportunities to other countries and failing to position itself as a global partner for trade and collaboration around net zero. The costs of failing to act now are high.
5.Net zero can make household energy bills less exposed to volatile and high fossil fuel prices. The high cost of energy must be at the forefront of decision-making on net zero. The illegal invasion of Ukraine has dramatically changed the short-term landscape, creating new pressure on household bills, and increasing many countries’ ambitions to secure their own national energy supply, including the UK’s. There have been some suggestions that the path to net zero increased household energy costs or the UK’s vulnerability to the kind of dramatic shock seen in Ukraine. The evidence does not support either assertion.
6.Energy costs in a decarbonised UK power system are expected to be lower. Recent analysis shows this is already happening in the EU. In 2022, with wind and solar reducing wholesale prices substantially and increasing the share of renewables to consistently around 40% of total generation,16 the average wholesale electricity price was about 15% below the average of the first half of the year.17 New analysis from the Review also shows clearly that household-level decarbonisation measures in the UK can reduce average bills further. In some instances, policy decisions to slow down some green technologies (e.g. solar or energy efficiency) or delivery failures may have meant opportunities to make bills cheaper have been missed.18 Crucially, decreasing the energy system’s dependence on fossil fuels will also free the UK from feeling the effects of their price volatility. This should help households as well as economic growth by bringing more certainty to individual and business financial planning and investment decisions.
7.Despite the opportunities, real challenges remain. Some of these challenges lie in delivering on UK ambition. The Review has seen persuasive evidence of the UK not matching world-leading ambition with world-leading delivery, with economic opportunities being lost due to a lack of consistent long-term policy or investment. The UK must also be alive to the risks of net zero reducing some sectors’ global competitiveness in the short-term, even as it seizes the many opportunities for global leadership in others. Finally, for all the persuasive evidence that net zero will be a net benefit to UK households, bring cheaper bills, new jobs and cleaner air, there are genuine issues around affordability, accessibility and fairness that require a strong response.
8.The danger that climate change poses cannot be ignored. The Review was tasked with assessing how to deliver net zero in a pro-growth manner. The evidence of the scale of the opportunity is striking. However, this assessment must be made in the context of the global response to climate change – probably the largest single threat to humanity. We know that the world is still not moving fast enough to decarbonise. Accounting for the implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) up until 2030, the best estimate of peak temperature by the end of the century is in the range of 2.1°C to 2.9°C19 – bringing with it terrible threats to our species. For the UK the challenge lies in delivering on the ambitious targets it has set, and in continuing to show leadership on the world stage.
9.Decarbonising can be good for households and the economy. This Review brought together perhaps the largest collection of evidence and perspectives on net zero ever presented to the Government. We received over 1800 submissions to the Review’s call for evidence from the public, business, charities, and academics. The Chair, Chris Skidmore MP, has led more than 50 roundtables, talking to over one thousand people. This included travelling to all four nations of the UK to hear how the challenges and opportunities of the transition differ across the country. This report draws extensively on this evidence, seeking to provide an accurate and balanced summary of the views expressed. Its conclusions are strengthened by new analysis completed for the Review, including new modelling of the impact of today’s higher fossil fuel prices on how the UK reaches net zero and distributional analysis modelling of the impact of net zero policies on UK households. The evidence has led the Review to make recommendations, covering the economy, the power system, research, and the needs of individuals and communities. But most importantly, the evidence has pointed to one overwhelming conclusion:
10.An unstoppable and essential drive to decarbonise is re-shaping the global economy, bringing a new era of opportunity. The UK has a golden chance to grasp this opportunity – but it requires serious and renewed commitment, more than justified by the prize on offer and the cost of missing out.
i With the offshore wind Contracts for Difference 4 2022 strike price of 37.35 £/MWh and 2014 CfD 1 strike price of £115–120/MWh.
ii On Wednesday 2nd November 2022, over 70% of the GB electricity grid was powered by low carbon sources, with wind alone providing more than half of Britain’s power.
Conclusion 2: The UK must act decisively to seize the economic opportunities and smooth the transition
11.Net zero will drive widespread changes to the global economy. Almost every sector will be affected, whether directly or because of wider changes around them. In many cases this will create new economic activity – in some it will lead to sectors declining or stopping altogether. We can expect changes to:
How we heat our homes and buildings – and the attention paid to making them more energy efficient, e.g. through better insulation. This will involve retrofitting the current stock and changing how we construct new buildings.How we generate electricity, with a massive increase in the use of renewable energy technologies like wind and solar – as well as upgrades to our grid and a much greater emphasis on storing energy using batteries and other technology.How we travel – with the growing popularity of clean versions of the vehicles we currently use (e.g. electric vehicles, electric trains), alongside new lower carbon fuels for planes. In many countries, we can expect people to be encouraged to cycle and walk more.How we produce food – improving the sustainability of farming practices and helping to sequester carbon by improving the soil management and biodiversity of farmland. In some countries, including the UK, we are seeing a decline in demand for some of the foods that need the most carbon to produce – such as red meat20 – and there is potential for lab-grown alternatives.How we use land – with many countries, including the UK, setting huge targets for tree planting, halting and reversing deforestation, and other ways to use the natural environment to absorb carbon dioxide. This will include key commodities moving towards sustainable and deforestation-free supply chains.Consumer behaviours – growing public desire to help reduce emissions, including in the UK, means new demand for products that are seen as green. At the same time, we can expect businesses to feel more pressure from their customers, boards, and shareholders to reduce their own emissions.New manufacturing and materials – the new technologies (e.g. wind turbines or batteries) will need to be built, often requiring highly-technical skilled workforces. The raw materials for these are often different to those needed for current mainstream technologies – creating new demand for mining and processing. We can also expect greater interest in reusing and recycling as part of a drive towards an economy that wastes less.New services – we can expect new demand for expertise in using and manufacturing these technologies, in environmental law, in green financial reporting, in sustainable investment, and elsewhere.New skills and education – these new activities will require workers to learn new skills, changing the focus of both technical and academic education.And many changes we cannot predict today. Any predictions for 2050 will inevitably miss the emergence of major new technologies, economic activity, and social changes. Either as the primary driver or as a secondary influence, we can be certain that growing activity to decarbonise and the impacts of climate change will lead to widespread and unexpected changes to the economy.12.The opportunities these changes will bring are global and vast. The global market opportunity for UK businesses from net zero could be worth more than £1 trillion (in total cumulative revenue) in the period 2021 to 2030.21 By 2030 global exports for low-carbon goods and services could be worth £1 trillion–£1.8 trillion a year, seven to twelve times more than today.22 Global spending on electric vehicles (EVs) and charging infrastructure surged by 77% to $273 billion in 2021.23 Some estimates suggest net zero could generate an additional £330 billion in extra economic activity every year by 2030.24 For the UK, government estimates that the net zero transition could generate up to £100 billion of private investment and support up to 480,000 jobs by 2030.25 Ecuity analysis estimates that renewable and low-carbon technologies could support 1.38 million jobs by 2050, with around 600,000 of these materialising in this decade thanks to home retrofits and energy efficiency installations in buildings.26
13.
