Models for financing, cost and risk assessment E-Book
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- Herausgeber: Wiley-VCH
- Kategorie: Wissenschaft und neue Technologien
- Sprache: Englisch
In dem Buch fassen Projektverantwortliche ihre Erfahrungen aus großen Eisenbahninfrastrukturprojekten in Europa zusammen. Neben der Erklärung der wichtigsten Rahmenbedingungen für den Bau großer Infrastrukturprojekte geben Sie einen Überblick über die verschiedenen Methoden zur Finanzierung, zum Kosten- und Risikomanagement sowie zur Prüfung und Kontrolle von Tunnelprojekten in verschiedenen Ländern. Das Buch richtet sich sowohl an Verantwortliche für große Infrastrukturprojekte als auch an Entscheidungsträger, Finanzierungsbeteiligte, Projektingenieure und Projektmanager sowie an Organisationen, die für zukünftige Projekte in Politik und Management verantwortlich sind.
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Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2021
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Table of Contents
Cover
Title Page
Copyright
Preface
1 Austria
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Concept
1.3 Financing
1.4 Cost Calculation
1.5 Cost Coefficients for Risks Corresponding to the Value of the ÖGG-Guideline 2005
1.6 Control
1.7 Change Management
1.8 Cost Coefficients for Risks Corresponding to the Value of the ÖGG-Guideline 2016
Abbreviations
References
2 Germany
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Plan for Maintaining and Expanding Rail Infrastructure
2.3 The 2030 Federal Transport Infrastructure Plan
2.4 Financing
2.5 Costs
2.6 Risk Management
Abbreviations
Further Reading
Note
3 Norway
3.1 Concept, Background, and a Description of the Follo Line Project
3.2 Finance
3.3 Cost
3.4 Project Schedule
3.5 Risk Management
3.6 Controlling
3.7 Trend and Change Control for the Project
Abbreviations
Further Reading
4 Slovenia
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Responsibilities
4.3 Planning Background
4.4 Development Goals
4.5 Financing Sources
4.6 Cost Estimates
4.7 Risk Management
4.8 Controlling and Reporting
4.9 Project Second Track Divača–Koper
Abbreviations
5 Switzerland
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Responsibilities
5.3 Financing by the FinöV Fund (1998–2015)
5.4 Financing by BIF (from 2016)
5.5 Risks
5.6 Costs
Abbreviations
Further Reading
6 Brenner Base Tunnel: Transnational Project between Austria and Italy
6.1 Brenner Base Tunnel Project
6.2 Approval Phase and Financing
6.3 Cost Models
6.4 Cost Calculation and Risk Provision for the BBT
Abbreviations
References
7 Lyon–Turin: Transnational Project between Italy and France
7.1 Concept
7.2 Costs
7.3 Risk Provision
7.4 Control
7.5 Variation Procedures
Abbreviations
Further Reading
8 Conclusion: Essential Elements of Cost and Risk Management
Past and Present Participants
End User License Agreement
List of Tables
Chapter 1
Table 1.1 Percentages for
u
E
(corresponds to the value of the ÖGG-Guideline 2005...
Table 1.2 Percentages for
(corresponds to the value of the ÖGG-Guideline 2005 ...
Table 1.3 Percentages for
(corresponds to the value of the ÖGG-Guideline 2005 ...
Table 1.4 Project phases/cost establishment, date, risk assessment, cost stabil...
Table 1.5 Calculation of the extra amount of risk provision for different proje...
Chapter 2
Table 2.1 Key infrastructure assets for a major railway engineering project (ex...
Table 2.2 Risk categories for the Infrastructure Board Division at DB ©DB.
Chapter 3
Table 3.1 Probability scale.
Table 3.2 Criticality scale for the Follo Line project.
Chapter 4
Table 4.1 Example of typifying karst phenomena.
Table 4.2 Probability of occurrence of karst phenomena in tunnel T1 along the t...
Table 4.3 Summary of risks with examples, where specific contingency is propose...
Table 4.4 Cost estimate overview (reference period: December 2017).
Table 4.5 Critical variables identified and respective sensitivity.
Table 4.6 Switching values.
Table 4.7 Results of the scenario analysis.
Table 4.8 Main results of the Monte Carlo simulation.
Table 4.9 Probability of occurrence considered in the qualitative analysis.
Table 4.10 Intensity of impact considered in the qualitative risk analysis.
Table 4.11 Risk-level matrix.
Table 4.12 Risks primarily classified as very high and high, their respective m...
Chapter 5
Table 5.1 Example of the annual flow of funds to the FinöV Fund 2007–2011.
Table 5.2 Risk categories.
Table 5.3 Project phases.
Table 5.4 Cost types.
Chapter 6
Table 6.1 Cost update per 1 January 2017 without further price increase or mone...
Table 6.2 Various risks and opportunities.
Chapter 7
Table 7.1 Cost update per 8 March 2016 without further price increase or moneta...
List of Illustrations
Chapter 1
Figure 1.1 Schematic of the cost establishment.
Figure 1.2 Project cost control in project management.
Figure 1.3 Annual and current project cost control loop.
Figure 1.4 Calculation of the extra amount for risk provision (ÖGG Directive...
Chapter 2
Figure 2.1 Structural maintenance and new construction in the Federal Transp...
Figure 2.2 Strategic upgrade measures in 2030 FTIP.
Figure 2.3 Planned investment in 2030 FTIP.
Figure 2.4 Supporting projects and planning with the BUV, HOAI phases 1 and ...
Figure 2.5 Supporting projects and planning with the BUV, HOAI phases 3–9.
Figure 2.6 Example of the financing of a major project in accordance with th...
Figure 2.7 Planned increase of investments in new construction, upgrades, an...
Figure 2.8 Cash flow scheme for rail infrastructure investments.
Figure 2.9 Idealised project cost development.
Figure 2.10 Change in approach from the actual project budget to presumed fi...
Figure 2.11 Determining the forecast final cost using the reference risk cat...
Figure 2.12 Example comparison of the ‘bottom-up’ total project cost forecas...
Figure 2.13 General process for calculating the total project cost forecast ...
Figure 2.14 Typical development of costs when applying the reference risk ca...
Figure 2.15 Risk management process at company level ©DB.
Figure 2.16 The risk management system at company level.
Figure 2.17 Risk management process at project level in accordance with ISO ...
Figure 2.18 The project risk management system at DB Netz AG.
Chapter 3
Figure 3.1 Development of the InterCity railway network in the Oslo area.
Figure 3.2 Capacity utilisation, measured in percentage, of the InterCity ra...
Figure 3.3 The 22 km long Follo Line between Oslo Central Station and Ski St...
Figure 3.4 The rig area on the surface and the network of access- and logist...
Figure 3.5 Original contract strategy for the main contracts for the constru...
Figure 3.6 Approval process based on the two external reviews, QA1 and QA2....
Figure 3.7 Concept of uncertainty – the structure of the cost estimate.
Figure 3.8 Tornado diagram reflecting the uncertainty and opportunities.
Figure 3.9 S-curve – accumulated.
Figure 3.10 Benchmarking – the overall project investment per metre of track...
Figure 3.11 Risk management process.
Figure 3.12 5 × 5 risk matrix showing both opportunities and threats.
Figure 3.13 Work breakdown structure (WBS) for the project.
Figure 3.14 Project phases of the Follo Line project.
ITT
=
invitation to te
...
Figure 3.15 Trend and change control for the project.
Chapter 4
Figure 4.1 Slovenian rail network (double line – double track, black – singl...
Figure 4.2 Risk assessment and risk management.
Figure 4.3 Location of the project.
Figure 4.4 Main elements and characteristics.
Figure 4.5 Tunnel cross sections.
Figure 4.6 Events classified by risk level – (a) before and (b) after mitiga...
Chapter 5
Figure 5.1 The NRLA with the Lötschberg axis (Lötschberg base tunnel) and th...
Figure 5.2 The principal, constructor, and operating companies' model. The r...
Figure 5.3 Origin of funds, as per FinöV fund.
Figure 5.4 Principal scheme of inflation control.
Figure 5.5 Origin of funds, as per BIF.
Figure 5.6 Presumed end costs and risk potentials (CHF) of the Gotthard axis...
Figure 5.7 Flowchart of performance changes.
Chapter 6
Figure 6.1 Project overview.
Figure 6.2 Tunnel system.
Figure 6.3 Beta distribution of the monetary or time-related impact of risks...
Figure 6.4 Risk assessment.
Figure 6.5 Flowchart of the risk analysis.
Figure 6.6 Distribution density.
Figure 6.7 Cumulative function for risk distribution.
Chapter 7
Figure 7.1 Lyon–Turin.
Figure 7.2 Cross-border section.
Chapter 8
Figure 8.1 Cost share, price increase, and risk parts depending on the proje...
Guide
Cover Page
Title Page
Copyright
Preface
Table of Contents
Begin Reading
Past and Present Participants
WILEY END USER LICENSE AGREEMENT
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Models for financing, cost, and risk assessment
Major railway tunnel projects in Europe
Edited by Konrad Bergmeister
Editor
Konrad Bergmeister
Cover
Keystone/Urs Flüeler - Owner Heinz
Ehrbar
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Print ISBN: 978-3-433-03314-2
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Preface
The group of ‘Long tunnel project directors’ has drawn up a report on topics concerning financing, costs, timing, and risks, including the controlling and auditing of large railway infrastructure projects in Europe.
On the initiative of the Alptransit Gotthard, namely Peter Zuber (1939 – 2011), of the Lötschberg axis, namely Franz Kilchenmann and of the transnational Alpetunnel GEIE now Lyon–Turin, namely Jean Brulard, the group ‘Project Manager of the Long Railway Alpine Tunnels’ was set up in 1993. From 1999 until 2010 was Peter Teuscher and from 2011 on Konrad Bergmeister the Chairman of the group; as a secretary served the past 20 years Hans-Peter Vetsch and from 2018 on also David Unteregger. The aim was to exchange experiences on similar or identical projects, such as operation, maintenance, safety, costs, and construction technology. Later, the persons responsible for the base tunnel projects at Semmering, Brenner, and Lötschberg as well as those responsible for the Channel Tunnel were included in the group. The formation of this group and the valuable exchange of experience have led to cost-effective, cross-border solutions.
The group has been meeting about twice a year for over 25 years to exchange information and experience. During these meetings, the need to document these issues from the point of view of the countries participating became clear. The aim was to explain the most important framework conditions in building large infrastructure projects and to pass on the knowledge obtained for future projects, so that interested readers can have an overview of the various methods used for funding, cost and risk management, and for auditing and controlling tunnel projects in the various countries.
The individual topics were illustrated, using specific terminology that varies from one project to another, for the following large railway infrastructure projects in the different European states.
Austria
Large projects to expand railway stations and stretches, including the Semmering, Koralm, and Brenner Base Tunnels
Germany
Large railway projects, including Stuttgart 21, Wendlingen–Ulm, VDE 8 (Berlin–Nuremberg)
Norway
Large railway projects, with a special focus on the Follo Line Oslo–Ski project
Slovenia
Railway projects with a special focus on the Divača–Koper line
Switzerland
Funding and expansion of rail infrastructure, with special focus on the Lötschberg, Gotthard, and Ceneri Base Tunnels
The level of knowledge on the individual topics varies from country to country, and they are therefore not described equally. What is uniformly clear is that public funding for large railway projects must be guaranteed, at the latest, before tendering the main works and up to the end of the project. The funds must be made available according to the progress of the works and in a timely manner.
Cross-border projects require a special level of attention and higher risk coverage because of their complexity. Special focus is paid to the BBT and the TELT.
BBT
Brenner Base Tunnel – cross-border project between Austria and Italy
TELT
Tunnel Euralpin Lyon–Turin – cross-border project between France and Italy
Also, for a long period, representatives from the Channel Tunnel linking Folkestone, Kent (UK), and Coquelles, Pas-de-Calais (France), and recently from the Fehmarnbelt Tunnel linking the Danish island of Lolland with the German island of Fehmarn participated actively in the meetings.
Cost and risk management requires structured and systematic procedures starting with the earliest project phases. Identifiable risks, looking forward to a certain project date, must be quantified and covered by financing. Also, financial provision must be made for as yet unknown and unforeseen influences. Timing, costing, and risks must be updated regularly (at least once a year), and the pertinent project requirements must also be adjusted and taken into consideration in the financing.
Besides the audits of timing, costing, risks, and activities, reporting is another fundamentally important aspect of large projects. The parties responsible for the project must inform the entire project team, at every level, of the timings, costing, risks, and activities, implement trust-building measures, and actively contribute during the entire construction of the project.
This document, taken into account the information available until June 2019, is meant both for parties responsible for large infrastructure projects and for decision makers, financing stakeholders, project engineers, and project managers as well as for organisations responsible for future projects both in politics and in management.
People involved in tunnelling underpass mountains and overcome barriers, connect cultures/languages, shape countries and bring continents together!
Vienna, July 2021
Konrad Bergmeister, Chairman
1Austria
1.1 Introduction
In Austria, with the modernisation and expansion of the rail infrastructure network since around 1990, a structured cost and risk management has been carried out. This has taken account of the fact that with large transport infrastructure projects, due to the complexity, the long implementation period, and the multitude of project participants at the time of the project start, the project content is not fully known. The level of knowledge regarding the total content is developed only in the course of the project preparation, approval procedures, and detailed planning. The cost of such projects can also be quantified sufficiently only as the project develops. Nevertheless, to create and maintain a stable cost framework, the degree of uncertainty is taken into consideration by appropriate risk provisions.
These risk provisions have been classified as unknown (U) during the planning phase, since only part of them can be quantified by means of appropriate risk analyses. The establishment of the risk provisions for unknown elements is carried out on the basis of all previous project experience with the help of specific reference values, which take into account the respective project framework conditions.
The requirements for standardised project and cost management, as well as control and reporting, were originally established within Eisenbahn Hochleistungstrecken AG (HL AG) and later further developed within ÖBB Infra AG. For train station projects – such as the new Vienna Central Station and the projects of the Brenner base tunnel (50% owner), the Koralm Railway, and the Semmering base tunnel – the cost and risk management methods presented below will be used.
On the basis of the accumulated experience, a first guideline for the cost and risk determination for transportation infrastructure projects was carried out by the Austrian Society for Geomechanics (ÖGG) in 2005 [1] and the latest version was published in 2016 [2]. This chapter describes how costs, cost control, and risks have been managed within the Austrian Railway company ÖBB and how they are currently approached in Austria.
Sections 1.2–1.7 were written by Dr. Georg Vavrovsky (1.08.1950–16.02.2020) and Dr. Hubert Hager with respect to the ÖGG-Guideline 2006. Section 1.8 was written by Prof. Konrad Bergmeister with respect to the ÖGG-Guideline 2016.
The mentioned ÖBB manuals [3, 5, 9] have been actualized in the meantime and some of their contents have been adapted; although the essential basic statements still apply.
1.2 Concept
ÖBB-Infrastruktur AG implements new and expansion projects for the modernisation and improvement of the rail network in Austria. The expansion investments are focused on route development and expansion along the main transport axes, such as the four-track expansion of the Westbahn and Südbahn railway lines, the Koralm Railway, and the Lower Inn Valley Railway, on the modernisation of the railway stations, on local transport projects in the metropolitan areas, and on freight terminals. With regard to content and expression, these projects include a wide range of rail transport projects, with a project portfolio of around 200 projects. In the past few years, the volume of investments has amounted to approximately €1.0–1.3 billion per year. In addition, extensive measures for the modernisation of the control and safety technology (global system for mobile communications – railway [GSM-R], European train control system [ETCS] L2, etc.) as well as for the renewal (reinvestment) of the rail network have been carried out.
The business process of handling investment projects in ÖBB-Infrastruktur AG stipulates that from the start of the planning phase through to handover to the operator, the project responsibility lies with specialised business areas of ÖBB-Infrastruktur AG.
The project responsibility for the planning and/or construction phase is determined on a case-by-case basis with a separate project order of the entire Board of ÖBB-Infrastruktur AG (project client or ÖBB-internal customer) and the project objectives and the time and cost tangents are determined accordingly. With the project order, the business area thus charged (project contractor or constructor) carries full responsibility for the operative building owner tasks, including all the duties of the project management.
1.3 Financing
The basis for the financing of ÖBB-Infrastruktur AG is § 47 of the Federal Railways Act (BBG), whereby the federal government must ensure that ÖBB-Infrastruktur AG has sufficient means available to perform its tasks and to maintain its liquidity and its own capital resources, to the extent of conducting the duties of the business plan in accordance with § 42 paragraph 6 of the BBG. This legally regulated commitment from the federal government is specifically implemented in the grant contracts in accordance with § 42 of the BBG.
In accordance with § 42 paragraph 2 of the BBG, the federal government provides grants for the planning, construction, and maintenance of the rail infrastructure. The grant contract to be agreed between the federal government and ÖBB is based on the business plan that is to be produced by ÖBB-Infrastruktur AG. Part of the business plan is the six-year framework plan to be drawn up by ÖBB-Infrastruktur AG, which includes the funds both for the expansion investments (new installation and development) and for maintenance (particularly repair and reinvestment).
The framework plan includes all expansion investments based on project progress. In the preparation of the framework plan, the strategic planning determinations (goal network 2025+) established by the Austrian federal government as a basis for the infrastructure investment must be taken into consideration. The framework plan must be supplemented each year by one further year and adapted with regard to the current project schedule for the new six-year period.
The framework plan must include all the decision-relevant information for the company, in particular:
a detailed description of the projects, capacity analyses, and forecasts of the expected traffic growth
a schedule with project-related planning and building progress
a current cost estimation, a cost–benefit analysis, and an operating programme
a description of the achievable quality of the rail infrastructure of the project.
The basis for the entitlement to federal subsidies is the approval of the annual framework plan by the Austrian federal government as well as the grant contract, which has been concluded and which is extended on a yearly basis.
According to the current grant contract, the share for expansion investments and reinvestments that is to be borne by the federal government (without the Brenner base tunnel) is 75% of the annual capital expenditure, for which, taking into account the average useful life, grants in the form of a 30-year annuity subsidy are provided. For the construction of the Brenner base tunnel, the federal government is responsible for 100% of the annual capital expenditure, for which grants in the form of a 50-year annuity subsidy are paid out. The cost contributions, Trans-European-Network (TEN) funds, cross-financing as applicable and, in individual cases, also real estate sales (e.g. for the main station in Vienna) will be deducted from the financing. In accordance with the grant contract, the federal government and ÖBB-Infrastruktur AG must ensure that long-term projects that go beyond the current framework plan period are also included in the following framework plans with the corresponding financial tranches.
The federal government has its long-term obligations arising from the approved framework plans up to the complete funding of investment projects secured in the form of preliminary approval for these financial obligations, prior to the budget. On the basis of the existing grant contract with the federal government, in accordance with the current financial requirements, ÖBB-Infrastruktur AG issues long-term investment bonds to finance ongoing projects.
1.4 Cost Calculation
1.4.1 Basic Principles of Cost Calculation
As well as high investment values, railway transport infrastructure projects usually involve high risks and involve particularly long-term project processing. The identification and presentation of the project costs must take into account these circumstances with an appropriate system on which to base the project cost control for accurate analyses and targeted control measures.
Within the framework of cost calculation, future developments and costs must be estimated based on the respective level of knowledge. In this context, the monetary valuation of the services to be provided, the development of price changes, and the project risks must be established with the involvement of the relevant project parameters, influencing variables and framework conditions.
Each project is caught between quality, cost, and time targets. The key features of this target triangle are defined by planning, and are used by the project processing as a reference for the monitoring and control measures. Cost assessments show the cost status of projects or parts of projects at regular intervals or after completion of certain phases. They accompany all project phases and form the basis for cost control and cost management. As the project progresses, the degree of detail of a cost assessment and its significance for cost stability increases.
The identification and presentation of the costs for expansion investments (new and expansion projects) of ÖBB-Infrastruktur AG are carried out in accordance with the ‘ÖBB-Infrastruktur AG Cost Assessment Manual’ [3].
This manual covers the basic structures needed for the systematic representation of project costs with a particular focus on project risks based on the ‘Calculation of costs for transport infrastructure projects’ [1] in the ÖGG guideline. It also refers to the RVS data sheet 02.01.14 ‘Determination of project costs for infrastructure projects’ [4] in terms of cost classification. The scope of this data sheet covers the determination of project costs from the start of planning to the completion of the infrastructure projects, and, in particular, regulates the concepts of project costs for transport infrastructure projects. The main features of the cost classification of the specified rules and regulations are coordinated with each other.
The following shows the cost assessment system applied to new and expansion projects of ÖBB-Infrastruktur AG with reference to these rules and regulations.
The new guideline [2]: Calculation of costs for transport infrastructure while taking into consideration relevant project risks (2016) takes into account accumulated experience from the construction of major rail infrastructural projects and long tunnels (e.g. Lower Valley of the Inn [42 km], with Münsterer Tunnel [16 km], Terfner Tunnel [15.8 km], Wienerwald Tunnel [13.3 km], and Lainzer Tunnel [9.4 km]) of costs and risk management.
1.4.2 Cost Assessment System
From the perspective of project development, costs are defined as a monetarily valued use of services, supplies, and goods for project implementation. The project costs include the costs required to achieve the project objectives, such as costs for project management, planning, construction, project-related procedure costs, site supervision, construction site clearing, land acquisition, control, accounting, project information management, expert testimonials or fees for project implementation (regardless of whether they are provided internally or externally from the perspective of the project management), and the cost estimates for risks and development-related costs.
Strictly speaking, project costs do not include financing costs. Provided they also include financing costs, these should be shown explicitly.
Project costs can be specified with or without sales tax. When taking into account the sales tax, this should be shown explicitly.
The revenue allocated to the project phase, such as cost contributions, grants, subsidies or proceeds from material sales, should be shown separately (un-offset) from the project costs. This does not reduce the costs of the project.
With regard to the progress of an individual project, the following basic rule applies:
The actual costs represent costs booked to the project (cost bearer) up to a certain date; the forecast costs include the estimated future costs from a certain date. The planned costs are calculated as the sum of actual and forecast costs. This structure applies for the entire duration of the project processing.
The planned costs are divided into the following cost components:
The project costs are the sum of the planned costs for all the project parts of a project. When listing project costs, the included cost components (e.g. BGR or BGRV) must be specified.
The planned costs generally have a spread width. With cost assessments for new and expansion projects, the median value must be stated. This is the value that has the same probability in terms of a cost overrun or underrun.
1.4.2.1 Basic Costs
Basic costs are the planned costs at a defined price basis with the defined acceptance of known project content, project deadlines, and the market situation. They form the foundation for any cost assessment and will serve as the basis for the application of cost coefficients for value adjustment and adaptation, risks, and preliminary adjustment for inflation.
Basic costs are based on an assessment of the price level on the construction market for a defined point in time. They are determined and represented separately for the individual parts of a project. As long as no service agreement has been signed to build a part of the project, this part of the project is known as a supply area. Upon commissioning the execution, the establishment of the part of the project is contractually fixed, and a purchase order or contract is provided.
Establishing the Basic Costs of Parts of a Project Prior to Conclusion of the Contract
