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- Sprache: Englisch
The 4Ds of Energy Transition
Enables readers to understand technology-driven approaches that address the challenges of today’s energy scenario and the shift towards sustainable energy transition
This book provides a comprehensive account of the characteristics of energy transition, covering the latest advancements, trends, and practices around the topic. It charts the path to global energy sustainability based on existing technology by focusing on the four dynamic approaches of decarbonization, decreasing use, decentralization, and digitalization, plus the important technical, economic, social and policy perspectives surrounding those approaches.
Each technology is demonstrated with an introduction and a set of specific chapters. The work appropriately incorporates up-to-date data, case studies, and comparative assessments to further aid in reader comprehension. Sample topics discussed within the work by key thinkers and researchers in the broader fields of energy include:
- Renewable energy and sustainable energy future
- Decarbonization in energy sector
- Hydrogen and fuel cells
- Electric mobility and sustainable transportation
- Energy conservation and management
- Distributed and off-grid generation, energy storage, and batteries
- Digitalization in energy sector; smart meters, smart grids, blockchain
This book is an ideal professional resource for engineers, academics, and policy makers working in areas related to the development of energy solutions.
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Table of Contents
Cover
Title Page
Copyright
Preface
Acknowledgement
Foreword
1 Introduction to the Four‐Dimensional Energy Transition
1.1 Energy: Resources and Conversions
1.2 Climate Change in Focus
1.3 The Unfolding Energy Transition
1.4 The Four Dimensions of the Twenty‐First Century Energy Transition
1.5 Conclusions
References
Part I Decarbonization
2 Global Energy Transition and Experiences from China and Germany
2.1 Global Energy Transition
2.2 China
2.3 Germany
2.4 Comparing Energy Transitions in China and Germany
2.5 Summary and Final Remarks
References
3 Decarbonization in the Energy Sector
3.1 Decarbonization
3.2 Decarbonization Pathways
3.3 Decarbonization: Developments and Trends
References
4 Renewable Technologies: Applications and Trends
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Overview of Renewable Technologies
4.3 Renewables Advancements and Trends
4.4 Conclusions
References
5 Fundamentals and Applications of Hydrogen and Fuel Cells
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Hydrogen – General
5.3 Basic Electrochemistry and Thermodynamics
5.4 Fuel Cells – Overview
5.5 Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Nomenclature
Abbreviations
References
6 Decarbonizing with Nuclear Power, Current Builds, and Future Trends
6.1 Introduction
6.2 The Historic Cost of Nuclear Power
6.3 The Small Modular Reactor (SMR): Could Smaller Be Better?
6.4 Evaluating the Economic Competitiveness of SMRs
6.5 Nuclear Energy: Looking Beyond Its Perceived Reputation
6.6 Western Nuclear Industry Trends
6.7 Conclusions
References
7 Decarbonization of the Fossil Fuel Sector
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Technologies for the Decarbonization of the Fossil Fuel Sector
7.3 Recent Advancements and Potential
7.4 Future Emission Scenarios and Challenges to Decarbonization
7.5 Controversies and Debates
7.6 Conclusions
References
8 Electric Vehicle Adoption Dynamics on the Road to Deep Decarbonization
8.1 Introduction
8.2 Current State of Electric Vehicles
8.3 Contribution of Road Transport to Decarbonization Policy
8.4 Dynamics of Vehicle Fleet Turnover
8.5 Electric Vehicle Policy
8.6 Prospects for Electric Vehicle Technology and Economics
8.7 Conclusions
References
Notes
9 Integrated Energy System: A Low‐Carbon Future Enabler
9.1 Paradigm Shift in Energy Systems
9.2 Key Technologies in Integrated Energy Systems
9.3 Management of Integrated Energy Systems
9.4 Volt–Pressure Optimization for Integrated Energy Systems
9.5 Conclusions
A Appendix: Nomenclature
References
Part II Decreasing Use
10 Decreasing the Use of Energy for Sustainable Energy Transition
10.1 Why Decrease the Use of Energy?
10.2 Energy Efficiency Approaches
10.3 Scope of Energy Efficiency
References
11 Energy Conservation and Management in Buildings
11.1 Energy and Environmental Footprint of Buildings
11.2 Energy‐Efficiency Potential in Buildings
11.3 Energy‐Efficient Design Strategies
11.4 Building Energy Retrofit
11.5 Sustainable Building Standards and Certification Systems
11.6 Conclusions
References
12 Methodologies for the Analysis of Energy Consumption in the Industrial Sector
12.1 Introduction
12.2 Overview of Basic Indexes for Energy Consumption Analysis
12.3 Decomposition Analysis of Energy Consumption
12.4 Case Study: The Italian Industrial Sector
12.5 Relationship Between Energy Efficiency and Energy Transition
12.6 Conclusions
References
Part III Decentralization
13 Decentralization in Energy Sector
13.1 Introduction
13.2 Overview of Decentralized Generation Systems
13.3 Decentralized and Centralized Generation – A Comparison
13.4 Developments and Trends
References
14 Decentralizing the Electricity Infrastructure: What Is Economically Viable?
14.1 Introduction
14.2 Decentralization of Electricity Systems
14.3 Technological Dimensions of Decentralization
14.4 Decentralization: Costs and Benefits
14.5 Germany's Decentralization Experience: A Case Study
14.6 How Far Should Decentralization Go?
14.7 Conclusions
References
15 Governing Decentralized Electricity: Taking a Participatory Turn
15.1 Introduction
15.2 How Is Decentralization Affecting Traditional Modes of Electricity Governance?
15.3 What Kinds of Governance Does Decentralization Require?
15.4 What Do We Know About Decentralized Governance from Other Spheres?
15.5 Moving Toward a Decentralized Governance System
15.6 Conclusions
References
Part IV Digitalization
16 Digitalization in Energy Sector
16.1 Introduction
16.2 Overview of Digital Technologies
16.3 Digitalization: Prospects and Challenges
References
17 Smart Grids and Smart Metering
17.1 Introduction
17.2 Grid Modernization and Its Need in the Twenty‐First Century
17.3 Smart Grid
17.4 Smart Grid vs. Traditional Grid
17.5 Smart Grid Composition and Architecture
17.6 Smart Grid Technologies
17.7 Smart Metering
17.8 Role of Smart Metering in Smart Grid
17.9 Key Challenges and the Future of Smart Grid
17.10 Implementation Benefits and Positive Impacts
17.11 Worldwide Development and Deployment
17.12 Conclusions
References
18 Blockchain in Energy
18.1 Transformation of the Electricity Market and an Emerging Technology
18.2 Blockchain in the Energy Sector
18.3 Blockchain as a (Disruptive) Innovation in Energy Transitions
18.4 Conclusions and Venues for Further Inquiry
Acknowledgment
References
Epilogue
References
Index
End User License Agreement
List of Tables
Chapter 2
Table 2.1 Global primary energy consumption in 2019 compared with 2018 [3]....
Table 2.2 Global indicators from 2018–2020 (www.oecd.org/economic-outlook; ...
Table 2.3 Targets within China's energy revolution targets.
Table 2.4 Specific sector targets after the amendment of the Climate Change...
Table 2.5 Climate action targets in May 2021
a)
(https://www.bundesregierung...
Table 2.6 Car subsidies in Germany (February 2021) [20].
Table 2.7 Comparison of targets, achievements, and strategies for China and...
Chapter 5
Table 5.1 Specific energy and energy density for some common fuels.
Table 5.2 Common fuel cell types and some characteristic data.
Chapter 6
Table 6.1 Summary of the US cost trends [7].
Table 6.2 The comparisons of TCIC based on the three construction strategie...
Table 6.3 The assessment of the impact from modularization between SMR and ...
Table 6.4 Learning rates for nuclear, the bottom‐up analysis [56].
Table 6.5 Author's work on the summary of comparisons between the nuclear n...
Chapter 8
Table 8.1 Decarbonization pathways for the passenger vehicle fleet.
Chapter 9
Table 9.1 Case illustration.
Table 9.2 Parameters of natural gas sources.
Table 9.3 Generator parameters.
Table 9.4 Economic performance for cases 1–6.
Chapter 13
Table 13.1 Overview of DG technologies.
Chapter 14
Table 14.1 Centralized and decentralized techno‐economic dimensions of an e...
Table 14.2 Centralized and decentralized connectivity of power plants.
Table 14.3 Centralized and decentralized regional distribution of power pla...
Table 14.4 Centralized and decentralized connectivity of flexibility option...
Table 14.5 Centralized and decentralized optimization.
Chapter 17
Table 17.1 Smart grid vs. traditional grid [4,30–33].
Table 17.2 Description of NIST smart grid model [35].
Chapter 18
Table 18.1 Public vs. private blockchain.
Table 18.2 Energy blockchain case examples.
List of Illustrations
Chapter 1
Figure 1.1 Primary and secondary energy resources.
Figure 1.2 Energy resources and transformations.
Chapter 2
Figure 2.1 Renewable energy share in global total final energy consumption (...
Figure 2.2 Primary energy consumption shares in Germany (2019).
Figure 2.3 Electric and plug‐in hybrid electric vehicle sales [21].
Chapter 3
Figure 3.1 Share of fuels in the global energy mix.
Figure 3.2 Comparison of CO
2
emissions from different power generation syste...
Chapter 4
Figure 4.1 Classification of PV cells by material type.
Figure 4.2 Classification of PV systems.
Figure 4.3 Rooftop PV system.
Figure 4.4 Offshore wind power..
Figure 4.5 Dam‐based hydropower project.
Figure 4.6 Crops for bioenergy.
Figure 4.7 Ground source heat pump in residential application.
Figure 4.8 Wave power system.
Figure 4.9 Growth in solar PV sector between 2010 and 2020.
Figure 4.10 Growth in wind power between 2010 and 2020.
Figure 4.11 Advancement in the PV technology.
Figure 4.12 Growth in size and capacity of wind turbines.
Figure 4.13 Floating PV system.
Chapter 5
Figure 5.1 Principle sketch of a PEM fuel cell.
Figure 5.2 Unit cell of a fuel cell.
Figure 5.4 Cell voltage vs. current density for an SOFC. Operating temperatu...
Figure 5.3 Cell voltage vs. current density for a PEMFC. Operating temperatu...
Figure 5.5 Illustration of the occurrence of the heat transfer mechanisms in...
Figure 5.6 Approximative ranges for the characteristic time and length scale...
Figure 5.7 Conjectured layout of the internal structure of an FCEV and its m...
Chapter 6
Figure 6.1 Cost structure of nuclear electricity generation. *The cost of na...
Figure 6.2 OCCs pre‐TMI (a) vs. post‐TMI (b).
Figure 6.3 OCC of global nuclear reactor in US$ 2010 equivalent.
Figure 6.4 Artist's illustration of SMR module delivery. (a) NuScale, (b) Ro...
Figure 6.5 Construction schedule for South Korea's OPR1000.
Figure 6.6 The source SMR financing (a) and its breakdown (b).
Figure 6.7 The South Korea's NPP overnight capital costs (a) and its constru...
Figure 6.8 LCOE calculation example using the inputs from CSIRO and AEMO....
Figure 6.9 LCOE calculation example with NOAK SMR's input parameters.
Figure 6.10 Factors that affect the SMR capital cost.
Figure 6.11 The breakdowns for four scenarios examining SMR OCCs with Scenar...
Figure 6.12 Co‐siting configuration in Scenario 2.
Figure 6.13 Comparison of capacity factors of different energy sources in 20...
Figure 6.14 Daytime cycles of renewables (solar PV and wind) [86].
Figure 6.15 Industrial applications and cogenerations with NPP [87]/The Roya...
Figure 6.16 2018's heating consumption in the United Kingdom, based on secto...
Figure 6.17 (a) Industrial heating categories and its temperature range. (b)...
Figure 6.18 Hydrogen pathways from nuclear power.
Figure 6.19 Timeline of UK's government support in its domestic nuclear sect...
Figure 6.20 Canada's energy mix in 2018.
Chapter 7
Figure 7.1 Shares of various energy sources in total final consumption, 2017...
Figure 7.2 Pathways for carbon capture storage and utilization, including ne...
Figure 7.3 Contribution of hydrogen, natural gas with CCS, and coal with CCS...
Figure 7.4 Prospective index decomposition analysis comparison of two scenar...
Figure 7.5 Proportion of energy sources in world total primary energy supply...
Chapter 8
Figure 8.1
Shares of vehicle technologies in the passenger vehicle fleet acr
...
Figure 8.2
Illustrative trajectories for fleet turnover.
Assuming a ban on n...
Figure 8.3
Relationship between ZEV adoption policy, vehicle lifetime, and Z
...
Figure 8.4
Relationship between vehicle sales policies and ZEV fleet share in
...
Chapter 9
Figure 9.1 Global electricity generation by source.
Figure 9.2 The United Kingdom realizes falling emissions with a growing econ...
Figure 9.3 The illustration of P2G process.
Figure 9.4 A common energy hub model.
Figure 9.5 Scenario tree of a multistage SO framework.
Figure 9.6 Uncertainty sets of RO.
Figure 9.7 The proposed 33‐bus‐20‐node IEGS.
Figure 9.8 Expected real‐time voltage profiles for cases (a) 1, (b) 2, (c) 3...
Figure 9.9 Reactive power output of PV systems for case 1.
Figure 9.10 Reactive power output of PV systems for case 5.
Figure 9.11 Remaining capacity of gas storage.
Figure 9.12 Total expected cost of case 1 based on different sample size.
Figure 9.13 Gas quality indices for cases 1 and 6. (a) Wobbe index, (b) comb...
Figure 9.14 Gas pressure for cases 1, 2, and 3.
Chapter 10
Figure 10.1 Projection of growth in global energy demand. Source: U.S. Energ...
Figure 10.2 Reduction in global carbon intensity from energy efficiency. Sou...
Figure 10.3 Classification of energy efficiency approaches.
Chapter 11
Figure 11.1 Energy saving potential in buildings.
Figure 11.2 Energy efficiency investment by region and sector.
Figure 11.3 Active design strategies in residential buildings.
Figure 11.4 Energy consumption of existing case, best case, and each individ...
Figure 11.5 Case study 2 energy model.
Figure 11.6 Energy consumption of the existing and best case and each energy...
Figure 11.7 BIM‐based framework to energy‐retrofit residential buildings....
Chapter 12
Figure 12.1 Comparison between historical and weather‐adjusted consumption o...
Figure 12.2 Historical trend of total energy consumption and value added in ...
Figure 12.3 Historical trend of energy intensity.
Figure 12.4 Decomposition of energy consumption from 1995–2019 (Mtoe).
Figure 12.5 Subsectors detail of the decomposition of energy consumption for...
Figure 12.6 Decomposition of energy consumption from 1995–2007 (Mtoe).
Figure 12.7 Subsectors detail of the decomposition of energy consumption for...
Figure 12.8 Decomposition of energy consumption from 2007–2019 (Mtoe).
Figure 12.9 Subsectors detail of the decomposition of energy consumption for...
Chapter 13
Figure 13.1 Overview of central and distributed generation systems.
Figure 13.2 Classification of decentralized generation systems.
Chapter 14
Figure 14.1 Schematic depiction of different paths leading to a climate neut...
Figure 14.2 Comparison of installed electricity from renewable energy source...
Figure 14.3 Comparison of levelized cost of electricity generation in 2050 o...
Figure 14.4 Economically viable decentralization of infrastructure dimension...
Chapter 17
Figure 17.1 Grid transformation toward future smart grid.
Figure 17.2 NIST smart grid conceptual reference model [29].
Figure 17.3 Comprehensive smart grid architecture.
Figure 17.4 Smart grid technologies.
Figure 17.5 Evolution of electrical metering.
Figure 17.6 Conceptual block diagram of smart metering with its different co...
Figure 17.7 Smart metering applications within smart grid.
Figure 17.8 (a) Global market value of smart grids from 2017 to 2023 [54] an...
Figure 17.9 Drivers for smart grid adaption in developing and developed coun...
Chapter 18
Figure 18.1 Blockchain engagement stage and application fields.
Figure 18.2 Peer‐to‐peer network.
Figure 18.3 Blockchain scheme.
Figure 18.4 Digital blockchain‐based transformation of power supply system....
Figure 18.5 Blockchain use cases in the energy sector.
Figure 18.6 Overview of the energy value chain.
Guide
Cover
Table of Contents
Title Page
Copyright
Preface
Foreword
Begin Reading
Epilogue
Index
End User License Agreement
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The 4Ds of Energy Transition
Decarbonization, Decentralization, Decreasing Use and Digitalization
Edited by Muhammad Asif
The Editor
Dr. Muhammad AsifDepartment of Architectural EngineeringKing Fahd University of Petroleum and MineralsDhahranSaudi Arabia
All books published by WILEY‐VCH are carefully produced. Nevertheless, authors, editors, and publisher do not warrant the information contained in these books, including this book, to be free of errors. Readers are advised to keep in mind that statements, data, illustrations, procedural details or other items may inadvertently be inaccurate.
Library of Congress Card No.: applied for
British Library Cataloguing‐in‐Publication DataA catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
Bibliographic information published by the Deutsche NationalbibliothekThe Deutsche Nationalbibliothek lists this publication in the Deutsche Nationalbibliografie; detailed bibliographic data are available on the Internet at <http://dnb.d-nb.de>.
© 2022 WILEY‐VCH GmbH, Boschstraße 12, 69469 Weinheim, Germany
All rights reserved (including those of translation into other languages). No part of this book may be reproduced in any form – by photoprinting, microfilm, or any other means – nor transmitted or translated into a machine language without written permission from the publishers. Registered names, trademarks, etc. used in this book, even when not specifically marked as such, are not to be considered unprotected by law.
Print ISBN: 978‐3‐527‐34882‐4ePDF ISBN: 978‐3‐527‐83144‐9ePub ISBN: 978‐3‐527‐83143‐2oBook ISBN: 978‐3‐527‐83142‐5
Cover Design Wiley
Preface
The sustainability of thefossil‐fuel‐dominated global energy scenario faces serious problems. With challenges like growing energy demand, depleting fossil fuel reserves, and escalating energy prices, energy crises are making headlines worldwide. Problems like supply disruptions and shortages and soaring energy prices are happening in developing countries and developed and emerging economies like the European Union (EU), China, and India. For example, some EU member states have experienced electricity and gas prices increase by 400–500% within a year. Energy insecurity in terms of its critical dimensions – access, affordability, and reliability – remains to be a major problem hindering the socio‐economic progress in developing countries, as globally, around one billion people lack access to electricity, and nearly three billion people have to rely on raw biomass to meet cooking and heating requirements. However, these severe energy problems are being overshadowed by the mounting challenge of climate change, deemed to be the biggest threat to the planet.
Climate change already has its implications like seasonal disorder, rising sea level, a trend of more frequent and intense weather‐driven disasters, such as flooding, droughts, heat waves, wildfires, storms, and the consequent loss of lives and economy. For its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the energy sector needs to lead the fight against climate change, as also reiterated by COP 26. Responding to climate change and other challenges and ensuring energy supplies compatible with the demands of a sustainable future for the planet, the global energy sector is going through a transition.
The energy transition is an evolving concept. Also regarded as energy transitions, the eighteenth and twentieth‐century switchovers of energy systems from biomass to coal and from coal to oil and gas, respectively, primarily sought more efficient fuels in logistics and utilization. Although it predominantly pursues decarbonization of the energy sector, the twenty‐first‐century energy transition has several other important dimensions, such as decentralized or distributed energy generation and digitalization of energy systems. Decreased energy use through energy efficiency measures is also imperative for this transition. The energy transition is an emerging and evolving topic in the policy and technology circles and academic and scientific domains. The book aims to present a comprehensive and integrated perspective of the twenty‐first‐century energy transition, defining its four dimensions (4Ds): Decarbonization, Decentralization, Decreasing Use, and Digitalization. It discusses the wide range of technologies, classifying them under these 4Ds of the energy transition.
The book has five sections. The first is an opening, and sections two, three, four, and five are dedicated to the 4Ds of the energy transition: Decarbonization, Decentralization, Decreasing Use, and Digitalization, respectively. The introductory section consists of two chapters; the first presents an overview of the four‐dimensional energy transition, while the second discusses the energy transition through case studies from Germany and China. Focusing on Decarbonization, the second section is the largest part of the book, containing seven chapters. The opening chapter in this section discusses the broader dimensions of Decarbonization in the energy sector. Meanwhile, each of the subsequent six chapters focuses on a different decarbonization technology, such as renewable energy, hydrogen and fuel cells, nuclear power, decarbonization in the fossil fuel sector, electric vehicles, and integrated energy systems. The section on Decentralization has three chapters; the first is an introductory chapter, and the second and third chapters discuss the relevant technologies and governance, respectively. The section on Decreasing Energy Use also has three chapters; the first introduces this important dimension of the energy transition, and the second and third chapters discuss energy efficiency in buildings and industry, respectively. The last section of the book covers Digitalization in three chapters; the first discusses the prospects of broader digital technologies in the energy transition, and the second and third chapters discuss Digitalization in smart meters and smart grids, and blockchain technologies, respectively. Finally, the book concludes with an Epilogue.
Acknowledgement
I would like to express my gratitude to the chapter authors for their immensely valuable contribution to the book, which is a teamwork. I appreciate the reviewers’ time and effort in reviewing the manuscript. I would also like to acknowledge the King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals (KFUPM) for the provided support.
Foreword
The role of energy has never been more important. As the global community keeps its sights on the goal of 1.5 °C set in the Paris and Glasgow agreements, the need to decarbonize energy and decarbonize it at pace has never been starker. Much is already being achieved in parts of the energy system, notably in the power sector in some parts of the world. Still, the significant challenges ahead of decarbonizing the entire system, particularly transport, heat, and industry, will be much harder. At the same time, we have a one‐time chance to deliver an energy transition, which brings low‐carbon energy to all 8 billion people on Earth, creates prosperity, and balances the Earth's biosystems and climate. If we can get it right, the energy transition will require industry, governments, and inter‐government bodies to respond. It will require the best and brightest minds to provide the ingenuity, engineering solutions, and above all, the thought leadership to tackle the greatest challenge our industry has ever faced.
I am delighted to write the foreword to this thought‐leading book. The 4Ds of the energy transition have their roots in thinking by some of the Energy Institute's Fellows. In this text, Dr. Asif and some of the leading global experts on energy bring the 4Ds right up to date and provide deep insights into the fast‐evolving changes in the energy sector, focused on: Decarbonization, Decentralization, Decreasing Use, and Digitalization. I firmly believe that all four elements are critical to achieving a net‐zero energy system.
The need to decarbonize is clear; the best means of doing so are not always clear. Understanding the different pathways, compromises and uncertainties are critical, particularly in aviation, shipping, and industry.
For over 100 years, the energy system in developed economies has been a highly centralized command and control system. However, decentralization creates the opportunity for consumers to become energy producers and turn parts of the energy system upside down. This is particularly true in developing economies, and as penetration of EVs and heat grows dramatically, it will become increasingly important, even in the most developed economies.
Digitalization will play a crucial role in enabling decentralized systems to operate successfully. However, in contrast to telecommunications, media, and travel, the potential of digital in the energy system to match supply and demand, optimize infrastructure, and engage consumers remains a virtually untapped opportunity. However, change is coming, and it is coming fast.
Finally, and it does normally come last, is the notion of decreasing our energy use. Improving energy efficiency must be at the heart of delivering the energy transition. Our homes, our cars, our offices, everything about how we produce and consume energy involves shocking levels of inefficiency. And yet improving efficiency and decreasing energy use is often the cheapest, quickest, and easiest route towards decarbonization. So instead of coming last, it should perhaps come first. This is why it is an integral part of the strategy, training offer, and chartered qualifications focus at my organization, the Energy Institute.
I hope this book will help inform the academic and research community on some of the critical challenges ahead and help them identify new and important areas to work on. I also believe it will equip policymakers, international bodies, financial institutions, businesses, and many others to understand the challenges and opportunities ahead of us and help them make the right decisions to deliver the energy transition. Finally, I hope you learn as much as I did from reading it.
Dr. Nick Wayth CEng FEI FIMechEChief Executive of the Energy Institute
1Introduction to the Four‐Dimensional Energy Transition
Muhammad Asif
Department of Architectural Engineering, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia
1.1 Energy: Resources and Conversions
Growing human dependence on energy is one of the defining characteristics of the modern age. Historically, the increasingly extensive and efficient utilization of energy has been pivotal in the evolution of societies. However, the eighteenth/nineteenth‐century industrial revolution has been a turning point in human‐energy interaction. Energy has attained the status of a prerequisite for all crucial aspects of societies, i.e. mobility, agriculture, industry, health, education, and trade and commerce [1]. Energy resources exist in many physical states, harnessing and capitalizing through various technologies. They can be broadly classified into two categories: renewables and non‐renewables. Renewable energy resources are naturally replenished or renewed.
Examples of renewable resources include solar energy, wind power, hydropower, and wave and tidal power. Energy resources that are finite and exhaustible are non‐renewable such as coal, oil, and natural gas. In terms of resources, energy can also be classified into two types: primary resources and secondary resources. Primary energy resources consist of natural or unrefined resources such as raw fossil fuel, biomass, solar radiation, wind, and flowing water. These resources can be extracted or harnessed directly from nature. Secondary energy resources are refined/converted from primary resources. For example, electricity is a secondary energy resource that can be produced by transforming different primary resources. Figure 1.1 shows examples of primary and secondary energy resources.
Energy can be classified in different forms, typically through several conversion and transformation processes in their usable life cycle. Different forms of energy include chemical energy, thermal energy, mechanical energy, electrical energy, light energy, and sound energy. The four commonly used forms of energy and their mutual transformations are shown in Figure 1.2. It also highlights the associated energy resources.
Figure 1.1 Primary and secondary energy resources.
Figure 1.2 Energy resources and transformations.
The energy contained in fossil fuels – coal, oil, and natural gas – contributing to almost 80% of the world's total primary energy supplies is chemical energy. Nuclear power and geothermal energy enter the usable energy equation in the form of thermal energy. Wind power, hydropower, and wave and tidal power are capitalized as mechanical energy, while solar energy can be harnessed in the form of thermal energy and electrical energy. The most common energy requirements in day‐to‐day life include heat, electricity, and mechanized mobility. Heat is primarily acquired through fossil fuels, making it a chemical to thermal energy conversion process. Useable heat can also be directly acquired from solar energy, geothermal energy, and nuclear power. One of the most common energy transformation pathways is to convert chemical energy into mechanical energy. The first stage in this transformation process involves converting fossil fuel's chemical energy into thermal energy, usually in the form of steam, hot water, or hot gases, through boilers, rotating turbines, or internal combustion engines. In the second stage, thermal energy is converted to mechanical energy through internal combustion engines and rotary turbines. The produced mechanical energy is used in many applications, such as running machinery and transportation. This mechanical energy can also be used to produce electricity with the help of generators. Electricity can be produced through various transformation routes, including chemical–thermal–mechanical–electrical, thermal–mechanical–electrical, and mechanical–electrical.
1.2 Climate Change in Focus
Climate change is arguably the biggest challenge the world faces today. It is widely regarded as a consequence of global warming. The gradual warming of the Earth's atmospheric temperature as a small fraction of the solar radiation is entrapped by greenhouse gases. Greenhouse gases are part of the Earth's atmosphere. Human activities such as burning fossil fuels, transportation, power generation, and industrial and agricultural processes increase the concentration of these gases in the atmosphere. The eighteenth‐century industrial revolution is considered to have triggered the rapid growth in the release of greenhouse gases. For example, the atmosphere's carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration has increased from the pre‐industrial age level of 280 parts‐per‐million (ppm) to 415 ppm. The acceleration in the growth of CO2 concentration can be gauged from the fact that almost 100 ppm of the total 135 ppm increment has occurred since 1960. Commonly known greenhouse gases include water vapor, carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). The impact of a greenhouse gas depends on various factors such as their level of concentration or abundance, lifetime (duration of stay in the atmosphere), and ability to trap radiation (radiative efficiency). Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the primary greenhouse gas emitted through human activities and has been adopted as a reference index to represent the concentration of greenhouse gases. Accordingly, the global warming potential (GWP) – an index to compare the global warming impact of different greenhouse gases – of CO2 has been regarded as one.
Due to numerous involved factors and their dynamic and complex inter‐relationship, it is difficult to precisely predict the nature and extent of the implications of climate change. However, based on the expert interpretations of the available data and scientific models, certain weather‐related incidents are attributed to climate change with a great degree of confidence. Accordingly, climate change leads to many challenges, including seasonal disorder, a pattern of intense and more frequent weather‐related events such as floods, droughts, storms, heat waves and wildfires, financial loss, and health problems [2]. Climate change also exacerbates water and food crises in many parts of the world. In recent decades, the global focus on climate change has increased exponentially. Extreme weather events and natural disasters such as floods, storms, hurricanes, wildfires, and droughts have played a vital role. Since 1880, the atmospheric temperature has increased by 1.23 °C (2.21 °F). The rising temperature is driven largely by increased anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. According to the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), most atmospheric warming has occurred over the last four decades [3]. Warmer temperatures are increasing the sea level due to the melting of glaciers. During the twentieth century, the global sea level rose by around 20 cm. The rise in sea level has been accelerating every year – over the last two decades. It has almost doubled that of the last century [3]. Glaciers are shrinking worldwide, including the Himalayas, Alps, Alaska, Rockies, and Africa.
Extreme weather conditions and climate abnormalities are becoming more frequent. The situation is already widely dubbed as the climate crisis. With the recorded acceleration in the accumulation of greenhouse gases and consequent increase in atmospheric temperature, climate change‐driven weather‐related disasters are becoming more intense and recurrent. The recent seven years have been the warmest since records began, while 2016 and 2020 are reportedly tied for the hottest year on record [3]. July 2021 witnessed heat waves, wildfires, storms, and floods worldwide. North America particularly faced intense heat waves, besides record high temperatures and massive wildfires. California's Death Valley recorded a temperature of 54.4 °C (130 °F), potentially the highest ever temperature recorded on the planet, and British Columbia witnessed a temperature of 49.6 °C, obliterating Canada's previous national temperature record by 8 °C [4]. While the heat wave killed over 500 people in Canada alone, Europe and Asia were hit by unprecedented flooding. High temperatures, heat waves, and droughts are also causing record‐breaking wildfires. The 2019–2020 wildfire in Australia burnt around 19 million ha, resulting in an economic loss of over AU$ 100 billion that became the costliest natural disaster in national history [5]. The year 2021 has also witnessed heat waves fueling massive wildfires in Australia, North America, and Europe. Extreme wildfires are now becoming a new normal as experts predict more fires and higher degrees of devastation as each fire season comes.
1.3 The Unfolding Energy Transition
The global energy scenario experiences a string of challenges such as climate change, rapid growth in energy demand, depletion of fossil fuel reserves, volatile energy prices, and lack of universal access to energy. The post‐industrial revolution energy scenario is closely linked to global warming as fossil fuels are responsible for the bulk of greenhouse gas emissions. Due to surging population, economic and infrastructural development, and urbanization, fast growth in the global energy demand is adding pressures on the energy supply chain. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), between 2018 and 2050, the world energy requirements are projected to increase by 50% [6]. Most of this growth in demand is associated with developing countries.
Energy use is closely linked to the environment. It is estimated that despite the pledges and efforts by the global community to tackle climate change, CO2 emissions from energy and industry have increased by 60% since the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was signed in 1992 [7]. Climate change is already there with its implications like seasonal disorder, rising sea level, a trend of more frequent and intense weather‐driven disasters such as flooding, droughts, heat waves, wildfires, storms, and associated financial losses [8, 9]. The situation calls for an urgent paradigm shift in the energy sector. As a response to the challenges, the global energy sector is going through a transition to ensure a supply of energy compatible with the demands of a sustainable future for the planet. The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) defines the energy transition as “a pathway toward the transformation of the global energy sector from fossil‐based to zero‐carbon by the second half of this century.” The ongoing energy transition is needed to reduce energy‐related CO2 emissions to limit climate change [10].
Through the Paris Agreement, the world has adopted the first‐ever universally legally binding global climate deal to avoid the dangers of climate change by limiting global warming to below 2 °C. However, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that the world is seriously overshooting this target, heading toward a higher temperature rise, asking for major changes in four global systems: energy, land use, cities, and industry. The energy sector is where the greatest challenges and opportunities exist [11].
Following the Paris Agreement, many major economies and economic blocks – such as the US, China, the EU, and the UK – have committed to net‐zero carbon emissions. The US, EU, and the UK are targeting net‐zero emissions by 2050, while China by 2060. Each country or economic block is developing its plans for incrementally achieving its goals, but they will all require a transformation of the energy sector [11]. For example, the EU has decided to reduce emissions by 55% from the 1990 level by 2030 to go net‐zero by 2050. The US has announced to cut emissions by 40–43% by 2030. Some of the notable initiatives include having 30 GW of new offshore wind projects and cutting the cost of solar energy further by 60% over the next decade to achieve 100% renewable electricity by 2035 [12]. China targets emissions to peak by 2030 to reach carbon neutrality by 2060. Similarly, the UK has plans to cut emissions by 68% by 2030 to reach the target by 2050. A landmark decision the UK has made in shifting away from fossil fuels is closing down all coal power plants by 2024, which means the country reduces its reliance on coal for power generation from around one‐third to zero within a decade. It is a major step the UK has taken toward the transition away from fossil fuels and decarbonization of the power sector to eliminate contributions to climate change by 2050 [13].
Renewable energy is the backbone of the energy sector's transition toward zero carbon emissions. Over the last few decades, renewable technologies, especially solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind turbines, have made significant technological and economic progress. The global installed capacity of renewables increased from 2581 GW in 2019 to 2838 GW in 2020, exceeding expansion in the previous year by almost 50%. For several years, renewable energy is adding more power generation capacity than fossil fuels and nuclear power combined. In 2020, renewables contributed to more than 80% of all new power generation capacity added worldwide. The renewable sector's growth is propelled by solar and wind power, with the two technologies accounting for 91% of the new renewables added [14]. There was over US$ 303 billion invested in renewable energy projects during the year [15]. The upward scale of the renewable developments can be gauged from China's first 100 GW phase of solar and wind power buildout. The initiative will likely be expanded to several hundreds of GW in capacity as China aims to develop 1200 GW of renewables by 2030 [16]. The renewables growth trends are projected to continue as the annual capacity addition of solar and wind power is set to grow fourfold between 2020 and 2030 [11].
Renewables‐based decentralized or distributed generation systems are helping both urban and rural settings, providing several energy services. Solar PV is one of the most successful technologies, especially at small‐scale and off‐grid levels. Since 2010, over 180 million off‐grid solar systems have been installed worldwide, including 30 million solar‐home systems. In 2019, the market for off‐grid solar systems grew by 13%, with sales totaling 35 million units. Renewable energy also supplied around half of the 19 000 mini‐grids installed by the end of 2019 [15]. Efficient biomass systems, such as improved cooking stoves and biogas systems, are also helping with the global efforts to access clean energy [1, 17].
1.4 The Four Dimensions of the Twenty‐First Century Energy Transition
The use of energy has evolved through the course of history. The availability of refined and efficient energy resources has played a decisive role in advancing societies, especially since the industrial revolution of the eighteenth century. In the twenty‐first century, the international energy scenario is experiencing a profound transition as the world increasingly embraces a trend away from fossil fuels. In recorded history, there have been two major energy transitions. The first was a shift from wood and biomass to coal during the eighteenth‐century industrial revolution, and the second was the twentieth century transition from coal to oil and gas. With the advent of the twenty‐first century, the world is witnessing the dawn of the third energy transition.
The energy transition unfolding in the twenty‐first century is unprecedented. It is much more vibrant, intriguing, and impactful than the earlier ones. It is fundamentally a sustainability‐driven energy pathway focusing on decarbonizing the energy sector by shifting away from fossil fuels. Therefore, this energy transition can also be termed “sustainable energy transition” or “low‐carbon energy transition.” However, the ongoing energy transition is not just about reducing carbon or shifting away from fossil fuels. Thanks to the enormous changes and developments on the fronts of energy resources and their consumption, technological advancements, socio‐economic and political response, and evolving policy landscape, it is much more dynamic. This energy transition has four key dimensions: decarbonization, decentralization, digitalization, and decreasing energy use.
1.4.1 Decarbonization
Decarbonization of the energy sector is the most important dimension of the ongoing energy transition. Reduction in CO2 and other greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is fundamental to the fight against climate change. The energy sector can be decarbonized through various technologies and solutions, including renewable energy, electric vehicles (EVs), hydrogen and fuel cells, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and phasing out of fossil fuels. The replacement of fossil fuels with renewable energy is the most critical part of the decarbonization drive. Renewable energy is already supplying 26% of the global electricity needs. According to International Energy Agency (IEA), to achieve net‐zero emissions by 2050, almost 90% of the global electricity generation must be supplied from renewables. While some decarbonization solutions like hydrogen, fuel cells, and CCS are yet to have techno‐economic maturity, electric vehicles are already making an impact. For example, in 2020, the worldwide sale of EVs increased by 41% despite the COVID‐related economic downturn and a drop of 6% in the overall sale of vehicles. During the same year, Europe recorded the registration of new electric cars increase by 100%, and the number of electric car models available worldwide increased from 260 to 370 [18]. While electric mobility is also paving its way in the aviation and ship industry, the sale of electric cars is expected to increase from around 3.5 million in 2020 to over 55 million by 2030 [11].
1.4.2 Decentralization
Decentralized or distributed generation is the energy generated close to the point of use. Decentralized generation (DG) avoids/minimizes transmission and distribution setup, saving costs and losses. It offers better efficiency, flexibility, and economy than large and centralized generation systems. DG systems can employ various energy resources and technologies and be grid‐connected, off‐grid, or stand‐alone. Renewables like solar and wind power systems are leading the DG landscape. DG is leading in the global electrification efforts, presenting viable solutions for modern energy needs and enabling the livelihoods of hundreds of millions who still lack access to electricity or clean cooking solutions [4]. Solar PV is one of the most successful DG technologies, especially at small‐scale and off‐grid levels. It is estimated that since 2010, over 180 million off‐grid solar systems have been installed, including 30 million solar‐home systems. In 2019, the market for off‐grid solar systems grew by 13%, with sales totaling 35 million units. Renewable energy also supplied around half of the 19 000 mini‐grids installed worldwide by the end of 2019. Efficient biomass systems such as improved cooking stoves and biogas systems are also helping the global efforts toward clean energy access. In 2020, the installed capacity of off‐grid DG systems grew by 365 MW to reach 10.6 GW. Solar systems alone added 250 MW to have a total installed capacity of 4.3 GW.
1.4.3 Digitalization
The digital revolution is also revamping the energy sector. Digitalization of the energy sector employs technologies like artificial intelligence, machine learning, big data and data analytics, Internet of Things, cloud computing, blockchain, and robotics and automation. These technologies are at various degrees of techno‐economic maturity for their application in the energy sector. In general, digitalization is revolutionizing the energy sector by improving the productivity, safety, accessibility, and overall sustainability of energy systems. New, smarter modeling, monitoring, analyzing, and forecasting energy production and consumption are helping the sustainable energy transition. However, with its advantages, digitalization is also posing several challenges. Most importantly, digital transformation heavily relies on large datasets, which is increasingly exposing the utilities and energy industry to cyber security risks.
1.4.4 Decreasing Energy Use
Energy demand is rising worldwide, and it is estimated that between 2018 and 2050, global energy requirements will increase by 50%. A one‐dimensional approach to matching the growing energy demand with corresponding capacity addition is not a sustainable solution, especially when the planet is already overshooting its bio‐capacity by almost 70%. Any sustainable way to satisfy global energy requirements has to begin with decreasing energy use through energy efficiency (EE) measures. Energy efficiency is a better solution to address energy shortages than adding new capacity. A negawatt – a watt of energy not used through energy efficiency measures – is considered the cheapest watt of energy. Energy efficiency delivers economic and environmental gains to industrial and commercial entities, besides offering a competitive edge. With the available technologies, building and industrial sectors can reduce their energy consumption by 40–80% and 18–26% [19, 20].
1.5 Conclusions
The twenty‐first century energy transition is fundamentally a sustainability‐driven energy pathway. In the fight against climate change, the main focus of the energy transition is on decarbonization by shifting away from fossil fuel‐based energy systems. The energy transition is perceived as a pathway toward the transformation of the global energy sector from fossil‐based to zero‐carbon by the second half of this century. Following the Paris Agreement, several major economies and economic blocks – including the US, the UK, and the European Union – have committed to net‐zero carbon emissions by 2050, while China has targeted it for 2060. However, the ongoing energy transition is not just about reducing carbon or shifting away from fossil fuels. It is more vibrant and impactful, thanks to the enormous changes and developments on energy resources and their consumption, technological advancements, socio‐economic and political response, and evolving policy landscape. This energy transition has four main and closely linked dimensions: decarbonization, decentralization, digitalization, and decreasing energy use. The energy sector can be decarbonized through various technologies and solutions, including renewable energy, electric vehicles (EVs), hydrogen and fuel cells, CCS, and phasing out of fossil fuels. Renewable energy has a pivotal role in decarbonizing the energy sector. Having accounted for over 80% of the worldwide newly added power generation capacity in 2020, renewable energy has already become an important stakeholder in the global energy sector. However, it may be challenging for the developed and industrialized nations to adjust to removing fossil fuels and other carbon‐intensive processes from their economies. Energy transition will be harder for the developing nations that lack financial resources, infrastructure, policy measures, and technical know‐how.
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Part IDecarbonization
2Global Energy Transition and Experiences from China and Germany
Heiko Thomas1 and Bing Xue2
1Global Climate Forum e.V., Berlin, Germany
2Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
2.1 Global Energy Transition
Energy consumption is responsible for 73% of all green house gas (GHG) emissions globally. Decarbonizing the energy system is therefore the primary task in order to mitigate climate change [1]. The share of renewables in global electricity production reached 28% at the beginning of 2020, with a share of 9% stemming from volatile sources like wind and PV. The total final energy consumption includes not only the electricity sector but also transport, buildings, industry, and businesses. It takes into account all the energy needed. Renewables make up 11% of the total final energy consumption as oil, gas, coal, and nuclear dominate all sectors except the electricity sector. A significant portion of the renewable share comes from hydro and biomass, two renewable energy sources that substantially alter the environment and have limited growth potential in many regions. Wind and solar supply 2.1% of the total final energy consumption, and fossil fuels supply 79.9%, a factor of 38 and giving an idea of the humongous task to globally decarbonize the energy system (see Figure 2.1).
The energy transition in energy production relies on the growth of modern renewable energy sources, wind and PV, which should replace fossil sources. Despite enormous efforts and success stories, these grew significantly slower than the energy demand and made up less than one‐third (+7.3 exajoule) of the additional demand from 2013 to 2018 (+25.3 exajoules). That means that renewables needed to grow at least 3× times faster than they did during that period only to match the increasing demand. Table 2.1 shows the primary energy annual change numbers for all energy sources comparing 2018 and 2019. The GHG emissions still raised by 0.5% in 2019 compared with 2018 despite renewables accounting for the most significant increase in energy production (+3.2 exajoule) and a slowed‐down economy [3]. The renewable energy share in primary energy consumption increases steadily, but one should not be fooled. The absolute number of energy not produced by renewables is steadily growing! The annual change for renewables must be higher than the total change to reverse the increasing energy consumption trend. The COVID‐19 pandemic altered life and disrupted the global economy in 2020. Furthermore, the energy consumption is forecasted to shrink by 5.3%, but this an anomaly (Table 2.2). The global GDP growth will jump back to normal levels once the pandemic is over. There are indications that the global GDP can increase by 4.2% already in 2021 compared with a decrease of −4.2% in 2020 (Table 2.2).
Figure 2.1 Renewable energy share in global total final energy consumption (2018).
Source: Based on REN21 [2].
Table 2.1 Global primary energy consumption in 2019 compared with 2018 [3].
Energy source
Annual change (exajoule)
Consumption (exajoule)
Share of primary energy (%)
Percentage share change to 2018 (%)
Renewables
3.2
29.0
5
0.5
Gas
2.8
141.5
24.2
0.2
Oil
1.6
193.0
33.1
−0.2
Nuclear
0.8
24.9
4.3
0.1
Hydro
0.3
37.6
6.4
0
Coal
−0.9
157.9
27.0
−0.5
Total
7.7
583.9
Table 2.2 Global indicators from 2018–2020 (www.oecd.org/economic-outlook; www.wto.org) [3, 4].
2018
2019
2020
GHG emissions change in %
2.1
0.5
−6.4
GDP change in %
2.9
2.3
−4.2 (+4.2 forecasted for 2021)
Primary energy consumption change in %
2.8
1.3
−5.3
Source: Based on Refs. [3, 4].
Simultaneously, 11.5% of the global population, or about 860 million people, primarily living in Africa, are still without electricity access, and even a larger number does not have 24/7 access to electricity [5]. The world's population is growing at a rate of 1% per year or by 81 million people per year. Fortunately, renewables, especially PV, are predestined to provide fast and straightforward access to electricity in remote and less developed regions. Multiple companies already offer stand‐alone island solutions based on renewables including energy storage.
What is the solution if adding substantial renewable capacity does not do the trick yet? Humanity needs to lower its energy consumption substantially and do it quickly. In the bigger picture, one needs to approach uncomfortable topics like sufficiency, throwaway societies, and overpopulation, question economies based on growth, and come up with an incorporating economic (and welfare) model that needs to include a circular economy to have a realistic chance to significantly reduce the GHG emissions and mitigate climate change in the coming decades. Some measurements do not require overcoming technological or financial hurdles and can have an immediate impact. Countries with high per capita energy consumption can give up comfort to reduce their carbon footprint immediately.
Only global and regional cooperation can achieve this huge task. An example is the DESERTEC industrial initiative (Dii), launched in 2009, originally thought to provide electricity to Europe harvesting solar energy in Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA). It still exists (https://dii-desertenergy.org/) but failed for several reasons, like being labeled green colonialism because the concept initially focused too much on energy export, missing political support especially from Europe, counter lobbyism from traditional energy economies, regional conflicts, and hovering uncertainties. The idea was probably too big to be realized. Since then, many companies have left the initiative. It now focuses on counseling in the MENA region and supporting the establishment of a renewable market. However, there are success stories. Morocco imported more than 90% of its energy but is now on track to generate 42% of its electricity in 2020. An agreement with Spain, Portugal, Germany, and France opened access to the European electricity market (https://www.masen.ma/en) [6].
There is an increasing competition between conserving the environment and installing new renewables and its peripheries, thinking of wind farms in protected natural zones to take advantage of favored wind conditions and available space, flooding valleys to provide new massive hydro storage, and establishing energy transmission corridors. This dilemma is imminent in industrialized and densely populated countries like Germany. Any man‐made changes to natural landscapes get noticed. Often, the same people and organizations who demanded a change toward a more sustainable energy generation 1 or 2 decades ago are now opposing an alteration of their home landscape by renewables, especially by wind turbines, resulting in extensive and delayed approval processes or the abandonment of renewable projects. It comes down to choose between natural preservation and climate change mitigation in these discussions.
Clean energy technologies are not free from GHG emissions. It is prudent to conduct a “cradle‐to‐grave” life‐cycle assessment (LCA) of energy use, material demand, and net GHG emissions for renewables similar to evaluating fossil‐based energy sources. Fabricating and deploying renewable and clean energy technologies also exploit the environment. This exploitation includes emissions related to mining for much‐needed metals like lithium or rare earth metals, transport, fabrication, construction, installation, metal refining, operation, maintenance, repair, waste management, and recycling. It can also include deforestation and water use.
However, open‐cast lignite mining along with side effects like groundwater lowering left a giant environmental footprint with the landscape's alteration and devastation. Open‐cast lignite mining alone altered, more precisely devastated, 2350 km2 or nearly 0.7% of Germany's area. The ground that is occupied by a turbine and cannot be used in its original form anymore is about 4500 m2 per turbine and results in 120 km2 occupied in Germany. A hypothetical wind capacity increase to 10× the existing capacity to meet the climate mitigation targets (see subchapter Germany) would result in 1200 km2, approximately half of the open‐cast lignite area. Regulations are in place that require planting new trees in compensation, exceeding the area deforested to erect and maintain wind turbines. The actual visual impact affects a wider area due to the height and number of wind turbines. One megawatt of wind turbine power requires 7000 m2 in terms of spacing between turbines (aerodynamics, air turbulence, efficiency reasons), and as of 2020, there were 54 000 MW installed. That amounts to 3780 km2 or about 1.1% of Germany's area covered with wind turbines. Agriculture or forestry uses most of this area, but the landscape is altered. However, there is a visual impact that increasingly reduces public acceptance in Germany.
