The Climate Matrix E-Book

Téo Corthout

• Herausgeber: Books on Demand
• Kategorie: Wissenschaft und neue Technologien
• Sprache: Englisch

Seitenzahl: 299

Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2017

Beschreibung

This book is an independent view on climate. A first chapter explains how climate works. How can we measure climate? What drives climate? The Second chapter shows the fierceness and brutality with which climate impacts human society the last 4000years. A third chapter a window to the past and to the future in terms of millions of years. I admit I was really surprised to see what climate is doing in terms of millions of years. This book will guide you through your world as you cannot imagine your world. Mega lakes of hundreds of kilometer and hundreds of meter deep disappear and appear like mushrooms. Half a planet dies and comes back alive in a couple of millennia. The dynamics are sometimes mindboggling. This book shows the complex interaction of atmosphere and live and reverse to an extend you may not have expected. This book makes the hard work visible of organizations, researches, universities, institutions, sponsors. They make the invisible visible. Thank you! This book also pointed to the vulnerability of this planet. Climate can destroy faster and more than humans can, at the other hand humans have the possibility to fix climate as we understand climate drivers better. Téo Corthout

Leseprobe

About the set-up of this book, references, peer to peer review and independency.

This book is originally made as personal notes to support the real “Climate Matrix”. Which is an interactive digital map of climate parameters in function of time superimposed Google Earth. It visualizes real measurements and not calculated models. All plots a standardized in a 160x110mm area, high and lows are cut off by their distance from the trendline. Every data point contains comments and personal views in a quest to understand interaction with surrounding and/or remote matrix points. The reader will be guided to Plots and Figures, text comes on a secondary level. Every Plot and Figure forwards you directly to the source of the data.

A hotspot creates a cold spot through pressure balance in a matter of years. If the hotspot persists during decades, the ocean will catch up. Eventually after a couple of decades the hemisphere and globe will follow the new trend. Because of the complexity of interactions climate appears to be “blurry and smudgy”.

I will be happy to accept a peer to peer review.

This was not done yet because of keeping independency of this study. I did not accept any sponsoring, advice in order not to mix interests.

Because of the big amount of numerical data I did not take the time to read possible existing works, including the original work of the authors in order not to influence my personal interpretation of the data. Therefore, this study does not represent necessarily the opinion and views of the authors, institutions and organisations that provided the source data.

I tried to good faith to add as much and accurate as possible the original sources.

I will be happy to update, remove items in future editions of this book. Send your request with the subject: “update of original source” to [email protected]

Because of independency and/or mixing of interests I decided to self-publish this book. You may or may not agree with some findings, but the book offers inspiration and anchoring points to the general public and inspiration for future researchers.

This book is written for educational use in general. Creative commons 3.0 (Commons 2016)

Contents

About the set-up of this book, references, peer to peer review and independency.

Introduction

The reason.

2.1 Trees

2.2 Los Lacandones.

2010 - The first steps

3.1 CO2 – Does CO2 increase global temperature?

3.1.1 CO2 from Earth tectonics

3.1.2 CO2 from human activities.

3.1.3 CO2 - Burning all resources

3.1.4 CO2 – Change of land (use) change of marine environment.

3.2 Temperature

3.3 Precipitation

3.4 Resources transform to reserves by means of "Future Technology."

What is Climate?

4.1 Orbital parameters

4.2 The planet as a chemical resource

4.3 The structure of the planet itself

Climate data

5.1 How do we measure climate?

5.2 What does d18O (delta 18, isotope 18 of Oxygen) represent?

5.3 d13C –Can gas penetrate Ice? What is the speed of ventilation/degassing of the deep ocean?

Where do we get that information?

6.1 Tree rings

6.2 Speleothems

6.3 Lake drilling

6.4 Ocean drilling

6.4.1 Foraminifera – Calcium carbonate CaCO3 formation

6.4.2 Diatoms - opal formation

The key to the dynamics of the 3dimensional ocean.

Building the first piece of the puzzle

8.1 Meteorology

8.2 Oceanography

8.2.1 upwelling, downwelling and meridional overturning

8.2.2 Meridional overturning, thermo-haline circulation, MOC

Building thousands of pieces of the puzzle

What happens if we can make the sun hotter or colder?

Can we turn OFF and ON the sun?

What is the sun doing with the oceans – What is “the ocean” actually?

12.1 What is ‘the ocean”?

The end of a glacial in the North Atlantic – Heinrich Events, BA, YD?

Times of the big lakes

Central North Atlantic: cools since -2300.

How far is glacial ice moving towards the equator?

16.1 Did the ice ever touch Africa, South America, Australia?

16.2 How do we reconstruct paleo ice behavior in an open Southern Ocean?

16.3 Favorite habitat of diatoms a resume by Barbara Loïc:

16.4 SO136-111, a 220000y example of subarctic East Antarctica.

16.5 MD03-2601 a 10000y example of the East Antarctica coast

16.6 NBP01-01-JPC24 a 10000y high-resolution plot of the East Antarctic coast

16.7 A 150y high-resolution plot of the Antarctic coast – James Ross island.

16.8 The principal of the (Weddell Sea) ANTARCTIC ICE TRAP

16.9 0.0°C LGM summer SST

16.10 Dust flux from Patagonia to Antarctica

16.10.1 Easterlies, Westerlies:

16.10.2 Global d13C distribution during Glacial, Heinrich1 and modern values from the Western Atlantic.

16.10.3 Downwelling & upwelling as possible mechanism to destratify the AABW

16.11 The Sea Saw.

16.12 The Antarctic OASIS - STRATIFICATION acts like the Antarctic MONSOON

16.13 How do glacials start and end? A resume

Shifting of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).

17.1 Sumatra

17.2 GeoB3910-2, 450km south of the Brazilian equator.

The Arctic circle

18.1 Canada, Norway and Iceland, GISP2 – heating and cooling of the Arctic

What do a giraffe and a bison have in common?

The Tropical Cancer - North African mega-lakes.

20.1 The African Humid Period driven by obliquity or not?!

20.1.1 The Blue Nile component of the Nile

20.1.2 The White Nile component of the Nile is driven by the Mozambique Current SST.

The Equator

21.1 2 Equatorial Flips at Lake Towuti Indonesia.

21.2 Hottest days of the year drive regional dominance.

Australia

22.1 Present rain balance.

22.2 Can we shut down or substantially reduce the Indonesian Through Flow (ITF)?

22.3 Indonesian Through Flow (ITF), a crossroad of oceans

22.4 Can we expand the Leeuwin Current 200km to the south?

Antarctica.

23.1 What is the relation between Arctic, Antarctic, and Equator?

23.2 LGM 1°C MAT... for your reference the Arctic SST is 0°C year around.

What’s next?

Influence of climate on known human societies.

25.1 Influence of climate on human/humanoid development.

25.2 Africa

25.2.1 Africa – Egypt

25.2.2 Africa – Ghana

25.2.3 Africa - Lake Malawi

25.3 Asia

25.3.1 Mesopotamia – Akkadian Empire

25.3.2 Asia – Indus Valley -The Harappan (-3300y to -1300y)

25.4 Central America.

25.4.1 Central America - Mayas

25.4.2 Central America – Toltecs and Aztecs

25.5 North America.

25.5.1 The Great Dust Bowl.

25.5.2 The Anasazi

25.6 South America – The Amazon.

25.6.1 The Arctic influence on the Amazon

25.6.2 The Pacific influence on the Amazon

25.6.3 The Caribbean influence on the Amazon

25.6.4 The Antarctic influence on the Amazon

25.7 Climate disintegration of the United Kingdom boosts emigration to North America.

25.7.1 Summer temperatures dropped gradually 3°C in the Arctic Seas the last millennia.

25.7.2 The Great Irish Famine

25.8 Asia

25.8.1 South East Asia - Angkor Wat

25.8.2 Asia – China. Yangtze (south, 1000mm/year) versus Yellow river (north, 500mm/year)

25.8.3 Asia – China 907-960. End of the Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms.

25.8.4 Asia – China 1271-1368. End of the Song Dynasty. Evaporative cave Jiuxian.

25.8.5 Asia – China 1333-1337. Fall of the Han Dynasty.

25.8.6 Asia – China 1627-1644. Fall of the Ming Dynasty

25.8.7 Asia – China. The rise and fall of the Qing Dynasty 1644 to 1912.

Introduction

A resume of 20000years.

27.1 Africa

27.2 Australia

27.3 Asia

27.4 Europe

27.5 North America

27.6 South America

27.7 Raise your hand

Speed of climate change

LR04 – the deathly connection.

Dropping Ocean Bottom temperatures

30.1 5Million years of dropping global temperatures

30.2 The motor is the Subantarctic

30.3 The amplifier is the North Atlantic.

30.4 The second source of deep water formation booted after the closure of the Panama Passage

30.5 The first source of deep water formation

30.6 The Arctic paradox

30.7 At the other side, the Arctic paradox is not a paradox -State 53.

30.8 Arctic tunnelings

30.9 All those sailing to Svalbard need a beard

30.10 A word about Greenland

30.11 1863 or 1867? What is the link between heavy metals and anthropogenic global warming?

21ky or 41ky or 100ky what does it mean – ODP659 Mauritania?

How much did the Artic cool the last 15My?

32.1 Is there a calibration error?

32.2 To what extent are tectonics responsible for Arctic cooling?

32.2.1 The closure of the Panama Isthmus, and the rise of Greenland?

32.2.2 What is the contribution of tectonic uplift and buoyancy of continents due to the sea-level drop?

32.2.3 The rise of the Himalaya?

32.2.4 The Mountain that went to the sea

32.2.5 How does the Asian Monsoon look like in a window of 5 Million years?

32.2.6 Why is Africa and Australia drying so fast?

15My cooling of South Africa and formation of the Agulhas Current

60My of Subarctic cooling.

34.1 What happened -10My?

How often was it hotter than present between 40N and 80N?

Was -2.6My the first 100ky cycle?

Plots of 500000 years don’t teach you anything!

What do the Bottom waters teach us?

Redesigning the planet.

39.1 Carbon fundamentalists – 09 Feb 2015 Supreme Court blocks Obama carbon emissions plan

39.2 China is passing United States and Africa is passing Europe.

39.3 Digging ourselves out.

39.3.1 How do we dig ourselves out?

Biodiversity

Epilog - WE ARE THE BEST, WE ARE THE GREATEST, GOD IS WITH US

Bibliography - References - Sources.

Table of figures, plots and tables

About the Author

1 Introduction

I’m working now 5years on climate studies, which initially I thought it would be a matter of months.

Numbers, number, numbers and more numbers tumbling down like in the movie “The Matrix” (The Wachowski Brothers 1999). A non-stop flow of numbers. The numbers kept comming to the point the numerical ocean was overflowing, pushing me further back into time, to spaces and times I never could imagined.

“Chaos”!

Nothing is more organized than Chaos.

While the years went on I started to see the dynamics of climate out the waterfall of numbers. While there was little time to see television, or following the news. Instead I got new insights, new small discoveries almost on a daily base. It would turn out climate is a very, very complex process, no wonder many valid studies ended with: "we don’t know if more research is required".

The process of unraffling climate was very intriguing. The search, the quest, the road was fascinating, day by day to discover everything linked to climate. There are basic processes that drive this planet we even don't know they exist. How many parameters are involved? Everything is linked to climate.

Bit by bit I converted the gray mass of numbers into pictures. The invisible became visible by standardizing, stretching, zooming synchronizing the numbers until the nonsense became sense. Linking the bits of the puzzle. First bits and pieces. Then connecting regional patterns. Revising and updating bits and pieces. Revising teleconnections. Adding missing links until the answer on "how works climate?" is satisfactory.

2 The reason.

2.1 Trees.

The Climate Matrix started as a spin-off of my reforestation project “3-FORCE”.

The goal of 3-FORCE was: each person plants just as many trees to offset their personal emissions. A simple and efficient idea yes indeed!

But, already at an initial stage I was concerned by tree growth in function of time, in a rapidly heating world. With: “in function of time”, I mean over 50, 100 years because that is the time frame in which trees grow.

From the business or the economic perspective you can go on with a reforestation project, but from the scientific and ethical point of view the same question returns: is my forest, my country still green or will it turn into savanna or grassland within a generation? In that case, all your reforestation money is just wasted”? Not temperature but net precipitation, net water availability determines a successful reforestation project. Eventually, it has cost me about 5years to find a basic, reasonable answer on a relatively high-resolution region by region to have an idea what is temperature, what is precipitation, what is climate, what is this planet, how does this planet behave? It was very intriguing. The search, the quest, the road was very fascinating … day by day to discover that everything is linked to climate and that everything is connected.

2.2 Los Lacandones.

“The Climate Matrix” is written in honor of K’in Chankin Chanuk, one of the most remarkable persons I have ever met, and the Lacandon people as a hole. Written in honor for the Lacandon preservation and respect for their environment. The Lacandon represent ancient wisdom and tradition. The Lacondon represent the fight against colonial powers and climate degradation which came to a double collapse of the Maya civilizations.

I was like 6 years old when I was fascinated by the disappearance of ancient civilizations such as the Mayas... While my climate web got more and more accurate and complete, I would understand that megadroughts are rather the rule than the exception everywhere on the planet.

The Lacandon (Figure 2.2-1 p.→) became a permanent drive and presence during years of climate quest. They are the white angels of the forest.

Figure 2.2-1 The Lacandon, Chiapas Mexico

3 2010 - The first steps.

1648 Jan Baptist van Helmont potted a willow tree. He measured the amount of soil, the weight of the tree and the water he added. After five years, the plant had gained about 74 kg (164 lbs.). Since the amount of soil was basically the same as it had been when he started his experiment (it lost only 57 grams), he deduced that the tree's weight gain had come from water. Since it had received nothing but water and the soil weighed practically the same as at the beginning, he argued that the increased weight of wood, bark, and roots had been formed from water alone (van Helmont 1653).

One reason why this article is important to me because Jan lived around the corner. He introduced the word “gas” in science. The main reason why this article so important is that it give an answer to the question: “What is CO2, what is a gas?”. A tree converts gas into solid material, the tree “in some sense” evaporates during the rotting process or when it is burnt.

The same as the misinterpretation of van Helmont that the increased weight came from the water we as a human society face today. Our understanding of climate and processes that drive climate are in their baby shoes. Often I feel I live in times where people still think the Earth is flat.

3.1 CO2 – Does CO2 increase global temperature?

In 2009, in an initial phase of the project, I made calculations on CO2 emissions. First I had to find an answer to the question does CO2 increase global temperature or does it come from the sun or the earth tectonics? This was in times where there was no global consensus that CO2 had anything to do with global warming just as much as cigarettes have anything to do with long cancer.

In 2010 I found the answer in calculations of the CO2 content in magma. Then I plotted all earth its biggest magma eruptions against temperature rise at the time of the eruptions. Once this link was made the next question was how much CO2 is necessary to increase global temperature? What would be the maximum global temperature rise if we would burn all available resources?

3.1.1 CO2 from Earth tectonics.

There are a million active deep sea volcanos. 75,000 of these volcanoes rise over 1 kilometer (half a mile) above the ocean floor. The most productive volcanic systems on Earth are hidden under an average of 2,600 m (8,500 feet) of water. The mid-ocean ridges produce an estimated 75% of the annual output of magma. (Fisher, Heiken and Hulen 1997). Only around 25% CO2 is produced by terrestrial volcanos. Every cubic kilometer magma contains a percent of carbon dioxide.

Figure 3.1.1-1 White smokers emitting liquid carbon dioxide at the Champagne vent, Northwest Eifuku volcano, Marianas Trench Marine National Monument. Right picture is a close up of liquid carbon dioxide bubbles. (Lupton and Butterfield 2004).

This far the introduction. Sometimes volcanic activity switches a gear higher.

(Rampino and Stothers 1988) cite eleven distinct flood basalt episodes occurring in the past 250 million years, which created volcanic provinces and plateaus and coincided with mass extinctions.

In 2008, Bryan and Ernst refined the definition to narrow it somewhat: "Large Igneous Provinces are magmatic provinces with areal extents >1 x 105 km2, igneous volumes >1 x 105 km3 and maximum lifespans of ~50 My that have intraplate tectonic settings or geochemical affinities, and are characterized by igneous pulse(s) of short duration (~1–5 My), during which a large proportion (>75%) of the total igneous volume has been emplaced. (Ernst and Bryan 2008)

9.3.1 CO2 from human activities.

The Mean CO2 Global plot is common knowledge (Plot 3.1.2-1 p.→) (Tans 2016), (Dlugokencky 2016). Carbon dioxide concentration follows an accelerating function in time.

At this rate, we reach 674 ppm CO2 global by 2100y.

Plot 3.1.2-1 Mean CO2 Global and mean Mauna Loa (Tans 2016)

3.1.3 CO2 - Burning all resources.

The World Resource Institute lists of 1.1E+15kg cumulated (fossil fuel + land use change) CO2 emissions from 1950to2000 (WRI 2005). This requires 0.3E+15kg pure Carbon. In this same period, temperatures rose 0.54°C.

The graph of the Energy Information Administration (Plot 3.1.3-1 p. →) (EIA, Int. Energy Outlook 2007 2007) shows us historical data and projections global energy consumption from 1950 to 2030. Extrapolated up to 2100 then converted the Btu to kg C results in 1.33E+15kg C from fossil fuel only. After cross-multiplication, this is good for 2.4°C extra. An optimistic carbon mass balance point to a +3°C scenario from 1950to2100.

Kg C

°C

0.30E+15

0.54

Fuel + land use change 1950-2000 (WRI 2005), temperature change 1950-2000 (Noaa 2016)

1.33E+15

2.40

Fuel only extrapolated 2000-2100 (EIA, Int. Energy Outlook 2007 2007)

2.94

Temperature rise from 1950 to 2100 due to human impact (this study)

Plot 3.1.3-1 Total Energy Consumption Global projections 2007to2030 (EIA, Int. Energy Outlook 2007 2007)

Plot 3.1.3-2 Total Energy Consumption Global projections 2011 to 2040 (EIA, Int. Energy outlook 2016 2016)

From 2007 to 2016 there is substantial change in fuel projection, however total fossil fuel consumption keeps rising up to at least 2040.

3.1.4 CO2 – Change of land (use) change of marine environment.

Deforestation, agriculture, draining swamps, thawing of permafrost, decreasing capacity of CO2 absorption of the Southern Ocean, CO2 release from the oceans, all the effects combined increase the total greenhouse gas content of the atmosphere.

3.2 Temperature

One must specify which temperature. Land? Ocean? Land and Ocean? Minimum? Maximum? Mean? Based on the global measured temperature anomaly (Plot 3.2-1 p. →) (Noaa 2016). I conclude:

From 1950yto2100y temperature would rise +2.7°C with "zero" population and economic growth and “zero” extra marine and “zero” additional permafrost response. The measured temperature anomaly follows an accelerating function in time.

+2.7°C is an optimistic scenario for future global land and ocean combined temperature rise.

At this point, it could have become a religion. We will do all the possible in the world to make the bad thing –a 2.7°C global temperature rise - from not happening.

By answering the fundamental question: “is CO2 responsible?, is 2.7°C bad?” we do not answer anything. Very simple because I have never seen anyone suffering of 2.7°C warmer than today.

Plot 3.2-1 Measured Temperature index, anomaly Global Land Ocean combined (Noaa 2016)

3.3 Precipitation

Precipitation, rain is what makes or breaks! I want to know if my trees grow in Kenya, Sahel, Mexico, India and China. Or would a +3°C rise desiccate countries beyond recognition not only affecting vegetation but slam down complete societies?

How bad is drought?

3.4 Resources transform to reserves by means of "Future Technology."

What no one will ever have told you is that future technology will be able to set free multiple times the current fossil hydrocarbon stocks (EIA, Natural Gas 1998: Issues and Trends 1998). Gas hydrates resources are from 3to4692times bigger than current natural gas resources. No small fish! I cite the first paragraph of the EIA on page 73of90:

Global estimates place the gas volume (primarily methane) resident in oceanic natural gas hydrate deposits in the range of 30,000 to 49,100,000 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), and in continental natural gas hydrate deposits in the range of 5,000 to 12,000,000 Tcf. Comparatively, current worldwide natural gas resources are about 13,000 Tcf and natural gas reserves are about 5,000 Tcf. (EIA, Natural Gas 1998: Issues and Trends 1998).

Robotization and drilling technologies are moving fast and will make today’s impossible to exploit resources available. Involved interest’s not only from business (don’t blame business), states and enduser are too big.

It is very unlikely the oil industry suddenly will put a shield on their door: “as of today we are closed”. On the other hand, it is unlikely the end-user suddenly says: “you know what, as of today I leave my car at home.”

Error! Reference source not found. Population estimates and probabilistic growth Global (United Nations Department of Economic ad Social Affairs 2015)

In a UN-high scenario global population will be 2.2 times bigger in 2100 than in 2010.

2.2times higher energy demand in 2100 than in 2010? What is available will be sold!

In fact, instead of finishing our fossil stocks, we are only beginning to use them. We just ran the” warmup program”. This is the bottom line of global warming. I propose a 100%alternative energy and a population stop as of today.

At this point the question was not anymore will global warming be 2.7°C. Nor an infinite discussion: CO2, yes or no. At this point, there was nobody anymore who had the answer how the future would liook like. So, I had to dig deep to find an answer. I had to go back in time and learn from history, from times when similar conditions were prevailing. A long and heavy quest would start to make the invisible visible.

4 What is Climate?

Everything eventually is linked to climate.

We have orbital parameters, biological life and the physical planet itself.

The final effect results in one hemisphere being hotter than the other.

4.1 Orbital parameters.

A basic parameter of climate is the position of the planet in the universe and in the solar system. The position of the planet its axis to its own plane of orbit is known as axial tilt (obliquity) with a period of 41000years. The position of the planet its axis with respect to fixed stars is known as axial precession with a period of 26000years. The shape of the orbit of the Earth eccentricity has a periodicy from 95000 to 125000 years and loosely combines into a 100ky-cycle under gravitational forces of Saturn and Jupiter. (Milankovitch cycles Wikipedia 2016)

4.2 The planet as a chemical resource.

Aside the orbital parameters we have the planet as a chemical resource for the biological life, which transforms the nutrients such as CO2. Life can make or break a planet.

Imagine if plants would flourish to such extent that they could remove all carbon out of the atmosphere. In other words, remove the food for terrestrial biological organisms – you, me– to the deep ocean where it could become inaccessible for reuse.

This process did not happen yet. In fact, life has stabilized temperature during a billion years using the carbon in the atmosphere, adding it back to the atmosphere, reusing the carbon to create multiple times new life with “old evaporated” life. At this point I would like to mention Jan Baptist van Helmond one of the first thinkers who understood this process. Eventually, carbon would be locked into the earth and locked off for reuse, buried as sediment.

In contrary to the recycling, reuse of organic components there is a very unique way to use the planets resources by the silicon life because of its efficiency in the sedimentation of CO2. The silicon life is without equal because it builds a true climate book thanks to its exceptionally high quality of conservation. Unlike its counterpart -the carbonate life -in hotter areas silicon life does not need high temperatures, it does not need sunlight. It dominates the vast Antarctic Seas where it feeds on an abundant unused resource: “Silicon” pushed up from 5km deep to the surface by upwelling. In the hotter areas without upwelling CaCO2 life of marine life dominates depositing chalk sediments.

Since the beginning of life there was a balance between the inorganic carbon added to the atmosphere and the removal of the organic carbon keeping global temperature relatively stable. The intense cooperation between the death and living planet allowed species to evolve over geological scale. CO2 the main food for life in general. Depleting the atmosphere would stop life itself by the lack of food. Giving the planet time to add CO2 until the heat comes back and CO2 as a food source becomes available where the cycle can restart.

This is the real miracle of this planet. Understanding how this process works and depends on orbital and planetarian parameters is particularly fascinating and complex.

4.3 The structure of the planet itself

The ocean currents, the air currents and shape of the continents change. The inorganic planet, without its biological life or the universe around it, changes and forms a fundamental parameter of climate.

The position and shape of the continents determine the direction and strength of ocean currents which in their turn change air currents. In their turn, the air currents modify the ocean currents.

Let's not forget the Albedo, which to my opinion is one of the most underestimated climate influencers.

All the planetarian parameters together define the size and shape of atmospheric cells. If any of these parameters changes the atmospheric cell will modify size and shift position.

The continents as obstacles define global climate. Everything is interlinked with each other and hooks up with each other. Countries may rise up from the deep sea (3to4km deep) while mountains (3to4km high) get washed into the sea. That is the second miracle of this planet. Eventually continents behave like clouds.

5 Climate data

5.1 How do we measure climate?

We cannot send a satellite back in time a million years to measure precipitation and temperature, so we will have to find techniques to work around, to get the best estimate temperature and precipitation.

We call these best estimates proxies. They are not precise, but as good as we can get.

Ways, tools to measure climate change: there are many, many tools to measure certain climate indicators. Chemical and, or mechanical composition of one location changes as a response to a changing climate.

Here is a grasp of common measurements I encountered:

d180 - read oxygen isotope 18 of Oxygen (do not confuse with the ice volume compensated one d18Oivc)

d13C - read carbon isotope 13 of Carbon (do not confuse with the ice volume compensated one d13Civc)

Uk’37 - calibration is based on alkenones of Coccolithophores (Figure 32.1-1 and Figure 32.1-2 p191)

TEX86 - calibration based on GDGT produced by Archaea (Figure 32.1-3 p191)(do not confuse with )

Mg/Ca ratio of planktonic and benthic foraminifera

SiO2 Opal accumulation rate

CaCO3 Carbonate accumulation rate

Magnetic susceptibility

Reflectance XRF

Chemical composition

Grain size

Glacier equilibrium line

Ice accumulation rate

Loss on ignition

Tree ring data

Pollen concentrations revive ancient habitats on a seasonal base

I personally prefer to measure %pollen of specific plants, %plankton species, % diatom species, %ostracods species, %benthic species, %planktic species because it gives a more seasonal info than general average data. The biological response to habitat changes revives ancient habitats on a seasonal base.

Diatom concentrations allow restoration of paleo sea ice concentrations on a seasonal base

By comparison with today, we know that some diatoms are a proxy for annual sea ice quantity.

Other species reflect spring ice, another summer ice, another autumn ice. So you are going to have a much more detailed image of a site within the year not a general average annual image Year to Year. I don’t like that too much; it is too average. It is not a reality representation. The scientific society will have a lot of work in the future to improve mapping at a high temporal resolution to fully understand past climates.

We started this voyage not to another star, but to our own past in order to predict the future.

5.2 What does d18O (delta 18, isotope 18 of Oxygen) represent?

d18O (delta 18, Oxygen isotope 18) has a density at 20°C of 1110.6kg/m³. d16O has a density at 20°C of 997kg/m³ (Table 5.2-1 p.→) (SAHRA 2005).

16

O (amu)

15.9949

18

O (amu)

17.9991

1

H (amu)

1

1

H (amu)

1

1

H (amu)

1

1

H (amu)

1

1

H

2

16

O (amu)

17.9949

1

H

2

18

O (amu)

19.9991

kg/m

3

997.0

kg/m

3

1110.6

Table 5.2-1 Density difference between d18O water and d16O water (SAHRA 2005).

d18O is related to the total global mass of ice. The lighter d16O is stored in the ice caps, the more d18O is left behind in the ocean, the higher the d18O value of sea water. The opposite happens when the ice caps melt than the concentration of 18O in sea water is smaller. In high-pressure areas d16O water evaporates first, the heavier d18O will stay behind. In low-pressure zones it rains a lot and the concentration of d18O drops by adding d16O.

The more d18O depleted, the wetter the climate as it is the case during interglacial. The less d18O depleted the drier, typical during glacials.

The following example will be pretty convincing:

GISP2 Greenland shows that during glacials the site receives 5cm_2” of rain per year during 30000years (Plot 5.2-1 p.→) (R. Alley 2004).

This kind of dry you would expect in the driest deserts of the planet.

Plot 5.2-1 Ice accumulation rate GISP2Greenland (R. Alley 2004)

As slow as a snail, but over long periods of time looks what happens....

A fast count learns 5cm_2” ice accumulation during 100000years results in 5km of ice... Run this a million years and you end up with 50km of ice. Where did all the ice go? Give it a thought.

In practice Greenland is an ice mountain of only 3.2km heigh. Is the ice is pushed under its own weight in the ocean? Accelerated by undercut during interglacials?

5.3 d13C –Can gas penetrate Ice? What is the speed of ventilation/degassing of the deep ocean?

Why has deeper ocean water (-2km, -3km, -4km... -6km) lower PDB d13C values (Plot 5.3-1 p.→) (L. e. Lisiecki 2010)? Why has a glacial ocean lower PDB d13C values? The plot below give us a oversimplefied idea of ocean stratification. 3dimensional slices of each ocean, for glacial versus deglacial, will give us a more accurate view on ocean stratification. During the coldest periods the global ocean reacts more like a small pond, an aquarium locking up organic nutrients in its bottom waters, sealing them from air contact.

Exposure time of surface waters before it forms deepwater:

How much the d13C value lowers from deep waters which sources from surface water, depends upon temperature, wind speed and residence time in the air-sea contact area (source area). Dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) steps into the air and maximises the d13C value of the water under cold temperatures and in areas with the highest wind speeds, such as the modern subantarctic where planktonic foramifera record an d13C enrichment up to 1‰ (Broecker and Maier-Reimer 1992) (Charles and Fairbanks 1990) (Lynch-Stieglitz, et al. 1995) (Ninnemann and Charles 1997).

Removal and/or adding of C12 to deepwater while it cuts its path through the centuriers:

Aside of the surface ventilation component of deep waters which sources from surface water there is the nutrient utilisation and/or productivity component. Massive ice growth prevents CO2 to step in the atmosphere, and O2 to step into the ocean in the subantarctic reagion. Returning the posibility to return deep water unmodified to the deep ocean. This offers the mechanism for a deep water mass to circulate in the ocean and through the centuries mixing with other water masses, adding C12 on its path into the bottom water mass lowering the d13C concentration. Personal I believe that C12 enrichment due to global fertilisation lowered the d13C values, that explains why during extreme glacials deep Atlantic d13C values dropped to -1‰VPDB.

The present North Atlantic deep waters have high d13C values, between 1‰and1.5‰VPDB, because of high nutrient utilisation in the source area. (L. M. Waddell 2009) (L. M. Waddell, et al. 2009)

The conveyor belt turns at a speed of 1600years to refresh; waters get exposed in the Southern Ocean. There were times that the conveyor belt turned at 3200years. Resulting in negative d13C values. There were times when the ice (sea ice) stretched thousand kilometers further toward the equator reducing CO2-exchange between sea and air substantial. The NADW would go up, reach the ice and go down without export of CO2 to the atmosphere. This explains the global carbon storage during glacial periods. It also explains the massive CO2 release in the air at the end of glacial periods when ice melts.

D13C reflects the Ice surface and ventilation speed (age of the water) where d18O reflects ice volume and saltines. Of course the primary driver is temperature as a motor to produce ice and ocean mixing/upwelling/ventilation.

d13C can be used as a tracer of the source region and/or age.

Plot 5.3-1 d13C Shallow, Mid and deep Atlantic (Lisiecki, Raymo and Curry, Atlantic and Pacific Regional 450 Kyr Benthic d13C Stacks. 2010)

Note: shallow, mid and deep respectively 2km, 3km, 4km deep

Last but not least:

The nutrient content of the planet as a whole can change through the millions of years or due to extreme volcanism. Let’s not underestimate this. Today we create something similar due to anthropogenic carbon injection.

Figure 5.3-1 Columbia River Basalt Group (Merck 2010)

Figure 5.3-2 Three Devil's grade Moses Coulee, Washington (Wikipedia, Columbia River Basalt Group 2016)

Plot 5.3-2 HP Stat d13C Benthic Forams U1337 Colombia (Holbourn, et al. 2015)

Plot 5.3-3 HP Stat d18O C. Kullenbergi ODP1085 South Africa (Holbourn, et al. 2015)

6 Where do we get that information?

The main sources of climate data come from speleothems, lake drilling and ocean drilling.

6.1 Tree rings