The Domain of Subtle Warcraft E-Book

Derya Yalimcan

• Herausgeber: BoD - Books on Demand
• Kategorie: Fachliteratur
• Sprache: Englisch

Seitenzahl: 203

Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2025

Beschreibung

This book aims, to canvas the Peoples Republic of Chinas grand strategy as a fundamental threat to the Western Alliance in its domestic territories, in particular through economic warfare. Based on the methodology of military tactics, combined with the anthropology of economics and through military relevant strategic infrastructure investments, the PRCs actions, are serving in the backyard of the EU and the Americas, including a possible establishment of a naval base in the Atlantic. The so-called soft power of the PRC has entered a new phase of action.

Leseprobe

Table of Contents

THE DOMAIN OF SUBTLE WARCRAFT

CHAPTER 1

THE ARCHIPELAGO OF THE AZORES

THE ARCHIPELAGO OF CAPE VERDE

CHAPTER 2

REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA

INTERMARIUM

MILITARY NEUTRALIZATION THROUGH ECONOMIC WARFARE

THE ROLE OF TÜRKIYE

SOCIOLOGICAL STRUCTURE OF MOLDOVA

THE USE OF LEVERAGE

RUSSIA’S ATTEMPTS TO AFFECT MOLDOVA

GAGAUZIA - TURKISH-DOMINATED REGION

SOCIOPOLITICAL DYNAMICS

ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES

SOCIOCULTURAL INTEGRATION AND IDENTITY

MOLDOVA’S ENERGY TRANSFORMATION

COMPARISON

THEORY BUILDING

EXPLANATION

SCENARIO 1

SCENARIO 2

SCENARIO 3

SCENARIO 4

SCENARIO 5

CONCLUSION:

RECOMMENDATIONS

CHAPTER 3

REPUBLIC OF TÜRKIYE

RUSSIAN GAS HUB-PROJECT IN TÜRKIYE

IMPLICATIONS FOR EUROPE

RUSSIAN HEGEMONY ON TURKSTREAM PIPELINE

ON ENERGY SECURITY AND ECONOMIC

INTERDEPENDENCE

TÜRKIYE-RUSSIA RELATIONS

OPPORTUNITIES AND THREATS ANALYSIS FOR

TÜRKIYE

NUCLEAR FACILITY PROJECT IN TÜRKIYE

THE AKKUYU NUCLEAR POWER PLANT

ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

IMPLICATIONS FOR NATO AND THE EU

CHINESE INVESTMENTS IN TÜRKIYE

CHINESE ECONOMIC IMPACT ON TÜRKIYE AND THE EU

CHAPTER 4

SULTANATE OF OMAN

OMAN AS A CRITICAL SOURCE OF OIL FOR THE CHINESE ECONOMY AND ITS BEARING ON STRATEGY

POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE OF BUILDING MORE OIL REFINERIES IN OMAN

ANALYTICAL AND CRITICAL ASSESSMENT OF OMAN'S OIL STRATEGY AND ITS GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS

7. BIBLIOGRAPHY

This book is the synthesis of a series of essays authored between March 2023 and September 2024, which collectively formed the basis of the author’s doctoral dissertation in the domain of business operations during economic warfare. The subject matter is notably underexplored, largely due to the prevailing attitudes in Western countries, particularly Germany, where political correctness and commercial interests often dictate a more cautious approach to such controversial topics. Faced with the conventional but costly option of publishing in highimpact journals ranked from Q1 to Q3—requiring substantial "processing fees"—the author chose to self-publish. This decision was driven by a commitment to underscore the critical urgency of the issues at hand, which are increasingly relevant as the strategic opportunities for the European Union diminish. The choice to avoid traditional academic publishing channels, although potentially beneficial to personal reputation, was deemed inappropriate given the pressing significance of the discourse It may be observed that the individual essays compiled in this volume do not exhibit consistent uniformity or precision in their use of language. This variability can be attributed to the fact that these essays were at different stages of development when the author, influenced by academia, opted to redirect his doctoral research focus towards a less contentious topic.

Extrapolations on Economic Warfare: Addendum 15, December 2024

The collapse of the by both Russia and China supported Assad regime in Syria, is anticipated by some Western nations as a resolution to the refugee crisis in Europe—a hopeful but possibly naive expectation. The assumption is that the opponents of the regime may wish to return to their homeland. However, the fate of the military personnel loyal to Assad presents a complex challenge. Following Russia's strategic abandonment of the Assad regime to further its Grand Strategy, it is plausible that these former regime loyalists, now in civilian guise, may seek refuge in Turkey or Iran.

This scenario highlights a recurring pattern in the geopolitical chess game of the Middle East, where Russia appears to have sacrificed its "bishop"—Syria. This raises critical questions: What ultimate goal does Russia aim to achieve with such sacrifices, and could Iran, the "knight" in this Middle Eastern chessboard, be the next to be sacrificed? The strategic significance of this maneuver is underscored by the historical targeting of Israel, the United States' Achilles' heel, primarily by Iranian-backed entities.

Should a conflict erupt between Israel and Iran, the aftermath could prompt a massive exodus of both Iranians and Syrians—potentially up to 25 million people—towards Turkey. Such a mass migration would necessitate the immediate opening of Turkish borders to prevent the country from descending into chaos and civil war. This influx could sociologically neutralize Turkey, a key NATO member, and by extension, lead to significant social and political destabilization across Europe.

In such a scenario, some factions within Europe might seek assistance from the Russian Federation, hoping for a restoration of peace and order, aligning with the sentiments already expressed by certain left and right political groups within the continent. This complex web of strategic sacrifices and alliances highlights the intricate and high-stakes nature of geopolitical strategies in the region, with far-reaching implications for global stability and security.

a Turkish proverb says:

While the Byzantines debated whether the angels were female or male, the Turks conquered Byzantium.

Berlin, 07/October/ 2024

Preface:

As the political retreat of the United States from global responsibility politics becomes more and more obvious and tangible, the political vacuum is being filled with the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) and the Russian Federation's presence.

The aim of this book is, to canvas the People’s Republic of China’s grand strategy as a fundamental threat to the Western Alliance in its domestic territories, in particular through economic warfare.

Based on the methodology of military tactics, combined with the anthropology of economics and through military-relevant strategic infrastructure investments, the PRC’s actions, are serving in the backyard of the EU and the Americas, including a possible establishment of a naval base in the Atlantic.

The so-called soft power of the PRC has entered a new phase of action.

In the same manner, the relevance of the Republic of Moldova and the Sultanate of Oman, are key states for the West, to be able to guarantee its security in its domestic territories. There is also the danger of the Republic of Türkiye breaking apart from the Western security concept, or at least the neutralization of the Republic of Türkiye, as a fundamental country of Western alliance defence architecture. This book focuses on the strategically essential locations for the West, the Azores archipelago, the Cape Verde archipelago, the Republic of Moldova, the Sultanate of Oman and the Republic of Türkiye. With the fundamental support of the Russian Federation, the People's Republic of China is implementing economic mechanisms to neutralize the Western states' capacities through socio-economic proactive actions.

These tactics, methods, and strategic measures, initiated by the PRC economy, and implemented by the Chinese Communist Party worldwide may be described as massive economic warfare.

Chapter 1

Given that the People's Republic of China competes with the USA and the EU, and the West in general, in the economic, geostrategic, and cultural control over multiple destinations; neorealism provides an opportunity to analyze and interpret the respective actors' steps within a theoretical setting.1

With its state-centered approach, the theoretical backdrop of neorealism also may accommodate the somehow diametrical concept of soft power as defined by Joseph Nye, chosen as an alternative theoretic model that focuses on the PRC’s cultural and development policies as a policy pattern to win “hearts and minds” within Cape Verde. 2 Furthermore, given both the US’s as well as the PRC’s vast diplomatic, economic, and geopolitical capabilities, Cape Verde itself, again if interpreted within neorealism, due to its limited power within the international system is more to be interpreted as minor albeit not fully passive part. As the notions of competition and conflict as part of the interstate struggle for control, power, and hegemony are central to neorealist International Relations theory, the research problem might even be interpreted within the deeper geopolitical rivalry between Beijing and Washington. 3 Indeed, the Hobbesian concept of “anarchy” between states, albeit partially aimed by the confines of international law, seems to be a component of neorealist International Relations theory applicable to US-PRC rivalry upon Cape Verde as well as the African continent as a whole.4 The neorealist postulate of analyzing the economic, military as well as other capabilities of both main actors will be employed within this analysis.

The mid-20th century Rimland Theory by American political scientist Nicholas Spykman emphasizes maritime power and coastal control as a counterweight to Mackinder's Heartland Theory. Spykman believed that the "Rimland," which includes Western Europe, the Middle East, and East Asia's coastline territories5, held the key to global dominance due to its access to crucial sea lanes and resources. Spykman claims that Rimland control permits naval power, commerce dominance, and strategic alliances to influence the worldwide balance of power. In business operations, the Rimland Theory emphasizes the role of maritime trade routes, port facilities, and geopolitical alliances in promoting global commerce and minimizing geopolitical competition and maritime security threats.

According to Xi Jinping, the PR-China must take measures to reclaim its historical territories 6 . By executing a new Marshall Plan, many people assume that China is abandoning its reputation of being an isolated nation; however, this is not mostly the case. 7 The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) 8 “will dominate technology and weaponize the global supply chain.”9 It will put China at the core of the trade markets in Eurasia, providing undue market leverage and compelling other countries to bend down to China’s authority.

In the 21st century, new global power actors have challenged Western supremacy and changed international relations. PR-China and Russia are the largest growing powers, each challenging the Western order in its manner.

The development of the PRC as a worldwide economic superpower has influenced the international order. In recent decades, the PRC has seen remarkable economic progress, bringing hundreds of millions out of poverty and swiftly modernizing its economy in a “particular direction.”

This particular direction is comparable with the “Reichsautobahnen” of the Third Reich, a network of transnational highways, constructed in the last decade before Adolf Hitler’s Blitzkrieg against the whole of Europe.10

The PRC has become the world’s second-largest economy under the Communist Party of China (CPC) ruling through fast economic expansion and modernization, influencing worldwide trade, investment, and finance due to its massive population, abundant resources, and ambitious development plans changing its economy in the direction of full-frontal confrontation.

Authoritarianism in the PRC can be described as both “soft” and “hard.” The PRC’s leadership, in contrast to Russia’s, has gained legitimacy as a result of its successful development undertakings, and through establishing a transnational economic system of success, which have been crucial in strengthening Party power. The majority of the state bureaucracy and business in Russia are more concerned with the exploitation of resources than with the growth of the country11.

In contrast to Western liberal democracy, the authoritarian PRC has one-party rule, centralized decision-making, and minimal political pluralism. The Communist Party of China (CPC) controls the military, judiciary, media, and civil society, monopolizing political power. The PRC government has adopted market-oriented economic reforms and globalization, but it has also repressed dissent through censorship, surveillance, and political oppression. The PRC system has survived and adapted despite its authoritarian nature, allowing the PRC to confront Western forces globally.

Systemic distinctions between dominating cultures shape global power dynamics and geopolitical agendas. Western liberal democracy, based on individual rights, the rule of law, and representative democracy, has dominated Euro-Atlantic culture and beyond, where in the centre the human as individual stands. Diverse kinds of democracy each solidify in their unique way. The democratic system strikes a compromise between limited government and the consent of the people.12 As a reflection of the “liberal” characteristics of the state, a system of internal and external checks on the government ensures the protection of citizens and safeguards their freedom. On the basis of universal suffrage and political equality, it is characterized as “democratic” since it holds elections on a regular basis that are competitive.13

The practice of ruling from above without the consent of the people, the foundation of authority is legitimacy. Authoritarian regimes place a higher importance on authority than they do on liberty. In contrast to totalitarianism, authoritarianism does not seek to eradicate the separation that exists between the state and civil society. There is the potential for authoritarian regimes to permit a wide range of economic, religious, and other freedoms. But the essential difference in PRC is the people’s self-perception, where Confucian nation-building applies, namely, in the following order: Nationprovince-city-district-neighborhood-familyindividual. Therefore, the self-perception is contrary to the Western societies.

These structural distinctions affect economic warfare and geopolitical strategy, specifically with Cape Verde and global power relations. Cape Verde’s strategic location and potential as a gateway to the Americas make it a focal point for the struggle between Western democracies and authoritarian governments as the PRC expands its economic influence in Africa and the Atlantic through the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative14.

“The best way to predict the future is to create it. If you can predict the counterpart's moves, you won't be defeated. "

Korean Admiral Yi Sun Shin – Nanjung Ilgi.

The Archipelago of the Azores15

The Azores’ strategic value location near marine chokepoints like the Strait of Gibraltar enhances the strategic value of the islands. Full control over the Azores can affect Gibraltar, a vital Atlantic-Mediterranean gateway and the maritime channels to the United Kingdom and France. The strategic handling of that point monitors and regulates naval and commercial shipping channels crucial to global trade and military operations.

Due to the People’s Republic of China’s geostrategic engagement in Sub-Saharan-Africa, the Azores became one essential focus point of Beijing’s engagement in the area, monitoring the military Lajes Airfield on Terceira Island, which is jointly administered by Portugal and the United States. The PRC’s typical observation of the Atlantic Ocean near the Azores shows that it may have done so since 2012. An article published in the Asia Times by geopolitical researcher Emanuele Scimia states that “the entire psychodrama occurred at the end of June 2012, when then Chinese premier Wen Jiabao made a layover on the Portuguese island of Terceira, in the Azores, after a four-nation visit to South America.”16

The North Atlantic archipelago of the Azores has long been a key hub in global geopolitics and supply lines. The Azores served as a bridgehead between the US and Europe during World War II, facilitating troops, supply, and communication movements over the Atlantic. The Azores remain strategically important, with its control affecting global power dynamics and security. The island, 1,000 miles west of Portugal, is at the crossroads of North America, Europe, and Africa. Its unique location makes the islands an essential tool for any power-seeking Atlantic influence within the Atlantic. Military logistics, surveillance, and naval operations benefit from the Azores' control, which allows monitoring and possible control of North Atlantic marine traffic.

Scimia goes on to say that the departure of the Pentagon from Terceira would be a reason for concern for Lisbon due to the fact that the facility is essential to the economy of the island. Indeed, Lajes Airfield is the second largest employer on the island, with a total of 700 Portuguese permanent workers and 90 temporary workers contributing to its workforce. The reduction in the size of the United States military base will result in the loss of a significant number of jobs on the island. The close relationship that Beijing maintains with Lisbon, which is burdened by debt, is another cause for concern.17

Furthermore, Citizenship through investment in Portugal 18 is widely used by the PRC’s nationals, especially through Macao residency. It is possible for an investment of as little as 250k € to apply for Portuguese citizenship. In comparison, the population of Portugal is approximately 10 million19 and, the population of the Azores is 242k.

The global powers, including the PRC, have focused on the Azores’ strategic importance in recent years. In 2019, the PRC attempted to buy Lajes Airfield20, to build a business hub. This was part of a larger strategy to enhance the PRC’s influence across the Atlantic and important regions worldwide. The Portuguese government declined to allow the PRC to proceed with its plans due to Pentagon pressure leading to security risks. The PRC’s interest in the Azores is part of a global strategy of strategic investments and infrastructure development. The PRC has gained influence along key maritime routes by controlling ports and harbors in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Greece. The “String of Pearls” strategy protects the military corporation the PRC’s maritime interests and boosts its worldwide dominance.

The PRC has extended financial assistance offer to Lisbon for a period of two years, and Chinese and Portuguese officials have discussed the possibility of conducting anti-piracy and escorting operations in the Arabian Sea 21 . This would require and legitimate PRC’s naval forces in these territories and a deep-sea harbor for the PRC’s naval forces would be required which cannot be a NATO Harbor.

Over a significant portion of the Atlantic Ocean, Washington maintains authority and conducts patrols from Lajes Airfield. According to navy analysts, the control of this strategic outpost by the PRC may potentially restrict air and marine travel between Europe and North America, prevent maritime access to the Mediterranean Sea by USnaval forces, and pose a threat to the eastern coast of the United States, The PRC’s government is apparently considering securing military installations under the pretense of establishing business hubs in Greenland22 and the Caribbean.23 At the same time, it is anticipated that the PRC would conduct additional exploratory activities in the Atlantic Ocean, close to the Azores.

The Azores case illustrates the PRC’s strategic rivalry with the West, particularly the US and NATO. Control over vital sites like the Azores influences military logistics, global trade, energy, and regional stability. The Azores’ airbases and ports might enable NATO operations, maritime surveillance, and conflict logistics. The West fears Chinese investment in the Azores, notably for security and geopolitical stability, as demonstrated by the Pentagon intervention against the sale of the airfield. Giving the PRC a presence in the Azores might weaken NATO’s strategic position and threaten North Atlantic security. The Monroe Doctrine24, which has affirmed US dominance and opposed foreign involvement, would also be challenged.

The Chinese role model – The Phoenician Trade Network25

“This network involved both direct and indirect exchange of raw and finished products, people, as well as political and cultural ideas. The Phoenician Trade Network was a system of interconnected, moderately independent population centres that all participated in the advancement of Phoenician mercantilism and wealth.”

The Archipelago of Cape Verde

Like the Azores, the Cape Verde Islands, off Africa’s northwest coast, are of great geopolitical importance. The islands are a vital nautical gateway between Africa, Europe, and the Americas due to their Atlantic Ocean location. This geographic advantage and prospective deep-sea harbors have attracted global powers, particularly the PRC, which seeks influence through strategic investments. Ships crossing the Atlantic can refuel and reload on the islands, increasing their value in global transportation and logistics networks.

In a similar way to the Azores, later part of the 14th century, the Portuguese colonized Africa and the islands that were next to it, and they established Praia, Cape Verde, at the crossroads of Atlantic shipping lines. This key location controls and monitors maritime trade between Europe, Africa, and the Americas. One of the world’s deepest natural harbors, Mindelo’s harbor can accommodate container ships, oil tankers, and military ships, making it vital to logistical operations. Controlling a key harbor is advantageous.

Based on this context, Cape Verde is reframing the Ambition 2030 initiative 26 . Launching a decade of activity that creates prosperity is the strategy that will be implemented. Cape Verde’s strategic location, exactly 350 miles off the coast of West Africa, has been recognized by the world’s superpowers for a long time.27

The Clove Revolution in 1975, basically a military coup by leftist Portuguese officers resulted in the abandonment of 500 years of Portuguese Colonial policy. Amilcar Cabral’s anti-West, pan-African campaign was successful in gaining independence for Cape Verde. In the following years country displayed support for communism.

The recently built National Assembly building, which was constructed by the Chinese, is currently facing massive Russian and Chinese seashore embassies that date back to the Cold War.

In recent years, the Cape Verde islands, which had previously been uninhabited, have become a popular tourist spot today's popular tourist destination around the world, especially for Chinese tourists. 28.

Following the opening of its stunning beaches to tourists from Europe, tourism had become a significant contributor to the country’s gross domestic product by the time the first decade of the new century came to a close. The majority of this income came from European aid, which came primarily from Portugal, Luxembourg, and the EU. As a result of Cape Verde’s exceptional administration, the European Union (EU) bestowed upon the country a “special partnership” in 2007 and provides direct funding to the national budget.

Due to the Economic expansion policy of the PRC in recent decades, the PRC has demonstrated interest in Cape Verde. Following its policy of acquiring strategic assets abroad to strengthen its geopolitical influence. Within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Beijing aims to build a global commerce route and infrastructural network. The PRC is interested in Cape Verde’s deep-sea harbors because they may be an opportunity for a nautical presence in the Atlantic. Chinese investments frequently involve infrastructure development for long-term strategic gains. The PRC may build Cape Verde’s port infrastructure as it did in Gwadar, (Pakistan), Hambantota, (Sri Lanka) and Piraeus (Greece). Modernizing port facilities, building logistics centers, and improving maritime connectivity are common investments of the PRC.29 These upgrades enhance local economies and give the PRC vital supply chain nodes. Large-scale Chinese investments provide Cape Verde with opportunities but also cause challenges. On one hand, capital and infrastructure development can boost the islands’ economy. Improved ports and logistics can enhance maritime traffic, accelerating trade and job growth. Tourism, fishing, and manufacturing can also benefit from increased global market connectedness. However, such investments also result in strategic consequences. The PRC’s grip over Cape Verde’s maritime infrastructure might change the Atlantic’s power balance. Porto Grande, which is located in Cape Verde, is located on the northeastern shore of Sao Vicente. The waters in its semi-circular harbor, which is well-sheltered, are tranquil and range in depth from 40 to 100 ft. The port is equipped with 11 wharves that have a combined length of 5216 ft.30 It has three ferry berths that are 688 ft long and a sea depth of 17 ft. Additionally, the port is used for the transportation of fuel, refined oil, gravel, and cement. Among the most important exports are canned fish, skins, lumber, citrus fruits, and bananas. Due to its position, it is a significant facility for the refueling and servicing of ships. In 2014, the port that was constructed in the 1960s had renovations that included the extension of quays, the expansion of the embankment to cover 9 hectares, and the provision of storage.

Porto Novo’s cold storage facility spans 1.5 hectares and has the capacity to store 6000 tons. Mostly, it is used for storing fish and other perishable goods. A total of seven thousand square meters of covered warehouses are used to store dry goods. On the 985ft. -long and 36ft.-deep pier, both solid and liquid bulk are handled. Two container ships can be offloaded simultaneously at two docks that are each 66 ft. long. Economically, Cape Verde’s deep-sea harbor is key to its marine hub ambitions.

“Destiny and the vast future interests of the United States in the Pacific clearly indicate who at no distant day must be responsible for the government of these islands”. President Cleveland's message about Hawaii (December 18, 1893)31

A maritime repair facility that was established with Chinese32 funding and is located in the St. Vicent Special Economic Zone33 of Cape Verde is utilized by Chinese ships.

As part of its assistance for growth, the PRC lavishly sponsored the renovation of the presidential palace 34 as well as the construction of a new university campus 35 . In addition, Huawei 36 information technology systems have been installed in public buildings and have established a “smart city” 37 grid in the nation’s capital, including all apparatus with Chinese semiconductors. 38 On the other hand, the United States has been less noticeable. The United States Department of State recognized the country as one of its “anchor states” in Africa in the year 2015, and in 2017, it signed an agreement regarding the status of forces. In the ongoing war against Brazilian drug traffickers who exploit Cape Verde’s strategic location to transship drugs to Africa and Europe, the United States continues to provide assistance to the country through military and law enforcement collaboration. However, the majority of the support that was intended for the country’s growth has been terminated since 2017.39