The Wiley Trading Guide, Volume II E-Book

• Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
• Kategorie: Fachliteratur
• Sprache: Englisch

Seitenzahl: 418

Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2011

Beschreibung

Some of the most successful traders in the U.S., Australia, and Asia share their secrets with you Following on the heels of the bestselling Volume I, The Wiley Trading Guide, Volume II brings together an elite selection of writings from many of the most successful traders in the world today. These market aces share their secrets on everything from arbitrage to precious metals trading, options and commodity futures to technical analysis. Featuring completely new material from each contributor, this book offers intermediate to experienced traders a veritable gold mine of indispensable information on how to make a killing in the financial markets in the wake of the global financial crisis. * Hot topics covered include automated forex trading, why silver will leave gold in the dust, technical analysis of the energy and commodity futures markets, and market conscious trading * New writings by trading luminaries based in the U.S., Australia and Asia, including Roger Kinsky, Colin Nicholson, Jeff Cartridge, Ashley Jessen, Ramon Barros, Jacob Bernstein, Chris Kacher, Gil Morales, and Kathy Lien

Leseprobe

Wiley Trading Guide Volume II

Table of Contents

Chapter 1: Planning to succeed

Novices are only starting out: they achieve poor results

Average investors are well on their way: they achieve average results

Good investors go a lot further: they achieve superior results

Great investors go all the way: they achieve outstanding results

Step 1: Learn how markets work and how to assess investment opportunities

Step 2: Create a written investment plan

Step 3: Put the plan into action

Step 4: Track investment results against the objective of the investment plan

Step 5: Record investment reasoning in a journal when each decision is made

Step 6: Evaluate decisions made against the investment plan

Step 7: Identify aspects of investment performance requiring improvement

Step 8: Devise and carry out a program of deliberate practice

Chapter 2: Market-conscious trading

Market-conscious trading is learned

A model to create market-conscious success

Key elements of the model

Market-conscious behaviour and aptitude

A market-conscious approach to stopping losses

Putting the fire out

The scratch trade

The essence of market-conscious profit: buy the discount and sell the premium

The analytical challenge

The psychological challenge

The procedural challenge

Final thoughts

Chapter 3: The importance of position size

Position sizing strategies can mean the difference between profits and wiping out your account

Position size in different instruments

Forex contract sizes

Futures contract sizes

Contracts for difference contract sizes

Position size methods

Fixed unit position size

Fixed dollar position size

Fixed fraction position size

Fixed risk position size

Martingale versus anti-martingale

Your favourite position sizing methods put to the test with real life trades

Fixed unit exposed

Fixed dollar exposed

Fixed fraction exposed

Fixed risk exposed

What method do the professionals prefer?

Calculating position size

Simple steps to work out your position size

How much risk is too much?

Your commission and its impact on position size

Multiplying your success

Scaling in

Pyramiding

Scaling out

Applying position size techniques

Strategy one: scaling in

Strategy two: pyramiding in

Strategy three: scaling out

Best position sizing model

Chapter 4: Success in the day trading game

The bad news

The good news

Some examples

The 30 MBO examples

Let’s review

Trading discipline

The origin of discipline

Final thoughts

Chapter 5: Big profits from small caps

Investing or trading?

Trading small caps

David Hunt’s Profit Hunter principles of small cap stock trading

Technical analysis

A historical, real-time example

Following Focus Minerals

What you can get from this

Chapter 6: Applied technical analysis in the oil markets

What is technical analysis?

The technical analysis bar chart

The principles of technical analysis

Trendlines

Trendline angles

Trendlines and breakouts

Support and resistance

Volume

Candlestick charts

The VIP relationship

An example of the VIP relationship

End-of-trend signal

Price gaps as price targets

Fibonacci retracement levels

Mathematical indicators

The relative strength index

Moving averages

Chart patterns

What is a price chart pattern?

How many groups of chart patterns are there?

Triangle formations

Symmetrical triangle in the beginning of an uptrend (continuation pattern)

Symmetrical triangle in the middle of an uptrend (continuation pattern)

Ascending triangle in an uptrend (bullish continuation pattern)

Final thoughts

Chapter 7: Riding the silver bull market

Introduction to the precious metals

The silver lining

The gold-to-silver ratio

Trading the gold-to-silver ratio

Trade number one

Trade number two

‘Gold bug’ conspiracy theories

What moves the silver market?

Trading the physical metals versus paper markets

Paper silver

Understanding the Commitment of Traders report

Hedging currency fluctuations

Metals leasing

Final thoughts

Chapter 8: Automated forex trading

The future is here

How does it work?

What is forex?

How do we trade forex?

Watch out for scammers

Different styles of trading strategies

Technical analysis

Fundamental analysis

News announcements

A simpler approach

My favourite (free) expert adviser

How to set Blessing 3 up on your computer

Get a 24/7 internet connection

Download Metatrader

Install the expert adviser

Learn about set files

Load your expert adviser and set file

Fine-tuning the settings

Trade comment

EA number

Emergency close all

Portion PC

Max DD per cent

Use holiday shutdown

Force market conditions

Use any entry

Use MM

LAF

Lot

Multiplier

GAF

Use smart grid

Max trades

Break-even trades

Set count array, grid set array and TP_set array

Reducing your risk

The double bot strategy

Back-testing your strategies

Going live

Final thoughts

Further resources

Chapter 9: Keeping a close eye on company directors

How do we find out what they are doing?

How do we interpret a Change of Directors’ Interest Notice?

Step one: work out the ‘nature of change’

Step two: establish who is doing the buying or selling

Step three: confirm the class of the securities

So, what do we do with this information?

Directors throwing big money at the stock

Directors buying after a significant fall in price

Directors continually buying

Buying by several directors at once

Directors buying as the stock is falling

Big buying does not always mean big results

Does selling by directors mean that the company is doomed?

Putting it all together

A brief look at the behaviour of directors

Final thoughts

Chapter 10: Understanding the implications of market context in technical chart patterns

Factors that influence market context

The context of market stages

Market context is most important when selling short

News events as a source of market context

Market volatility as a form of market context

Contrarian strength as a form of market context

Final thoughts

Chapter 11: An introduction to Barros Swings

What are Barros Swings?

Magnitude of swings

The essential principles of Barros Swing trend identification

Using Barros Swings to trade

How I draw Wyckoff trend channels

Change in trend patterns

Normal

Final thoughts

Chapter 12: Extracting consistent profit via the Microswing Trend Capture Technique

Order entry and price directionality

Time framing and wave cycles

Concept of a risk-defined cycle

Tracking price action: entering a wave cycle

Microswing efficiency

Ancillary tools to anticipate potential microswing entries

Profitability and performance is independent of entries and exits!

Selecting a suitable position size for the Microswing trade

Achieving symmetric position size distribution for survivability: the EOR factor

Geolinear money management system

Linear and non-linear expectancy

Interday compounding: the edge factor

The purpose of compounding in money management

Profit maximisation

Type I: rolling to break-even entries/exits

Type II: scale to break-even entries/exits

Trading and exiting the CWC trend profitably

Final thoughts

Chapter 13: Pivot point analysis

Confirming market trends

The foundations of pivot point analysis

Defining the levels

Persons Pivots

Choosing time periods

Predicting highs and lows using the calculations

Combining time frames

Filtering out excess information

Predictive power of pivot points

Persons Pivot Study indicator

Final thoughts

Chapter 14: The Tandem Method

A trading style using moving averages and trendlines

Stupid or not?

The trendline

Moving averages

The number three

My method

All markets for all people

Case study one: General Electric

Case study two: coffee

Case study three: euro vs US dollar

Final thoughts

Bibliography

Chapter 15: Band trading

Trends

Trend channels

Wave action in channels

Band trading in sidetrending channels

Example 1

Example 2

Shares suitable for band trading

Band trading in uptrending channels

Band trading in a downtrending channels

Example 3

Bollinger Bands®

Bandwidth and volatility

Bollinger Band trend indications

Trading signals from Bollinger Bands®

Example 4

Final thoughts

First published 2011 by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd

42 McDougall Street, Milton Qld 4064 Office also in Melbourne

Typeset in Adobe Caslon 11.5/14.2

© John Wiley & Sons Australia 2011

The moral rights of the authors have been asserted

National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-Publication data:

Title: The Wiley trading guide. Volume II / Kristen Hammond (editor).

ISBN: 9780730376873 (hbk.)

Notes: Includes index.

Subjects: Investment analysis. Stock-exchanges. Speculation. Futures market. Money market.

Other Authors/Contributors: Hammond, Kristen.

Dewey Number: 332.64

All rights reserved. Except as permitted under the Australian Copyright Act 1968 (for example, a fair dealing for the purposes of study, research, criticism or review), no part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, communicated or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written permission. All enquiries should be made to the publisher at the address above.

Microsoft Excel screenshots on pages 14, 52, 58, 64, 66, 67 and 68 used with permission from Microsoft.

The DealBook® 360 screen capture in chapter 2 is used with permission from GFT. GFT and John Wiley & Sons Australia are separate and independent companies. GFT’s DealBook® 360 trading software is offered as a free service to GFT customers. However, GFT is not responsible for the information provided in this book. Forex trading presents substantial risk of loss with or without the use of GFT’s DealBook® 360 trading software.

Figure 7.3 on page 145 Courtesy of U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission.

Figures 9.1, 9.2, 9.3 and 9.4 on pages 181 to 186 © ASX Limited ABN 98 008 624 691 (ASX) 2011. All rights reserved. This material is reproduced with the permission of ASX. This material should not be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form whether in whole or in part without the prior written permission of ASX.

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Disclaimer

The material in this publication is of the nature of general comment only, and does not represent professional advice. It is not intended to provide specific guidance for particular circumstances and it should not be relied on as the basis for any decision to take action or not take action on any matter which it covers. Readers should obtain professional advice where appropriate, before making any such decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, the authors and publisher disclaim all responsibility and liability to any person, arising directly or indirectly from any person taking or not taking action based upon the information in this publication.

About the authors

Ray Barros

Ray Barros is a professional trader, fund manager, author and educator. Ray closed his private hedge fund in December 2010. In 1990, he started with A$20 million, and by the time the fund closed it had grown to A$943 million. The December 2010 result was the best in his trading history, securing a 137 per cent return.

Ray is also the author of two books: The Nature of Trends and The Ray Wave. Ray has been regularly featured in regional newspapers and publications such as the Singapore Strait Times, the Sydney Morning Herald, Your Trading Edge magazine, Singapore Business Times and AFRSmart Investor. He has also been featured on BBC (Asia), CNBC, Bloomberg, Channel News Asia and a number of Indian TV stations; for example, Channel 18 (CNBC Indian Affiliate) and UtV-Bloomberg. In addition, Ray has given public and in-house seminars in Sydney, Singapore, Bombay, Shanghai, London, Tokyo and Taiwan.

Contact: <[email protected]>.

Jacob Bernstein

Jacob Bernstein is President of MBH Commodity Advisors Inc. and Bernstein Investments Inc. Born in Europe in 1946, Bernstein moved to Canada and then to the United States. He has authored more than 35 books on trading, investing, investor psychology and economic forecasts. His books have been published by leading publishers, including John Wiley & Sons, McGraw-Hill, Simon & Schuster, Dow-Irwin, New York Institute of Finance, Entrepreneur Press and HarperCollins. He is publisher of , , , , , , and . His newsletters and advisory services are read internationally by traders, investors, brokers, financial institutions and money managers. Bernstein’s consulting clients include some of the largest hedge funds, brokerage firms, market analysts, banks and professional traders in the world.