Water and Environment in the Selenga-Baikal Basin E-Book
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The water resources of the Selenga River/Lake Baikal system are of fundamental importance for the ecosystems and socio-economic development of the region. In this large-scale river and lake basin, there are strong contrasts between regions of relatively pristine nature and massive anthropogenic impacts on the environment. Climate change effects are more pronounced than in most other parts of the earth, and the transition from socialism into a more market-oriented economy has led to a boom in mining but also to a partial collapse of environmental monitoring and urban waste water management systems. Moreover, the expansion of agriculture and mining has triggered a considerable land cover change, rising water consumption, and the release of contaminants that had previously been unknown to the region. The consequences for the water resources and the aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems depending on them have become increasingly visible in recent years. This book, which is based on contributions to the 2014 "Bringing Together Selenga-Baikal Research Conference", provides a multidisciplinary insight into current water-related challenges and strategies for their solution from the viewpoint of the international scientific community.
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Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2016
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Table of Contents
Water and Environment in the Selenga-Baikal Basin:International Research Cooperation for anEcoregion of Global Relevance
Daniel Karthe1,2, Sergey Chalov3, Nikolay Kasimov3, Martin Kappas2
1Department Aquatic Ecosystem Analysis and Management, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Magdeburg, Germany
2Instituteof Geography, Georg-August University, Göttingen, Germany
3Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Russia
The Selenga Baikal Basin: An Ecoregion of Global Importance
As the deepest and oldest lake in the world, Lake Baikal features a unique ecosystem which was declared a world natural heritage site by the United Nations in 1996. The lake's most important tributary is the Selenga River, which contributes about 50% of the influx into Lake Baikal and has a consierable part of its runoff generated in the Mongolian part of its basin (Chalov et al. 2015; Karthe et al. 2013).Together with the Angara and Yenisey rivers it forms the longest river network in Eurasia and has been widely recognized as a significant driver for the state of Lake Baikal.
Large parts of the Selenga River Basin, and in particular the upstream subcatchments of the Selenga and its tributaries, are sparsely settled and still in a relatively natural state. These headwater regions are often mountainous, forested and responsible for a large part of the runoff generation (Minderlein & Menzel 2015). Rivers have a largely natural hydrological regime without notable abstractions or hydromorphological modifications.Further downstream, meandering river courses flowing through wide valleys covered mostly by steppe are characteristic. Parts of these grasslands have been converted to cropland, which is often irrigated due to the low precipitation (below 500 mm for most of the river basin) and high evapotranspiration (Karthe et al. 2014; Menzel et al. 2011). Moreover, large herds of livestock (sheep, goats, cattle, horses, camels) are reared in the Mongolian part of the Selenga River Basin. Agricultural water demand had been increasing over the past decade and is expected to rise further due to a warming trend that is about twice theglobal average (Malsy et al. 2015; Törnquist et al. 2014). The three largest cities of Mongolia (Ulaanbaatar, Erdenet and Darkhan) as well as Ulan Ude, the capital of the Republic of Buryatia in Russia, are located on the Tuul, Orkhon, Kharaa and Selenga Rivers, respectively. Because of the associated concentrations of population and industry, these cities are major water users and waste water producers (Gardemann et al. 2012; Karthe et al. 2015). In addition, various mining activities are concentrated in the basin, including the exploitation of coal, gold, copper, molybdenum and wolfram (Sandmann 2012; Thorslund et al. 2012). As a consequence, problematic concentrations of nutrients, heavy metals and other toxic substances have recently been detected in surface and groundwater resources (Avlyush 2011; Hofmann et al. 2015; Nadmitov et al. 2014; Pfeiffer et al. 2015). At the same time, the transboundary location of the Selenga river system means that gathering consistent information on water availability and quality across state borders constitutes a challenge for regional water management Given the current development of the irrigation and mining sectors as well as plans for the construction of dams and reservoirs in the upper parts of the Selenga River, these problems could become exacerbated in the future (Chalov et al. 2015).
North of Ulan Ude, the Selenga River branches into a wide delta, the largest freshwater inland delta in the world.The associated wetland constitutes a unique ecosystem (Гармаев & Христофоров 2010) and acts as the finalgeobiochemical barrier before the Selenga discharges into Lake Baikal. It has a great impact on pollution delivery to Lake Baikal, storing up to 60-70 % of the sediment load of the Selenga River (Тулохонов&Плюснин2008).
Bringing Together Selenga Baikal Research: An Interdisciplinary Collaboration of International Experts
Given its large scale (see figure 1), global relevance and the numerous water-related challenges, it is little surprise that the water resources and aquatic ecosystems of the Selenga river and Lake Baikal basin were and still are the subject of various national and international research projects. Involving a multitude of regional and foreign experts, the projects have not only dealt with a wide range of geoscientific, biological, economic and socio-political topics, but also focused on different parts of the large Selenga River Basin.
Figure1: The size of Lake Baikal, as illustrated by one of theparticipants of the Bringing Together Selenga-Baikal Research Conference (Prof. Dr. Christian Opp, Marburg University, Germany)
During the past 5 years, several research projects which had started independently from each otherbegan exchanging data and coordinating their field activities.This lead to the development of a collaboration between Lomonosov Moscow State University (Russia), Stockholm University (Sweden), the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (Germany) and École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL, Switzerland) who in 2012 co-organized an international and interdisciplinary workshop, the “Bringing Together Selenga Baikal Research Conference”. The first such conference was held at the international campus of Lomonosov Moscow State University in Geneva, Switzerland, and attended by experts from France, Germany, Mongolia, Russia, Sweden, Switzerland, and the USA.
In 2013, representatives of several groups conducted a joint expedition through the Selenga River Basin which was followed by the “Baikal – Strategic Global Resource of the 21stCentury” conference in Ulan Ude, thereby continuing the discussion and exchange of ideas that had been initiated the year before.
In October 2014, the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research in Leipzig, Germany hosted the second “Bringing Together Selenga Baikal Research Conference”. The conference was attended by more than 40 international experts, some of them with several decades of research experience in the study region. The papers in this book, which are based on the conference, provide an overview about the objectives and key findings of past and current research activities in the Selenga-Baikal Basin. In this way, they summarize the present state of the art and but also indicate future research needs.
Photos: Participants of the Bringing Together Selenga-Baikal Research Conference on 31 December 2012 in Geneva, Switzerland at Moscow State University International Campus, and 2 October 2014 at the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Germany
Key Results of the 2014 Bringing Together Selenga Baikal Research Conference
A first group of papers deals with theavailability of surface and groundwater resources and the role of rising abstractions, climate and land use changein this context.Malsy & Flörkeutilized the WaterGAP3 model and scenarios for climate change and socioeconomic development to forecast future water availability and abstraction trends.Kappas,Renchin, Munkhbayar, Vovaand Degenerdiscuss the feasibility of long-time satellite data series for the detection of land use change. Such information is valuable since land cover changes are very pronounced in some parts of the Selenga-Baikal Basin, and are expected to have significant impacts on the regional hydrology.Renchin,Kappas, Munkhbayar, Vovaand Degenerpresent an example of possible drivers of land degradation in a Mongolian province.Dandar et al.present first results of a study on groundwater recharge in the Mongolian national capital region. Their study shows that (a) groundwater is a very limited resource that can easily be overexploited in densely settled areas such as Ulaanbaatar, and that (b) quantitative assessments are restrained by poor data availability.
A second group of papers deals withenvironmental pollution impacts of anthropogenic activities.Batbayar et al.analysed the water quality pattern in surface water bodies in Northern Mongolia, identifying pollution gradients that follow urban and mining impacts.Shinkareva et al.discuss the development of heavy metal fluxes from mining areas and major urban centers to Lake Baikal.Chalov & Romanchenkoconsidered the impacts of environmental changes in the river basin on sediment and pollutant transport. The three papers show that anthropogenic activities in the Selenga Baikal Basin have manifold impacts on water quality, including increased sediment influx, rising nutrient loads and contamination by heavy metals.Koshaleva et al.investigated the levels of soil contamination in six urban and mining areas along the Selenga and its tributaries. Two of the areas discussed here are described in more detail in the case studies presented by two additional papers.Timofeevassessed the effects of mining on soil contamination in the city of Zakamensk, where pollution levels in two thirds of the urban area were found to be significant.Sorokinacreated a geochemical map of Ulaanbaatarwhich localizes major pollution sources and distinguishes between zones characterized by different levels of environmental pollution.
In addition to the papers dealing with sediment transport primarily from a water quality perspective, two more contributions focus onfluvial transport dynamics and morphology.Promakhova & Alexeevskyanalyse the results of field measurements of sediment loads in 2013-2014 done by Lomonosov MSU team together with Stockholm University and describe the sediment transport regime of the Selenga under different runoff conditions, thereby looking at the entire length of the river system. One particularly relevant outcome of this study is that noted longitudinal inequalities in sediment balances could increase after the planned construction of dams along the Selenga.Le Dantecet al. investigated the Kukuy Canyon (Lake Baikal) by shallow bathymetry, including a discussion of sediment transport and deposition pattern from the nearby mouth of the Selenga.
Thestate of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystemsand relevance of specific stressors is the focus of a fourth group of articles.Enkh-Amgalan et al.provide an overview of the natural environment and anthropogenic stressors in the Mongolian part of the Selenga River Basin.Gunin & Bazhaanalysed the modification and degradation of natural vegetation in the entire Selenga-Baikal Basin and compared it to the developments in neighboring regions of Central Asia.Luckenbach et al.show that climate change is likely to cause regional shifts and changes in the composition of the amphipod fauna of Lake Baikal.Shimaraeva et al.compared the development of Baikal phytoplankton in a reference area without waste water influence and the region impacted by treated waste water from the pulp and paper factory in Baikalsk (which was shut down in 2013).
Water managementis the central theme of a fifth section consisting of four papers.Garmaev et al.describe the history and categorization of flood events for the Russian part of the Selenga River Basin, including the relevance of hydrological research for better preparedness.Karthe et al.summarize the scientific basis for the conceptualization of an Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) in the Mongolian Kharaa River Basin. In the same context,Heldt et al.discuss to what degree the European Water Framework Directive (EU-WFD) could serve as a model for river basin management planning in Mongolia.Westphal et al.assessed potential realizations of constructed wetlands for waste water treatment in Mongolian cities.
The final section introducesinnovative monitoring techniquesthat may be relevant for future water-related investigations in the Selenga-Baikal Basin.Akhtman et al.describe the development and deployment of a novel multispectral and hyperspectral remote sensing platform that is carried by ultralight aircraft.Siegfried et al.outline advantages of biosensors for water quality monitoring and take a specific look at the applicability of the recently developed ARSOlux system for screening and monitoring of drinking water in potentially arsenic-affected areas of Mongolia. The necessity of investigating drinking, ground and surface water hygiene in the Selenga River Basin is discussed byKarthe, including perspectives for the application for advanced microbiological techniques. Finally,Gerhardtintroduces a freshwater biomonitor that can be used to detect water quality deteriorations by the responses of different indicator species, including pollution-sensitive gammarids which are naturally present in the Selenga-Baikal system.
The papers presented in this book are manuscripts present the views of the authors and have not been edited stylistically or content-wise. They range from consolidated findings to preliminary results of ongoing studies and future perspectives for research. Despite these differences, the collection of papers in this book constitutes a unique documentation of the current state of scientific knowledge on water issues in the Selenga-Baikal Basin – in particular because some of the findings presented here have previously not been published in English. Finally, the motivation of scientists representing several countries and disciplines to participate in the Bringing Together Selenga Baikal Research conference and to contribute a full paper to these proceedings demonstrate that there is a strong determination in the scientific community to share results and cooperate in order to come to a better understanding of water-related challenges in the Selenga-Baikal Basin.
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I.
Large-scale modelling of water resources in the Selenga RiverBasin
MarcusMalsyandMartina Flörke
Center for EnvironmentalSystemsResearch,University of Kassel,Germany
Corresponding author: [email protected]
Abstract
The Selenga River Basin contributesmore than60% to Lake Baikalinflows. Beside changes in the hydro-climatic system water pollution is arising issue. At this, mostly agricultural and industrialactivities contribute to surface water pollution. Nevertheless, data and information about abstractions forsectoralwater use purposes are very scarce. In this study,spatial-explicit quantification ofconsumptivewater use for agricultural, industrial,and domestic uses in the Selenga River Basiniscalculated.These abstractions were computedwith the global water resources model WaterGAP3for the base year 2005 and the scenario year 2055underthe shared socio-economic pathwaySSP2 and the representative concentration pathway RCP 6.0. Climate simulations fromfive General Circulation Models (GCM), namely IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM, NorESM1-M, HadGEM2-ESand GFDL-ESM2M, were used. The results show an increase in all five sectors by 2055 with an extreme trend to higher water abstractions in the manufacturing sector,which is triggered by a strong economic development in the global scenario.In total the calculated water abstractionsincrease from163.54 Mio m³a-1in 2005to298.28 Mio m³a-1in 2055.
Introduction
Recent studies for Mongolia focussedon aspects of current and future changes in waterquantity(e.g.Batimaa 2006,Menzel et al. 2008,Malsy et al. 2012,Törnqvistet al. 2014) and/or water quality (e.g.Thorslundet al.2012,Hofmannet al.2013, Kartheet al.2014), but mostly did notpay attention to current and future waterusesfor anthropogenicpurposes.Batsukh et al.(2008)andMalsy et al.(2013)showed thatwateruse abstractions play an important role in northern Mongolia andare expected to increase in future due to urbanisation, increasing population,and rising industrial activities.These water abstractions affect both water quality(e.g.water used for ore washing in mining)as well as water quantity. At this,waterwithdrawalsare highest in the miningsector followed by households and livestock. In this study,theintegratedlarge-scale hydrological, water use,and water quality model WaterGAP3 (Alcamo et al. 2003, Döllet al.2003, aus der Beeket al.2010, Flörkeet al.2012, Flörkeet al.2013) is used to simulate current (2005) and future (2055)sectoralwaterconsumptive usesfor livestock, irrigation, manufacturing, thermal electricity production,as well as domestic and small businesses purposesto quantify current and future impacts on water resources in the Selenga River Basin.
Model and Data
The WaterGAP3 model(Verzano 2009)is afurtherdevelopment of WaterGAP2 (Alcamoet al.2003) and is based on a fivebyfivearc minutes grid (~6x9km) with daily internal time steps.For each grid cell,a water balance is calculated under consideration of climate time series and physical geographic data,e.g.,land coverandsoil texture. Furthermore, sectoral water uses are computed for agricultural (irrigation,andlivestock), manufacturing industry, thermalelectricityproduction, and domestic and small business purposes (aus der Beek et al. 2010,Flörkeet al.2012,Flörke et al. 2013). At first,water abstractions for the sectorslivestock, irrigation, manufacturing, thermal electricity production as well as domestic and small business were computedusing thesocio-economic and energy-related drivers followingtheShared Socio-economic Pathway(SSP) 2(van Vuuren et al. 2011, O’Neill et al. 2014)and fed into the hydrological model.Afterwards,hydrological fields,such as evapotranspiration,were simulated for current and future climate conditions. For this purpose, data fromthe general circulation modelsIPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM,HadGEM2-ES, GFDL-ESM2M, and NorESM1-M, driven bythe Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 6.0, were used.
Results andDiscussion
Figure1: Waterconsumptionin the Selenga-Baikal River basin for the base year 2005
Thewateruse sectors (cf. Fig. 1) show a diverse picture for the Selenga-Baikal Riverbasin.Thedomestic sectorhasthehighestabstractionssoutheast ofLake Baikal, while the south-western part showssmall, but area-covering abstractions. Manufacturing abstractions focus on cities and are therefore less denselyspread,butfeature generally higher abstractions. Water use for livestock is distributed throughout the entire riverbasinwith higher abstractions especially in the Mongolian part of the river basin. However,theamount oflivestockwater consumptionisgenerallyinlowercategories. Water abstractionsforirrigation are clustered in the central partwithhighabstractionsin the Dzhida, and Kharaa sub-basins.This is evenmore pronouncedfor thermal electricity production,which occursonlyin a few places butfeaturesvery highlocalwater consumption.For a detailed description of the Selenga River basin and its sub-basins see Karthe et al. 2014.
Figure2: Waterconsumptionin the Selenga-Selenga Baikal River basin for thescenarioyear 2055
Future waterconsumption(cf. Fig.2) showsanincrease in the south western part,particularly for manufacturing but alsoforthedomestic sector.Spatial patterns remain the same for livestock, irrigation,and electricity productionsectors.Manufacturingincreases in the sub-basins of Uda and KhilokRiver. This is also mirrored in total and relative sectoral contributions to total waterconsumption(cf.Table1).Hereby, manufacturing rises from 9.21Mio.m³a-1to 121.27Mio.m³a-1in 2055witharelativesectoralcontributionrising from 5.6% to 40.7%.This increase in manufacturing water consumption is mainly triggered by arapid increase of theGross Value Added (GVA)till 2055inSSP2(O’Neill et al. 2014), which is a main driver of the manufacturing sector (cf. Flörkeet al2013).According to this highriseinthemanufacturingsector,all other sectoral sharesdecrease in2055,butneverthelessalsoshowan increase ofwaterconsumptionin absolute terms(cf. Table 1).
Considering otherwater use studiesofBatsukh et al. 2008,and Malsy et al. 2013,it is difficult to make a comparison as both estimated thewater uses forentireMongolia,whilein this study just the Selenga River Basin was examined.To our knowledge,there are norecent estimations of water consumptioninthe Russian part of the Selenga River Basin.Furthermore, this study focusses on water consumptionas opposed towater withdrawals,which are the basis of Batsukh et al. 2008.However, as the Selenga River Basin is themain river basin in Mongolia and features most of the available water resources,a relativecomparisonto Batsukh et al 2008 is possible. They estimated for 2005/2006 the highest sectoral water abstractions for mining industry, followed by hydro-power plants, drinking water supply,and livestock with an overall water use of 433.78Mio. m³.Malsy et al. 2013 estimated 800 Mio m³ water withdrawals for 2005,which is mainly driven by much larger abstractions for electricity production and irrigation compared to Batsukh et al. 2008.
Year
Domestic
Manufacturing
Irrigation
Livestock
Electricity Production
2005
39.95
9.21
73.49
27.97
12.92
2055
43.32
121.27
84.38
29.38
19.93
Year
Domestic
Manufacturing
Irrigation
Livestock
Electricity Production
2005
24.4
5.6
44.9
17.1
7.9
2055
14.5
40.7
28.3
9.8
6.7
Table1: Comparison of sectoral water consumption [Mio. m³*a-1] (top) and [%] (bottom)(base year 2005 - scenario 2055)
The Korean Environment Institute (KEI2008) estimated919 Mio m³ of water withdrawals inthe Selenge River Basinfor the year 2004with anabstractionfrom surface watersof 70%.After utilisation,660.0 Mio m³ where returned tothe river network, which leadsto a water consumption of 258.4 Mio m³.In terms ofthesectoral sharesofwater consumption,KEI (2008) reportsthe highest water consumptionin the agricultural sector with 123.7 Mio m³, followed byinindustry with46Miom³andby 30.9 Mio m³ for housing and communal services.57.8 Mio m³water consumption in the"other" sectorisunfortunatelynot explainedinmore detail.Priess et al. 2011 reported an increasing competition for water between thewater usesectors in the KharaaRiver.Furthermore, theagricultural sector,and hence theuse of scarce water resources,is expected togrowsignificantly,“motivated by subsidised water fees,irrigation equipment and cheap loans”(Hantulga2009citedin Priess et al 2011).Generally,high losses fromleakages ofaround50%in piped water systems can be observed(Scharaw & Westerhoff 2011), whichis partlymirrored bylargeper-capita values ofdailydomestic water useinurbanized areas compared tomuch lower values inger districts and local herders (Batsukh et al. 2008).
Figure 3: Modelled water availability for baseline time period 1971 - 2000 (left) and change to scenario period 2041-2070 (respectively GCM mean)
Currentmean annualwater availability(WA)(cf. Fig. 3) showslarge parts with low waterresources,especially in thesouthernTuul catchment.Furthermore,also theOrkhon, Ider, Chulut, Delgermöron, Eg,Uda,and Khilok sub-basinsfeature wide areas with less than 50 mm mean annual water availability.The highest water availability above 500 mma-1canbe found in the Upper Angara river basinand atthesouth-westernshoreof LakeBaikal with a maximum water availability of 890 mma-1.Spatially,thesebaseline simulations (GCM mean, 1971-2000)show a high accordance compared with simulations conducted with the reanalysis WATCH forcing data (seeKartheet al. 2014).However, recent studiesreportedan overestimation of GCM baselines comparedtoreanalysis data (e.g. Malsyet al.2012, Törnqvistet al.2014).Thisaspectwasbeyond the scope of this studybutmight affect the total amount of available water resourcesleading to even lower available water resources.Future conditionsdepictan increasing trend till 2055 for theChikol, and Khilok headwater, theupper Angara,and the Turka River.River basins with decreasing water availability can befound,e.g.Chuluut,Ider, Delgermöron and Eg river basin, but are overall less densethan river basins with increasing or stagnating WA.The mean annualWAfor the entire Selenga River Basin is109mm in 2005 andrises to 124 mm in 2055, also the maximum value increases to 975 mm.According toTörnqvistet al. (2014), the temperature has been risen in the Selenga River Basin between 1938 and 2009 twice as much than the global average with decreasing inter-annual runoff variability, which points to permafrost thawing and therefore higher soil storage volumes.
Conclusions and Outlook
Generally,the wateruse projections showan increase of consumptivewateruses by 2055 of 82.4% compared to 2005, particularly in the manufacturing sector.Furthermore, the manufacturing and domestic sectors spread spatially in thesouth western partof the SelengaRiverBasinand inthe sub-basinsaround Ulan-Ude. Compared with Batsukh etal. 2008 and Malsy et al. 2013,mining plays an important role as water user but couldnot be included in this study as no data was available for the Russian part of the basin. At this, alsolarge-scaleimpacts on waterqualityby mining,e.g., heavy metals andtotal dissolved solids,should be examined spatially explicit.Water availability showsan increasing trend in the northern part of the basin around Lake Baikal. A decreasing trend could be derivedin the most western parts of the basin.As Permafrost melting is not includedin this modellingstudyeffectsoccurringdue topermafrostthawingand their impacts onthe water cyclecouldnot be examined in this study,though theyplay a major roledue toincreasing soil storage water volume(cf.Menzelet al.2008,Törnqvistet al.2014).As Törnqvistet al. (2014)showed for water availability,futureimpacts on water uses should alsobe studiedfor all SSP and RCP combinations to get the full range of future projections.
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Review of Long-term Satellite Data Series on Mongolia for the Study of Land Cover and Land Use
Martin Kappas†,Tsolmon Renchin‡, Selenge Munkhbayar‡,Oyudari Vova†‡,Jan Degener†
†Institute of Geography, Georg-August University Goettingen, Department of Cartography, GIS and Remote Sensing,Goettingen, Germany(Email: [email protected])
‡NUM-ITC-UNESCO Remote Sensing and Space Science laboratory, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia(Email: [email protected])
Abstract
The paperprovides a short review about the availability of long-termremote sensingdata time series over Mongolia. Further it focuses on remote sensing products that could be used for different ecological applications. Main focus is the availability of data time series for detection and assessment of Land Use / Land Cover change. The need of regional land data products is explained and their importance as input for Land Change models (LCM’s) is highlighted. Additionally various operational applications over Mongolia based on satellite remote sensing data are presented.
Keywords–Long-term satellite data,operational remote sensing over Mongolia, remote sensing applications
Introduction
Remote sensingdataaresome of the most effectiveinput dataforLand Change Models (LCM’s)[1]. In particular, multispectral and hyperspectral space-borneand airbornedataare widely used to studychanges in land use and land cover. Furtherdifferent natural and anthropogenic processes includingfire detection, snow mapping, and grassland / rangeland vulnerability are mapped and evaluated by remote sensing data.
Generally spoken there is a need for“Regional Land Data Products for Energy Budget and Water Cycle Trends and Processes in the future …” (Source: ISLSCP: Int. Satellite Land-Surface Climatology Project; 2009). The major task is to produce consistent research quality data sets complete with error descriptions of the Earth's energy budget and water cycle and their variability and trends on interannual to decadal time scales, and for use inclimate system analysis and model development and validation.Therefore long-term satellite data are importantinput datafor Land Change Models (LCM’s) thatlink patterns and processes across multiple scales.The output of these LCM’s is severely dependent on the quality of the input data (mostly remotely sensed data). WhereuponLand Cover / Land Use Change (LCLUC)is an interdisciplinary scientific theme within the ultimate vision isto develop the capability for periodic global inventories of land use and land cover from space, to develop the scientific understanding and models necessary to simulate the processes taking place, and to evaluate the consequences of observed and predicted changes. Therefore the next chapter takes a look on available satellite missions and their significance for broad environmental oriented applications over Mongolia.
Land Use / Land Cover relevant missions
The main missions to analyze land use and land cover from space can be separated into systematic and exploratory missions (see figure 1). Figure 1 shows a few examples of both groups.The systematic observations deal with observations of key earth system interactions whereas the exploratory missions focus on specific earth system processes (e.g. land degradation) and specific parameters (e.g. NDVI / LAI dynamics, drought indices, dzud events). Also new technology development belongs to the exploratory missions. Well known missions are the Landsat mission, the AVHRR (Advaced Very High resolution radiometer) or the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) mission whichis a key instrument aboard the Terra (originally known as EOS AM-1) and Aqua (originally knownas EOS PM-1).Terra's orbit around the Earth is timed so that it passes from north to south across the equator in the morning, while Aqua passes south to north over the equator in the afternoon. Terra MODIS and Aqua MODIS are viewing the entire Earth's surface every 1 to 2 days, acquiring data in 36 spectral bands.These data will improve our understanding of global dynamics and processes occurring on the land. MODIS, AVHRR and SPOT Vegetation dataareplaying a vital role in the development of validated, global, interactive Earth system models able to predict global change accurately enough to assist policy makers in making sound decisions concerningthe protection of our environment.
Figure 1.Examples of Systematic and Exploratory missions relevant over Mongolia (Source: Garic Gutman, oral presentation 2014 Ulaanbaatar).
Thementioned satellite data from AVHRR, MODIS and SPOT Vegetation provide coarse resolution information about the earthsurface.The pixel resolution in correspondence to the data product varies between 250m (MODIS) to 1, 4 or 8 km (SPOT, AVHRR). AVHRR offers the longest available satellite based data set on earth. The important AVHRR based NDVI3g and LAI3g data sets are available for entire Mongolia with high product continuity. These products are delivered with elaborated documentation and product validation [2]. Figure 2 gives an overview of current available satellite data sets over Mongolia.
Figure 2:Most important satellite missions over Mongolia.In future many more sensors for ecosystem analysis like Sentinel, EnMAP and others will be available. Sentinel 2a was just launched in June 2015 and Sentinel 2b will follow in 2016.
Land Monitoring at Moderate Resolution
Moderate spatial resolution sensors (100–300 m) such as MODIS/MERIS with frequent (daily to weekly) or coarse resolution sensors (1000 m) such as NOAA AVHRR, SPOT Vegetation or SEASAT with their sensitive and unbiased observations of vegetation properties such as the Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR) or Leaf Area Index (LAI) deliver fundamental indicators for environmental assessments and have already been recognized as ‘Essential Climate Variables’ (ECV’s) by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). These measurements derive quantitative information about the environment and are useful for assessments. Indicators such as FAPAR or LAI replace dimensionless indices such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)[3, 4].These data sets are completely available over Mongolia, but they need intensive validation by crosschecking with ground truth data.
Landsat satellite family presents the most important information resource in the lower moderate resolution of 30m pixel size for regional studies.Landsat data are accessible free of charge at USGSand theLandsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM;Landsat-8waslaunched Feb 11, 2013) is an important information source for further environmental studies over Mongolia. ButLandsat observationsare alsoinsufficientand international cooperation is neededto fill the gaps to provide continuous data series. A challengingapproach is the WELD project (Web-enabled Landsat data) that is using all clear pixels by compositing to derive a cloudless mosaic over the landscape.
Figure 3:Web-enabled Landsat data project (WELD), see:http://landsat.usgs.gov/WELD.php
The Landsat data are available from 1972 (L1) up to date. Our review could discover 14433 Landsat images in the archive (status: August 2014) with a cloud cover (<10%) over Mongolia. A general problem is the image size of (185x185 km) that no consistent mosaic for Mongolia is producible because of a 16 days repetition cycle to monitor the same area. Cloud cover, atmospheric influences, sun angle changes and many other influences require comprehensive calibrations. Therefore Landsat data are better for regional studies than for entire Mongolia. According to the specific Landsat mission we have different tiling over Mongolia (varies between 23-26 tiles; e.g. WGS-2 Path:130/Row28; Landsat 8:13; Landsat 7:15; Landsat 4-5 TM: 77; Landsat 4-5 MSS: 0; Landsat 1-3 MSS (WMS-1): 0; total tilling: 105). The Landsat data are freely available underhttp://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/.
Figure 4 shows an example of Land cover map derived from satellite data and ground truth data along a transect over Mongolia (Xilin Gol Transect).
Figure 4.Example of remote sensing based Land Cover Map over Mongolia. Source: Yunfeng Hu, Yifang Ban, Qian Zhang; Department of Urban Planning & Environment Royal Institute of Technology Stockholm, Sweden 2008
Examples of operational use of satellite data over Mongolia
A Satellite Observation System is available since 1970, where Mongolia has received information and images from the Polar orbit satellites. A digital information station was installed during 1986 -1988. An Arc/INFO GIS package on Sun Sparc Workstation was installed in 1994. Cooperation agreement with NASA was signed in 1993 to use satellite SEASTAR. With the satellite-aided observation, the monitoring of forest fires and bushfires became possible. Since 2007, Mongolia has been receiving satellite images from MODIS which increased monitoring quality significantly. Based on MODIS data Mongolia developed several operational monitoring tools that deal as an information source for decision making. One important operational tool is the Mongolia Livestock Early Warning System (Mongolia LEWS).During the period from 1999 to 2002, Mongolia experienced a series of droughts and severe winters thatdiminishedlivestock numbers by approximately 30% countrywide. In the Gobi region, livestock mortality reached as much as 50%.Due to these extremeeventsand its impact on pastoral livelihoods, the USAID mission in Mongolia and the Global Livestock-CRSP (GL-CRSP) initiated the Gobi Forage program with the goal of transferring Livestock Early Warning System (LEWS) technology to Mongolia. The Livestock Early Warning System technology combines near real-time weather, computer modeling, and satellite imagery to monitor and forecast livestock forage conditions so that pastoralists and other decision makersgetinformation for timely decision making.Three major activities have been conducted including: 1) infusion of forage monitoring technology to assess regional forage quantity; 2) development of nutritional profiling technology to assess forage quality, and 3) information delivery and outreach(source:http://glews.tamu.edu/mongolia/pagesmith/2). Figure 5 shows an example of the operational monitoring system for a 60 day forage forecast.
Figure 5.Example of a 60 day forecast total forage over Mongolia based on Mongolia-LEWS operational system.(Source:http://www.mongolialews.net/images/filecabinet/forage-maps//2015-05-31/2015-05-31-en-go-mo-bg-forage-deviation-60day.jpg)
On the base of the Mongolia-LEWS many other applications are possible. The Mongolia-LEWS presents a good example of operational use of long-term satellite data available over Mongolia. Based on MODIS data not onlyforecasts of amount and quality of pastures in Mongolia are possible but also other important questions can be solved with the help of this operational system. Another important issue is the derivation of a Dzud-Index for better adaptation to severe winter conditions. A snow index map for entire Mongolia is also available.
Figure 5.Derivation of a Dzud-Index based on MODIS stellite data and additional meteorological data from Mongolia-LEWS.
Conclusion
Long-term satellite data over Mongolia offer many possibilities to developecosystem assessments and can be used to create operational systems for many different applications. Looking back on 40 years research about biomass with Remote Sensing and ground truth data, estimates of pasture biomass amount for livestock fodder and pasture carrying capacity over whole territory of Mongolia is possible. In average the following values for spring potential biomass can be derived from this research: 27-50 gm2in the forest steppe, 15-33 gm2in the steppe, 5-13 gm2in the Altai Mountains and 3-6 gm2
