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- Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
- Kategorie: Wissenschaft und neue Technologien
- Sprache: Englisch
Now that Trump has turned the United States into a global climate outcast, will China take the lead in saving our planet from environmental catastrophe? Many signs point to yes. China, the world's largest carbon emitter, is leading a global clean energy revolution, phasing out coal consumption and leading the development of a global system of green finance. But as leading China environmental expert Barbara Finamore explains, it is anything but easy. The fundamental economic and political challenges that China faces in addressing its domestic environmental crisis threaten to derail its low-carbon energy transition. Yet there is reason for hope. China's leaders understand that transforming the world's second largest economy from one dependent on highly polluting heavy industry to one focused on clean energy, services and innovation is essential, not only to the future of the planet, but to China's own prosperity.
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Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2018
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Contents
Cover
Dedication
Copyright
Acknowledgments
Abbreviations
Introduction: China –The New Climate Torchbearer?
Notes
1 China’s Climate Diplomacy
China and the Copenhagen Accord
The Paris Agreement turnaround
What changed between Copenhagen and Paris?
Notes
2 Dethroning Old King Coal
China’s war on coal
Challenges
Notes
3 Catalyzing the Clean Energy Revolution
China’s impact on the global clean energy revolution
Integrating renewables into China’s domestic market
Notes
4 Jumpstarting the Electric Vehicle Industry
Notes
5 Greening China’s Financial System Epilogue: China in the Driving Seat
Notes
Further Reading
End User License Agreement
Guide
Cover
Table of Contents
Begin Reading
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This book is dedicated to the memory of my beloved parents, Roy Paul Finamore and Marie Gorman Finamore
Will China Save the Planet?
Barbara Finamore
polity
Copyright © Barbara Finamore 2018
The right of Barbara Finamore to be identified as Author of this Work has been asserted in accordance with the UK Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
First published in 2018 by Polity Press
Polity Press65 Bridge StreetCambridge CB2 1UR, UK
Polity Press101 Station LandingSuite 300Medford, MA 02155, USA
All rights reserved. Except for the quotation of short passages for the purpose of criticism and review, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher.
ISBN-13: 978-1-5095-3266-7
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication DataNames: Finamore, Barbara, author.Title: Will China save the planet? / Barbara Finamore.Description: Cambridge, UK ; Medford, MA, USA : Polity, 2018. | Series: Environmental futures | Includes bibliographical references and index.Identifiers: LCCN 2018021605 (print) | LCCN 2018037960 (ebook) | ISBN 9781509532667 (Epub) | ISBN 9781509532636 (hardback) | ISBN 9781509532643 (pbk.)Subjects: LCSH: Environmental policy--China. | Clean energy--China. | Energy policy--Environmental aspects--China. | China--Environmental conditions.Classification: LCC GE190.C6 (ebook) | LCC GE190.C6 F56 2018 (print) | DDC 363.7/05610951--dc23LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2018021605
The publisher has used its best endeavors to ensure that the URLs for external websites referred to in this book are correct and active at the time of going to press. However, the publisher has no responsibility for the websites and can make no guarantee that a site will remain live or that the content is or will remain appropriate.
Every effort has been made to trace all copyright holders, but if any have been overlooked the publisher will be pleased to include any necessary credits in any subsequent reprint or edition.
For further information on Polity, visit our website: politybooks.com
Acknowledgments
I would first like to thank my editor at Polity Press, Louise Knight, who persuaded me to write this book, and my extraordinarily helpful assistant editor Nekane Tanaka Galdos.
I am deeply indebted to the Natural Resources Defense Council’s leadership, particularly its president Rhea Suh, as well as Susan Casey-Lefkowitz and Jake Schmidt, all of whom gave me the time I needed; and to NRDC’s members and supporters, who made this project possible. Bob Deans, Edwin Chen, and Jenny Powers provided essential guidance and support. But I could never have written this book without the inspiration of John Adams, Tom Cochran, and Jacob Scherr, who brought me to NRDC in 1981; of Frances Beinecke, who opened our Beijing office; and of everyone who has been a part of our dedicated China team for nearly a quarter of a century.
Many thanks to the colleagues who took time to review the manuscript and provide invaluable comments: Alvin Lin, Fang Jian, Han Chen, Freda Fung, Jingjing Qian, and Mona Yew. Lynne Curry and several anonymous reviewers provided crucial feedback.
Many other colleagues contributed key research or insights: Lauren Sidner, Yang Fuqiang, Wang Wanxing, Wang Yan, Wu Qi, Zhang Xiya, Hyoungmi Kim, Kevin Hsu, Brian Bartholomew, Noah Lerner, Collin Smith, Charlotte Steiner, and Winslow Robertson. I would also like to acknowledge the contributions of many other colleagues, including Irina Petrova, Lauren Gruber, Lisa Goffredi, Valerie Keane, Alex Liu, Apurva Muchhala, and Hiawatha Barno.
No words can express my profound gratitude to friends and family for their unstinting support, especially my children Rebecca, Patrick, and Michael Young; my daughter-in-law Megan Wolf Young; and my siblings Marie, Roy, and Michael Finamore. Most of all, I wish to thank my beloved husband of 35 years, Stephen Young, who first brought me to China in 1990.
Abbreviations
ACEF
All-China Environment Federation
BNEF
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
BRI
Belt and Road Initiative
BTH
Beijing/Tianjin/Hebei
CAFE
Corporate Average Fuel Economy
CERC
Clean Energy Research Center (US–China)
CO
2
carbon dioxide
DR
demand response
EPL
Environmental Protection Law
ESG
environmental, social, and governance
EV
electric vehicle
FCV
fuel cell vehicle
FIT
feed-in tariff
FON
Friends of Nature
GDP
gross domestic product
GEI
Global Environmental Institute
GFSG
G20 Green Finance Study Group
GHG
greenhouse gas
GW
gigawatt
ICE
internal combustion engine
IEA
International Energy Agency
IPCC
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPE
Institute of Public & Environmental Affairs
kWh
kilowatt hour
LEED
Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design
MEE
Ministry of Ecology and Environment
MFA
Ministry of Foreign Affairs
MW
megawatt
NDC
Nationally Determined Contribution
NDRC
National Development and Reform Commission
NEA
National Energy Administration
NEV
new energy vehicle
NGO
nongovernmental organization
NOx
nitrogen oxides
NRDC
Natural Resources Defense Council
NREL
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
PM 2.5
fine particulate matter with diameters of 2.5 micrometers and smaller
PM 10
large particulate matter with diameters of 10 micrometers or smaller
PRD
Pearl River Delta
PV
photovoltaic
RMB
Renminbi
RPS
Renewable Portfolio Standards
SEPA
State Environmental Protection Administration
SO
2
sulfur dioxide
SPC
State Planning Commission
TW
terawatt
UHV
ultra-high voltage
WTO
World Trade Organization
YRD
Yangtze River Delta
ZEV
zero emission vehicle
Introduction: China – The New Climate Torchbearer?
Donald Trump famously called climate change a “hoax” perpetrated by the Chinese to make US manufacturing noncompetitive. But the evidence is staring us in the face: climate change is real and it is happening now. How else can we explain a 50-fold increase since 1980 in the number of places experiencing life-threatening or extreme heat; a surge in catastrophic hurricanes, flooding, and raging wildfires; North Pole temperatures that have soared 50 degrees Fahrenheit above normal; and an iceberg weighing one trillion tons breaking off Antarctica?
Every major scientific organization in the world agrees that the Earth’s climate is warming to dangerous levels and that humans are to blame. According to the World Meteorological Organization, current concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere correspond to a climate last occurring roughly 4 million years ago – a time when melting ice sheets caused sea levels to rise 60 feet higher than they are today.1 Unless we act quickly and forcefully to drive down greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, we will soon reach a climate tipping point, where disastrous consequences will harm every aspect of our life on Earth.
China’s own climate scientists warn that it will face more frequent extreme weather events, glacier retreats, sea level rise higher than the world average, flooding, droughts, and food insecurity. Globally, experts predict that climate change will push an estimated 100 million people back into poverty by 2030,2 and cause an additional 250,000 premature deaths each year between 2030 and 2050 from malnutrition, malaria, diarrhea, and heat stress.3 Rising sea levels may render more than 1,000 low-lying tropical islands “uninhabitable” by the middle of the century – or even earlier.4 The US Department of Defense called the impacts of climate change “threat multipliers that will aggravate stressors abroad such as poverty, environmental degradation, political instability and social tensions – conditions that can enable terrorist activity and other forms of violence.”5
In the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement, the world’s first truly global climate deal, nearly 200 countries agreed that the threat of climate change is “urgent and potentially irreversible” and can only be addressed through deep reductions in global carbon emissions. The deal aims to keep the rise in global average temperature to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and, if possible, under 1.5 degrees. The participating countries resolved to peak global greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible, with rapid reductions thereafter, and to achieve net zero GHG emissions in the second half of this century. The Paris Agreement sends a clear market signal that the global economy is transitioning away from dirty fossil fuels toward a low-carbon future powered by clean energy, creating the largest new market opportunity of the twenty-first century.
As a vitally important first step, every country signed up to the Agreement submitted a pledge detailing how it will cut its GHG emissions. When taken together, however, current pledges will deliver at most only one-third of what is needed to protect us from the worst impacts of climate change. To address the limitations of this bottom-up approach, the accord contains a mechanism designed to ensure that countries regularly strengthen their commitments over time. The Agreement also provides support for developing countries, including small island states and others that are most vulnerable, in their efforts to reach their climate goals. It also establishes a more robust transparency framework for reporting each country’s progress, though many of the operating rules have been left to future negotiations.
The United States and China are by far the two largest emitters of GHGs. Together, they are responsible for over 40 percent of global CO2 emissions, though China’s per capita emissions are still less than half those of the United States. Despite longstanding tensions between the two countries on a broad range of issues, Presidents Barack Obama and Xi Jinping presided over a remarkable era of bilateral climate cooperation. This extraordinary partnership played a critical role in building momentum for the Paris Agreement and influencing the remarkable speed with which it entered into force. Both leaders recognized that accelerating the transition to a green, low-carbon, and climate-resilient economy is not only crucial to addressing one of the greatest threats facing humanity, but is also in each country’s own self-interest.
Yet despite support for the Paris Agreement from the overwhelming majority of US businesses and citizens, President Donald Trump has turned the United States into a global climate pariah. He has announced plans to withdraw America from the Agreement in 2020, slashed funding for US climate programs, attempted to dismantle the US Clean Power Plan, and promoted dirty fossil fuel development on US lands and in US waters. Furthermore, Trump muzzled US climate scientists and purged references to climate change risks from government websites and the US National Security Strategy. In July 2017, Trump stood alone at the annual G20 summit as the other 19 world leaders reaffirmed their strong commitment to the Paris Agreement and declared it to be “irreversible.” By abandoning the Paris Agreement, the United States has become the only country in the world to say “no” to the massive economic opportunities that accompany the transition to a clean energy future. Even Nicaragua and Syria, the only two original holdouts to the Agreement, have now signed on. Although Trump campaigned on a pledge to put “America First,” his reckless move effectively puts America last.
Many have noted that with Trump’s decision to pull out of the Paris Agreement, the United States is retreating from its global role in fighting climate change, while China is stepping forward. It was only a few years ago that China seemed the unlikeliest of climate action standard-bearers. After decades of rapid growth, the country held the distinction of being responsible for more than one-quarter of all global carbon emissions – more than the United States and the European Union combined. So mammoth was the nation’s carbon footprint, in fact, that it was often cited by defenders of the fossil fuel status quo as a rationale for American inaction. Why should we break our backs reducing our emissions, people would ask, when China is just going to keep on burning coal like crazy and warming the planet anyway?
But the dramatic measures taken by China in recent years to cut emissions, reduce its reliance on coal, and invest in renewables have turned this line of thinking on its head. It now appears that China – while still leading the world in both coal consumption and carbon emissions – is also leading the way forward to the clean energy future. That said, it also faces major challenges that some believe may be insurmountable.
In the December 2009 Copenhagen climate negotiations, China took much of the blame for the failure of participants to reach a legally binding climate agreement. Yet just a few years after the Copenhagen summit, President Xi Jinping not only played a crucial role in the Paris climate deal, but later called the Paris Agreement a “milestone in the history of climate governance” that should not be derailed. In a major speech to the National People’s Congress in fall 2017 to report on his first five years in office, Xi went even further, clearly asserting China’s climate leadership: “We will get actively involved in global environmental governance and fulfill our emissions reductions . . . Taking a driving seat in international cooperation to respond to climate change, China has become an important participant, contributor, and torchbearer in the global endeavor for ecological civilization.”6
How did China get to this point? What brought about this evolution from climate change resister to a forceful advocate of global climate governance? Can it overcome the fundamental obstacles hindering its decarbonization efforts? As it greens its own economy, is China in danger of outsourcing its carbon emissions to other countries? How is this clean energy revolution being driven, and what role can other countries play? This book seeks to shed some light on those questions and outline the implications for the United States and the rest of the world of China’s dynamic new engagement on this critical issue.
Notes
1
. World Meteorological Organization,
Greenhouse Gas Bulletin
. October 30, 2017.
2
. World Bank Group, “Rapid, Climate-Informed Development Needed to Keep Climate Change from Pushing More than 100 Million People into Poverty by 2030.” World Bank. November 8, 2015.
3
. World Health Organization, “Climate Change and Health Fact Sheet.” February 1, 2018.
4
. Mooney, Chris and Brady Dennis, “The Military Paid for a Study on Sea Level Rise. The Results Were Scary.”
Washington Post
, April 25, 2018.
5
.
Quadrennial Defense Review 2014.
US Department of Defense. 2014.
6
.
China Daily
, “Full Text of Xi Jinping’s Report at 19th CPC National Congress.”
Chinadaily.com.cn
. November 4, 2017.
