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- Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
- Kategorie: Fachliteratur
- Sprache: Englisch
Discover what demographics can tell us about the economy, markets, and the future In Demographics Unravelled, renowned Macro-Demographics expert Amlan Roy delivers an insightful and timely exploration of the impact that "people characteristics" have on national economies. Considering factors like gender, race, migrant status, family background, and education, the author delves deeply into a subject that drives market behavior and economic variables, including growth, debt, inflation, employment, and productivity. These have national and international policy implications. In this one-of-a-kind book, you'll discover: * Why the study of demographics is the hidden key to understanding economic growth, asset prices, and capital flows * How to use detailed demographics to forecast future scenarios in economics, socioeconomics, geopolitics, and the environment * The short-, medium-, and long-term effects of consumer and worker behavior * How understanding demographics is key to understanding health, pensions, migration, sustainability and social policies. It is intimately linked to the Sustainable Development Goals of the UN--Gender, Climate, Poverty and Inequality Perfect for institutional investors, insurance professionals, economists, and business leaders, Demographics Unravelled will also earn a place in the libraries of academics and students studying a variety of economic disciplines and seeking a one-stop and in-depth discussion of demographics-driven macroeconomic effects.
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Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2021
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Table of Contents
Cover
Title Page
Copyright
Dedication
About the Author
Acknowledgements
Selected Abbreviations
Preface
Notes
Chapter 1: Introduction
1.1 Recasting Demographics
1.2 Effects and Implications of Demographics
Notes
Chapter 2: Core Data: Past, Present, and Future
2.1 Economic History and the History of Global Population Trends
2.2 Core Demographic Variables: Data, Analysis, and Some Observations
2.3 The Role of Migration
2.4 Urbanisation
2.5 Small Nation-States: Demographics
2.6 Changing Longevity—Metrics Need Changing
2.7 Changing Social and Individual Behaviour
2.8 Multiple Generations
2.9 Conclusion
Notes
Chapter 3: Demographics and Macroeconomics
3.1 Demographics and Economic Growth
3.2 The “Demographic Dividend” and GDP per Capita Growth
3.3 Inflation
3.4 Debt, Deficits, and Fiscal Sustainability
3.5 Demographics, Monetary Policy, and Interest Rates
3.6 Demographics and Unemployment
3.7 Demographics, Capital Flows, and Current Account
3.8 Conclusions
Notes
Chapter 4: Demographics and Asset Prices
4.1 Theories of Life-Cycle Consumption, Savings, and the Permanent Income Hypothesis
4.2 How Demographics Influences Equity Prices and Markets
4.3 Will There Be an Asset Market Meltdown When the Baby Boomers Retire?
4.4 Demographic Changes and Interest Rates (Bond Yields)
4.5 Demographics and Risk Premiums
4.6 Asset Holdings and Age
4.7 Demographics and Equity Sectors
4.8 Demographics and Real Estate
4.9 Demographics and Commodities
4.10 Conclusions
Notes
Chapter 5: Health and Longevity
5.1 Health Issues, Expenditures, and Measures
5.2 Longevity
5.3 Conclusions
Notes
Chapter 6: Pensions and Retirement
6.1 A Brief History of Social Security and Pensions
6.2 Evaluating Pension Systems: Indicators and Cross-Country Comparisons
6.3 Evaluating Age-Related Pension Expenditures Across Countries
6.4 Pensions and Pension Systems: The Experts
6.5 Pensions, Asset Allocation, Investments, and Capital Markets
6.6 Pensions and Corporate Finance/Equity Prices
6.7 The Future of Retirement and Conclusions
Notes
Chapter 7: Quality of Life, Gender, Governance and Sustainability
7.1 Utility Theory, Social Welfare, and Happiness
7.2 Quality of Life: Human Development Index (HDI)
7.3 Gender and Governance
7.4 Corruption and Transparency
7.5 Sustainability and Climate Change
7.6 Politics and Geopolitics
7.7 Conclusion
Notes
Chapter 8: Summary and Conclusions
Notes
Index
End User License Agreement
List of Tables
Chapter 2
Table 2.1 Changing age ranges and dependency ratios.
Table 2.2 Gender distribution changes by broad age group.
Table 2.3 Stock of foreign population by nationality (thousands).
Table 2.4 Native-born and foreign-born (employment and participation).
Table 2.5 Small countries' demographic differences.
Chapter 3
Table 3.1 US consumer expenditures by age: 2019 (expenditure shares).
Table 3.2 UK household expenditures by age of household reference person.
Table 3.3 Age-related spending (% of GDP): 2016–2070.
Chapter 6
Table 6.1 Average effective retirement age vs. normal retirement age: 2013–...
Table 6.2 Pension replacement rates: 2018.
Table 6.3 Gross pension wealth by earnings (males and females).
Table 6.4 Net pension wealth by earnings.
Table 6.5 Cash expenditures on public pensions.
Table 6.6 Public pensions as share of GDP: 2019–2070.
Table 6.7 Summary of the five-pillar pension system.
Table 6.8 Pension asset allocation trends: 2001–2020.
Table 6.9 DB-DC asset split: 2001–2020.
Table 6.10 Pension market size: 2020.
Chapter 7
Table 7.1 Human Development Index ranks: 2019.
Table 7.2 Gender Inequality Index.
Table 7.3 SDG index scores (select countries).
List of Illustrations
Chapter 2
Figure 2.1 World population level.
Figure 2.2 Annual population growth.
Figure 2.3a Median age (regions): 1950–2020.
Figure 2.3b Median age (G6): 1950–2020.
Figure 2.4a Life expectancy at birth (region).
Figure 2.4b Life expectancy at birth (G6).
Figure 2.5a Total fertility rates (region).
Figure 2.5b Total fertility rates (G6).
Figure 2.6a Old-age dependency ratios (regions).
Figure 2.6b Old-age dependency ratios (G6).
Figure 2.7 Gender ratios (regions): 1950–2020.
Figure 2.8a World 1980 (age structure).
Figure 2.8b World 2020 (age structure).
Figure 2.9 Evolution of the US age structure: 1980–2020.
Figure 2.10 Evolution of Japan's age structure: 1980–2020.
Figure 2.11a Net number of migrants (thousands).
Figure 2.11b Net migration rate per thousand.
Figure 2.12 Net migrants (share of population change).
Figure 2.13a Japan: net migration and natural increase (thousands).
Figure 2.13b Germany: net migration and natural increase (thousands).
Figure 2.13c UK: net migration and natural increase (thousands).
Figure 2.13d US: net migration and natural increase (thousands).
Figure 2.14 Permanent migration flows into OECD countries: 2019 (percentage ...
Figure 2.15 Foreign-born population in OECD and Europe: 2000–2019.
Figure 2.16a Share of urban population (%).
Figure 2.16b Share of urban population (G6).
Figure 2.17 Population density.
Figure 2.18 Life expectancy at ages 65 and 80.
Figure 2.19 Mean age at first marriage (years): England and Wales.
Figure 2.20 US median age at first marriage (years): 1950–2020.
Figure 2.21 Mean age of childbearing (G6).
Chapter 3
Figure 3.1a France GDP growth decomposition: 1951–2019. Annual percentages....
Figure 3.1b Germany GDP growth decomposition: 1951–2019. Annual percentages....
Figure 3.2a Italy GDP growth decomposition: 1951–2019. Annual percentages....
Figure 3.2b Japan GDP growth decomposition (1951–2019). Annual percentages....
Figure 3.3a UK GDP growth decomposition: 1951–2019. Annual percentages.
Figure 3.3b US GDP growth decomposition: 1951–2019. Annual percentages.
Figure 3.4a Female economic activity rates by age: 1990.
Figure 3.4b Female economic activity rates by age: 2019.
Figure 3.5a Male economic activity rates by age: 1990.
Figure 3.5b Male economic activity rates by age: 2019.
Figure 3.6 Average wage year-on-year changes (local currency basis): 2001–20...
Figure 3.7 Labour productivity growth: 1951–2019.
Figure 3.8 EU social protection expenditures (% of GDP): 2019.
Figure 3.9 Unemployment and youth unemployment (%): 2019.
Chapter 4
Figure 4.1 Typified life-cycle income/investment hypothesis.
Figure 4.2 Income and consumer expenditures by age (based on age of head of ...
Figure 4.3 Annual live births and when they turn 65: Japan and Germany post-...
Figure 4.4 Live births and cohorts: 1910–2001.
Figure 4.5 Short-term interest rates and the MY ratio: 1910–2001.
Figure 4.6 Equity premium and the MY Ratio: 1910–2001.
Figure 4.7 Variations in demographic ratios across countries.
Figure 4.8 US assets by age: Q4, 2020.
Figure 4.9 Assets by race: Q4, 2020.
Figure 4.10 Homeownership rates by age of head of household.
Chapter 5
Figure 5.1 Health expenditures (% of current GDP).
Figure 5.2 Health expenditure per capita (current prices, current purchasing...
Figure 5.3 Out-of-pocket health expenditures as a share of the total (%)....
Figure 5.4 Infant mortality rates: EM.
Figure 5.5 Under-five mortality per 1000 live births.
Figure 5.6 Median age: country/region variations.
Figure 5.7 Current health expenditure per capita (international PPP): 2018....
Figure 5.8 Hospital beds per thousand: 2017.
Figure 5.9 Increasing life expectancy at birth.
Figure 5.10 Life expectancy at age 60.
Figure 5.11 Life expectancy vs. healthy life expectancy at birth (years): 20...
Figure 5.12 Life expectancy at 60 vs. healthy life expectancy at 60 (years):...
Figure 5.13 Life expectancy at birth, world and regions: 1980–2040 (years)....
Figure 5.14 Life Expectancy at age 60, world and regions: 1980–2040 (years)....
Figure 5.15 Historical highest female life expectancies (years).
Chapter 6
Figure 6.1 Gender pension gap: 2015 or latest.
Figure 6.2 Poverty rates among older age groups and the total population....
Chapter 7
Figure 7.1 World Happiness Index 2021 score.
Guide
Cover
Table of Contents
Title Page
Copyrigt
Dedication
About the Author
Acknowledgements
Selected Abbreviations
Preface
Begin Reading
Index
End User License Agreement
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Praise for Demographics Unravelled
“This book is a fascinating marshalling of evidence about how demographic forces shape many of the pressing economic, social, and political problems that we confront today.”
—Tom Sargent, Nobel Prize Winner (2011); and Professor of Economics, New York University
“In this deep but highly accessible book, Amlan Roy draws upon his many years of experience to explain the many ways in which demography shapes the macroeconomy and financial markets. Students and market professionals will find Roy's analysis to be at once enlightening and engaging.”
—Narayana Kocherlakota, Former Minneapolis Fed President; and Professor, University of Rochester
“With the benefit of two decades of research into the many aspects of an aging global economy, Amlan Roy explains to us the profound implications of demography on virtually every aspect of our welfare. In clear, practical language, he analyzes and informs - we should all read it and thank him.”
—Zvi Bodie, Author of Worry-Free Investing; and Professor Emeritus, Boston University
“This book is a must-read for anyone working on the intersection of demographics, finance, and economics. There is a wealth of data, insight, and research presented in a concise package.”
—Tobias Adrian, Financial Counselor and Director, International Monetary Fund
“Roy's brilliant new book unifies the vast demographics literature across debt, gender, growth, inflation, asset prices, and beyond, gauging research on its ability to look below broad population aggregates to the finer groupings that really matter.”
—Giles Keating, Former Global Head, Credit Suisse Research; and Board Member, Bitcoin Suisse
“Amlan's holistic, systematic, and rational framework takes out the popular misconceptions about demographics and explains how it affects, inter alia, macroeconomic policy, asset prices, pensions and retirement decisions, and the overall quality of life. Highly recommended reading for academics, practitioners, and regulators.”
—Narayan Naik, Finance Professor, London Business School
“Amlan Roy has written a tour-de-force on the impact of demographics on economic growth and policy, pension design, and portfolio management. This book, from the global expert on demographics, is a must-read for investors, financial professionals, and policy makers.
—Arun Muralidhar, Co-founder, Mcube Investment Technologies, Pension Expert (3 books)
“Amlan has been pioneering the link between demographics and financial markets at least since our days together at Credit Suisse in London 20 years ago. The accumulated knowledge that Amlan has gathered throughout his career is collated for the first time in this ground-breaking book, along with all the painstaking data-driven evidence, charts, and trend analyses that built up his reputation as a top-notch applied financial economist over the years, crossing over geographies: a must-read for all professional investors, and a source of inspiration for academics.”
—Olivier Ledoit, Senior Research Associate, Department of Economics, University of Zurich
“Demographics remains one of the most important and under-appreciated areas of inquiry. This well-researched book provides a clear understanding of precisely how demographic data can serve as a crystal ball into the future. Carefully researched and very accessible, it is a must-read for anybody looking to understand what lies ahead for economy and society.”
—Ranjay Gulati, Harvard Business School, Paul Lawrence MBA, and Class of 1942 Professor
“Renowned pensions expert Amlan Roy treats us with his state-of-the-art insights on demographics. This wonderful book is a must-read for anyone keen on truly understanding the deep impact of demographics on finance, economics, and our lives.”
—Dirk Broeders, Professor of Pension Finance, Maastricht University, Netherlands
“As you step away from the noise of daily market fluctuations it is of paramount importance to consider how demographic changes will affect the long run macroenvironment and influence the risk/return prospects of financial assets. Amlan's book is a must-read for asset allocators and long-term investors.”
—Mirko Cardinale, Head of Investment Strategy, USS Investment Management, London
“This book is a must-read for economists and finance analysts, both academics and practitioners. The book is very well written by an expert on the subject of demographics (a mega trend) and dispels certain misconceptions.”
—Tom A. Fearnley, Investment Director, Norwegian Ministry of Finance, Asset Management
“Roy is uniquely equipped with the knowledge and insight required to understand the complex aspects of demographic dynamics. If this book will be widely read, there is hope we will cope better with demographic changes than we do today.”
—Theo Kocken, Founder, Cardano Group; and Professor of Risk Management, VU University, Netherlands
“Often overlooked, demographic factors are the hidden hand behind economics and asset prices. Dr. Roy provides valuable insights on how demographic factors should be incorporated into investment decisions by asset owners, particularly those in the life and pensions space.”
—Hemal Popat, Investment Actuary, Mercer Investments
“Understanding the far-reaching effects of demographics on economic activity and financial markets is vital, and there is no better guide than Amlan Roy; this book is an important resource for those who wish to understand the interactions in all their complexity.”
—Richard Lacaille, Global Head of ESG, State Street Corp; and Former Global CIO, SSGA
“Demography affects many facets of economic life, yet its influence is widely under-appreciated. Written by an acknowledged expert and based on a lifetime of study, Roy's book masterfully explains just why demography is so important to our future prospects.”
—Professor Sir Charles Bean, LSE; and Former Deputy Governor, Bank of England
“A very thorough and detailed account of many challenges facing both researchers and market practitioners in addressing difficult macroeconomic developments of modern times. The book challenges many cliches and stylised facts that surround demographics research and offers a fresh and comprehensive perspective on the subject. A must-read for students, policy makers and investment professionals interested in the intersection of demographics, macroeconomics and asset management.”
—Oksana Hrynchak, Analytics & Product Specialist, Bloomberg; and Formerly Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, & Bluecrest
Demographics Unravelled
How Demographics Affect and Influence Every Aspect of Economics, Finance and Policy
Amlan Roy
This edition first published 2022Copyright © 2022 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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ISBN 978-1-119-79913-9 (hardback)ISBN 978-1-119-79914-6 (ePDF)ISBN 978-1-119-79915-3 (ePub)ISBN 978-1-119-79916-0 (Obook)
Cover Design: WileyCover Images: © wildpixel/Getty Images, Floortje/Getty Images
To Anju, Shonai, Lilu, and Ranga
About the Author
Dr Amlan Roy is an experienced global macro-finance researcher and thought leader specialising in global macroeconomics and demographics. He presents to institutional clients in the private and public sectors across 30+ countries and is the founder of Global Macro Demographics. He is a research associate at London School of Economics' Systemic Risk Centre and an elected Honorary Fellow of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries.
Until June 2021, Amlan was head of Global Macro Research and senior managing director with State Street Global Advisors, having joined them in 2017 as chief retirement strategist. He was managing director and head of global demographics and pensions research with Credit Suisse Investment Bank from 1998 to 2016. In a prior role as global EM strategist, he developed global risk and allocation models as an expert on financial architecture during the Asian crisis.
Amlan spent 12 years in academia, with a distinguished teaching career in the US and UK. He was UK ESRC Research Fellow, Ponders Fellow, a Boston University Doctoral Scholar and a Government of India National Scholar. He has a PhD and MA in financial economics from the University of Iowa, an MBA from the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad and an undergraduate honours degree in economics from St. Stephen's College, University of Delhi.
Jodi tor daak shoone keu na aashe, tobe ekla cholo re.
—Nobel Laureate Rabindranath Tagore (1905; in Bengali).Translation: “If no one responds to your call, then walk the distance yourself”.
Acknowledgements
This book is the fruit of research efforts in the area of demographics over more than two decades. My initiation into demographics research owes a huge debt to Giles Keating, head of research at Credit Suisse Investment Bank, where I started the Global Demographics Project with him. Dick Hokenson, a collaborator, friend, and partner who joined Credit Suisse from DLJ in 2000, taught me a lot by sharing his knowledge as one of the experienced researchers in this area. Stefano Natella, former global head of equity research at Credit Suisse, was a strong supporter and believer, as was Lara Warner, business leaders (Gael de Boissard, Bob Jain, Tim O'Hara, Eraj Shirvani, and Stephen Dainton) provided management support at Credit Suisse, as did Rick Lacaille at State Street Global Advisors
Thanks to all my co-authors in demographics research (over the last two decades) for their collaboration, ideas, and support. Special thanks to Amy Le, my latest co-author and valuable research partner over the last four years. My growth as a researcher in this area owes a great deal to engagement and dialogue with global clients (pension funds, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, asset managers, endowments, private banks, foundations, central banks, regulators, hedge funds, private equity, and governments). Close partnership with several global sales teams helped me engage with global clients, and the sales partners have been a source of friendship and support.
Several influencers deserve a mention of gratitude: Andy Abel, Mukul Asher, Zvi Bodie, David Bloom, John Campbell, Jim Poterba, Steve Haberman, Andy Abel, Larry Kotlikoff, Andrew Ang, Angela Maddaloni, Orazio Attanasio, Carlo Favero, David Miles, Jim Bullard, Dirk Broeders, Theo Kocken, Luis Viceira, Tom Steenkamp, Elroy Dimson, Pablo Antolin, Arun Muralidhar, Mirko Cardinale, and David Blake.
Close friends Bala Venkatesh, Narayan Naik, Olivier Ledoit, David Webb, and Charles Bean have been there to debate, discuss, and teach me many things. Tom Frost and Tahir Wahid have been very special friends and colleagues in my career journey—my salute to them, too.
A big thank you to the Systemic Risk Centre and Financial Markets Group of the London School of Economics (LSE), which I have been affiliated with. Thank you to the CFA Institute and the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries for multiple conference speaking opportunities My thanks to the researchers and policymakers at the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Asian Development Bank (ADB), and Inter American Development Bank (IADB).
My most important debt is to my lovely family, who have always supported me: my wife Anjana and daughters Antara and Anusha. My late aunt Subhanjali Sarkar and cousin Chitralekha were pillars of strength through many troubled times in the past, so I also owe a lot to them. And thanks to all those who have been pressuring me over the last eight years to write a book on demographics.
Finally, I would like to thank Gemma Valler and Purvi Patel of Wiley for their guidance. A very special thanks to Tiffany Taylor for excellent editorial work in improving the book's readability. Gladys Ganaden created the nice cover design. Daughter Antara chose the final cover image. Thanks to Ashok Ravi who provided tips for efficient edits at final stage.
I hope that this book contributes to inspiring readers to broaden their views and perspectives in more fields than just demographics. Viewing data and events from multiple angles provides additional richness to our insights.
Selected Abbreviations
ADB
Asian Development Bank
ALM
Asset Liability Management
BEA
Bureau of Economic Analysis
BIS
Bank for International Settlements
BLS
Bureau of Labor Statistics, US
CCPI
Climate Change Performance Index
CDR
Child Dependency Ratio
COLA
Cost of living adjustment
CPI
Consumer Price Index
CPI
Corruption Perceptions Index
CRR
Center for Retirement Research< Boston
DALY
Disability adjusted life years
DB
Defined Benefit (pensions)
DC
Defined Contribution (pensions)
EC
European Commission
ECB
European Central Bank
EMG6
Emerging 6 countries: Brazil, China, India, Mexico, Russia, Turkey
EU
European Union
Fed
US Federal Reserve
FSR
Fiscal Sustainability Report
G6
Developed 6 countries: France Germany Italy Japan, UK, US
GBD
Global Burden of disease
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
GGDC
Groningen Growth and Development Centre
GHS index
Global Health Security index
GII
Gender Inequality Index
GRFC
Global Report on Food Crisis
HALE
Healthy Life Expectancy
HDI
Human Development Index
HMD
Human Mortality Database
ILO
International Labour Organisation
IMF
International Monetary Fund
LE
Life Expectancy
LFPG
Labour Force Productivity Growth
LFUG
Labour Force Utilization Growth
MO ratio
Middle aged population to old population
MY Ratio
Middle aged population to young population
NETSPAR
Network for study of Pensions and Retirement, Tilburg
NGFS
Network for Greening the Financial System
OADR
Old Age Dependency Ratio
OECD
Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development
ONS
Office for National Statistics
PAYG
Pay as you go (pensions)
PPP
Purchasing power parity
SDGs
Sustainable Development Goals
TDR
Total Dependency Ratio
TIPS
Treasury inflation protected securities (US)
UN
United Nations
WAPG
Working Age Population Growth
WHO
World Health Organisation
YLD
Years of life lost due to disability
YLL
Years of life lost due to premature mortality
Preface
This book is about my interpretation of demographics and its manifest implications for investments, macroeconomics, and policy. It represents more than two decades of research and synthesizes the connectivity of demographics with several subfields of economics: history, macroeconomics, international economics, labour economics, monetary policy, financial economics, development economics, etc. Repeated requests from clients, friends, and family, especially over the last eight years, have been the motivation for this book. My perspective is largely uniquely mine and like that of Peter F. Drucker1.
I draw on my teaching and reading across various subdisciplines of economics and finance to make demographics relevant for investment practitioners, policymakers, and applied researchers. My research notes have made this discipline relevant across different asset classes (equities, fixed income, real estate, commodities, alternatives) and geographies. This allowed for creation of investment products and funds based on the applied research. I challenge many conventional perceptions as being narrow and at best partially correct, offering multiple examples.
I believe that demographics pertains to each individual on the planet and not just the young or the old. I also highlight differences across old countries and old individuals, cautioning against blanket generalizations as the only defining criterion. The idea in the book is to explain relationships between demographic variables and economic as well as financial variables in an intuitive and consistent fashion. Wherever possible data, models, and frameworks are used to embellish the ideas.
In the spirit of a “Brave New World”2, this book challenges convention, expanding the boundaries of thought for understanding the real world of economics, investments, and policy options across multiple generations. It brings together macro and investment insights holistically with implications for individuals, companies, and countries. It discusses the important area of intergenerational fairness in a world where up to four or five generations co-exist for the first time in human history. Social responsibility and gender equality are at the core of important policy issues I discuss for a braver, better world. I hope the ideas in this book inspire discussion, debate, and understanding of issues that are critical for a better future society.
The structure of the book is as follows:
Introduction.
This chapter introduces and amplifies a broader, more insightful perspective of demographics. It presents the layout and chapter sequence with a few sentences to highlight the key issues, major take-aways, and challenges to a traditionalist perspective. It should encourage readers to go to specific chapters on a deeper dive to unravel various strands of demographics.
Global demographic trends
. This chapter summarises key trends with links to major public data sources. The purpose of highlighting these trends is to shed new light on several issues that readers broadly know of but often misinterpret or miss the point of. Age distributions (population pyramids), fertility, life expectancy, old-age dependency ratios, migration rates, gender ratios, etc. are presented and discussed. The focus is on the more important differences that are typically glossed over in order to aggregate countries, regions, and cities on some common feature. For example, what are the key differences across similar-looking Nordic countries; or open economies like Singapore, Taiwan, etc.; or smaller countries in the Middle East; or the US vs. Canada or the EU4? This chapter shows why certain commonly used and aggregated metrics or indicators may be misleading. Why are the largest advanced countries different from each other in important ways? The pace of urbanisation and growth of megacities have implications for sustainability, human development, health, and education. The concept of demographic transition, which interacts with economic cycles and affects all aspects of human life worldwide, is also discussed. Data differences and interpretation provide motivation for further discussions in later chapters.
Macroeconomics:
This chapter shows how characteristics and behaviour of consumers and workers affect economic growth, living standards (GDP per capita growth), inflation, and unemployment. Demographic effects are not just long-term, as these factors are also short-term variables. Consumers and workers make decisions throughout their lives, not just for the long-term. Understanding the implications for public debt, savings, and capital flows is vital to develop better policies and make optimal decisions. Economic growth is related to growth in worker numbers, worker productivity, and hours worked. I discuss why labour productivity growth is key to reviving global GDP growth in the developed world as well as major fast-growing emerging markets. Gender equality and youth empowerment are potential solutions to greater economic output. It is argued that long-term ageing-related promises are unsustainable in a lower-growth world and need renegotiation for fairer intergenerational equity. The chapter discusses the potential realisation of the demographic dividend across emerging and developed economies.
Asset prices:
This chapter discusses how demographics affects equity, bonds, real estate, and commodities in terms of asset prices and returns. The chapter presents insights from the academic literature on allocating accumulated resources over the human lifetime. Workers and retirees are faced with longer retirement periods, lower average growth, “lower for longer” interest rates, lower investment returns (equity, corporate bonds, high yield, etc.), and lower inflation than in the past. Investment returns and asset prices are influenced by consumption, savings, and investment decisions of households. Governments are faced with the responsibility of ensuring lower poverty rates for retirees in the future. The chapter presents the links between demographics and equity premia, sovereign bond yields, and sovereign ratings and also highlights equity sectors that are demographically advantaged and likely to emerge as winners.
Longevity and health:
This chapter provides insights into and discusses the reasons for uncertainty regarding longer horizon resource planning for individuals and institutions. The emphasis on good health and importance of public health investments has been continuous throughout the ongoing COVID pandemic. The need to focus on healthy life expectancy and disability-adjusted life years rather than life expectancy at birth is emphasised. It is also important to know how longevity uncertainty and longevity risk management can be improved to enjoy a healthy and adequate retirement life. The models of longevity and instruments to defray longevity risk (the risk of outliving accumulated savings) need to be better understood by institutions (pension funds, reinsurers, insurance companies) to manage assets to meet longevity-related obligations (liabilities).
Retirement and pensions:
This chapter highlights the importance of pension institutions amongst global financial institutions and investors. It presents a history of retirement and pensions, pension investment trends, issues facing pension funds, and design of pension systems. Issues underlying strategic and dynamic asset allocation for pensions are discussed, as are the implications of funding for corporate pension funds. The behaviour of the “new giants” (pension funds) is considered important by policymakers such as central banks and treasury departments for the well-being of citizens as well as potential contributors to global systemic risks. The rise of defined contribution plans where participants bear the risk is not without its own issues and has led to the origin of hybrid pension systems. The chapter highlights issues for the collective world of pensions in dealing with the changing new world by adopting changes to mindsets, tools, and asset allocation. It is noted that the governance and management of pension funds is as important as the investment returns from an efficiency and comprehensiveness perspective.
Gender, human capital, governance, and quality of life
: This chapter extends the focus and objective of individuals and households as well as collectively of institutions beyond monetary and pecuniary values. The extension beyond individual utility to social welfare functions and the human development index and happiness scores is essential for a world where income equality, gender equality, climate change, and corruption are serious concerns. The chapter discusses United Nations sustainable development goals (SDGs), transparency, national governance indicators, and gender scores to assess progress on a sustainable quality of life in a world where Millennials and younger generations care about the environment, equality, sustainability, fairness, and the “means more than just the ends”. We note that quality of life, climate change, and happiness are considered important for a better world and should be monitored.
Summary and conclusions:
A broader and deeper understanding of demographics is core to creating a better economic and investment environment for multiple generations in an ageing world. Healthy life expectancy with adequate retirement savings is essential for a responsible, sustainable future. Globalization, technology, geopolitics, and politics will interact to influence future consumer and worker behaviour.
Throughout the chapters, all the notes and references have been collected and presented at the end of the book, separated by each chapter. The References are an essential part of this book as I connect references from various different disciplines in the Notes section.
Notes
1
. Peter Drucker pioneered management thinking in many different unorthodox directions and is considered the guru of all pension gurus by many experts, including Keith Ambachtsheer.
2
. Aldous Huxley's
Brave New World
(1926) posed many challenges rooted in the basics of demographics.
Chapter 1Introduction
This chapter introduces and amplifies my broader and deeper perspective of demographics. It presents the layout and chapter sequence with a few sentences on the highlights, including key issues discussed, major take-aways, and challenges to the conventional perspective. It should encourage some readers to go to specific chapters for a deeper dive if they wished to read outside of the sequenced layout of the book.
This book summarises my views and research from a new angle on the subject area of demographics. When I first embarked on the initial stages of my research in this area in the millennium year 2000, I often heard interpretations of demographics related to age, youth, numbers of old, and numbers of very old. My inquisitiveness led me to delve deeper into the subject area to the etymology (word origin) of the term demographics. Its Greek origins stem from demos, which means “people”, and graphos, which means “characteristics”. My mind questioned the fact that if demographics pertained to people characteristics, how are the people characteristics within the subjects of economics and geography largely restricted to age only or the number of people only? As a macroeconomist, my view of “people characteristics” was, importantly, “people as consumers consuming goods and services” and also “people as workers producing goods and services”. This broader definition is not dependent only on age or numbers of young people.
1.1 Recasting Demographics
Broadening this definition of demographics then naturally extends to all the people in the world who are consumers, ranging from the newborn baby to the oldest centenarian, consuming the entire universe of goods and services. The aggregate consumption by individuals in an economy, which is referred to as private consumption expenditures, accounts for the largest share of GDP by expenditures. People's consumption of goods and services is a dominant component of national and global economic activity. A large segment of people in the population possess another characteristic: that of a worker contributing labour toward the production of goods and services, which in aggregate also leads to GDP. Thus, people are the core of any economy, and their salient features are those as consumers and workers—a far more important economic classification than that based on age or numbers of young or numbers of old. This paradigm encompasses the fact that consumer and worker behaviours are more relevant than their mere numbers or their age.
One of the world's greatest management gurus, Peter F. Drucker, had the following to say on the subject “Demographics is the single most important factor that nobody pays attention to, and when they do pay attention, they miss the point”1,2. This important insight by Drucker resonates with the broader interpretation of demographics that I have adopted and have been popularising for the last couple of decades in my reports, speeches, and discussions.
My first criticism was that conventional approaches to demographics by historians, market commentators, and popular writers were narrowly based on “age and numbers”. There was another popular misconception of demographics (related to the former narrow view) that it was “predictable”. This was based on counting people of certain age: say, if the number of 35-year-olds in a country in 2000 was X million people, then it could be said that the number of 45-year-olds in 2010 would be close to X million adjusted for certain mortality factors. The likelihood that most 35-year-olds would live to be 45-year-olds is close to 1 in most countries of the world. This notion of forward extrapolating the number of people of a given age few years ahead with near certainty or predictability3 to evaluate their demands is incomplete. However, being Druckerian in spirit, I believe that this popular conception also misses the point by focusing on numbers of people and how many of them are expected to live T-periods ahead in the future (10, 15, 20, etc.). The more important point is not just counting the mere numbers of 45-year-olds 10 years later but rather how different they are as consumers and also as workers than the current 45-year-olds. It is therefore the behaviour of consumers and workers 10 years later that is more unpredictable, interesting, and relevant from an economic and business perspective.
The behaviour of consumers depends on preferences towards consuming today vs. saving for later, also called the discount factor by economists (related to the degree of impatience that an individual consumer displays), and the preference towards risk, called the degree of risk aversion. Dynamic models of consumption and asset pricing in the microeconomics as well as macroeconomics literature build on these two preference parameters. Consumption by people as individuals and in the aggregate also depends on the universe of goods and services they could potentially consume. Consumers in the 1980s didn't have access to the same smartphones (iPhones, Samsung, etc.), web and internet services, and online ordering as consumers of the 2000s or consumers in 2010 and 2020. Technological advances and product innovations have dramatically altered the consumption opportunity set available to individual consumers across all countries in the world, not just in the advanced, rich countries. Globalisation has extended access and availability to consumers in the poorest countries, too4.
Both the consumer opportunity set and the preferences of consumers have changed as the world has globalised, information and education have increased awareness, and companies have innovated over time. The affordability of technological and consumer products has undergone radical changes on many fronts, which would have been hard to forecast 10 or 20 years ago even by visionaries, futurists, or pioneering innovators.
People (consumers and workers) were at the core of modern economics, as elaborated by Adam Smith's The Wealth of Nations (1776) and The Theory of Moral Sentiments. People's behaviour was also central in John Maynard Keynes' The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936). Keynes coined the term animal spirits to capture the emotions, impulses, and tendencies that influence human behaviour and used it to explain investor decisions of buying and selling assets during times of uncertainty and stress. Psychology and deviations from perfect rationality have also been highlighted by Daniel Kahnemann and Amos Tversky5, who highlighted cognitive biases in decision-making, and Richard Thaler6,7, who highlighted deviations from rationality in economics and the importance of behavioural economics. One of the pioneers of decision-making in organisations as well as artificial intelligence was Herbert Simon, who took an interdisciplinary approach to organisational decision-making and developed the concepts of bounded rationality and satisficing. My perspective fundamentally includes the behaviour of consumers and workers as a reflection of their characteristics.
I have another criticism of the conventional popular perception of demographics being long-term in its effects. Consumers and workers make direct contributions to the economic output of a country, a region, or the world, as mentioned earlier. Additionally, they influence inflation through effects on both the demand and supply sides. The wages consumer demands and labour costs of workers have short-term as well as medium-term and long-term effects on inflation and profitability. A flagship study by Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid8 on long-term inflation over centuries found that demographics was one of the most important factors influencing inflation. My direct negation of this populism that demographics is long-term only stems from the fact that consumers and workers are not just long-term in terms of their economic behaviour but also immediate-term, short-term, and medium-term.
To summarise, I assert that demographics is not about age or population numbers only, nor is it only long-term in its effects, nor is it largely predictable, as it is hard to predict worker and consumer psychology in the future in the face of changing consumer opportunity sets—many of which have not even been visualised—like the current versions of the iPhone, web-based education, and online ordering
My perspective of demographics extends to a conclusion that I have been stressing over the last two decades that demographics affects the income statement and balance sheet of every household, every company, every industry, and every country. This is because consumers and workers are the core of revenues and costs of every producing unit, be it at the household level or company level or industry level or national level. Demographics has accounting implications on enterprise profitability if one views labour as contributing to the costs and consumers as contributing to the revenues.
By taking a broader view of demographics, I reveal and unravel the rich and deep influences of demographics on macroeconomics, investments, and policy. I paraphrase Drucker to urge readers of this book “not to miss the point when they pay attention to demographics”. A better understanding of demographics is essential to facilitate their entry into a Braver (and Better) New World9. I strongly believe that a proper understanding of demographics will facilitate a better understanding of the dynamics of the real economy (Main Street) and the financial markets (Wall Street), as well as the divergences that have become very apparent during the 2020-COVID era.
1.2 Effects and Implications of Demographics
The focus in understanding demographics should be on understanding the effects of people behaviour at the micro (individual basis) as well as at the macro (the aggregate) level. These encompass individual interactions and dynamics within families, groups, and societies, which are a reflection of their characteristics. The failure of modern macroeconomics in warning about the global financial crisis (GFC) was highlighted by George Akerlof and Robert Shiller in Animal Spirits (2010)10, another warning about not ignoring people's behaviour. While modelling the behaviour of people at the individual and aggregate levels yields many insights, the complexity of the human psyche and resultant behaviour highlights the heterogeneity across people in families, groups, and countries. We need to better understand economics and finance in conjunction with psychology, philosophy, and politics, as Akerlof and Shiller emphasise.
Trends at both the micro and macro levels testify to the impact of changing behaviour that results in observable changing core demographic characteristics such as increased life expectancy, lower population increases and growth, lower fertility rates (children born per woman), increased ratios of old to young people, and lower ratios of working-age people in the total population. These in turn also influence behaviour in terms of productivity of workers, movements of people from rural to urban areas, movements across countries (migration), and access to education, technology, and capital. Focus on age alone misses out on the fact that similar-aged people across different areas and countries exhibit different behaviour, as human behaviour is endogenous: it is different within different systems and institutional setups.
How we live, how we consume, and how we work have changed dramatically over the last few decades, with rapid acceleration due to the adoption of technology, changed awareness and knowledge, and adapting to changing work and home environments. These behavioural trends are nicely documented by Mark Penn11 in MicroTrends (2000) as well as in MicroTrends Squared (2018). Microtrends reflect the changing behaviour of people at the micro level, which over time gets incorporated into aggregate changes displaying growing levels of heterogeneity. This is akin to a focus in the academic macroeconomics literature on micro-foundations of macroeconomics to reconcile or explain certain major macro puzzles.
The changing trends of globalisation over the last few decades, followed by a recent slowdown in the pace of globalisation, even called deglobalisation, are affected by changes in people's movement, trade, and government policies. I believe and argue that globalisation is a multifaceted phenomenon with a slowdown in some features such as global trade but rampant acceleration in the flow of information, IT, and capital. This is another example of the narrow interpretation of globalisation related to the movement of goods and services as well as the movement of people across national boundaries.
A correlation exists between the recent slowdown of real GDP growth in advanced countries and the acceptance of immigrants into their labour force and/or citizen population. There are many countries that rely on pools of immigrant labour—some skilled and some unskilled—to meet their workforce requirements. Even within the same region, neighbouring countries have differing immigration policies and immigrant worker shares. Population change decomposes into natural population change (deaths minus births) and net immigration (immigration less emigration). Demographics affects and is affected by both internal and external migration policies. Internal migration from villages to towns to cities reflects the growing trend of urbanisation within countries. Urbanisation growth has been much more rapid in many of the emerging market countries, leading to a larger number of megacities in the developing world such as Sao Paolo, Rio de Janeiro, Shanghai, Mexico City, Lagos, Mumbai, Delhi, Beijing, Kolkata, Dhaka, and Lahore. We shall discuss urbanisation, immigration, and globalisation in later sections of the book.
The later chapters as outlined in the preface, present data on the ongoing demographic changes, including a historical look back. The focus then is on the implications of those demographic changes on macroeconomic variables such as labour productivity, GDP growth, GDP per capita, inflation, interest rates, and public debt. Further discussion revolves around the effects of demographic changes on asset prices and asset allocation. Individual preferences toward risk and expected return influence the prices of assets. The rise of behavioural finance as a research area helps provide alternate explanations for many observed financial events and data.
A very important applied area of demographics is pensions and insurance. Increased life expectancy has resulted in uncertainties associated with living longer, given limited resources. Individuals want insurance for longer lives and also want to plan better over their lifetimes, which involves decisions on how much to save and which assets to invest those savings in. Pension funds and insurance companies invest in assets that help defray their liabilities. Strategic asset allocation and asset liability management are growing areas of emphasis for institutions that help manage liability risk for individuals. Later chapters of this book also focus on the importance of health from an individual and aggregate perspective, underscoring the importance of healthy life expectancy for society. Demographic changes have effects on inequality across generations, gender, age groups, regions, and countries. We discuss implications for inequality, human development, human capital, sustainability and public governance in later chapters, too.
People influence social change and social policies. Their behaviour is conditioned by the environment that they live in and their past experiences. The environment is determined by the interaction of various systems (health, education, labour, social welfare, legal, political, etc.) and the institutional framework. Policies have a role to play, and the role of government thereby influences the environment within which consumers and workers reside. The potentially negative implications of ageing populations have been characterised by the popular rhetoric of “the demographics time bomb”, posing a threat to ageing developed countries, and several experts, including Peter Peterson, have warned of this12,13.
In my first research foray into the area of demographics, “The Demographic Manifesto”14, we advocated radical policy measures as part of a policy agenda for ageing countries to adopt in order to mitigate the demographic time bomb. In later policy research, I emphasised the need for coordinated and holistic policy across individuals, companies, governments, and international policy institutions to solve this complex issue of ageing, as it has manifold direct and indirect implications.
Changes in consumers and workers pertain to their changing preferences and behaviour as the environment around them changes. Endogenous changes in behaviour reflect the psychology of individuals, which differs across people irrespective of age, gender, or race; it is conditioned on a complex of experiences, environment, and background. Drucker highlights the role of the knowledge worker in a modern, evolving society and the role of information. The role of heterogeneity and diversity in decision-making in response to the changing opportunity set is reflected in the resultant outcomes and outputs.
The focus of demographics is people; and as people “live longer and live differently” than ever before, for the first time in humanity, four to five generations of a family co-exist with hardly one or one-and-a-half generations working to support them. The pressures of supporting multiple generations of members are apparent not just to families but also to governments. Many experts have characterised this ongoing phenomenon as a generational storm15 or source of potential generational conflict, with the smaller, younger population group having to support a growing old-aged group. The basic question facing societies and countries as they age is one related to finances to support the ageing, as articulated very provocatively and directly by Peter Heller (2003), highlighting the urgency of planning16 for such a future. Unprecedented demographic changes are heralding challenges and opportunities for society, industry, and governments on the path toward ensuring a profitable, sustainable, and equitable future for the population, which includes all consumers and workers. Therefore, demographics has international, intertemporal, and intergenerational effects across countries and the world.
In the next chapter of this book, I present data on core demographics, looking back and placing the current period in a historical context. I then use the data on population projections from the United Nations (UN), one of the best and most reliable sources of data both across time and countries. The UN population projections are used globally by public and private sector researchers to analyse and understand future data on populations. I refer to these as core demographics data, which are the lifeblood of any demographics-based analysis. The UN databases cover all the consumers in the world, as any individual in the population, whether a baby or a centenarian, is a consumer. For data on workers, I rely primarily on International Labour Organization (ILO) data. In addition to the ILO and UN, data and research reports from the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF), European Commission (EC), Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Groningen Growth and Development Centre (GGDC), US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank (ECB), and other sources are used as and where appropriate.
Notes
1
. Drucker, P.F. (2000).
Management Challenges for the Twenty-first Century
. Harper Business.
2
. Kash, R. (2002).
The New Law of Demand and Supply
. Currency.
3
. Life tables produced by actuaries using historical data giving conditional probabilities of an individual aged 35 years today living to be 45 years old, 10 years later.
4
. Wolf, M. (2005).
Why Globalization Works
. Yale University Press.
5
. Kahnemann, D. and Tversky, A. (1974). Judgement under uncertainty: heuristics and biases.
Science
185 (4157): 1124–1131.
6
. Thaler, R. (1974).
Quasi Rational Economics
. Russell Sage Foundation.
7
. Thaler, R. (2015).
Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics
. Penguin.
8
. Reid, J. (2018). The history (and future) of inflation. Deutsche Bank Research.
9
. This is my adaptation of Aldous Huxley's
Brave New World
. We should aim for a Better New World in consistence with the climate change and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) challenges that all of us face.
10
. Akerlof, G. and Shiller, R.J. (2009).
Animal Spirits
. Princeton University Press. The title's extension is telling on this point:
Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism
.
11
. Penn, M.J. (2007).
MicroTrends: The Small Forces Behind Today's Big Changes
. Penguin, UK. And Penn, M.J. (2019).
MicroTrends Squared
. Simon and Schuster. Mark Penn, a political strategist and pollster, documented how these small micro-trends were emerging as major forces to change the world.
12
. Peterson, P. (1999).
Gray Dawn
. Crown.
13
. Peterson, P. (1996).
Will America Grow Up Before It Grows Old?
Random House.
14
. Keating, G., Hokenson, R.J. and Roy, A. (2000). The demographic manifesto: new jobs, new people. Credit Suisse Research.
15
. Kotlikoff, L.J. and Burns, S. (2004).
The Coming Generational Storm
. MIT Press. The book delves into the potential fiscal issues.
16
. Heller, P. (2003).
Who Will Pay? Coping with Ageing Societies, Climate Change, and Other Long-Term Fiscal Challenges
. International Monetary Fund.
