Financial Cold War E-Book

James A. Fok

• Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
• Kategorie: Fachliteratur
• Sprache: Englisch

Seitenzahl: 898

Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2021

Beschreibung

A groundbreaking exploration of US-China relations as seen through the lens of international finance Rising tensions between China and the United States have kept the financial markets on edge as a showdown between the world's two largest economies seems inevitable. But what most people fail to recognise is the major impact that the financial markets themselves have had on the creation and acceleration of the conflict. In Financial Cold War: A View of Sino-US Relations from the Financial Markets, market structure and geopolitical finance expert James Fok explores the nuances of China-US relations from the perspective of the financial markets. The book helps readers understand how imbalances in the structure of global financial markets have singularly contributed to frictions between the two countries. In this book, readers will find: * A comprehensive examination of the development of financial markets in both China and the US, as well as the current US dollar-based global financial system * Insightful observations of the roles of technology, innovation, regulation, taxation, and politics in the markets, and on their resulting effect on US-Sino relations * Thorough explorations of the role of Hong Kong as an intermediary for capital flows between China and the rest of the world * Suggestions for how, balancing the many varying interests, policymakers might be able to devise effective strategies for de-escalating current Sino-US tensions Financial Cold War is a can't-miss resource for anyone personally or professionally interested in the intersection of economics and international relations, financial markets, and the infrastructure underlying the international financial system.

Leseprobe

Table of Contents

Cover

Title Page

Copyright

Dedication

Preface

Note

Acknowledgements

Abbreviations

Chapter 1: Introduction

Legacy of the GFC

Modern History of Sino-US Relations

The Financial Roots of Sino-US Conflict

The Financial Path Out of Conflict

Notes

PART ONE: THE COLOUR OF MONEY TURNS GREEN

Chapter 2: How the US Dollar Took Over the World

An Ad Hoc Position

The Barbarous Relic

Two Competing Plans

A British Innovation

The Coupon Express

Plumbing the World's Financial Markets

Niksonu Shokku

Volatility

‘Risk Free’ Assets

Boom and Bust

Notes

Chapter 3: Whose Problem?

The Unipolar Moment

The Almighty Mr. Market

Emerging Markets Crises

The Weakest Link

The Music Stops

Anyone for Tea?

A Tipping Point?

Notes

PART TWO: CAPITALISM WITH CHINESE CHARACTERISTICS

Chapter 4: From First World to Third and Back Again

Maritime Power

The Milk of Paradise

Wars and Revolutions

A Leap into the Abyss

Herding Cats

Crackdown

Journeys to the South

A New Path

The Bird's Nest

Notes

Chapter 5: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back

Going Public

The Protection Racket

The Price of Money

Still Building, But Will They Come?

Alien Attack

Who Will Look After Grandma?

Connecting China and the World

Can't Buy Me Love

Notes

PART THREE: THE FINANCIAL COLD WAR

Chapter 6: A New Cold War?

A Close Call

Fly Me to the Moon

Tax Me If You Can

A War of Words?

Geo-economic Warfare

Notes

Chapter 7: The Role of Markets in the 21

st

Century

Selective Efficiency

What Happens When Competition Dies

Wrong Incentives

Bubbles and Cycles

Funny Money

We're All in the Same Boat

Notes

Chapter 8: Avoiding the Thucydides Trap

Admitting the Problems

A New Bretton Woods?

MAD for Markets

It All Starts with Leadership

Notes

Afterword

Notes

Cast of Characters

Bibliography

Index

End User License Agreement

Guide

Cover Page

Table of Contents

Title Page

Copyright

Dedication

Preface

Acknowledgements

Abbreviations

Begin Reading

Afterword

Cast of Characters

Bibliography

Index

End User License Agreement

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Financial Cold War

A View of Sino-US Relations from the Financial Markets

James A. Fok

This edition first published 2022

Copyright © 2022 by James A. Fok.

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For Peter & Harry

Preface

Among my earliest memories was a visit to a stockbroker's office with my father. Growing up in Hong Kong, every Chinese New Year children would receive ‘red packets' containing small sums of money from relatives and family friends. Each year, my father would gather up the haul that my siblings and I had collected to invest in stocks. In the go-go years of Hong Kong in the 1980s, people from all walks of life seemed to hang on every fluctuation of the stock market. Although I had very little knowledge of financial markets back then, I suppose I was instilled early in life with a sense of their power.

Later, as a teenager, I struggled with my studies in classical Chinese texts. Taking pity on me, my godmother offered to tutor me, and I started going up to her office twice a week for tutorials. Auntie Sue – as she is known to me – was a successful lawyer who had co-founded a law firm with my father. However, by that stage she had become a little bored of the law and had taken up a side-line in trading stock options. I found Confucian and Mencian philosophy rather tedious and often diverted these tutorial sessions to discussions on stocks and options trading. Over time, Auntie Sue taught me the basic principles of securities valuation and options pricing that, as an adolescent with dreams of riches, I absorbed with enthusiasm.

In my first year at university, with savings from part-time work and various entrepreneurial ventures, I opened an online trading account and began investing in the markets myself. It was in the middle of the Dot-com boom and I had some initial success but, ultimately, this was to lead to one of my first great lessons in the pitfalls of overexuberance. Nonetheless, my interest in financial markets wasn't extinguished.

As an undergraduate in Beijing in the 1990s, I got to experience first-hand how market reforms were transforming China. I witnessed the launch of Starbucks, Walmart and the trappings of American consumer culture in the country. A huge number of Chinese students aspired to post-graduate studies in the United States (US) and I was regularly asked by fellow students to help them study for the GRE English test, success in which was a prerequisite for acceptance to American colleges (although, frankly, most of them scored far higher than I would have done). At that time, it seemed to me that the ‘Chinese Dream' was pretty similar to the ‘American Dream' and, like many observers, I expected economic growth would ultimately lead to political reforms and a more liberal democratic society.

I also glimpsed some of the hangovers from China's traumatic past. When five US guided bombs hit the Chinese embassy in Belgrade during the Balkans conflict in 1999, people were quickly whipped up into a nationalistic frenzy. US authorities claimed that this incident, in which three Chinese citizens were killed, was due to a CIA mistake. China has never accepted this explanation. In the days that followed, angry crowds demonstrated outside the US embassy. One evening shortly afterwards, I was out with a friend from Korea. Conversing in English, we were mistaken for Americans and chased after by a mob. That certainly left an impression on me that populist nationalism is a pretty scary thing.

On completing university, I joined the graduate programme of an American investment bank in London. I rapidly specialised in advising financial services clients and learned top-down and bottom-up about the international financial system.

For almost a decade until mid-2021, I worked at the centre of Hong Kong's financial markets at Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX). HKEX is the sole exchange and clearing house operator in the most successful initial public offerings (IPOs) market in the world. I landed there because, back in early 2012, I found myself between jobs with time on my hands. A social acquaintance who was running Business Development for HKEX at the time asked if I might come and help out on a corporate takeover the Exchange was contemplating. I had been due to join another investment bank several months later and my wife told me I should just relax and enjoy my time off. However, although I had previously worked on transactions involving banks, insurers and asset managers, I had never seriously looked at how exchanges work, and curiosity got the better of me. The transaction turned out to be the competitive auction for the London Metal Exchange (LME), the world's leading venue for trading industrial metals, with a history tracing back over four centuries.

From the outside in, HKEX in those days looked like a sleepy and bureaucratic organisation. On my first day in the office, I discovered that the company did not have international direct dialling from the desktop phones. To make an overseas call, you had to find a secretary to come and input a long series of codes before being able to dial out. The first-round bids for the LME were due in a couple of weeks. When I got home that night, I told my wife that I would be able to resume my time off after that. Famous last words…

HKEX was then in the early stages of a transformation to broaden its focus from stock trading. Notwithstanding the company's inexperience in international takeovers, the then Chairman and CEO were determined to win the race to acquire the LME. In the latter stages of the transaction, I was asked whether I might stay on in a full-time position. My wife was sceptical about the idea. We were thinking about starting a family and working for the Exchange would involve a meaningful pay cut. However, somehow it just felt like the right move.

Hong Kong is a small town and I already knew a number of people at HKEX. Most importantly, the Exchange was one of the few sizeable financial institutions that is Hong Kong-based. HKEX sits at the heart of Hong Kong's financial ecosystem, which is integral to the city's success and prosperity. It was attractive to me to be putting my energies towards building a company that can make a big difference to Hong Kong, and where the key decisions were made locally, rather than far away in Frankfurt, London or New York.

Hong Kong's raison d'être since it was ceded to the British in 1842 following the Opium War has been as a centre of trade, connecting China and Western markets. Over time, the trade in goods was supplemented by trading in securities and derivatives. Following the return of sovereignty to China in 1997, Hong Kong's role as the leading financial centre connecting China and international markets has continued to grow.

HKEX has grown alongside Hong Kong, expanding its role in the past decade from serving as the leading platform for Chinese companies to raise investment from international investors to trading in fixed income, currencies and commodities. The company has also cooperated with Mainland Chinese market infrastructure operators to expand and deepen the connections between China and international markets.

Initially, I worked as Chief of Staff to the CEO. Later I took over running Group Strategy for the organisation. Through my work on the formulation and execution of HKEX's strategy, I found myself at a fascinating intersection of global geopolitics and financial markets at what is arguably one of the most pivotal points in international relations in my generation. From this perch, I had the opportunity not only to interact with the top managements of the major global banks, corporate issuers and investors who are HKEX's customers, but also to work closely with regulators and policymakers in Hong Kong, Mainland China, and around the world. This opened my eyes to the broader geopolitical considerations surrounding financial markets policy and regulation.

In most parts of the financial services industry, the main challenges are to work out how to get something done and how to make money doing it. Due to their central position in the marketplace, exchanges and other market infrastructures that constitute the ‘plumbing' of the global capital markets overlap with regulation and policy to a much greater extent than other financial organisations. For regulators and policymakers, making money is only a secondary or even tertiary concern. What they care about are the rules of the game. Very subtle changes in these can have a huge bearing on a wide range of national interests.

Following China's economic rise over recent decades and emergence as a global power, there has been much speculation about a ‘gathering storm' in Sino-US relations. Academic and policy debate has raged over whether China and America can avoid the ‘Thucydides Trap'. This is the theory first posited by the ancient Athenian historian Thucydides in his History of the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta (431–404 BC) that the fear of a rising power challenging the leadership of an incumbent power would inevitably lead to war. Indeed, in the majority of instances where a rising power has challenged the supremacy of the dominant power over the past five hundred years, war has followed – as in the case of Germany versus Great Britain in 1914.1

In the euphoria of the years following the end of the Cold War, such a conflict between two major powers was almost unimaginable. And yet, in the wake of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC), we have seen a return to populist and nationalist politics, including the open expression of appalling prejudices, that had previously been unknown and regarded as unthinkable to my generation in the liberal democracies of the West. Brexit and the Sino-US trade war are conspicuous examples of this phenomenon, where public opinion and government policies have been heavily influenced by economic factors. At the time of writing, the full long-term effects of the Covid-19 pandemic are yet to be known, but tensions have been escalating.

This book is an attempt to synthesise the financial and economic factors that have brought us to our current predicament, analyse the geopolitical realities underlying financial markets today, and to suggest some solutions that balance the many varying interests, so as to avert the calamities that befell earlier generations. In this attempt, I am conscious of Maslow's caution that ‘It is tempting, if the only tool you have is a hammer, to treat everything as if it were a nail'. Financial markets cannot provide solutions to all the complex problems that arise in Great Power relations – indeed, policies that excessively favoured markets at the expense of communities may have contributed to many of the problems in the first place.

That said, I haven't yet come across an analysis that considers fully, from both a top-down and bottom-up perspective, how the global financial system as we know it today is contributing to geopolitical tensions. Even less attention is paid to the diverse range of policies, regulations, infrastructures and conventions that support it. Without an appreciation of these and the history of how the system has come about, it is difficult to understand the full scope of the systemic financial challenges facing the world's two leading powers, much less devise effective strategies for navigating the treacherous waters we're in.

A number of leading authorities from different fields have recommended a variety of paths that could lead to a peaceful rebalancing of the Sino-US relationship. This book does not try to usurp those, but to supplement their specific perspectives with a practical perspective from the field of financial markets. What I can say with confidence though is that, without addressing the sources of financial and economic tensions, it is unlikely that other sources of conflict can be eliminated. I hope this book might help increase mutual understanding and offer some insights to assist policymakers in both the East and the West in the extremely difficult task of smoothing the course of China's integration into the international financial system during a tricky period of geopolitical adjustment.

However, the book is not only targeted at policymakers. Be it in a liberal democracy or any other political system, leaders govern on behalf of their people. Every citizen has an interest in understanding the issues his or her country faces, so as to help ensure that leaders act in the best interests of society as a whole. The book has therefore been written in a way to make it accessible, without shying away from complexity. I hope it will be helpful in particular to those with an interest in international relations, finance, economic history, sociology and political science.

Being of mixed Chinese and British heritage, I owe my very existence to globalisation and to the particularly tempestuous period of history that created China and Hong Kong as they are today. This has undeniably influenced my viewpoints. Another stroke of serendipity that has enriched my outlook – and my life more generally – was to have met my wife Yeone, an American with a love of her country. Through her, I have had the opportunity to better understand the US and re-examine some of my preconceptions. Having had the privilege of experiencing the best – and, on occasions, the worst – of contemporary China and America, I have a deep affection for both countries. Moreover, our two young sons will grow up both Chinese and American and, if for no other reason, this alone gives me an enormous vested interest in seeing the two nations thrive in harmony with each other. Yet, putting sentimentality aside, I believe that setting the right policies depends on making objective assessments of the facts.

At this point, readers should note that I held positions of influence in Hong Kong's financial markets strategy and policymaking between 2012 and mid-2021. Through this, I was directly involved in certain Chinese policy steps towards financial markets internationalisation that are discussed in this book. While I have made every effort to maintain objectivity, where there are failings in this regard, I hope that readers will be compensated through the insights afforded by a first-hand perspective.

Over the course of human history, extreme inequality in the distribution of resources has tended to lead to conflict. The evolution of international trade and investment has, when conducted on the basis of sound rules and with the object of mutual benefit, raised humanity's collective standard of living and contributed to more peaceful coexistence between societies. Listening to the political rhetoric of late, it seems that some of our leaders may need a reminder of the lessons of history. This is my small contribution to that cause and I hope that readers will find this book entertaining, informative and thought-provoking.

That all said, I am an optimist and believe firmly that, if we can successfully navigate the next steps of global financial integration, we can all look forward to a bright era of greater prosperity and security. We have no choice. The alternative is simply not something we want to contemplate.

– James A. FokHong Kong10 September 2021

Note

1.

See (Allison, 2017).

Acknowledgements

My first thanks must go to my wife Yeone, who initially encouraged me to write this book as a way of passing some spare time while stuck at home during the Covid-19 pandemic. She probably hadn't imagined that it would become such an engrossing diversion as to cause me to neglect most of my familial duties for many subsequent months. As I disappeared (at least mentally) into the research and writing, she only very occasionally complained about having to shoulder most of the burden of looking after our five-year-old twins. On top of that, Yeone reviewed the first draft of each section, asked a ton of questions, and pushed me to add colour to illustrate my arguments. I hope that the final work at least partially justifies her sacrifices.

My next thanks go to Mark Bentley. Mark gave me my first job in financial services and has been a consistent friend and mentor ever since. While working on this book, I spent countless hours in conversation with him discussing many of the ideas contained in it. Mark and I have very different perspectives (he is an ardent free marketeer who talks of Milton Friedman in the same reverent tones reserved for saints of the church), but his impressive ability to dissect arguments and challenge the flaws in them undoubtedly improved the final work considerably.

This book also owes a huge debt to the work of the many authors and writers whose books, research papers and articles are listed in the bibliography. I now realise what an enormous amount of effort goes into all of this, and I am extremely grateful to each of them.

Along the way, I have had a lot of help. Much of what I have learned about financial markets has come from former colleagues, business partners, professional advisors, regulators and clients. There are far too many to name each of them here, but I am deeply grateful to all those who have shared the highs and supported me through the lows of my career thus far, and to each and every one who has made my work so much fun over the years.

Specifically in relation to this book, thanks go to Bryan Cheuk and Kenneth Lock, who helped with research on the economic and financial data that appear in it. I am also grateful to Alokik Advani, Andrew Bernard, Cheah Cheng Hye, Rebecca Chua, Fu Hao, Jeremy Grant, Patrick Jacquelin, Sue Johnson, Kai Keller, Paul Kennedy, Michael Lam, Li Yingying, Max Lummis, George Magnus, Michael Moser, James Muir, Edmund Ng, Lisa O'Connor, Matt O'Neill, Ketan Patel, Patrick Young and Zhou Bo, who reviewed various chapters and provided helpful feedback and encouragement.

There are a number of people to whom I am particularly indebted for their extensive comments and advice.

Mustansir Barma provided very detailed feedback on the draft manuscript and corrected several factual errors.

Roland Chai urged me to consider more deeply how digital currencies might affect the future development of the global financial system. Adam Wielowieyski then introduced me to a wide range of research in this area and was exceedingly patient in answering my many questions. This effort was not only interesting and rewarding, but it also led me to change some of my final conclusions.

Jonathan Chow provided insightful feedback on the structure of the book and editing advice, which put better focus on the key arguments. He also gave me some helpful suggestions on the title of the book and various sections.

Nick Gardiner sent me pages of meticulously typed notes on the manuscript, with a huge number of valuable questions and suggestions.

Katie Kolchin was a wealth of information on US financial statistics and much more. Her eye for detail helped significantly improve the chapters covering the development of the US market.

After I thought I had a near-final draft of the manuscript, a mutual friend suggested that I ask Henny Sender to take a look at it for me. I had met Henny a number of years before and knew her to be very thoughtful and knowledgeable about China's financial markets. I was incredibly fortunate that Henny not only looked at the draft for me, but drilled into the manuscript, pushing me to clarify each passage with a sort of nurturing iron discipline I had not encountered since visits to the school matron's surgery at boarding school. Without a doubt, this resulted in a far more polished work than I could ever have accomplished on my own.

Several others provided very helpful comments and advice on the manuscript, but would prefer to remain anonymous. I am deeply grateful to each of them.

Ronald Chan, Uther Charlton-Stevens, Mark Makepeace, Sophie Chen Keller and Shan Weijian gave me extensive advice on the publishing process and were extraordinarily generous with their contacts. I ultimately chose to work with Wiley because of the incredible enthusiasm that Gladys (Syd) Ganaden showed in the project right from the start. Syd, together with Purvi Patel, Sylvie Docherty, Philo Antonie Mahendran and the entire Wiley team were friendly, professional and a delight to work with throughout the process. I am also very grateful to Amita Haylock and Cheng Hau Yeo of Mayer Brown for their professional support and practical advice.

Finally, I must thank Stephanie Tsui for her daily support over many years. Without her efficiency in organising my life, this book would never have been completed.

That all said, any errors, omissions or other failings in this final work (of which I am sure there are many) are my responsibility. I must also stress that the views expressed herein are mine alone, and do not claim to represent those of any of the individuals who have provided advice or support. Nor do they represent the views of any of my former employers or other organisations with which I am associated.

– James A. FokHong Kong4 October 2021

Abbreviations

9/11

11 September 2001

AIDS

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome

AIIB

Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank

ANZUS

Australia, New Zealand, United States Security Treaty

ASEAN

Association of Southeast Asian Nations

B2B

Business-to-Business

B2C

Business-to-Consumer

BCCL

Bond Connect Company Limited

BIS

Bank for International Settlements

BRI

Belt and Road Initiative

CBDC

Central Bank Digital Currency

CBOE

Chicago Board Options Exchange

CBOT

Chicago Board of Trade

CCDC

China Central Depository and Clearing

CCP

Chinese Communist Party

CDS

Credit Default Swap

CEO

Chief Executive Officer

CFA

Court of Final Appeal (of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region)

CFETS

China Foreign Exchange Trading System

CFFEX

China Financial Futures Exchange

CFIUS

Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States

CGB

Chinese Government Bond

CIA

Central Intelligence Agency

CIPS

Cross-Border Interbank Payment System

CME

Chicago Mercantile Exchange

CMU

Central Moneymarkets Unit (of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

CNH

Offshore Chinese Yuan

CNY

Onshore Chinese Yuan

CSRC

China Securities Regulatory Commission

DTC

The Depository Trust Company

e-CNY

Digital Yuan

ECB

European Central Bank

EEC

European Economic Community

ETF

Exchange-traded Fund

EU

European Union

FATCA

Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (of the United States)

FCC

Federal Communications Commission (of the United States)

FDI

Foreign Direct Investment

FDIC

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (of the United States)

FDR

Franklin Delano Roosevelt

Fed

Federal Reserve (of the United States)

FINSIDER

Società Finanziaria Siderugica

FSTB

Financial Services and Treasury Bureau (of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region)

G-10

Group of 10

G-7

Group of 7

GATT

General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs

GDP

Gross Domestic Product

GFC

Global Financial Crisis

GNP

Gross National Product

GPS

Global Positioning System

GRE

Graduate Record Examination

GSE

Government-sponsored Enterprise

HFT

High Frequency Trader

HIV

Human Immunodeficiency Virus

HKEX

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited

HKMA

Hong Kong Monetary Authority

HKSCC

Hong Kong Securities Clearing Corporation

ICB

International Clearing Bank

ICE

Intercontinental Exchange

ICSD

International Central Securities Depository

IET

Interest Equalisation Tax (of the United States)

IMF

International Monetary Fund

IMM

International Monetary Market

INSTEX

Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges

IPE

International Petroleum Exchange

IPO

Initial Public Offering

IRI

Istituto per la Ricostruzione Industriale

IRS

Internal Revenue Service (of the United States)

JCPOA

Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action

JFK

John Fitzgerald Kennedy

LBJ

Lyndon Baines Johnson

LCH

London Clearing House

LDC

Less Developed Country

Legco

Legislative Council (of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region)

LME

London Metal Exchange

LTCM

Long-Term Capital Management

M&A

Mergers and Acquisitions

MAD

Mutually Assured Destruction

MBS

Mortgage Backed Security

MFN

Most Favoured Nation

MMF

Money Market Fund

MMT

Modern Monetary Theory

MOU

Memorandum of Understanding

MPT

Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications (of the People's Republic of China)

MTN

Medium-term Note

NAFMII

National Association of Financial Markets Institutional Investors (of the People’s Republic of China)

NASD

National Association of Securities Dealers

NATO

North Atlantic Treaty Organisation

NAV

Net Asset Value

NEO

Net Errors and Omissions

NGO

Non-governmental Organisation

NPC

National People's Congress (of the People's Republic of China)

NPL

Non-performing Loan

NSL

National Security Law (of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region)

NYMEX

New York Mercantile Exchange

NYSE

New York Stock Exchange

OECD

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

OPEC

Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries

PAC

Political Action Committee

PBOC

People's Bank of China

PhD

Doctor(ate) of Philosophy

PIIGS

Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain

PLA

People's Liberation Army

PNP

Pacific Newport Partners

PRC

People's Republic of China

QDII

Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor

QDII2

Qualified Domestic Individual Investor

QFII

Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor

R&D

Research and Development

RQFII

Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor

S&P

Standard and Poor's

SARS

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome

SASAC

State-owned Asset Supervision and Administration Commission (of the People’s Republic of China)

SAT

State Administration of Taxation (of the People's Republic of China)

SCH

Shanghai Clearing House

SDR

Special Drawing Right

SEATO

Southeast Asian Treaty Organisation

SEC

Securities and Exchange Commission (of the United States)

SEHK

Stock Exchange of Hong Kong

SEZ

Special Economic Zone

SFC

Securities and Futures Commission (of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region)

SNB

Swiss National Bank

SOE

State-owned Enterprise

SWF

Sovereign Wealth Fund

SWIFT

Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication

TAF

Term Auction Facility

TARP

Troubled Asset Relief Programme

TPS

Transactions Per Second

TVE

Township and Village Enterprise

TWh

TeraWatt Hour(s)

UCITS

Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities

UK

United Kingdom

UN

United Nations

US

United States (of America)

USSR

Union of Soviet Socialist Republics

WMD

Weapons of Mass Destruction

WTI

West Texas Intermediate

WTO

World Trade Organisation

WW1

World War I

WW2

World War II

Chapter 1Introduction

今天，我主要讲一个问题，就是解放思想，开动脑筋，实事求是，团结一致向前看。

– 邓小平，1978 年中共中央工作会议

Today, I mainly want to discuss one question, namely, how to emancipate our minds, use our heads, seek truth from the facts and unite as one in looking to the future.

– Deng Xiaoping, Central Party Work Conference 1978

On Christmas Day 1991, the hammer and sickle flag was lowered over the Kremlin for the last time. It was a dry, still Wednesday morning and the temperature hovered around one degree above freezing, mild by Moscow standards for that time of year. With that, the Cold War had ended.

History would go on to record it as a triumph of capitalism over communism, and of liberal democracy over dictatorship. The euphoria of the period was famously captured in Francis Fukuyama's 1989 essay and subsequent book, declaring ‘The End of History’, with America's brand of capitalist democracy standing as ‘The Last Man’.1 Indeed, the US had become the sole superpower and the world basked in the glow of the Pax Americana. Even as the US was at the apex of its power, however, the seeds of future crises had been sown.

‘Free market’ ideology had been a major factor in America's victory in the Cold War and, by the fall of the Soviet Union (USSR), US financial markets, with the dollar at their core, had long since attained global leadership. The whole world had become dependent on an American-dominated financial system.

The victory of free market capitalism over communism was so convincing that political parties of the left had to become more centrist – if not outright right-wing – in order to win power. The epochal phrase ‘It's the economy, stupid’ was coined by campaign strategist James Carville during Bill Clinton's successful 1992 presidential campaign and summed up the prevailing mood in the US. Across the Atlantic, in 1995 Tony Blair's Labour Party in Great Britain abandoned Clause IV of the party's constitution, which had previously committed Labour to ‘common ownership of the means of production’. This was seen as a decisive step on the path towards Blair's election victory in 1997.

A significant outgrowth of this free market ideology were the monetarist economic policies advocated by Milton Friedman and economists of the Chicago school. Their popularisation was, in many ways, a reaction against the dominance of redistributive Keynesian economics that had prevailed since the end of World War II (WW2) but which had failed to meet economic challenges faced in the 1970s. The influence of monetarist economics was to have a profound impact on government and central bank policies around the world. The increased role for central banks in managing the money supply within economies de-emphasised fiscal policy and governments’ role in economic management.

Of course, the impact of the collapse of the Soviet Union was not just felt in economic and financial policy. As the sole superpower, the US was much freer to pursue and implement its strategic objectives across many spheres. When Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in August 1990, President George H.W. Bush took painstaking care to build broad international support through the United Nations (UN) Security Council and assembled a coalition of 35 nations before launching Operation Desert Storm to repel Iraqi forces from Kuwait. When his son, President George W. Bush, invaded Iraq in 2003, he did so notwithstanding explicit objections from UN Security Council members Russia and France, and amidst widespread international condemnation.

American military supremacy owes much to the role of the dollar in international trade and finance. US Treasuries make up roughly 60 percent of global central bank reserves,2 enabling the US government to finance its fiscal deficits cheaply and without any currency mis-match risk between its revenues and liabilities. Gradually, US policymakers came to realise that, through effective control of the global financial system, the dollar itself could be wielded as a weapon against strategic rivals.

The use of financial pressure and ‘geo-economic’ power in international diplomacy is nothing new. When Britain and France supported Israel's 1956 invasion of Egypt in a bid to topple Egyptian president Gamal Abdul Nasser and regain Western control of the Suez Canal, President Eisenhower used the threat of dumping British Gilts3 to force the withdrawal of the British and French troops. However, in the post-Cold War period, the exploitation of the dollar to achieve US diplomatic and strategic objectives was extended significantly.

Meanwhile, unlike the leaderships of the former Warsaw Pact countries, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) continued in power beyond the end of the Cold War. Nevertheless, the CCP had also seen a wave of protests that had threatened its rule in the form of the 1989 student movement. Deng Xiaoping's decision to crack down on that movement in Tiananmen Square on 4 June 1989 has been described as ‘one of the most consequential decisions in recent world history’.4 Whatever the morality of that decision, it was influenced both by China's own history of internal chaos when the central government had been weak, and by the experience of Gorbachev's Perestroika movement, which had led to significant political upheavals while failing to generate meaningful economic growth.

China had been pursuing gradual market and political reforms since Deng had come to power in 1978 and announced his ‘reform and opening up’ (改革开放) policies. In the wake of Tiananmen, however, the Chinese government significantly accelerated market reforms, or what China's leadership has called ‘socialism with Chinese characteristics’ (中国特色社会主义), while political reforms were for the most part shelved.

As China embarked upon on its own unique path of reform and growth, Chinese policymakers were able to draw on lessons learned from the West. They also paid close attention to developments in Russia in the years following the fall of communism, as well as to Japan's slump into economic stagnation following the end of the Japanese economic miracle. The resulting improvement in living standards for the Chinese population was unprecedented in history, with hundreds of millions of people being lifted from extreme poverty into the middle class within a generation.

The economic policies China has pursued since the 1990s have led to growth that has far exceeded the expectations of their original architects. Following its accession to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2001, China's export growth accelerated rapidly, and the country became the factory of the world. For some in the developed West, this provided great benefits, including low inflation, access to reasonably priced consumer goods and, increasingly, a huge new market for goods and services. For others, competition from China has led to displacement, wage stagnation and unemployment. Some, including many in the US, argue that China has engaged in unfair trade practices, such as suppressing the value of its currency to make its exports more competitive.5 Others argue that it is America's high cost structure that has made its exports uncompetitive, so it has only itself to blame.6 The truth, as is often the case, lies somewhere in the middle.

It is not unreasonable for China's leadership to pursue policies that improve the Chinese people's standard of living. The path that China followed was not substantially different to that followed by Japan and West Germany during their post-WW2 recoveries. In this regard, the CCP has done a pretty good job. As China's prosperity has increased, the government has tightened environmental codes and raised minimum wages. These are hardly the actions of a government that is pursuing a narrowly mercantilist trade agenda. At the same time, as trade and other imbalances grew, China's leadership was not proactive enough in addressing other countries’ concerns. Escalating tensions were exacerbated by the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and its aftermath.

Legacy of the GFC

The 2008 GFC was a watershed event in post-WW2 history. Its significance lies not in the crisis itself, which shared a pattern with countless other financial crises, but in its causes and consequences, as well as a major turning point that it marked.

The ostensible causes of the GFC were the excesses that had been allowed to build up in the US subprime mortgage market. It was a story of greed, hubris, regulatory failures and policy missteps. However, casting a broader eye over the history of the build-up of these excesses, it becomes apparent that the origins of the GFC lay in structural imbalances that had built up in the global financial system over many decades. These are explored in more detail in Chapter 3.

The consequences of the GFC have been far-reaching and, whether we are conscious of them or not, they will continue to impact societies around the world economically, politically and diplomatically for a long time to come.

First, the direct financial impact of the crisis was devastating to a huge number of people. Livelihoods, security and community all suffered. Faith in a financial and social system that had promised stability and prosperity for decades was shattered. And we have yet to identify a system to replace it.

Second, although America had already done much to undermine the legitimacy of its global leadership through unilateralist and aggressive post-Cold War international policies, the GFC brought issues into much sharper focus. Other countries began to question the status quo of the global order and it became a spur to action. Reduced willingness to follow America's lead has complicated and slowed down the process of decision making on matters of global importance. The pursuit by other countries of alternatives to US-dominated international organisations has also generated diplomatic tensions.

Third, policy actions during and subsequent to the crisis have, for the most part, treated the symptoms rather than the root causes of the disease. Regulatory reforms have made the banking system less vulnerable to financial shocks. However, more fundamental underlying problems have not been tackled. Continued reliance on monetary policy and market self-correction mechanisms has failed to revitalise key parts of the economy. In addition, the prolonged application of some treatments, such as extraordinarily low interest rates, have contributed to a widening wealth gap. This, in turn, has stoked greater societal tensions.

Fourth, as these domestic and international tensions have simmered, we have witnessed a descent into more populist and nationalistic politics in many countries. This is spreading tensions and conflicts across many spheres.

Looking back at the crisis and events since, it is also clear that the GFC marked a major turning point in Sino-US relations. The illusion of American omnipotence was shattered, and China's own self confidence increased. This increased China's willingness to challenge the US where it felt its own interests were at stake and ushered in a more assertive attitude in the conduct of its international affairs.

The focus of this book is the escalation in tensions between the US and China. There is a severe risk that a misdiagnosis of key sources of tensions will lead to the wrong treatments being applied, allowing conflicts to spread and become more aggravated. It is therefore critical to carefully examine the history of the Sino-US relationship, including its financial dimensions, to correctly identify the key issues that must be addressed.

Modern History of Sino-US Relations

After the CCP came to power in 1949, a rift opened between the US and China along the ideological lines of capitalism versus communism. As the Cold War got under way, the US applied the same strategy of ‘containment’ towards China that it employed with the Soviet Union. For three decades, the US did not officially recognise the People's Republic of China (PRC) and sought to limit its influence in and recognition by the outside world. For its part, China treated the US as a strategic enemy and sought to spread communist revolution in Southeast Asia, threatening US interests. The countries stood on opposing sides in two wars: in Korea (1950–1953) and in Vietnam (1955–1975).

The impetus for the thaw in relations that started with Henry Kissinger's secret visit to China in 1971 was their common desire to counterbalance the threat from the Soviet Union. It was a relationship based not on common ideals, but on a common enemy. The eventual normalisation in relations that came in 1978 left open the important question of the future of Taiwan. However, vast US military superiority meant that there was little immediate prospect that differences over the territory would boil over. Moreover, Deng Xiaoping was preoccupied with economic reforms after the ravages of decades of civil strife.

As the threat from the Soviet Union declined during the 1980s, both because of Mikhail Gorbachev's rise to power in 1985 and due to the implosion of communism itself, the basis of the Sino-US relationship evolved into one of commerce and trade. Trade was mutually beneficial in many ways, and China's economic reforms transformed the lives of most of the Chinese people for the better. However, the two countries’ social and political models remained poles apart. In 1989, a wave of protests erupted in China, calling for faster political reforms. The violent suppression of these became a flashpoint in Sino-US relations, since the CCP's actions offended American sensibilities over human rights and democracy.

In retrospect, comparing China's trajectory to that of Russia in the years since, it is hard to argue that a different course of action at that time would have resulted in a better outcome for the Chinese population as a whole. Reforms of the size and scope that China was pursuing had created significant internal conflicts both within the CCP leadership and across wider society. Deng's historic Southern Tour (南巡) in 1992 signalled his continued commitment to economic reforms. This was critical in overcoming internal opposition within the CCP and broader society to continuing reforms. George H.W. Bush took the decision not to leave China ostracised and out in the cold and, with the skilled stewardship of Zhu Rongji (朱镕基) – first as vice premier, then as premier – huge leaps forward were made in China's economic transformation. These included the introduction of market-based pricing mechanisms, monetary reforms to rein in runaway inflation, and privatisation of some of the sprawling state-owned enterprises (SOEs). He also successfully negotiated China's entry into the WTO, spurring a surge in foreign investment and exports.

Throughout this period, China's record on human rights was a recurring theme in the dialogue between the two countries. In part, this reflected public opinion in the US and its commitment to liberal democratic values. In part, it also served as a useful pretext when the US needed leverage in negotiations on other matters. Taiwan's continuous transformation into an ever more vibrant liberal democracy presented problems for both sides.

US actions in other parts of the world in the post-Cold War period significantly coloured China's views about US foreign policy. A number of events heightened insecurity among China's leadership. During the 1991 Gulf War, the ease with which US-led forces overran Saddam Hussein's army – then the fourth largest in the world – shocked China's military leaders.7 It highlighted the backwardness and vulnerability of the People's Liberation Army (PLA). Their insecurity was reinforced by Bill Clinton's decision to send two aircraft carriers to Taiwan during the Taiwan Strait crisis in 1996.8 China had become a net importer of crude oil that year. With 80 percent of China's oil imports passing through the narrow waterway connecting the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea, known as the Malacca Strait,9 American dominance of the sea lanes in close proximity to China posed a threat that key supplies would be cut off in the event of conflict. This focused the Chinese leadership's minds on maritime security.

The US-instigated North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) bombings of Yugoslav troops during the Kosovo War in 1999 also set a worrying precedent for China's leadership, who had strenuously opposed the action alongside Russia as interference in the internal affairs of another sovereign country. The pretext of humanitarian intervention, given continuous US attacks on China's human rights record, was a cause for serious concern to the CCP. The Bush Administration's pursuit of an invasion of Iraq in 2003 further compounded insecurities. The Chinese leadership saw little option other than to pursue comprehensive military modernisation as economic growth provided the financial means.

During the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, in contrast to other countries in the region, China resisted devaluing the renminbi. It was hoped that currency stability would demonstrate China's financial discipline and help maintain confidence in its economy, but it also served to bolster regional economic stability. As its balance of payments surplus, particularly versus the US, surged after the turn of the millennium, China then drew heavy criticism from US policymakers for holding down the value of its currency. China's manufacturing growth contrasted with a decline in America's manufacturing capacity and it became easy to blame China for the loss of American jobs. However, on closer inspection of China's manufacturing exports, the picture becomes rather less clear cut.

A high proportion of China's exports is in the processing trade and contains high import content. One estimate shows that, of the 7.4 percent GDP growth that China saw in 2014, consumption and investment accounted for 3.8 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively, meaning that net exports only contributed 0.6 percent to China's GDP growth that year.10 What is more, by 2018, although China's trade surplus with the US had reached $419 billion, its trade with the rest of the world was roughly balanced. That is to say that, while China has a huge balance of payments surplus versus the US, this is offset by a deficit that it is running with other nations and territories, including raw material exporters such as Australia and Brazil; and suppliers of intermediate goods and components, such as Korea and Taiwan.11 The US balance of payments deficit versus China is therefore more accurately depicted as a deficit that the US is running against the rest the world.

This deficit can be explained partly by America's comparative advantage in high technology, where core research and design are carried out in the US, while lower value manufacturing and assembly have been offshored to lower cost locations. Apple is a classic example of this. A China-assembled iPad that is sold in the US for $499 generates only around $8 for Chinese labour.12 In contrast, the Chinese market has generated huge profits for American companies such as Boeing, Nike, Starbucks and Disney.13

That is not to say that the US does not have valid grievances against China in areas of trade and financial policy. Foreign businesses operating in China have long complained that Chinese government policies discriminate against them, citing lack of regulatory transparency; inadequate protection of intellectual property; difficulty obtaining local licenses; and limited protections for their commercial secrets. There is a strong case that there is indeed a highly uneven playing field for foreign businesses in China.14 Given China's high level of domestic savings, there is also a legitimate complaint about the asymmetry between the relative ease of foreign investment into China's capital markets and the still-limited channels for foreign companies to raise capital from Chinese investors.

Many of these issues arise from the fact that China continues to feature a relatively overbearing state. This and continuing shortcomings in the transparency and consistency of the legal and regulatory system are problems that China's growing population of private businessmen and entrepreneurs also increasingly chafe against. The strength of Hong Kong's IPO market provides a good illustration of this. HKEX has been the top IPO venue globally in five of the 10 years up to the end of 2020, with Mainland Chinese companies accounting for 85 percent of the funds raised over that period.15 Although Chinese businesses seeking to raise money from public markets would reap far higher valuations by listing in Shanghai (上海) or Shenzhen (深圳),16 many private businessmen still prefer to IPO their companies in Hong Kong. The reasons for this include Hong Kong's relatively reliable legal and regulatory system; the ability for them to raise funds in a currency that is easily convertible; and the desire to protect their wealth from the Chinese authorities by moving part of it offshore.

The Chinese government is not unaware of the many problems and has been pursuing gradual reforms. Many of these reforms have been market-oriented and have better aligned China's practices with international norms, including the lowering of barriers to capital flows between China and international markets. However, given the flaws in the US financial and economic model highlighted by the GFC, many in China's leadership have become even more sceptical than before about US free market ideology. To successfully bring about further financial and economic reforms now, the case needs to be stronger than in the past. US coercion has had some impact but is likely to be met with continual resistance. Ultimately, it is likely that domestic forces will be the most effective in pushing the Chinese government towards change.

In the aftermath of the GFC, Chinese officials have no doubt displayed some level of conceit and a greater degree of assertiveness in their interactions with other countries.17 Following President's Xi Jinping's (习近平) coming to power in 2012, China has also stepped up the scale of its international ambitions, notably through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI, 一带一路), a grand infrastructure development strategy encompassing a large number of developing countries and trading partners. China's Made in China 2025 (中国制造 2025) strategy also seeks to upgrade China's industrial base from low value export manufactures to high technology value products and services. To a great extent, these initiatives are a far-sighted recognition, triggered by the GFC, that China cannot indefinitely depend on growth in exports to Western markets in light of the structural economic headwinds that those countries face. However, China's increasing international ambitions have been seen as a threat to the US, particularly as Xi's administration appears to be centralising more power within the CCP.

Since the Trump Administration launched its trade war with China in January 2018, the scope of the conflict has been widened from a pure focus on trade and tariffs. Sanctions have been applied against Chinese technology companies. US allies have been pressured to remove Chinese manufactured components from their telecommunications networks on national security grounds. Further, Chinese companies from sensitive sectors have been denied access to US capital markets. Officials from both countries have recently hurled incendiary accusations at each other and engaged in an unseemly war of words over the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic and interference in Hong Kong affairs.18 Some commentators believe that the US and China have entered – or are entering – into a ‘New Cold War’ or ‘Cold War II’.19 Some have even gone so far as to suggest that there are reasons to welcome this, believing that multidimensional Great Power competition will provide an impetus for human progress and help the US confront its recent political dysfunction.20

The Financial Roots of Sino-US Conflict

This book rejects the notion that the current Sino-US conflict is a New Cold War for three reasons.

First, there is a critical difference in the factors underlying tensions between China and the US today and those that precipitated the 20th century Cold War. In the late 1940s, there was no meaningful trade or investment between the US and the Soviet Union that could give rise to frictions. The primary driver of the Cold War was ideological, whereas financial factors have played a major role in stoking current Sino-US tensions. While it is undeniable that there are significant ideological differences between China and the US, far from seeking the overthrow of global capitalism, China has adopted significant aspects of the capitalist economic model and, although it has not fully embraced America's brand of free market ideology, it is today no more socialist than a great many European social democracies. These hardly present a threat to America's capitalist way of life.