Forecasting and Management of Technology E-Book

Alan L. Porter

• Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
• Kategorie: Fachliteratur
• Sprache: Englisch

Seitenzahl: 657

Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2011

Beschreibung

Published in 1991, the first edition of Forecasting and Management of Technology was one of the leading handful of books to deal with the topic of forecasting of technology and technology management as this discipline was emerging. The new, revised edition of this book will build on this knowledge in the context of business organizations that now place a greater emphasis on technology to stay on the cutting edge of development. The scope of this edition has broadened to include management of technology content that is relevant to now to executives in organizations while updating and strengthening the technology forecasting and analysis content that the first edition is reputed for.

Updated by the original author team, plus new author Scott Cunningham, the book takes into account what the authors see as the innovations to technology management in the last 17 years: the Internet; the greater focus on group decision-making including process management and mechanism design; and desktop software that has transformed the analytical capabilities of technology managers. Included in this book will be 5 case studies from various industries that show how technology management is applied in the real world.

Leseprobe

Table of Contents

Cover

Title

Copyright

Dedication

Acknowledgments

Chapter 1: Introduction

1.1 About This Book

1.2 Technology and Society

1.3 Management and the Future

1.4 Conclusions

References

Chapter 2: Technology Forecasting

2.1 What Is Technology Forecasting?

2.2 Methodological Foundations

2.3 Technology Forecasting Methods

2.4 Conclusion

References

Chapter 3: Managing the Forecasting Project

3.1 Information Needs of the Forecasting Project

3.2 Planning the Technology Forecast

3.3 Team Organization, Management, and Communications

3.4 Success: The Right Information at the Right Time

3.5 Project Scheduling

3.6 Conclusions

References

Chapter 4: Exploring

4.1 Establishing the Context—the TDS

4.2 Monitoring

4.3 The Stimulation of Creativity

4.4 Conclusion

References

Chapter 5: Gathering and Using Information

5.1 Expert Opinion

5.2 Gathering Information on the Internet

5.3 Structuring the Search

5.4 Preparing Search Results

5.5 Using Search Results

5.6 Developing Science, Technology, and Social Indicators

5.7 Communicating Search Results

5.8 Conclusions

References

Chapter 6: Analyzing Phase

6.1 Perspective on Data and Methods

6.2 Linear Regression and Extensions

6.3 Growth Models

6.4 Simulation

6.5 Monte Carlo Simulation

6.6 System Dynamics

6.7 Gaming

6.8 Software Suggestions

References

Chapter 7: Focusing Phase: Using Scenario Analysis

7.1 Uncertainty

7.2 Scenarios

7.3 Examples and Applications

7.4 Scenarios: Extensions and Advanced Techniques

7.5 Conclusions

References

Chapter 8: Economic and Market Analysis

8.1 The Context

8.2 Forecasting the Market

8.3 Forecasting the Economic Context

8.4 Forecasting in an Institutional Context

8.5 Conclusion

References

Chapter 9: Impact Assessment

9.1 Impact Assessment in Technology Forecasting

9.2 Impacts on Technology and Impacts of Technology

9.3 A Comprehensive Approach to Impact Assessment

9.4 Impact Identification

9.5 Impact Analysis

9.6 Impact Evaluation

9.7 Conclusion

References

Chapter 10: Cost-Benefit and Risk Analysis

10.1 Opportunity Costs and Choices

10.2 Cost-Benefit Analysis

10.3 Accounting for Risk and Uncertainty

10.4 Concluding the Focusing Phase

References

Chapter 11: Implementing the Technology

11.1 Forecasting Continues

11.2 Implementation Issues

11.3 Strategic Planning for Technology Implementation

11.4 Selecting from among Alternative Implementations of the Technology

11.5 Technology Roadmapping

11.6 Summary and Concluding Observations

References

Chapter 12: Managing the Present from the Future

12.1 The Overall Approach

12.2 Selecting Methods and Techniques

12.3 Alternative Perspectives

12.4 Learning from Past Forecasts and Assessments

12.5 Visions

12.6 A Final Word

References

Appendix A: Case Study on Forecasting Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells

A.1 Framing the Case Study

A.2 Methods

A.3 The Rest of the Story

References

Index

End User License Agreement

List of Tables

Chapter 2: Technology Forecasting

Table 2.1 What's Ahead for the 1990s?

Table 2.2 Megamistakes

Table 2.3 Five Underlying Approaches for Knowledge Generation

Table 2.4 Categorizing Technology Forecasting Methods

Chapter 3: Managing the Forecasting Project

Table 3.1 Innovation Origin Varies by Industry

Table 3.2 Myers-Briggs Types and Appropriate Technology Forecasting Approaches

Table 3.3 Initial List of Forecasting Project Tasks

Chapter 4: Exploring

Table 4.1 Monitoring Choices

Table 4.2 Management of Technology (MOT) Issues

Table 4.3 Framing Questions

Table 4.4 Typical Monitoring Tactics as a Function of Technological Stage of Development

Table 4.5 Random Trigger Words

Table 4.6 Example Morphological Analysis

Chapter 5: Gathering and Using Information

Table 5.1 Classification of Expert Opinion Techniques

Table 5.2 Best of the Best in Science

Table 5.3 Best of the Best in Engineering

Table 5.4 Best of the Best in Technology and Patenting

Table 5.5 Levels of Institutional Analysis

Table 5.6 Sources for Cultural Analyses

Table 5.7 Best of the Best in Political Economy of Technology

Table 5.8 Best of the Best in Strategic Management

Table 5.9 Best of the Best in Technology Trade and Marketing

Table 5.10 Breadth of Queries

Table 5.11 Units of Measurement

Table 5.12 Informing the Customer

Chapter 6: Analyzing Phase

Table 6.1 RFID Patent Issuance

Table 6.2 RFID Keyword Hits

Table 6.3

Table 6.4 Families of Growth Curves

Table 6.5

Table 6.6 Occurrence Matrix

Table 6.7 Nonoccurrence Matrix

Table 6.8 Marginal Probabilities

Table 6.9 Newspaper Demand

Table 6.10 Input Variables

Chapter 7: Focusing Phase: Using Scenario Analysis

Table 7.1 Categories of Knowledge

Table 7.2 Taxonomy of Variables for Scenario Analysis

Table 7.3 Simple 2x2 Dichotomy for Developing Scenarios

Chapter 8: Economic and Market Analysis

Table 8.1 Interindustry Transactions in $

Table 8.2 Direct Requirements Table

Table 8.3 Total Requirements Table: Direct and Indirect Effects per Dollar of Final Demand

Chapter 9: Impact Assessment

Table 9.1 Ten Steps of Impact Assessment

Chapter 10: Cost-Benefit and Risk Analysis

Table 10.1 Hypothetical Net Benefits for Projects A, B, and C (in thousands of $)

Table 10.2 NPV of Three Projects

Chapter 11: Implementing the Technology

Table 11.1 Stakeholder Preferences for Policy Scenarios

Table 11.2 Weighted Decision Matrix

Table 11.3 Outcome Matrix

Appendix A: Case Study on Forecasting Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells

Table A.1 Framework to Forecast NEST Innovation Pathways

Table A.2 Breakout for the Top 10 DSSC Research Organizations

List of Illustrations

Chapter 2: Technology Forecasting

Figure 2.1 Growth Phases and the S-Shaped Curve

Figure 2.2 Wenk and Kuehn’s TDS

Figure 2.3 A Generic TDS

Figure 2.4 A Governmental TDS

Chapter 3: Managing the Forecasting Project

Figure 3.1 Five Approaches to Structuring a Technology Forecasting Team

Figure 3.2 Example Project PERT Chart

Figure 3.3 Example Project Gantt Chart

Figure 3.4 Example Project PAC

Chapter 4: Exploring

Figure 4.1 A TDS for Innovation in U.S. Residential Solar Energy

Chapter 5: Gathering and Using Information

Figure 5.1 Delphi Respondent Summaries

Figure 5.2 An Input-Output Model of R&D

Figure 5.3 Relationships in the Data

Figure 5.4 Keyword Behavior Change as an Innovation Indicator

Figure 5.5 Nanotechnology Districts

Chapter 6: Analyzing Phase

Figure 6.1 Total Sign-ups for Second Life

Figure 6.2 Premium Account Growth

Figure 6.3 Initial Information Using Google Trends

Figure 6.4 Google Insights Search for RFID

Figure 6.5 Plot of Passive RFID Tags Sold with Fit

Figure 6.6 Alternative Growth Models for RFID: Fisher-Pry and Gompertz

Figure 6.7 Chart of Random Uniform Values

Figure 6.8 Histogram of 400 Trials of Policy

Figure 6.9 Distribution of NPV of Savings from an RFID Investment

Figure 6.10 Causal Diagram of Technology Adoption

Figure 6.11 Stock-and-Flow Diagram

Figure 6.12 Graphical Output from the Model

Figure 6.13 Decision Tree for an Identification System

Chapter 7: Focusing Phase: Using Scenario Analysis

Figure 7.1 Identifying and Measuring Scenario Variables

Figure 7.2 Matrix of Acceptable Combinations of Scenario Variables

Figure 7.3 Graphical Representation of a Transition Matrix

Figure 7.4 Transitions, Ranked and Simplified

Chapter 9: Impact Assessment

Figure 9.1 Impact Tree for Coal Mining

Chapter 10: Cost-Benefit and Risk Analysis

Figure 10.1 NPV of Three Projects

Figure 10.2 Market Demand and Consumer Surplus

Figure 10.3 Market Supply and Producers' Surplus

Chapter 11: Implementing the Technology

Figure 11.1 Digraph Representation of Outcomes

Appendix A: Case Study on Forecasting Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells

Figure A.1 Nano-enhanced Solar Cell Attributes by Time Array

Figure A.2 The DSSC TDS

Figure A.3 Quantity and Influence of DSSC Publications (SCI) for the Top Five Countries

Figure A.4 DSSC Research Overlaid on the Base Map of Science

Figure A.5 DSSC Research Publication Trends

Figure A.6 Cross-charting: From Nanomaterial to Application for DSSCs

Figure A.7 DSSC Corporate Connections

Guide

Cover

Table of Contents

Begin Reading

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FORECASTING AND MANAGEMENT OF TECHNOLOGY

Second Edition

ALAN THOMAS ROPER

SCOTT W. CUNNINGHAM

ALAN L. PORTER

THOMAS W. MASON

FREDERICK A. ROSSINI

JERRY BANKS

Copyright © 2011 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved

Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey

Published simultaneously in Canada

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, [phone], fax [phone], or on the web at www.copyright.com. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, [phone], fax [phone], or online at www.wiley.com/go/permissions.

Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the Publisher and the author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a professional where appropriate. Neither the Publisher nor the author shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages.

For general information about our other products and services, please contact our Customer Care Department within the United States at [phone], outside the United States at [phone] or fax [phone].

Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats. Some content that appears in print may not be available in electronic books. For more information about Wiley products, visit our web site at www.wiley.com.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data:

Forecasting and management of technology / Alan Thomas Roper … [et al.]. – 2nd ed.

p. cm.

Includes index.

ISBN 978-0-470-44090-2 (hardback); 978-0-470-95161-3 (ebk); 978-0-470-95178-1 (ebk); 978-1-118-04798-9 (ebk); 978-1-118-04816-0 (ebk); 978-1-118-04818-4 (ebk); 978-1-118-04821-4 (ebk)

1. Technological forecasting. I. Roper, A. T. (Alan Thomas), 1936-

T174.F67 2011

601′.12–dc22

2011012199

Tom R.: To my wife, Karen Roper, without whom I would still be interested only in airplanes

Scott: To my wife Lucie, my son Loc, and my mother Joan

Alan: To my wife, Claudia

Tom M.: To my wife, Sandy Mason, for sharing my life with me, and to all the innovators who have inspired me

Fred: To my wife, Ann Mahoney

Jerry: To Danny, Zack, Emma, Grace, and Zoey

Acknowledgments

The authors gratefully acknowledge the contributions of Dr. Jill Slinger, at the Delft University of Technology, for her contributions to the discussion of simulation and forecasting in Chapter 6. The authors also appreciate the extensive contributions of Ying Guo to chapter 13, a case study on technology forecasting for solar cells.

Chapter 1Introduction

Chapter Summary: This chapter gives a preview of this book, its motivation, audiences, major themes, and differences from the first edition. It is intended to give the reader an overview and a framework within which to place the chapters that follow.

1.1 About This Book

The intent of this book is to make better managers for the twenty-first century. Almost any organization succeeds or fails because of the decisions of its managers. Evidence shows that the most critical role of managers is to anticipate and drive changes in both their organization and perhaps the world with which it interacts. For example, Henry Ford's decision to produce a motorcar for the masses dramatically altered life in the twentieth century. Technology is a primary cause of change. If managers are not successful in anticipating and rapidly adapting, the constantly changing environment will render their carefully designed structures unproductive. This is well known by the current managers of Ford, who have had to struggle for the company's survival.

The first edition of this book emphasized that technology is the key to productivity and change is a fact of life. Thus, technology managers must be able to forecast and assess technological change to obtain competitive advantage. Managers now embrace this view, and add global thinking and continuous, at times radical, technical change as essential survival skills. Much has been written about the potential and the difficulty of forecasting and managing technology as well as about the importance of knowledge as the basis of national, corporate, and individual prosperity. This book focuses on practical tools to produce information for making effective decisions about the future and on the actions needed to mold that information.

The intended audiences for this book range from upper-level undergraduate and graduate students to experienced managers: present and future decision makers who want more rigorous techniques to guide decisions rather than relying solely on intuition and conventional wisdom. The tools and discussions presented here should be accessible to those who have studied business or social science, as well as to those with science and engineering backgrounds. While some books treat technology as one factor in management, this book provides the tools to make future technology a major component of strategy development for both executive and operational decisions.