Global Perspectives on Megatrends E-Book

Berthold M. Kuhn

• Herausgeber: ibidem
• Kategorie: Geisteswissenschaft
• Sprache: Englisch

Seitenzahl: 600

Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2022

Beschreibung

Berthold M. Kuhn and Dimitrios L. Margellos present a thoroughly reflected analysis of global trends shaping our future. Key megatrends include climate change and sustainability, digitalization, growing inequalities, urbanization and smart cities, the progression toward a green economy, and sustainable finance. Addressing geopolitical shifts and the future of multilateralism, the authors also discuss new trends in democracy and governance, migration, and health and nutrition, as well as civilizational developments like demography, diversity, identity politics, individualization, and shifting gender norms. Based on their own research and a series of interviews with leading analysts and researchers from different world regions, the authors present cutting-edge content on the future of humanity.

Leseprobe

ibidem Press, Stuttgart

Table of Contents

Introduction

Chapter 1 How to Identify Global Megatrends?

1.1 Previous Studies on Megatrends

1.2 The Pentagon Model

1.3 Visions, Risks, and Trends

1.4 Global-local Nexus

Chapter 2 Who Shapes the Future?

2.1 Shapers

2.2 Think Tanks

2.3 Consulting Firms

2.4 International Cooperation and Global Governance

Chapter 3 Climate Action and Sustainability

3.1 The Extent of the Risk

3.2 Global Agendas for Sustainability Policies and Climate Action

3.3 What Kind of Action is Needed?

3.4 Growing Engagement of International Organizations, Research, and Advocacy Groups

3.5 Climate Actions at the Level of Cities

3.6 The Future of Climate Action and Sustainability Transformations

3.7 Sustainable Tourism

Chapter 4 Digitalization

4.1 Dimensions of Digital Growth: New Business Opportunities

4.2 Artificial Intelligence (AI)

4.3 Data Protection and Cybersecurity

4.4 Governance of Cyberspace and Anti-trust Legislation

4.5 Digitalization and Sustainability

Chapter 5 Inequality

5.1 Dimensions of Inequality

5.2 Measuring Inequality

5.3 Drivers of Inequality

5.4 Tackling Inequality

Chapter 6 Demography

6.1 Diversity of Demography Trends

6.2 Aging Societies

6.3 Demography and Other Megatrends

Chapter 7 Urbanization and Smart Cities

7.1 Drivers of Urbanization

7.2 Smart Cities

7.3 Urbanization and Other Megatrends

7.4 The Greening of the Construction Sector

Chapter 8 Health and Nutrition

8.1 The Globalization of Health

8.2 The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic

8.3 The Future of Health Systems

8.4 The Future of Food and Eating

Chapter 9 Green Economy

9.1 Green Economy and Green Growth

9.2 Green Growth versus Degrowth

9.3 International Cooperation in Support of the Green Economy

Chapter 10 Sustainable Finance

10.1 From Ethical Investment to Sustainable Finance

10.2 Mainstreaming of Sustainable Finance

10.3 Greenwashing of Investment Strategies

Chapter 11 Democracy and Governance Innovations

11.1 Concepts, Discourses, and Political Trends

11.2 Empirical Democracy Research and Proliferation of Index Projects

11.3 Practices of Participatory and Consultative Democracy

Chapter 12 Multipolar World Order and the Future of Multilateralism

12.1 Hegemonic Shift?

12.2 The Rise of China: How Long Will it Last?

12.3 Old and New Western Alliances

12.4 The Geopolitical Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic

12.5 The Future of Multilateralism

Chapter 13 Civilizational Developments: Diversity, Individualization and Loneliness, Gender Shift, and Identity Politics

13.1 Diversity Trends

13.2 Individualization and Loneliness

13.3 Gender Shift

13.4 Identity Politics

Chapter 14 Migration

14.1 Rising Numbers of Migrants

14.2 Migration as Subject of Political Controversies

14.3 The Future of Migration and Migration Management

Chapter 15 Visions for the World in 2030 and Beyond

15.1 Outlook on Megatrends

15.2 Vision Talk: Three Experts Share their Future Perspectives

Introduction

This book presents an analysis of megatrends and emerging issues that will strongly influence different spheres of life in many countries and at different levels, covering political, economic, natural environmental, social, and cultural dimensions.

To identify megatrends, we used the Pentagon Model, a framework developed by Berthold Kuhn in the context of his research and teaching activities at Freie Universität Berlin. It focuses on five criteria to prioritize big trends: (1) level of coverage by research activities, (2) level of political attention, (3) level of interest to global investors and business communities, (4) level of media coverage, and (5) attention paid by social movements.

The analyses of the twelve prioritized megatrends that we identified are based on a comprehensive review of reports on economic, technological, socio-cultural, and political developments, on various exchanges with think tanks and international organizations, and on a series of interviews with analysts and researchers from different countries and world regions with various disciplinary and professional backgrounds, and a mix of age groups and genders.

This book aims to analyze the relevance and the potential impact of twelve megatrends, but it also presents a critical reflection on different aspects of these trends. We make due reference to the work of international organizations, especially the United Nations, leading think tanks, research networks, and experts. The motivation to write this book stemmed from our passion to understand the challenges and opportunities that humanity faces in the next decade, and to learn about new research, business models, and initiatives trying to make the world a better place. Translating this passion into easily digestible and well-communicated writing to inform those interested in the future is at the heart of this book.

Berthold Kuhn’s engagement with trends has provided him a rich variety of beneficial insights across a range of issues. His pro­ven record in forecasting key developments and emerging issues related to climate action and sustainable finance, among other trends, and his extensive contacts with leading researchers and analysts from different world regions motivated him to write this book. He works at Freie Universität (FU) Berlin and as an adviser to international cooperation agencies and think tanks. He is a father of three children and currently lives with his family in Berlin, but has worked and lived in many cities on different continents. The book benefited from many vivid discussions with co-author Dimitrios Margellos, who produced the summaries of the expert interviews and made some substantial contributions to the chapters on Inequality, Digitalization, and Health. Furthermore, the book benefited from exchanges with colleagues and students at FU Berlin and FU Berlin’s partner universities.

The COVID-19 pandemic and its global economic and social consequences have triggered a new wave of interest in future risks and trends. COVID-19 has made it clear to many of us that crisis situations can accelerate change. Millions of lives have been lost. Family life and work have been disrupted. The lockdowns have caused financial disasters, companies and nations have faced innumerable challenges, and the lives of many people have been decimated. However, the restrictions have also sparked innovations and raised the importance and acceptance of research and researchers in public opinion.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine shocked people in Europe and across the world during the time the co-authors completed the manuscript of this book. The massive economic sanctions launched by the United States (U.S.), the European Union (EU) and many countries, will heavily impact on trade, economic and political cooperation. They were meant to halt Putin’s expansionist military operations, but will have serious repercussions on Europe and other parts of the world, too. The co-authors have predicted more geopolitical assertions in the context of an increasingly multi-polar world order (chapter 12). While the analysis remains valid, the war in Ukraine goes against conventional wisdom and poses more questions than anybody has answers for.

The Russian economy was relatively disconnected from many important megatrends which may have added to Russia’s geopolitical assertion by military means. Under the current regime this trend will not be reversed, and Russia and its closest allies will bear dire consequences of its decoupling with many powerful economies.

This book will also pay due attention to the rise of China, which has challenged Western societies, economic policies, and political systems in many ways. China’s growing influence is subject to a significant number of expert analyses. Graham Allison coined the term “the Thucydides Trap” which refers to the likelihood of violent encounters between a rising power and an incumbent hegemon. The former German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer is one of many authors who refer to the analysis of Thucydides, one of the greatest historians, on the rise of a rival power.

The rise of China has indeed surprised most political scientists. China has been underestimated for a long time, especially by political scientists in the United States and Europe. For decades now, China has been increasing its influence all over the world and in international relations, but it is now faced with growing attempts to curtail its influence in the context of systemic rivalry declared by the United States and the European Union. However, we refrain from overestimating China and neglecting development in other parts of the world. We have interviewed experts from many different countries and world regions to present diverse perspectives on megatrends. Global governance will be more multipolar than in the form of world order we have experienced in recent decades. This book is meant to provide a framework for reflection and analysis of trends that will shape the future of humanity.

Chapter 1How to Identify Global Megatrends?

Megatrend has become a kind of buzzword mostly used by futurists or consulting firms trying to sell their analyses of emerging business opportunities. However, a growing number of research institutions, international organizations, and think tanks are reflecting on megatrends with the purpose of engaging in dialogue and influence policymaking. For many of them, megatrends are defined more broadly and in line with the short definition provided in the Introduction to this book.

Global megatrends are trends that strongly influence different spheres of life in many countries and at different levels, covering political, economic, natural environmental, social, and cultural dimensions.

This book is based on our own research as well as on expertise and insights from analysts and researchers from different professional backgrounds and world regions. We aim to present a state-of-the-art analysis of trends and topics of global relevance which will shape the future of both our generation and those that follow.

1.1 Previous Studies on Megatrends

This is not the first book which aims to identify megatrends that will shape future global development. John Naisbitt was a pioneer of future studies. His book Megatrends: Ten New Directions Transforming Our Lives was first published in 1982. It focused mainly on the United States but also attempted to present a global outlook. Naisbitt accurately predicted the change from industrialized to information societies. He did not exactly forecast the rise of social media but anticipated the growing importance of social interactions in the context of technological development. He also predicted the trend toward globalization which shaped the decades after the publication of the book. He was not able to forecast important world historical events such as the collapse of the Soviet Union or the rise of China and was wrong about the potential of some sub-trends, like online shopping.1His co-author, Patricia Aburdene, later published her own books on future trends. One of them is called Megatrends 2010: The Rise of Conscious Capitalism.2 It received significant attention in the business community and helped to promote the trend of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) which had taken off around the year 2000 when the Global Compact of the United Nations was launched.

Richard Watson, who advises organizations in the field of scenario planning and strategic foresight, published his book Future Files in 2008. In his book he elaborates on five trends that will shape the next 50 years: aging; the power shift eastwards; global connectivity; GRIN technologies, referring to Genetics, Robotics, Internet, and Nanotechnology; and the environment. His focus is predominantly on the U.S. and the Anglo-Saxon world, though he is also conscious of developments in Asia and the Middle East. The environment is somewhat half-heartedly addressed.

The European Environmental Agency defines global megatrends as follows: “Global megatrends are global, long-term trends that are slow to form but have a major impact once in place. They are the great forces that are likely to affect the future in all areas throughout the world over the next 10 to 15 years. Furthermore, they are often strongly interconnected.”3

Today it is easier for pundits to learn, analyze, and forecast developments in other parts of the world. We live in a much more globalized world with better access to data and information. This explains why we are witnessing a strong growth of think tanks and/organizations engaged in future studies and strategic foresight. Most of the leading think tanks are situated in the United States and Europe but other parts of the world are catching up, including China and India. Think tanks typically conduct research, engage in policy dialogue activities, and provide advice to policymakers.

The larger think tanks, including the Bertelsmann Foundation (based in Gütersloh, Germany), Brookings (Washington D.C.), Bruegel (Brussels), Carnegie (Washington D.C.), Chatham House, (London), the Center for China and Globalization (Beijing), and many others, have global outreach. Since the 1990s, we have seen a growing number of reports and academic publications dealing with future analysis and megatrends. There are now many smaller and medium-sized institutes and associations that explicitly deal with forecasts, future research, and megatrends. The Association of Professional Futurists (APF) was founded in 2002 and has more than 500 members. It emerged as a network of practicing futurists who act as analysts, consultants, and speakers.

The Economist Intelligence Unit, a global frontrunner of business intelligence, has established a Global Forecasting Unit, currently headed by Agathe Demarais. In Germany, the Zukunftsinstitut (The Future Institute), is one of the leading names for future research. Matthias Horx has presented a number of well-referenced analyses and well-visualized maps for understanding future trends and how they are interconnected. In Switzerland, Swissfuture, an association of researchers focusing on future trends, contributes to the systematic and method-based examination of the future. The U.S.-based Future Today Institute pays special attention to technology trends. Some of the business-oriented organizations tend to pursue a technology-oriented method and, thus, engage in a rather narrow approach to megatrends.

International organizations and government policy initiatives make significant contributions to future-oriented analysis, too. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has implemented a technical assistance project on “Demonstrating Future Thinking and Foresight in Developing Member Countries” and/organized futures and foresight workshops with government experts.4 The World Bank is well known for engaging in forward-looking economic analysis with many countries. One of its publications on the open knowledge platform focuses on “Outlook 2050” and strategies to support countries on their way to decarbonization. We have seen a number of “Vision 2020,” “Vision 2025,” and economic foresight studies from various countries and institutions outlining scenarios and strategies to cope with future challenges. Although none of the reports predicted the COVID-19 pandemic, they are far from irrelevant. Such reports and programs give us an idea of the agenda of political leaders and decision-makers in influential institutions and multinational companies. Their agenda matters and shapes trends. Examples include Made in China 2025, India’s Vision 2020, Saudi Vision 2030, and Project Ireland 2040, which are all underpinned by big investment decisions and ambitious work plans.

It is useful to glance through policy reform and economic planning documents at the country level. However, in the context of this book we have focused more on independent and in-depth analyses of future trends published by think tanks and eminent researchers. Chapter 2 will focus on who is shaping and researching megatrends and will pay special attention to the work of think tanks. Consulting companies specializing in strategic advice on future challenges are also trend-setters. Most of them focus on new technologies. However, many of them have adopted more global and broader views and have elaborated on trends such as sustainability transformation, climate change, smart cities, and inequality.

The Bertelsmann Foundation is a major think tank in Germany which has launched a series of megatrend reports. One of its flagship reports identifies three global trends: globalization, demographic change, and digitalization.5 Climate change, sustainability issues, and inequality are missing from this list even though the foundation engages in these issues in various contexts.

PwC prioritizes five trends: rapid urbanization, climate change and resource scarcity, the shift in global economic power, demographic and social change, and technological breakthroughs.6

The European Environmental Agency (EEA) has also worked on megatrends and identified clusters of drivers of change:

Cluster 1: Growing, urbanizing, and migrating global population;

Cluster 2: Climate change and environmental degradation worldwide;

Cluster 3: Increasing scarcity of and global competition for resources;

Cluster 4: Accelerating technological change and convergence;

Cluster 5: Power shifts in the global economy and geopolitical landscape;

Cluster 6: Diversifying values, lifestyles, and governance approaches.7

Though not explicitly related to trends, one of the most important global reference frameworks is the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the 17 Sustainable Development Goals which cover aspects of economic, social, and environmental development and stress partnerships at different levels (SDG 17). The 17 Goals were adopted by all member states of the United Nations in 2015, as part of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development which set out a 15-year plan to achieve the Goals.8 The German Agency for International Cooperation, die Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), explicitly states that “Global megatrends provide the backdrop for the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.”9China and many other countries across all continents produced reports on the SDGs highlighting their commitment and strategy for implementation. The SDGs have spread to a growing number of institutions across the world, the business and finance community, and civil society organizations. Civil society organizations were pioneers in working on issues of sustainable development cutting across sectoral policymaking goals. The concept of sustainable development has been promoted by many activists across the world. One of the leading proponents has been Anil Kumar Agarwal, the founder-director of the Centre for Science and Environment, one of India’s leading environmental NGOs. The 2030 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals will receive special attention in this book as they indeed constitute a powerful reference framework for action, not only at the level of states but also for the private sector, the financial industry, and civil society initiatives.

1.2 The Pentagon Model

We propose a relatively simple framework to identify and prioritize megatrends. We call it the Pentagon Model. It focuses on five criteria relating to the relevance of trends.

The five key criteria, the pentagon factors, that make up a megatrend are the following:

Research and, particularly, research coverage of the trend by researchers and analysts from different disciplinary background in different countries and regions.

Level of political attention for the trend in a significant number of countries and regions.

Significant interest from global investors. This acknowledges that investments have great potential to promote trends.

Media coverage of the trend. This refers to traditional media and social media.

Strength of social movements and advocacy actions related to the trend.

These factors represent different spheres of societies: scientific and research, state, and government institutions; financial and business sectors; media; and civil society. When we introduce certain megatrends, we shall quickly see that the aforementioned factors are all met.

We emphasize these five different factors because we see many business consulting firms using the term megatrend. In our understanding, megatrends affect not only the business world but also societies as a whole.

Figure 1.1: Pentagon Model of Megatrends

Source: Berthold M. Kuhn

In constructing and subsequently putting to use this model, we have thus come up with the following twelve global trends, which will shape the future in the next 10–15 years.

Global Megatrends:

Climate Action and Sustainability;

Digitalization;

Inequality;

Demography;

Urbanization and Smart Cities;

Health and Nutrition;

Green Economy;

Sustainable Finance;

Multipolar World Order and the Future of Multilateralism;

Democracy and Governance Innovations;

Civilizational Developments: Diversity, Individualization and Loneliness, Gender Shift, and Identity Politics;

Migration.

The trends of climate action and sustainability, digitalization, and inequality will be presented first. We regard these as the most universal trends, though we do not propose a detailed ranking of trends because many of them are closely interconnected.

Climate change is already affecting our lives and our very existence on Earth and will continue to do so in such a way that sustainability transformations are needed across countries and sectors, including in energy production, mobility, and housing. New business models and the financial sector will play critical roles in supporting sustainability transformations.

Climate change receives major attention from researchers from different disciplines. We are also witnessing a proliferation of government policies tackling climate change, while climate protection has become a decisive factor for investment decisions, which also drives new business models. Climate change is extensively covered by the media and is addressed by a large number of civil society organizations. It is at the very origin of the emergence of new social movements, such as the teenage movement Fridays for Future, and Extinction Rebellion.

While digitalization seems to primarily affect the business sector and the investment community, it is also promoted by government policies, including education policies, and extensively discussed by civil society and social movements—for example by trade unions in the context of “the future of work.” It affects almost every aspect of our daily life, from online shopping and dating to education and digital health.

Inequality is the subject of many research projects and remains a chief concern for almost all governments in all countries. Globalization has exacerbated inequality in many ways and affects policymaking and investment decisions—for example, in the field of housing. The media cover inequality extensively and the issue is addressed by many different social and political movements.

1.3 Visions, Risks, and Trends

How do megatrends emerge? We can distinguish between push and pull factors that influence trends. Push factors refer to crisis situations and risks; pull factors to visions for a better future. Push factors could include a pollution crisis which is hazardous to our health; pull factors could be technological aspirations.

It is also worth thinking about intended and unintended consequences of human actions and how they relate to trends, either strengthening or weakening them. Intended consequences of research, business, or policy initiatives are meant to achieve set objectives. Unintended consequences are those which are not proactively pursued but hard to avoid.

In many situations, conditions are met so that both push and pull factors reinforce each other, support new developments, and set new trends. In all of the following trends we do indeed witness intended and unintended consequences.

Joseph A. Schumpeter, known for his theories on innovation and entrepreneurship, highlighted disruption as a driver for change through innovation. Schumpeter is regarded as one of the greatest economists of the first half of the twentieth century. He introduced the concept of “creative destruction,” which he considered the driving force for innovation. Entrepreneurs perform the function of the change creator. He also emphasized the importance of a well-developed financial system that provides access to capital for investment.10

Disruptions are driven by efforts to master crisis situations, to address risks, and to overcome problems. In this regard, megatrends are collective efforts to cope with risks and challenges and to respond to crisis situations. This is evident for climate change and climate action. We need ambitious climate mitigation policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to avoid rising temperatures, rising sea levels, and extreme weather events. We also need ambitious climate adaptation policies to make our cities and our urban and rural livelihoods more resilient to the effects of climate change that already occur and will occur in the future, irrespective of our present-day action. Burning fossil-fuels produces irreversible damage as emissions stay in the atmosphere for a long time, since we have not scaled up carbon capture and storage technologies in a massive way—this is an unrealistic option given the efforts and costs involved at present.

COVID-19 is a prime example of how a crisis has accelerated an already existing trend, that of digitalization. Digitalization is a means to effectively respond to many logistical challenges, to ease global communication—for example, in times of lockdowns imposed by COVID-19 policies; and to manage, exchange, and analyze bigger data that could provide us with more accurate guidance and offer a range of automated services, including driving cars or organizing mobility services.

Inequality on the other hand is a trend that concerns the unintended consequences of change and development processes. Inequality is about variations of living standards across a given population or across the whole world. This is different from poverty. While poverty—defined mainly in terms of low-income levels, lack of well-being, and lack of access to facilities and services—has diminished massively in several countries and regions, the same cannot be said for inequality. Throughout human history, rising inequality has been perceived as a crisis situation and has led to the emergence of political and social movements driven by visions to curb inequality, sometimes using revolutionary means that have transformed political systems in fundamental ways.

In the world of finance, trends are closely associated with risks. Stock markets are very sensitive to risks by anticipating and setting trends and directing investment away from increasingly risky assets to sustainable business models. Tesla is a prime example. It’s stock market value already exceeded the value of all other major car companies when Tesla still produced huge losses every day, while other companies delivered big profits.

We have consulted several global risk reports which are meant to stimulate thinking on strategies to cope with risks. The most prominent one is the “Global Risk Report” of the World Economic Forum (WEF). The 50th anniversary of the Forum in 2020 focused on “Stakeholders for a Cohesive and Sustainable World.” Climate change is regarded as a key challenge for sustainable development, whereas inequality is recognized as a major threat to social and political cohesion.

The Global Risk Reports of the WEF distinguish between different categories of risks:

Economic;

Environmental;

Geopolitical;

Societal;

Technological.

WEF reports on the likelihood and impact of risks. This is a simple but powerful methodology to arrive at a ranking of risks and stimulate discussion on which actions are urgently needed to address risks and challenges.

Already in the year 2020, the World Economic Forum’s top risks fall into the category of the environment, and they all rank very high in likelihood: extreme weather, climate action failure, natural disasters, biodiversity loss, and human-made environmental disasters.11

The 2021 Global Risk Report12 and 2022 Global Risk Reports of the WEF distinguishes between three different risks horizon: 0–2 years (clear and present dangers), 2–5 years (knock-on effects), and 5–10 years (existential threats). In the 2022 report, extreme weather events rank top in the 0–2 years horizon and climate action failure ranks top in the 2–5 year and 5–10 year horizon.13

1.4 Global-local Nexus

Megatrends play out in different ways in different localities. Understanding trends is about understanding the context of the changing environment we are living in. This helps us to anticipate and to prepare for challenges in the future.

The slogan “think global, act local” is about how to harmonize contextual factors with one’s own sphere of life. The original phrase has been attributed to the Scottish town planner and activist Patrick Geddes, who believed that we should consider and work with the environment rather than ignoring or working against it. Some environmental activists have modified the phrase “think global, act local” to “act globally, act locally,” demonstrating their commitment to influencing political decisions, pushing for global, regional, and national agreements, and acting in different places at the same time to protect the biosphere and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Jeremy Rifkin, the author of more than 20 books about the impact of scientific and technological changes on the economy, the workforce, society, and the environment, makes notable points in his new book The Green New Deal.14 He urges that “we move toward emphatic impulses to larger collectivities and worldviews” considering that information flows facilitate actions of solidarity and empathy in a globalized world.

Protecting the global commons, which include the Earth’s shared natural resources—the high seas, the atmosphere, the Antarctic, and outer space—is everybody’s concern, everywhere, though to different degrees. Many forms of pollution, in particular air pollution, cross borders. Overfishing in one place affects livelihoods and business in other places. The loss of biosphere, land degradation, and deforestation not only impacts the local environment but also affects the global climate in negative ways. For many people such consequences are too abstract to influence their daily lives, but there is ample scientific evidence that it is precisely the high level of ignorance of global contextual knowledge that could threaten the very existence of life on Earth, at least in its present forms in some places.

We begin by exploring climate action, but before we do so, it is vital to address the question of who is shaping these megatrends and the world at large in the first place. This question often conjures images of borderline conspiratorial nature, but it is our goal to show that this is evidently not the case. There are more than enough people, organizations, companies, and think tanks all contributing, to different extents, to shaping the future, and we will explore these dynamics in the next chapter.

1 Naisbitt, John (1982). Megatrends. Ten New Directions Transforming Our Lives. New York: Warner Books.

2 Aburdene, Patricia (2007). Megatrends 2010. The Rise of Conscious Ca­pitalism. Hampton Roads Publishing.

3 European Environmental Agency (EEA) (2021). Drivers of Change: Challenges and Opportunities for Sustainability in Europe.https://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/sustainability-transitions/drivers-of-change

4 Asian Development Bank (April, 2020). Future Thinking in Asia and the Pacific. Why Foresight Matters for Policy Makers. https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/579491/futures-thinking-asia-pacific-policy-makers.pdf

5 Bertelsmann Foundation (2019). The Bigger Picture: How Globalization, Digitalization and Demographic Change Challenge the World, Gütersloh.

6 Pwc United Kingdom (n.d.) Megatrends. https://www.pwc.co.uk/issues/megatrends.html, accessed,accessed on 10 February, 2022.

7 EEA (2022). Drivers of Change: Challenges and Opportunities for Sustainability in Europe, last modified January 14, 2022. https://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/sustainability-transitions/drivers-of-change

8 United Nations (2015). The United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/development-agenda/ (regularly updated).

9 GIZ (2017). Trends and the Future of Development Cooperation. https://reporting.giz.de/2017/our-strategic-direction/strategy-and-outlook/trends-and-the-future-of-development-cooperation/index.html

10 Innovation is the “creative destruction” that develops the economy while the entrepreneur performs the function of the change creator, see: Śledzik,Karol (2013). Schumpeter’s View on Innovation and Entrepreneurship. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/256060978_Schumpeter's_View_on_Innovation_and_Entrepreneurship

11 World Economic Forum (WEF) (2020). Global Risks Report 2020, https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-global-risks-report-2020

12 WEF (2021). Global Risks Report 2021. https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-global-risks-report-2021

13 WEF (2022). Global Risks Report 2022. What You Need to Know, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/01/global-risks-report-climate-change-covid19/

14 Rifkin, Jeremy (2020). The Green New Deal. New York. St. Martin’s Griffin.

Chapter 2Who Shapes the Future?

This book covers twelve megatrends. We have conducted extensive research on all of these trends, but we do not claim that we have become leading experts in each of them. Instead, bearing in mind the limits of our knowledge, we approached many researchers and analysts from different academic disciplines, professional backgrounds, countries, world regions, age groups, and genders, to provide us with advice and the necessary information on salient issues shaping these trends. The experts (see Table of Interviews) are all well networked with different kinds of affiliations to think tanks and universities and other institutions from the public, private, and non-profit sectors. They have a deep understanding of the topics we discussed with them and provided us with analyses which often went well beyond the state of the art of mainstream research, analysis, and media reporting.

In addition to the experts whom we interviewed for the chapters on megatrends, we also approached experts in future studies to share their ideas with us. Experts in future studies, often called ‘futurists’ are experts who systematically explore predictions and possibilities about the future. Many of them publish books, offer advisory services, and engage in dialogue with policymakers. The World Future Studies Federation (WFSF) is a UNESCO and UN consultative partner and global NGO with members in over 60 countries. 

Futurists claim to have a good overview of emerging trends and state-of-the-art expertise in strategic foresight. Only a few, however, have deeper knowledge of specific topics. Our methodology consisted of combining our own analysis with the analysis of researchers, analysts, and futurists. In this final chapter, “Visions for the World in 2030 and Beyond,” two renowned futurists and a very well-networked manager, book editor, and author on issues and trends of future concern came together for an interview with us. Their views are meant to complement our analysis based on megatrend research and the interviews with analysts and researchers on megatrends in the preceding chapters.

The interviews are a core part of this book. We wanted to write a book on megatrends which took into account different perspectives. Diversity was a key criterion when selecting our interview partners. We have identified analysts and researchers for expert advice and interviews in the process of diving deeper into emerging issues and megatrends. We found them through their publications, conference participation, and online research. Some were recommended to us; a few we knew personally from our involvement in international cooperation projects and our networking activities with think tanks. Berthold M. Kuhn has worked on sustainability transformation for many years, in his capacity as a university researcher at Freie Universität Berlin, Leiden University, Tsinghua University, and Xiamen University; as a consultant to the European Commission, international organizations, and think tanks; and as an expert on ethical investments. Dimitrios L. Margellos has also worked, lived, and traveled in many countries and has been engaged in academic and political work, especially on the issue of inequality.

As we have already mentioned, this is not the first book or publication on megatrends. We have witnessed a proliferation of institutes, experts, and publications focusing on megatrends. The motivation of some megatrend institutes, consulting firms, and experts is to provide well-paid advisory services to business groups and investors. Few make reference to other firms, institutes, or think tanks. We wanted to adopt a slightly different and more comprehensive approach. We make due reference to the many valuable contributions of others in the field of megatrend research by quoting their work and conducting interviews with them and we aim to present a thorough and critical analysis of recent research, analysis, and political debates.

2.1 Shapers

In a sense, we all make contributions to shaping the future through the ways we act, think, contribute to discourses and analysis, and engage in relationships with others. There are, however, some distinct professions such as “strategists” and “futurists” which have been emerging in recent decades and which focus on foresight analysis and advice for companies and political leaders on trends. It would go beyond the scope of this chapter to present an exhaustive list of institutes and experts dealing with strategic foresight, future research, and megatrends. In this chapter and in the book, we shall focus on some key terms and institutes, especially think tanks, which are particularly engaged in future research, and we make due reference to international cooperation initiatives.

The World Economic Forum (WEF) is a leading organization engaged in the analysis of risks and future developments; many others are referenced in the following sub-chapter on think tanks and in the megatrend chapters. We highlight the WEF—which has recently come under attack by some conspiracy theorists—because it is indeed an influential think tank and because it coined the term “shapers.” The WEF has more than 13,000 members in 150 countries and supports the Global Shapers Community, a network of young people under the age of 30 working together to address local, regional, and global challenges. It convenes the Davos Forum and publishes the widely referenced Global Risks Report1, which we cited in the first chapter. We also worked with diverse smaller and medium-size organizations and with researchers and analysts not affiliated to the think tank or consulting industries. However, we recognize the power of leading think tanks in shaping discourses, influencing policymaking, and setting global agendas.

For us, shapers are researchers and experts, international and professional organizations, and especially think tanks, that work on future trends and contribute to agenda-setting and action in relation to trends. Contrary to what conspiracy theories might tell us, our future is not shaped by a few powerful individuals, or even just a small network of influential leaders who may be very present in the news. Undoubtedly, some political leaders, business tycoons, religious leaders, media moguls, and VIP social media influencers attract a lot of attention, but we should not fall prey to such simplistic narratives and all too elegant explanations of the world (which also often carry a lot of antisemitic ideas). The HuffPost, formerly Huffington Post, has published an article on conspiracy theories around Bill Gates and his foundation which may be of interest for some readers.2

Lists and rankings of powerful and influential people are entertaining to read, but they can perpetuate a worldview of concealed governance structures piloted by a handful of powerful individuals or simply exaggerate the actual influence on decision-making and agenda-setting of such people.

Time magazine, for example, lists pioneers, artists, leaders, titans, and icons. The listing includes people from politics as well as the entertainment industry. It is fun reading but not based on sophisticated criteria or empirical evidence.

Throughout history, great technological developments and philosophical ideas are often attributed to only a small number of people. Visionary people who engage in research, development, and marketing of new products and business models are still necessary. Elon Musk, the founder of Tesla, PayPal, and SpaceX, is one example. However, the modern world has become more complex, and it is worth noting that SpaceX has indeed received massive financial backing from the U.S. government. It is mainly institutions and interactions across disciplinary boundaries and between researchers and practitioners that influence megatrends.

In an effort to present the most accurate analysis of megatrends, we directed our attention to analysts and researchers who have made well-documented contributions to trends affecting the future of humanity. Innovations and processes of change are often engineered by people who research new technologies, publish widely referenced books, educate others, or are involved in strategic foresight and consulting to multinational companies, international organizations, governments, and leading non-profit organizations. The number of people involved in researching new technologies, founding innovative companies, and working on strategic foresight and future scenarios has been growing in recent years.

The start-up universe is particularly interesting to study. It perfectly illustrates the enormous drive for innovation. According to Startup Genome (2021), more than 80 ecosystems globally have produced a billion-dollar start-up, the so-called unicorns. When the term was popularized in 2013, only four ecosystems had produced unicorns or billion-dollar exits.3

Each megatrend presented in this book has a different story of growing attention and relevance across countries and regions. The Pentagon Model which we introduced in the first chapter tells us that megatrends also have much in common. They are widely referenced by analysts and researchers and are debated among expert communities and activists. Investors have a keen interest in understanding and forecasting megatrends. Media reports on powerful trends and social movements, and activists are inspired by them.

We do not hold particular megatrends in higher regard than we do others, but we nevertheless concede that some will impact the world more than others, those being climate action, digitalization, and inequality. This begs the question of who the shapers of these megatrends might be.

We have seen an exponential growth of experts from different disciplines working on climate change and sustainability topics. On climate change, the main shaper of the debate has been the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC was established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) and was later endorsed by the United Nations General Assembly. The IPCC gathers thousands of scientists and experts who contribute to writing and reviewing reports which have gradually gained the highest level of political attention. The IPCC published its Sixth Assessment Report, “Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis,” in August 2021. The report provides new estimates of the chances of crossing the global warming level of 1.5°C in the coming decades, and finds that unless there are immediate, rapid, and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, limiting warming to close to 1.5°C or even 2°C will be beyond reach.4

A very large number of sustainability initiatives across the world have pointed to the need to protect biodiversity and to change patterns of land use, production, and consumption. The United Nations presented the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the 17 Sustainable Development Goals in 2015. Unfortunately, it took an exceedingly long time until decision-makers realized that humanity, including every individual, had to adjust lifestyles to become part of the solution. At the same time, unhelpful advice has plagued policymaking for a long time, either through systematic failure, as in the case of mainstream economists, or through lobbying efforts by the fossil fuel industry. Richard Tol, a professor at the University of Sussex, wrote a famous paper in 2009 in which he argued that global warming would cause economic gains for people living in temperate zones, and that these gains would outweigh the losses to people living in the tropics.5

Digitalization has become a megatrend and a disruptive force in business and communication. New technologies have opened up new opportunities, from voice and facial recognition to autonomous driving. The pace of new development and new regulations is breathtaking for analysts. Recently, China has stepped up efforts to regulate its technology sector, a move which has reduced the market capitalization of some of its leading companies, especially Ali Baba.

Theoretically, it is clear that people are behind the big trends and are responsible for pushing digitalization. However, many people focus on the consequences of digitalization rather than on the visions and ideas of the smart people who initiate, engineer, and advance the process of digitalization. Analysis and decision-making power will increasingly be based on algorithms. An algorithm is a series of instructions that are executed step-by-step through the processing of data to solve a problem or to complete a task. Almost everybody is confronted with algorithms and uses them on a daily basis. Algorithms are designed by people and reflect the thinking of people and the technology companies employing them. There are too few efforts underway to decode the logic of thinking behind algorithms to make them transparent and point out the opportunities and threats of digitalization. Our analysis of the megatrend of digitalization is meant to make this big trend more understandable and to offer some critical reflections. The more people who know about megatrends, the more progress humanity will make toward “democratizing” future developments.

Inequality has always persisted in one form or another and continues to be a hot subject of political debates, philosophical reflections, moral considerations, and ideological campaigns. It has gained significant attention by researchers. The World Inequality Database (WID) is a major source of reference.6The books of Thomas Piketty, including Capital in the 21 Century and The Economics of Inequality,7 have received extraordinary attention from scholars and the wider public. Inequality is a major source of conflict in societies. Thus, it truly matters for the future of humanity and is considered a megatrend. Degrees of inequality can vary widely, and chapter five will provide some insights into how to measure inequality and whether, where, and to what extent it is likely to increase in the next decade. How we look at inequality, however, depends on those who reflect on it and shape discourses that in turn influence political decisions. Who will shape discourses and set the agenda on inequality? Which views will dominate political agendas? Some organizations would argue that clashes between people with different levels of income and living standards are unavoidable. Others advocate for a redistribution of wealth or are engaged in promoting social justice and mitigating inequality through political or philanthropic work.

In the process of analyzing climate action and sustainability transformation, digitalization, and inequality, as well as other megatrends, we looked at the work of numerous think tanks which are engaged in research and dialogue on the future of humanity and the planet.

2.2 Think Tanks

What is a think tank? Answers to this question may vary in different political and cultural contexts. In the United States, we may see a greater interest in and perhaps more familiarity with the term think tank because think tanks play a more influential role in shaping public discourse and public policy than in other countries. Think tanks like the RAND Corporation wield a strong influence on U.S. foreign and security policy. They may convey a special, rather problematic image in being perceived as elitist organizations shaping policymaking behind the scenes. While this holds true for some think tanks, we have seen a significant growth in think tanks in different parts of the world that exhibit great diversity.

The Center for China and Globalization, a leading think tank in China, describes the function of a think tank as follows: “Through research reports, seminars, forums and meetings, as well as symposiums and proposals, think tanks play a role in setting agendas and conducting policy interpretation and research in the public arena. They also reflect public opinion and provide policy recommendations to the relevant government agencies through national consultation and democratic mechanisms.”8

The United Nations has published a report, “Thinking the Unthinkable: From Thought to Policy—The Role of Think Tanks in Shaping Government Strategy.”9The report refers to the increasing complexity and technical nature of policy problems, which play in favor of think tanks aiming to become more important in influencing policymaking. The Think Tanks and Civil Society Program (TTCPS) of the University of Pennsylvania publishes a Global Go To Think Tank Index (GGTTI) Report which has been designed “to identify and recognize centers of excellence in all the major areas of public policy research and in every region of the world.” The report provides the following definition:

“Think tanks are public-policy research analysis and engagement organizations that generate policy-oriented research, analysis and advice on domestic and international issues, thereby enabling policymakers and the public to make informed decisions about public policy.”10

The GGTTI 2020 report carries the heading, “helping to bridge the gap between knowledge and policy.” This is probably an adequate description of how think tanks perceive their role. The annual reports from the University of Pennsylvania group thousands of think tanks by categories, countries, and regions. According to the latest report, there are currently 2,058 think tanks in North America (Mexico, Canada, and the United States) of which 1,872 are in the United States. There are 2,219 think tanks in Europe, and many more in other parts of the world. The number of think tanks in the United States has more than doubled since 1980. Asia has experienced a dramatic growth in think tanks since the mid-2000s. In an effort to diversify their funding base, think tanks have targeted businesses and wealthy individuals to support their core operations and programs. The growth of think tanks is driven by digitalization, easier access to information, and the increasing complexity of policy problems. This growth trend, however, does not apply to all countries and regions. In fact, the political and regulatory environment has grown hostile to think tanks and NGOs in some authoritarian regimes and reduced the space for critical and independent analysis and advocacy work. Authoritarian states tend to fear independent analysis, diversity of opinions, and unsolicited policy recommendations. They sometimes even prohibit their work, especially if foreign funding is involved. The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a leading U.S. think tank, argues that “since the mid-2000s, civic space has come under attack in many countries around the world… closing civic space now appears to be just one part of a much broader pattern of democratic recession and authoritarian resurgence. The international response seems stuck.”11 In chapter eleven on democracy and governance, we refer to index projects that aim to measure the quality of democracy, governance, and freedom of association.

In European countries, according to our observations, the image of think tanks is gradually changing. At least the educated public perceives them less as closed-shop institutions run by old boys’s networks and more as networks of well-informed experts who engage in dialogue on salient issues. The number of think tanks that focus on lobbying for the vested interests of business groups or the agendas of political parties is rather small. Legal and tax regulation constrain lobbying activities for organizations that enjoy public benefit status. Many think tanks are registered as foundations and enjoy such status. In Europe and even more in the U.S., the image of non-Western think tanks tends to be far more negative. Many of them are—not always with good justification—labeled as arms of authoritarian regimes. We have observed that their presumed proximity to political leadership and their actual political influence tend to be overrated.

Think tanks very often deal with future trends. Some explicitly focus on analyzing future trends, megatrends, and are promoting related dialogue. They are setting agendas and influencing decision-makers in an implicit rather than an explicit way. Their analysis and reports are usually widely available on the internet, with electronic copies often available free of charge. Here are two examples: SITRA’s megatrend analysis aims to provide an interpretation of the direction of global change-related phenomena. SITRA is a think tank that does not disguise its proximity to the legislature of a country. It is the Finnish Innovation Fund which acts as an independent public foundation and operates directly under the supervision of the Finnish Parliament.12

Figure 2.1: SITRA’s Megatrends

Source: SITRA (2020)13

Megatrends Watch describes itself as an independent, non-partisan private organization dedicated to advancing the study of megatrends and their potential impacts upon societies. It aims to strengthen the decision-making capacity of organizations by providing strategic intelligence designed to broaden the understanding of external opportunities and threats. It offers advisory services in foresight intelligence and future studies.14

What are (other) influential think tanks in the field of future research? There are many think tanks working on future trends and scenarios in specific fields of research and dialogue, for example, in the fields of technological, economic, and social development or geopolitics. Some think tanks carry “future” in their name.15They address different audiences. Some focus more on political leaders, others more on business communities; some are more research-oriented, others more consulting-oriented. Thus, it would be difficult to rank them according to their influence.

In Germany, the Zukunftsinstitut (The Future Institute) considers itself a leading think tank for future research and strategic foresight.16 It is a rather small organization but has designed a widely referenced map on megatrends which presents a dozen interconnected future trends.

2.3 Consulting Firms

Consulting firms typically act as brokers for innovation and help companies and public institutions to optimize their business models. Information technology upgrades are often the focus of their consulting services. The major consulting firms also act as strategic consultants and present themselves as specialists for forecasting trends, change management, and process management.

Many consulting companies have produced reports on megatrends, mostly with the purpose of engaging with potential clients and providing advisory services related to strategic foresight and analysis of promising business trends.

McKinsey, a leading strategy consulting firm, has identified four global forces shaping all the trends. The first is the shifting locus of economic activity and dynamism to emerging markets like China and to cities within those markets. The second disruptive force is the acceleration in the scope, scale, and economic impact of technology. The third is the aging society. The human population is getting older. Fertility is falling, and the world’s population is graying dramatically. While aging has been evident in developed economies for some time—Japan and Russia have seen their populations decline over the past few years—the demographic deficit is now spreading to China and will soon reach Latin America. The final disruptive force is the degree to which the world is much more connected through trade and through movements in capital, people, and information (data and communication).17

The big four accounting firms—PwC, Deloitte, EY, and KPMG—have all ventured into the analysis of megatrends. PwC, which operates in 157 countries, has produced a flagship report on megatrends. The company defines global megatrends as “macroeconomic and geostrategic forces that are shaping our world, and our collective futures in profound ways.” Five megatrends are in the focus of the analysis of PwC are as follows:18

The shift in global economic power;

Demographic change;

Rapid urbanization;

The rise of technology;

Climate change and resource scarcity.

Deloitte Consultants has also worked on five megatrends with a focus on financial services. The report identified clusters of innovation that are affecting business in the financial services industry: primary accounts, payments, capital markets, investment management, and insurance.19

The German consulting firm Roland Berger presented a comprehensive “Trend Compendium 2050” in 2021. It covers six megatrends spanning different economic and social dimensions, also including politics and governance.

Figure 2.2: The Roland Berger Trend Compendium

Source: Roland Berger (2021)20

Megatrends are important for marketing. Kantar Consulting, in cooperation with Prof. Peter Wippermann and Jens Krüger, has published a Value Index which focuses on consumers. The 2020 Value Index report is based on a comprehensive analysis of social media communication. The underlying assumption is that values drive trends. The ranking order is as follows: (1) Health, (2) Family, (3) Success, (4) Freedom, (5) Security, (6) Community, (7) Nature, (8) Acknowledgment, (9) Justice, and (10) Sustainability.

Kantar Consulting and the aforementioned experts also published a Chinese Consumer Value Index in 2019. For China, the highest ranked values are: (1) Success, (2) Security, (3) Health, (4) Simplicity, (5) Freedom, (6) Nature, (7) Family, (8) Community, (9) Recognition, and (10) Transparency.

2.4 International Cooperation and Global Governance

International cooperation is far more advanced, deeper, and broader than most people imagine or media coverage of political and economic tensions between powerful countries suggests. International organizations play a key role in promoting global exchanges. They shape debates on future trends in a significant way.

The state administrations of the world built a sophisticated global governance architecture in the decades after World War Two. The United Nations, its principal organs, and its specialized agencies, are important actors in international cooperation, though some of their budgets are relatively small and global consensus-building is an almost impossible task.

The former United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan was the chief architect of a new orientation for the United Nations. He decided that the UN should engage more with the business community. This new UN policy was announced at the World Economic Forum’s summit on January 31, 1999. The UN Global Compact was launched soon after on July 26, 2000. The UN has gradually opened up and today involves many actors besides states. It has promoted a series of initiatives specifically targeted at the business and financial community to work on shared values and principles and to give a human face to the global market. The cooperation of the UN with civil society organizations and social movements has also intensified.

While the effectiveness of the work of many organizations of the UN has always been questioned, especially in the U.S., the broadening and deepening of its cooperation with non-state actors from 2000 onwards has rejuvenated the UN system in many ways. Today, the UN system leads the climate action and sustainability agenda with its conference series in the context of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNCCC) and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development which has—to the surprise of some experts and media, including The Economist—developed into a powerful reference framework not only for international cooperation projects but also for policymakers in many countries to promote sustainability transitions at national and subnational levels, for city planning and development, and for asset management groups and investors.

The political analyst Ayad-Al Ani, professor at Stellenbosch University in South Africa and fellow of the Berlin-based Einstein-Zentrum Digitale Zukunft (Einstein Centre Digital Future), has pointed to the engagement of major global companies with the Sustainable Development Goals: He refers to Avanti Communications (satellite technology); 2030 Vision (a technology partnership that also includes SAP and Microsoft); Google; the software company Salesforce, whose CEO is also on the board of the WEF; and to the payment specialist Mastercard.

The climate crisis has provided the UN with an opportunity to start a number of significant new global initiatives and to structure and shape global policymaking on climate action. The UN is relatively decentralized and aims to reach out to countries and institutions in all parts of the world. The United Nations Development Program has a relatively strong presence in countries of the Global South. Bonn, a small city in the Rhine valley and the former capital of West Germany, hosts more than 20 United Nations institutions. The Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Conventions on Climate Change is one of them.

The Group of Seven (G7) and the Group of Twenty (G20) are informal governance clubs which hold annual summits of heads of state and governments to discuss issues of global importance. The G20, the group of the most economically powerful nations, is emerging as a key player in global politics. The G7 that gathers economically powerful countries of the Western hemisphere plus Japan, has lost influence in the context of the rise of China, India, and other countries of the Global South and is now focusing more on foreign policy and security.

The G20 focuses on economic development and finance but has extended its agenda to other areas, including those relevant to megatrends shaping modern economies. Several initiatives are associated with annual summit meetings, such as the Think Tank 20 group.

We have also witnessed the establishment of new institutions such as BRICS. Since 2009, the BRICS nations comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa have met annually at formal summits to advance the perspectives of emerging economies. China has also started other institutions and initiatives, such as the foreign policy and security-oriented Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), which is engaged in major infrastructure investments across Asia.

In the field of climate action, the South Korea-based Green Climate Fund (GCF), established within the framework of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), is emerging as an important player in financing projects in the Global South. Alongside interstate institutions, we have witnessed an enormous growth in private sector associations, civil society organizations, and different kinds of social movements which shape debates on future trends and are involved in governance arrangements at different levels.

However, the governance of international affairs is still insufficient if we think about the magnitude of global challenges that humanity needs to tackle together. Political cooperation is lagging behind the dynamics of economic and social exchanges. We can see a growing interdependence of the world’s economies, cultures, and populations driven by cross-border trade, technology, flows of investments, people, and information.

International organizations aim to catch up with new challenges for humanity. They have limited resources to work on their mandates but are still important agenda-setters. The UN works to promote peace and security, support development, and protect human rights. The organization has made a big effort to take a lead in the sustainable development and climate action agendas and has so far been successful.

Several world conferences led by the United Nations, especially those in Rio de Janeiro (1992 and 2012) and Johannesburg (2002), were instrumental in merging the development policy and the environmental policy agenda. These conferences have given birth to the global development goals, the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the 17 Sustainable Development Goals, which succeeded the first generation of global goals, the 8 Millennium Development Goals. Since 2000, when Kofi Annan was the Secretary-General of the UN, there has been a process of broadening engagement at the UN. Efforts have been made to reach out to the business community, to civil society organizations, to the financial industry, and to social movements such as Fridays for Future.

The United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development has grown into a powerful reference framework for international cooperation. Unlike previous goals and programs, including the Millennium Development Goals, it is a truly one-world agenda because it requires efforts and policies of adjustment for all countries. Previous global goals, plans, and programs were based on the distinction between developed and developing countries. Rich countries were supposed to provide financial aid and technical support to poorer countries, but their own economic policies were not questioned. This changed with the environmental and climate crisis. It became more and more evident that the planet did not have the capacity to allow for models of unsustainable growth that accelerated environmental degradation, altering the climate through greenhouse gas emissions. The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development includes 17 development goals, 169 targets, and 232 indicators covering different social, economic, and environmental aspects. It was a complex undertaking involving a significant number of international organizations, nonprofits, and think tanks, to agree on the 17 goals that are supposed to represent a global consensus for development.