Inside the Black Box E-Book

Rishi K. Narang

• Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
• Kategorie: Fachliteratur
• Serie: Wiley Finance Editions
• Sprache: Englisch

Seitenzahl: 619

Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2013

Beschreibung

New edition of book that demystifies quant and algo trading In this updated edition of his bestselling book, Rishi K Narang offers in a straightforward, nontechnical style--supplemented by real-world examples and informative anecdotes--a reliable resource takes you on a detailed tour through the black box. He skillfully sheds light upon the work that quants do, lifting the veil of mystery around quantitative trading and allowing anyone interested in doing so to understand quants and their strategies. This new edition includes information on High Frequency Trading. * Offers an update on the bestselling book for explaining in non-mathematical terms what quant and algo trading are and how they work * Provides key information for investors to evaluate the best hedge fund investments * Explains how quant strategies fit into a portfolio, why they are valuable, and how to evaluate a quant manager This new edition of Inside the Black Box explains quant investing without the jargon and goes a long way toward educating investment professionals.

Leseprobe

Contents

Cover

Additional Praise for Inside the Black Box

Series

Title Page

Copyright

Dedication

Preface to the Second Edition

Acknowledgments

Part One: The Quant Universe

Chapter 1: Why Does Quant Trading Matter?

THE BENEFIT OF DEEP THOUGHT

THE MEASUREMENT AND MISMEASUREMENT OF RISK

DISCIPLINED IMPLEMENTATION

SUMMARY

NOTES

Chapter 2: An Introduction to Quantitative Trading

WHAT IS A QUANT?

WHAT IS THE TYPICAL STRUCTURE OF A QUANTITATIVE TRADING SYSTEM?

SUMMARY

NOTES

Part Two: Inside the Black Box

Chapter 3: Alpha Models: How Quants Make Money

TYPES OF ALPHA MODELS: THEORY-DRIVEN AND DATA-DRIVEN

THEORY-DRIVEN ALPHA MODELS

DATA-DRIVEN ALPHA MODELS

IMPLEMENTING THE STRATEGIES

BLENDING ALPHA MODELS

SUMMARY

NOTES

Chapter 4: Risk Models

LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF RISK

LIMITING THE TYPES OF RISK

SUMMARY

NOTES

Chapter 5: Transaction Cost Models

DEFINING TRANSACTION COSTS

TYPES OF TRANSACTION COST MODELS

SUMMARY

NOTE

Chapter 6: Portfolio Construction Models

RULE-BASED PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION MODELS

PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZERS

OUTPUT OF PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION MODELS

HOW QUANTS CHOOSE A PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION MODEL

SUMMARY

NOTES

Chapter 7: Execution

ORDER EXECUTION ALGORITHMS

TRADING INFRASTRUCTURE

SUMMARY

NOTES

Chapter 8: Data

THE IMPORTANCE OF DATA

TYPES OF DATA

SOURCES OF DATA

CLEANING DATA

STORING DATA

SUMMARY

NOTES

Chapter 9: Research

BLUEPRINT FOR RESEARCH: THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD

IDEA GENERATION

TESTING

SUMMARY

NOTE

Part Three: A Practical Guide for Investors in Quantitative Strategies

Chapter 10: Risks Inherent to Quant Strategies

MODEL RISK

REGIME CHANGE RISK

EXOGENOUS SHOCK RISK

CONTAGION, OR COMMON INVESTOR, RISK

HOW QUANTS MONITOR RISK

SUMMARY

NOTES

Chapter 11: Criticisms of Quant Trading

TRADING IS AN ART, NOT A SCIENCE

QUANTS CAUSE MORE MARKET VOLATILITY BY UNDERESTIMATING RISK

QUANTS CANNOT HANDLE UNUSUAL EVENTS OR RAPID CHANGES IN MARKET CONDITIONS

QUANTS ARE ALL THE SAME

ONLY A FEW LARGE QUANTS CAN THRIVE IN THE LONG RUN

QUANTS ARE GUILTY OF DATA MINING

SUMMARY

NOTES

Chapter 12: Evaluating Quants and Quant Strategies

GATHERING INFORMATION

EVALUATING A QUANTITATIVE TRADING STRATEGY

EVALUATING THE ACUMEN OF QUANTITATIVE TRADERS

THE EDGE

EVALUATING INTEGRITY

HOW QUANTS FIT INTO A PORTFOLIO

SUMMARY

NOTE

Part Four: High-Speed and High-Frequency Trading

Chapter 13: An Introduction to High-Speed and High-Frequency Trading*

NOTES

Chapter 14: High-Speed Trading

WHY SPEED MATTERS

SOURCES OF LATENCY

SUMMARY

NOTES

Chapter 15: High-Frequency Trading

CONTRACTUAL MARKET MAKING

NONCONTRACTUAL MARKET MAKING

ARBITRAGE

FAST ALPHA

HFT RISK MANAGEMENT AND PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION

SUMMARY

NOTE

Chapter 16: Controversy Regarding High-Frequency Trading

DOES HFT CREATE UNFAIR COMPETITION?

DOES HFT LEAD TO FRONT-RUNNING OR MARKET MANIPULATION?

DOES HFT LEAD TO GREATER VOLATILITY OR STRUCTURAL INSTABILITY?

DOES HFT LACK SOCIAL VALUE?

REGULATORY CONSIDERATIONS

SUMMARY

NOTES

Chapter 17: Looking to the Future of Quant Trading

About the Author

Index

Additional Praise for Inside the Black Box

“Rishi presents a thorough overview of quant trading in an easy-to-read format, free of much of the hype and hysteria that has recently surrounded computerized trading. The book clearly categorizes the different types of strategies, explaining in plain English the basic ideas behind how and when they work. Most importantly, it dispels the popular notion that all quants are the same, exposing the diversity of the types of skills and thinking that are involved in quant trading and related disciplines. An excellent read for anyone who wants to understand what the field is all about.”

—Shakil Ahmed, PhD, Global Head of Market Making, Citi Equities

“To look at the man, you would never know that Rishi could write so clearly and effectively about something as complex as quantitative trading and investment. But he does and does it brilliantly. And, even if you already own the first edition, you should buy this one, too. The new material on high speed trading is worth the price of admission, and you will have a chance, especially in Chapter 16, to see Rishi at his incisive and high spirited best. If you don't laugh out loud, you have no soul.”

—Galen Burghardt, Director of Research, Newedge

“Quant managers will find their meetings with investors to be smoother if the investors have read this book.  And even more so if the manager him or herself has read and understood it.”

—David DeMers, Portfolio Manager, SAC Capital Advisors, LP

“In this second edition of Inside the Black Box Rishi highlights role of quant trading in recent financial crises with clear language and without using any complex equations. In chapter 11 he addresses common quant myths. He leads us effortlessly through the quant trading processes and makes it very easy to comprehend, as he himself is a quant trader.”

—Pankaj N. Patel, Global Head of Quantitative Equity Research, Credit Suisse

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Cover image: © Istock Photo/Maddrat. Cover design: Paul McCarthy.

Copyright © 2013 by Rishi K Narang. All rights reserved.

Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey. First edition published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. in 2009. Published simultaneously in Canada.

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data:

Narang, Rishi K, 1974- Inside the black box : a simple guide to quantitative and high-frequency trading/Rishi K. Narang. — Second edition. pages cm. — (Wiley finance series) Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-1-118-36241-9 (cloth); ISBN 978-1-118-42059-1 (ebk); ISBN 978-1-118-58797-3 (ebk); ISBN 978-1-118-41699-0 (ebk) 1. Portfolio management—Mathematical models. 2. Investment analysis— Mathematical models. 3. Stocks—Mathematical models. I. Title. HG4529.5.N37 2013 332.64′2—dc23 2012047248

This edition is dedicated to my son, Solomon K Narang, whose unbridled curiosity I hope will be with him always.

Preface to the Second Edition

History is a relentless master. It has no present, only the past rushing into the future. To try to hold fast is to be swept aside.

—John F. Kennedy

Within the investment management business, a wildly misunderstood niche is booming, surely but in relative obscurity. This niche is populated by some of the brightest people ever to work in the field, and they are working to tackle some of the most interesting and challenging problems in modern finance. This niche is known by several names: quantitative trading, systematic trading, or black box trading. As in almost every field, technology is revolutionizing the way things are being done, and very rarely, also what is being done. And, as is true of revolutions generally (in particular, scientific ones), not everyone understands or likes what's happening.

I mentioned above that this is a technological revolution, which may have struck you as being strange, considering we're talking about quant trading here. But the reality is that the difference between quant traders and discretionary ones is precisely a technological one. Make no mistake: Being good at investing almost always involves some math, whether it's a fundamental analyst building a model of a company's revenues, costs, and resulting profits or losses, or computing a price-to-earnings ratio. Graham and Dodd's Security Analysis has a whole chapter regarding financial statement analysis, and that bible of fundamental value investing has more formulae in it than this book.

Just as in any other application where doing things in a disciplined, repeatable, consistent way is useful—whether it's in building cars or flying airplanes—investing can be systematized. It should be systematized. And quant traders have gone some distance down the road of systematizing it. Car building is still car building, whether it's human hands turning ratchets or machines doing it. Flying a plane is not viewed differently when a human pilot does the work than when an autopilot does the work. In other words, the same work is being done, it's just being done in a different way. This is a technological difference, at its heart.

If I say, “I'd like to own cheap stocks,” I could, theoretically, hand-compute every company's price-to-earnings ratio, manually search for the cheapest ones, and manually go to the marketplace to buy them. Or I could write a computer program that scans a database that has all of those price-to-earnings ratios loaded into it, finds all the ones that I defined up-front as being cheap, and then goes out and buys those stocks at the market using trading algorithms. The how part of the work is quite different in one case from the other. But the stocks I own at the end of it are identical, and for identical reasons.

So, if what we're talking about here is a completely rational evolution in how we're doing a specific kind of work, and if we're not being unreasonably technophobic, then why is it that reporters, politicians, the general public, and even many industry professionals really dislike quant trading? There are two reasons. One is that, in some cases, the dislike comes from people whose jobs are being replaced by technology. For example, it is very obvious that many of the most active opponents of high-frequency trading are primarily fighting not out of some altruistic commitment to the purest embodiment of a capitalist marketplace (though that would be so terrifically ironic that I'd love if it were true), but because their livelihood is threatened by a superior way of doing things. This is understandable, and fair enough. But it's not good for the marketplace if those voices win out, because ultimately they are advocating stagnancy. There's a reason that the word Luddite has a negative connotation.

A second reason, far more common in my experience, is that people don't understand quant trading, and what we don't understand, we tend to fear and dislike. This book is aimed at improving the understanding of quant trading of various types of participants in the investment management industry. Quants are themselves often guilty of exacerbating the problem by being unnecessarily cagey about even the broadest descriptions of their activities. This only breeds mistrust in the general community, and it turns out not to be necessary in the least.

This book takes you on a tour through the black box, inside and out. It sheds light on the work that quants do, lifting the veil of mystery that surrounds quantitative trading, and allowing those interested in doing so to evaluate quants and their strategies.

The first thing that should be made clear is that people, not machines, are responsible for most of the interesting aspects of quantitative trading. Quantitative trading can be defined as the systematic implementation of trading strategies that human beings create through rigorous research. In this context, systematic is defined as a disciplined, methodical, and automated approach. Despite this talk of automation and systematization, people conduct the research and decide what the strategies will be, people select the universe of securities for the system to trade, and people choose what data to procure and how to clean those data for use in a systematic context, among a great many other things. These people, the ones behind quant trading strategies, are commonly referred to as quants or quant traders.

Quants employ the scientific method in their research. Though this research is aided by technology and involves mathematics and formulae, the research process is thoroughly dependent on human decision making. In fact, human decisions pervade nearly every aspect of the design, implementation, and monitoring of quant trading strategies. As I've indicated already, quant strategies and traditional discretionary investment strategies, which rely on human decision makers to manage portfolios day to day, are rather similar in what they do.

The differences between a quant strategy and a discretionary strategy can be seen in how the strategy is created and in how it is implemented. By carefully researching their strategies, quants are able to assess their ideas in the same way that scientists test theories. Furthermore, by utilizing a computerized, systematic implementation, quants eliminate the arbitrariness that pervades so many discretionary trading strategies. In essence, decisions driven by emotion, indiscipline, passion, greed, and fear—what many consider the key pratfalls of playing the market—are eliminated from the quant's investment process. They are replaced by an analytical and systematic approach that borrows from the lessons learned in so many other fields: If something needs to be done repeatedly and with a great deal of discipline, computers will virtually always outshine humans. We simply aren't cut out for repetition in the way that computers are, and there's nothing wrong with that. Computers, after all, aren't cut out for creativity the way we are; without humans telling computers what to do, computers wouldn't do much of anything. The differences in how a strategy is designed and implemented play a large part in the consistent, favorable risk/reward profile a well-run quant strategy enjoys relative to most discretionary strategies.

To clarify the scope of this book, it is important to note that I focus on alpha-oriented strategies and largely ignore quantitative index traders or other implementations of beta strategies. Alpha strategies attempt to generate returns by skillfully timing the selection and/or sizing of various portfolio holdings; beta strategies mimic or slightly improve on the performance of an index, such as the S&P 500. Though quantitative index fund management is a large industry, it requires little explanation. Neither do I spend much time on the field of financial engineering, which typically plays a role in creating or managing new financial products such as collateralized debt obligations (CDOs). Nor do I address quantitative analysis, which typically supports discretionary investment decisions. Both of these are interesting subjects, but they are so different from quant trading as to be deserving of their own, separate discussions carried out by experts in those fields.

This book is divided into four parts. Part One (Chapters 1 and 2) provides a general but useful background on quantitative trading. Part Two (Chapters 3 through 9) details the contents of the black box. Part Three (Chapters 10 through 12) is an introduction to high-frequency trading, the infrastructure that supports such high-speed trading, and some truths and myths regarding this controversial activity. Part Four (Chapters 13 through 16) provides an analysis of quant trading and techniques that may be useful in assessing quant traders and their strategies. Finally, Chapter 17 looks at the present and future of quant trading and its place in the investment world.

It is my aspiration to explain quant trading in an intuitive manner. I describe what quants do and how they do it by drawing on the economic rationale for their strategies and the theoretical basis for their techniques. Equations are avoided, and the use of jargon is limited and explained, when required at all. My aim is to demonstrate that what many call a black box is in fact transparent, intuitively sensible, and readily understandable. I also explore the lessons that can be learned from quant trading about investing in general and how to evaluate quant trading strategies and their practitioners. As a result, Inside the Black Box may be useful for a variety of participants in and commentators on the capital markets. For portfolio managers, analysts, and traders, whether quantitative or discretionary, this book will help contextualize what quants do, how they do it, and why. For investors, the financial media, regulators, or anyone with a reasonable knowledge of capital markets in general, this book will engender a deeper understanding of this niche.

Rishi K Narang

Acknowledgments

I am indebted to Manoj Narang, my brother, for his help with Part IV of this book, and to Mani Mahjouri for all of his suggestions and help. Mike Beller's and Dmitry Sarkisov's help with the micro-bursting information was both enlightening and very much appreciated. My colleagues at T2AM, Myong Han, Yimin Guo, Huang Pan, and Julie Wilson, read through various portions of this text and offered many valuable suggestions. This book would not be readable without the untiring editing of Arzhang Kamarei, who edited the first edition.

I must acknowledge the help of the rest of my partners at T2AM: Eric Cressman, John Cutsinger, and Elizabeth Castro.

For their help getting some metrics on the quant trading universe, I'd like to thank Chris Kennedy and Ryan Duncan of Newedge, Sang Lee of the Aite Group, and the Barclay Group. Underlying data, where necessary, were downloaded from Yahoo! Finance or Bloomberg, unless otherwise noted.

Since ItBB came out in 2009, I have been grateful for the support shown to me and the book by Newedge (especially Keith Johnson, Leslie Richman, Brian Walls, Galen Burghardt, and Isabelle Lixi), Bank of America Merrill Lynch (especially Michael Lynch, Lisa Conde, Tim Cox, and Omer Corluhan), Morgan Stanley (especially Michael Meade), and the CME Group (especially Kelly Brown).

For the second edition, I thank Philip Palmedo, Brent Boyer, Aaron Brown, and Werner Krebs for their constructive criticisms, which resulted in various improvements. Thanks also to Pankaj Patel, Dave DeMers, John Burnell, John Fidler, and Camille Hayek for their help with various bits of new content.

PART One

The Quant Universe

CHAPTER 1

Why Does Quant Trading Matter?

Look into their minds, at what wise men do and don't.

—Marcus Aurelius, Meditations

John is a quant trader running a midsized hedge fund. He completed an undergraduate degree in mathematics and computer science at a top school in the early 1990s. John immediately started working on Wall Street trading desks, eager to capitalize on his quantitative background. After seven years on the Street in various quant-oriented roles, John decided to start his own hedge fund. With partners handling business and operations, John was able to create a quant strategy that recently was trading over $1.5 billion per day in equity volume. More relevant to his investors, the strategy made money on 60 percent of days and 85 percent of months—a rather impressive accomplishment.

Despite trading billions of dollars of stock every day, there is no shouting at John's hedge fund, no orders being given over the phone, and no drama in the air; in fact, the only sign that there is any trading going on at all is the large flat-screen television in John's office that shows the strategy's performance throughout the day and its trading volume. John can't give you a fantastically interesting story about why his strategy is long this stock or short that one. While he is monitoring his universe of thousands of stocks for events that might require intervention, for the most part he lets the automated trading strategy do the hard work. What John monitors quite carefully, however, is the health of his strategy and the market environment's impact on it. He is aggressive about conducting research on an ongoing basis to adjust his models for changes in the market that would impact him.

Across from John sits Mark, a recently hired partner of the fund who is researching high-frequency trading. Unlike the firm's first strategy, which only makes money on 6 out of 10 days, the high-frequency efforts Mark and John are working on target a much more ambitious task: looking for smaller opportunities that can make money every day. Mark's first attempt at high-frequency strategies already makes money nearly 95 percent of the time. In fact, their target for this high-frequency business is even loftier: They want to replicate the success of those firms whose trading strategies make money every hour, maybe even every minute, of every day. Such high-frequency strategies can't accommodate large investments, because the opportunities they find are small, fleeting. The technology required to support such an endeavor is also incredibly expensive, not just to build, but to maintain. Nonetheless, they are highly attractive for whatever capital they can accommodate. Within their high-frequency trading business, John and Mark expect their strategy to generate returns of about 200 percent a year, possibly much more.

There are many relatively small quant trading boutiques that go about their business quietly, as John and Mark's firm does, but that have demonstrated top-notch results over reasonably long periods. For example, Quantitative Investment Management of Charlottesville, Virginia, averaged over 20 percent per year for the 2002–2008 period—a track record that many discretionary managers would envy.1

On the opposite end of the spectrum from these small quant shops are the giants of quant investing, with which many investors are already quite familiar. Of the many impressive and successful quantitative firms in this category, the one widely regarded as the best is Renaissance Technologies. Renaissance, the most famous of all quant funds, is famed for its 35 percent average yearly returns (after exceptionally high fees), with extremely low risk, since 1990. In 2008, a year in which many hedge funds struggled mightily, Renaissance's flagship Medallion Fund gained approximately 80 percent.2 I am personally familiar with the fund's track record, and it's actually gotten better as time has passed—despite the increased competition and potential for models to stop working.

Not all quants are successful, however. It seems that once every decade or so, quant traders cause—or at least are perceived to cause—markets to move dramatically because of their failures. The most famous case by far is, of course, Long Term Capital Management (LTCM), which nearly (but for the intervention of Federal Reserve banking officials and a consortium of Wall Street banks) brought the financial world to its knees. Although the world markets survived, LTCM itself was not as lucky. The firm, which averaged 30 percent returns after fees for four years, lost nearly 100 percent of its capital in the debacle of August–October 1998 and left many investors both skeptical and afraid of quant traders. Never mind that it is debatable whether this was a quant trading failure or a failure of human judgment in risk management, nor that it's questionable whether LTCM was even a quant trading firm at all. It was staffed by PhDs and Nobel Prize–winning economists, and that was enough to cast it as a quant trading outfit, and to make all quants guilty by association.

Not only have quants been widely panned because of LTCM, but they have also been blamed (probably unfairly) for the crash of 1987 and (quite fairly) for the eponymous quant liquidation of 2007, the latter having severely impacted many quant shops. Even some of the largest names in quant trading suffered through the quant liquidation of August 2007. For instance, Goldman Sachs' largely quantitative Global Alpha Fund was down an estimated 40 percent in 2007 after posting a 6 percent loss in 2006.3 In less than a week during August 2007, many quant traders lost between 10 and 40 percent in a few days, though some of them rebounded strongly for the remainder of the month.

In a recent best-selling nonfiction book, a former Wall Street Journal reporter even attempted to blame quant trading for the massive financial crisis that came to a head in 2008. There were gaps in his logic large enough to drive an 18-wheeler through, but the popular perception of quants has never been positive. And this is all before high-frequency trading (HFT) came into the public consciousness in 2010, after the Flash Crash on May 10 of that year. Ever since then, various corners of the investment and trading world have tried very hard to assert that quants (this time, in the form of HFTs) are responsible for increased market volatility, instability in the capital markets, market manipulation, front-running, and many other evils. We will look into HFT and the claims leveled against it in greater detail in Chapter 16, but any quick search of the Internet will confirm that quant trading and HFT have left the near-total obscurity they enjoyed for decades and entered the mainstream's thoughts on a regular basis.

Leaving aside the spectacular successes and failures of quant trading, and all of the ills for which quant trading is blamed by some, there is no doubt that quants cast an enormous shadow on the capital markets virtually every trading day. Across U.S. equity markets, a significant, and rapidly growing, proportion of all trading is done through algorithmic execution, one footprint of quant strategies. (Algorithmic execution is the use of computer software to manage and work an investor's buy and sell orders in electronic markets.) Although this automated execution technology is not the exclusive domain of quant strategies—any trade that needs to be done, whether by an index fund or a discretionary macro trader, can be worked using execution algorithms—certainly a substantial portion of all algorithmic trades are done by quants. Furthermore, quants were both the inventors and primary innovators of algorithmic trading engines. A mere five such quant traders account for about 1 billion shares of volume per day, in aggregate, in the United States alone. It is worth noting that not one of these is well known to the broader investing public, even now, after all the press surrounding high-frequency trading. The TABB Group, a research and advisory firm focused exclusively on the capital markets, estimates that, in 2008, approximately 58 percent of all buy-side orders were algorithmically traded. TABB also estimates that this figure has grown some 37 percent per year, compounded, since 2005. More directly, the Aite Group published a study in early 2009 indicating that more than 60 percent of all U.S. equity transactions are attributable to short-term quant traders.4 These statistics hold true in non-U.S. markets as well. Black-box trading accounted for 45 percent of the volume on the European Xetra electronic order-matching system in the first quarter of 2008, which is 36 percent more than it represented a year earlier.5

The large presence of quants is not limited to equities. In futures and foreign exchange markets, the domain of commodity trading advisors (CTAs), quants pervade the marketplace. Newedge Alternative Investment Solutions and Barclay Hedge used a combined database to estimate that almost 90 percent of the assets under management among all CTAs are managed by systematic trading firms as of August 2012. Although a great many of the largest and most established CTAs (and hedge funds generally) do not report their assets under management or performance statistics to any database, a substantial portion of these firms are actually quants also, and it is likely that the real figure is still over 75 percent. As of August 2012, Newedge estimates that the amount of quantitative futures money under management was $282.3 billion.

It is clear that the magnitude of quant trading among hedge funds is substantial. Hedge funds are private investment pools that are accessible only to sophisticated, wealthy individual or institutional clients. They can pursue virtually any investment mandate one can dream up, and they are allowed to keep a portion of the profits they generate for their clients. But this is only one of several arenas in which quant trading is widespread. Proprietary trading desks at the various banks, boutique proprietary trading firms, and various multistrategy hedge fund managers who utilize quantitative trading for a portion of their overall business each contribute to a much larger estimate of the size of the quant trading universe.

With such size and extremes of success and failure, it is not surprising that quants take their share of headlines in the financial press. And though most press coverage of quants seems to be markedly negative, this is not always the case. In fact, not only have many quant funds been praised for their steady returns (a hallmark of their disciplined implementation process), but some experts have even argued that the existence of successful quant strategies improves the marketplace for all investors, regardless of their style. For instance, Reto Francioni (chief executive of Deutsche Boerse AG, which runs the Frankfurt Stock Exchange) said in a speech that algorithmic trading “benefits all market participants through positive effects on liquidity.” Francioni went on to reference a recent academic study showing “a positive causal relationship between algo trading and liquidity.”6 Indeed, this is almost guaranteed to be true. Quant traders, using execution algorithms (hence, algo trading), typically slice their orders into many small pieces to improve both the cost and efficiency of the execution process. As mentioned before, although originally developed by quant funds, these algorithms have been adopted by the broader investment community. By placing many small orders, other investors who might have different views or needs can also get their own executions improved.

Quants typically make markets more efficient for other participants by providing liquidity when other traders' needs cause a temporary imbalance in the supply and demand for a security. These imbalances are known as inefficiencies, after the economic concept of efficient markets. True inefficiencies (such as an index's price being different from the weighted basket of the constituents of the same index) represent rare, fleeting opportunities for riskless profit. But riskless profit, or arbitrage, is not the only—or even primary—way in which quants improve efficiency. The main inefficiencies quants eliminate (and, thereby, profit from) are not absolute and unassailable, but rather are probabilistic and require risk taking.

A classic example of this is a strategy called statistical arbitrage, and a classic statistical arbitrage example is a pairs trade. Imagine two stocks with similar market capitalizations from the same industry and with similar business models and financial status. For whatever reason, Company A is included in a major market index, an index that many large index funds are tracking. Meanwhile, Company B is not included in any major index. It is likely that Company A's stock will subsequently outperform shares of Company B simply due to a greater demand for the shares of Company A from index funds, which are compelled to buy this new constituent in order to track the index. This outperformance will in turn cause a higher P/E multiple on Company A than on Company B, which is a subtle kind of inefficiency. After all, nothing in the fundamentals has changed—only the nature of supply and demand for the common shares. Statistical arbitrageurs may step in to sell shares of Company A to those who wish to buy, and buy shares of Company B from those looking to sell, thereby preventing the divergence between these two fundamentally similar companies from getting out of hand and improving efficiency in market pricing. Let us not be naïve: They improve efficiency not out of altruism, but because these strategies are set up to profit if indeed a convergence occurs between Companies A and B.

This is not to say that quants are the only players who attempt to profit by removing market inefficiencies. Indeed, it is likely that any alpha-oriented trader is seeking similar sorts of dislocations as sources of profit. And, of course, there are times, such as August 2007, when quants actually cause the markets to be temporarily less efficient. Nonetheless, especially in smaller, less liquid, and more neglected stocks, statistical arbitrage players are often major providers of market liquidity and help establish efficient price discovery for all market participants.

So, what can we learn from a quant's approach to markets? The three answers that follow represent important lessons that quants can teach us—lessons that can be applied by any investment manager.

THE BENEFIT OF DEEP THOUGHT

According to James Simons, the founder of the legendary Renaissance Technologies, one of the greatest advantages quants bring to the investment process is their systematic approach to problem solving. As Dr. Simons puts it, “The advantage scientists bring into the game is less their mathematical or computational skills than their ability to think scientifically.”7

The first reason it is useful to study quants is that they are forced to think deeply about many aspects of their strategy that are taken for granted by nonquant investors. Why does this happen? Computers are obviously powerful tools, but without absolutely precise instruction, they can achieve nothing. So, to make a computer implement a black-box trading strategy requires an enormous amount of effort on the part of the developer. You can't tell a computer to “find cheap stocks.” You have to specify what find means, what cheap means, and what stocks are. For example, finding might involve searching a database with information about stocks and then ranking the stocks within a market sector (based on some classification of stocks into sectors). Cheap might mean P/E ratios, though one must specify both the metric of cheapness and what level will be considered cheap. As such, the quant can build his system so that cheapness is indicated by a 10 P/E or by those P/Es that rank in the bottom decile of those in their sector. And stocks, the universe of the model, might be all U.S. stocks, all global stocks, all large cap stocks in Europe, or whatever other group the quant wants to trade.

All this defining leads to a lot of deep thought about exactly what one's strategy is, how to implement it, and so on. In the preceding example, the quant doesn't have to choose to rank stocks within their sectors. Instead, stocks can be compared to their industry peers, to the market overall, or to any other reasonable group. But the point is that the quant is encouraged to be intentional about these decisions by virtue of the fact that the computer will not fill in any of these blanks on its own.

The benefit of this should be self-evident. Deep thought about a strategy is usually a good thing. Even better, this kind of detailed and rigorous working out of how to divide and conquer the problem of conceptualizing, defining, and implementing an investment strategy is useful to quants and discretionary traders alike. These benefits largely accrue from thoroughness, which is generally held to be a key ingredient to investment or trading success. By contrast, many (though certainly not all) discretionary traders, because they are not forced to be so precise in the specification of their strategy and its implementation, seem to take a great many decisions in an ad hoc manner. I have been in countless meetings with discretionary traders who, when I asked them how they decided on the sizes of their positions, responded with variations on the theme of “Whatever seemed reasonable.” This is by no means a damnation of discretionary investment styles. I merely point out that precision and deep thought about many details, in addition to the bigger-picture aspects of a strategy, can be a good thing, and this lesson can be learned from quants.

THE MEASUREMENT AND MISMEASUREMENT OF RISK

As mentioned earlier in this chapter, the history of LTCM is a lesson in the dangers of mismeasuring risk. Quants are naturally predisposed toward conducting all sorts of measurements, including of risk exposure. This activity itself has potential benefits and downsides. On the plus side, there is a certain intentionality of risk taking that a well-conceived quant strategy encourages. Rather than accepting accidental risks, the disciplined quant attempts to isolate exactly what his edge is and focus his risk taking on those areas that isolate this edge. To root out these risks, the quant must first have an idea of what these risks are and how to measure them. For example, most quant equity traders, recognizing that they do not have sufficient capabilities in forecasting the direction of the market itself, measure their exposure to the market (using their net dollar or beta exposure, commonly) and actively seek to limit this exposure to a trivially small level by balancing their long portfolios against their short portfolios. On the other hand, there are very valid concerns about false precision, measurement error, and incorrect sets of assumptions that can plague attempts to measure risk and manage it quantitatively.

All the blowups we have mentioned, and most of those we haven't, stem in one way or another from this overreliance on flawed risk measurement techniques. In the case of LTCM, for example, historical data showed that certain scenarios were likely, others unlikely, and still others had simply never occurred. At that time, most market participants did not expect that a country of Russia's importance, with a substantial supply of nuclear weapons and materials, would go bankrupt. Nothing like this had ever happened before. Nevertheless, Russia indeed defaulted on its debt in the summer of 1998, sending the world's markets into a frenzy and rendering useless any measurement of risk. The naïve overreliance on quantitative measures of risk, in this case, led to the near-collapse of the financial markets in the autumn of 1998. But for a rescue orchestrated by the U.S. government and agreed on by most of the powerhouse banks on Wall Street, we would have seen a very different path unfold for the capital markets and all aspects of financial life.

Indeed, the credit debacle that began to overwhelm markets in 2007 and 2008, too, was likely avoidable. Banks relied on credit risk models that simply were unable to capture the risks correctly. In many cases, they seem to have done so knowingly, because it enabled them to pursue outsized short-term profits (and, of course, bonuses for themselves). It should be said that most of these mismeasurements could have been avoided, or at least the resulting problems mitigated, by the application of better judgment on the part of the practitioners who relied on them. Just as one cannot justifiably blame weather-forecasting models for the way that New Orleans was impacted by Hurricane Katrina in 2005, it would not make sense to blame quantitative risk models for the failures of those who created and use them. Traders can benefit from engaging in the exercise of understanding and measuring risk, so long as they are not seduced into taking ill-advised actions as a result.

DISCIPLINED IMPLEMENTATION

Perhaps the most obvious lesson we can learn from quants comes from the discipline inherent to their approach. Upon designing and rigorously testing a strategy that makes economic sense and seems to work, a properly run quant shop simply tends to let the models run without unnecessary, arbitrary interference. In many areas of life, from sports to science, the human ability to extrapolate, infer, assume, create, and learn from the past is beneficial in the planning stages of an activity. But execution of the resulting plan is also critical, and it is here that humans frequently are found to be lacking. A significant driver of failure is a lack of discipline.

Many successful traders subscribe to the old trading adage: Cut losers and ride winners. However, discretionary investors often find it very difficult to realize losses, whereas they are quick to realize gains. This is a well-documented behavioral bias known as the disposition effect.8 Computers, however, are not subject to this bias. As a result, a trader who subscribes to the aforementioned adage can easily program his trading system to behave in accordance with it every time. This is not because the systematic trader is somehow a better person than the discretionary trader, but rather because the systematic trader is able to make this rational decision at a time when there is no pressure, thereby obviating the need to exercise discipline at a time when most people would find it extraordinarily challenging. Discretionary investors can learn something about discipline from those who make it their business.

SUMMARY

Quant traders are a diverse and large portion of the global investment universe. They are found in both large and small trading shops and traffic in multiple asset classes and geographical markets. As is obvious from the magnitude of success and failure that is possible in quant trading, this niche can also teach a great deal to any curious investor. Most traders would be well served to work with the same kind of thoroughness and rigor that is required to properly specify and implement a quant trading strategy. Just as useful is the quant's proclivity to measure risk and exposure to various market dynamics, though this activity must be undergone with great care to avoid its flaws. Finally, the discipline and consistency of implementation that exemplifies quant trading is something from which all decision makers can learn a great deal.

NOTES

1. M. Corey Goldman, “Hot Models Rev Up Returns,” HFMWeek.com, April 17, 2007; Jenny Strasburg and Katherine Burton, “Goldman Sachs, AQR Hedge Funds Fell 6% in November (Update3),” Bloomberg.com, December 7, 2007.

2. Gregory Zuckerman, Jenny Strasburg, and Peter Lattman, “Renaissance Waives Fees on Fund That Gave Up 12%,” Wall Street Journal Online, January 5, 2009.

3. Lisa Kassenaar and Christine Harper, “Goldman Sachs Paydays Suffer on Lost Leverage with Fed Scrutiny,” Bloomberg.com, October 21, 2008.

4. Sang Lee, “New World Order: The High Frequency Trading Community and Its Impact on Market Structure,” The Aite Group, February 2009.

5. Peter Starck, “Black Box Trading Has Huge Potential—D. Boerse,” Reuters.com, June 13, 2008.

6. Terry Hendershott, Charles M. Jones, and Albert J. Menkveld, “Does Algorithmic Trading Improve Liquidity?” WFA Paper, April 26, 2008.

7.www.turtletrader.com/trader-simons.html.

8. Hersh Shefrin and Meir Statman, “The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence,” Journal of Finance 40, no. 3 (July 1985).

CHAPTER 2

An Introduction to Quantitative Trading

You see, wire telegraph is a kind of a very, very long cat. You pull his tail in New York and his head is meowing in Los Angeles. Do you understand this? And radio operates exactly the same way: You send signals here, they receive them there. The only difference is that there is no cat.

—Attributed to Albert Einstein, when asked to explain the radio

The term black box conjures up images of a Rube Goldberg device in which some simple input is rigorously tortured to arrive at a mysterious and distant output. Webster's Third New International Dictionary defines a Rube Goldberg device as “accomplishing by extremely complex roundabout means what actually or seemingly could be done simply.” Many observers in both the press and industry use markedly similar terms to describe quants. One Washington Post article, “For Wall Street's Math Brains, Miscalculations; Complex Formulas Used by ‘Quant' Funds Didn't Add Up in Market Downturn,” contains the following definition: “A quant fund is a hedge fund that relies on complex and sophisticated mathematical algorithms to search for anomalies and non-obvious patterns in the markets.”1 In the New York Post's “Not So Smart Now,” we learn that “Quant funds run computer programs that buy and sell hundreds and sometimes thousands of stocks simultaneously based on complex mathematical ratios. . . .”2 Perhaps most revealing, this view is held even by some of the world's best-respected investors. David Swensen, the renowned chief investment officer of the $17 billion Yale University endowment fund and author of Pioneering Portfolio Management, said in an interview with Fortune/CNN Money, “We also don't invest in quantitative–black box models because we simply don't know what they're doing.”3

The term black box itself has somewhat mysterious origins. From what I can tell, its first known use was in 1915 in a sci-fi serial called The Black Box, starring Herbert Rawlinson. The program was about a criminologist named Sanford Quest who invented devices (which themselves were placed inside a black box) to help him solve crimes. Universal Studios, which produced the serial, offered cash prizes to those who could guess the contents of the black box.4

This connotation of opaqueness still persists today whenever the term black box is used. Most commonly in the sciences and in finance, a black box refers to any system that is fed inputs and produces outputs, but whose inner workings are either unknown or unknowable. Appropriately, two favorite descriptors for quant strategies are complex and secretive. However, by the end of this book I think it will be reasonably obvious to readers that, for the most part, quantitative trading strategies are in fact clear boxes that are far easier to understand in most respects than the caprice inherent to most human decision making.

For example, an esoteric-sounding strategy called statistical arbitrage is in fact simple and easily understood. Statistical arbitrage (stat arb) is based on the theory that similar instruments (imagine two stocks, such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron) should behave similarly. If their relative prices diverge over the short run, they are likely to converge again. So long as the stocks are still similar, the divergence is more likely due to a short-term imbalance between the amount of buying and selling of these instruments, rather than any meaningful fundamental change that would warrant a divergence in prices. This is a clear and straightforward premise, and it drives billions of dollars' worth of trading volumes daily. It also happens to be a strategy that discretionary traders use, though it is usually called pairs trading. But whereas the discretionary trader is frequently unable to provide a curious investor with a consistent and coherent framework for determining when two instruments are similar or what constitutes a divergence, these are questions that the quant has likely researched and can address in great detail.

WHAT IS A QUANT?

A quant systematically applies an alpha-seeking investment strategy that is specified based on exhaustive research. What makes a quant a quant, in other words, almost always lies in how an investment strategy is conceived and implemented. It is rarely the case that quants are different from discretionary traders in what their strategies are actually doing, as illustrated by the earlier example of pairs trading and statistical arbitrage. There is almost never any attempt to eliminate human contributions to the investment process; after all, we are talking about quants, not robots. As previously mentioned, although quants apply mathematics and/or computer science to a wide variety of strategies, whether a fund designed to track the S&P 500 (i.e., an index fund) or to structure exotic products (e.g., asset-backed securities, credit default swaps, or principal protection guarantee notes), this book will remain focused on quants who pursue alpha, or returns that are independent of the direction of any market in the long run.

Besides conceiving and researching the core investment strategy, humans also design and build the software and systems used to automate the implementation of their ideas. But once the system “goes live,” human judgment is generally limited in the day-to-day management of a portfolio. Still, the importance of human discretion in such a setup should not be understated. Good judgment is actually what separates the best quants from the mediocre. The kinds of issues listed in the stat arb example are just a small subset of the kinds of decisions that quants almost always have to make, and these fundamental decisions, above all else, drive the strategy's behavior from that time forward. As such, good and bad judgments are multiplied over and over through time as the computer faithfully implements exactly what it was told to do. This is no different from many other fields. Imagine a guided missile system. If the engineers make bad judgments in the way they design these systems, there can be disastrous results, which are multiplied as more missiles are fired using the faulty guidance systems.

To understand the systematic nature of quants better, it can be helpful to examine the frontiers of the systematic approach—in other words, the situations in which quants have to abandon a systematic approach for a discretionary one. When a quant intervenes with the execution of her strategy, it is most commonly to mitigate problems caused by information that drives market behavior but that cannot be processed by the model. For example, the 2008 merger between Merrill Lynch and Bank of America, which caused Merrill's price to skyrocket, might have led a naïve quant strategy to draw the conclusion that Merrill had suddenly become drastically overpriced relative to other banks and was therefore an attractive candidate to be sold short. But this conclusion would have been flawed because there was information that justified the spike in Merrill's price and would not seem to a reasonable person to lead to a short sale. As such, a human can step in and simply remove Merrill from the universe that the computer models see, thereby eliminating the risk that, in this case anyway, the model will make decisions based on bad information. In a sense, this is merely an application of the principle of “garbage in, garbage out.” If a portfolio manager at a quant trading shop is concerned that the model is making trading decisions based on inaccurate, incomplete, or irrelevant information, she may decide to reduce risk by eliminating trading in the instruments affected by this information.

Note that in this example, the news of the merger would already have been announced before the quant decides to override the system. Some shops are more aggressive, preemptively pulling names off the list of tradable securities at the first sign of credible rumors. By contrast, other quants do not remove names under any circumstances. Many quants reserve the right to reduce the overall size of the portfolio (and therefore leverage) if, in their discretion, the markets appear too risky. For example, after the attacks of September 11, 2001, many quants reduced their leverage in the wake of a massive event that would have unknowable repercussions on capital markets. Once things seemed to be operating more normally in the markets, the quants increased their leverage back to normal levels.

Though the operating definition of quants at the beginning of this section is useful, there is a full spectrum between fully discretionary strategies and fully systematic (or fully automated) strategies. The key determination that puts quants on one side of this spectrum and everyone else on the other is whether daily decisions about the selection and sizing of portfolio positions are made systematically (allowing for the exceptions of “emergency” overrides such as those just described) or by discretion. If both the questions of what positions to own and how much of each to own are usually answered systematically, that's a quant. If either one is answered by a human as standard operating procedure, that's not a quant.

It is interesting to note that, alongside the growth in quantitative trading, there are also a growing number of quasi-quant traders. For instance, some of these traders utilize automated systems to screen for potential investment opportunities, thereby winnowing a large number of potential choices down to a much smaller, more manageable list. From there, human discretion kicks in again, doing some amount of “fundamental” work to determine which names selected by the systematic screening process are actually worth owning and which are not. Less commonly, some traders leave the sourcing and selection of trades entirely up to humans, instead using computers to optimize and implement portfolios and to manage risk. Still less commonly, a few traders allow the computer to pick all the trades, while the human trader decides how to allocate among these trades. These quasi-quants make use of a subset of the tools in a proper quant's toolbox, so we will cover their use of these techniques implicitly.

WHAT IS THE TYPICAL STRUCTURE OF A QUANTITATIVE TRADING SYSTEM?

The best way to understand both quants and their black boxes is to examine the components of a quant trading system; this is the structure we will use for the remainder of the book. Exhibit 2.1 shows a schematic of a typical quantitative trading system. This diagram portrays the components of a live, “production” trading strategy (e.g., the components that decide which securities to buy and sell, how much, and when) but does not include everything necessary to create the strategy in the first place (e.g., research tools for designing a trading system).

The trading system has three modules—an alpha model, a risk model, and a transaction cost model—which feed into a portfolio construction model, which in turn interacts with the execution model. The alpha model is designed to predict the future of the instruments the quant wants to consider trading for the purpose of generating returns. For example, in a trend-following strategy in the futures markets, the alpha model is designed to forecast the direction of whatever futures markets the quant has decided to include in his strategy.

Risk models, by contrast, are designed to help limit the amount of exposure the quant has to those factors that are unlikely to generate returns but could drive losses. For example, the trend follower could choose to limit his directional exposure to a given asset class, such as commodities, because of concerns that too many forecasts he follows could line up in the same direction, leading to excess risk; the risk model would contain the levels for these commodity exposure limits.

The transaction cost model, which is shown in the box to the right of the risk model in Exhibit 2.1, is used to help determine the cost of whatever trades are needed to migrate from the current portfolio to whatever new portfolio is desirable to the portfolio construction model. Almost any trading transaction costs money, whether the trader expects to profit greatly or a little from the trade. Staying with the example of the trend follower, if a trend is expected to be small and last only a short while, the transaction cost model might indicate that the cost of entering and exiting the trade is greater than the expected profits from the trend.

EXHIBIT 2.1 Basic Structure of a Quant Trading Strategy

The alpha, risk, and transaction cost models then feed into a portfolio construction model, which balances the trade-offs presented by the pursuit of profits, the limiting of risk, and the costs associated with trading, thereby determining the best portfolio to hold. Having made this determination, the system can compare the current portfolio to the new target portfolio, with the differences between the current portfolio and the target portfolio representing the trades that need to be executed. Exhibit 2.2 illustrates an example of this process.

EXHIBIT 2.2 Moving from an Existing Portfolio to a New Target Portfolio

The current portfolio reflects the positions the quant trader currently owns. After running the portfolio construction model, the quant trader generates the new target portfolio weights, shown in the New Target Portfolio column. The difference between the two indicates the trades that now need to be executed, which is the job of the execution algorithm. The execution algorithm takes the required trades and, using various other inputs such as the urgency with which the trades need to be executed and the dynamics of the liquidity in the markets, executes trades in an efficient and low-cost manner.

The structure shown in Exhibit 2.1 is by no means universal. For example, many quant strategies are run without a transaction cost model, a portfolio construction model, or an execution model. Others combine various components of these models. One can build whatever risk requirements and constraints are considered necessary into the alpha model itself. Another variation is to create more recursive connections among the pieces. Some traders capture data about their actual executions and utilize these data to improve their transaction cost models. However, the diagram is useful because, for the most part, it captures the various discrete functions within a quant trading system, regardless of whether they are organized precisely in this manner.

Exhibit 2.1 captures only part of the work of the quant trader because it considers only the live production trading system and ignores two key pieces required to build it and run it: data and research. Black boxes are inert and useless without data—accurate data, moreover. Quant traders build input/output models that take inputs (data), process this information, and then produce trading decisions. For example, a trader utilizing a trend-following strategy usually requires price data to determine what the trend is. Without data, he would have nothing to do, because he'd never be able to identify the trends he intends to follow. As such, data are the lifeblood of quants and determine much about their strategies. Given data, quants can perform research, which usually involves some form of testing or simulation. Through research, the quant can ascertain whether and how a quant strategy works. We also note that each of the other modules in our schematic, when built correctly, usually requires a great deal of research. We can therefore redraw our diagram to include these other critical pieces, as shown in Exhibit 2.3.

EXHIBIT 2.3 The Black Box Revealed

SUMMARY

Quants are perhaps not so mysterious as is generally supposed. They tend to start with ideas that any reasonable observer of the markets might also have, but rather than using anecdotal, experiential evidence—or worse, simply assuming that their ideas are true—quants use market data to feed a research process to determine whether their ideas in fact hold true over time. Once quants have arrived at a satisfactory strategy, they build their strategy into a quant system. These systems take the emotion out of investing and instead impose a disciplined implementation of the idea that was tested. But this should not be read as minimizing the importance of human beings in the quant trading process. Quants come up with ideas, test strategies, and decide which ones to use, what kinds of instruments to trade, at what speed, and so on. Humans also tend to control a “panic button,” which allows them to reduce risk if they determine that markets are behaving in some way that is outside the scope of their models' capabilities.

Quant strategies are widely ignored by investors as being opaque and incomprehensible. Even those who do focus on this niche tend to spend most of their time understanding the core of the strategy, its alpha model. But we contend that there are many other parts of the quant trading process that deserve to be understood and evaluated. Transaction cost models help determine the correct turnover rate for a strategy, and risk models help keep the strategy from betting on the wrong exposures. Portfolio construction models balance the conflicting desires to generate returns, expend the right amount on transaction costs, manage risk, and deliver a target portfolio to execution models, which implement the portfolio model's decisions. All this activity is fed by data and driven by research. From afar, we have begun to shed light on the black box.

Next, in Part Two, we will dissect each of these modules, making our way methodically through the inside of the black box. At the end of each of these chapters, as a reminder of the structure of a quant system and of our progress, we will indicate the topic just completed by removing the shading from it.