Intermarket Analysis E-Book

John J. Murphy

• Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
• Kategorie: Fachliteratur
• Serie: Wiley Trading Series
• Sprache: Englisch
• Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2011

Seitenzahl: 341

Beschreibung

Praise for Intermarket Analysis "John Murphy has done it again. He dissects the global relationships between equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities like no one else can, and lays out an irrefutable case for Intermarket Analysis in plain English. This book is a must-read for all serious traders." -Louis B. Mendelsohn, creator of VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis software "John Murphy's Intermarket Analysis should be on the desk of every trader and investor if they want to be positioned in the right markets at the right time." -Thom Hartle, President, Market Analytics, Inc. (www.thomhartle.com) "This book is full of valuable information. As a daily practitioner of Intermarket Analysis, I thought I knew most aspects of this invaluable subject, but this book gave me several new ideas. I thoroughly recommend it for beginners and professionals." -Martin Pring, President of Pring.com and editor of the Intermarket Review Newsletter "Mr. Murphy's Intermarket Analysis is truly the most efficient and unambiguous way to define economic and fundamental relationships as they unfold in the market. It cuts through all of the conflicting economic news/views expressed each day to provide a clear picture of the 'here and now' in the global marketplace." -Dennis Hynes, Managing Director, R. W. Pressprich "Master Murphy is back with the quintessential look at intermarket analysis. The complex relationships among financial instruments have never been more important, and this book brings it all into focus. This is an essential read for all investors." -Andrew Bekoff, Technical Strategist, VDM NYSE Specialists "John Murphy is a legend in technical analysis, and a master at explaining precisely how the major markets impact each other. This updated version provides even more lessons from the past, plus fresh insights on current market trends." -Price Headley, BigTrends.com, author of Big Trends in Trading

Leseprobe

Table of Contents

Title Page

Copyright Page

Dedication

Acknowledgments

Introduction

EARLIER BOOK COVERED THE 1980s

JAPANESE BUBBLE BURSTS IN 1990

THIRD ANNIVERSARY OF 2000 MARKET TOP

THE DEFLATION SCENARIO

INTERMARKET MODEL FROM 1980 TO 1997

THEN CAME 1998 AND THINGS CHANGED

THE ROLE OF OIL

THE RESURGENCE OF GOLD

ASSET ALLOCATION AND ECONOMIC FORECASTING

IMPORTANCE OF CHARTS

CHAPTER 1 - A Review of the 1980s

COMMODITIES PEAK IN 1980

DOLLAR BOTTOMS IN 1980

BONDS BOTTOM IN 1981

STOCKS BOTTOM IN 1982

HOW THE FOUR MARKET GROUPS INTERRELATE

1987 STOCK MARKET CRASH REVISITED

COMMODITIES RISE, BONDS FALL DURING SPRING OF 1987

STOCK MARKET PEAKS IN AUGUST

DOLLAR FALLS WITH STOCKS

THE 1987 MARKET CRASH WAS GLOBAL

LATER EXAMPLES OF GLOBAL LINKAGES

THE DOLLAR’S IMPACT CAN BE DELAYED

ONWARD AND UPWARD TO 1990

CHAPTER 2 - 1990 and the First Persian Gulf War

BONDS TURN DOWN IN EARLY 1990

CRB TURNS UP IN EARLY 1990

BONDS AND STOCKS DIVERGE

GLOBAL MARKETS DON’T CONFIRM U.S. RALLY

IRAQ INVADES KUWAIT IN AUGUST

OIL AND GOLD SOAR

EVERYTHING REVERSES AT THE START OF WAR

1990 DIVERGENCE BETWEEN OIL AND OIL SHARES

THE IMPORTANCE OF $40 OIL

INTERMARKET LESSONS LEARNED DURING 1990

COMPARISONS BETWEEN 2003 AND 1991

JAPAN NEVER RECOVERS

CHAPTER 3 - The Stealth Bear Market of 1994

THINGS LOOK GOOD FROM 1990 THROUGH 1993

A DESCRIPTION OF THE CRB INDEX

THE CRB INDEX TURNS UP IN EARLY 1993

WATCH INDUSTRIAL PRICES

THE JOURNAL OF COMMERCE (JOC-ECRI) INDEX

GOLD AND OIL ARE ALSO IMPORTANT

GOLDMAN SACHS COMMODITY INDEX

BONDS PEAK AHEAD OF STOCKS

THE STEALTH BEAR MARKET

A LOSS FOR UTILITIES IS A GAIN FOR METALS IN 1994

INTERMARKET PICTURE REVERSES IN 1995

THE CRB/BOND RATIO

BONDS AND STOCKS RISE TOGETHER UNTIL 1998

CHAPTER 4 - The 1997 Asian Currency Crisis and Deflation

ASIAN CURRENCY CRISIS STARTS IN 1997

BONDS AND STOCKS START TO DECOUPLE

THE DEFLATION SCENARIO

1997 AND 1998 WERE ONLY A DRESS REHEARSAL

INTERMARKET PICTURE DURING 1997 AND 1998

THE DOLLAR VERSUS COMMODITIES

HONG KONG AND INDUSTRIAL METALS PEAK TOGETHER

COMMODITIES VERSUS BONDS

BONDS VERSUS STOCKS

BONDS AND STOCKS DIVERGE IN 1998

THE CRB/BOND RATIO AND SECTOR ROTATION

CONSUMER VERSUS CYCLICAL STOCKS

CRB/BOND RATIO COLLAPSES DURING 1997

RELATIVE STRENGTH ANALYSIS

PLOTTING A RATIO OF TWO COMPETING SECTORS

INTERMARKET LESSONS OF 1997 AND 1998

CHAPTER 5 - 1999 Intermarket Trends Leading to Market Top

1999 SEES REVERSAL OF 1998 TRENDS

COMMODITIES JUMP AT START OF 1999

COMMODITIES AND RATES TREND TOGETHER

INDUSTRIAL COMMODITIES AND OIL BOTTOM

THE IMPACT OF RISING RATES ON STOCKS

NYSE ADVANCE-DECLINE LINE FALLS IN 1999

INTERMARKET SECTOR EFFECT

RISING CRUDE WAS GOOD FOR OIL SHARES

TRANSPORTATION STOCKS FALL HARD

FINANCIAL STOCKS LOSE FAVOR DURING 1999

OTHER SECTOR INFLUENCES

SECTOR ROTATION AND THE ECONOMY

GLOBAL INFLUENCES IN 1999

HONG KONG AND SEMICONDUCTORS

THE AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR AND COMMODITY PRICES

CHAPTER 6 - Review of Intermarket Principles

INTRODUCTION

AN EVOLUTIONARY STEP IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

EMPHASIS ON SECTOR WORK

ASSET ALLOCATION STRATEGIES

THE BASIC PREMISE OF INTERMARKET ANALYSIS

GLOBAL MARKETS

GLOBAL SECTOR TRENDS

JAPAN’S EFFECT ON U.S. MARKETS

JAPAN EFFECT OVERRIDES THE FED

ECONOMIC LESSONS

THE TECHNICAL NATURE OF INTERMARKET ANALYSIS

ADVANTAGES OF CHARTING—THE BIG VIEW

ECONOMIC FORECASTING

MARKETS ANTICIPATE ECONOMIC TRENDS

THE ROLE OF THE DOLLAR

GLOBAL IMPACT OF CURRENCY TRENDS

DOLLAR IMPACT ON MULTINATIONALS

MCDONALDS AND PROCTER & GAMBLE PROFIT FROM WEAK DOLLAR

DOLLAR IMPACT ON DRUG STOCKS

SMALL STOCKS ARE DOMESTIC

WEAK DOLLAR ALSO HELPS SERVICE STOCKS

RECAP OF INTERMARKET PRINCIPLES

CHAPTER 7 - The Nasdaq Bubble Bursts in 2000

AN HISTORIC YEAR

INVERTED YIELD CURVE IMPLIES ECONOMIC WEAKNESS

THE WARNING SIGNS WERE THERE ON THE CHARTS

SEEING THINGS AS THEY HAPPEN

JANUARY 30, 2000: YIELD CURVE INVERSION

1969 ALL OVER AGAIN?

JANUARY LOWS BROKEN

CASH IS GOOD

APRIL 15, 2000: NASDAQ BREAKS MOVING AVERAGE LINE-NYSE FAILURE

REITS HOLD UP

REITS SHOW GOOD RELATIVE STRENGTH

REIT INDEX TURNS UP

APRIL 21, 2000: MARKET’S ECONOMIC MESSAGE—ECONOMIC SLOWING

COPPER AND LONG RATES PEAK TOGETHER AT START OF 2000

ECONOMIC WEAKNESS FAVORS CONSUMER STAPLES

CONSUMER STAPLES START TO OUTPERFORM

THINGS COULD NOT BE BETTER

AUGUST 11, 2000: SHIFT TO VALUE

SECTOR ROTATION WITHIN THE ECONOMIC CYCLE

WHY IT IS BAD WHEN ENERGY AND CONSUMER STAPLES ARE STRONG

NOVEMBER 10, 2000: IT’S THE ECONOMY

TWOFOLD USE OF SECTOR ROTATION DIAGRAM

THE LESSONS OF 2000

CHAPTER 8 - Intermarket Picture in Spring 2003

FLIGHT TO GOLD

BONDS AND COMMODITIES TREND IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS

SEPTEMBER 11 REVERSALS

COMMODITIES FOLLOW THE LEAD OF STOCKS

STOCKS LEAD COMMODITIES HIGHER

BOND AND STOCK PRICES TREND IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS

SEPTEMBER 11 REVERSES TRENDS

FALLING STOCKS ARE GOOD FOR GOLD

MAY 22, 2002: MAJOR DOLLAR TOP IN THE MAKING

FALLING DOLLAR IS BULLISH FOR GOLD

GOLD STOCKS SHINE

ONE YEAR LATER: THE FED DISCOVERS DEFLATION

LETTING THE DOLLAR FALL

CHAPTER 9 - Falling Dollar During 2002 Boosts Commodities

COMMODITIES INFLATE

DOLLAR PEAK COINCIDES WITH COMMODITY BOTTOM

BONDS AND COMMODITIES DECOUPLE

WAR PREMIUM PUSHES OIL HIGHER

COMMODITY DIVERGENCE: WEATHER VERSUS THE ECONOMY

INDUSTRIAL METALS AND INTEREST RATES TREND TOGETHER

COMMODITY PRICES AND BOND YIELDS NORMALLY TREND TOGETHER

ASIAN DEFLATION PULLS U.S. RATES LOWER

GLOBAL BEAR

JAPAN PULLING WORLD MARKETS LOWER

DEFLATION SCENARIO: U.S. STOCKS AND RATES FALL TOGETHER

COMMODITIES GAIN FROM BATTLE AGAINST DEFLATION

DOLLAR TOP LEADS TO NEW BULL MARKET IN GOLD

SWING BACK TO HARD ASSETS?

CHAPTER 10 - Shifting from Paper to Hard Assets

GOLD COMES BACK INTO FAVOR

GOLD BREAKS 15-YEAR RESISTANCE LINE

GOLD TURNS UP AS STOCKS TURN DOWN

COMMODITIES OUTPERFORM STOCKS FOR FIRST TIME IN 20 YEARS

WHY 2003 WAS NOT A REPLAY OF 1991

CYCLICAL TRENDS VERSUS SECULAR

HISTORICAL RESEARCH ON CYCLICAL BULLS

SECULAR BEAR IN STOCKS IS GOOD FOR GOLD

RISING CURRENCY MARKETS

THE FALLING DOLLAR HURTS GLOBAL MARKETS

CHINA NOT AFFECTED BY DOLLAR MOVES

COMMODITY CURRENCIES RALLY

USING THE FUTURES MARKETS

NOT A LOT OF ALTERNATIVES IN TRADITIONAL MARKETS

BUYING COMMODITY-RELATED STOCKS

CHAPTER 11 - Futures Markets and Asset Allocation

RELATIVE STRENGTH ANALYSIS AMONG ASSET CLASSES

BONDS VERSUS STOCKS

COMMODITIES VERSUS BONDS

THE DOW/GOLD RATIO

INCLUDING COMMODITIES AND CURRENCIES

CAN FUTURES PLAY A ROLE IN ASSET ALLOCATION?

BUILT-IN ASSET ALLOCATION MODEL

CHARTS COMPARING FUTURES MARKETS—GOING LONG OR SHORT

USING MANAGED FUTURES ACCOUNTS

FUTURES PORTFOLIOS CORRELATE POORLY WITH BONDS AND STOCKS

COMMODITY FUTURES AS AN ASSET CLASS

PUSHING THE EFFICIENT FRONTIER

TREATING CURRENCIES AS AN ASSET CLASS

THE IMPACT OF A FALLING DOLLAR

GOLD MEASURED IN FOREIGN CURRENCIES

GOLD/CURRENCY RATIOS ARE RISING

GOLD IS STRONGER THAN ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES

SUMMARY

CHAPTER 12 - Intermarket Analysis and the Business Cycle

THE FOUR-YEAR BUSINESS CYCLE

THE BUSINESS CYCLE EXPLAINS INTERMARKET ROTATION

THE CHRONOLOGICAL SEQUENCE OF BONDS, STOCKS, AND COMMODITIES

BONDS ARE THE FOCAL POINT

THE SIX STAGES OF THE BUSINESS CYCLE

LESSONS OF 2000

BONDS AS A LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATOR

STOCKS AND COMMODITIES AS LEADING INDICATORS

MORE ON THE JOC INDEX

PREDICTING THE 2001 RECESSION

THE THREE MARKETS FOLLOWED THE PROPER ROTATION FOR TOPS

MARKET ROTATIONS DURING THE 1920s AND 1930s

COMMODITIES PEAKED IN 1920

BONDS BOTTOM DURING 1920

STOCKS BOTTOM DURING 1921

BONDS TURN DOWN IN 1928

BONDS AND STOCKS DECOUPLE IN 1929—COMMODITIES PLUNGE

STOCKS AND COMMODITIES BOTTOM TOGETHER IN EARLY 1930S

REFLATING DURING THE 1930s

BOND YIELDS SPIKE UP TEMPORARILY IN 1931

STOCKS AND COMMODITIES COMPLETE BOTTOMS IN EARLY 1940s

ROTATING ASSET CLASSES OVER DECADES

LESSONS OF LONG CYCLES

THE KONDRATIEFF WAVE

DIVIDING A LIFETIME CYCLE INTO FOUR SEASONS

CHAPTER 13 - The Impact of the Business Cycle on Market Sectors

SECTOR ROTATION WITHIN THE BUSINESS CYCLE

SECTOR ROTATION IN 2000 FAVORED CONTRACTION

ANOTHER VIEW OF THE ECONOMIC CYCLE

SECTOR ROTATIONS DURING 2003 SUGGEST EARLY EXPANSION

SECTOR LEADERSHIP MOVES TO CONSUMERS AND TECHNOLOGY

RELATIVE STRENGTH OF CONSUMER SPENDING

RETAIL BUYING

TECHNOLOGY LEADERSHIP IS A GOOD SIGN

NASDAQ LEADS MARKET HIGHER DURING 2003

TRANSPORTATION LEADERSHIP

CYCLICALS STARTING TO OUTPERFORM STAPLES

SMALLER STOCKS LEAD AT BOTTOMS

SECTOR ROTATION MODEL

SECTOR ROTATION MODEL SUPPORTING DATA

INTEREST RATE TRENDS

THE YIELD CURVE

YIELD CURVE FLATTENS DURING 2003

ANOTHER VIEW OF THE YIELD CURVE

CHAPTER 14 - Diversifying with Real Estate

LOCATION IS EVERYTHING

THIS CYCLE HAS BEEN DIFFERENT

REITS TURN UP AS NASDAQ PEAKS

ROLE REVERSALS IN 2000

THINGS START TO CHANGE DURING THE SUMMER OF 2002

REITS PEAK IN 2002 AS MARKET BOTTOMS

REITS UNDERPERFORM AFTER SUMMER OF 2002

HOUSING IS INTEREST RATE-SENSITIVE

REAL ESTATE DOES NOT ALWAYS FOLLOW INFLATION

REAL ESTATE DOES NOT ALWAYS FOLLOW INTEREST RATES

REAL ESTATE DOES NOT ALWAYS FOLLOW STOCKS

THE LONG CYCLE IN REAL ESTATE ACTIVITY

COMPARISON TO OTHER CYCLES

SIMILARITIES AND DIFFERENCES: PRESENT DAY AND THE 1930s

HISTORY OF REAL ESTATE CYCLE SINCE 1940

ARE HOMEBUILDING STOCKS LINKED TO STOCKS OR RATES?

HOMEBUILDERS DECOUPLE FROM MARKET DURING 1999

HOUSING STOCKS LINK TO INTEREST RATES

MARKET ROTATION DURING 2000

HOMEBUILDERS AND STOCKS RE-LINK

FED’S DEFLATION FIGHT BOOSTS HOUSING STOCKS

THE HOUSING TRADEOFF

JAPANESE REAL ESTATE COLLAPSED TWO YEARS AFTER STOCKS

CHAPTER 15 - Thinking Globally

ALL MARKETS ARE RELATED

GLOBAL TRADE INCREASES IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATES

EMERGING MARKETS

MORE INTERMARKET EMPHASIS ON SECTOR WORK

THE INTERMARKET MODEL IS NOT STATIC

BONDS AND STOCKS DECOUPLE

WHY WE NEED TO STUDY HISTORY

THE DECADE AFTER MARKET BOOMS ARE NOT VERY GOOD

INTERMARKET IMPLICATIONS FOR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

THE NEED FOR BETTER PERIPHERAL VISION

INTERMARKET WORK IS AN EVOLUTIONARY STEP

THERE IS STILL A LOT TO LEARN

Appendix

Index

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