Listening to the Future E-Book

Daniel W. Rasmus

• Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
• Kategorie: Fachliteratur
• Serie: Microsoft Executive Circle
• Sprache: Englisch

Seitenzahl: 315

Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2009

Beschreibung

Listening to the Future: Why It's Everybody's Business explores the challenges and opportunities facing organizations, the transformations that will ripple through the political, economic, and social environments, and the implications for different industries in the 21st century workplace. Written by Microsoft forecasters Daniel W. Rasmus and Rob Salkowitz, this important book equips your business to get out in front of new technology innovations in the consumer world with the knowledge, practices, and tools to differentiate your business in our competitive, fast-moving global economy.

Leseprobe

Table of Contents

Title Page

Copyright Page

Foreword

Teaser chapter

Preface

Acknowledgements

CHAPTER 1 - Listening to the Future

EMBRACING UNCERTAINTY

THE SHAPE OF THINGS TO COME

TECHNOLOGY AND THE CHANGING WORLD

PEOPLE MAKE THE FUTURE

NOTE

CHAPTER 2 - Managing a Dynamic Business

DRIVING FORCES

STRATEGIC TECHNOLOGY CAPABILITIES

TENETS FOR SUCCESS

NOTES

CHAPTER 3 - Prospering in a Blended World

DRIVING FORCES

STRATEGIC WORKPLACE TECHNOLOGIES

BLENDING BEYOND THE WORKPLACE

TENETS FOR SUCCESS

BLEND TRENDS

NOTES

CHAPTER 4 - Insights from Complexity

DRIVING FORCES

STRATEGIC TECHNOLOGIES TO DRIVE INSIGHTS

TENETS FOR SUCCESS

SOURCES OF INSIGHT

NOTES

CHAPTER 5 - Building Strategic Advantage Through IT

THE CHALLENGE OF MEASURING RETURN ON KNOWLEDGE

WHY IT MATTERS

WHY APPLICATIONS MATTER

WHY PLATFORMS MATTER

WHY INFRASTRUCTURE MATTERS

CREATING A DIALOG BETWEEN BUSINESS AND IT

TENETS FOR SUCCESS

WHY IT STILL MATTERS

EIGHT WAYS TO ACHIEVE MORE STRATEGIC IT

KEY INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS FOR COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE

NOTES

CHAPTER 6 - From the New World of Business to the New World of Work

ONE WORLD OF BUSINESS

ALWAYS ON, ALWAYS CONNECTED

TRANSPARENT ORGANIZATIONS

WORKFORCE EVOLUTION

CHAPTER 7 - Managing Knowledge and Talent in the New World of Business

MANAGING KNOWLEDGE IN ONE WORLD OF BUSINESS

KNOWLEDGE ANYWHERE, ANYTIME

KNOWLEDGE IN THE TRANSPARENT ORGANIZATION

MANAGING KNOWLEDGE FOR A CHANGING WORKFORCE

FROM “KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT” TO MANAGING TALENT AND KNOWLEDGE

COMPLEXITY AND SPECIALIZATION

SIMPLIFYING THE KNOWLEDGE WORK ENVIRONMENT

TOWARD A DYNAMIC KNOWLEDGE ENVIRONMENT

NAVIGATING THE DYNAMIC KNOWLEDGE ENVIRONMENT

EMBRACING ORGANIZATIONAL LEARNING

10 STARTING POINTS FOR DYNAMIC KNOWLEDGE ENTERPRISES

NOTES

CHAPTER 8 - The Future of Industries

MANUFACTURING

RETAIL

GOVERNMENT/PUBLIC SECTOR

RETAIL BANKING AND INSURANCE

HEALTHCARE

EDUCATION

PROFESSIONAL SERVICES

CHAPTER 9 - Hearing the Future

STRATEGY AND UNCERTAINTIES

EXPOSING THE DYNAMIC UNCERTAINTY LOOP

FINDING THE SIGNAL IN THE NOISE

LOOKING FORWARD

NOTES

Afterword

Index

Copyright © 2009 Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved.

Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey.

Published simultaneously in Canada.

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data:

eISBN : 978-0-470-57790-5

Microsoft Executive Leadership Series: Series Foreword

The Microsoft Executive Leadership Series provides leaders with inspiration and examples to consider when forming business strategies to stand the test of time. As the pace of change quickens and the influence of social demographics, the impact of educational reform, and the impetus of national interests evolve, organizations that understand and embrace these underlying forces can build strategy on solid ground. Increasingly, information technology is bridging social, educational, and international distances, and empowering people to perform at their fullest potential. Organizations that succeed in the enlightened use of technology will increasingly differentiate themselves in the marketplace for talent, raw materials, and customers.

I talk nearly every day to executives and policy makers grappling with issues like globalization, workforce evolution and the impact of technology on people and processes. The idea for this series came from those conversations—we see it as a way to distill what we’ve learned as a company into actionable intelligence. The authors bring independent perspectives, expertise, and experience. We hope their insights will spark dialogs within organizations, among communities, and between partners about the critical relationship between people and technology in the workplace of the future.

I hope you enjoy this title in the Microsoft Executive Leadership Series and find it useful as you plan for the expected and unexpected developments ahead for your organization. It’s our privilege and our commitment to be part of that conversation.

DANIEL W. RASMUS

General Editor, Microsoft Executive Leadership Series

Titles in the Executive Leadership Series:

Rules to Break and Laws to Follow by Don Peppers and Martha Rogers, 2008.

Generation Blend by Rob Salkowitz, 2008.

Uniting the Virtual Workforce by Karen Sobel Lojeski and Richard Reilly, 2008.

Drive Business Performance by Bruno Aziza and Joey Fitts, 2008.

Listening to the Future by Daniel W. Rasmus with Rob Salkowitz, 2009.

Business Agility by Michael Hugos, 2009.

Leading the Virtual Workforce by Karen Sobel Lojeski and Richard Reilly, 2009.

Preface

Listening tothe Future is the product of more than four years of ongoing research, planning sessions, and conversations with customers, partners, policy-makers, and experts. In addition to offering Microsoft’s perspective on the future of business and work, it provides a glimpse behind the scenes to explore how the world’s leading software company looks at issues beyond technology, and thinks strategically about the landscape that customers will face.

At Microsoft, the scenario planning process is not simply a thought exercise. It is a tool to assist in the development of business strategy, product design, and marketing. Dan has shared many of the ideas in this book with hundreds of customers in executive briefing sessions, leading to deeper levels of engagement and intriguing exchanges. Some customers have used the ideas and methods as springboards for their own internal strategy conversations—not just around software and technology, but in explorations of fundamental issues facing their own business and industry.

Microsoft has published some of this material before, as white papers and as a special-order book. This new trade edition features a vastly revised, extended and refined look at the earlier themes, packaged to appeal to a broad audience interested in the future of business and the future of work. We encourage people to engage with these ideas, argue, question, and challenge them, and in the process, realize some of the benefits that Microsoft has gained from listening to the future.

DANIEL W. RASMUS

ROB SALKOWITZ

November, 2008

Acknowledgments

The authors wish to thank Chris Capossela, Betsy Frost, Sam Hickman, Larry Marion, Lawrence Wilkinson, Liz Longworth, Gigi Villa, Heidi Metz, Bill Roberts, Alice Shimmin, Anna Sprague, Rebecca Alexander, Jan Shanahan, Guy Roadruck, Chris Munson, and the teams at Triangle Publishing Services, MediaPlant LLC, and BuzzBee Company for their input and assistance on this project. Thanks also to Tim Burgard and the editorial and production team at Wiley and Sons for all their support in bringing this book to press.

CHAPTER 1

Listening to the Future

In ancient times, leaders would perform elaborate sacrifices and rituals in an attempt to gain some cryptic bit of foreknowledge that might give them an advantage against rival armies or palace intrigues. The future, after all, was just one of a great many mysteries that the human intellect had yet to penetrate. The Ouija board, the Zodiac, or the I-Ching seemed as good a technology as any to ascertain the unknowable.

Thousands of years of human history have passed, but accurately forecasting future conditions still requires more art than science. Today we possess more data about the world, better tools for analysis, and mature theories about how the universe works, but as these extremely powerful components come together to highlight trends and explain complex natural phenomena, they highlight the weaknesses of prediction just as often. Greater data about the universe brings into question fundamental beliefs about physics. The mapping of the human genome forces a reevaluation of “junk DNA” as previously hidden connections and functions are revealed. Economic theories that presupposed the existence of “rational actors” now increasingly contain footnotes about forecasts as underlying assumptions about behaviors and relationships in the economy shift. Although our interpretation of cause and effect is often accurate, many models still reflect outputs whose origins vary greatly with subtle changes to initial conditions. Despite the limitations of forecasting, we can use our analysis, combined with insight, to identify potential problems years in advance and start formulating policies to address them before they become a crisis; or we can spot opportunities and attempt to arrive at the right place, at the right time, to take advantage of them.