139,99 €
Mehr erfahren.
- Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
- Kategorie: Fachliteratur
- Sprache: Englisch
The objective of the book is to provide all the elements to evaluate the performance of production availability and reliability of a system, to integrate them and to manage them in its life cycle. By the examples provided (case studies) the main target audience is that of the petroleum industries (where I spent most of my professional years). Although the greatest rigor is applied in the presentation, and justification, concepts, methods and data this book is geared towards the user.
Sie lesen das E-Book in den Legimi-Apps auf:
Seitenzahl: 346
Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2018
Ähnliche
Table of Contents
Cover
Preface
1 Basic Concepts
1.1. Introduction
1.2. Definition of terms
1.3. Definition of parameters
1.4. The exponential law/the constant failure rate
1.5. The bathtub curve
2 Mathematics for Reliability
2.1. Introduction
2.2. Basis of probability and statistics
2.3. Formulae and theorems
2.4. Useful discrete probability distributions
2.5. Useful continuous probability distributions
2.6. Statistical estimates
2.7. Fitting of failure distribution
2.8. Hypothesis testing
2.9. Bayesian reliability
2.10. Extreme value probability distributions
3 Assessment of Standard Systems
3.1. Introduction
3.2. Single item
3.3. System reliability
3.4. Specific architectures
3.5. On-guard items
4 Classic Methods
4.1. Introduction
4.2. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
4.3. Fault trees
4.4. Reliability block diagrams
4.5. Monte Carlo method
5 Petri Net Method
5.1. Introduction
5.2. Petri nets
5.3. IEC 62551 extensions
5.4. Additional extensions
5.5. Facilities provided by software packages
5.6. Petri net construction
5.7. Case study
6 Sources of Reliability Data
6.1. Introduction
6.2. The OREDA project
6.3. The PDS handbook
6.4. Reliability Analysis Center/Reliability Information Analysis Center publications
6.5. Other publications
6.6. Missing information
7 Use of Reliability Test and Field Data
7.1. Introduction
7.2. Reliability test data
7.3. Field data
7.4. Accelerated tests
7.5. Reliability growth
8 Use of Expert Judgment
8.1. Introduction
8.2. Basis
8.3. Characteristics of the experts
8.4. Use of questionnaires
8.5. Use of interactive group
8.6. Use of individual interviews
8.7. Bayesian aggregation of judgment
8.8. Validity of expert judgment
9 Supporting Topics
9.1. Introduction
9.2. Common cause failures
9.3. Mechanical reliability
9.4. Reliability of electronic items
9.5. Human reliability
10 System Reliability Assessment
10.1. Introduction
10.2. Definition of reliability target
10.3. Methodology of system reliability study
10.4. SIL studies
10.5. Description of the case study
10.6. System analysis
10.7. Qualitative analysis
10.8. Quantitative data selection
10.9. System reliability modeling
10.10. Synthesis
10.11. Validity of system reliability assessments
11 Production Availability Assessment
11.1. Introduction
11.2. Definition of production availability target
11.3. Methodology
11.4. System analysis
11.5. Quantitative data selection
11.6. Production availability assessment
11.7. Synthesis
11.8. Uncertainty on the reliability parameters
11.9. Validity of production availability assessments
12 Management of Production Availability and Reliability
12.1. Introduction
12.2. Principles of dependability management
12.3. Technical specifications
12.4. Reliability and production availability program
12.5. Validation of system reliability
12.6. Validation of production availability
Appendices
Appendix 1: Notations and Abbreviations
Appendix 2: Markov Chain
Appendix 3: Comparison of Modeling Methods
Appendix 4: Solutions of Exercises
Bibliography
Index
End User License Agreement
List of Tables
1 Basic Concepts
Table 1.1.
The four safety integrity levels
2 Mathematics for Reliability
Table 2.1.
Useful rules of Boolean algebra
Table 2.2.
Median rank calculation for example 2.6
Table 2.3.
Validity of Benard’s formula
Table 2.4.
Calculations of Kolmogorov test statistic for example 2.7
Table 2.5.
Characteristics of the product of two specific conjugates
3 Assessment of Standard Systems
Table 3.1.
Reliability data for items in Figure 3.4
Table 3.2.
Value of PFD
avg
for five redundancy configurations (without CCF)
4 Classic Methods
Table 4.1.
Reliability and test data for case study 4.3.4
6 Sources of Reliability Data
Table 6.1.
Values of estimates assuming homogeneous and heterogeneous samples
8 Use of Expert Judgment
Table 8.1.
Comparison of the three elicitation methods
Table 8.2.
Comparison estimate of expert-true value
Table 8.3.
Formula for assessing constant failure rate and probability to fail upon demand
9 Supporting Topics
Table 9.1.
Weight of the factors in IEC 61508 table for assessing
β
Table 9.2.
Parameters of the shock method versus beta-factors
Table 9.3.
PDS method: value of main C
MooN
Table 9.4.
Impact of the CCF on system reliability
Table 9.5.
MIL-HDBK-217 environmental factors and oil and gas units
Table 9.6.
Comparison of reliability predictions according to [IMD 09]
Table 9.7.
Comparison of reliability predictions according to [EPS 05]
10 System Reliability Assessment
Table 10.1.
Examples of SIF
Table 10.2.
RRF and SIL equivalence
Table 10.3.
Selected reliability and proof test data
11 Production Availability Assessment
Table 11.1.
Mean production availability vs. number of runs (Monte Carlo simulation)
Table 11.2.
Example of additional results: use of support vessels for subsea plants
Table 11.3.
Comparison of results considering the uncertainty on the reliability parameters
Appendix 2: Markov Chain
Table A2.1.
Useful Laplace transforms
Appendix 3: Comparison of Modeling Methods
Table A3.1.
Reliability and capacity data
Table A3.2.
Results
Guide
Cover
Table of Contents
Begin Reading
Pages
C1
iii
iv
v
xv
xvi
xvii
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300
301
302
303
304
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
323
324
325
326
G1
G2
G3
G4
G5
G6
G7
G8
G9
e1
Series Editor
Jean-Paul Bourrières
Production Availability and Reliability
Use in the Oil and Gas Industry
Alain Leroy
First published 2018 in Great Britain and the United States by ISTE Ltd and John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, this publication may only be reproduced, stored or transmitted, in any form or by any means, with the prior permission in writing of the publishers, or in the case of reprographic reproduction in accordance with the terms and licenses issued by the CLA. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside these terms should be sent to the publishers at the undermentioned address:
ISTE Ltd27-37 St George’s RoadLondon SW19 4EUUK
www.iste.co.uk
John Wiley & Sons, Inc.111 River StreetHoboken, NJ 07030USA
www.wiley.com
© ISTE Ltd 2018
The rights of Alain Leroy to be identified as the author of this work have been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
Library of Congress Control Number: 2018930621
British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data
A CIP record for this book is available from the British Library
ISBN 978-1-78630-168-0
Preface
Any industry is continuously modifying its processes, its organization and its management to cater for new problems. These modifications are part of the day-to-day job as long as these new problems look like the steps of a staircase. This approach is no longer valid if these new problems look like a wall: new equipment, new techniques, new principles, etc., are to be implemented. Reliability engineering emerged as an answer to some of these problems along the years; it finds its roots as a new discipline on the fact that “at the beginning of the Korean War about 70% of Navy electronic gear did not operate properly” [KEC 02]. Reliability engineering soon became part of the equipment development programs in the defense industry and in the civil nuclear industry, with an emphasis on safety performances.
Although it can be considered that the oil and gas industry started to implement these techniques by the mid-70’s with the beginning of subsea production, it took around one more decade for the industry to use them on a regular basis. However, the oil and gas industry is the first industry to perform production availability studies on a regular basis and as part of its plant development programs (offshore units first).
The aim of this book is to provide all of the information requested for efficient specification, assessment, follow-up and management of production availability and reliability characteristics of petroleum systems (upstream, midstream, downstream and petrochemical industries). However, nearly all of the book can be used in most industries, the “oil” theme being mainly on the examples of use provided. The chapters are grouped in five sections, which are given below.
1) Fundamentals are given in
Chapters 1
,
2
and
3
. Definitions as well as mathematics are kept at the minimum vital. However, the meaning and the validity of the bathtub curve and of the early life period are provided with details in
Chapter 1
. Nearly all of the mathematics used in this book is given in
Chapter 2
. Although it is uncommon to do a reliability calculation without a standard laptop computer, basic formulae as well as the availability and reliability of standard systems are given in
Chapter 3
. These formulae are to be considered as a tool for orientating and validating (as far as possible) complex calculations.
2) Modeling techniques are provided in
Chapters 4
and
5
and
Appendix 2
. Failure mode and effects analysis, reliability block diagrams, fault trees and Monte Carlo simulation are described in
Chapter 4
, but
Chapter 5
is dedicated to Petri nets that are not used so much in the oil and gas industry
1
. Markov chains are given in
Appendix 2
as they are not used to assess production availability or reliability parameters in the oil and gas industry.
3)
Chapters 6
,
7
and
8
explain the ways to obtain reliability data. It is uncommon to devote three chapters to reliability data (one on reliability data sources, one on methods for obtaining data from reliability tests and field and one on the use of expert judgment) but the rest of the book is meaningless without them.
4) Techniques that can be considered as a support to the others in the book are in
Chapter 9
. As the limit to high levels of reliability is a common cause of failure, their origin and the existing methods of analysis are presented and a review of existing data sources performed. However, a major theme, “the human factor”, is considered quite briefly as the validity of existing human error quantification methods and data has not been proved in the oil and gas industry. Review of reliability engineering of electronics items and reliability engineering of mechanical pieces are the other topics considered.
5) The assessment of system production availability and system reliability characteristics and their management are explained in
Chapters 10
,
11
and
12
. These chapters provide not only recommendations and case studies but also answers to questions such as “what we can expect from these studies, when to do them, how to perform them, how to specify them, how to include them within the plant life”.
Chapter 12
on management is not only the last chapter of the book but rather it is the one binding all of the others.
As the literature in reliability engineering is large, the references given allow the reader to go deeper into several topics. An extensive use of standards is made as their number and their quality improved drastically over last 10 years.
In any industry, production availability and reliability studies are too often considered as “nice to have”, aiming at demonstrating that contractual requirements are met. A way of preventing the occurrence of this deviation (source of waste of time and money) is to organize the collaboration of reliability technicians and oil and gas professionals all along the life of the project, as well as the use of up-to-date input data and the best modeling techniques. As such, the intended audiences for this book would be as follows:
1) Oil and gas practicing engineers who do not perform any production availability or reliability assessment but want to understand the available techniques, to know the data sources and the results to expect from such assessments.
Chapters 7
,
8
and
9
(except common cause failures) can be skipped for that purpose.
2) Experienced reliability analysts in such assessments seeking to extend their range of expertise. The reading of
Chapters 2
(apart from
section 2.9
on Bayesian reliability), 3, 4 and 7 is unlikely to participate in this extension.
3) Oil and gas managers wanting to understand the benefits of these assessments and the way to use them efficiently.
Chapters 1
,
10
,
11
and
12
are to be read in full for that purpose.
4) Students in availability and reliability wanting to improve their knowledge in production availability and reliability and to apply them to a specific industrial sector. For that purpose,
Chapters 6
and
12
can be skipped.
In addition, comments are provided in the introduction of each chapter to render the reading easier for each of these populations.
Although the book was designed to be easy to read, a rigorous approach was used for any subject. As such, mathematics is used extensively even for the definitions of terms.
I would like to thank my reviewers Brian Monty, Denis Berthelot and Frederic Doux, for their invaluable help.
Alain LEROYFebruary 2018
1
The author of the book started to work with Petri nets in the 80’s.
