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Constantin Zopounidis

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A Comprehensive Guide to Quantitative Financial Risk Management Written by an international team of experts in the field, Quantitative Financial Risk Management: Theory and Practice provides an invaluable guide to the most recent and innovative research on the topics of financial risk management, portfolio management, credit risk modeling, and worldwide financial markets. This comprehensive text reviews the tools and concepts of financial management that draw on the practices of economics, accounting, statistics, econometrics, mathematics, stochastic processes, and computer science and technology. Using the information found in Quantitative Financial Risk Management can help professionals to better manage, monitor, and measure risk, especially in today's uncertain world of globalization, market volatility, and geo-political crisis. Quantitative Financial Risk Management delivers the information, tools, techniques, and most current research in the critical field of risk management. This text offers an essential guide for quantitative analysts, financial professionals, and academic scholars.

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Table of Contents

Title Page

Copyright

Dedication

Preface

About the Editors

Section One: Supervisory Risk Management

Chapter 1: Measuring Systemic Risk: Structural Approaches

Systemic Risk: Definitions

From Structural Models to Systemic Risk

Measuring Systemic Risk

Systemic Risk and Copula Models

Conclusions

References

Chapter 2: Supervisory Requirements and Expectations for Portfolio-Level Counterparty Credit Risk Measurement and Management

Introduction

Review of the Literature

Supervisory Requirements for CCR

Conceptual Issues in CCR: Risk versus Uncertainty

Conclusions

References

Chapter 3: Nonperforming Loans in the Bank Production Technology

Introduction

Selective Literature Review

Method

Empirical Application

Summary and Conclusion

Appendix 3.1 Bank Names and Type

References

Section Two: Risk Models and Measures

Chapter 4: A Practical Guide to Regime Switching in Financial Economics

A Brief Look at Markov Regime Switching in Academic Economics and Finance

Regime Switching and Interest Rate Processes

Regime Switching and Exchange Rates

Regime Switching, Stock Returns, and Asset Allocation

Single-Asset Markov Models

Two-State Estimation

Three-State Estimation

Markov Models for Multiple Assets

Practical Application of Regime Switching Models for Investment Purposes

Intuitive Appeal of Such Models

Implementation Challenges

Selecting the “Right” Model Structure

Calibrating the Selected Model Type to Suitable Data

Drawing the Right Conclusions from the Model

References

Chapter 5: Output Analysis and Stress Testing for Risk Constrained Portfolios

Introduction

Worst-Case Analysis

Stress Testing via Contamination

Conclusions and New Problems

References

Chapter 6: Risk Measures and Management in the Energy Sector

Introduction

Uncertainty Characterization via Scenarios

Measures of Risks

Case Studies

Summary

References

Section Three: Portfolio Management

Chapter 7: Portfolio Optimization: Theory and Practice

Static Portfolio Theory

Importance of Means

Stochastic Programming Approach to Asset Liability Management

Siemens InnoALM Pension Fund Model

Dynamic Portfolio Theory and Practice: The Kelly Capital Growth Approach

Transactions Costs

Some Great Investors

Appendix 7.1: Estimating Utility Functions and Risk Aversion

References

Chapter 8: Portfolio Optimization and Transaction Costs

Introduction

Literature Review on Transaction Costs

An LP Computable Risk Measure: The semi-MAD

Modeling Transaction Costs

Non-Unique Minimum Risk Portfolio

Experimental Analysis

Conclusions

Appendix

References

Chapter 9: Statistical Properties and Tests of Efficient Frontier Portfolios

Introduction

Notation and Setup

Distribution of Portfolio Weights

Empirical Study

Discussion and Concluding Remarks

References

Section Four: Credit Risk Modelling

Chapter 10: Stress Testing for Portfolio Credit Risk: Supervisory Expectations and Practices

Introduction and Motivation

Conceptual Issues in Stress Testing: Risk versus Uncertainty

The Function of Stress Testing

Supervisory Requirements and Expectations

Empirical Methodology: A Simple ST Example

Conclusion and Future Directions

References

Chapter 11: A Critique of Credit Risk Models with Evidence from Mid-Cap Firms

Introduction

Summary of Credit Model Methodologies

Our Empirical Methodology

Critique

Conclusions

References

Chapter 12: Predicting Credit Ratings Using a Robust Multicriteria Approach

Introduction

Credit Scoring and Rating

Multicriteria Methodology

Empirical Analysis

Conclusions and Future Perspectives

References

Section Five: Financial Markets

Chapter 13: Parameter Analysis of the VPIN (Volume-Synchronized Probability of Informed Trading) Metric

Introduction

Definition of VPIN

Computational Cost

Optimization of FPR

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ)

Conclusion

References

Chapter 14: Covariance Specification Tests for Multivariate GARCH Models1

Introduction

Covariance Specification Tests

Application of Covariance Specification Tests

Empirical Findings and Discussion

Conclusion

References

Chapter 15: Accounting Information in the Prediction of Securities Class Actions

Introduction

Literature Review

Methodology

Data

Results

Conclusions

References

About the Contributors

Chris Adcock

David E. Allen

Vassiliki Balla

Marida Bertocchi

Iain Clacher

Jitka Dupačová

Mark Freeman

Hirofumi Fukuyama

Rosella Giacometti

David Hillier

Michael Jacobs JR., Ph.D., CFA

Malcolm Kemp

Miloš Kopa

Gregory Koutmos

Raimund M. Kovacevic

Renata Mansini

Wlodzimierz Ogryczak

Georg Ch. Pflug

Robert J. Powell

Horst D. Simon

Abhay K. Singh

Jung Heon Song

M. Grazia Speranza

Maria Teresa Vespucci

William L. Weber

Kesheng Wu

Qi Zhang

William T. Ziemba

Constantin Zopounidis

Glossary

Index

End User License Agreement

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Guide

Cover

Table of Contents

Preface

Section One: Supervisory Risk Management

Begin Reading

List of Illustrations

Chapter 1: Measuring Systemic Risk: Structural Approaches

Figure 1.1 The distribution of the number of affected banks using the assumptions of Example 2. Left: the uncorrelated case (ρ = 0). Right: the weakly correlated case (ρ = 0.2).

Figure 1.2 The distribution of the number of affected banks using the assumptions of Example 2. Left: the medium correlated case (ρ = 5). Right: the highly correlated case (ρ = 0.8).

Figure 1.3 Left: All banks are independent, VaR

0.99

= 25; Right: All correlations are , VaR

0.99

= 29.

Figure 1.4 Left: All correlations are , VaR

0.99

= 41; Right: All correlations are , VaR

0.99

= 57.

Figure 1.5 The system consists of two independent subsystems with internal correlations . Left: , VaR

0.99

= 28; Right: , VaR

0.99

= 35.

Figure 1.6 The system consists of two independent subsystems with internal correlations . Left: , VaR

0.99

= 44; Right: One subsystem has , the other , VaR

0.99

= 32.

Chapter 2: Supervisory Requirements and Expectations for Portfolio-Level Counterparty Credit Risk Measurement and Management

Figure 2.1 Expected positive exposure for CCR.

Figure 2.2 Effective EE and effective EPE for CCR.

Figure 2.3 Stylized representation of economic capital.

Chapter 3: Nonperforming Loans in the Bank Production Technology

Figure 3.1 Actual, frontier, and optimal loans.

Figure 3.2 Actual, frontier, and optimal securities investments.

Figure 3.3 Actual, frontier, and optimal nonperforming loans.

Chapter 4: A Practical Guide to Regime Switching in Financial Economics

Figure 4.1 Standard Deviation of US Stock Returns 1871–2014.

Figure 4.2 Probability of being in a Bear State (60 Month Average).

Chapter 5: Output Analysis and Stress Testing for Risk Constrained Portfolios

Figure 5.1 Lower and upper bound for a concave optimal value function.

Figure 5.2 Comparison of minimal (CVaR(t)) value of mean-CVaR model with lower bound (LB), upper bound (UB) and the estimated upper bound (EUB).

Figure 5.3 Comparison of minimal mean loss with its lower bound (LB) and upper bound (UB).

Chapter 6: Risk Measures and Management in the Energy Sector

Figure 6.1 The spot switching model.

Figure 6.2 The spot switching model.

Figure 6.3 Scenario for CO

2

price. (EUA).

Figure 6.4 The hydro system.

Figure 6.5 Profit distribution for different risk aversion parameters using CVaR with α equal to 5 percent, budget = 3.84 G€ and a market electricity price of 106€/MWh.

Figure 6.6 Profit distribution for different risk aversion parameters using CVaR with α equal to 5 percent, budget = 14.5 G€ and a market electricity price of 106 €/MWh.

Figure 6.7 Percentage of new capacity installed for the case of budget = 14.5 G€, CVaR and

ρ

= 0.5.

Figure 6.8 Net present value of optimal expected profit when investment is in a single technology (only the available technologies are shown).

Chapter 7: Portfolio Optimization: Theory and Practice

Figure 7.1 Two efficient frontiers: (a) Markowitz mean-variance efficient frontier; (b) Tobin's risk-free asset and separation theorem.

Figure 7.2 Utility of wealth function for Donald Hausch.

Figure 7.3 Risk aversion functions for Donald Hausch (a) absolute risk aversion function estimated by the certainly equivalent method (1) and gain and loss equivalent method; (b) relative risk aversion function estimated by the certainly equivalent method (1) and gain and loss equivalent method (2).

Figure 7.4 Functional forms asset weights: (a) Quadratic monthly ; (b) Exp monthly ; (c) Special exp monthly ; (d) Neg power monthly .

Figure 7.5 Mean variance and second order stochastic dominance: (a) Dominance does not exist; (b) Dominance exists.

Figure 7.6 Mean percentage cash equivalent loss due to errors in inputs.

Figure 7.7 Average turnover for different percentage changes in means, variances, and covariances.

Figure 7.8 Optimal equity and bond allocations in period 1 of the InnoALM model.

Figure 7.9 The effects of state-dependent correlations: optimal weights conditional on quintiles of portfolio weights in periods 2 and 5 of the InnoALM model: (a) Stage 2; (b) Stage 5.

Figure 7.10 Two distributions with the same mean and variance.

Figure 7.11 Time and events in institutional and individual ALM models.

Figure 7.12 Asset weights over time with a stochastic control continuous time Merton type model.

Figure 7.13 Example portfolios: (a) Initial portfolios of the three strategies; (b) Contingent allocations at year one.

Figure 7.14 The optimal stochastic strategy dominates fixed mix.

Figure 7.15 Comparison of advantage of stochastic programming over fixed mix model in and out of sample: (a) In-sample; (b) Out-of-sample.

Figure 7.16 Layout of the Russell-Yasuda Kasai model.

Figure 7.17 Yasuda Kasai's asset liability decision process.

Figure 7.18 Emerging and developed market returns, 1900–2013

Figure 7.19 Real equity returns and per capita GDP, 1900–2013

Figure 7.20 Elements of InnoALM.

Figure 7.21 S&P500 index and U.S. government bond returns, 2000–2002.

Figure 7.22 Rolling correlations between U.S. equity and government bond returns.

Figure 7.23 Cumulative monthly returns for different strategies.

Figure 7.24 A typical full Kelly wealth path.

Figure 7.25 Final wealth trajectories: Ziemba-Hausch (1986) Model: (a) Highest; (b) Lowest.

Figure 7.26 Mutuel pools for 1983 Kentucky Derby.

Figure 7.27 Four Great Investors: (a) John Maynard Keynes, King's College, Cambridge, 1927–1945; (b) Bill Benter, 1989–1991; (c) Ed Thorp, Princeton Newport Hedge Fund 1969–1988; (d) Jim Simons, Renaissance Medallion Hedge Fund, 1993–2005.

Figure 7.28 The wealth paths and return distributions of Berkshire Hathaway, Quantum, Tiger, Windsor, the Ford Foundation, and the S&P500, 1985–2000: (a) Growth of assets, log scale, various high performing funds, 1985–2000.

Source

: Ziemba (2003); (b) Return distributions of all the funds, quarterly returns distribution, December 1985 to March 2000.

Source

: Ziemba (2005)

Figure 7.29 Medallion Fund, January 1993 to April 2005: (a) Rates of return in increasing order by month, %; (b) Wealth over time.

Figure 7.30 Riskiness as a percentage of maximum variance versus .

Chapter 8: Portfolio Optimization and Transaction Costs

Figure 8.1 Pure fixed cost structure (left-hand figure) and proportional cost with minimum charge structure (right-hand figure).

Figure 8.2 A convex piecewise linear cost function.

Figure 8.3 A concave piecewise linear cost function.

Chapter 10: Stress Testing for Portfolio Credit Risk: Supervisory Expectations and Practices

Figure 10.1 Historical charge-off rates. Reprinted by permission from Inanoglu, Jacobs, Liu, and Sickles (2013).

Figure 10.2 Distribution of VaR. Reprinted by permission from Inanoglu and Jacobs (2009).

Figure 10.3 Stylized representation of economic capital.

Figure 10.4 Correlations among risk types. Reprinted with permission from Inanoglu and Jacobs 2009.

Figure 10.5 Stressed regulatory capital example.

Figure 10.6 Bond return index return—Time series (January 2, 1997, to December 19, 2011).

Figure 10.7 Default rate data—Time series.

Figure 10.8 VIX and C&I charge-off rate—Time series.

Figure 10.9 Fama–French factors—Time series.

Figure 10.10 GDP, CPI, and oil prices—Time series.

Figure 10.11 Stress test results—Graphs of unexpected vs. expected loss in stagflation scenario.

Chapter 12: Predicting Credit Ratings Using a Robust Multicriteria Approach

Figure 12.1 The process for developing credit-rating models.

Figure 12.2 Piecewise linear modeling of a marginal value function.

Figure 12.3 Marginal value functions.

Chapter 13: Parameter Analysis of the VPIN (Volume-Synchronized Probability of Informed Trading) Metric

Figure 13.1 E-mini S&P 500s VPIN metric on May 6.

Figure 13.2 Idealized trading model.

Figure 13.3 Flowchart of how a VPIN event is classified.

Figure 13.4 Time (seconds) needed to construct volume bars with different nominal prices.

Figure 13.5 MADS algorithm.

Figure 13.6 Pseudocode of VNS.

Figure 13.7 Semilog of Sobol indices of the four parameters.

Chapter 15: Accounting Information in the Prediction of Securities Class Actions

Figure 15.1 Majority voting rule.

Figure 15.2 Number of SCAs per year.

List of Tables

Chapter 1: Measuring Systemic Risk: Structural Approaches

Table 1.1 Conditional VaR and correlation for example 1

Chapter 3: Nonperforming Loans in the Bank Production Technology

Table 3.1 Trends in the Configuration of Japanese Banking Industry

Table 3.2 Descriptive Statistics for 101 Banks over 5 Years

Table 3.3 Estimates of

Table 3.4 Price Estimates and Inefficiency

Table 3.5 Average Optimal Quantities Allowing Time Substitution (std. dev.) (trillions of yen)

Chapter 4: A Practical Guide to Regime Switching in Financial Economics

Table 4.1 Conditional and Unconditional Asset Returns Descriptive Statistics

Table 4.2 Conditional and Unconditional Asset Returns Descriptive Statistics

Table 4.3 Asset Returns Descriptive Statistics

Table 4.4 Asset Returns Descriptive Statistics (State 1)

Table 4.5 Asset Returns Descriptive Statistics (State 2)

Chapter 5: Output Analysis and Stress Testing for Risk Constrained Portfolios

Table 5.1 Descriptive Statistics and the Additional Scenario of Returns of 8 European Stock Indexes and of the Risk-Free Asset

Chapter 6: Risk Measures and Management in the Energy Sector

Table 6.1 Alternative Values of “Estimated Price over Price in Year 0” Ratio (Coal Price in Year 0: 115 €/t (12.3 €/MWh)

Table 6.2 Alternative Values of “Estimated Price over Price in Year 0” Ratio (Gas Price in Year 0: 0.3 €/Nm

3

(31.3 €/MWh)

Table 6.3 Alternative Values of “Estimated Price over Price in Year 0” Ratio (Nuclear Fuel Price in Year 0: 2100 €/kg (2.21 €/MWh)

Table 6.4 Hydro Basin Data: Capacity, Initial and Minimum Final Storage Volumes

Table 6.5 Hydro Arc Data: Energy Coefficient and Capacity

Table 6.6 Certainty Equivalent with Two Sources of Stochasticity

Table 6.7 Power Plants Owned by the Power Producer in Year 0

Table 6.8 Technology Mix Obtained with CVaR and Different Risk Aversion Parameters—Budget: 3.84 G€

Table 6.9 Technology Mix Obtained with CVaR and Different Risk Aversion Parameters—Budget: 14.5 G€

Chapter 7: Portfolio Optimization: Theory and Practice

Table 7.1 Optimal Portfolio Weights for Alternative Utility Functions and

Table 7.2 Average Ratio of CEL for Errors in Means, Variances, and Covariances

Table 7.3 Russell Business Engineering Models

Table 7.4 Dimensions of a Typical Implemented Problem

Table 7.5 Expected Allocations for Initialization Period: INI (100 million yen: percentages by account)

Table 7.6 Expected Allocations in the End Effects Period

Table 7.7 Asset Structure of European Pension Funds

Table 7.8 Means, Standard Deviations, and Correlations Assumptions Based on 1970–2000 Data

Table 7.9 Statistical Properties of Asset Returns

Table 7.10 Optimal Initial Asset Weights at Stage 1 (in %)

Table 7.11 Expected Terminal Wealth, Expected Reserves, and Probabilities of Shortfalls with a Target Wealth,

W

t

= 206.1

Table 7.12 Final Wealth Statistics by Kelly Fraction: Ziemba-Hausch (1986) Model Kelly Fractions

Table 7.13 Comparison of Ordinary and Symmetric Downside Sharpe Yearly Performance Measures, Monthly Data, and Arithmetic Means

Table 7.14 Medallion Fund Net Returns, %, January 1993 to April 2005

Chapter 8: Portfolio Optimization and Transaction Costs

Table 8.1 State of the Art on Portfolio Optimization with Transaction Costs

Table 8.2 Rates of Return (in %) for Three Assets under Three Scenarios

Table 8.3 Transaction Costs Applied by Banks Operating in Italy

Table 8.4 Computational Results: Pure Proportional Cost Structure with

c

j

= 0.25 percent for all

j

N

Table 8.5 Computational Results: Pure Fixed Cost Structure with

f

j

= 10 euros for all

j

N

Table 8.6 Computational Results: Proportional Cost with Minimum Charge Structure with Fixed Cost Equal to 10 euros for a Minimum Charge up to 4,000 euros and 0.25% Proportional Cost for Larger Values of Capital

Chapter 9: Statistical Properties and Tests of Efficient Frontier Portfolios

Table 9.1 Descriptive Statistics

Table 9.2 Covariance/Correlation Matrix

Table 9.3 Univariate Confidence Limits for Tangency Portfolio Weights

Table 9.4 Likelihood Ratio and

Z

-tests for Univariate Tangency Portfolio Weights

Table 9.5 Robustness of 99% Confidence Intervals for the Univariate Tangency Portfolio Weights

Table 9.6 Simultaneous 95 and 99% Confidence Intervals for Tangency Portfolio Weights

Table 9.7 Likelihood Ratio and Chi-Squared Tests for a Multivariate Tangency Portfolio

Table 9.8 Likelihood Ratio Tests for Minimum Variance Portfolios

Table 9.9 Properties of Estimate Risk Appetite Corresponding to a Target Expected Return

Table 9.10 Effect of Variability in Risk Appetite on Portfolio Weights

Chapter 10: Stress Testing for Portfolio Credit Risk: Supervisory Expectations and Practices

Table 10.1 Bond Return Index Return—Summary Statistics and Correlations (January 2, 1997, to December 19, 2011)

Table 10.2 Moody's Credit Ratings Migration Matrix

Table 10.3 Default Rate Data—Summary Statistics

Table 10.4 Risk Factor Data—Summary Statistics

Table 10.5 Stress Testing Example Regression Results

Table 10.6 Stress Test Results of Alternative Scenarios

Chapter 11: A Critique of Credit Risk Models with Evidence from Mid-Cap Firms

Table 11.1 Mapping Ratings

Table 11.2 Results from Ratings-Based Models

Table 11.3 Results from Accounting-Based Models

Table 11.4 Results from Structural Credit Models

Table 11.5 Summary of the Strengths and Weaknesses of Each Model

Chapter 12: Predicting Credit Ratings Using a Robust Multicriteria Approach

Table 12.1 Sample Composition (Number of Observations) by Year, Country, and Business Sector

Table 12.2 Percentage of Sample Observations in Each Risk Category

Table 12.3 Averages of Independent Variables by Rating Group

Table 12.4 Trade-offs (in %) of the Attributes

Table 12.5 Classification Accuracies (in %) for the Holdout Samples

Chapter 13: Parameter Analysis of the VPIN (Volume-Synchronized Probability of Informed Trading) Metric

Table 13.1 The 10 Parameter Combinations That Produced the Smallest Average False Positive Rate

α

Table 13.2 Non-VNS Optimal Parameter Sets

Table 13.3 VNS Optimal Parameter Sets

Table 13.4 Optimization Results with Different Starting Points

Table 13.5 VNS Optimization Results with Different Starting Points

Table 13.6 Parameter Bounds Using Five Sampled Points, with

τ

as the Controllable Input

Table 13.7 Joint Sobol Sensitivity Indices

Table 13.8 Parameter Bounds with

π

as Controllable Input (5 Sampled Points)

Table 13.9 Sobol Sensitivity Indices

Table 13.10 Parameter Bounds with

π

as Controllable Input (7 Sampled Points)

Table 13.11 Sobol Sensitivity Indices

Table 13.12 Parameter Bounds with

π

as Controllable Input (7 Sampled Points)

Table 13.13 Sobol Sensitivity Indices

Chapter 14: Covariance Specification Tests for Multivariate GARCH Models1

Table 14.1 Specification Tests for Standardized Residuals

Table 14.2 Covariance Specification Tests

Chapter 15: Accounting Information in the Prediction of Securities Class Actions

Table 15.1 Description and Number of Filings by Sector

Table 15.2 Summary of Training and Validation Samples

Table 15.3 Descriptive Statistics for the Two Groups and Nonparametric Test

Table 15.4 Pearson Correlation among the Variables

Table 15.5 Final Set of Input Variables

Table 15.6 Coefficients of LA

Table 15.7 Coefficients of DA and SVMs

Table 15.8 Weights of Variables in the UTADIS and MHDIS

Table 15.9 Summary of results

Table 15.10 Accounting Information

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by Frank J. Fabozzi, Peter N. Kolm, Dessislava A. Pachamanova, and Sergio M. Focardi

Advanced Stochastic Models, Risk Assessment, and Portfolio Optimizations

by Svetlozar T. Rachev, Stogan V. Stoyanov, and Frank J. Fabozzi

How to Select Investment Managers and Evaluate Performance

by G. Timothy Haight, Stephen O. Morrell, and Glenn E. Ross

Bayesian Methods in Finance

by Svetlozar T. Rachev, John S. J. Hsu, Biliana S. Bagasheva, and Frank J. Fabozzi

The Handbook of Municipal Bonds

edited by Sylvan G. Feldstein and Frank J. Fabozzi

Subprime Mortgage Credit Derivatives

by Laurie S. Goodman, Shumin Li, Douglas J. Lucas, Thomas A Zimmerman, and Frank J. Fabozzi

Introduction to Securitization

by Frank J. Fabozzi and Vinod Kothari

Structured Products and Related Credit Derivatives

edited by Brian P. Lancaster, Glenn M. Schultz, and Frank J. Fabozzi

Handbook of Finance: Volume I: Financial Markets and Instruments

edited by Frank J. Fabozzi

Handbook of Finance: Volume II: Financial Management and Asset Management

edited by Frank J. Fabozzi

Handbook of Finance: Volume III: Valuation, Financial Modeling, and Quantitative Tools

edited by Frank J. Fabozzi

Finance: Capital Markets, Financial Management, and Investment Management

by Frank J. Fabozzi and Pamela Peterson-Drake

Active Private Equity Real Estate Strategy

edited by David J. Lynn

Foundations and Applications of the Time Value of Money

by Pamela Peterson-Drake and Frank J. Fabozzi

Leveraged Finance: Concepts, Methods, and Trading of High-Yield Bonds, Loans, and Derivatives

by Stephen Antczak, Douglas Lucas, and Frank J. Fabozzi

Modern Financial Systems: Theory and Applications

by Edwin Neave

Institutional Investment Management: Equity and Bond Portfolio Strategies and Applications

by Frank J. Fabozzi

Quantitative Equity Investing: Techniques and Strategies

by Frank J. Fabozzi

Probability and Statistics for Finance

by Svetlozar T. Rachev, Markus Hoechstoetter, Frank J. Fabozzi, and Sergio M. Focardi

The Basics of Finance: An Introduction to Financial Markets, Business Finance, and Portfolio Management

by Pamela Peterson Drake and Frank J. Fabozzi

Simulation and Optimization in Finance: Modeling with MATLAB, @Risk, or VBA

by Dessislava Pachamanova and Frank J. Fabozzi

Emerging Market Real Estate Investment: Investing in China, India, and Brazil

by David J. Lynn and Tim Wang

The Handbook of Traditional and Alternative Investment Vehicles: Investment Characteristics and Strategies

by Mark J. P. Anson and Frank J. Fabozzi

Financial Models with Levy Processes and Volatility Clustering

by Svetlozar T. Rachev, Young Shin Kim, Michele L. Bianchi, Frank J. Fabozzi

Complying with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS)

by Bruce J. Feibel and Karyn D. Vincent

Mortgage-Backed Securities: Products, Structuring, and Analytical Techniques, Second Edition

by Frank J. Fabozzi and Anand K. Bhattacharya

Quantitative Credit Portfolio Management: Practical Innovations for Measuring and Controlling Liquidity, Spread, and Issuer Concentration Risk

by Arik Ben Dor, Lev Dynkin, Jay Hyman, and Bruce D. Phelps

Analysis of Financial Statements, Third Edition

by Pamela Peterson Drake and Frank J. Fabozzi

Mathematical Methods for Finance: Tools for Asset and Risk Management

by Sergio M. Focardi and Frank J. Fabozzi

Financial Advice and Investment Decisions: A Manifesto for Change

by Jarrod W. Wilcox and Frank J. Fabozzi

The Basics of Financial Econometrics: Tools, Concepts, and Asset Management Applications

by Frank J. Fabozzi, Sergio M. Focardi, Svetlozar T. Rachev, Bala G. Arshanapalli, and Markus Hoechstoetter

Quantitative Financial Risk Management: Theory and Practice

by Constantin Zopounidis and Emilios Galariotis

Quantitative Financial Risk Management

Theory and Practice

CONSTANTIN ZOPOUNIDIS

EMILIOS GALARIOTIS

 

Cover Image: © wrangler/Shutterstock.com

Cover Design: Wiley

Copyright © 2015 by Constantin Zopounidis and Emilios Galariotis. All rights reserved.

Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey.

Published simultaneously in Canada.

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Zopounidis, Constantin.

Quantitative financial risk management: theory and practice / Constantin Zopounidis, Emilios Galariotis.

pages cm. – (The Frank J. Fabozzi series)

Includes index.

ISBN 978-1-118-73818-4 (hardback)

1. Financial risk management. I. Galariotis, Emilios. II. Title.

HD61.Z67 2015

332–dc23

This work is dedicated to our families for their support and encouragement, as well as for their understanding.

More specifically, Constantin Zopounidis wishes to dedicate this to his wife, Kalia, and children, Dimitrios and Helene.

Emilios Galariotis wishes to dedicate this to his wife, Litsa, his children, Irini and Vasileios, and his parents, Christos and Irini.

Preface

The book Quantitative Financial Risk Management: Theory and Practice provides an invaluable forum for creative and scholarly work on financial risk management, risk models, portfolio management, credit risk modeling, portfolio management, and financial markets throughout the world.

Quantitative financial risk management consists of economics, accounting, statistics, econometrics, mathematics, stochastic processes, and computer science and technology. The tools of financial management are more frequently being applied to manage, monitor, and measure risk, especially in the context of globalization, market volatility, and economic crisis.

The main objectives of this book are to advance knowledge related to risk management and portfolio optimization, as well as to generate theoretical knowledge with the aim of promoting research within various sectors wherein financial markets operate. Chapters will relate to one of these areas, will have a theoretical and/or empirical problem orientation, and will demonstrate innovation in theoretical and empirical analyses, methodologies, and applications.

We would like to thank the assistant editors Georgios Manthoulis and Stavroula Sarri for their invaluable help. We extend appreciation to the authors and referees of these chapters, and to the editors at John Wiley & Sons, Inc., for their assistance in producing this book.

The editors,Constantin ZopounidisEmilios Galariotis

About the Editors

Constantin Zopounidis is professor of Financial Engineering and Operations Research at Technical University of Crete in Greece, distinguished research professor at Audencia Nantes, School of Management (EQUIS, AMBA, AACSB) in France, senior academician of the Royal Academy of Doctors and the Royal Academy of Economics and Financial Sciences of Spain, and elected president of the Financial Engineering and Banking Society (FEBS).

His research interests include financial engineering, financial risk management, and multiple-criteria decision making. He has edited and authored more than 70 books in international publishers and more than 450 research papers in scientific journals, edited volumes, conference proceedings, and encyclopedias in the areas of finance, accounting, operations research, and management science. Prof. Zopounidis is editor-in-chief and member of the editorial board of several international journals. In recognition of his scientific work, he has received several awards from international research societies.

Emilios Galariotis is professor of Finance at Audencia Nantes School of Management (AMBA, EQUIS, AACSB) in France. He is the founder and director of the Centre for Financial and Risk Management (CFRM) and head of research in the area of Finance, Risk, and Accounting Performance at Audencia.

His academic career started at Durham University and head of research in the area of Finance, Risk, and Accounting Performance as well as co-chair of the department of Accounting and Finance at Audencia. UK. There, beyond his academic role. His academic career started at Durham University, UK (Top 100 in the world, 3rd oldest in England), he was also director of Specialized Finance Masters Programs. His research interests include behavioral finance and market efficiency, contrarian and momentum investment strategies, and liquidity.

His work has been published in quality refereed journals, such as (to mention only the most recent) the European Journal of Operational Research, the Journal of Banking and Finance, as well as the Wiley Encyclopedia of Management. Professor Galariotis is associate editor and member of the editorial board of several international journals, and member of the board of directors of the Financial Engineering and Banking Society and distinguished researcher at various research centers.

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