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- Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
- Kategorie: Fachliteratur
- Sprache: Englisch
A startlingly insightful exploration of contemporary leadership In Ruthlessly Caring: And other paradoxical mindsets leaders need to be future-fit, leadership strategist Amy Walters Cohen delivers a one-of-a-kind insight into contemporary business leadership. In the book, you'll explore how the leadership environment is being radically redefined by 12 megatrends and how five paradoxical mindsets are necessary to achieving high performance and effective decision making in this new era of business. From ambitious appreciation to political virtue, humble confidence, and responsible daring, you'll discover how to develop and expand your leadership identity. Whilst being heavily based in research, this revolutionary approach takes a practical look at the day-to-day realities of leading in business, offering fresh insight into how to tackle tough decisions, change behaviour, and evolve habits to become future-fit and thrive in a modern environment. The author shows you how to: * Weave together multiple, seemingly contradictory, mindsets to enhance decision making and day-to-day leadership * Adapt to the megatrends that are driving much of the change we see throughout the world * Shake up the thinking, habits, and behaviours that are holding you back from unleashing your full potential as a leader An indispensable roadmap to leading modern organisations, Ruthlessly Caring is a must-read for c-suite executives, directors, senior managers, and aspiring business leaders who hope to perform well in their role and get the best out of themselves and the people they lead.
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Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2023
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Table of Contents
COVER
TITLE PAGE
COPYRIGHT
DEDICATION
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
PREFACE
CHAPTER 1: MEGATRENDS THAT ARE RESHAPING THE WORLD
The Megatrends Shaping the Current and Future Leadership Context
A Washing-Machine Effect: Interactions and Tensions
Paradoxes Are Endemic in the Megatrend Context
Becoming Future-Fit: A Paradoxical Environment Calls for a Paradoxical Leader
Notes
CHAPTER 2: THE FIVE PARADOXICAL MINDSETS OFFUTURE-FIT LEADERSHIP
The Five Mindsets: High-Level Summary
What Exactly Is a Paradox?
Embracing Paradoxes: Why Bother?
What Makes Paradoxical Thinking So Difficult?
Paradoxical Thinking: Preferences and Pendulums
Unfreezing Your Leadership Identity: Old Habits and Current Assumptions
Building Self-Awareness
Notes
CHAPTER 3: RUTHLESSLY CARING
What Is a ‘Ruthlessly Caring’ Mindset?
Why Embracing a ‘Ruthlessly Caring’ Mindset Matters Amidst the Megatrends
Leading Ruthlessly: Making Tough Performance-Focused Decisions
The Ruthless Leadership Continuum: How to Stay on Track
Leading with Care: Staying Compassionate No Matter What
The Caring Leadership Continuum: How to Stay on Track
Notes
CHAPTER 4: AMBITIOUSLY APPRECIATIVE
What Is an ‘Ambitiously Appreciative’ Mindset?
Why Being Ambitiously Appreciative Matters Amidst Megatrends
Leading Ambitiously: The Relentless Drive to Achieve
Developing Harmonious Passion
The Ambitious Leadership Continuum: How to Stay on Track
Leading with Appreciation: Keeping Goals and Work in Perspective
Learning to Appreciate What You Have
Getting a Sense of Perspective
The Appreciative Leadership Continuum: How to Stay on Track
Notes
CHAPTER 5: POLITICALLY VIRTUOUS
What Is a ‘Politically Virtuous’ Mindset?
Why a Politically Virtuous Mindset Matters Amidst the Megatrends
Leading Politically: Being Savvy in the Circumstances
The Five Key Ingredients of Politically Savvy Leadership
The Political Leadership Continuum: How to Stay on Track
Leading Virtuously: Doing ‘the Right Thing’ at the First Opportunity
1. Identifying Ethical Issues Early On
2. Acting with Moral Courage
The Virtuous Leadership Continuum: How to Stay on Track
Notes
CHAPTER 6: CONFIDENTLY HUMBLE
What Is a ‘Confidently Humble’ Mindset?
Why Confidence and Humility Matter Amidst the Megatrends
Leading Confidently: Trusting Yourself and Inspiring Others to Trust You
Three Confidence Habits to Get Into
The Confident Leadership Continuum: How to Stay on Track
Leading with Humility: Harnessing the Knowledge and Skills of Those Around You
How to Develop Intellectual Humility
The Humble Leadership Continuum: How to Stay on Track
Notes
CHAPTER 7: RESPONSIBLY DARING
What Is a ‘Responsibly Daring’ Mindset?
Why Leading in a Responsibly Daring Way Matters Amidst the Megatrends
Leading Responsibly: Making a Difference and Safeguarding the Organisation
The Responsible Leader Continuum: How to Stay on Track
Leading Daringly: Being Willing to Take Risks and Push Boundaries
The Five Ingredients of a Daring Mindset
The Daring Leadership Continuum: How to Stay on Track
Notes
CHAPTER 8: DEVELOPING AND EXPANDING YOUR LEADERSHIP IDENTITY
Why Identity Is Important in Relation to Paradoxical Mindsets
What Identity Refers To
The Troublesome Myth of ‘True Self’
The Ability to Integrate Multiple Identities Is a Predictor of Leadership Success
Identity Is Not Fixed, but Continuously Created, Shaped, and Spotlighted
Narratives: How Identity Is Built Through the Stories We Tell
Quick Recap
Embracing All Five Mindsets: How to Develop and Expand Your Leadership Identity
Concluding Remarks: The Challenge of Being Adaptably Authentic
Notes
INDEX
END USER LICENSE AGREEMENT
List of Tables
Chapter 2
Table 2.1 The five paradoxical mindsets: core tension and key behaviours.
List of Illustrations
Chapter 1
Figure 1.1 The 12 megatrends shaping the current and future leadership conte...
Figure 1.2 The ‘washing-machine effect’ created by megatrends accelerating a...
Chapter 2
Figure 2.1 A false interpretation of a paradoxical mindset (‘confidently hum...
Figure 2.2 Each paradoxical mindset contains two distinct yet connected elem...
Figure 2.3 How identity bucketing can lead to polarised perceptions.
Chapter 3
Figure 3.1 The ruthless leadership continuum.
Figure 3.2 The caring leadership continuum.
Chapter 4
Figure 4.1 The ambitious leadership continuum.
Figure 4.2 The appreciative leadership continuum.
Chapter 5
Figure 5.1 The political leadership continuum.
Figure 5.2 The virtuous leadership continuum.
Chapter 6
Figure 6.1 The confident leader continuum.
Figure 6.2 The humble leadership continuum.
Chapter 7
Figure 7.1 The responsible continuum.
Figure 7.2 The daring leadership continuum.
Chapter 8
Figure 8.1 How identity continuously evolves.
Guide
Cover
Title Page
Copyright
Dedication
Acknowledgements
Preface
Table of Contents
Begin Reading
Index
End User License Agreement
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RUTHLESSLY CARING
AND OTHER PARADOXICAL MINDSETS LEADERS NEED TO BE FUTURE-FIT
BY AMY WALTERS COHEN
This edition first published 2023
© 2023 Amy Walters Cohen
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, except as permitted by law. Advice on how to obtain permission to reuse material from this title is available at http://www.wiley.com/go/permissions.
The right of Amy Walters Cohen to be identified as the author of this work has been asserted in accordance with law.
Registered Offices
John Wiley & Sons Ltd, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex, PO19 8SQ, UK
John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, USA
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Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of WarrantyWhile the publisher and authors have used their best efforts in preparing this work, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this work and specifically disclaim all warranties, including without limitation any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives, written sales materials or promotional statements for this work. The fact that an organization, website, or product is referred to in this work as a citation and/or potential source of further information does not mean that the publisher and authors endorse the information or services the organization, website, or product may provide or recommendations it may make. This work is sold with the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering professional services. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a specialist where appropriate. Further, readers should be aware that websites listed in this work may have changed or disappeared between when this work was written and when it is read. Neither the publisher nor authors shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Names: Walters, Amy, author.
Title: Ruthlessly caring : and other paradoxical mindsets leaders need to be future-fit / by Amy Walters.
Description: First edition. | Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2023. | Includes index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2022056917 (print) | LCCN 2022056918 (ebook) | ISBN 9781394177172 (cloth) | ISBN 9781394187058 (adobe pdf) | ISBN 9781394187041 (epub)
Subjects: LCSH: Leadership—Forecasting. | Management—Technological innovations.
Classification: LCC HD57.7 .W355 2023 (print) | LCC HD57.7 (ebook) | DDC 658.4/092—dc23/eng/20221202
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2022056917
LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2022056918
Cover Design: Wiley
To my family and friends, for all your love, laughter, and support.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Many thanks go to all those who helped and encouraged me in the writing of this book.
With special thanks to Dominic Mahony, Kate Bamford, and Thomas Hacker.
PREFACE
This book will not make leadership easy, but it will help you evolve and expand your thinking. Consequently, if you are looking for a simple paint-by-numbers guide to leadership, this is not it.
Leading a business is hard and involves grappling with numerous conflicting demands, tackling unprecedented challenges, and making tough decisions. Especially in today's environment, where megatrends such as advancing technology, climate change, rising inequality, and hyper-connection via social media are converging, across all industries, leaders are finding themselves operating on shifting sands. Required to carve out success in a landscape that is constantly changing and highly complex.
This book tackles the reality of senior leadership and explores the mindsets and skills that determine high performance in today's context.
Specifically, whilst the title highlights the ‘ruthlessly caring’ mindset, there are in fact five paradoxical mindsets leaders need to thrive in today's business landscape:
ruthlessly caring
ambitiously appreciative
politically virtuous
confidently humble
responsibly daring.
These mindsets originated from interviews with award-winning leaders from around the world, who had been recognised for their future-thinking, innovation, and disruption. Following this, two years of research was carried out to dig deep into what underpins each mindset and how to develop it. This research also explored the nature of paradoxes and leadership identity.
While being heavily based in research (with evolutionary, occupational and neuropsychology woven in throughout), the book (hopefully!) avoids being overly academic, theoretical, or jargony. It aims to be practical and action orientated, synthesising what is most useful to know and staying focused on the ‘what’ and ‘how’ – what you need to do differently and how to do it.
In the spirit of staying practical, alongside the insights from research, there are numerous ‘leader-to-leader’ stories throughout the book. These were gathered via first-hand interviews and aim to bring key concepts and ideas to life with real-world examples. Each leader interviewed was candid in their advice and support, and it is hoped this will help others in senior leadership positions feel they are not alone, as well as spark fresh conversations and idea-sharing across leadership groups and networks. Essentially, these ‘leader-to-leader’ stories offer up practical wisdom – top tips and ‘lessons learnt the hard way’ – providing something of a learning fast-track, by enabling you to draw on a greater bank of experiences, maximising your own ability to exercise judgement and wisdom at critical moments.
It is worth emphasising that no leader mentioned in the book is being held up as perfect. None of the leaders interviewed in the initial research had perfectly mastered all five paradoxical mindsets. Not all the leaders cited as examples in text via second-hand sources have a ‘perfect-10’ track record of behaviour or performance. Similarly, the leaders interviewed for the ‘leader-to-leader’ stories would be the first to say there are still areas they are working on and are keen to develop. This is not a catalogue of leaders who are perfect and over-the-finish-line of development. It is a collation of leaders who have different strengths and development areas and who are on their own journey with it. This book is therefore not about helping you on a quest to be perfect – it aims to help you on a quest to keep developing, unlearning, and relearning, so you can adapt effectively to the context you are in and the challenges you will face, now and in the years to come.
Finally, whilst many people in the corporate world talk about ‘future-proofing’ – this book instead refers to leaders becoming ‘future-fit’. The notion of ‘future-proof’ suggests building up a protective shield against the future. It suggests installing something fixed and durable against all elements, whatever comes. This is an unhelpful mindset to have. The future is not something to be guarded against, tomorrow will come, circumstances will change, and events can be influenced. The last thing leaders need is to be ‘proofed’ against the future. What they need is to be fit and well-matched to the context they are in and adaptable to changing conditions.
Other key points to flag to you as a reader:
This book is best nibbled and digested slowly (after
Chapters 1
and
2
, go straight for the chapters that appeal the most).
Like a buffet of evidence and brain food, there's a lot in here and it will be hard to digest in one go. Read
Chapters 1
and
2
. But then, after that, do not feel the need to work through
Chapters 3
–
7
diligently in a linear way. Go straight to the mindset which looks most appealing to you. Tuck in. Digest. Come back later to explore something else.
Read the last chapter.
Implementing these paradoxes into your day-to-day world requires identity-level change. The final chapter discusses identity in detail so do not miss it out. Understanding how to expand your identity is critical if you want to embrace all five paradoxical mindsets and enhance your leadership performance.
Be critical. Feel free to violently disagree or agree, add in your own ideas and thinking
– these are ideas based on interviews with leaders and research into the topics of megatrends, paradoxes, identity, and each of the mindsets. Not all concepts are new (that would be bizarre and worrying), it is an evidence-based proposal that aims to add to existing knowledge and ideas. It can and should be challenged, discussed, added to, reviewed; it is a contribution to what is known about leadership, not a conclusion. It is a synthesis and proposal to spark further thoughts and prompt an evolution in leadership practice.
CHAPTER 1MEGATRENDS THAT ARE RESHAPING THE WORLD
Your assumptions are your windows on the world. Scrub them off every once in a while, or the light won't come in.
—Isaac Asimov, writer and professor of biochemistry
There are certain periods and moments throughout history where significant change and trends have occurred, yet leaders failed to respond to them prior to their impact – often caught out by continuing to think and operate in outdated ways.
Take World War I, for example – the course of events had started to be shaped over 160 years earlier, as the first Industrial Revolution got underway.
In response to the need to find efficient ways to scale production, British manufacturers invented game-changing technologies, such as steam locomotives for army transport, ironclad steam-powered warships, and cast-iron cannons. Enabled by advancements in metal-shaping precision, the United States, Germany, and France brought in the first machine guns and rapid-fire rifles.
These technological changes disrupted the business-as-usual routines in militaries across the world. However, many leaders failed to shift their thinking and approach and were slow to respond even when the stark new reality of war was brutally apparent. The French army, for example, was still using the same drill formations and colourful uniforms as they had been 100 years previously, but now they were sending their troops to face machine guns in those bright blue coats, red trousers, and plumed helmets: a tragic case of leaders failing to adapt to the times they were in.1,2
History is also littered with examples of business leaders who failed to evolve their thinking and keep pace with the trends occurring. Take America's so-called ‘retail apocalypse’ as an example. In 2017, the overall disposable income in America rose along with an increase in consumer spending, and yet many prominent retailers found themselves in trouble. By April 2017, already the number of bankruptcies had nearly surpassed the entire total of the previous year.3
Whilst the media's use of the term ‘apocalypse’ was not without controversy, there is no doubt that many retailers were (and continue to be) hit hard by a fast-changing landscape.4 The rise in online shopping, shifts towards experiential consumer spending (i.e., restaurants and travel over material possessions), and an oversupply of malls changed the game for brick-and-mortar retail stores. But, many leaders missed the defining issue of the day: shopper experience.5 They did not realise they needed to switch from a transaction mindset focused on, ‘how do we sell more stuff?’ to a value-creation mindset exploring, ‘how do we create value beyond the transaction?’6 This mismatch between context and thinking led to several years of industry devastation, and in 2019, American retail store closures due to bankruptcy reached a new record high.
Why is this relevant to you? Because the business rulebook is being rewritten. The context in which senior leaders are operating has fundamentally altered, and a significant recalibration of thinking is required.
Of course, there have always been turning-point moments where specific industries were disrupted, with leaders forced to evolve their approach or risk going under. But what is different today is the scale, speed, and complexity of the change occurring in the business world. At least 12 megatrends are interacting and redefining ‘the way the business world works’, as a whole, not piece by piece. Every industry is being disrupted as numerous trends converge.
Alongside these trends, company life expectancy is shrinking, with sustained high performance becoming ever more elusive. Specifically, there is a long-term trend of declining corporate longevity, with the average lifespan of a company on the Standard and Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500) currently at 20 years, having reduced from 36 years in 1980, and forecast to shorten further to 16 years throughout the 2020s.7 Credit Suisse reviewed the reasons for company removal from the S&P 500 Index, between 2000 and 2016, and found 52% of these removals were a result of merger and acquisition activity and 32% were due to business failure.8 Consequently, while some of this shortened performance lifespan can be accounted for by M&A activity, a third cannot. It is also clear that younger companies are outperforming long-standing companies, indicating that leaders are finding it increasingly difficult to sustain high performance in the long term and keep well-established organisations successful.
To sustain high performance in today's megatrends environment, leaders must challenge their entrenched assumptions and embrace new ways of thinking. As survey results show, 60% of C-suite leaders report that these mega trends require them to think and act differently,9 with 79% of C-suite leaders agreeing that senior leaders throughout their organisation will need to adopt a different set of mindsets for their business to succeed in the future.
The key message here is that leaders cannot tackle new challenges with old thinking and outdated approaches: the game has changed. A new form of leadership will be required to take on the scale, speed, and complexity of changes occurring. A fundamental shift in thinking and decision-making is called for.
Before we dig into how leadership thinking needs to evolve to match the context that leaders are facing, let us first explore the drivers of change: the megatrends.
The Megatrends Shaping the Current and Future Leadership Context
Megatrends are major patterns or directions of development that occur at a global scale. They are the driving forces that define the world today and shape the world of tomorrow. They permeate all sectors and impact all types of organisations.
As shown in Figure 1.1, reports and forecasting data from businesses, governments, and think tanks collectively show how at least 12 megatrends are shaping the current and future landscape. Therefore if you wish to be aligned with the times you are in, lead in a way that is ‘future-fit’, and safeguard the future of your organisation, these are the global trends you need to be aware of and actively consider.
Let us look at each megatrend in more detail:
Technological Changes
Advances in technology and biological science.
Technology is advancing in multiple directions at great speed.10 For years, there has been rapid innovation and progress across many areas of technology; for example, in physical technology (e.g., with autonomous vehicles, drones, 4D printing, and robotics) and digital technology (e.g., with the Internet of Things, edge computing, 5G, digital twins, digital platforms, digitally extended realities, blockchain, and distributed ledgers).
Figure 1.1 The 12 megatrends shaping the current and future leadership context.
Similarly, in fields like material technology, 2D materials (namely, graphene and borophene) have sparked huge excitement and investment over recent years. Specifically, these new monoatomic materials are super-strong, flexible, have extraordinary heat conductance, and conduct electricity a thousand times better than copper. They have the potential to fully charge an electric car in minutes, unlock clean drinking water for millions, improve health testing, and create a new generation of electronics.11,12
Meanwhile, already artificial intelligence is all around us in various forms, and, with the advances in quantum computing, 5G connectivity, and precision sensors, much progress is anticipated in the next decade around human augmentation (where technology enhances our human capabilities, either permanently or temporarily).13
Significant advancements are also being made in the field of biological science, with the past decade seeing a growing wave of innovation in synthetic biology and microbiology. For example, microbiome advances (‘microbiomes’ being the communities of bacteria, fungi, viruses, and their genes that naturally live on and in our bodies) are expected to influence innovation of nearly every industry, with microbiome applications unlocking a wealth of new products, services, and operational approaches to tackling key challenges like climate disruption, chronic diseases, and urban pollution.13 As Steve Jobs put it, ‘the biggest innovations in the 21st century will be at the intersection of biology and technology. A new era is beginning’.14
Leadership implications: The pace of technological advancement is hard to comprehend. The impact of all the innovation occurring in different sectors is nearly impossible to anticipate. What is clear is that no organisation is exempt: leaders must stay alert to change and drive ongoing transformation to survive and stay relevant. Whether it is staying ahead of the market and harnessing new technologies or keeping up with market disruptions and protecting their business against the emerging risks that technologies present, no business is immune.
It is also critical for leaders to remember that, even though technological advancements are driving change, investing in the right technologies is only part of the challenge. People (i.e., human emotions, responses, and behaviours) remain the determining factor in whether a transformation is successful.15
Big data and the rise of the behavioural economy.
Like the size of the solar system, the exponential growth of data is difficult to get your head around. Every year, over 94 zettabytes of data is created, captured, copied, and consumed.16 Every day, 319.6 billion emails are sent and over 28 petabytes of data is generated by wearable devices.17,18 Every minute, close to 42 million WhatsApp messages are exchanged.19 And, this is just a snapshot. The amount of data in existence is skyrocketing and it has frequently been said that the world's most valuable resource is no longer oil but data. But it is the insight into human behaviour that holds real value.
By harvesting and analysing the wealth of data generated about our lives, organisations can now understand and shape behaviour like never before, using increasingly precise and sophisticated tactics of persuasion. There is increasing awareness that if something is free or low-cost, as a user, you and your data are the product they are selling. But it still does not stop us entering our details or clicking ‘accept all’ when asked to ‘allow cookies’. As a megatrend report published by EY stated:13 ‘we unwittingly reveal more about our desires and fears to search engines than to our families or friends. Our phones and social media platforms have more data about our behaviours, preferences, and states of mind than we may realize’.
Leadership implications. While the advancement of behavioural economics (the study of the factors influencing human decision-making) can be a force for good, with governments and organisations using the insight positively to help people lead healthier lives and make more planet-friendly choices, the potential to exploit data is also very real. As we enter an era where the datasphere is growing and behavioural insight is the most valuable commodity, both individuals and leaders will need to tread carefully.
Hyper-connectivity through social media.
Current figures show 58.4% of the world's population now uses social media,20 with the average user spending 2 hours 26 minutes on social networks per day.21 While the percentage of the population using social media is steadily increasing (by an average of 10.1% year-on-year), the time spent appears to have plateaued (averaging 2 hours 22 minutes for the past five years).20
Social media is still predominantly about connecting with friends, family, and communities across the world; however, for a while now, these platforms have not just been a place to connect but a key source of news. For example, a survey by Pew Research Centre showed how 48% of adults in America get their news from social media ‘often’ or ‘sometimes’.22Similarly in the United Kingdom, reports from Ofcom show how, while TV is still the most-used platform for news, 49% of adults also use social media as a key news source.23
News via social media is unquestionably quick and easy, but there is a catch. A study by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) revealed how false news spreads more rapidly on social media than real news – by a considerable margin.24 The MIT researchers analysed data sets from the social network Twitter and found that false news stories are 70% more likely than true news stories to be retweeted. Furthermore, it takes true stories six times longer to reach 1,500 people as it does for false stories to reach the same number of people.
Combine this with the fact ‘deepfakes’ are getting harder and harder to spot, as AI algorithms are able to fabricate increasingly realistic audio, video, and text-based content – content depicting events that never happened and showing people doing and saying things they never did or said. This exemplifies the notion that we are now in a ‘Post-Truth’ era, where facts are less influential in shaping public opinion than appeals to emotion and personal belief. ‘Alternative facts’ can be created, with almost anything ‘becoming true’ and spreading rapidly through social media – whether it is correct or not.
Leadership implications. At a societal level, the impact of hyper-connectivity through social media is a very mixed bag of blessings and concerns. On the one hand, this connectivity helps us as a society to learn, fight crime, help others in our community, and raise awareness of important issues. But it also amplifies inequalities, keeps us addicted to our phones, leaves us vulnerable to misinformation, polarises views, and has been correlated with increased depression and suicidal behaviour.13,25,26
At a leadership level, social media also has power to both destroy and build a brand (or career). The fact that images, news, and information (including misinformation and disinformation) can spread like wildfire through social media, reaching a global audience in seconds, means leaders and their organisations are more exposed than ever.27 One fake story, one photo, one lapse in judgment – and profits can slump dramatically overnight, with calls for resignations being made. In today's hyper-connected age, the reputational risk is huge and the option of being able to ‘brush a bad decision under the carpet’ is no more.
Demographic Changes
Ageing populations and multigenerational workforces.
The age structure of our society is steadily shifting. In 1950, the median age was a sprightly 23 (i.e., half of the population was younger than 23, half was older). Today, the median age is 30 and by the end of the century, it has been forecast to have risen to 42.28 Factors such as wars and epidemics will continue to cause fluctuations, but as a species, we tend to live longer.
Young people are also having fewer children, with global fertility rates gradually declining.29
Increasing life expectancy mixed with declining birth rates means many countries now have an ageing population, with a growing number of citizens over the age of 65 and a gradually shrinking number of people in the traditional working-age pool (i.e., aged between 25 and 64 years). For example, projections indicate that by 2050, one in every four persons in Europe and Northern America could be aged 65 years or over.29
Leadership implications. Amongst the implications of this for healthcare systems, urban planning, and the ‘grey pound’ market, this shift in demographics also means the workforce is more age-diverse than ever before. For the first time in human history, many organisations already have five different generations working side by side. Workforce demands and career patterns are changing, and talent attraction, development, and retention strategies will need to keep pace.
Global skills gap and competition for talent.
Global talent shortages are the highest they have been in over a decade, with 75% of employers reporting difficultly in filling roles (rising from 31% reporting difficulty in 2010).30 By 2030, studies have predicted that there will be a global talent shortage of more than 85 million people (roughly equivalent to the population of Germany).31
Aside from the human cost, in terms of unemployment levels remaining high while workforce participation stagnates, such shortages impair productivity and hamstring businesses from innovating and evolving in the way they need in order to stay effective and relevant. Financially, it is also likely to cost nations trillions of dollars in unrealised annual revenues.31
What is going on is a growing mismatch between the types of skills employers need and number of individuals with these skills in the talent pool; demand is outstripping supply. Part of the reason for this is shifting demographics, with low birth rates and ageing populations shrinking the size of the working-age talent pool in many countries. However, the main cause is the pace of change being driven by the application and integration of new technologies (such as AI, machine learning, robotics, and automation).
These advancements are changing the nature of work and creating a highly dynamic skills landscape, with many roles becoming obsolete and many more new roles and skills becoming needed.32 As statistics show, 1 in 3 jobs are likely to change radically as individual tasks are automated and adoption of technology increases.33 Furthermore, 40% of HR leaders report that they cannot devise skill development solutions fast enough to meet evolving skill needs.34
Leadership implications. Across all sectors, effective talent management is quickly becoming a number one priority for senior leaders.34 Specifically, leaders are having to review how they can identify the critical ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ skills they need, optimise the talent already in the business (via upskilling, reskilling, rotations, and redeployments), acquire and outsource talent as necessary, enhance their employee experience, and create a culture of continuous learning within their organisation.
Environmental Changes
Climate change and scarcity of resources.
Climate change is already affecting every region on Earth in multiple ways, causing intense droughts, heatwaves, water scarcity, wildfires, coastal flooding, catastrophic storms, food insecurity, and declining biodiversity. Climate-driven change is also happening much faster than initially thought, with satellite data showing how the Himalayan glaciers that supply water to 800 million people in South Asia are melting twice as fast as previous estimates suggested,35 and that 300 million people worldwide (not 120 million as first thought) will be subject to coastal flooding by 2050 due to sea-level rise.36
To put climate change in context, throughout history, changes in Earth's orbit around the sun (referred to as Milankovitch cycles) have shifted greenhouse gas concentrations and caused global temperatures to fluctuate between ice ages (low CO2) and interglacials (high CO2). But before the Industrial Revolution, atmospheric concentrations of CO2 during these interglacial CO2 highs had not exceeded 300 parts per million (ppm). Today, global CO2 concentrations are well above 400 ppm, having risen rapidly over the past few centuries and in recent decades.37 Global temperatures have, in turn, increased to 0.87°C (rising from −0.52°C in 1904). This 1.28°C temperature shift may not sound like a lot, but it is steep in planetary terms and enough to disrupt natural systems significantly.
The influence of human activity is undisputed, and scientists have flagged that a global temperature rise of 1.5°C (above the pre-industrial level of -0.52°C) is the indicator point at which climate impacts will become increasingly harmful for humans and other species on the planet. There is now a 50:50 chance of the annual global temperature temporarily reaching that point for at least one of the next five years.38
Theoretically, it is still possible to limit the global warming increase to 1.5°C, but realistically that target is now out of reach (without unprecedented, drastic, and immediate action). In line with the Paris Agreement, leaders and nations need to pursue all efforts to restrict warming to below 2°C. Several tipping points may be triggered in a range of 1.5 to <2°C global warming (such as the collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets and die-off of low-latitude coral reefs), but more are likely at 2–3°C of warming.39
However, implementing all the climate and energy policies currently in place will not be enough; they put us on track for warming of 2.5–2.9°C by 2100.37 While the timelines seem long, it is action now that is critical, as various tipping points will lead to cascading and irreversible consequences.40 There are options available in every sector that can reduce emissions between 40–70% by 2050, but immediate and audacious action is needed now to keep the below 2°C threshold within reach.41 Specifically, reducing greenhouse gas emissions requires particular focus on two fundamental areas: decarbonisation of energy systems and reducing emissions from food production and food waste.37
This challenge is compounded by the fact that the global population is still increasing, and it is estimated to grow to around 8.5 billion by 2030 and reach 9.7 billion in 2050.29 That is an extra 2 billion people (or, put another way, another India and China) and as populations and economies grow, demand for natural resources (including energy, food, and water) will continue to increase. Pair this trend, not only with climate change but the fact that we are already using 70% more resources than the Earth can replenish each year, and it can be clearly seen that we are heading towards an ‘ecological credit crunch’.42
Leadership implications. Awareness of these issues is not new and progress is being made, but it is not happening fast enough or at the scale required to prevent the most severe effects from being unleashed. Actions from individuals, organisations, and governments can still make a difference to the future. But business leaders must lead the way, delivering on pledges to decarbonise their business models and entire value chains (where possible aiming to be carbon-negative, not just carbon-neutral) and taking bold, targeted action to drive the immense change needed to tackle the climate crisis and resource scarcity challenges.
Urbanisation.
By 2030, it is estimated that 60% of the world's population will be living in cities.43 The increase in urban living is forecast to be heavily concentrated in India, China, and Nigeria, but across the world, there will be a rise in the number and power of ‘megacities’ (i.e., cities with more than 10 million inhabitants),44 with reports showing how some cities already out-power countries in terms of GDP.45
During the COVID-19 pandemic, the trend of urbanisation stalled somewhat, with many fleeing city life in favour of more remote locations. However, reports from the United Nations indicate this city exodus was only a temporary stalling, with the global urban population still on track to grow by another 2.2 billion people in the next 30 years.46
On the one hand, urban growth brings investment wealth, employment, and education opportunities, but it also presents numerous challenges around housing, sanitation, energy demand, air pollution, overcrowding, urban poverty, and traffic congestion. Consequently, there is a strong drive towards sustainable urbanisation – i.e., urban design and planning, which does not exacerbate inequalities but instead enables economic opportunities for all, reduces greenhouse gas emissions, protects people's well-being, and ensures urbanisation occurs in harmony with rural development.46,47
Leadership implications. Urbanisation not only has implications for business leaders in terms of office location and design but presents numerous opportunities for those organisations that can respond to the requirements of sustainable urbanisation.
There are also implications of this trend for leaders to consider around people's well-being. Many research studies document the benefits of nature on well-being,48 with specific benefits including enhanced social interactions,49 improved manageability of life tasks,50 better memory and attention,51 as well as increased imagination and creativity.52 However, with rapid urbanisation, never will so many people be so far removed from the natural world. To enhance well-being and performance, leaders may therefore increasingly need to consider how they can help their workforce reap the benefits that connection to nature provides.
Economic Shifts
Shifting economic powers.
The world's economic centre has long been drifting across from North America and Europe over to Asia. By 2030, reports forecast that China will have overtaken the United States as the world's largest economy (on all accounts, including GDP, population size, technological investment, and military spending); however, how long China will sustain this economic lead is a matter of intense debate.53
By 2040, the economic power of E7 (China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, and Turkey) could be double the size of that of G7 (the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Japan, Canada, and Italy), from being the same size in 2015 and half the size in 1995,54 with fast-ageing economic heavyweights gradually losing ground on the global GDP table to countries with younger populations (*Note: the ‘E7’ is not actually a forum or alliance, like the G7, but merely an economic concept).
Vietnam and the Philippines are also expected to experience the greatest improvement in their GDP rankings. Vietnam, for example, was one of only a few countries to post GDP growth in 2020 when the pandemic hit, with growth slowing to 2.58% in 2021 (due to the emergence of the Delta variant) but then rebounding to above 5.5% in 2022.55
Meanwhile, Africa is a continent set to become a larger player in the future global economy, with the combination of technological connectivity, global trade, and continued growth in working-age population creating the potential to supercharge productivity and leapfrog traditional models of linear growth.56
Leadership implications. To effectively navigate this gradually shifting balance in the global economy, business leaders will need to pay even closer attention to trade patterns, policies, and shifting global value chains. Multinational organisations will also face a new breed of competitors from emerging countries looking to establish their place on the global stage.
Growing numbers of disruptive start-ups.
With advances in technology lowering traditional barriers to market entry, flood gates have opened in terms of start-ups being able to quickly enter and disrupt well-established industries. Often without ‘owning’ or ‘providing’ very much in the traditional sense, it is possible for start-ups to leverage technology, connect suppliers directly with consumers, and fundamentally change consumer behaviour (for example, in payments, transportation, delivery, and health).
A few years back, this sparked the emergence of the so-called ‘unicorn companies’: privately owned start-up companies valued at or over $1 billion. Venture capitalist Aileen Lee coined the term ‘unicorn’ to represent the statistical rarity of such successful ventures, and these companies were hailed as impressive outliers.57 Today, however, ‘unicorns’ are no longer rare but plentiful. Research shows that at the start of 2016, there were 165 unicorns, and by mid-2021, there were 743, an increase of 350% in 5.6 years.58 Current figures show there are over 1,100 ‘unicorn’ companies, mostly in China and the United States but with an increasing number emerging in India. Now there are also ‘decacorn companies’, private start-ups valued at or over $10 billion, and even a few ‘hectocorns’, start-ups valued at over $100 billion.
Leadership implications. Whether from start-ups, supply chains, or geopolitical tension, disruption is commonplace in today's business landscape, with 87% of board members reporting market disruptions to have become increasingly frequent and 83% reporting disruptions to have become increasingly impactful.59 Pressure is mounting on leaders to keep successfully transforming their business and do so continuously in the face of disruption; the ability to reinvent and innovate becoming ever more important. Organisations cannot afford to wait for others to disrupt them, they must disrupt themselves. To keep continuously transforming in this way, leaders need to ensure their workforce is highly adaptable and skilled at embracing and implementing change, and, that their organisation’s culture encourages continuous learning, improvement, and experimentation. In addition, leaders and individuals throughout the organisation will need to should be hyper-vigilant to the changes, threats, and opportunities arising in the market.
Societal Changes
Increasing and high levels of inequality.
Over the past two decades, global inequalities between countries have declined, but income inequality within most countries has increased, with the income gap between the top 10% and bottom 50% of individuals within countries almost doubling across that time frame. Specifically, the latest World Inequality Report60 highlights how the richest 10% of the global population currently take home 52% of the income, whilst the poorer half of the global population earn just 8%. This gap widens even further when you look at wealth (i.e., the valuable assets and items owned over and above income). In terms of wealth, 50% of the global population owns just 2% of the global total, while the richest 10% owns 76% of all wealth, with the very top 1% owning 38% of total wealth.61
Many existing inequalities were also exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic; for example, research in the UK highlighted how the pandemic disproportionately impacted those with less money, fewer resources, lower levels of qualifications, women, and people from minoritised racial and ethnic groups.61,62,63
Similarly, when it comes to climate change, the most vulnerable communities in society will be hit first and worst by its effects (despite having done the least to cause the damage). Social media, whilst sometimes a force for good in terms of raising awareness, also exacerbates inequality tensions by providing a platform for the very wealthy to promote their lavish lifestyles. Unsurprisingly, frustration is bubbling at the unfairness within current economic and social systems which, in various ways, operate on the premise that ‘the more you have, the more I give you’.64
However, despite high and increasing levels of inequality being a persistent challenge in nearly all countries, it is getting harder and harder for governments to tackle issues (such as economic inequality) because while private wealth has risen, public wealth has sunk (in most cases to negative or close to zero).60 Businesses leaders consequently have a critical role to play in forging new systems.
Leadership implications. Organisations must step up to tackle all forms of inequality, with leaders identifying and addressing the systemic barriers and helping to create a more equitable system for low-income groups and marginalised communities. Amongst other actions, this includes making life-enhancing products and services affordable and accessible to all, providing opportunities for decent employment, driving progress and tangible action in relation to diversity and belonging, distributing value more equitably throughout supply chains, and broadening participation in governance and ownership.65
Evolving workforce and customer expectations.
Expectations on business and business leaders are shifting substantially in numerous ways. For example, when it comes to customer service, trends like advancing technology and hyper-connectivity have led people to expect an immediate ‘always-on’ service, with 83% of customers expecting to interact with someone immediately when they contact a company.66
Furthermore, given the amount of data available and number of AI algorithms often working in the background, consumers and employees alike are expecting an increasingly streamlined and personalised experience. For example, 71% of consumers expect companies to deliver personalised interactions, and 67% get frustrated when this does not happen;67 similarly, employees want development experiences that are tailored for them, with over 75% of learners valuing personalised course recommendations that are based on their own career goals and specific skills gaps.68
There has also been a dramatic shift since the pandemic in terms of employee expectations around flexible working, with 80% of employees wanting to work at least two days remotely per week and 85% of people who are currently on a hybrid work model wanting to continue with this model in future.69,70
Swelling awareness around global challenges (such as climate change) also means both consumers and employees are expecting more from organisations and their leaders in terms of positive social action and sustainability. Specifically:
86% of people expect CEOs to publicly speak out on societal challenges
62
66% agree CEOs should take the lead on change rather than wait for governments to impose change on them
62
74% of customers say a company's sustainability practices matter more now than a year ago
71
67% of people have a strong expectation that their employer has a greater purpose and will provide a job that has a meaningful impact on society (with 25% stating they just would never work for a company that does not offer this greater purpose and societal impact).
57
