Spacecraft Reliability and Multi-State Failures E-Book

Joseph Homer Saleh

• Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
• Kategorie: Fachliteratur
• Sprache: Englisch

Seitenzahl: 262

Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2011

Beschreibung

SPACECRAFT RELIABILITY AND MULTI-STATE FAILURES ] SPACECRAFT RELIABILITY AND MULTI-STATE FAILURES A STATISTICAL APPROACH The aerospace community has long recognized and repeatedly emphasizes the importance of reliability for space systems. Despite this, little has been published in book form on the topic. Spacecraft Reliability and Multi-State Failures addresses this gap in the literature, offering a unique focus on spacecraft reliability based on extensive statistical analysis of system and subsystem anomalies and failures. The authors provide new results pertaining to spacecraft reliability based on extensive statistical analysis of on-orbit anomaly and failure data that will be particularly useful to spacecraft manufacturers and designers, for example in guiding satellite (and subsystem) test and screening programs and providing an empirical basis for subsystem redundancy and reliability growth plans. The authors develop nonparametric results and parametric models of spacecraft and spacecraft subsystem reliability and multi-state failures, quantify the relative contribution of each subsystem to the failure of the satellites thus identifying the subsystems that drive spacecraft unreliability, and propose advanced stochastic modeling and analysis tools for the reliability and survivability of spacecraft and space-based networks. Spacecraft Reliability and Multi-State Failures * provides new nonparametric results pertaining to spacecraft reliability based on extensive statistical analysis of on-orbit anomaly and failure data * develops parametric models of spacecraft and spacecraft subsystem reliability and multi-state failures * quantifies the relative contribution of each subsystem to the failure of the satellites * proposes advanced stochastic modeling and analysis tools for the reliability and survivability of spacecraft and space-based networks * provides a dedicated treatment of the reliability and subsystem anomalies of communication spacecraft in geostationary orbit.

Leseprobe

CONTENTS

1 On time, reliability, and spacecraft

1.1 On time and reliability

1.2 On spacecraft and reliability: early studies

1.3 Book organization

2 Nonparametric reliability analysis of spacecraft failure data

2.1 Introduction

2.2 Database and data description

2.3 Nonparametric analysis of spacecraft failure data

2.4 Confidence interval analysis

2.5 Discussion and limitation

2.A Appendix

3 Parametric analysis and Weibull modeling of spacecraft reliability

3.1 Weibull distribution: an overview

3.2 Probability plots or graphical estimation

3.3 Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE)

3.4 Comparative analysis of the spacecraft reliability parametric fits

3.5 Finite mixture distributions

3.6 Comparative analysis of the single versus the mixture distribution Weibull fits

4 Data specialization: statistical analysis of spacecraft reliability by orbit and mass categories

4.1 Introduction

4.2 Data description and mass categorization

4.3 Nonparametric analysis of satellite reliability by mass category

4.4 Parametric analysis of satellite reliability by mass category

4.5 Orbit characterization

4.6 Nonparametric analysis of spacecraft reliability by mass and orbit category

4.7 Parametric analysis of satellite reliability by mass and orbit category

4.8 Hypotheses for causal explanations

4.A Appendix: Tabular data and confidence interval analysis

5 Spacecraft subsystem reliability

5.1 Spacecraft subsystem identification

5.2 Nonparametric reliability analysis of spacecraft subsystems

5.3 Weibull modeling of spacecraft subsystem reliability

5.4 Comparative analysis of subsystem failures

6 Time to anomaly and failure of spacecraft subsystems: exploratory data analysis

6.1 Introduction

6.2 Anomaly and failure events

6.3 Distribution of anomalies and failure events by subsystem

6.4 Time to anomaly and failure of spacecraft subsystems

7 Multi-state failure analysis of spacecraft subsystems

7.1 Introduction

7.2 Setting the stage: multi-state failure analysis and the state transition diagram

7.3 Nonparametric analyses of spacecraft subsystems’ multi-state failures

7.4 Parametric analyses of spacecraft subsystems’ multi-state failures

7.5 Comparative reliability and multi-state failure analysis of spacecraft subsystems

7.A Appendix

8 Toward survivability analysis of spacecraft and space-based networks

8.1 Introduction

8.2 Overview of survivability and resiliency

8.3 Survivability framework

8.4 Introduction to stochastic Petri nets (SPNs)

8.5 SPNs for spacecraft modeling and survivability analysis

A.8 Appendix: SPN model of the space-based network (SBN) in Figure 8.6 and its schematic explanation

Epilogue

Appendix A Geosynchronous communication satellites: system reliability and subsystem anomalies and failures

A.1 Part I: System reliability analysis

A.2 Part II: Subsystem anomalies and failures

Appendix B Electrical power subsystem: comparative analysis of failure events in LEO and GEO

B.1 Introduction

B.2 Database, sample analyzed, and classes of failure events

B.3 Brief literature review

B.4 Reliability and multi-state failure analyses of the EPS

B.5 Comparative analysis of the EPS failure behavior in LEO and GEO

B.6 Conclusion

References

Index

This edition first published 2011

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Saleh, Joseph Homer, 1971–

Spacecraft reliability and multi-state failures : a statistical approach / Joseph Homer Saleh, Jean-François Castet.

p. cm.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN 978-0-470-68791-8 (cloth)

1. Space vehicles—Reliability. 2. System failures (Engineering) I. Castet, Jean-Franc¸ois. II. Title.

TL885.S25 2011

629.47—dc22

2010054208

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.

Print ISBN: 978-0-470-68791-8

ePDF ISBN: 978-1-119-99406-0

obook ISBN: 978-1-119-99407-7

ePub ISBN: 978-1-119-97007-1

Mobi ISBN: 978-1-119-97008-8

Typeset in 10/12pt Times by Aptara Inc., New Delhi, India

To BB,

In loving memory of the days in Harvard Square

JHS

To my family, friends and So Young,

For their support and understanding, from both sides of the Atlantic

J-FC

1

On time, reliability, and spacecraft1

1.1 On time and reliability

Tempus edax rerum (time, devourer of all things). This exclamation by the Roman poet Ovid is meant as a reflection on the human condition and its ephemeral nature. But for an engineer, this phrase can also take a different, less profound but equally thought-provoking meaning: that things fail in time. Engineering artifacts degrade and fail in time; just how they do so, this particular aspect of their relationship with time, is the realm of reliability engineering.

1.1.1 Reliability: from the word to the engineering discipline

Reliability is a popular concept that has been celebrated for years as a commendable attribute of a person or an artifact (Saleh and Marais, 2006). The Oxford English Dictionary defines it as “the quality of being reliable, that may be relied upon; in which reliance or confidence may be put; trustworthy, safe, sure.” Although many words and expressions in the English language seem to have been coined by or attributed to Shakespeare, it seems we owe the word reliability to another English poet who, along with William Wordsworth, founded the English Romantic Movement, namely, Samuel T. Coleridge (1772–1834). The first recorded usage of the word reliability dates back to 1816. In praise of his friend the poet Robert Southey, Coleridge wrote (Coleridge, 1983; our emphasis):

He inflicts none of those small pains and discomforts which irregular men scatter about them and which in the aggregate so often become formidable obstacles both to happiness and utility; while on the contrary he bestows all the pleasures, and inspires all that ease of mind on those around him or connected with him, with perfect consistency, and (if such a word might be framed) absolute reliability.

From this modest, almost apologetic beginning in 1816, reliability grew into an omnipresent attribute – with qualitative and quantitative connotations – that pervades every aspect of the present-day technologically intensive world.