Tech Impact. The lights and shadows of technological development E-Book

Gianmarco Montanari

• Herausgeber: goWare e Edizioni Angelo Guerini e Associati
• Kategorie: Fachliteratur
• Sprache: Englisch

Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2020

Beschreibung

Macrotrend of our present: instructions for use. We live in the age of endless change. Technological innovations are profoundly and irreversibly affecting our everyday life. Progress seems somehow to subvert individual and collective parametres in such a way that often we tend to ask ourselves what we can do for machines more than what they can do for us. In these pages the author shares a participating and curious gaze to the deep changes of our times, with the ongoing tension to draw together the scattered pieces of information left by our uncertain present and to gain new keys to interpretation. From the new technologies of AI and ubiquitous computing to the growing issues of international security , from the so called Fourth Industral Revolution to the new paradigm of the sharing economy, from the role of the technological mammoths in the new world order to the changes in the labour market and the increasing societal inequality: a bunch of burning issues are here addressed both with intellectual commitment and conversational levity, with the aim to foster public debate and awareness and to help present day and future leaders to shape new policies, both at business and governamental level.

Leseprobe

Cover

Preface by Giorgio Fossa

Description

The author

Afterword by Alessandro Foti

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Table of contents

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Description

Macrotrends of our present: instructions for use

We live in the age of endless change. Technological innovations are profoundly and irreversibly affecting our everyday life. Progress seems somehow to subvert individual and collective parameters in such a way that often we tend to ask ourselves what we can do for machines more than what they can do for us.

In these pages the author shares a participating and curious gaze to the deep changes of our times, with the ongoing tension to draw together the scattered pieces of information left by our uncertain present and to gain new keys to interpretation.

From the new technologies of Al and ubiquitous computing to the growing issues of international security, from the so called Fourth Industrial Revolution to the new paradigm of the sharing economy, from the role of the technological mammoths in the new world order to the changes in the labour market and the increasing socie­tal inequalities: a bunch of burning issues are here addressed both with intellectual commitment and conversational levity, with the aim to foster public debate and awareness and to help present day and future leaders to shape new policies, both at business and governamental level.

. . .

Gianmarco Montanari, engineer and economist by training, has held senior positions in private and public companies belonging to different sectors: manufacturing, services, banking, public, research. He was and still is Board member of various public and private companies including Fineco Bank and the Agency for Digitai ltaly. Montanari is currently Director General of Istituto Italiano di Tecnologia. He holds 5 degrees and in 2017 was appointed as Ufficiale al Merito della Repubblica Italiana.

Table of contents

Cover

Title page

Copyright page

Description

Preface

Introduction

The “Certain” Value of Innovation

PART ONE MACRO TRENDS 2018-2030

Internet of Everything: IoE and IoT

The Internet of Toys

Cybercrime

New Technologies and International Security

Sharing Economy

Hybrid Consumer

New Mobility

Without frontiers: Internationalization

Environmental Issues and Climate Change

The Bitcoin case

Blockchain at the Head of the Community: Utopia Smart City

Identity and Interaction

Big Data and Machine Learning

Population Aging: Human society 2.0

Precariousness and the Polarization of Wealth

PART TWO THE FIRST THREE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTIONS

The First Industrial Revolution: The Superiority of English Technicians

The Second Industrial Revolution: from Its Spread to Transformation

The Third Industrial Revolution: A New Positivism

PART THREE THE FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION

From Mechanization to Cybernetic Systems

Industry 4.0: From the Smart Factory to the Robot Revolution

Smart factory

Robotics

Universities and Research Centers

The Age of Robots

The Future of Work

The Double Threat of Aging and Automation

Economies of Scale: The Numbers of Today’s Industries

Unemployment, a Concept that Is Anything but New

Stagnant Wages and Remuneration of Capital

Participation and New Jobs

Increasing Inequality

Salary of Graduates and the Polarization of Work

Technological Eras

There is No More Work

Amazon

Google car

Journalism

Medicine

Airbnb

Training and MOOC

Law and Justice 4.0

Corollaries

The Future is Today

3D Printing

Autonomous Vehicles

New Materials

Advanced Robotics

Artificial intelligence

The Biological and Genomic Sphere

Work in the Fourth Industrial Revolution

The Skills of the Future

The Market of the Future

The Alien Invasion

Who Sells and Who Buys

Freeter and NEET: A Vicious Cycle

Privacy

PART FOURTOWARDS A NEW ECONOMIC PARADIGM

Anti-Automation

Guaranteed basic income

Short Term Policies

The Party of the Unemployed

The McAfee Formula

The Right Mix of Solutions

Keynes’ Prophecy

Monopoly, Antitrust and Open Source

The Education of Society: Lifelong Learning and Education

Robotic Endowment

Taxation

Tax Recovery from the Big Players on the Web

Redistribution of Taxation on Natural Persons

Universal Basic Income: Between Welfare States and Political Ideologies

Maslow’s Pyramid

A New Technological Socialism?

Conclusions

Afterword

The Author

Preface and Afterword’s Authors

Bibliography

Internet Bibliography

Image and Tables

PART ONE – THE MACRO TRENDS 2018-2030

Figure 1. Time required for a product to reach 50 million users

Figure 2. World population by age and sex (2015)

Figure 3. World population by age and sex (2100 forecast)

Figure 4. Forecast of the global increase of individuals over 60 years of age

Figure 5. Increase in the world population compared to 2000, by age group (2000-2050)

Figure 6. Percentage of population by age groups in the main areas (2015)

Figure 7. The Wealth Pyramid

Figure 8. Global Wealth Share 2010-2015

Figure 9. The change in income between 1980 and 2014

Figure 10. Variation every 34 years (period 1946–1980, 1980–2014)

Figure 11. Income growth in 1980

Figure 12. Income growth in 2014

PART THREE – THE FOURTH INDUST RIAL REVOLUTION

Figure 1. From the First to the Fourth Industrial Revolution

Figure 2. Smart factory: network architecture

Figure 3. Industry 4.0: enabling technologies (courtesy i-scoop)

Figure 4. Falling and increasing professions

Figure 5. Business value scale 2006–2018

Figure 6. Changes in Productivity and Wages Since 1948

Figure 7. Workforce participation (1950–2013).

Figure 8. Technology adoption curve, 2017

Figure 9. Economies of scale

Figure 10. Impact of automation by sector and task

PART FOUR – TOWARDS A NEW ECONOMIC PARADIGM

Figure 1. Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs

I thank all the people who enrich my understanding of the world every day, especially my family, the first source of criticism and inspiration.

They have always put up with me and my research even at the expense of precious time taken from them. A special thank you goes to my children, the constant thought of whom pushes me to explore pathways to a better future.

Preface

Robots, artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, blockchain, augmented reality, the sharing economy, new mobility, Big Data and Industry 4.0, are just some of the words that are used emblematically to describe the transformation in progress. A transformation that is the subject of this book in which Montanari, through an original interpretation, explores the technological innovations of the modern era, the implications they have produced, and offers a compass to guide the reader through the sea of tumultuous change in which, more or less consciously, we are all moving.

It is a fact that technology has become the inescapable companion of everyday life and that technological development has inevitably brought about great repercussions at the economic, political, religious, cultural and territorial levels. Recent advances in almost all areas of life have given advanced societies a standard of living that is unprecedented; at the same time, however, they also lead us to forecast serious threats, especially if the transition is drastic and protracted over time, and particularly if the grave problems afflicting the modus operandi of our capitalism—the map of the business system, the labor market, the growing income inequalities, etc.—are not seriously addressed.

Montanari’s book is innovative in its method, practical and usable. Beginning with the momentous ideas that have framed technological evolution, it proceeds along a specific path of extremely topical issues of social relevance, to finally abstract the experiences of the past in order to build the ideas of the future. Such a choice presupposes a constant circularity of methodological approach: references made to specific and representative cases, the vastness of accessible theoretical references and, at the same time, very differentiated and updated case studies. These are the substantial elements that guide the reader. One does not sense that the author has taken any position or entertained a preconceived idea—whether favorable or unfavorable. Rather, a far more productive approach, based on weights and balances, is used, so as to make the reader independent in elaborating their opinions. This impartial criticism therefore avoids extremes, opens the mind to possible applicable choices, and combines competence with the latest developments and animated daily debates.

With his book, Tech Impact, Lights and Shadows of Technological Development, Gianmarco Montanari opens the reader’s eyes considerably and examines the opportunities and risks related to the development of technology and automation in an exhaustive, clear and accessible manner. He proposes free-market and social policy solutions that could guide us in choosing the actions to be undertaken. This book represents an exceptional mix of historical events (of social, political and philosophical importance), of curious anecdotes and accurate economic analysis (such as how artificial intelligence will change work, educational models, consumption, the socio-economic environment, lifestyles and finally, man himself).

This is a book that emerges from the panorama of non-fiction because of its originality and vigor and is of capital importance to understand and face the greatest challenge of our time. This accurate portrayal is an inexhaustible source of information, reflections and suggestions that stimulate the reader’s curiosity and push him to deepen further the theme of man and his relationship with technology, allowing him also to respond with greater awareness to the questions of a world in continual realization.

Addressing the ambitious theme of possible future scenarios from various viewpoints—not only the technological, but also the philosophical and social—the book ultimately gives us the vision of a new society, whose impact on humanity is still uncertain and therefore still in our hands. Only by making good use of the ability to adapt and manage new technologies can the man of the future guarantee the true key to success.

Giorgio Fossa Industrial entrepreneur

Introduction

Dear Reader, what you are about to read is a PatchBook, as I call it; the adjective is derived from the art of Patchwork, or “reconstructed work,” a form of embroidery that sews pieces of fabric of different shapes and colors together into a bigger design. These shapes are carefully measured and cut in order to be put together, but they also have significance on their own.

This is how the PatchBook works: as a set of information, notes, logical designs, and drawings, taken here and there, to form, once sewn, a single autonomous meaning.

It is, therefore, not always necessary for the “patches” to be original; indeed, it is better if they are reused adequately, because what matters is the possibility of providing a new thought, a key to interpretation that is different from those suggested by the individual components.

This PatchBook starts from the present to explore possible future scenarios.

From the survey of the main world trends and of the innovative forces known today we will proceed to formulate hypotheses relating to the way of living, working and thinking in the coming decades.

For those of you who are skeptical of such forecasts, I ask only one simple question: how would your day be today without the smartphone you own?

Just a few years ago, on January 9th 2007, Steve Jobs presented an object that in a few months would completely revolutionize everyone’s way of life, from always being connected to carrying out infinite tasks and activities in a simplified way through an App.

Tell me now if you still have any doubts about the possibility that an invention, existing today in some corner of the planet, can revolutionize our lives in a matter of a few months or years.

My goal is, therefore, to make you aware that we are navigating in waters agitated by strong currents that will lead us, sooner or later, to “an island that is not there.”

But the smartphone revolution was neither the first nor the only one. Milton Friedman, Nobel Laureate in Economics, related how in the Sixties, while a consultant in a highly developing Asian country, he noted that construction workers were almost exclusively equipped with shovels; rarely did they have bulldozers or earthmoving equipment to use. He therefore asked the government for an explanation. The answer, which bordered on the annoyed, was that this was an employment development project. Friedman responded that perhaps it was more appropriate to equip the workers with teaspoons. In this way, he demonstrated the typical skepticism of economists when faced with the fear that technological innovation will lead to the loss of jobs.

The mechanization of agriculture, for example, displaced thousands of workers without jobs to the city-factories; then the automation of the industry transfered work into the service sector. Of course, in every transition, a peak of unemployment had to be faced, but it was always only momentary and, above all, followed by the emergence of new jobs, of better quality and paid better.

The Golden Age was certainly the thirty years after the end of the Second World War, a period in which the improvement of technology increased productivity without creating unemployment, requiring better paid jobs; then the increase in productivity led, in large part, to an increase in wages which resulted in an increase in demand, thus creating a virtuous circle.

Unfortunately, starting in the Seventies, the productivity-salary relationship began to decline. In 2013, a worker’s wage was 13% lower than his colleague’s of 1973 while productivity had increased by 107% and the cost of the average basket of primary goods, such as housing, education, health, etc. had increased as well.

The first decade of the 2000s was the first zero job creation decade. Income inequality reached 1929 levels as the substantial result of transferring productivity gains toward the return of capital rather than the remuneration of wages. This is not the result of either an ideological or a market choice, but rather, the consequence of an epochal change, where we moved from machines at the service of man’s work to machines that carry out man’s work.

All of this has been accelerated by the incessant progress of computational capacity as shown by Moore’s Law which demonstrates how the ability of computers doubles every 12/18 months. In order to understand, imagine driving at 5 km per hour, after one minute doubling the speed to 10 km per hour, then continue doubling every minute. After 10 minutes, you will be hurtling along at 2,560 km per hour and will have traveled 42.6 km or 512 times the distance completed in the first minute. Think what this means for a processor created in 1958.

An example of this is provided by two iconic objects made by Steve Jobs: the 1984 Macintosh 128 and the current, top-end, iPhone X. The iPhone X has 125,000 times the information capacity of the Macintosh 128, but it costs about 20 times less. These exorbitant numbers give an idea of how far IT technology has come when compared to how it started, but above all they show how, in every instant today, the increase compared to yesterday is of unimaginable size.

The consequences on the job are also varied and diversified. If, in the past, technological innovation impacted low-level workers, today this is no longer so. Any form of work can be replaced and improved, at least any form of work that can be “reduced to a routine” or made “predictable”—in other words, if your work can be learned from an algorithm that analyzes in detail and replicates every past operation—especially with the current level of expansion of Big Data and artificial intelligence (which we will discuss extensively in a later section).

The trend linked to labour-saving technologies can only increase in every industrial sector, with the result that we will find ourselves facing immense socio-economic stress.

Obviously, the technological path is not yet so easily delineated and must be interfaced with the major changes in progress: climate change, demographic change, reduction of resources and increase of public debt. But the question today is more pressing than ever. Will the mix of these forces currently underway and the speed of their implementation be likely to thrust us into the perfect storm that will indelibly change our way of life? Above all, what can we do to try to guide this process without passively submitting to it?

The aim of this book is therefore not only to create awareness of the changes underway, but also to lay the foundations for their possible management, to realign criticalities and, above all, to transform threats into opportunities. As the axiom states, innovation brings about progress, but the bad management of change can severely cancel out its benefits.

The “Certain” Value of Innovation

Never in history, as in the last few decades, have we spent our lives continually forming ourselves and acquiring, more or less consciously, information we need in daily life in the pursuit of hobbies as well as in work. The level of accessibility is so great that we often assimilate information without realizing it, but there are moments and concepts that are forever etched, milestones that somehow guide us in our thinking. This applies to everyone, but especially to the “scientists,” as I define that group of people who are more or less cultured, who deal with science and technology in various capacities, who follow a rational approach or a rigorous and systematic method in both work and private life.

Humbly considering myself included in the stereotype of the “scientists” group, I learned one of the milestones of my reasoning during my first year of university in the Faculty of Engineering in Corso Duca in Turin. Saturday mornings I had lessons with the fearsome teacher of “Method and Rigor” as well as of Mathematical Analysis, Professor Anna Rosa Scarafiotti, which we students rebaptized as “Scara.” I’m talking about the Axiom!

First of all, axiom means a principle taken as true, either because it is considered evident or because it provides the starting point for a theoretical framework of reference. A set of primitive axioms and conceptions constitutes the foundation, the “starting point,” or the origin of each deductive theory. Axioms, like their postulated cousins, by their nature are never proven, because they have no need to be so. Thus, the following proposition is an axiom: “Technological innovation in history has always enriched society and improved the quality of human life.” (Let me add, at least in the long run, and not including the improper use made by some).

But since we live in an era in which everything is the object of discussion, without taking axioms and postulates into consideration and far from drawing upon the countless examples of what we are permitted today thanks to medicine or the combustion engine, I will limit myself to reporting the story of one of the richest and most powerful men of all time: Nathan Mayer Freiherr von Rothschild.

Nathan Rothschild, English banker of German origin, was the richest man in the world when he died in 1836. A list compiled by Forbes magazine in 2014 ranks him as the second richest man of all time, even before John D. Rockefeller, Mexican telecommunications magnate Carlos Slim Helú, Bill Gates and recently, Jeff Bezos (for the record, to date, the richest was the Roman general Caesar Augustus, in power when the throne belonged to Julius Caesar[1]).

Despite his immense wealth, Rothschild died of septicemia, even though he had access to the best medical care available in the world at that time. He died at the age of 58 years from a disease that today could be cured by an antibiotic that can be purchased for a few euros.

Not only; he did not know cars, trains or planes, he never visited the Taj Mahal, he never heard recorded music, he never saw a film, he never made a phone call, nor did he ever use electric light.

I quote this anecdote to ask you if you think Rothschild was truly the second richest man in history. Was he perhaps wealthier than I am? He could, of course, hire a fleet of carriages and eat on plates of gold, but he would probably have exchanged it all in order to survive an abscess! Not to mention all those activities and services that today everyone takes for granted and that Nathan had never even dreamed of.

So yes, innovation has been, and continues to be, an improvement.

[1]The figures used by Forbes are, of course, adjusted for inflation.

PART ONE MACRO TRENDS 2018-2030

In the following pages, I have tried simply and clearly to report on the main trends of change in recent years.

As I will show, they do not act as watertight compartments, but often they overlap, mix, modify, develop with each other, and they do so with great rapidity and dynamism, as demonstrated by the comparison of the differing adoption times of some innovations shown in the following image. [Figure 1. Time required for a product to reach 50 million users]