The Asia Investor E-Book

Aaron Chaze

• Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
• Kategorie: Fachliteratur
• Sprache: Englisch

Seitenzahl: 286

Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2010

Beschreibung

Emerging Asia was the fairytale story to emerge from the economic horror that engulfed much of the world in 2008 and 2009. Even at the height of the crisis key emerging Asian economies made headlines for extraordinary macro growth numbers. But the question frequently asked is whether emerging Asian nations, especially China, will be able to sustain their pace of growth. In this timely book, Asian expert Aaron Chaze asks whether the booming Asian economies have what it takes to move away from an export-led, external-trade dominated economy and truly embrace a free-market philosophy. The Asia Investor provides a solid framework for analyzing investment opportunities across the region and picking potential winners. Asia is buoyed by several trends that drive these opportunities and it is the analysis of these trends that forms the core of this book.

Leseprobe

Table of Contents

Title Page

Copyright Page

Dedication

Introduction

Chapter 1 - Asia Rising: Emerging Themes and Trends

A New Economic Phase Begins for Asia

Emerging Investment Themes in Asia

Asia Rising: The Complete Picture

Chapter 2 - The Changing Investment Canvas

Asia’s “Learning Factories”

Asian Real Estate: More than Just Four Walls

Retailing: “We Can Do It, You Can Learn”

Asia’s Story on Wheels

The Art World: Asia’s Next Investment Horizon

Media, Entertainment, and Lifestyle Change

Chapter 3 - Asia’s Infrastructure Build-Out: The Next Great Investment Opportunity

Infrastructure: Building Pipelines and Lifelines

Asia’s Infrastructure Requirement: Diverse Needs of a Diverse Continent

Transportation Infrastructure

Domestic Trade Infrastructure

Agricultural Infrastructure: From Farm Gate to Supermarket Shelf

Israel’s Micro-Irrigation Know-How

The Middle East as an Emerging Infrastructure Destination

Chapter 4 - Building Brands but Keeping an Eye on Traditional Strengths

Asia’s Technology Thrust

Animation and Gaming: The “Soft” Touch

Software Services: Almost Recession-Proof

Hardware

From Low-Cost Manufacturing to Value-Added Manufacturing

Domestic Defense Manufacturing

Metals and Mining

Chapter 5 - Asia: The Next Great Financial Supermarket

Insurance: A Premium Sector

Pan-Asian Institutional Infrastructure

Chinese Banks: Asia’s Achilles’ Heel?

Chapter 6 - The Economics and Politics of Energy

In Gas We Trust

Refining

Power to the People

Tail Winds or Head Winds: The Asian Renewable-Energy Story

Energy Efficiency: A Major Theme in Asia?

Chapter 7 - Political Stability: Asia’s New Investment Catalyst

A New Phenomenon in Asia

Stability and Maturity Vs. Grassroots Democracy

Asian Security: Pacifism as an Economic Mantra

China: Villain or Hero?

Select Bibliography

Index

Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons (Asia) Pte. Ltd.

Published in 2010 by John Wiley & Sons (Asia) Pte. Ltd. 2 Clementi Loop, #02-01, Singapore 129809

All rights reserved.

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as expressly permitted by law, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate photocopy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center. Requests for permission should be addressed to the Publisher, John Wiley & Sons (Asia) Pte. Ltd., 2 Clementi Loop, #02-01, Singapore 129809, tel: [phone], fax: [phone], e-mail: [email protected].

This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in regard to the subject matter covered. It is sold with the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering professional services. If professional advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional person should be sought.

Neither the author nor the publisher are liable for any actions prompted or caused by the information presented in this book. Any views expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views of the organizations they work for.

Other Wiley Editorial Offices

John Wiley & Sons, 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, USA

John Wiley & Sons, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex, P019 8SQ, United Kingdom

John Wiley & Sons (Canada) Ltd., 5353 Dundas Street West, Suite 400, Toronto, Ontario, M9B 6HB, Canada

John Wiley & Sons Australia Ltd., 42 McDougall Street, Milton, Queensland 4064, Australia

Wiley-VCH, Boschstrasse 12, D-69469 Weinheim, Germany

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

ISBN 978-0470-82529-7

Typeset in 11.5/14pt Bembo by Macmillan Ltd.

In memory of my grandmother, Linda Rodrigues.

Introduction

Emerging Asia was the fairytale story to surface from the economic horror that enfolded much of the world in 2008 and 2009. Right through the slump and the nascent recovery of late 2009 and early 2010, Asian markets regularly made the headlines for extraordinary macro growth numbers or spikes in the stock index. More than the numbers, though, it was the swift response of these economies to government stimulus measures that was interesting to see. But the question frequently asked is whether Asian countries, especially China, will be able to sustain the pace of growth or whether their economies will collapse under their own weight, especially if the underlying drivers turn out to be more speculative than fundamental. The question is not how sustainable is the growth (for growth rates will inevitably slow) but whether these economies have what it takes to move away from an export-led, external-trade-dominated economic philosophy and truly embrace a free-market philosophy. The focus should be on whether these countries can develop their domestic economies. The answer is linked to whether or not they are able to open their markets to domestic and foreign competition and whether they can go beyond manufacturing and enjoy a service-sector-led boom that pulls the tens of millions of unemployed or underemployed people into the mainstream economy.

Asia is buoyed by several trends that drive the opportunity across the region. These trends morphed into themes, the analysis of which forms the basis of this book. I have dwelt both on short-term factors that can be observed and tested today and on the longer-term themes that can be tested further down the road. In most cases, these powerful investment themes are shaped by events that affected Asian nations individually or collectively over the past decade and a half and thus have become deep-rooted.

The key crisis for Asia was the currency and debt crisis of 1997-98, which triggered changes in economic policies, systems, governance structures, and corporate strategies. The change has manifested itself in different ways: how Thai real-estate companies have redefined their operations; the emergence of Indian multinationals; the real evolution of regional trade in financial services; the emergence of a regional debt market; the evolution of a framework for Asian multilateral cooperation and the growing institutionalization of Asia; increased cross-border trade; a move up the value chain by commodity-dependent nations; and a move to diversify risk by commodity-surplus nations.

China and India are the oft-cited examples of Asian growth prospects but equally exciting are the emerging trends in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam. Riding these varied trends, too, are the older Asian tigers—Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. There are also developments under way in once-stodgy Middle Eastern countries: the next decade or two could see their transformation into dynamic services-driven economies to rival Israel’s current status as the region’s only dynamic economy.

A number of companies are discussed in the book and are, for the most part, used for illustrative purposes only. The fact that they are mentioned should not be taken to mean that they are investment recommendations. In fact, some readers may recognize that a few of the corporate names discussed are not investment-worthy, for a variety of reasons. I have not made the distinction between investment grade and non-investment grade names since all the companies mentioned help in uncovering the investment canvas or are useful for understanding unfolding trends in an industry. What the book is intended to do, however, is to provide a framework for analyzing the investment opportunity across the region and to help readers pick their own winners.

Chapter 1

Asia Rising: Emerging Themes and Trends

During the early years of the fifteenth century, the legendary Chinese admiral and navigator Zheng He led large armadas on voyages to the far reaches of Asia, eventually crossing the vast expanse of the Indian Ocean to reach the shores of Mogadishu in East Africa. These voyages—sometimes involving fleets of up to 300 ships—were an attempt by the prosperous and progressive Ming Dynasty to spread its influence in Asia and demonstrate its growing power. More than conquest, these voyages were meant to show off the tremendous achievements of the Chinese people. This age of Chinese expansion, however, was brief, lasting for only around three decades. The natural instinct to withdraw within the confines of its borders and its cultural embrace of modesty was too strong to resist, despite the tremendous domestic and international impact of a growing, prosperous, and increasingly powerful China. To compound the philosophical and cultural tendency to introvert, the Chinese expression of power came at a time of European renaissance and renewal that led to a European golden age that resulted in the colonization, subjugation, and eventual decline of China, India, and other Asian civilizations.

Well before the economic and political growth in the Ming Dynasty, though, China had already emerged as a world trading powerhouse during the Tang Dynasty (618-907 AD), with merchant ships trading at ports in India, Sri Lanka, Persia, and Mesopotamia (modern day Iraq), and in Egypt, Ethiopia, and Somalia in North and East Africa. Chinese trade with kingdoms in India was recorded as far back as 2,000 years ago.