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A guided journey revealing hidden values and buried treasures while negotiating the investing landscape. A metaphorical journey through the hot, shifting sands of the capital markets 'desert' to awaken readers to the urgency of the "Behavior Gap"--a chronic gap of under-performance relative to the markets experienced by investors worldwide. This is a roadmap of portfolio management concepts and contrarian tactics that can turn misbehaviors, undue risks, and short-term gambles into longer-term strengths. Through 27 chapters and four tiers, the author progressively introduces more powerful tools & techniques used in the founding and ongoing management of the Oasis Growth Fund, a North American Hedge Fund.
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Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2022
Cover
Title Page
Copyright
Dedication
About the Author
List of Abbreviations
Introduction
Who Might Benefit?
For DIY Investors
Choosing a Mission
CAVEATS
In Respect of Your Advisor
For Financial Planners, Advisors, and Family Offices
Notes
FOUNDATION
Chapter 1: Eyes Wide Open
Hierarchy of Creating Value with Investing
Better Behavior Beats Brains
Consumer, Dabbler, Gambler, Capitalist, or Investor?
Retail Investing – Three Alternatives
Notes
Chapter 2: Choosing the Right Path
The Behavior Gap
Capital Markets Behavior: What Works? What Doesn't?
Choosing a Path
Setting Expectations
Notes
Chapter 3: Risk 101
Building Perspectives
Fear
Risk Management Plan (RMP) Overview
RMP #1 : Establishing Risk Perspectives
Winning with Market Corrections
Accountability Creates Value
Notes
Chapter 4: Setting the Asset Mix
Reviewing Personal Risk
RMP #2 : Determining Financial Capacity
RMP #3 : Assessing Risk Tolerance
RMP #4 : Calculating a Required Rate of Return
RMP #5 : Setting the Asset Mix
Notes
Chapter 5: Firming Our “Backbone”
Keeping It Simple
Introducing the “Three Brains”
Harnessing the “Three Brains”
Building Backbone
Notes
Chapter 6: The Case for a Planner/Advisor
A Professional Backstop
Planner vs. Advisor
Performing an Annual Assessment
Going DIY
Best of Three Worlds: The Hybrid Model
Notes
Foundation Comments
THE INVESTING OASIS: Tier 1
Chapter 7: The Oasis Growth Fund (OGF) Model
Choose Your “Camels” Well
RMP #6: Filtering for Quality Stocks
Eight Steps to Designing a Core Growth Portfolio
Step 1. Designing a Purposeful Portfolio: Setting the Investment Policy
Notes
Chapter 8: Stock Selection
Step 2. Designing a Purposeful Portfolio: Six Quantitative Filters
Step 3. Designing a Purposeful Portfolio: Deploying a Stock Screening Platform
Notes
Chapter 9: Stock Selection
RMP #7: Profiling for Stock Performance and Volatility Traits
Step 4. Designing a Purposeful Portfolio: Profiling a Stock's Character
Step 5. Designing a Purposeful Portfolio: Choosing a Stock Research Platform
Notes
Chapter 10: Stock Selection
Step 6. Designing a Purposeful Portfolio: Four Qualitative Screens
Investing with Purpose
Notes
Chapter 11: Stock Selection
RMP #8: 3+ Degrees of Diversification
Step 7. Designing a Purposeful Portfolio: Diversification Techniques
Prioritization of Diversification
Notes
Chapter 12: Portfolio Construction
Step 8. Designing a Purposeful Portfolio: Equal Allocation
Advantages of an Equal-Weighted Portfolio
Final Steps
Note
Chapter 13: Beware Those Temptations
Wandering Spirits Beware
RMP #9: Speculation and Leverage
The Discretionary
The Good
The Bad
The Ugly
Summary
Notes
Tier 1 Summary
THE INVESTING OASIS: Tier 2
Chapter 14: The Buy-in
Trading Challenges
Lump Sum
Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA)
Selling Put Contracts – A Wiser Buy-in (for More Advanced Investors)
Sentiment Indicators
Buy-in Checklist
10 Smarter Trading Tips
Notes
Chapter 15: Contrarian Rebalancing
RMP #10: Rebalancing
Acting Contrarian
Relative Strength Indicators (RSIs)
Benefits of Rebalancing
Notes
Chapter 16: A Hidden Well of Income
RMP #11: Income and Protection with Covered Calls
Non-critical Risk
Covered Call Tactics
Notes
Tier 2 Summary
THE INVESTING OASIS: Tier 3
Chapter 17: Warren B – The Ultimate Contrarian
Becoming a Contrarian
Rejecting the Behavior Gap
Principles and Behaviors of the “Wise One”
Become a Contrarian
Note
Chapter 18: Contrarian Cash and Leverage
RMP #12: Four Steps to Effective Cash Management
Seven Steps to Effective Debt Management
Notes
Chapter 19: Digging for Buried Treasures
Sell High, Buy Low
Let the Hunt Begin
Effective Management of a Portfolio of Puts
X Marks the Spot
Notes
Chapter 20: Emotion-free Selling
Selling Protocols
The Essence of Capitulation
Emotion-Free Selling
Notes
Tier 3 Summary
THE INVESTING OASIS: Tier 4
Chapter 21: “Storm” Forecasting
RMP #13: “Weather” Forecasting
Market Sentiment Indicators
The Ultimate Wisdom of the Stock Market
Notes
Chapter 22: “Rounding Up the Camels”
RMP #14: Prepping for the “Storm”
“Rounding Up the Camels”
Getting Reinvested
Storm: Post-Mortem
Notes
Chapter 23: Portfolio Protection
Portfolio Insurance 101
RMP #15: Profiting from the Panic
Insurance Decisions
Four Hedging Solutions
Profiting from Panic
Notes
Tier 4 Summary
Chapter 24: Putting It All Together
“All In”
Value-Creating Processes
Better Capital Markets Behavior
Risk Management
Capital Markets Expectations
Notes
Chapter 25: The Next-Gen Financial System
The Metaverse
Blockchain Technology
Digital Coins/Cryptocurrencies
Borderless, Frictionless, Timeless, and Fairer
Notes
Chapter 26: A Case for Active Management
The OASIS Growth Fund
Note
Chapter 27: Tools and Resources
Investing Education
Resource Triangulation
Three Thoughts about Second Opinions
Discount Trading Platforms
Well of the Wise: References, Studies, Books, and Authors
Portfolio Time Management
Notes
About the Website
Index
End User License Agreement
Introduction
Table I.1 Four mission tiers.
Chapter 3
Table 3.1 89-year S&P history.
Chapter 4
Table 4.1 Financial capacity test.
Table 4.2 Missouri risk tolerance key.
Table 4.3 Intangible risk tolerance adjustments.
Table 4.4 93 years of market data from NYU.
Table 4.5 Asset mix projections.
Chapter 6
Table 6.1 CFA investor rights.
Table 6.2 Advisor test ranking.
Chapter 7
Table 7.1 The Oasis Growth Fund investment policy.
Chapter 10
Table 10.1 Annualized Performance S&P 500 vs. S&P 500 ESG.
Chapter 11
Table 11.1 Berkshire Hathaway top five holdings (as at March 31, 2022).
Table 11.2 Sector allocation of the S&P 500 Index as at July 30, 2020.
Chapter 12
Table 12.1 Equal-weighted portfolio allocations.
Chapter 14
Table 14.1 TTD sample put-selling comparison.
Chapter 15
Table 15.1 Material vs. non-material matters.
Chapter 16
Table 16.1 Call contract choices.
Chapter 19
Table 19.1 Material vs. non-material matters.
Table 19.2 Options contract parameters.
Table 19.3 OTM example.
Table 19.4 ATM example.
Table 19.4 Align Technology assessment.
Chapter 21
Table 21.1 Market mayhem 1946–2020
Chapter 22
Table 22.1 Market mayhem 1946–2020.
Chapter 23
Table 23.1 Temporary and structured insurance solutions.
Table 23.2 Setting up a VIX call spread collar (fence).
Chapter 24
Table 24.1 Four tiers of value creation.
Chapter 27
Table 27.1 Referenced studies, books, and authors.
Introduction
Figure I.1 Overview of the stages of purposeful portfolio management.
Chapter 1
Figure 1.1 Hierarchy of portfolio value creation. Adapted from https://www.f...
Figure 1.2 Investing vs. gambling.
Chapter 2
Figure 2.1 The behavior gap.
Figure 2.2 Investors are buying high and selling low.
Figure 2.3 S&P 500 Index rolling returns (1973–2021).
Figure 2.4 Annualized price returns for the S&P 500 Index (1996–2016).
Figure 2.5 Timing the market is futile.
Figure 2.6
The Investing Oasis
expected portfolio performance.
Chapter 3
Figure 3.1 Bulls vs. Bears 1996–2021.
Chapter 4
Figure 4.1 Return/risk spectrum.
Figure 4.2 Annual returns history for a portfolio of 100% fixed income.
Figure 4.3 Performance history for a portfolio of 100% fixed income.
Figure 4.4 Annual returns history for a portfolio of stocks.
Figure 4.5 Performance history for a portfolio of 100% stocks.
Chapter 7
Figure 7.1 Equity style box.
Figure 7.2 Total returns of individual stocks vs. Russell 3000 Index.
Figure 7.3 Stock selection filters (1–9).
Figure 7.4 Stock selection filters (10–16).
Figure 7.5 Venn diagram summary of 16 stock selection filters.
Chapter 8
Figure 8.1 Oasis Growth Fund geographic revenue as of March 31, 2021.
Figure 8.2 Optimal investing zone.
Figure 8.3 Align Technologies Inc. revenue & earnings (2016–2019).
Chapter 9
Figure 9.1 Sample portfolio performance profile data.
Chapter 10
Figure 10.1 ESG categories of assessment.
Chapter 11
Figure 11.1 Correlation coefficient scale.
Figure 11.2 Five-year correlation coefficient matrix.
Chapter 12
Figure 12.1 Summary of stock selection filters.
Figure 12.2 Outperformance of an equal-weight index.
Chapter 13
Figure 13.1 The asset zones of the reward/risk spectrum.
Figure 13.2 BetaPro S&P 500 Daily Inverse ETF.
Chapter 14
Figure 14.1 Buffett indicator.
Figure 14.3 Monthly Insider Buy/Sell Ratio vs. SPY as at Oct 2021.
Figure 14.4 Suggested stock purchase methods.
Chapter 16
Figure 16.1 MSFT options chain.
Chapter 18
Figure 18.1 Chasing performance.
Figure 18.2 USD margin loan rates comparison.
Chapter 19
Figure 19.1 Apple options chain as at May 2020.
Figure 19.2 Five-year Apple share price history with deployment of options c...
Figure 19.3 Premium Brands Holdings options chain as at May 2020.
Figure 19.4 Five-year Premium Brands Holdings share price history with deplo...
Figure 19.5 Align options chain as at May 2020.
Figure 19.6 Five-year Align Technology share price history with deployment o...
Figure 19.7 Speculative put-selling decision flowchart.
Figure 19.8 Put ladder timeline.
Chapter 21
Figure 21.1 S&P 500 Index relative to forward P/E ratio.
Figure 21.2 VIX Index vs. S&P 500 since 1990.
Chapter 22
Figure 22.1 Various sources of portfolio volatility.
Chapter 23
Figure 23.1 VIX Index vs. S&P 500 Index.
Figure 23.2 16-Step Risk Management pyramid.
Chapter 24
Figure 24.1 Risk mitigation techniques.
Figure 24.2
The Investing Oasis
expected portfolio performance overview.
Chapter 27
Figure 27.1 Investing tools and resources.
Figure 27.2 Portfolio time management.
Foundation
Figure I.2 Overview
Cover
Title Page
Copyright
Dedication
About the Author
List of Abbreviations
Introduction
Table of Contents
Begin Reading
About the Website
Index
End User License Agreement
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J.T. Mason
Copyright © 2023 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey.
Published simultaneously in Canada.
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (978) 750-8400, fax (978) 750-4470, or on the web at www.copyright.com. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, (201) 748-6011, fax (201) 748-6008, or online at http://www.wiley.com/go/permission.
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Names: Mason, J. T. (Jay T.), author.
Title: The investing oasis : contrarian treasure in the capital markets desert / J. T. Mason.
Description: Hoboken, New Jersey : Wiley, [2023] | Includes index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2022008582 (print) | LCCN 2022008583 (ebook) | ISBN 9781119871088 (cloth) | ISBN 9781119871101 (adobe pdf) | ISBN 9781119871095 (epub)
Subjects: LCSH: Investments. | Portfolio management.
Classification: LCC HG4521 .M347 2022 (print) | LCC HG4521 (ebook) | DDC 332.6–dc23/eng/20220329
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2022008582
LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2022008583
Cover Design: Paul McCarthy
Cover Art: Sky: © Getty Images | Romanovskyy
Desert: © Shutterstock | USTAS7777777
Photo: John C. Watson / IMPS
As her favorite “investment guy,” my mother supported my career by willingly moving her funds between institutions with each progressive step. Yet, even into her failing years, she extended trust to allow me to manage her wealth in her better interests. Through good and bad markets, if she ever worried, I never heard about it.
The Investing Oasis is dedicated to Mollie, who taught me that “integrity” is “Doing the right thing, particularly when no one's watching.”
In loving embrace
Marjorie (Mollie) Edith MasonSource: Author
I must also thank the other members of Team 2.2: Jasmine and her Duru Indi.
Both have been integral in this journey. Their patience and wisdom have both inspired and conspired to render me a better man. Love to you both.
Jay T. Mason, CFA®, CFP® is a Portfolio Manager registered with Fieldhouse Capital Management in Vancouver, Canada. He has 25+ years of progressive asset management experience with several major Canadian investment management firms. In 2012, he took a sabbatical to re-evaluate his role in an industry deserving of greater innovation. Through the combination of new technology, business experience, and following his convictions, the Oasis Growth Fund was launched.
“If you don't live for something, you'll die for nothing.”
—unknown
ACB
adjusted cost base
ADR
American Depository Receipt
AIF
alternative investment funds
AML
anti-money laundering
ATM
at-the-money
BPS
bear put spread
CC
covered call
CBCD
central bank digital currency
CRRCFF
correlation coefficient
DAO
distributive autonomous organization
DIY
do-it-yourself
DCA
dollar-cost averaging
D/E
debt-to-equity ratio
DRIP
dividend reinvestment plan
EBITDA
earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization
ESG
environmental, social, and governance
ETF
exchange-traded fund
FMV
fair market value
FOMO
fear of missing out
FORTH
fill outside of regular trading hours
FOSS
fear of a sinking ship
GICS
global industry classification standard
GTC
good 'til canceled
HNW
high-net-worth
IPO
initial public offering
IPS
investment policy statement
ITM
in-the-money
KYC
know your client
MACD
moving average convergence divergence
M&A
mergers and acquisitions
MER
management expense ratio
NFT
non-fungible token
OCC
Options Clearing Corporation
OGF
Oasis Growth Fund
OTM
out-of-the-money
P/E
price/earnings ratio
PFOF
payment-for-order-flow
PRI
principles for responsible investing
QARP
quality at a reasonable price
R&D
research and development
REIT
real estate investment trust
RMP
risk management plan
ROE
return on equity
RoR
rate of return
RSI
Relative Strength Index
RTH
regular trading hours
SaaS
software-as-a-service
SD
standard deviation
SDG
sustainable investment goal
SL
stop-loss order
SP
strike price
SPAC
special purpose acquisition corporation
SRI
socially responsible investments
TR
turnover ratio
TSL
trailing stop-loss order
VIX
CBOE volatility index
VP
value proposition
“Investing is not just the study of finance. It's the study of how people behave with money.”
—Morgan Housel, The Psychology of Money1
Gazing up at the nighttime sky in the heart of the desert is nothing short of awe-inspiring. Across the horizon in all directions, stars brilliantly taunt our imagination. Despite that scientists estimate there are about 200 × 1024 stars in the universe (two hundred thousand million million millon), Dorrit Hoffleit of Yale University used mathematical modeling to determine that the naked eye can only see about 9,096 stars on a cloudless night without the impingement of city lights.2 Don't bother counting, but like the desert nomads for centuries, just a few of the salient stars and constellations were required to accurately aid their navigation across the formless deserts. The night sky has always been nature's most trustworthy GPS.
While metaphorically comparing a nomad's journey across a barren desert to investing in the capital markets may seem obtuse, there are many relevant lessons to be derived:
That any long-term quest, let alone one that lasts a lifetime, requires planning, a road map, and the right resources.
That hidden in the sand dunes are life-sustaining wells of investing opportunities and treasures to be discovered. But how far afield to stray before the dangers outweigh the rewards?
That learning to read nature's subtle signs could improve an investor's fate.
That, to best navigate across unknown, hostile territory, success is more often aligned with following true North Star behaviors.
That time spent exploring, overcoming challenges, and self-reflecting can lead to unexpected rewards.
Before launching into the pragmatics of investing, however, consider redefining your mission. Matching self-awareness with ambitions is a key to finding success in life, no matter the pursuit. By understanding the capital markets universe better and where your limits are, the journey will be clearer and easier.
Investors are awakening. “Do-it-yourself” (DIY) investing has come of age. Across all sociodemographic cohorts, investors globally are stepping up to test their mettle in the markets. Unrelenting advances in technology, access to refined data, analytics, and commission-free trading now offer unlimited opportunities for retail investors to enrich themselves. All in the comfort of the home.
According to a survey conducted by the Ontario Securities Commission, 60% of retail investors are men. Yet investing is more urgent for women because of pay inequities in the workplace, a subversion of their productive careers to look after family matters, and a longer life expectancy. The DIY movement affords women the possibility to pursue an investing agenda on their terms.
Whether supplementing day jobs (or lost jobs) with trading wins or fearing to miss out on next-gen IPOs or even being seduced by gamified trading platforms, the reasons for participation are varied. An unexpected outcome from the 2020–2021 pandemic was an increase in social investing activism. Most notably, in early 2021, a titanic struggle ensued between a cabal of retail investors coordinated through the social investing sub-Reddit site “WallStreetBets.” To everyone's surprise, in the spring of 2020, the “Davids” were able to strike enough merciless blows against the “Goliaths,” forcing several billionaire vulture capitalist firms to the brink of bankruptcy. Melvin Capital, for one, was forced to borrow $3B from fellow venture capitalists just to keep the firm solvent.
The power of investing is democracy in action. And with growing numbers, the network of retail investors is taking on real power. Every trade can be a vote for change. The Fourth Industrial Revolution (digital) is on our doorstep: AR/VR, EV, 3D printing, 5G/6G phones, IoT devices, AI and robotics, the genome project, autonomous vehicles, drone deliveries, SpaceX, and the renewable energy revolution are some of the many ways an investor can choose to participate. Further, in the interest toward building a more sustainable world, environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards are now more relevant factors of analysis in making better investment decisions.
At this stage, are you prepared to make serious investment decisions that will influence the future of this planet? Ultimately, the best reasons to embrace mindful investing should be to assure a viable personal financial future while supporting businesses seeking to create a better world.
With more than 1 million retail accounts being opened monthly, the capital markets are undergoing a renaissance offering:
Easier access to unlimited research and low-cost trading platforms.
The growth of social investing communities.
Unlimited investment choices, including the fractionalization of assets and IPOs.
No time-wasting bureaucracy.
Zero trading fees and no professional fees.
Access to global exchanges and after-markets trading.
So, like the start to any grand adventure, market-beating fantasies are easily conjured.
Yet, according to Dalbar,3 the leading US independent investment behavior research firm, over a period of 30 years ending 12/31/2018, the average investor lagged the passive S&P 500 index by a margin of 1.51%, annually. Even with a commission-free advantage, this underperformance has remained chronic for decades.
Like it or not, short-term trading is a zero-sum game. For every winner, there will be a loser. And despite holding many strategic advantages relative to the pros, retail investors are generally underprepared to tackle the capital markets head-on. While there are many unique ways an investment journey can get bogged down, the more common themes are:
No plan
– Without a plan, weak convictions and poor diversification get exposed during market corrections, often inducing needless sacrificial selling. It's how an investor acts during difficult times that will define their ultimate success.
No limits
– Making good decisions requires building perspective. Without accountability or guidelines, only an investor's conscience will keep them on a good trajectory. Too many choices without trading discipline can lead to buying on breakouts and selling on breakdowns. Prioritizing principles over profits could lead to better outcomes.
Attention deficit disorder
– Following too many pundits, a short attention span, and easy access to trading technology can entice a long-term investor into higher-risk decisions. Accelerated trading essentially converts solid, long-term investments into short-term gambles, while also increasing the costs.
Emotions
– Passion is the greatest destroyer of wealth. It can seduce us into action against all common sense. At the extremes, greed is just the alter ego of fear (FOMO). Reactive trading never ends well. However, the “behavior gap”
4
can be dramatically reduced and even eliminated without having to overtly change an investor's behavior.
The Rise of AI
– Machine learning algorithms are now responsible for 70% of all trades. Per second, any one algorithm will perform thousands of transactions. Humans can deploy about one per minute. Equally, as emotive creatures, we are prone to making cognitive errors that serve to feed price inefficiencies to these AI programs. Learning to trade proactively can help individual investors minimize the disadvantages.
“Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory.
Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.”
—Sun Tzu, The Art of War
Running headlong into trading stocks, though, is not for the faint of heart. In the capital markets desert, the signs are subtle, dangers abound, and the treasures are hidden. An investment warrior needs to keep their wits about them and to have the right resources to ensure a successful journey.
Unfortunately, there are no havens. While the day-to-day markets are notoriously fickle and sometimes downright frightening, these are the least of an investor's worries. The greater dangers lie within. In between an investor and every trading decision lies their emotions. Greed and fear are in a constant duel, yet both are compounded when intertwined with unduly risky assets and the combustion of leverage.
In an environment of such high stress and competition, to win more consistently requires a more conscious effort. There are no signposts to warn of the dangers. Staying safely on the path requires discipline. Every trade is a negotiation. Both investors won’t be right.
“A funny thing about the stock market is that
every time one person buys, another sells,
and both think they are astute.”
—William Feather (1889–1981), publisher and author
Admittedly, the markets are rigged, but not for the conspiracy reasons proffered by social media. Given the test of time, they have overcome every calamity humankind could ever invent and yet, they continue to rise. This is a deeply underappreciated characteristic about investing. Too many live in fear of the markets because they listen to the unwise and the fearmongers, or they just don't yet know enough about themselves. The beauty of the capital markets desert is seeing beyond the sunset and believing that the sunrise will once again arrive. So goes life, so go the markets.
And along this investing journey are scattered many of the secrets to investing success. Some are obvious but little practiced, while others are overlooked due to inexperience or need of education. A patient, mindful contrarian, however, will likely unearth more of these treasures.
Through The Investing Oasis, the investor will learn just as much as necessary to competently carry out their desired mission. The pathway to these choices will be laid out soon enough.
The Investing Oasis is a dynamic, long-term plan as deployed by the author in a fund called the Oasis Growth Fund (OGF),* an actively managed, equal-weight, North American hedge fund (see Chapter 26).
This guide is organized into the following sections:
A foundation/discovery process
Four tiers of purposeful portfolio management techniques
A summary
Together, they introduce progressively more constructive ways to augment performance, mitigate volatility, diminish risks, reduce mistakes, and control costs. The essential focus is to improve the DIY investing experience.
Let the journey begin.
Warts and all, there is no one else to blame. The market is the market. Self-reflection and self-improvement should be integral to every investor's mission.
Focus on improving the process and oneself. The results will come.
Figure I.1 Overview of the stages of purposeful portfolio management.
Figure I.1 is an overview of the multiple processes and steps involved in designing and managing an effective growth portfolio.
The founding principle practiced throughout The Investing Oasis is “integrity”: “walking the talk.” All concepts shared are principled, purposeful, and practiced professionally by the author. This guide is written logically and pragmatically to provide an easy-to-follow “road map,” integrated along with a behavioral compass to guide investors toward making better risk-measured, capital markets decisions. Together, these provide a guiding hand to methodically build and manage a portfolio, yet with flexibility for investors to explore. Research ideas, suggested tools, investing insights, and trading tips are all woven together with proven portfolio management techniques.
Authoring The Investing Oasis has been a personal undertaking analogous to the hero's journey that most investors face. Navigating the capital markets is hard enough, let alone doing it solo.
The Investing Oasis brings to light many valuable wealth-creating processes:
Crafting a holistic, four-tiered portfolio.
Adoption of select professional practices.
Deployment of proactive trading techniques and behaviors.
Learning to seize alpha-generating opportunities as they arise.
Reduction of undue risk exposures.
Diminishment of costly behaviors.
Learning to skew the “desertscape” to your favor.
Learning to read the market weathervane.
“Storm-proofing” a portfolio for market turbulence.
Setting up portfolio protection techniques.
Learning the benefits of being a better capital markets actor.
Traveling solo is always a chance to get to know oneself better. We grow by being open to alternative routes, learning new skills, broadening our horizons, and even coming to terms with our limitations. Yet it is only during times of challenge and stress that we truly discover ourselves. The stock market is one of the few arenas of open conflict that accepts all players, equally. Yet too many investors enter the fray too casually without regard for the intensity of conflict to be expected or the negotiation skills required. Following The Investing Oasis road map and guidance should improve the odds of a successful journey.
After a progressive career spanning 25 years at several major wealth management firms, I have codified the knowledge and skills of my own journey into The Investing Oasis.
At heart, this investing blueprint should appeal to active, risk-tolerant investors willing to do research, willing to deploy contrarian tactics, and seeking rewards that exceed a passive, low-cost indexing strategy. Those who might benefit most are:
New investors
seeking to begin their journey on the right foot.
Practiced investors
open to recalibrating and refining their investment plan.
Investment Advisors
promoting prudent practices to clients already “dabbling” in the markets.
To create an effective learning process, the chapters are written sequentially and progressively. Each is constructed with a clear objective, a presentation of the challenges, followed by pragmatic solutions and methodologies as deployed in the Oasis Growth Fund, followed by a summary.
Those who prioritize risk-taking and quick returns are less likely to benefit from this guide.
Beneficial Education:
The Securities Industry Essentials Exam
5
offered by FINRA in the US, or
The Canadian Securities Course
6
offered by the Canadian Securities Institute
In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio
by Professors Andrew W. Lo and Stephen R. Foerster.
Interviews with 10 academic scions in search of the perfect portfolio.
The Intelligent Investor
by Ben Graham.
Chapter 27
offers a list of educational materials which are quoted or resourced throughout this guide.
“If you were given six hours to chop down a tree,
Take four hours to sharpen your axe.”
—Albert Einstein (1879–1955)
“Your lifetime performance as an investor will mostly be determined by what you do during wild times.”
—Morgan Housel, The Psychology of Money7
Before engaging in any major competition, whether sports, investing, or war, it is critical to understand your own skills and weaknesses and know how they match up with the competition. In the markets, since real money is at stake, success requires becoming a truly aware warrior. Winning consistently does not happen by chance. Success comes from being open-minded and resilient and learning to exploit weaknesses. In entering the most competitive arena on earth, one must also learn to skew the playing field to their favor. Sun Tzu's The Art of War offers many lessons that can be transposed to the investing arena.
“If ignorant both of your enemy and yourself,
you are certain to be in peril.”
—Sun Tzu, The Art of War
The strong appeals of DIY investing are found in the anonymity and freedom to deploy unconstrained tactics and strategies. However, quick rewards are rarely gained without eventually realizing the risks. Discerning which risks are worth taking and those to avoid is part of the art of investing. The greatest enemies of an investor lie at opposite ends of the emotional spectrum: an inflated ego and self-doubt. A few easy wins or a few miscalculations can quickly influence our self-confidence, both to our detriment. Investing requires a delicate balance. To become a greater warrior requires self-awareness, confidence, and the skills to recognize and manage risks, as well as the will and courage to seize opportunities. Approaching the markets with humility and respect will take an investor further than trading hot stocks.
To earn greater rewards more consistently does not require taking undue risks with uncertain payouts. It requires making smarter decisions with the right tools, at the right time, on terms of your choosing. On any long journey there are many ways to arrive at a destination, yet only very few will be truly effective. Once a better path is known, the status quo will should pale.
Becoming a more effective investor will depend upon your ambition. As a road map, The Investing Oasis provides guidance across familiar terrain and other paths less well-known, with a particular focus on avoiding traps and dangers.
As per Table I.1, there are four tiers, each equating to a potentially more productive mission. Ideally, an investor will master each tier before progressing to the next. However, not all investors may desire to deploy such a comprehensive suite of techniques. Each succeeding level will demand more time and effort. Increasingly complex tactics will require greater skills and capital markets savvy to beneficially negotiate the capital markets. We must be mindful not to exceed our level of competency. Being overly ambitious or impatient will come at a cost.
Tier 1 focuses on building and managing a purposeful portfolio of growth stocks. The three subsequent tiers offer added income, growth, and protection strategies, respectively. As an investor masters each tier, their confidence and convictions should grow, leading them to the next level. By design, Tier 1 is the most involved to establish, and yet, requires the least amount of time and energy to manage. Even successfully deploying the protection techniques of Tier 4 does not mean the mission is accomplished, it just means that an investor is now better prepared to handle the inevitable uncertainties that accompany any adventure into the unknown.
Table I.1 Four mission tiers.
Mission: To Outperform the …
Status Quo
Avg Investor
Avg Pro
Market
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
Tier 4
Build a Core Growth Portfolio
✓
✓
✓
✓
Core Management and Income from Covered Calls
✓
✓
✓
Managing Cash, Debt and Adding Stealth Growth
✓
✓
Adding Portfolio Protection
✓
“The real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes
but in having new eyes.”
—Marcel Proust, twentieth-century French novelist, critic, and essayist
No one should be more motivated to manage and care for your wealth than you. Whether investing $50K or $10M, this guide has been mindfully crafted for driven and discerning investors. We guide readers to build and manage more professionally a four-tiered portfolio, depending on the mission chosen. The guide highlights strategies, tactics, and tips to introduce ways to create value, whether improving performance, diminishing volatility, reducing costs, or eliminating undue risks and mistakes:
INVESTOR TIPS –
Investing ideas that can create value.
TRUE NORTH BEHAVIORS
– Behavioral adjustments that can improve decisions.
WISDOMS
– Sensible principles and values.
AT THE OASIS
– How the author deploys tactics or handle a situation.
INVESTOR CAUTIONS –
Be forewarned.
Included, as well, are URLs to definitions, resources, and articles for educational and reference purposes. This guide is intended for the investor who sincerely wants to improve their long-term investing journey.
If this introduction resonates, likely we share common beliefs:
Stocks allow investors to share ownership with some of the greatest intellects on earth.
In the short term, the markets are emotional. In the long term, they are highly predictable.
A diversified portfolio of North American stocks is a proxy for the global economy.
Consistently profitable businesses with healthy balance sheets and visionary leaders make better investments.
Not all corporations are sustainable. Pursuing prudent ESG standards starts at the top.
Every trade should incrementally enhance portfolio performance, reduce volatility, or diminish undue risks.
Contrarian practices render better results than following the crowd.
Risk management should be proactive and woven into every decision.
Quality stocks will survive even the worst of market purges.
Discipline, patience, and courage will influence results more than tactical trading.
As strategic weapons, cash and debt reserves should be deployed discerningly.
As in any of life's achievements, success requires effort, and is best accomplished one step at a time. The Investing Oasis is not a get-rich-quick scheme. The entire process is broken down into increments to introduce constructive ways to create value along the route. Better capital markets decisions will happen more consistently by staying focused on the path and learning to deploy thoughtful capital markets decisions. Control over anything but your own decisions is an illusion.
Becoming a better investor also requires learning how to make less bad decisions and practicing restraint. To achieve and retain success, accountability is a necessary part of personal growth, as is remaining humble when success periodically shines upon you.
Overall, investing is simple, but it requires mindful efforts. Whether we invest or not, the markets will continue to rise. Markets represent the progress of society. They reflect the accretive value of goods and services offered by publicly traded companies. An investor's biggest contribution of value to their portfolio is to use rigorous standards to find great companies, then deploy discipline to buy stocks at reasonable prices. The biggest mistakes come from second-guessing those decisions and following the crowd. When it comes to investing, being “market smart” means having a plan, deploying your strategy with discipline, and then patiently reaping the rewards.
“When setting out on a journey,
do not seek advice from those who have never left home.”
—Rumi, thirteenth-century Persian poet
Like hiring an experienced adventure guide, The Investing Oasis promises to steward an investor effectively and safely across the harsh investment terrain to a desired destination. Having already experienced this journey many times, everything shared genuinely reflects how I professionally manage the Oasis Growth Fund.
“Life is like a desert.
You only regret the oasis you let pass.”
—Arab proverb
The Investing Oasis intends to challenge each follower to become a better investor and, along the way, to become a better self. As an investor progresses toward their chosen destination, hopefully every stride will have counted. This guide is designed to help investors manage their money better, but it also hopes to raise awareness to becoming a better global citizen.
Since the capital markets are a direct reflection of the world writ large, how we invest matters just as much as how we consume. Socially responsible investing is a process that takes into consideration both an investment's financial return and its social, environmental, and ethical impacts. This places the onus on the investor to choose among corporations that are striving to do better. On the other hand, ESG is an evaluation and ranking of each stock based upon their collective social, environmental, and governance data. Together, an investment strategy mindful of socially responsible investment (SRI) factors and ESG standards can render influence on this precious planet. Although The Investing Oasis is just one investing style, the lessons embedded are timeless and can help an investor become a more mindful capital markets actor, as well as a more successful investor.
The philosophies of
The Investing Oasis
are the antithesis of day trading. No apologies.
There is no free lunch. Winning consistently comes from a convergence of intelligent, mindful, and disciplined decisions. Luck may occasionally be in play, but should be the icing, not the cake.
This guide does not reveal which stocks to buy. Its tenets rely on common sense and focuses on self-development to make better decisions.
It avoids the five DIY vices: quick wins, all-or-none trades, market timing, speculation, and undisciplined leveraging.
In a universe of unlimited investing techniques, it combines a series of individually proven methodologies into one coordinated game plan.
The focus is on building an effective portfolio of stocks. An investor should only invest in stocks if it is appropriate for their circumstances. Each reader's asset mix decision is personal (i.e. stocks, fixed income, cash, real estate, and alternative investments).
Every reader will interpret the information and recommendations uniquely. As such, there is no perfect way to deploy a portfolio. Outcomes will vary; however, the majority of readers should expect improvements from the status quo.
I only invest in stocks because I buy to hold them for the long term. Historically, stocks have consistently outperformed fixed income securities (i.e. bonds) over 10+ years. However, fixed income securities could be beneficial to support an investor's lower degree of risk tolerance or when a pending obligation has a specific time horizon, for which a specific term and assuredness of capital would be paramount.
The only advice offered in
The Investing Oasis
is to seek professional advice when a personal situation requires perspective, skills, or tools beyond the reader's capacity.
Before moving forward, it's possible that a professional may already be keeping you on track. This guide is not intended to disrupt a trusted relationship. Instead, if acting upon ideas presented in this guide, it could even enhance this rapport.
By becoming a more engaged investor, it might help to better appreciate the challenges facing an Advisor as they manage some, or the bulk, of your wealth. Being on the firing line of the capital markets and making critical decisions should reinforce the benefits of building a prudent portfolio.
Managing some of your own capital, however, is also not intended to be in competition with the Advisor. Though there could be overlaps in investment choices, the strategies deployed likely should steer in different directions. As in most long-distance treks, there are merits to exploring alternative routes to arrive at the eventual destination.
“The fears we don't face become our limits.”
—Robin Sharma, Canadian author of The Monk Who Sold His Ferrari
With respect to investment matters, this guide assumes that the financial professional has dutifully established themself as their client's primary service provider. Yet, despite pledging their trust, many clients still tend to “dabble” in the markets. While they may relish the thrill of participation, without a plan, unstructured investing could be a costly form of self-education.
With the markets already being ill-defined and uncertain, an investor pursuing day-trading tactics may unwittingly convert high-probability, high-quality assets into speculation. In other words, by relying on a relatively monolithic plan with the blunt tool of day trading, they add to the riskiness of the marketplace and to their wealth. Since the behavior gap is a very persistent problem, investors could improve upon the status quo with modest effort.
This guide has been purposefully crafted to complement and enhance a professional's value proposition. While mentoring requires patient stewardship, the process of building a client's investing acumen may be unduly cumbersome for the professional, along with their other duties and responsibilities. As such, the educational approach delivered by The Investing Oasis is intended to be a valued extension of the professional's hand.
From the perspective of a fellow experienced professional, The Investing Oasis offers a structured plan combined with insights, education, investing tips, and refined portfolio management techniques. We even outline ways to avoid unnecessary risks and identify where self-inflicted behaviors and mistakes could become problematic. Generally, investors are guided to act within their levels of competency and risk tolerance. The primary goal of this guide is to improve the odds of a more successful DIY journey.
As written, the desert metaphor implies a journey fraught with perpetual dangers and temptations where only the occasional oasis may offer respite.
As one such refuge, The Investing Oasis provides the foundation and guidance from which an investor can launch the next leg of their journey. To the financial professional, The Investing Oasis offers four potential benefits:
Better-educated clients make for more productive meetings.
This guide is designed as an educational support tool to enhance capital markets decisions and discussions rendering more effective meetings.
Appreciation.
Going DIY could save on professional fees, yet poor execution may quickly squander this advantage. With clients undertaking front-line investment decisions, this guide could improve their capital markets savvy and render an appreciation of the challenges faced by the Advisor.
Extending a professional's marketing initiatives.
With easy access to discount platforms and questionable social media influences, many clients are already being exposed and attracted to the DIY concept.
The Investing Oasis
can help to distinguish the financial professional as caring beyond the direct services provided. DIY investing and professional services need not be mutually exclusive.
One full chapter is dedicated to improving the client-professional relationship.
The features and benefits of working with a financial professional are highlighted in
Chapter 6
, including how to measure their value proposition and how to improve this relationship. All good relationships require a healthy feedback loop.
Realistically, The Investing Oasis is not for every client. Yet, for those destined to DIY, or even as a timeless educational platform for their children, it can enhance and extend a professional's overall value proposition across generations. This guide is intended as an investment into both the long-term well-being of your clients and that of your practice. Engaged clients are likely to be more satisfied clients.
1
Housel, M. (2020).
The Psychology of Money
. Petersfield, Hampshire: Harriman House Ltd.
2
King, B. (2014). 9,096 Stars in the Sky—Is that All?
https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-blogs/how-many-stars-night-sky-09172014/
(Accessed 11 December 2021).
3
Dalbar QAIB 2020 Report (Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior).
4
The behavior gap is the difference between investment returns when an investor makes rational decisions and those generated under the influence of our emotions.
*
The Oasis Growth Fund is one of a trust series powered by Fieldhouse Pro Funds Inc. in Yaletown, British Columbia, Canada.
5
https://www.finra.org/registration-exams-ce/qualification-exams/securities-industry-essentials-exam
6
https://www.csi.ca/student/en_ca/courses/csi/csc_enrol.xhtml?gclid=Cj0KEQjw8-LnBRCyxtfMl-Cbu48BEiQA6eUMGqqaonl83q40IOMkamRs4wT2dClYQzay8xEH_I2OIdUaAlag8P8HAQ
7
Housel, M. (2020).
The Psychology of Money
. Petersfield, Hampshire: Harriman House Ltd.
Figure I.2 Overview
You are about to begin a journey into the relative unknown. The capital markets are all around us, yet they are nuanced and elusive to comprehend. Even if you've been investing for generations, the investment dunes shift with the wind, signposts disappear, and the risks are continually mutating. The market, at best, is uncertain and, at worst, can be downright vicious. Undertaking a lone trek through one of the most inhospitable environments on planet earth with a storm perpetually hovering on the horizon can be wealth-threatening and intimidating. Which path to take? In what to invest? In whom to trust? How to protect oneself? Questions abound.
Most investors could benefit from a respite at this oasis to review the road map and measure their options before relaunching the mission. Whether this is the very beginning, or a pause on your route, the time will be well invested.
“Victorious warriors win first, then go to war. Defeated warriors go to war, seeking to win.”
—Sun Tzu (544–496 BCE), The Art of War
Preparing for the investing trek ahead.
Building a resilient portfolio capable of generating above-average returns requires taking a holistic approach with a focus on simplicity and common sense. Figure 1.1 is an adaptation inspired by Morgan Housel's “Hierarchy of Competency” in his book The Psychology of Money.1 Through extensive research, he concluded investors should establish a foundation before attempting to tackle more complex layers of investing competency.
This adaptation has been evolved into a hierarchy of six areas where investors can actively create real value by heeding better practices. Since each investment is a series of micro-decisions leading up to a final negotiation in the capital markets arena, to get the most out of that next trade requires a thoughtful process. Time and experience usually improve our capital markets decision-making. However, the “behavior gap,” a term coined by advisor, columnist, and author Carl Richards, is the chronic long-term underperformance realized by investors relative to the market due to erratic human decisions confounded by our emotions.
Figure 1.1 Hierarchy of portfolio value creation. Adapted from https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/07/09/needs.aspx (Accessed 23 January 2019).
The pyramid in Figure 1.1 is in ascending order of relevance to the investing process. The relative size of each layer reveals the potential for investors to create value through improved personal decisions.
Being a consistently good investor requires having a plan, learning to distill valued information, using the right tools, deploying good judgment, and then holding to your convictions during the darkest hours. In escalating order of competency, here are the six areas where mindful actions can create real enhancements to building and managing a portfolio. Note that the top layer (Tax Planning) should be undertaken with a trusted professional.
The Asset Mix
Investing starts with determining the asset mix. According to research by Vanguard, the asset mix decision influences nearly 90% of a portfolio's returns and the degree of volatility. Historically, the more capital allocated to owning stocks, the higher the expected long-term returns. The trade-off is having to accept an increased range of short-term uncertainty. While the asset mix may not be top of mind, it's a starting point and everything else flows from there. Chapter 4 addresses setting an appropriate asset mix.
Good Capital Markets Behavior
Getting consistently reliable results has very little to do with picking a hot stock. Making the right allocation decisions requires research and perspective. Better decisions come from triangulation (using multiple sources to confirm a decision), patience, and having the confidence to stick to your plan. Poor capital markets behavior stems from spontaneous trading. The greatest improvements often come from simple behavioral changes. Chapters 2, 5, 14, and 20 outline ways to either improve capital markets behavior or to circumvent our behavior through proactive trading.
Portfolio Design and Management
Portfolio design should not be an afterthought. Chapters 11, 12, and 15 introduce effective methods to construct and manage a holistic portfolio with purpose.
Security Selection
A portfolio of winning stocks does not happen randomly. Choosing securities should be a thoughtful process centered around good investing principles. Historically, a portfolio of quality stocks has always been capable of withstanding the worst volatility. Yet this requires having confidence in the market and conviction in your security choices. Chapters 7–10 present 16 filters to help find quality growth stocks.
Trading
Deploying a trade is only one part of the investing process. Unfortunately, on average, high-volume trading tactics are relied upon too heavily to create wealth. As a retail investor's sole interface with the capital markets, trading requires our best, objective behavior to negotiate consistently good results. Those who rely primarily on trading instincts face three serious disadvantages:
Efficient algorithms dominate trading.
Certain trading sites allow “market makers” to intercept retail trades, potentially adding to trading costs. The claim is that they are improving the market liquidity. It's not fair, but it is legal.
Emotions and impatience frequently cloud our judgment. Achieving consistently successful trades requires purposeful and principled decisions. Trading “bots” can analyze reams of data in nanoseconds before pouncing on retail trading mistakes. The human brain can barely handle one trade per minute. That's hardly a fair fight.
“The more active you are as an investor, the worse you will do.”
— Meir Statman, author of Behavioral Finance: The Second Generation
Chapters 14, 15, and 20 introduce proactive and contrarian trading techniques to force the algorithms to meet you on your terms. When deploying trades, “less is more.”
Costs
DIY investors are not exposed to the cost structure that professionals face. Therefore, they already have a built-in advantage. “Portfolio Turnover” on the companion website2 addresses how to measure and retain this strategic advantage.
According to Morgan Housel, investing without first having mastered good investor behavior could undermine the entire investing experience. Investors tend to spend too much time chasing stocks and generally mismanaging the rest of their value-creating opportunities. Coveted education and refined investment skills can be wholly unraveled without thoughtful planning, applying purposeful, risk-measured decisions, and a commitment to self-development.
For experienced investors, though, this doesn't mean starting over. If satisfied with the results to date, stay the course. But where the status quo is no longer acceptable, here are four fundamental ways that this guide can be useful:
Purposeful Design
– Through step-by-step education and relevant examples, investors will learn to construct a well-founded portfolio and learn how to deploy more effective trades.
Graduated Steps
– Four tiers of increasing challenge and value creation are presented, depending on which level of mission an investor desires to undertake. Each chapter progressively builds upon the knowledge and methods of the previous.
Shared Methods
– I “walk the talk” and accurately share my portfolio management methods, tactics, and strategies.
Increased Behavior Awareness
–
The Investing Oasis
identifies where adjustments in behavior could improve performance results, diminish risks, or introduce ways to circumvent the investing challenges altogether.
