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J. T. Mason

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Beschreibung

A guided journey revealing hidden values and buried treasures while negotiating the investing landscape. A metaphorical journey through the hot, shifting sands of the capital markets 'desert' to awaken readers to the urgency of the "Behavior Gap"--a chronic gap of under-performance relative to the markets experienced by investors worldwide. This is a roadmap of portfolio management concepts and contrarian tactics that can turn misbehaviors, undue risks, and short-term gambles into longer-term strengths. Through 27 chapters and four tiers, the author progressively introduces more powerful tools & techniques used in the founding and ongoing management of the Oasis Growth Fund, a North American Hedge Fund.

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Table of Contents

Cover

Title Page

Copyright

Dedication

About the Author

List of Abbreviations

Introduction

Who Might Benefit?

For DIY Investors

Choosing a Mission

CAVEATS

In Respect of Your Advisor

For Financial Planners, Advisors, and Family Offices

Notes

FOUNDATION

Chapter 1: Eyes Wide Open

Hierarchy of Creating Value with Investing

Better Behavior Beats Brains

Consumer, Dabbler, Gambler, Capitalist, or Investor?

Retail Investing – Three Alternatives

Notes

Chapter 2: Choosing the Right Path

The Behavior Gap

Capital Markets Behavior: What Works? What Doesn't?

Choosing a Path

Setting Expectations

Notes

Chapter 3: Risk 101

Building Perspectives

Fear

Risk Management Plan (RMP) Overview

RMP #1 : Establishing Risk Perspectives

Winning with Market Corrections

Accountability Creates Value

Notes

Chapter 4: Setting the Asset Mix

Reviewing Personal Risk

RMP #2 : Determining Financial Capacity

RMP #3 : Assessing Risk Tolerance

RMP #4 : Calculating a Required Rate of Return

RMP #5 : Setting the Asset Mix

Notes

Chapter 5: Firming Our “Backbone”

Keeping It Simple

Introducing the “Three Brains”

Harnessing the “Three Brains”

Building Backbone

Notes

Chapter 6: The Case for a Planner/Advisor

A Professional Backstop

Planner vs. Advisor

Performing an Annual Assessment

Going DIY

Best of Three Worlds: The Hybrid Model

Notes

Foundation Comments

THE INVESTING OASIS: Tier 1

Chapter 7: The Oasis Growth Fund (OGF) Model

Choose Your “Camels” Well

RMP #6: Filtering for Quality Stocks

Eight Steps to Designing a Core Growth Portfolio

Step 1. Designing a Purposeful Portfolio: Setting the Investment Policy

Notes

Chapter 8: Stock Selection

Step 2. Designing a Purposeful Portfolio: Six Quantitative Filters

Step 3. Designing a Purposeful Portfolio: Deploying a Stock Screening Platform

Notes

Chapter 9: Stock Selection

RMP #7: Profiling for Stock Performance and Volatility Traits

Step 4. Designing a Purposeful Portfolio: Profiling a Stock's Character

Step 5. Designing a Purposeful Portfolio: Choosing a Stock Research Platform

Notes

Chapter 10: Stock Selection

Step 6. Designing a Purposeful Portfolio: Four Qualitative Screens

Investing with Purpose

Notes

Chapter 11: Stock Selection

RMP #8: 3+ Degrees of Diversification

Step 7. Designing a Purposeful Portfolio: Diversification Techniques

Prioritization of Diversification

Notes

Chapter 12: Portfolio Construction

Step 8. Designing a Purposeful Portfolio: Equal Allocation

Advantages of an Equal-Weighted Portfolio

Final Steps

Note

Chapter 13: Beware Those Temptations

Wandering Spirits Beware

RMP #9: Speculation and Leverage

The Discretionary

The Good

The Bad

The Ugly

Summary

Notes

Tier 1 Summary

THE INVESTING OASIS: Tier 2

Chapter 14: The Buy-in

Trading Challenges

Lump Sum

Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA)

Selling Put Contracts – A Wiser Buy-in (for More Advanced Investors)

Sentiment Indicators

Buy-in Checklist

10 Smarter Trading Tips

Notes

Chapter 15: Contrarian Rebalancing

RMP #10: Rebalancing

Acting Contrarian

Relative Strength Indicators (RSIs)

Benefits of Rebalancing

Notes

Chapter 16: A Hidden Well of Income

RMP #11: Income and Protection with Covered Calls

Non-critical Risk

Covered Call Tactics

Notes

Tier 2 Summary

THE INVESTING OASIS: Tier 3

Chapter 17: Warren B – The Ultimate Contrarian

Becoming a Contrarian

Rejecting the Behavior Gap

Principles and Behaviors of the “Wise One”

Become a Contrarian

Note

Chapter 18: Contrarian Cash and Leverage

RMP #12: Four Steps to Effective Cash Management

Seven Steps to Effective Debt Management

Notes

Chapter 19: Digging for Buried Treasures

Sell High, Buy Low

Let the Hunt Begin

Effective Management of a Portfolio of Puts

X Marks the Spot

Notes

Chapter 20: Emotion-free Selling

Selling Protocols

The Essence of Capitulation

Emotion-Free Selling

Notes

Tier 3 Summary

THE INVESTING OASIS: Tier 4

Chapter 21: “Storm” Forecasting

RMP #13: “Weather” Forecasting

Market Sentiment Indicators

The Ultimate Wisdom of the Stock Market

Notes

Chapter 22: “Rounding Up the Camels”

RMP #14: Prepping for the “Storm”

“Rounding Up the Camels”

Getting Reinvested

Storm: Post-Mortem

Notes

Chapter 23: Portfolio Protection

Portfolio Insurance 101

RMP #15: Profiting from the Panic

Insurance Decisions

Four Hedging Solutions

Profiting from Panic

Notes

Tier 4 Summary

Chapter 24: Putting It All Together

“All In”

Value-Creating Processes

Better Capital Markets Behavior

Risk Management

Capital Markets Expectations

Notes

Chapter 25: The Next-Gen Financial System

The Metaverse

Blockchain Technology

Digital Coins/Cryptocurrencies

Borderless, Frictionless, Timeless, and Fairer

Notes

Chapter 26: A Case for Active Management

The OASIS Growth Fund

Note

Chapter 27: Tools and Resources

Investing Education

Resource Triangulation

Three Thoughts about Second Opinions

Discount Trading Platforms

Well of the Wise: References, Studies, Books, and Authors

Portfolio Time Management

Notes

About the Website

Index

End User License Agreement

List of Tables

Introduction

Table I.1 Four mission tiers.

Chapter 3

Table 3.1 89-year S&P history.

Chapter 4

Table 4.1 Financial capacity test.

Table 4.2 Missouri risk tolerance key.

Table 4.3 Intangible risk tolerance adjustments.

Table 4.4 93 years of market data from NYU.

Table 4.5 Asset mix projections.

Chapter 6

Table 6.1 CFA investor rights.

Table 6.2 Advisor test ranking.

Chapter 7

Table 7.1 The Oasis Growth Fund investment policy.

Chapter 10

Table 10.1 Annualized Performance S&P 500 vs. S&P 500 ESG.

Chapter 11

Table 11.1 Berkshire Hathaway top five holdings (as at March 31, 2022).

Table 11.2 Sector allocation of the S&P 500 Index as at July 30, 2020.

Chapter 12

Table 12.1 Equal-weighted portfolio allocations.

Chapter 14

Table 14.1 TTD sample put-selling comparison.

Chapter 15

Table 15.1 Material vs. non-material matters.

Chapter 16

Table 16.1 Call contract choices.

Chapter 19

Table 19.1 Material vs. non-material matters.

Table 19.2 Options contract parameters.

Table 19.3 OTM example.

Table 19.4 ATM example.

Table 19.4 Align Technology assessment.

Chapter 21

Table 21.1 Market mayhem 1946–2020

Chapter 22

Table 22.1 Market mayhem 1946–2020.

Chapter 23

Table 23.1 Temporary and structured insurance solutions.

Table 23.2 Setting up a VIX call spread collar (fence).

Chapter 24

Table 24.1 Four tiers of value creation.

Chapter 27

Table 27.1 Referenced studies, books, and authors.

List of Illustrations

Introduction

Figure I.1 Overview of the stages of purposeful portfolio management.

Chapter 1

Figure 1.1 Hierarchy of portfolio value creation. Adapted from https://www.f...

Figure 1.2 Investing vs. gambling.

Chapter 2

Figure 2.1 The behavior gap.

Figure 2.2 Investors are buying high and selling low.

Figure 2.3 S&P 500 Index rolling returns (1973–2021).

Figure 2.4 Annualized price returns for the S&P 500 Index (1996–2016).

Figure 2.5 Timing the market is futile.

Figure 2.6

The Investing Oasis

expected portfolio performance.

Chapter 3

Figure 3.1 Bulls vs. Bears 1996–2021.

Chapter 4

Figure 4.1 Return/risk spectrum.

Figure 4.2 Annual returns history for a portfolio of 100% fixed income.

Figure 4.3 Performance history for a portfolio of 100% fixed income.

Figure 4.4 Annual returns history for a portfolio of stocks.

Figure 4.5 Performance history for a portfolio of 100% stocks.

Chapter 7

Figure 7.1 Equity style box.

Figure 7.2 Total returns of individual stocks vs. Russell 3000 Index.

Figure 7.3 Stock selection filters (1–9).

Figure 7.4 Stock selection filters (10–16).

Figure 7.5 Venn diagram summary of 16 stock selection filters.

Chapter 8

Figure 8.1 Oasis Growth Fund geographic revenue as of March 31, 2021.

Figure 8.2 Optimal investing zone.

Figure 8.3 Align Technologies Inc. revenue & earnings (2016–2019).

Chapter 9

Figure 9.1 Sample portfolio performance profile data.

Chapter 10

Figure 10.1 ESG categories of assessment.

Chapter 11

Figure 11.1 Correlation coefficient scale.

Figure 11.2 Five-year correlation coefficient matrix.

Chapter 12

Figure 12.1 Summary of stock selection filters.

Figure 12.2 Outperformance of an equal-weight index.

Chapter 13

Figure 13.1 The asset zones of the reward/risk spectrum.

Figure 13.2 BetaPro S&P 500 Daily Inverse ETF.

Chapter 14

Figure 14.1 Buffett indicator.

Figure 14.3 Monthly Insider Buy/Sell Ratio vs. SPY as at Oct 2021.

Figure 14.4 Suggested stock purchase methods.

Chapter 16

Figure 16.1 MSFT options chain.

Chapter 18

Figure 18.1 Chasing performance.

Figure 18.2 USD margin loan rates comparison.

Chapter 19

Figure 19.1 Apple options chain as at May 2020.

Figure 19.2 Five-year Apple share price history with deployment of options c...

Figure 19.3 Premium Brands Holdings options chain as at May 2020.

Figure 19.4 Five-year Premium Brands Holdings share price history with deplo...

Figure 19.5 Align options chain as at May 2020.

Figure 19.6 Five-year Align Technology share price history with deployment o...

Figure 19.7 Speculative put-selling decision flowchart.

Figure 19.8 Put ladder timeline.

Chapter 21

Figure 21.1 S&P 500 Index relative to forward P/E ratio.

Figure 21.2 VIX Index vs. S&P 500 since 1990.

Chapter 22

Figure 22.1 Various sources of portfolio volatility.

Chapter 23

Figure 23.1 VIX Index vs. S&P 500 Index.

Figure 23.2 16-Step Risk Management pyramid.

Chapter 24

Figure 24.1 Risk mitigation techniques.

Figure 24.2

The Investing Oasis

expected portfolio performance overview.

Chapter 27

Figure 27.1 Investing tools and resources.

Figure 27.2 Portfolio time management.

Foundation

Figure I.2 Overview

Guide

Cover

Title Page

Copyright

Dedication

About the Author

List of Abbreviations

Introduction

Table of Contents

Begin Reading

About the Website

Index

End User License Agreement

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THE INVESTING OASIS

 

Contrarian Treasure in the Capital Markets Desert

 

 

 

J.T. Mason

 

 

 

Copyright © 2023 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey.

Published simultaneously in Canada.

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (978) 750-8400, fax (978) 750-4470, or on the web at www.copyright.com. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, (201) 748-6011, fax (201) 748-6008, or online at http://www.wiley.com/go/permission.

Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a professional where appropriate. Further, readers should be aware that websites listed in this work may have changed or disappeared between when this work was written and when it is read. Neither the publisher nor authors shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages.

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Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats. Some content that appears in print may not be available in electronic formats. For more information about Wiley products, visit our web site atwww.wiley.com.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Names: Mason, J. T. (Jay T.), author.

Title: The investing oasis : contrarian treasure in the capital markets desert / J. T. Mason.

Description: Hoboken, New Jersey : Wiley, [2023] | Includes index.

Identifiers: LCCN 2022008582 (print) | LCCN 2022008583 (ebook) | ISBN 9781119871088 (cloth) | ISBN 9781119871101 (adobe pdf) | ISBN 9781119871095 (epub)

Subjects: LCSH: Investments. | Portfolio management.

Classification: LCC HG4521 .M347 2022 (print) | LCC HG4521 (ebook) | DDC 332.6–dc23/eng/20220329

LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2022008582

LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2022008583

Cover Design: Paul McCarthy

Cover Art: Sky: © Getty Images | Romanovskyy

Desert: © Shutterstock | USTAS7777777

Photo: John C. Watson / IMPS

 

As her favorite “investment guy,” my mother supported my career by willingly moving her funds between institutions with each progressive step. Yet, even into her failing years, she extended trust to allow me to manage her wealth in her better interests. Through good and bad markets, if she ever worried, I never heard about it.

The Investing Oasis is dedicated to Mollie, who taught me that “integrity” is “Doing the right thing, particularly when no one's watching.”

In loving embrace

Marjorie (Mollie) Edith MasonSource: Author

I must also thank the other members of Team 2.2: Jasmine and her Duru Indi.

Both have been integral in this journey. Their patience and wisdom have both inspired and conspired to render me a better man. Love to you both.

About the Author

Jay T. Mason, CFA®, CFP® is a Portfolio Manager registered with Fieldhouse Capital Management in Vancouver, Canada. He has 25+ years of progressive asset management experience with several major Canadian investment management firms. In 2012, he took a sabbatical to re-evaluate his role in an industry deserving of greater innovation. Through the combination of new technology, business experience, and following his convictions, the Oasis Growth Fund was launched.

“If you don't live for something, you'll die for nothing.”

—unknown

List of Abbreviations

ACB

adjusted cost base

ADR

American Depository Receipt

AIF

alternative investment funds

AML

anti-money laundering

ATM

at-the-money

BPS

bear put spread

CC

covered call

CBCD

central bank digital currency

CRRCFF  

correlation coefficient

DAO

distributive autonomous organization

DIY

do-it-yourself

DCA

dollar-cost averaging

D/E

debt-to-equity ratio

DRIP

dividend reinvestment plan

EBITDA

earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization

ESG

environmental, social, and governance

ETF

exchange-traded fund

FMV

fair market value

FOMO

fear of missing out

FORTH

fill outside of regular trading hours

FOSS

fear of a sinking ship

GICS

global industry classification standard

GTC

good 'til canceled

HNW

high-net-worth

IPO

initial public offering

IPS

investment policy statement

ITM

in-the-money

KYC

know your client

MACD

moving average convergence divergence

M&A

mergers and acquisitions

MER

management expense ratio

NFT

non-fungible token

OCC

Options Clearing Corporation

OGF

Oasis Growth Fund

OTM

out-of-the-money

P/E

price/earnings ratio

PFOF

payment-for-order-flow

PRI

principles for responsible investing

QARP

quality at a reasonable price

R&D

research and development

REIT

real estate investment trust

RMP

risk management plan

ROE

return on equity

RoR

rate of return

RSI

Relative Strength Index

RTH

regular trading hours

SaaS

software-as-a-service

SD

standard deviation

SDG

sustainable investment goal

SL

stop-loss order

SP

strike price

SPAC

special purpose acquisition corporation

SRI

socially responsible investments

TR

turnover ratio

TSL

trailing stop-loss order

VIX

CBOE volatility index

VP

value proposition

Introduction

“Investing is not just the study of finance. It's the study of how people behave with money.”

—Morgan Housel, The Psychology of Money1

Gazing up at the nighttime sky in the heart of the desert is nothing short of awe-inspiring. Across the horizon in all directions, stars brilliantly taunt our imagination. Despite that scientists estimate there are about 200 × 1024 stars in the universe (two hundred thousand million million millon), Dorrit Hoffleit of Yale University used mathematical modeling to determine that the naked eye can only see about 9,096 stars on a cloudless night without the impingement of city lights.2 Don't bother counting, but like the desert nomads for centuries, just a few of the salient stars and constellations were required to accurately aid their navigation across the formless deserts. The night sky has always been nature's most trustworthy GPS.

While metaphorically comparing a nomad's journey across a barren desert to investing in the capital markets may seem obtuse, there are many relevant lessons to be derived:

That any long-term quest, let alone one that lasts a lifetime, requires planning, a road map, and the right resources.

That hidden in the sand dunes are life-sustaining wells of investing opportunities and treasures to be discovered. But how far afield to stray before the dangers outweigh the rewards?

That learning to read nature's subtle signs could improve an investor's fate.

That, to best navigate across unknown, hostile territory, success is more often aligned with following true North Star behaviors.

That time spent exploring, overcoming challenges, and self-reflecting can lead to unexpected rewards.

Before launching into the pragmatics of investing, however, consider redefining your mission. Matching self-awareness with ambitions is a key to finding success in life, no matter the pursuit. By understanding the capital markets universe better and where your limits are, the journey will be clearer and easier.

Investors are awakening. “Do-it-yourself” (DIY) investing has come of age. Across all sociodemographic cohorts, investors globally are stepping up to test their mettle in the markets. Unrelenting advances in technology, access to refined data, analytics, and commission-free trading now offer unlimited opportunities for retail investors to enrich themselves. All in the comfort of the home.

According to a survey conducted by the Ontario Securities Commission, 60% of retail investors are men. Yet investing is more urgent for women because of pay inequities in the workplace, a subversion of their productive careers to look after family matters, and a longer life expectancy. The DIY movement affords women the possibility to pursue an investing agenda on their terms.

Whether supplementing day jobs (or lost jobs) with trading wins or fearing to miss out on next-gen IPOs or even being seduced by gamified trading platforms, the reasons for participation are varied. An unexpected outcome from the 2020–2021 pandemic was an increase in social investing activism. Most notably, in early 2021, a titanic struggle ensued between a cabal of retail investors coordinated through the social investing sub-Reddit site “WallStreetBets.” To everyone's surprise, in the spring of 2020, the “Davids” were able to strike enough merciless blows against the “Goliaths,” forcing several billionaire vulture capitalist firms to the brink of bankruptcy. Melvin Capital, for one, was forced to borrow $3B from fellow venture capitalists just to keep the firm solvent.

The power of investing is democracy in action. And with growing numbers, the network of retail investors is taking on real power. Every trade can be a vote for change. The Fourth Industrial Revolution (digital) is on our doorstep: AR/VR, EV, 3D printing, 5G/6G phones, IoT devices, AI and robotics, the genome project, autonomous vehicles, drone deliveries, SpaceX, and the renewable energy revolution are some of the many ways an investor can choose to participate. Further, in the interest toward building a more sustainable world, environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards are now more relevant factors of analysis in making better investment decisions.

At this stage, are you prepared to make serious investment decisions that will influence the future of this planet? Ultimately, the best reasons to embrace mindful investing should be to assure a viable personal financial future while supporting businesses seeking to create a better world.

With more than 1 million retail accounts being opened monthly, the capital markets are undergoing a renaissance offering:

Easier access to unlimited research and low-cost trading platforms.

The growth of social investing communities.

Unlimited investment choices, including the fractionalization of assets and IPOs.

No time-wasting bureaucracy.

Zero trading fees and no professional fees.

Access to global exchanges and after-markets trading.

So, like the start to any grand adventure, market-beating fantasies are easily conjured.

Yet, according to Dalbar,3 the leading US independent investment behavior research firm, over a period of 30 years ending 12/31/2018, the average investor lagged the passive S&P 500 index by a margin of 1.51%, annually. Even with a commission-free advantage, this underperformance has remained chronic for decades.

Like it or not, short-term trading is a zero-sum game. For every winner, there will be a loser. And despite holding many strategic advantages relative to the pros, retail investors are generally underprepared to tackle the capital markets head-on. While there are many unique ways an investment journey can get bogged down, the more common themes are:

No plan

– Without a plan, weak convictions and poor diversification get exposed during market corrections, often inducing needless sacrificial selling. It's how an investor acts during difficult times that will define their ultimate success.

No limits

– Making good decisions requires building perspective. Without accountability or guidelines, only an investor's conscience will keep them on a good trajectory. Too many choices without trading discipline can lead to buying on breakouts and selling on breakdowns. Prioritizing principles over profits could lead to better outcomes.

Attention deficit disorder

– Following too many pundits, a short attention span, and easy access to trading technology can entice a long-term investor into higher-risk decisions. Accelerated trading essentially converts solid, long-term investments into short-term gambles, while also increasing the costs.

Emotions

– Passion is the greatest destroyer of wealth. It can seduce us into action against all common sense. At the extremes, greed is just the alter ego of fear (FOMO). Reactive trading never ends well. However, the “behavior gap”

4

can be dramatically reduced and even eliminated without having to overtly change an investor's behavior.

The Rise of AI

– Machine learning algorithms are now responsible for 70% of all trades. Per second, any one algorithm will perform thousands of transactions. Humans can deploy about one per minute. Equally, as emotive creatures, we are prone to making cognitive errors that serve to feed price inefficiencies to these AI programs. Learning to trade proactively can help individual investors minimize the disadvantages.

“Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory.

Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.”

—Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Running headlong into trading stocks, though, is not for the faint of heart. In the capital markets desert, the signs are subtle, dangers abound, and the treasures are hidden. An investment warrior needs to keep their wits about them and to have the right resources to ensure a successful journey.

Unfortunately, there are no havens. While the day-to-day markets are notoriously fickle and sometimes downright frightening, these are the least of an investor's worries. The greater dangers lie within. In between an investor and every trading decision lies their emotions. Greed and fear are in a constant duel, yet both are compounded when intertwined with unduly risky assets and the combustion of leverage.

In an environment of such high stress and competition, to win more consistently requires a more conscious effort. There are no signposts to warn of the dangers. Staying safely on the path requires discipline. Every trade is a negotiation. Both investors won’t be right.

“A funny thing about the stock market is that

every time one person buys, another sells,

and both think they are astute.”

—William Feather (1889–1981), publisher and author

Admittedly, the markets are rigged, but not for the conspiracy reasons proffered by social media. Given the test of time, they have overcome every calamity humankind could ever invent and yet, they continue to rise. This is a deeply underappreciated characteristic about investing. Too many live in fear of the markets because they listen to the unwise and the fearmongers, or they just don't yet know enough about themselves. The beauty of the capital markets desert is seeing beyond the sunset and believing that the sunrise will once again arrive. So goes life, so go the markets.

And along this investing journey are scattered many of the secrets to investing success. Some are obvious but little practiced, while others are overlooked due to inexperience or need of education. A patient, mindful contrarian, however, will likely unearth more of these treasures.

Through The Investing Oasis, the investor will learn just as much as necessary to competently carry out their desired mission. The pathway to these choices will be laid out soon enough.

The Investing Oasis is a dynamic, long-term plan as deployed by the author in a fund called the Oasis Growth Fund (OGF),* an actively managed, equal-weight, North American hedge fund (see Chapter 26).

This guide is organized into the following sections:

A foundation/discovery process

Four tiers of purposeful portfolio management techniques

A summary

Together, they introduce progressively more constructive ways to augment performance, mitigate volatility, diminish risks, reduce mistakes, and control costs. The essential focus is to improve the DIY investing experience.

Let the journey begin.

The Looking Glass

Warts and all, there is no one else to blame. The market is the market. Self-reflection and self-improvement should be integral to every investor's mission.

Focus on improving the process and oneself. The results will come.

Figure I.1 Overview of the stages of purposeful portfolio management.

Figure I.1 is an overview of the multiple processes and steps involved in designing and managing an effective growth portfolio.

The founding principle practiced throughout The Investing Oasis is “integrity”: “walking the talk.” All concepts shared are principled, purposeful, and practiced professionally by the author. This guide is written logically and pragmatically to provide an easy-to-follow “road map,” integrated along with a behavioral compass to guide investors toward making better risk-measured, capital markets decisions. Together, these provide a guiding hand to methodically build and manage a portfolio, yet with flexibility for investors to explore. Research ideas, suggested tools, investing insights, and trading tips are all woven together with proven portfolio management techniques.

Authoring The Investing Oasis has been a personal undertaking analogous to the hero's journey that most investors face. Navigating the capital markets is hard enough, let alone doing it solo.

The Investing Oasis brings to light many valuable wealth-creating processes:

Crafting a holistic, four-tiered portfolio.

Adoption of select professional practices.

Deployment of proactive trading techniques and behaviors.

Learning to seize alpha-generating opportunities as they arise.

Reduction of undue risk exposures.

Diminishment of costly behaviors.

Learning to skew the “desertscape” to your favor.

Learning to read the market weathervane.

“Storm-proofing” a portfolio for market turbulence.

Setting up portfolio protection techniques.

Learning the benefits of being a better capital markets actor.

Traveling solo is always a chance to get to know oneself better. We grow by being open to alternative routes, learning new skills, broadening our horizons, and even coming to terms with our limitations. Yet it is only during times of challenge and stress that we truly discover ourselves. The stock market is one of the few arenas of open conflict that accepts all players, equally. Yet too many investors enter the fray too casually without regard for the intensity of conflict to be expected or the negotiation skills required. Following The Investing Oasis road map and guidance should improve the odds of a successful journey.

After a progressive career spanning 25 years at several major wealth management firms, I have codified the knowledge and skills of my own journey into The Investing Oasis.

Who Might Benefit?

At heart, this investing blueprint should appeal to active, risk-tolerant investors willing to do research, willing to deploy contrarian tactics, and seeking rewards that exceed a passive, low-cost indexing strategy. Those who might benefit most are:

New investors

seeking to begin their journey on the right foot.

Practiced investors

open to recalibrating and refining their investment plan.

Investment Advisors

promoting prudent practices to clients already “dabbling” in the markets.

To create an effective learning process, the chapters are written sequentially and progressively. Each is constructed with a clear objective, a presentation of the challenges, followed by pragmatic solutions and methodologies as deployed in the Oasis Growth Fund, followed by a summary.

Those who prioritize risk-taking and quick returns are less likely to benefit from this guide.

Beneficial Education:

The Securities Industry Essentials Exam

5

offered by FINRA in the US, or

The Canadian Securities Course

6

offered by the Canadian Securities Institute

In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio

by Professors Andrew W. Lo and Stephen R. Foerster.

Interviews with 10 academic scions in search of the perfect portfolio.

The Intelligent Investor

by Ben Graham.

Chapter 27

offers a list of educational materials which are quoted or resourced throughout this guide.

“If you were given six hours to chop down a tree,

Take four hours to sharpen your axe.”

—Albert Einstein (1879–1955)

For DIY Investors

“Your lifetime performance as an investor will mostly be determined by what you do during wild times.”

—Morgan Housel, The Psychology of Money7

The Most Competitive Arena on Earth

Before engaging in any major competition, whether sports, investing, or war, it is critical to understand your own skills and weaknesses and know how they match up with the competition. In the markets, since real money is at stake, success requires becoming a truly aware warrior. Winning consistently does not happen by chance. Success comes from being open-minded and resilient and learning to exploit weaknesses. In entering the most competitive arena on earth, one must also learn to skew the playing field to their favor. Sun Tzu's The Art of War offers many lessons that can be transposed to the investing arena.

“If ignorant both of your enemy and yourself,

you are certain to be in peril.”

—Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Investing Is Simple, but Not Easy

The strong appeals of DIY investing are found in the anonymity and freedom to deploy unconstrained tactics and strategies. However, quick rewards are rarely gained without eventually realizing the risks. Discerning which risks are worth taking and those to avoid is part of the art of investing. The greatest enemies of an investor lie at opposite ends of the emotional spectrum: an inflated ego and self-doubt. A few easy wins or a few miscalculations can quickly influence our self-confidence, both to our detriment. Investing requires a delicate balance. To become a greater warrior requires self-awareness, confidence, and the skills to recognize and manage risks, as well as the will and courage to seize opportunities. Approaching the markets with humility and respect will take an investor further than trading hot stocks.

To earn greater rewards more consistently does not require taking undue risks with uncertain payouts. It requires making smarter decisions with the right tools, at the right time, on terms of your choosing. On any long journey there are many ways to arrive at a destination, yet only very few will be truly effective. Once a better path is known, the status quo will should pale.

Choosing a Mission

Becoming a more effective investor will depend upon your ambition. As a road map, The Investing Oasis provides guidance across familiar terrain and other paths less well-known, with a particular focus on avoiding traps and dangers.

As per Table I.1, there are four tiers, each equating to a potentially more productive mission. Ideally, an investor will master each tier before progressing to the next. However, not all investors may desire to deploy such a comprehensive suite of techniques. Each succeeding level will demand more time and effort. Increasingly complex tactics will require greater skills and capital markets savvy to beneficially negotiate the capital markets. We must be mindful not to exceed our level of competency. Being overly ambitious or impatient will come at a cost.

Tier 1 focuses on building and managing a purposeful portfolio of growth stocks. The three subsequent tiers offer added income, growth, and protection strategies, respectively. As an investor masters each tier, their confidence and convictions should grow, leading them to the next level. By design, Tier 1 is the most involved to establish, and yet, requires the least amount of time and energy to manage. Even successfully deploying the protection techniques of Tier 4 does not mean the mission is accomplished, it just means that an investor is now better prepared to handle the inevitable uncertainties that accompany any adventure into the unknown.

Table I.1 Four mission tiers.

Mission: To Outperform the …

Status Quo

Avg Investor

Avg Pro

Market

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

Tier 4

Build a Core Growth Portfolio

Core Management and Income from Covered Calls

Managing Cash, Debt and Adding Stealth Growth

Adding Portfolio Protection

“The real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes

but in having new eyes.”

—Marcel Proust, twentieth-century French novelist, critic, and essayist

A Helping Hand

No one should be more motivated to manage and care for your wealth than you. Whether investing $50K or $10M, this guide has been mindfully crafted for driven and discerning investors. We guide readers to build and manage more professionally a four-tiered portfolio, depending on the mission chosen. The guide highlights strategies, tactics, and tips to introduce ways to create value, whether improving performance, diminishing volatility, reducing costs, or eliminating undue risks and mistakes:

INVESTOR TIPS –

Investing ideas that can create value.

TRUE NORTH BEHAVIORS

– Behavioral adjustments that can improve decisions.

WISDOMS

– Sensible principles and values.

AT THE OASIS

– How the author deploys tactics or handle a situation.

INVESTOR CAUTIONS –

Be forewarned.

Included, as well, are URLs to definitions, resources, and articles for educational and reference purposes. This guide is intended for the investor who sincerely wants to improve their long-term investing journey.

If this introduction resonates, likely we share common beliefs:

Stocks allow investors to share ownership with some of the greatest intellects on earth.

In the short term, the markets are emotional. In the long term, they are highly predictable.

A diversified portfolio of North American stocks is a proxy for the global economy.

Consistently profitable businesses with healthy balance sheets and visionary leaders make better investments.

Not all corporations are sustainable. Pursuing prudent ESG standards starts at the top.

Every trade should incrementally enhance portfolio performance, reduce volatility, or diminish undue risks.

Contrarian practices render better results than following the crowd.

Risk management should be proactive and woven into every decision.

Quality stocks will survive even the worst of market purges.

Discipline, patience, and courage will influence results more than tactical trading.

As strategic weapons, cash and debt reserves should be deployed discerningly.

Counter Uncertainty with Stability

As in any of life's achievements, success requires effort, and is best accomplished one step at a time. The Investing Oasis is not a get-rich-quick scheme. The entire process is broken down into increments to introduce constructive ways to create value along the route. Better capital markets decisions will happen more consistently by staying focused on the path and learning to deploy thoughtful capital markets decisions. Control over anything but your own decisions is an illusion.

Becoming a better investor also requires learning how to make less bad decisions and practicing restraint. To achieve and retain success, accountability is a necessary part of personal growth, as is remaining humble when success periodically shines upon you.

Overall, investing is simple, but it requires mindful efforts. Whether we invest or not, the markets will continue to rise. Markets represent the progress of society. They reflect the accretive value of goods and services offered by publicly traded companies. An investor's biggest contribution of value to their portfolio is to use rigorous standards to find great companies, then deploy discipline to buy stocks at reasonable prices. The biggest mistakes come from second-guessing those decisions and following the crowd. When it comes to investing, being “market smart” means having a plan, deploying your strategy with discipline, and then patiently reaping the rewards.

“When setting out on a journey,

do not seek advice from those who have never left home.”

—Rumi, thirteenth-century Persian poet

Walking the Talk

Like hiring an experienced adventure guide, The Investing Oasis promises to steward an investor effectively and safely across the harsh investment terrain to a desired destination. Having already experienced this journey many times, everything shared genuinely reflects how I professionally manage the Oasis Growth Fund.

“Life is like a desert.

You only regret the oasis you let pass.”

—Arab proverb

Setting a Social Contract

The Investing Oasis intends to challenge each follower to become a better investor and, along the way, to become a better self. As an investor progresses toward their chosen destination, hopefully every stride will have counted. This guide is designed to help investors manage their money better, but it also hopes to raise awareness to becoming a better global citizen.

Since the capital markets are a direct reflection of the world writ large, how we invest matters just as much as how we consume. Socially responsible investing is a process that takes into consideration both an investment's financial return and its social, environmental, and ethical impacts. This places the onus on the investor to choose among corporations that are striving to do better. On the other hand, ESG is an evaluation and ranking of each stock based upon their collective social, environmental, and governance data. Together, an investment strategy mindful of socially responsible investment (SRI) factors and ESG standards can render influence on this precious planet. Although The Investing Oasis is just one investing style, the lessons embedded are timeless and can help an investor become a more mindful capital markets actor, as well as a more successful investor.

CAVEATS

The philosophies of

The Investing Oasis

are the antithesis of day trading. No apologies.

There is no free lunch. Winning consistently comes from a convergence of intelligent, mindful, and disciplined decisions. Luck may occasionally be in play, but should be the icing, not the cake.

This guide does not reveal which stocks to buy. Its tenets rely on common sense and focuses on self-development to make better decisions.

It avoids the five DIY vices: quick wins, all-or-none trades, market timing, speculation, and undisciplined leveraging.

In a universe of unlimited investing techniques, it combines a series of individually proven methodologies into one coordinated game plan.

The focus is on building an effective portfolio of stocks. An investor should only invest in stocks if it is appropriate for their circumstances. Each reader's asset mix decision is personal (i.e. stocks, fixed income, cash, real estate, and alternative investments).

Every reader will interpret the information and recommendations uniquely. As such, there is no perfect way to deploy a portfolio. Outcomes will vary; however, the majority of readers should expect improvements from the status quo.

I only invest in stocks because I buy to hold them for the long term. Historically, stocks have consistently outperformed fixed income securities (i.e. bonds) over 10+ years. However, fixed income securities could be beneficial to support an investor's lower degree of risk tolerance or when a pending obligation has a specific time horizon, for which a specific term and assuredness of capital would be paramount.

The only advice offered in

The Investing Oasis

is to seek professional advice when a personal situation requires perspective, skills, or tools beyond the reader's capacity.

In Respect of Your Advisor

Before moving forward, it's possible that a professional may already be keeping you on track. This guide is not intended to disrupt a trusted relationship. Instead, if acting upon ideas presented in this guide, it could even enhance this rapport.

By becoming a more engaged investor, it might help to better appreciate the challenges facing an Advisor as they manage some, or the bulk, of your wealth. Being on the firing line of the capital markets and making critical decisions should reinforce the benefits of building a prudent portfolio.

Managing some of your own capital, however, is also not intended to be in competition with the Advisor. Though there could be overlaps in investment choices, the strategies deployed likely should steer in different directions. As in most long-distance treks, there are merits to exploring alternative routes to arrive at the eventual destination.

“The fears we don't face become our limits.”

—Robin Sharma, Canadian author of The Monk Who Sold His Ferrari

For Financial Planners, Advisors, and Family Offices

With respect to investment matters, this guide assumes that the financial professional has dutifully established themself as their client's primary service provider. Yet, despite pledging their trust, many clients still tend to “dabble” in the markets. While they may relish the thrill of participation, without a plan, unstructured investing could be a costly form of self-education.

With the markets already being ill-defined and uncertain, an investor pursuing day-trading tactics may unwittingly convert high-probability, high-quality assets into speculation. In other words, by relying on a relatively monolithic plan with the blunt tool of day trading, they add to the riskiness of the marketplace and to their wealth. Since the behavior gap is a very persistent problem, investors could improve upon the status quo with modest effort.

This guide has been purposefully crafted to complement and enhance a professional's value proposition. While mentoring requires patient stewardship, the process of building a client's investing acumen may be unduly cumbersome for the professional, along with their other duties and responsibilities. As such, the educational approach delivered by The Investing Oasis is intended to be a valued extension of the professional's hand.

From the perspective of a fellow experienced professional, The Investing Oasis offers a structured plan combined with insights, education, investing tips, and refined portfolio management techniques. We even outline ways to avoid unnecessary risks and identify where self-inflicted behaviors and mistakes could become problematic. Generally, investors are guided to act within their levels of competency and risk tolerance. The primary goal of this guide is to improve the odds of a more successful DIY journey.

As written, the desert metaphor implies a journey fraught with perpetual dangers and temptations where only the occasional oasis may offer respite.

As one such refuge, The Investing Oasis provides the foundation and guidance from which an investor can launch the next leg of their journey. To the financial professional, The Investing Oasis offers four potential benefits:

Better-educated clients make for more productive meetings.

This guide is designed as an educational support tool to enhance capital markets decisions and discussions rendering more effective meetings.

Appreciation.

Going DIY could save on professional fees, yet poor execution may quickly squander this advantage. With clients undertaking front-line investment decisions, this guide could improve their capital markets savvy and render an appreciation of the challenges faced by the Advisor.

Extending a professional's marketing initiatives.

With easy access to discount platforms and questionable social media influences, many clients are already being exposed and attracted to the DIY concept.

The Investing Oasis

can help to distinguish the financial professional as caring beyond the direct services provided. DIY investing and professional services need not be mutually exclusive.

One full chapter is dedicated to improving the client-professional relationship.

The features and benefits of working with a financial professional are highlighted in

Chapter 6

, including how to measure their value proposition and how to improve this relationship. All good relationships require a healthy feedback loop.

Realistically, The Investing Oasis is not for every client. Yet, for those destined to DIY, or even as a timeless educational platform for their children, it can enhance and extend a professional's overall value proposition across generations. This guide is intended as an investment into both the long-term well-being of your clients and that of your practice. Engaged clients are likely to be more satisfied clients.

Notes

1

   Housel, M. (2020).

The Psychology of Money

. Petersfield, Hampshire: Harriman House Ltd.

2

   King, B. (2014). 9,096 Stars in the Sky—Is that All?

https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-blogs/how-many-stars-night-sky-09172014/

(Accessed 11 December 2021).

3

   Dalbar QAIB 2020 Report (Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior).

4

   The behavior gap is the difference between investment returns when an investor makes rational decisions and those generated under the influence of our emotions.

*

   The Oasis Growth Fund is one of a trust series powered by Fieldhouse Pro Funds Inc. in Yaletown, British Columbia, Canada.

5

   

https://www.finra.org/registration-exams-ce/qualification-exams/securities-industry-essentials-exam

6

   

https://www.csi.ca/student/en_ca/courses/csi/csc_enrol.xhtml?gclid=Cj0KEQjw8-LnBRCyxtfMl-Cbu48BEiQA6eUMGqqaonl83q40IOMkamRs4wT2dClYQzay8xEH_I2OIdUaAlag8P8HAQ

7

   Housel, M. (2020).

The Psychology of Money

. Petersfield, Hampshire: Harriman House Ltd.

FOUNDATION

Figure I.2 Overview

You are about to begin a journey into the relative unknown. The capital markets are all around us, yet they are nuanced and elusive to comprehend. Even if you've been investing for generations, the investment dunes shift with the wind, signposts disappear, and the risks are continually mutating. The market, at best, is uncertain and, at worst, can be downright vicious. Undertaking a lone trek through one of the most inhospitable environments on planet earth with a storm perpetually hovering on the horizon can be wealth-threatening and intimidating. Which path to take? In what to invest? In whom to trust? How to protect oneself? Questions abound.

Most investors could benefit from a respite at this oasis to review the road map and measure their options before relaunching the mission. Whether this is the very beginning, or a pause on your route, the time will be well invested.

Chapter 1Eyes Wide Open

“Victorious warriors win first, then go to war. Defeated warriors go to war, seeking to win.”

—Sun Tzu (544–496 BCE), The Art of War

Objective:

Preparing for the investing trek ahead.

Hierarchy of Creating Value with Investing

Building a resilient portfolio capable of generating above-average returns requires taking a holistic approach with a focus on simplicity and common sense. Figure 1.1 is an adaptation inspired by Morgan Housel's “Hierarchy of Competency” in his book The Psychology of Money.1 Through extensive research, he concluded investors should establish a foundation before attempting to tackle more complex layers of investing competency.

This adaptation has been evolved into a hierarchy of six areas where investors can actively create real value by heeding better practices. Since each investment is a series of micro-decisions leading up to a final negotiation in the capital markets arena, to get the most out of that next trade requires a thoughtful process. Time and experience usually improve our capital markets decision-making. However, the “behavior gap,” a term coined by advisor, columnist, and author Carl Richards, is the chronic long-term underperformance realized by investors relative to the market due to erratic human decisions confounded by our emotions.

Figure 1.1 Hierarchy of portfolio value creation. Adapted from https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/07/09/needs.aspx (Accessed 23 January 2019).

The pyramid in Figure 1.1 is in ascending order of relevance to the investing process. The relative size of each layer reveals the potential for investors to create value through improved personal decisions.

Being a consistently good investor requires having a plan, learning to distill valued information, using the right tools, deploying good judgment, and then holding to your convictions during the darkest hours. In escalating order of competency, here are the six areas where mindful actions can create real enhancements to building and managing a portfolio. Note that the top layer (Tax Planning) should be undertaken with a trusted professional.

The Asset Mix

Investing starts with determining the asset mix. According to research by Vanguard, the asset mix decision influences nearly 90% of a portfolio's returns and the degree of volatility. Historically, the more capital allocated to owning stocks, the higher the expected long-term returns. The trade-off is having to accept an increased range of short-term uncertainty. While the asset mix may not be top of mind, it's a starting point and everything else flows from there. Chapter 4 addresses setting an appropriate asset mix.

Good Capital Markets Behavior

Getting consistently reliable results has very little to do with picking a hot stock. Making the right allocation decisions requires research and perspective. Better decisions come from triangulation (using multiple sources to confirm a decision), patience, and having the confidence to stick to your plan. Poor capital markets behavior stems from spontaneous trading. The greatest improvements often come from simple behavioral changes. Chapters 2, 5, 14, and 20 outline ways to either improve capital markets behavior or to circumvent our behavior through proactive trading.

Portfolio Design and Management

Portfolio design should not be an afterthought. Chapters 11, 12, and 15 introduce effective methods to construct and manage a holistic portfolio with purpose.

Security Selection

A portfolio of winning stocks does not happen randomly. Choosing securities should be a thoughtful process centered around good investing principles. Historically, a portfolio of quality stocks has always been capable of withstanding the worst volatility. Yet this requires having confidence in the market and conviction in your security choices. Chapters 7–10 present 16 filters to help find quality growth stocks.

Trading

Deploying a trade is only one part of the investing process. Unfortunately, on average, high-volume trading tactics are relied upon too heavily to create wealth. As a retail investor's sole interface with the capital markets, trading requires our best, objective behavior to negotiate consistently good results. Those who rely primarily on trading instincts face three serious disadvantages:

Efficient algorithms dominate trading.

Certain trading sites allow “market makers” to intercept retail trades, potentially adding to trading costs. The claim is that they are improving the market liquidity. It's not fair, but it is legal.

Emotions and impatience frequently cloud our judgment. Achieving consistently successful trades requires purposeful and principled decisions. Trading “bots” can analyze reams of data in nanoseconds before pouncing on retail trading mistakes. The human brain can barely handle one trade per minute. That's hardly a fair fight.

“The more active you are as an investor, the worse you will do.”

— Meir Statman, author of Behavioral Finance: The Second Generation

Chapters 14, 15, and 20 introduce proactive and contrarian trading techniques to force the algorithms to meet you on your terms. When deploying trades, “less is more.”

Costs

DIY investors are not exposed to the cost structure that professionals face. Therefore, they already have a built-in advantage. “Portfolio Turnover” on the companion website2 addresses how to measure and retain this strategic advantage.

Gaining the Upper Hand

According to Morgan Housel, investing without first having mastered good investor behavior could undermine the entire investing experience. Investors tend to spend too much time chasing stocks and generally mismanaging the rest of their value-creating opportunities. Coveted education and refined investment skills can be wholly unraveled without thoughtful planning, applying purposeful, risk-measured decisions, and a commitment to self-development.

For experienced investors, though, this doesn't mean starting over. If satisfied with the results to date, stay the course. But where the status quo is no longer acceptable, here are four fundamental ways that this guide can be useful:

Purposeful Design

– Through step-by-step education and relevant examples, investors will learn to construct a well-founded portfolio and learn how to deploy more effective trades.

Graduated Steps

– Four tiers of increasing challenge and value creation are presented, depending on which level of mission an investor desires to undertake. Each chapter progressively builds upon the knowledge and methods of the previous.

Shared Methods

– I “walk the talk” and accurately share my portfolio management methods, tactics, and strategies.

Increased Behavior Awareness

The Investing Oasis

identifies where adjustments in behavior could improve performance results, diminish risks, or introduce ways to circumvent the investing challenges altogether.