Trading Economics E-Book

Trevor Williams

• Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
• Kategorie: Fachliteratur
• Serie: Wiley Finance Series
• Sprache: Englisch

Seitenzahl: 364

Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2014

Beschreibung

A practical guide to understanding how key economic and market statistics drive financial market trends

The recent global financial crisis stressed the need for economists who understand how key economic and market statistics drive financial market trends and how to mitigate the risks for businesses that those trends affect. Trading Economics provides guidance for navigating key market figures in a convenient and practical format. Emphasizing the link between economic data and market movements, this book analyzes surveys, economic growth statistics, inflation, labor markets, international trade, monetary and fiscal indicators, and their relevance in financial markets. It bypasses complex terminology to offer a hands-on, accessible introduction to financial statistics and how to profit from them.

• Offers clear illustrations and an easy-to-read layout to teach you how to trade profitably in financial markets and minimizes risk for your business
• Written Trevor Williams and Victoria Turton, authoritative public figures with experience working on the New York Stock Exchange
• Includes a website featuring a blog and new surveys as they develop accompanies the book

Complete with worked examples and updated information, Trading Economics is an essential, comprehensive guide to understanding every aspect of financial market trends and how to navigate them to your advantage.

Leseprobe

For other titles in the Wiley Finance series

please see www.wiley.com/finance

Trading Economics

A Guide to Economic Statistics for Practitioners and Students

Trevor Williams

Victoria Turton

This edition first published 2014 © 2014 Trevor Williams and Victoria Turton

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Williams, Trevor, 1957–

    Trading economics : a guide to economic statistics for practitioners & students / Trevor Williams, Victoria Turton.—1

        pages cm.—(The Wiley finance series)

    Includes bibliographical references and index.

    ISBN 978-1-118-76641-5 (hardback)—ISBN 978-1-118-76631-6 (ebk)— ISBN 978-1-118-76638-5 (ebk)—ISBN 978-1-118-76629-3 (ebk)    1. Finance—Statistics.    2. Money market—Handbooks, manuals, etc.    I. Turton, Victoria, 1974–    II. Title.

    HG176.5.W55 2014

    330.01′5195—dc23

2014007150

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.

ISBN 978-1-118-76641-5 (hardback) ISBN 978-1-118-76631-6 (ebk)

ISBN 978-1-118-76638-5 (ebk) ISBN 978-1-118-76629-3 (ebk)

Cover image: Shutterstock.com

CONTENTS

Acknowledgements

Introduction

Surprise Indices

Mapping a New Landscape

Note

1 Surveys

Surveys and Behavioural Economics

Types of Survey

Business Surveys

Consumer Surveys

Conclusion

Notes

2 Economic Growth

Economic Growth Through the Ages

GDP

What is GDP?

Breaking Down GDP

Why is GDP important? How is It Measured?

Index Numbers of GDP and the Price Deflators Used in Calculating Them

Detailed Breakdown of the GDP Measures

A Market Link

Components of GDP

Conclusion

Notes

3 Labour Markets

Employment Trends

What has Driven the Change?

Consequences for Economic Growth

Phillips Curve Shows no Durable Trade-Off Exists

NAIRU Matters More

Employment Measures

Why We Measure Unemployment

The Nature of Unemployment

The Impact of Demographics on Labour Markets

Vacancies

Changing Labour Patterns

The UK in Comparison to Its Global Competitors

How do We Extract Value from This?

Conclusion

Notes

4 Inflation

What is Inflation?

The History of Inflation

Causes of Inflation

Earnings/Wage Inflation

Price Basket

How is Price Inflation Measured?

GDP Deflator

Why so Many Measures of Inflation?

A Focus on the CPI and RPI

Why is Inflation Important?

Deflation

Other Measures of Inflation Targeting

How can We Extract Value from This?

Conclusion

Notes

5 Monetary Statistics

Monetary Policy and Inflation Management

The UK in a Global Context

Central Bank's Role

What About the Bank of England?

How Monetary Policy Works in the Uk

Decomposition of Money

Why does Money Supply Matter?

Why Is This Sort of Analysis Useful?

A Brief History of Monetary Targeting

How Do We Extract Value from This?

Conclusion

Notes

6 Fiscal Indicators

A Brief History of UK Fiscal Policy

Measuring Government Debt

Fiscal Policy Impact and Terminology

The Impact of Government on Markets

Fiscal Policy and Growth

The Data We Should Consider

Fiscal Policy in Boom and Bust

Market Relevance

Bank of England Regains Regulatory Powers

What Role Does the Office for Budget Responsibility Play in the Fiscal Policy Process?

The Monetary Policy Committee

Forward Guidance – Another Bank Innovation

The Debt Management Office's Role

Comparison of International Debt

Fiscal Targets Add Credibility to Debt Reduction

How Can We Extract Value from This?

Conclusion

Notes

7 Global Trade Statistics

What Is a Country's Balance of Payments?

Why Do We Measure the Balance of Payments?

What Does It Mean?

The Concept of the Balance of Payments

UK Is not Alone in Having a Trade Deficit

A Chronic Goods Deficit

A Chronic Services Surplus to Offset (Almost) the Trade Deficit

The Ever-Changing Pattern of Visible and Invisible Trade

Balance of Payments and GDP

Shifting Trade Patterns

How Can We Extract Value from This?

Conclusion

Notes

Conclusion

Be anchored to the data flow

Some key points to take away

Note

Appendices

Appendix 1 Surveys

CBI Industrial Trends Survey

CBI Distributive Trades Survey

Notes

Appendix 2 Bank of England: Agents' Summary of Business Conditions (January 2014)

Appendix 3 Inflation: Contributions to Change in the 12-Month Rate

Appendix 4 Voting on Interest Rates by the Monetary Policy Committee – 1997 to January 2014

Appendix 5 Voting on Asset Purchases Financed with central bank reserves by the Monetary Policy Committee – March 2009 to January 2014

Bibliography

Index

End User License Agreement

List of Tables

Chapter 2

Table 2.1

Table 2.2

Table 2.3

Table 2.4

Table 2.5

Table 2.6

Table 2.7

Table 2.8

Table 2.9

Chapter 3

Table 3.1

Table 3.18

Table 3.19

Chapter 4

Table 4.1

Table 4.2

Table 4.3

Table 4.4

Chapter 6

Table 6.1

Table 6.2

Chapter 7

Table 7.1

Table 7.2

Table 7.3

List of Illustrations

Chapter 1

Figure 1.1

UK equity prices rise as PMI's suggest a strong economic recovery is underway.