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David Bowers

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For two decades, Understanding Clinical Papers has been helping students and professionals understand the research that supports evidence-based practice. Now in its fourth edition, this popular introductory textbook covers every major aspect of reading and evaluating clinical research literature, from identifying the aims and objectives of a paper to analysing the data with different multivariable methods. Numerous excerpts from actual clinical research papers make learning real and immediate, supported by a unique visual approach that reinforces key points and connects examples with the chapter material. The fourth edition includes extensively revised content throughout, including four brand-new chapters covering qualitativestudies, Poisson regression, studies of complex interventions, and research using previously collected data. New and updated material discusses the difference between clinical and statistical significance, the consequences of multiple testingand methods of correction, howtopic guides are used to explore and explain participants' experiences, standardised guidelines for writing trials and reviews, and much more. Offering clear explanations of important research-related topics, this reader-friendly resource: * Offers a clear, concise, and accessible approach to learning how to read and analyse clinical research literature * Features new coverage of qualitativeresearch, includingdescriptive studies, sampling and populations,and identifying, summarising, and measuring qualitative characteristics * Provides new material on missing data, sub-group analysis, feasibility and pilot studies, cluster randomised trials, and adaptive trial designs * Includes new tables, abstracts, and excerpts from recent clinical research literature Understanding Clinical Papers is essential reading for all healthcare professionals and students, particularly those involved in clinical work and medical research, as well as general readers wanting to improve their understanding of research literature.

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Table of Contents

Cover

Title Page

Copyright Page

Preface to the First Edition

Preface to the Second Edition

SOME NOTES ON STATISTICAL SOFTWARE

WRITING PAPERS FOR CLINICAL JOURNALS

Preface to the Third Edition

Preface to the Fourth Edition

PART I: Setting the Scene: Who Did What, and Why

CHAPTER 1: Some Preliminaries

WHO WROTE THE PAPER?

IN WHAT SORT OF JOURNAL DOES THE PAPER APPEAR?

WHO (AND WHAT) IS ACKNOWLEDGED?

CHAPTER 2: The Abstract and Introduction

THE ABSTRACT

THE INTRODUCTION

ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS

CHAPTER 3: The Aims and Objectives

HYPOTHESES

OBJECTIVES THAT ARE NOT HYPOTHESIS TESTING

STUDIES WITH UNCLEAR OBJECTIVES

PART II: Design Matters: What Type of Study Is It?

CHAPTER 4: Descriptive Studies

QUALITATIVE RESEARCH

TYPES OF QUALITATIVE STUDY

CHAPTER 5: Descriptive Studies

CASE REPORTS

CASE SERIES

CROSS‐SECTIONAL STUDIES

LONGITUDINAL STUDIES

CHAPTER 6: Analytic Studies

ECOLOGICAL STUDIES

CROSS‐SECTIONAL, TWO‐GROUP STUDIES

CASE–CONTROL STUDIES

COHORT ANALYTIC STUDIES

VARIATIONS IN CASE–CONTROL AND COHORT DESIGNS

COMPARING AND CONTRASTING CASE–CONTROL AND COHORT STUDIES

‘STROBE' GUIDELINES

CHAPTER 7: Intervention Studies

TRIALS

RANDOM ALLOCATION AND ITS CONCEALMENT

CONSENT AND RANDOMIZATION IN TRIALS

PLACEBOS OR TREATMENT‐AS‐USUAL

PRAGMATIC AND EXPLANATORY TRIALS

INTENTION‐TO‐TREAT ANALYSIS

FEASIBILITY AND PILOT STUDIES

CLUSTER RANDOMIZED TRIALS

ADAPTIVE TRIAL DESIGN

CONSORT GUIDELINES

CHAPTER 8: Mixed Methods Research

CHAPTER 9: Studies of Complex Interventions

CHAPTER 10: Systematic Review and Meta‐Analysis

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW

PUBLICATION AND OTHER BIASES

THE FUNNEL PLOT

HETEROGENEITY

COMBINING THE STUDIES

‘PRISMA' GUIDELINES

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW OF NON‐TRIALS RESEARCH

CHAPTER 11: Systematic Review of Qualitative Studies

PART III: The Cast: Finding Out About the Subjects of the Research

CHAPTER 12: The Research Setting

CHAPTER 13: Populations and Samples in Quantitative Research

SAMPLING

SAMPLE SIZE AND POWER

CHAPTER 14: Research Using Already‐Collected Data

SOURCES OF ALREADY‐COLLECTED DATA

PROBLEMS WITH ALREADY‐COLLECTED DATA

MISSING DATA IN ALREADY‐COLLECTED DATASETS

CONFOUNDING IN ALREADY‐COLLECTED DATA

CHAPTER 15: The Sample in Qualitative Research

THE NATURE OF SAMPLES IN QUALITATIVE RESEARCH

SAMPLE SIZE IN QUALITATIVE RESEARCH

SAMPLING FOR QUALITATIVE RESEARCH

CHAPTER 16: Identifying and Defining Cases

CHAPTER 17: Controls and Comparisons

PART IV: Establishing the Facts: Starting with Basic Observations

CHAPTER 18: Identifying the Characteristics of Quantitative Data

TYPES OF VARIABLE – TYPES OF DATA

IDENTIFYING DATA TYPE

SHAPES OF DISTRIBUTIONS

CHAPTER 19: Summarizing the Characteristics of Quantitative Data

SUMMARY MEASURES OF LOCATION

SUMMARY MEASURES OF SPREAD

CHAPTER 20: Identifying and Summarising the Characteristics of Qualitative Data

CHAPTER 21: Measuring the Characteristics of Participants

INFORMATION AND MEASUREMENT BIAS

BIAS ARISING FROM MISSING VALUES

CHAPTER 22: Measuring the Characteristics of Participants

CHAPTER 23: Diagnostic Tests

THE MEASURES

THE SENSITIVITY VERSUS SPECIFICITY TRADE‐OFF – THE RECEIVER OPERATING CHARACTERISTIC (ROC) CURVE

CHAPTER 24: Measurement Scales

THE MEASUREMENT PROBLEM

WHAT ARE MEASUREMENT SCALES?

WHEN AUTHORS USE DATA FROM MEASUREMENT SCALES

DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW MEASUREMENT SCALE

SCALE CONSTRUCTION

DESIRABLE PROPERTIES OF SCALES

CHAPTER 25: Exploring and Explaining

PART V: Establishing More of the Facts: Some Common Ways of Describing Results

CHAPTER 26: Fractions, Proportions, and Rates

CHAPTER 27: Risks and Odds

RISK

ODDS

CHAPTER 28: Ratios of Risks and Odds

RISK RATIO

ODDS RATIO

CLINICAL TRIALS AND ‘NUMBERS NEEDED TO TREAT'

PART VI: Analysing the Data: Estimation and Hypothesis Testing

CHAPTER 29: Confidence Intervals for Means, Proportions, and Medians

WHAT IS A CONFIDENCE INTERVAL?

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR DIFFERENCES IN TWO MEANS

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS AND CLINICAL EFFECTIVENESS

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR DIFFERENCES IN TWO PERCENTAGES

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR DIFFERENCES IN TWO MEDIANS

CHAPTER 30: Confidence Intervals for Ratios

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR ODDS RATIOS

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR RISK RATIOS

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR HAZARD RATIOS

CHAPTER 31: Testing Hypotheses – The

p

‐value

ASSESSING THE EVIDENCE AGAINST THE HYPOTHESIS – THE

P

‐VALUE

MAKING THE WRONG DECISION – TYPES OF ERROR

HYPOTHESIS TESTS AND CONFIDENCE INTERVALS COMPARED

TWO‐TAILED VERSUS ONE‐TAILED TESTS

MATCHED VERSUS INDEPENDENT GROUPS

TRANSFORMING DATA

FINALLY

PART VII: Analysing the Data: Multivariable Methods

CHAPTER 32: Measuring Association

MEASURING ASSOCIATION

THE CORRELATION COEFFICIENT

CHAPTER 33: Measuring Agreement

MEASURING AGREEMENT WITH NOMINAL DATA

INTERPRETING

κ

AGREEMENT WITH ORDINAL DATA: WEIGHTED κ

MEASURING AGREEMENT WITH METRIC DATA

CHAPTER 34: Linear Regression

WHY REGRESSION?

LINEAR REGRESSION

ESTIMATING THE REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS – ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES ESTIMATION

MEASURING THE STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE OF THE REGRESSION PARAMETERS

MODEL‐BUILDING AND VARIABLE SELECTION

AUTOMATED (OR STEPWISE) VARIABLE SELECTION

MANUAL VARIABLE SELECTION METHODS

INTERPRETING THE REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS

GOODNESS‐OF‐FIT

DUMMY (OR DESIGN) VARIABLES

TESTING THE ASSUMPTIONS OF THE LINEAR REGRESSION MODEL

EFFECT MODIFICATION AND INTERACTION

SUMMARY

ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE (ANOVA)

MULTIVARIATE STATISTICS

CHAPTER 35: Logistic Regression

THE LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL

VARIABLE SELECTION AND MODEL ESTIMATION

INTERPRETATION AND STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE OF THE REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS

DUMMY VARIABLES

GOODNESS‐OF‐FIT

EFFECT MODIFICATION – INTERACTION

MODEL DIAGNOSTICS

CHAPTER 36: Poisson Regression

PREAMBLE

POISSON REGRESSION

GOODNESS‐OF‐FIT

ZERO‐INFLATED POISSON REGRESSION

NEGATIVE BINOMIAL REGRESSION

ZERO‐INFLATED NEGATIVE BINOMIAL REGRESSION (ZNIB)

CHAPTER 37: Measuring Survival

THE KAPLAN–MEIER METHOD – MEDIAN SURVIVAL TIME

THE LOG‐RANK TEST

LOG‐RANK TEST FOR TREND

THE PROPORTIONAL HAZARDS (OR COX'S) REGRESSION MODEL

CHAPTER 38: Analysing Qualitative Data

PART VIII: Reading Between the Lines: How Authors use Text, Tables, and Pictures to Tell You the Story

CHAPTER 39: Results in Text and Tables

RAW RESULTS AND COOKED FINDINGS

INTERESTING FINDINGS

LEGENDS AND BRACKETS

DASHES

CHAPTER 40: Results in Pictures

WHY USE CHARTS AND FIGURES?

SHAPE OF DISTRIBUTIONS

CHAPTER 41: The Discussion and Conclusions

References

Index

End User License Agreement

List of Tables

Chapter 31

Table 31.1 A few of the more common statistical tests.

List of Illustrations

Chapter 1

Figure 1.1 Authors and research centres listed at the start of a research pa...

Figure 1.2 Paper written by multiple authors on behalf of several research g...

Figure 1.3 Acknowledgement of statistical, financial, and other support at t...

Chapter 2

Figure 2.1 An example of a structured Abstract – this one from a trial of tw...

Figure 2.2 An unstructured Abstract accompanied by a list of Keywords indica...

Figure 2.3 Explaining the background to a research study.

Figure 2.4 Introduction explaining the rationale for the study.

Figure 2.5 Ethical considerations in a study involving adults with a learnin...

Chapter 3

Figure 3.1 Statement of a study's main hypothesis.

Figure 3.2 A study with two hypotheses.

Figure 3.3 The (structured) Abstract of a qualitative study, starting with a...

Figure 3.4 The aim of the qualitative study.

Figure 3.5 New subgroup analysis in report of an RCT.

Chapter 4

Figure 4.1 A qualitative study examining views and experience of tests and i...

Figure 4.2 Grounded theory as the theoretical basis for a study examining pa...

Figure 4.3 A qualitative study employing ethnographic (participant observati...

Figure 4.4 A qualitative study involving focus groups and individual intervi...

Chapter 5

Figure 5.1 Types of research study design.

Figure 5.2 Extract from case series of bouncy castle injuries.

Figure 5.3 Extract from cross‐sectional study about bouncy castle injuries....

Figure 5.4 Prevalence of a clinical feature, determined in a cross‐sectional...

Figure 5.5 Extract from a cross‐sectional (incidence) study about frequency ...

Figure 5.6 Use of a survey method in a cross‐sectional study.

Chapter 6

Figure 6.1 Findings from an ecological study about smoking and domestic fire...

Figure 6.2 Extract from table of summary statistics from cross‐sectional stu...

Figure 6.3 A case–control study examining the relation between cannabis use ...

Figure 6.4 A retrospective cohort analytic study examining the relation betw...

Figure 6.5 Prospective cohort analytic study examining the relation between ...

Chapter 7

Figure 7.1 Summary of a randomized controlled trial investigating an interve...

Figure 7.2 Summary of a randomized controlled trial evaluating the effect of...

Figure 7.3 Extract from a randomized controlled trial, describing the use of...

Figure 7.4 A flow chart to illustrate Zelen's procedure for post‐randomizati...

Figure 7.5 Summary of a randomized controlled trial evaluating the effect of...

Figure 7.6 Extract from a pragmatic trial comparing face‐to‐face consultatio...

Figure 7.7 Abstract for a randomized controlled feasibility study examining ...

Figure 7.8 Extracts from the Methods section of a cluster randomised control...

Chapter 8

Figure 8.1 Concurrent use of qualitative and quantitative approaches to data...

Figure 8.2 A sequential approach to data collection is combined with a concu...

Figure 8.3 Results from qualitative and quantitative research studies can be...

Chapter 9

Figure 9.1 Description of a complex intervention.

Figure 9.2 Representation of the development of a complex intervention and i...

Figure 9.3 Use of a composite outcome measure in a systematic review.

Figure 9.4 Process evaluation in an RCT.

Chapter 10

Figure 10.1 Abstract describing the rationale and methods for a systematic r...

Figure 10.2 Cochrane Review of local treatments for skin warts showing that ...

Figure 10.3 Funnel plot used to check for publication bias in a meta‐analysi...

Figure 10.4 L'Abbé plot showing outcomes from 37 placebo‐controlled trials o...

Figure 10.5 Forest plot showing comparison of dietary saturated fatty acid r...

Chapter 11

Figure 11.1 Statement of review objective and search strategy in a study exp...

Figure 11.2 Example of synthesis of qualitative, quantitative, and mixed‐met...

Figure 11.3 Example of a qualitative review that used meta‐ethnography to ad...

Chapter 12

Figure 12.1 A national survey of deaths from suicide and their relation to t...

Figure 12.2 Reporting from a National Case Register of the rare disease, var...

Figure 12.3 Results from a population‐based study of self‐harm.

Figure 12.4 A service‐based study, undertaken in a specialist clinic, of com...

Chapter 13

Figure 13.1 A study which describes two random samples.

Figure 13.2 A systematic sample of patients attending clinics on particular ...

Figure 13.3 Sample size calculation in a clinical trial.

Chapter 14

Figure 14.1 Cohort study based upon already‐collected primary care data (CPR...

Figure 14.2 Data on self‐reported self‐harm from a national survey.

Figure 14.3 Outcome study based upon linking already‐collected datasets, wit...

Figure 14.4 Missing data in a birth cohort study used to estimate outcomes a...

Chapter 15

Figure 15.1 Sampling purposively – for diversity in an observational study a...

Figure 15.2 Sample characteristics chosen for maximum variation and sample s...

Figure 15.3 Clarifying the unit of analysis: not 15 participants, but 65 ‘di...

Figure 15.4 Example of a sampling matrix; in this case one which might have ...

Chapter 16

Figure 16.1 Inclusion and exclusion criteria applied to recruits into a tria...

Figure 16.2 Flow chart describing the participants in a randomized controlle...

Chapter 17

Figure 17.1 Comparison results from a clinical population with published pop...

Figure 17.2 A case control study comparing exposure to influenza vaccine in ...

Figure 17.3 Non‐random selection of intervention and control groups in a tri...

Chapter 18

Figure 18.1 Types of data.

Figure 18.2 Types of data used to describe the baseline characteristics of s...

Figure 18.3 Types of data used in a study comparing Foley catheter versus pr...

Figure 18.4 A positively skewed histogram showing the number (frequency) of ...

Figure 18.5 Normally distributed Jamaican birthweight data.

Chapter 19

Figure 19.1 Hypothetical normally distributed systolic blood pressure (b.p.)...

Figure 19.2 A small part of a baseline table describing the characteristics ...

Figure 19.3 Baseline characteristics in an acute back pain study.

Chapter 20

Figure 20.1 A study of patients' aggression, where the boundaries of the dat...

Figure 20.2 A study of neighbourhood influences on physical activity in olde...

Figure 20.3 Use of photos to elicit responses in a semi‐structured interview...

Figure 20.4 The unit of analysis may be a significant utterance, phrase, or ...

Chapter 21

Figure 21.1 Summary and part of a table from a randomized controlled trial, ...

Figure 21.2 Baseline or casemix measures from a clinical trial.

Figure 21.3 Blinding patients and staff so that measures made later can be m...

Figure 21.4 Blinding people who are extracting case note information to the ...

Figure 21.5 Dealing with missing values in a clinical trial.

Chapter 22

Figure 22.1 Martin et al. (2019),

Figure 22.2 Diversity as a characteristic of the participants in a study of ...

Chapter 23

Figure 23.1 Diagnostic plots showing: Panel (a) Sympathetic skin response (S...

Figure 23.2 Three ROC curves from a study to predict future diabetes when as...

Chapter 24

Figure 24.1 Extract from a paper reporting the development of a new scale to...

Figure 24.2 The scale properties of validity and reliability in a scale to m...

Figure 24.3 Extract from a study in which the authors examine the concurrent...

Figure 24.4 Demonstrating construct validity, from a paper on the use of SF‐...

Figure 24.5 Authors' comment on the correlations between scale scores from t...

Figure 24.6 Using

κ

to examine the test–retest (reliability) property o...

Chapter 25

Figure 25.1 Use of tailored topic guides in a study exploring experiences of...

Figure 25.2 Use of a predetermined set of questions (a topic guide) in a stu...

Chapter 26

Figure 26.1 Summary of a descriptive study setting out rates and proportions...

Chapter 27

Figure 27.1 Terminology in common use when describing the chance of tossing ...

Figure 27.2 A plausible result from two tosses of a coin.

Figure 27.3 Determining risk in a cohort study.

Figure 27.4 Determining odds (expressed as one odds relative to another) in ...

Chapter 28

Figure 28.1 Summary and extract from the Results section of a cohort analyti...

Figure 28.2 Summary and extract from the Results section of a case–control s...

Figure 28.3 Summary from a clinical trial where the main findings are set ou...

Chapter 29

Figure 29.1 Confidence intervals from a study comparing annual with twice‐ye...

Figure 29.2 95% confidence intervals for the mean difference in outcomes fro...

Figure 29.3 Four possible 95% confidence intervals for the difference betwee...

Figure 29.4 Comparison of outcomes in patients between a multidisciplinary i...

Figure 29.5 From Hartley et al. (2018),

Chapter 30

Figure 30.1 The adjusted odds ratios, stratified by income, for the prevalen...

Figure 30.2 Relative risks (risk ratios) from a large cohort study (47 000 m...

Chapter 31

Figure 31.1 A hypothetical 2 × 2 contingency table showing sample frequencie...

Figure 31.2 Use of the

χ

2

test in a comparison of additional catheter‐d...

Figure 31.3 Relative risks (risk ratios) for causes of poor outcome in patie...

Figure 31.4 Odds ratios and adjusted (for social class) odds ratios (and 95%...

Figure 31.5 Results of two‐sample

t

‐test to compare outcomes from two treatm...

Chapter 32

Figure 32.1 Scatterplot of hypothetical Glasgow Coma Scale scores given to 1...

Figure 32.2 Scatterplot of percentage mortality from aortic aneurysm in 16 h...

Figure 32.3 Scatterplot of the Patient‐Reported Outcomes Measurement Informa...

Figure 32.4 Pearson correlation coefficients (and

p

‐values) between adult mo...

Figure 32.5 Spearman correlation coefficients between breast size and a numb...

Chapter 33

Figure 33.1 Assessing agreement with Cohen's or Fleiss'

κ

.

Figure 33.2 Agreement about types of intercranial haemorrhage between three ...

Figure 33.3 Injury Severity Scores (ISS) given by two observers to 16 trauma...

Figure 33.4 Bland–Altman plots of Patient‐Reported Outcomes Measurement Info...

Chapter 34

Figure 34.1 The main components of a linear regression model.

Figure 34.2 Scatter plot of birthweight against cord serum EPA acid concentr...

Figure 34.3 Results of multiple linear regression from a prospective study t...

Figure 34.4 A simple coding design for the nominal variable

Ethnic group of

...

Chapter 35

Figure 35.1 Multivariable logistic regression model for the association betw...

Figure 35.2 Multivariate logistic regression analysis of effects of method o...

Chapter 36

Figure 36.1 Incident rate ratios (

IRR

s) and their 95% confidence intervals, ...

Figure 36.2 Risk ratios and 95% confidence intervals, for effect of adherenc...

Figure 36.3 Distribution of days of sickness absence among pregnant women in...

Figure 36.4 Results (simplified) from a zero‐inflated Poisson regression mod...

Figure 36.5 Incidence rate ratios (

IRR

s), from a cross‐sectional study into ...

Figure 36.6 Goodness‐of‐fit (as measured by log‐likelihood) of four regressi...

Chapter 37

Figure 37.1 Kaplan–Meier survival curves from a randomized trial of the effe...

Figure 37.2 Kaplan–Meier analysis of post‐progression survival (PPS) in the ...

Figure 37.3 Hazard ratios showing the association between several individual...

Chapter 38

Figure 38.1 Based on Facchin and Margola (2016).

Figure 38.2 Sample of three themes and corresponding meaning units. From a s...

Figure 38.3 Illness narratives among drug users living with HIV/AIDS.

Figure 38.4 A theory of reconciling incompatibilities.

Chapter 39

Figure 39.1 Extract from a results section to illustrate the interplay of te...

Figure 39.2 Extract from a results section to illustrate more complex interp...

Figure 39.3 Abstract from a clinical trial to illustrate the setting out of ...

Figure 39.4 Abstract from a case–control study to illustrate the setting out...

Figure 39.5 How the clarity of a table depends on its layout and the legend....

Figure 39.6 How the clarity of a table depends on its layout and the legend....

Figure 39.7 A table that successfully uses brackets, dashes and the word ‘to...

Chapter 40

Figure 40.1 Trial profile, showing who was potentially eligible and what hap...

Figure 40.2 Pie chart, showing categories of otology cases discussed at mult...

Figure 40.3 Bar chart comparing disease prevalence before and after fly cont...

Figure 40.4 Bar chart with error bars.

Figure 40.5 Line graph with error bars, showing mean sleep durations for var...

Figure 40.6 Stacked bar charts displaying a pattern over time.

Figure 40.7 Chart using horizontal marks (with error bars) to indicate relat...

Figure 40.8 Histograms shown in a hybrid figure (also showing a scatterplot)...

Figure 40.9 A comparison of two box plots (or box‐and‐whisker charts) accomp...

Figure 40.10 An

infographic

– carefully selected material from a clinical gu...

Chapter 41

Figure 41.1 A Discussion that starts with a résumé of the study findings bef...

Figure 41.2 Critical appraisal of a study's results.

Figure 41.3 A summary box which outlines a study's importance and main findi...

Guide

Cover

Table of Contents

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Understanding Clinical Papers

Fourth Edition

David Bowers

Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Leeds, UK

Allan House

Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Leeds, UK

David Owens

Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Leeds, UK

Bridgette Bewick

Leeds Institute of Health Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Leeds, UK

This edition first published 2021© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd

Edition HistoryJohn Wiley & Sons (3e,2013)

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, except as permitted by law. Advice on how to obtain permission to reuse material from this title is available at http://www.wiley.com/go/permissions.

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Library of Congress Cataloging‐in‐Publication Data

Names: Bowers, David, 1938– author. | House, Allan, author. | Owens, David, 1954– author. | Bewick, Bridgette, author.Title: Understanding clinical papers / David Bowers, Allan House, David Owens, Bridgette Bewick.Description: Fourth edition. | Hoboken, NJ : John Wiley & Sons, Inc., [2021] | Includes bibliographical references and index.Identifiers: LCCN 2020024728 (print) | LCCN 2020024729 (ebook) | ISBN 9781119573166 (paperback) | ISBN 9781119572855 (adobe pdf) | ISBN 9781119573142 (epub)Subjects: MESH: Medical Writing–standards | Journalism, Medical | ReadingClassification: LCC R119 (print) | LCC R119 (ebook) | NLM WZ 345 | DDC 808.06/661–dc23LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2020024728LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2020024729

Cover Design: WileyCover Images: row of samples © Andrew Brookes/Getty Images, Stethoscope and digital tablet © Jamie Grill/Getty Images, Complete heart block © Keetapong Pongtipakorn/Shutterstock

Preface to the First Edition

Buy this book if you are a health‐care professional and you want some guidance in understanding the clinical research literature. It is designed to help you with reading research papers, by explaining their structure and the vocabulary they use. These essential first steps will make interpretation of clinical research that much easier for you. For example, the book will help with questions like:

Who were the authors, what is their standing, and can they be trusted?

What question or questions did they want to answer, and what was the clinical importance of doing so?

Who were the subjects in the study, how were they chosen, and were the methods used the most suitable?

How were the data collected? Was this the best approach?

What methods did the authors use to analyse the data, and were the methods employed appropriate?

What did they find? Were their conclusions consistent with their results?

Were there any shortcomings in the study? Do the authors acknowledge them?

What are the clinical implications of their results?

Does it all make sense?

This book is not an introduction to medical statistics, study design, epidemiology, systematic reviews, evidence‐based medicine, or critical appraisal, although we inevitably touch on all of these things (and more). Even so, if you are not already well versed in some of these fields, you should know a lot more by the time you get to the end.

We have concentrated on improving our readers’ understanding of quantitative research papers, and while qualitative papers contain several important elements which we have not been able to cover here, there are many other areas, particularly at the beginning and ends of papers, which readers of qualitative papers will find relevant to their needs.

Primarily, this book should be of interest to the following individuals:

Clinicians currently practising. This would include GPs, doctors in hospitals, in the community and in public health, nurses, midwives, health visitors, health educators and promoters, physiotherapists, dietitians, chiropodists, speech therapists, radiographers, pharmacists, and other clinically‐related specialists;

Clinicians of all types engaged in research activities: as part of their training; as a condition of their clinical duties; for postgraduate studies and courses; or for professional qualifications.

Those involved with the education and training of health professionals in colleges of health, in universities, and in in‐house training and research departments.

College, undergraduate, and postgraduate students in all medical and clinical disciplines which involve any element of research methods, medical statistics, epidemiology, critical appraisal, clinical effectiveness, evidence‐based medicine, and the like.

In addition, this book should appeal to individuals who although are not themselves clinicians but nonetheless find themselves in a clinical setting, and need some understanding of what the published clinical research in their area means. These people would include:

Clinical auditors and quality assessors

Clinical managers

Service managers, administrators, and planners

Those working in health authorities and in local government social and health departments

Purchasers of health provision.

People not actually employed in a clinical arena but who nonetheless have a professional or personal interest in the medical literature; for example, members of self‐help and support groups (e.g. migraine, stroke, diabetes, Alzheimer's, etc.); medical journalists; research‐fund‐providers; the educated, interested, lay public.

We have structured the contents of the book into a series of units whose sequence mirrors that of papers in most of the better‐quality journals. Thus we start with the preliminaries (title, authors, institution, journal type and status, and so on) and end with the epilogue (discussion, conclusions, and clinical implications). Throughout the book we have used a wide variety of extracts from recently published papers to illuminate our textual comments. In these we have focussed largely, but not solely, on examples of good practice in the hope that this will provide readers with some ‘how it should be done’ benchmarks. Any errors remain, of course, our own.

David Bowers, Allan House, and David OwensLeeds, 2000

Preface to the Second Edition

We received a great many favourable comments from those who used the first edition of this book – for which many thanks. Why then a second edition? The reason is the usual one in these circumstances – we think we can make the book even better. When we set out to write the first edition we had a good idea of what we wanted to include, but inevitably there was some jostling for the available space. In the end some things that we might have included had to be left on the cutting room floor. With this second edition we have now been able to include most of that excluded material. We have also taken the opportunity to respond to some helpful suggestions from readers. In addition to these changes we have now added a considerable amount of completely new material.

Thus this second edition includes a new chapter on measurement scales, and new or significantly expanded sections on the following: ethical considerations; abstracts; consent to randomization into trials; pragmatic and explanatory trials; intention‐to‐treat analysis; elements of probability; data transformation; non‐parametric tests; and systematic review, among others.

Moreover, there is a lot of new material in the chapters on regression – including more on variable selection and model building, and on Cox regression. A good deal of the material in the middle chapters of the book has been re‐arranged and improved to make for a better and more lucid flow (the treatment of dummy variables has been brought forward a chapter, for example).

We have all taken the opportunity to update many of the extracts from clinical papers which we use to illustrate the various ideas and procedures we describe, and also to revise much of the text in the book to improve clarity and understanding. We remain more than willing to receive any constructive comments and suggestions from readers. Otherwise we are confident that this is now an even better book than the original.

SOME NOTES ON STATISTICAL SOFTWARE

There are several statistical packages, of varying levels of sophistication and complexity, which can be used to analyse clinical data. Among the most widely used are the following:

CIA

(

Confidence Interval Analysis

)

EPI‐Info

Minitab

SPSS

(the

Statistics Package for the Social Sciences

)

STATA

S‐PLUS

In our opinion Minitab is the simplest and friendliest statistics package for the general user. SPSS is not quite as easy to use but handles cross‐tabulation of two variables rather better and has a wider range of the more sophisticated types of analyses. The choice of types of analysis and their outputs are perhaps easier to understand in Minitab than in SPSS. Each application has, of course, its limitations. To the best of our knowledge, Minitab does not do the McNemar test, nor does it have a clinically‐based survival analysis programme, nor allow for a direct calculation of Spearman's correlation coefficient (the data needs first to be ranked). On the other hand, SPSS does not allow a chi‐squared test to be done directly on a contingency table in the columns of the data sheet, nor does it provide confidence intervals for the difference between two proportions, or with the Mann–Whitney or Wilcoxon tests, all of which Minitab does. But as we have said, SPSS has a wider range of applications.

CIA, as its name implies, only does confidence interval calculations (but in this respect is very useful). EPI‐Info is a combination database and epidemiological tool, which originates from the Centre for Disease Control (CDC) in the USA. It has the advantage of being free (it can be downloaded from the internet along with a user's manual).

Most professional clinical statisticians will probably use either STATA or S‐PLUS; both more powerful and versatile than either Minitab or SPSS (but rather less easy to use).

We would not recommend Excel as a statistics programme since it is fundamentally a spreadsheet tool and thus has an extremely limited range of statistical functions – and in any case these are not set out in a way that is well‐suited to clinical research.

WRITING PAPERS FOR CLINICAL JOURNALS

Those of you who envisage writing up your research and submitting a paper to a clinical journal may find the following web site addresses (URLs) useful. They contain detailed advice and instructions to authors on what is required prior to submission: for example, how to contact the journal, what should be in the paper (order and content of sections), information on the required style, editorial policies and guidelines, and so on.

The first URL directs you towards a set of instructions to authors for each of over 3500 health and life‐sciences journals, worldwide. The second and third URLs relate specifically to the British Medical Journal, but contain a huge amount of detailed and splendidly informative material related to the preparation and submission of clinical papers, and collectively provide a set of desirable standards which anyone who is contemplating the submission of such a paper to the BMJ or any other journal should aspire to.

http://mulford.mco.edu/instr

http://bmj.bmjournals.com/advice

http://bmj.bmjjournals.com/advice/article_submissiom.shtml

David Bowers, Allan House, and David Owens School of Medicine, University of Leeds,Autumn, 2005

Preface to the Third Edition

It seems to us quite a long time since the second edition of Understanding Clinical Papers was published (in 2005). In the intervening years we have again (as we did for the previous editions) received from readers many favourable comments, as well as some useful suggestions. One suggestion that struck us as being eminently sensible, coinciding with our own thoughts, was that we should introduce material into the book which would help readers understand clinical papers with a qualitative design. Such papers are increasingly seen in the mainstream clinical journals (in addition of course to the specialist qualitative journals) and we feel that we should be providing readers with some help in making sense of this content.

The inclusion of five new chapters containing this qualitative material is the most important change in our book from the second edition. We are very pleased to have been able to welcome an experienced qualitative researcher as a co‐author, who has contributed this new material.

In addition, we have, not surprisingly, taken the opportunity to update many of the examples of clinical papers with which we illustrate the ideas contained throughout the book. At the same time, we have sharpened and clarified the text were we felt it was needed. We have added small amounts of new material here and there – where we felt that these additions, drawn from our familiarity with the evolving health research literature, would improve the book.

The book should appeal, as before, to doctors, nurses, health visitors, physiotherapists, radiographers, dietitians, speech therapists, health educators and promoters, podiatrists, and all of those other allied professionals (and students in each of these disciplines) – and to all of those involved in health research.

David Bowers, Bridgette Bewick, Allan House, and David OwensLeeds, 2013

Preface to the Fourth Edition

The third edition of this book was published in 2013: that's seven years ago! We are thankful that all of the previous editions were so well liked, and that we received so many favourable comments from readers. But seven years is a long time and we have felt for a while that the book needed refreshing to take into account readers’ suggestions and our own feelings about the potential for improvements. As a consequence, this fourth edition has been extensively revised and extended. The changes include four completely new chapters:

Studies of Complex Interventions.

Systematic Review of Qualitative Studies.

Research Using Already‐Collected Data. This new chapter will include material on missing data, confounding by indication, and other relevant topics.

Poisson Regression.

At the same time every other chapter has been extensively revised, and with much new material added, on, for example, the difference between clinical and statistical significance; reservations about the p‐value; the consequences of multiple testing and methods of correction; nested case–control studies; feasibility and pilot studies; cluster randomized trials; stratified random allocation; adaptive trial designs; sub‐group analysis; standardized guidelines for writing trials and reviews; and much more. In addition, we have improved the text throughout where we thought this would lead to better understanding. Importantly, we have also updated a great many of the examples from the literature.

As before, this edition of our book should appeal to all of those professionals involved in clinical work who wish to improve their understanding of the research literature.

David Bowers, Allan House, David Owens, and Bridgette BewickLeeds 2020

PART ISetting the Scene: Who Did What, and Why

CHAPTER 1Some Preliminaries

Before you start reading a paper, you could usefully ask one or two questions which help set the work in context:

Who wrote the paper?

In what sort of journal does the paper appear?

Who (and what) is acknowledged?

WHO WROTE THE PAPER?

Often, one person writes an article such as a review or an editorial. This is less common for papers describing the results of a research study. Because most research is a joint enterprise, papers describing research studies are usually published under the names of a number of people – the research team. From the list of authors, you can tell:

The range of expertise of the research team

. Professional backgrounds of the authors (and sometimes their level of seniority) are often included, with the address of each.

The research centre or centres involved in the study

. This is useful when you've been reading for a while and you know whose work to look out for – for whatever reason!

The principal researcher

. He or she is often named first, or sometimes identifiable as the only author whose full address and contact details are listed (called the corresponding author).

Figure 1.1 shows a typical example of a research project that required a collaborative effort.

Figure 1.1 Authors and research centres listed at the start of a research paper.

Source: Reprinted from Kuwawenaruwa et al. (2019) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2019.02.005

The list of authors may be quite long. The more people involved with a study, the less likely it is that one of them has a pre‐eminent position, so there may be no principal author. The authors may simply be listed in alphabetical order. They are listed at the top of research papers and (often) in guidance from the journal on how to cite the paper.

When a large study involving many sites is published, it may be that the work is written up by a small team, on behalf of the larger group. You may then find that there are some named authors, or only one or two, or (in very large studies) many authors are listed while the rest of the team is listed elsewhere – as in Figure 1.2. This type of multiple authorship is unavoidable if everybody is to get credit for participating in large studies, such as this project exploring the genetics of stroke.

Figure 1.2 Paper written by multiple authors on behalf of several research groups.

Source: From Pfeiffer et al. (2019).

An undesirable form of multiple authorship arises if members of an academic department attach their names to a paper when they had nothing to do with the study. This is sometimes called ‘gift authorship', although it isn't always given very freely. To try to stop this practice, many journals now expect each author to explain exactly what part he or she has played in the study. For this, and other useful information, you should turn to the Acknowledgements at the end of the paper.

IN WHAT SORT OF JOURNAL DOES THE PAPER APPEAR?

Not all journals are the same. Some are mainly aimed at members of a particular professional group, and therefore include political news, commentaries, and personal opinions. Others publish only research articles which have not appeared elsewhere, while some aim to mix these functions.

In some journals, the letters pages are designed to allow readers to express their opinions about articles which have appeared in previous issues. In others, the letters pages contain only descriptions of original studies.

What appears in a journal is decided by the Editor, nearly always with the help and advice of an Editorial Committee. The best journals also seek opinions from external referees who comment on papers sent to them and advise on suitability for publication. Because these referees are usually experts in the same field as the authors of the paper, this process is called ‘peer reviewing'. It isn't always easy to tell whether papers for a journal are peer‐reviewed, which is unfortunate because the peer‐reviewing process is the best means of establishing the quality of a journal's contents. You shouldn't trust the results of any data‐containing study if it appears in a journal which does not use the peer‐reviewing system.

Some journals produce supplements, which are published in addition to the usual regular issues of the main journal. They may be whole issues given over to a single theme or to describing presentations from a conference or symposium. Often they are produced (unlike the main journals) with the help of sponsorship from pharmaceutical companies. Papers in these supplements may not have been reviewed by the same process as papers in main journals and for that reason they tend not to be of as high quality.

Another way to judge the quality of a journal is to check its impact factor – a measure of the frequency with which papers in the journal are quoted by other researchers.1 The impact factor is only a rough guide because high‐quality journals that cover very specialized topics will inevitably have lower ratings than journals with a wider readership such as those describing cancer research or aimed at a general medical audience.

A frequently cited marker of journal quality is whether it is indexed – that is, whether it is registered on one of the major bibliographic databases such as PubMed. Being indexed isn't much of a marker of quality, but not being indexed should raise questions.

The rapid increase in the number of online journals raises other questions about quality. Many of these are open access – that is, you don't have to subscribe to be able to read them. They cover their costs by charging authors a publication fee – so there may be a financial incentive to publish, and the barrier of limited space is not the issue it is with paper journals.

To summarize – there are several pointers to journal quality: whether it uses peer review; its impact factor; whether it is indexed, and of course its reputation in the scientific community. But these are just that, pointers: there's no way to avoid developing some critical appraisal skills so you can judge for yourself the quality of an article regardless of the journal in which it appears.

WHO (AND WHAT) IS ACKNOWLEDGED?

It is tempting to treat the Acknowledgements at the end of a paper as being a bit like the credits after a film – only of interest to insiders. But they contain interesting information. For example, who is credited with work, but does not feature as an author? This has often been the fate of medical statisticians and others who offer specialist skills for the completion of one task in the study. If the study required special expertise – such as advanced statistics, economic analysis, supervision of therapists – then the necessary ‘expert' should be a member of the research team and acknowledged. If not, then either the expert was not a member of the team or somebody isn't getting credit where it is due. To ensure that co‐authorship is earned, and to guard against research fraud, the Acknowledgements in many journals now also contain a statement from each author about his or her individual contribution.

The Acknowledgements section from a multi‐author paper on HIV showed what additional help the research team received (Figure 1.3). It also contains an indication of the source of funding that supported the research. This is of interest because external funding may bring with it extra safeguards as to the rigour with which work was conducted. On the other hand, it may lead to a conflict of interest (for example if a pharmaceutical or other commercial company has funded research into one of its own products).

Figure 1.3 Acknowledgement of statistical, financial, and other support at the end of a paper.

Source: From Long et al. (2000).

Declaring a conflict of interest is not the same as admitting to a guilty secret. Its aim is to ensure that readers, when they are making their judgements about the study, are informed that there may be non‐scientific influences on the conduct or interpretation of a study.

Although it is usually put at the bottom of the title page rather than in the Acknowledgements, the other piece of information to look out for is advice from the journal on how to cite the paper you are reading. Typically this citation is presented in one of a number of formats that include title, authors, journal name, year, volume, and page numbers. Recently this approach has been supplemented by provision of a DOI (Digital Object Identifier) which is a standardized unique number given to many (but not all) articles, papers, and books, by some publishers, to identify a particular publication.

Note

1

You can check the impact factor of a journal at a number of websites, including, for example, the Thomson Reuters (formerly ISI)

Journal Citation Reports

http://isiknowledge.com/jcr

(accessed 19.02.19).

CHAPTER 2The Abstract and Introduction

At or near the beginning of most papers you will find an Abstract and an Introduction.

THE ABSTRACT

If the title of an article doesn't give you a clear enough idea of what it's about, then most papers reporting primary research data start with an Abstract – a brief summary of the whole paper that appears immediately below the title.

The purpose of this brief summary is to help the reader decide if they want to go on to read the paper in detail, by outlining the content of the research and its main findings. A good Abstract should help the reader decide – if this study has been well conducted, then is it one about which I would be interested enough to read further?

Some journals require authors to provide structured Abstracts – using headings equivalent to those that appear in the main text. A typical example is shown in Figure 2.1, from a study of a day treatment programme for patients with eating disorders. Some Abstracts are unstructured and simply give a brief narrative account of the accompanying paper as in Figure 2.2, from a qualitative study on the attitudes of young male offenders to fatherhood. The decision about which style of Abstract to use is determined not by the author, but by the journal.

Figure 2.1 An example of a structured Abstract – this one from a trial of two treatment programmes for patients with eating disorders.

Source: From Kong (2005) with permission from John Wiley & Sons.

Figure 2.2 An unstructured Abstract accompanied by a list of Keywords indicating the article's content.

Source: From Buston (2010), © 2010, with permission from Elsevier.

A list of Keywords may accompany the Abstract, if the journal requires it. Their purpose is to assist readers who are searching for articles on particular topics. For such a list the words may come from a standard source decided by the journal or they may be chosen by the authors themselves.

THE INTRODUCTION

After the Abstract comes an introductory section. Its aim is to provide some background information that makes it clear why the study described in the paper has been undertaken. The general topic area of the paper may be very familiar, but even so (perhaps especially so) the authors will probably give some summary of its importance, possibly along the lines of:

Is it clinically important?

Is it about a symptom that affects quality of life or causes major treatment difficulties?

Is there a public health importance?

Is it about an illness that represents a big burden for the community – in terms of chronic handicap, or costs to health or social services?

Is the interest theoretical?

Will further study help us to understand the causes of a condition or its consequences?

Figure 2.3 shows the Introduction to a study which examined the effect of two ways of presenting information to women who were making decisions about antenatal testing.

Figure 2.3 Explaining the background to a research study.

Source: From Graham et al. (2000), © 2000, with permission from BMJ Publishing Group Ltd.

These questions will normally be discussed by reference to existing evidence. The Introduction to a paper is not the place to look for a comprehensive literature review, and introductory sections in most papers are brief, but there are one or two pointers to help you decide if the evidence is being presented in a fair and unbiased way:

Is there reference to a systematic review (see

Chapters 10

and

11

)? Or if not, to a search strategy which the authors used to identify relevant evidence? For an example, see

Figure 2.4

, taken from a study of the association between birthweight and adult blood pressure.

Is the evidence mainly from the authors' own group or do the authors quote a range of evidence, even if it is not in support of their own views?

Figure 2.4 Introduction explaining the rationale for the study.

Source: Reproduced from: Shanahan et al. (2019).

Many clinical studies are carried out because the evidence is ambiguous or contradictory. Is there a dilemma which is posed by the evidence and is it clearly spelled out in the Introduction?

Generally speaking, the justification for a new study is that the existing evidence is unsatisfactory and a typical Introduction summarizes why, as in Figure 2.4 from a study on the use of social media to post about self‐harm. The commonest justifications for new research are that:

Different studies have come to different conclusions about the topic and it isn't possible to come to an answer without new work.

The evidence cannot be applied in the setting being considered by the authors. For example, good evidence may cease to be of value simply because it is old – trials showing the benefit of treatment may no longer be useful if a disorder changes so that its sensitivity to treatment changes. Similarly, evidence from one part of the world cannot always be applied freely elsewhere.

The evidence may be incomplete. For example, we may know that rates of smoking are increasing among young women but we don't know why.

The evidence may be of poor quality.

If these elements of the Introduction are well presented, then it should be clear what the paper is about and why the authors have chosen to conduct the work that they have. Armed with this background briefing, you can now move on to check the specific objectives of the authors' work (see Chapter 3).

ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS