AI + The New Human Frontier E-Book

Erica Orange

• Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
• Kategorie: Fachliteratur
• Sprache: Englisch

Seitenzahl: 428

Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2024

Beschreibung

A critical discussion of AI as a transformative opportunity for humanity

AI + The New Human Frontier: Reimagining the Future of Time, Trust + Truth by Erica Orange, a renowned futurist, offers a compelling exploration of generative AI's potential to enhance human creativity rather than replace it. This pivotal book navigates how AI tools will help shape the human experience, and aid in augmenting human ingenuity and imagination.

The author eloquently argues that the essence of human intelligence—our curiosity, critical thinking, empathy, and more—is not only irreplaceable but will become increasingly valuable as AI evolves to take on routine tasks. AI + the New Human Frontier is a clarion call for embedding trust, human oversight and judgement into AI development, ensuring that the technology amplifies our most human capabilities. At a time when the lines between what is real, fake, true and false are becoming more blurred, reliance on human-centric solutions, not just technological ones, will become more critical.

Why AI + The New Human Frontier is a must-read:

• Navigate the Future with Confidence: Prepare yourself for the future with groundbreaking perspectives on the relationship between humans and AI. Find out how to futureproof against the challenges of tomorrow and seize the opportunities presented by technological advancements. 
• Understand how to capitalize on the Potential of AI: Learn how the next generation of AI tools can expand human creativity and intelligence, not diminish it. Discover the crucial role of human oversight in creating AI technologies that enhance our capabilities and work alongside us.
• Amplify Your Ability to leverage the human advantage: Understand why and how AI's advancement will make human intuition, empathy, and critical thinking more essential than ever. Get insights into how to leverage your most human-centric skills in an AI-driven world.

Perfect for business leaders, managers, executives, and professionals navigating the new landscape of technology, AI + The New Human Frontier provides not only a vision of the future but also practical advice on thriving in an AI-enhanced world. Add this book to your library to ensure you're ready for the transformative changes that lie ahead.

Leseprobe

Table of Contents

Cover

Table of Contents

Title Page

Foreword

Introduction

Overview

PART I: Translating the Future

CHAPTER 1: A Voyage into the Future

Note

CHAPTER 2: The Sky's the Limit

From Headwinds to Tailwinds

CHAPTER 3: How To Think about the Future

The Drunkard's Search Principle

The Interconnectedness of the Future

The Future Is a Rorschach Test

Notes

PART II: Time + Templosion

CHAPTER 4: The Speeding Up of Time

Simultaneous Time

Transformations of the Economy

CHAPTER 5: A World of Templosion

CHAPTER 6: Turning Templosion into an Opportunity

PART III: Technology: Artificial Intelligence

CHAPTER 7: The Acceleration of AI

The Russian Nesting Dolls of AI

Notes

CHAPTER 8: Generative AI's Inflection Point

Separating Hype from Reality

Templosion as a Limiting Factor?

Notes

CHAPTER 9: The Evolving Work Landscape

The Widening Economic Chasm

The Widening Workforce Chasm

Some Jobs Are Going Away …

But Most Jobs Are Not Going Away—They Are Changing

Enhancement vs. Replacement

The Intergenerational Workforce Challenge

The War for AI Talent

AI, Copyright + Intellectual Property (IP)

Incentives and Strategic Alignment

Notes

CHAPTER 10: Risks in Generative AI: Data Inbreeding

The Importance of Data Integrity

Must We All Become “Prompt Engineers?”

Notes

CHAPTER 11: The Sustainability Paradox

Notes

CHAPTER 12: Pumping the Brakes on AI: Regulatory Considerations

The AI Goldilocks Zone

Notes

PART IV: Augmented Intelligence

CHAPTER 13: From AI to IA: Intelligence Augmentation

The Future of Human Creativity + Curation

The Value of Expertise

Tapping into Human Cognition

The Augmentation of Blue-Collar Work

AI for All: Inequality + Inclusion

Notes

CHAPTER 14: Human Supervision Over AI

The Trolley Problem in AI

Is It True That If AI Doesn't Displace You, a Person Using AI Will?

The Future of Human Agency

Notes

CHAPTER 15: AI Creating Its Own Careers … for Us

Social Sci-Fi Scenario: A Post-Work Future

Notes

CHAPTER 16: The Rise of Data Colonialism

Are We All Becoming Data Laborers?

Notes

CHAPTER 17: The Competency Tree

The Trunk: Intelligent…Not Smart

The Underlying ROOTS Structure

Notes

CHAPTER 18: A Resurgence of the Humanities

Doubling Down on Innovative Talent Strategies

Notes

CHAPTER 19: The Workspace Culture Chain

Technological Monitoring as a Culture Killer

Creation of a New Culture Framework

New Human-Centric Approaches

AI-Driven Cultural Crossroads

Notes

PART V: Trust + Truth

CHAPTER 20: The Trust Imperative

Institutional Trust

Generational Trust

Navigating the Trust Staircase

Notes

CHAPTER 21: Trust + the Changing Nature of Influence

Interpersonal Trust: Trust in Our “AI Companions”

AI + Virtual Influence: Who and What We Trust

Notes

CHAPTER 22: Trust + Privacy

A World of “Cyberinsecurity”

“Technonationalism,” Trust + the Rise of Digital Barricading

Notes

CHAPTER 23: Algorithmic Feudalism

The Rise of Omni-Algorithms

Notes

CHAPTER 24: The Truth Imperative

The Liar's Dividend

Notes

CHAPTER 25: The Impact of Synthetic Content

The Rise of Deepfakes

Deepfakes, Synthetic Media + Geopolitics

Nanoinfo

Subliminal Intelligence

Is Our Brain the Last Frontier?

Notes

CHAPTER 26: When Truth Decay Meets Trust Decay

The Rise in Tech-Enabled Conspiratorial Thinking

The Rise in Tech-Enabled Neotribalism

Notes

CHAPTER 27: Assessing + Achieving Trustworthiness

Ascending the Trust Staircase

Potential “Vaccinations”

Vaccines for Deepfake Immunity?

Notes

CHAPTER 28: The Elevation of Human Judgment

XAI: Explainability in AI

The Rise of the CEEO

Investing in People

Notes

PART VI: Tomorrow

CHAPTER 29: Shifting from Education to Learning

AI Literacy + the Future of Thought

Reprioritizing Vocational Training

Understanding the Next Generation

Notes

CHAPTER 30: Redefining What It Means to Be Human

AI Consciousness

Belief Systems in the Digital World

The Countertrend: Tactile + Nostalgic

Notes

CHAPTER 31: The Future of Mental Health

Notes

CHAPTER 32: The Other AI: The Aging Imperative

Notes

CHAPTER 33: AI, Health + Scientific Breakthroughs

When AI Meets Scientific Discovery

The Magellan Principle: AI's True Killer Apps

Notes

CHAPTER 34: The New Human Frontier

Finding Balance + Telling Better Stories

Rediscovering the Lost Art of Boredom

Lifelong Forgetting + the Lost Art of Nuance

CHAPTER 35: Not All Change Is Fast, and Not Everything Is Changing

The Value of Simplicity

Notes

CHAPTER 36: The Power of Imagination

Thriving as Diamonds, Not Coal

In Search of New Frontiers

Note

Afterword: Putting This into Practice

Acknowledgments

About the Author

About The Future Hunters

Index

Copyright

Dedication

End User License Agreement

Guide

Cover

Title Page

Copyright

Dedication

Foreword

Introduction

Table of Contents

Begin Reading

Afterword: Putting This into Practice

Acknowledgments

About the Author

Index

End User License Agreement

Pages

iii

xv

xvi

xvii

xviii

xix

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

101

102

103

104

105

106

107

108

109

110

111

112

113

114

115

116

117

118

119

120

121

122

123

124

125

126

127

128

129

130

131

132

133

134

135

136

137

138

139

140

141

142

143

144

145

146

147

148

149

150

151

152

153

154

155

156

157

158

159

160

161

162

163

164

165

166

167

168

169

170

171

172

173

174

175

176

177

178

179

180

181

182

183

184

185

186

187

188

189

190

191

192

193

194

195

196

197

198

199

200

201

202

203

204

205

206

207

208

209

211

213

215

216

217

218

219

220

iv

v

221

AI + The New Human Frontier

Reimagining the Future of Time, Trust + Truth

ERICA ORANGE

Foreword

Everyone is talking about artificial intelligence (AI) today. The topic is all over coverage on legacy media and chatter on social media. And, as futurists, AI comes up in many conversations we have with friends and colleagues. The rising prominence of AI is obvious, but real questions remain about how much impact it will truly have in many different aspects of both our work lives and our personal lives. Around the world, people are attempting to separate the signal from the noise in a world of extreme hype around the future of this technology. Some areas of our lives will be profoundly impacted by AI, while others, not as much.

As we look toward the future of AI, perhaps the two most important areas for consideration are the why and the who of AI.

The why revolves around the reasons we should use AI in the first place. Together, those reasons should serve as the guiding principles for all AI research and deployment in the future. Why are we investing in it? Is it merely the next step in the evolution of technology, or can it do things far better than other current technologies? At the enterprise level, how can it make our work and businesses more productive?

And at the human level, what are the many ways that AI could impact our lives? Will it do so for the better? Will we even be aware of AI as it's being incorporated into our day-to-day experiences? Will we be able to trust it?

Today, most innovators and business leaders are determining how to strategically pursue AI, when to invest, and where to invest. But the who relates to a fundamental, and often overlooked, aspect of the future of AI: the human implications of all of this.

Which people will we need to hire more of in the future? Who will specialize in AI? Which human skill sets will be required? What will the human/machine interface look like in the years ahead? Which human jobs will disappear? And which new jobs—and career fields—will rise like phoenixes from all of this transformation? What will the future of humanity look like in the face of all this technological change? How will we adapt? How will we best optimize those things that make us uniquely human? Will AI soon overtake our capabilities and possibly our intelligence? What about in the long term? Or…ever?

This book addresses these critical questions at precisely the time when it's needed the most. We are at a civilizational inflection point right now—at this very juncture in our coevolution with technology.

This book is also a realistic and pragmatic assessment of the AI landscape—something that is far too often absent in a world characterized by attention, clicks, and sensationalism. For example, while AI will impact many things about the world around us, it certainly won't impact everything. Many of the loudest voices in the room tend to fall into one of two camps, both of which assign almost godlike characteristics to AI. In one camp are those who promote the universally transformative power of AI, and thus believe that we should be pursuing the development of this technology as aggressively as possible, with few—or no—guardrails. In the other camp are those who tend toward more dystopian perspectives on the future of this technology. They believe that AI could destabilize human labor and other aspects of the economy—and that once we open “Pandora's box,” we'll never be able to control the unintended consequences of it. Both camps will be proven right…and both camps will be proven wrong. There are no absolutes in any of this. It should never be considered a zero-sum game.

As futurists, we can't predict the future with absolute certainty, but we can make enlightened projections based on studying past patterns, current trends, and technological shifts. This book will be relevant not just now, but in years to come, because it seeks less to make bets on different versions (or iterations) of AI as it exists today. This book, instead, seeks to answer the fundamental questions that will impact the newly emerging human frontier—the somewhat uncharted and evolving nexus between us and the technology around us. The book does this by breaking down the future into three fundamental areas that will impact this new human frontier: time, truth, and trust—three things that are more important than ever but which are perhaps also at a greater premium than ever before. This book will be just as relevant 3, 5, or 10 years in the future as it is today.

And it is written by someone who has dedicated many years of her life, both personally and professionally, to the understanding of all of this. I know this not just because Erica is my partner in business but also because she's my partner in life. I see her passion for these subjects every day, and I marvel at her innate curiosity and determination to always evolve her own understanding. She also has the unique ability to transform highly complex information into more relatable concepts, and she has done exactly that within this book.

She and I often end our days with a drink, sitting and discussing our perspectives on technology, culture, the universe, and all things existential and interesting to us. We bounce thoughts off one another, challenge each other, and consider what things could look like for us, our family, and for society in the future. And we have these constant conversations because they're fun … and because they're important.

To the future.

Jared Weiner

EVP + Chief Strategy Officer

The Future Hunters

Introduction

My now 7-year-old son's favorite “relaxing” bedtime book is Who Would Win? Extreme Animal Rumble. Sixteen creatures in a bracketed battle. Single elimination. Nothing like a fight to the death between sharks, dinosaurs, deadly insects, and jungle animals to lull him into a peaceful sleep at night. He's so inspired by these rumbles, he has taken to writing his own version, which he calls “The Intelligence Rumble”—smart animals vs. smart animals. (He excitedly gave me the full rundown on the list of competitors, which include the highly anticipated matchups of giant squid vs. octopus and crow vs. raven.)

“The Intelligence Rumble?” I asked, as thoughts swirled in my head. “What do you think about this intelligence rumble: humans vs. robots. What would a matchup look like? Who would win?”

“Well, humans are smarter than robots because they invented robots; robots did not invent people,” he reasoned. “People can control what robots do, but robots cannot control what people do. Some people are smarter than robots, and some robots are smarter than people. Both minds are getting smarter and smarter, but robots are catching up a little bit to humans.”

“Oh, and add this part,” he later added over one of our breakfast chats. “Humans have been evolving and have been on this planet for a lot longer than robots. So, they must be smarter.”

It's amazing to see how new perspectives of the future can unfold when the world is seen through the eyes of a child. And once I got over my budding futurist-in-training's mini soliloquy and let his words and insights sink in, it got me thinking about several questions worth pondering: Will there ever be a clear victor in an artificial intelligence (AI) vs. human rumble? Will we be constantly jockeying for position? Or, will we coevolve less in competition and more in collaboration with each other? AI is evolving exponentially faster than humans are. Will our evolution speed up as an adaptation? Is this already happening over just a few generations?

The future holds incredible promise—and the promise of myriad technological advancements, the biggest of which, right now, is AI. Revolutionary breakthroughs in AI will transform our lives in ways never thought possible. It will likely become a more integral part of our existences, opening entirely new vistas of human possibility and ushering in a world that is anchored more around human capabilities. Its applications are limitless. And this is an existential paradox. Could we (and would we) invent technology that could render us obsolete? If so, the societal (and civilizational) shift would be profound. In the near term, however, we are just beginning to grapple with the implications of what should perhaps be reframed as artificial smart versus true artificial intelligence.

I, for one, would like to be a cheerleader for humanity. I believe AI will not decide how AI is used. We will decide how AI is used. In the end, however, there are other indications that perhaps we won't be in control of those decisions. Ultimately, we will have to decide—if and/or when we maintain control—whether AI is used for constructive or destructive ends.

The rules that once governed much of our day-to-day realities are being rewritten as AI reshapes industries and disrupts traditional business models. As we seek to shed light on our interrelationship with AI, it will increasingly be one that is less about “us vs. it” and more about “us and it.” AI will continue unabated to challenge older (and outdated) frontiers of human knowledge. As it does so, it may also allow us to expand to entirely new ones. New understanding, insight, and knowledge could challenge us to rethink our unique value proposition in a changing world. While concerns about obsolescence are normal, humans will not face a robotic takeover; rather, we will all be faced with navigating a reality in which many facets of our lives are symbiotically interwoven with technology. AI is—and will continue to be—a beacon of transformative power, but its abilities will be revealed only when combined with human ingenuity. The fusion of the two will not serve as a harbinger of human obsolescence but rather as a magnifier of human capability. AI's true revolutionary potential as both an accelerator and an amplifier lie in its ability to unlock new frontiers of human creativity and thought.

Change is inevitable and constant. It has always been a driving force as it has long helped enable progress in many, if not all, aspects of life. Right now, there is a split between nostalgia for what was and enthusiasm for what could be. We are standing at a crossroads. Finding one's purpose and employment in life will become a self-reliant, ever-shifting journey, especially as traditional safety nets are no longer guaranteed in an age of ever-advancing AI. It is easy to get caught up in fear and doubt about what lies ahead. I get it, and I feel it, too. I think about this as a parent, going down rabbit holes about the existential threats that will face my son's generation and those that will come after. I think about the things he'll need to navigate that other generations never faced—all those threats that only existed once in sci-fi novels or were posited as academic conjecture about a more distant time.

No matter how often we may dwell in these thoughts and ponder the personal effects of these emerging realities, this book is here to offer a different perspective: one of hope. Hope for the future, hope for the next generation, and hope for humanity. The future may seem daunting at times, but it is filled with endless pathways ripe for discovery. It is a blank canvas. This book aims to inspire readers to embrace their role in shaping the future. It reminds us that despite the challenges we may face, we possess an innate ability to adapt and overcome.

Do we believe in the potential of people with as much certainty as we believe in the potential of AI?

If so, this means that we cannot be entrenched in the old ways of doing things and the old ways of solving problems. Because in the future we are rapidly moving into, we shouldn't be afraid of new ideas. We should be afraid of the old ones that no longer work. Today's global challenges cannot be addressed with yesterday's thinking.

Overview

This book has six parts:

Part I

(Translating the Future)

focuses on contextualizing the future and beginning to see it through new eyes. It's about leaving past assumptions behind and approaching the ways in which we see the world, our lives, our jobs, and our organizations in a new light.

Part II

(Time + Templosion)

focuses on a term that we, as a firm (The Future Hunters), coined almost a decade and a half ago:

Templosion

…the implosion of time. Templosion refers to the idea that the biggest of things and the biggest of events are happening in shorter periods of time. Time horizons are being reduced, and our experience of time is in overdrive. It is creating a world that is more nonlinear and boundaryless.

Part III

(Technology: Artificial Intelligence)

focuses on the exponential explosion of AI and how it is forcing older ways of working to evolve. It highlights both the opportunities and the threats and separates the hype from reality.

Part IV

(Augmented Intelligence)

focuses on the human experience and how it will be transformed in an age of AI. We are quickly being catapulted into a world defined not just by automation but by

augmentation

. This is creating a dynamic that is less about replacement and more about enhancement. Human elements such as intuition, empathy, sense-making, and lived experience will become more valued than ever before.

Part V

(Trust + Truth)

highlights the growing vacuum of trust and how that vacuum is giving new urgency not just to transparency but to honesty. Building trust will be an ongoing process, particularly as AI makes it harder to know who or what to trust. We are also navigating a macro-environment where it is getting harder to decipher between what is real, fake, true, and false. The distortion of the truth is being exacerbated by a climate of rampant distrust and mis-, dis-, mal-, and digitally derived information (MDMD).

Part VI

(Tomorrow)

is about the future frontiers of human thought … and humanity, at large. It also addresses some of the other current states of AI that may impact the future of human experience. Ultimately, it seeks to answer how we can create a future where progress prevails over stagnation. How can possibility prevail over pessimism? How can action prevail over apathy? How can creation prevail over crisis? And how can imagination prevail over inertia?

PART ITranslating the Future

Technology has long captivated us with the promise of change. But a more dynamic understanding of why technology changes, how we change with it, and how we might govern it is needed. Part I focuses on how to better translate the future and make sense of the shifts many of us are feeling and experiencing—both in our own lives and in the world at large. We will start by contextualizing the pace of change and challenging many of the assumptions we make about how the future operates.

CHAPTER 1A Voyage into the Future

It's a tale as old as tech. Radio Shack. Neon phones. Game Boys. VHS tapes. Dial-up Internet. In 1999, I left for college with my bright purple Space Age iMac. With its sleek design and vibrant colors, it became more than just a computer—it felt like a statement piece. And let's not forget those coveted .edu email addresses. They were like badges of honor and status symbols. As were our now cringe-worthy AOL Instant Messenger names. Ah, nostalgia. It's a feeling that takes us back to what seemed like simpler times, reminding us of the moments when technology was just beginning to shape our lives and shape our memories.

Many of our memories are also defined through the music from our youth and the technologies that shaped the way we experienced and consumed it. From vinyl records to cassette tapes, CDs to MP3 players, and now streaming platforms, each advancement has brought with it a sense of nostalgia for the previous era. Whether it's hearing a song from our childhood or rediscovering an album that defined a specific moment in our lives, music has the power to connect us with memories and emotions like nothing else. And for 8th grade me, this cassette single was in my boombox rotation: “Fantastic Voyage.” It's a song that instantly brings you back to the 1990s. I would sing this funkadelic hook on repeat. (For anyone of the same generation, you're probably swaying to it in your head right now.) Coolio's catchy chorus was a song, when you got down to it, about people coming together. Coming together for a fantastic voyage in search of something better.

When taken more broadly, humanity has always been on a fantastic voyage. Life is a journey of unknowns. Of risks. Of challenges. Of chaos—some of it stressful, some of it beautiful. It is easy to get caught up in all the different ways we experience chaos because it can be both thrilling and deeply discomforting at the same time. But we have a choice: we can be more passive, adopting a wait-and-see approach to help to define the future, or we can embark on a voyage where we seek to drive new frontiers of human progress and push the boundaries of what we believe … and believe to be possible.

We, in many ways, are moving away from the familiar, and it is forcing us to define and redefine what it truly means to be human in a world of complexities. We are entering a period of transformation, moving from the world as we have always known it to a profoundly new one—a world with new dimensions, boundaries, and delineations. Our macro environment is in flux and forcing us to continually challenge our long-held assumptions about how the world works and what it takes to succeed in it.

As these complexities multiply, thinking about the future can be overwhelming. And what's more is that thinking about our role, as humans, in this ever-changing world can be overwhelming. One reason for this is because we are entering a future in which decisions in the home, in the marketplace, in the workplace, and perhaps even in the voting booth, will increasingly be made by smarter and more sophisticated forms of technology. These technologies—most notably, AI—will increasingly instruct us about aspects of behavior, security, risk, education, and work. AI will undoubtedly yield greater influence across many facets of our lives—both personally and professionally.

These evolutions, however, when taken in their totality, represent not just challenges (and there will be significant challenges) but opportunities. Opportunities that, if we approach the future without all the baggage of outmoded thinking, will outweigh the challenges. By zeroing in on the opportunities, we are given a chance to rethink and reimagine the way we've always done things.

So, rest assured: the future is there for humanity. We will never be obsolete. But we're at a tip of the iceberg moment. Seismic shifts in AI are forcing us to double down on how to coevolve alongside of it, and it's forcing us to double down on our own humanity. We also must remember this: the future does not belong just to AI, nor does it belong just to humans; rather, we will coexist with the technology that increasingly surrounds us. Just as we always have … and just as we always will. As we have seen throughout history, from prehistoric times to modern times, humans have always adapted and evolved alongside their tools and technologies. The emergence of AI should be viewed as another step in this ongoing process.

This goes back to the earliest of humans. From the discovery of fire to the invention of the wheel, our ability to harness tools has propelled us forward. Archaeologists recently reported a discovery on South Africa's Cape Coast that upends our prevailing assumptions about the use of one of humankind's oldest forms of “wearable technology.” Ancient humans may have worn shoes as early as the Middle Stone Age, a period believed to date between 75,000 and 150,000 years ago. While this doesn't conform to modern definitions of wearable technology (e.g., fitness trackers and smartwatches), that is very much what they were. They also represent one of humankind's earliest technological innovations.1 And it certainly captures the essence of how humans and technology have progressed together. Our evolution and technology's evolution are intertwined. The only thing that makes this dynamic different from other periods of time is that this coevolution is happening at a faster pace and is driven by more complex and sophisticated systems and tools.

Change has always been with us. It is as old as human history and is a constant in our existences. What is new is the pace of change. Change that is driven in large part by the rate of technological innovation around the world. It is human nature to view some change as scary. We all do. It is why we have an inborn response to fear. A core part of human nature—and our biological makeup—consists of self-preservation. It is an instinctive tendency to ensure survival. While it is normal to view these changes as frightening, they also represent tremendous chances to rethink our approaches toward the future. People always ask me: “How can I get better at embracing change?” I wish I had a crystal ball to answer that one. But life—and the future—isn't about simply embracing change. It's about learning how to navigate it. Hope serves as an anchor during turbulent times, reminding us of our resilience and capacity for growth. It fuels our belief in the power of collaboration and collective action.

Note

1

https://thedebrief.org/middle-stone-age-discovery-may-extend-earliest-use-of-ancient-wearable-technology-as-far-back-as-150000-years

CHAPTER 2The Sky's the Limit

“Are you ready?” asked the instructor harnessed to my back. Without me even attempting to utter a response, we shuffled out of the prop plane and began our free fall. Terminal velocity. That is the fastest speed you can reach on a skydive. As I fell 120 miles an hour through the air, aerial images captured that simultaneous feeling of fear and elation. Those images also somehow managed to capture me looking like a baby pterodactyl with crooked dangling arms, wide eyes, and a gaping mouth. I looked completely scared.

I was gasping for air, repeating not-so-reassuring mantras in my head on loop, and hoping that the New Zealander on my back knew what he was doing. All of this in probably only 45 seconds. A mere snapshot in time. But a moment of significance. No matter how quickly the adrenaline was pumping, I still felt oddly reassured. Why? Because I knew I was secure. I was both free and secure at the same time. My free fall through the sky felt risky, but I always knew I had the safeguard of a parachute. The parachute gave me the comfort that I would eventually slow down. It gave me a semblance of control. I could steer my own direction and navigate my own path. I trusted it, and that sense of trust gave me a sense of safety.

Skydiving is the ultimate trust fall. The entire thing depends on trust. When you approach the open door and wait for the go-ahead, the only thing you can do is trust. Trust between the diver and the instructor. Trust in the equipment. Trust in the entire experience. Without trust, skydiving would feel incredibly risky and daunting.

Remember the “trust fall” game when you were young? I remember playing this on the playground and always trying to assess the presumed physical strength of the kid next in line who would be trusted with catching my body weight. Intentionally falling backwards requires a great deal of trust. We placed our trust in the tiny people we believed could carry our weight. Now, as adults, we reflect on the concept and realize that at its core, it is about abandoning your sense of control. It's about being vulnerable. Having confidence in people. Trusting that you will be caught.

Just like with skydiving, the future, in many ways, feels like a trust fall. And increasingly, it feels like a free fall. Turn on any news channel or go on social media and it will elicit this same feeling. Dread. Anxiety. Fear. We have all felt it—we still feel it. The pandemic. Gun violence. The politicization of everything. Tribalism. Climate change. Income inequality. Trade wars. Threats to our democratic institutions. The destruction of the natural habitat. The rapidly growing and often unchecked powers unleashed by modern technology. The weaponization of social media. The mental health epidemic. Escalating geopolitical conflicts. And the list goes on and on. When taken in sum, these examples—along with countless others—signify tremendous challenges. Challenges that make it seem as if we are collectively maneuvering through some type of dystopian sci-fi movie. Each one of us is trying to make sense of things. Trying to understand where the world is moving. Trying to figure out what it all means. And the feeling that we are coming up short is a common one.

Many of us feel this way because we are constantly hammered over the head with new and conflicting information. We are being bombarded by a steady and never-ending flow of information, and this is making us feel like we are swimming upstream against a tide of information overload. And as this information overload fights harder and harder to gain our attention, we might feel like we are not just swimming upstream but drowning in it. Anxiety and stress are on the rise globally, and many people feel as if they are losing a sense of control.

From Headwinds to Tailwinds

When seen through this lens, change can be viewed as … well, a lot. We only have a finite amount of mental bandwidth. That's why it's natural to focus on the external difficulties we are faced with today. We can refer to those external factors as the headwinds. At times it can feel quite dizzying to try and navigate these different pathways. It might seem as if we have lost agency over our own lives.

We are being catapulted into a future that is growing more complex by the day. The expectations, the risks, the challenges—all of these have escalated. We can try as hard as we want to slow down time, but things never operate this way. We can attempt to cut ourselves off and shield ourselves from the myriad headwinds, but those headwinds are hard to ignore and hard to silence—especially when we are in free fall.

But our parachute—the one to help make us future-ready—is this: it's learning how to move our focus away from the headwinds and toward the tailwinds. The tailwinds push us; they don't push up against us. Recognizing the opportunities isn't always easy, especially when there is so much uncertainty out there. But a part of our collective trust fall resides in identifying the opportunities: those tailwinds that can propel us forward.

Today we sit at an inflection point. Societally. Culturally. Technologically. Economically. Environmentally. Politically. Organizationally. Individually. We are living through a time of profound transformation, which is leading us to look for ways to be more agile, resilient, and ready for future disruption. We will all need the courage to take on challenges and embrace the ambiguity of the future.

Developments in AI are shifting daily. There are new applications, new chatbots, new tools, new corporate pivots, new capabilities, new entrants into the market, new job projections, new … everything. It's overwhelming. You feel as if you can't keep up. Not only do we need a parachute, but we need a roadmap, too.

When I was talking about this recently with a wise friend, she said to me: “Irritated oysters make pearls.” Something beautiful and valuable can come from pain points and periods of uncertainty. Pearls are made as a natural defense. As we face irritants of various kinds and of various magnitudes in our own lives, how do we transform them? How do we take our own natural defense mechanisms and form a “gemstone”? An oyster spends almost its entire life stuck in a single spot. It opens its shell only to filter food from the water. It also builds its pearls slowly—layer by layer. We, too, need to take the time to address our responses and reactions to the external irritants—the headwinds—in our collective lives. Because not only can we not afford to stay stuck, but also much of the growth we experience—both individually and collectively—is caused by the various factors that ultimately make us stronger and more resilient.

CHAPTER 3How To Think about the Future

Too often, pundits and strategists assume that the world will return to the point of known stasis from which it began. As a case in point, witness the seemingly endless stream of predictions from trusted sources who speculated during the COVID-19 pandemic about when the world would return to “normal.” To assume that there is a fixed baseline to which the world and its institutions will return is an oversimplification—and likely a heuristic that allows for many people to feel more secure about a “predictable” future for themselves.

The world doesn't operate according to the principles of a pendulum. The mental image we have for cycles is that whatever the object of attention, activity will go in one direction for just so long—perhaps too long—and then swing back, past center, to its original point, and then the process will begin all over again. When we see emotions of a society swing too far out to an extreme, we anticipate a course correction and a swing back to center and then to the opposite extreme and then back again. When we see stock prices rise dramatically and then fall dramatically and then rise and fall, over time we expect the same conditions to prevail, causing the pendulum to continue swinging back and forth around some central point.

Things cannot possibly retrace their path back to where they have been. The context has changed. Places are not the same; people are not the same; nothing is exactly the same as it was before. Everything from global employment and unemployment, economic transition, workforce migration, and technological innovation can best be understood within this context. Clearly, where we end up will not be where we started.

The Drunkard's Search Principle

The streetlight effect, or the drunkard's search principle, is a type of observational bias that occurs when someone's expectations, opinions, or prejudices influence what they perceive.1 This principle refers to a well-known joke: A policeman sees a drunk man searching for something under a streetlight and asks what the drunk has lost. He says he lost his keys, and they both look under the streetlight together. After a few minutes, the policeman asks if he is sure he lost them here, and the drunk replies, no, and that he lost them in the park. The policeman asks why he is searching here, and the drunk replies, ‘This is where the light is.’2

The point of the story? People only search for something where it is easiest to look. It is harder to find something on the part of the floor that is not well lit. In a world where information is abundant and attention spans are short, people tend to search for things in the easiest and most accessible places. It's a natural tendency to look where it's convenient and familiar, just like in the joke. This concept applies not only to physical objects but also to our thinking patterns. We often rely on what is readily available or easily observable, leading to biased perspectives or overreliance on our own value judgments. We may overlook alternative viewpoints or dismiss unconventional ideas simply because they require more effort.

The drunkard's search principle challenges us to think differently when it comes to observation and personal bias. That's because our observations are not always objective. Our perception filters and selects information based on various factors such as attention, memory, and personal experiences. Human perception can be subjective and influenced by our individual interpretations.

This conjures up a similar story: that of the “invisible gorilla.” There is a famous psychological experiment in which subjects were shown a one-minute video and told to focus on how many passes a basketball team made. About halfway through the video, a gorilla emerged and walked across the basketball court. Half the participants in the experiment did not see the gorilla. Why is that? I participated in this experiment in college and admittedly never saw the gorilla. Psychologists call this inattentional blindness—in other words, the phenomenon of not being able to perceive things that are in plain sight. How our minds see and process information is at the heart of this. The more you focus on something, the less able you become to see unexpected or unanticipated occurrences elsewhere. In this case, subjects were concentrating on the ball and unable to see the gorilla. The lesson is this: depending on your focus, your entire perspective can shift.

No matter who we are, we all carry around a load of mental baggage that we've accumulated over time. While this “knowledge” helps to shape our views of the world, it can also cloud our vision and make it near impossible to spot things that are unforeseen and new. For many unknowns, we rely on inferences made from what we do know. But are our extrapolations correct? Are the heuristics we use sufficient? How many times do we do this in our own lives, in our businesses, or when looking for a job? Just like we would never drive using only the rearview mirror, we shouldn't navigate through the future this way either.

As the early 20th-century French novelist Marcel Proust once said: “The true voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes, but in having new eyes.” Truly meaningful discovery doesn't come just from learning new things, but from discovering new aspects of things that are already familiar to us.

So, how do we shed the “invisible gorilla” that we all carry around with us? For starters, we need to question the ways we look at the future and begin seeing it through a new lens. We must recognize and revel in what we don't know as a pathway to discovering new things, new possibilities, new realities, and new futures.

The Interconnectedness of the Future

Math. A four-letter word that still haunts me. It was a subject in school I tried to pretend did not exist, and a grade I tried to pretend did not count. Trying to comprehend it was like learning a foreign language in a foreign language. I could not wrap my brain logically around it.

After years in school of feeling mathematically inadequate, I came to the realization in my adult years that perhaps my brain is just not wired to think that way. Comprehension, for me, comes in more abstract forms. Teachers were never able to recognize this, but I knew that my thinking and cognition did not follow a linear path. I have always been a visual learner. I like to see what I am learning. Many people are wired this same way.

The pop psychology theory is that people are either left-brained or right-brained, meaning that one side of their brain is dominant. If you are mostly analytical and systematic in your thinking, you are said to be left-brained. If you tend to be more creative or artistic, you are thought to be right-brained. The two brain hemispheres are unique, yet brain imaging technologies like functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) suggest that, on average, we use both sides of our brain equally.

We need to stop dividing ourselves as “right brainers” or “left brainers” and instead begin embracing the notion that we are all “brain-ambidextrous.” Or, at the very least, start training our brains to be. The better the different parts of your brain communicate with each other, the more integrated your brain. A vast network of interconnected neurons is constantly firing in a way to inform all parts of the brain of what is happening so we can respond from a whole-view perspective.

That, ultimately, is what the future will require. A whole-view perspective. A fully integrated approach to understanding how all the individual puzzle pieces fit together to build one larger, unified view of where the needle is moving. Rarely do things operate in silos. And trends never operate this way. A technological trend never stands on its own. Nor does an economic trend. Or a sociocultural trend. Or a geopolitical trend. Or a demographic trend. They are all interconnected. They inform and influence each other. Often the connections between the trends tell us more about where things are moving versus simply looking at a trend in isolation. Everything is overlapping.

The interconnectedness of our external environments creates a dynamic landscape where each trend influences and shapes others. For instance, technological advancements have accelerated the pace of change across multiple domains. The rise of AI has not only revolutionized industries like health care, finance, and transportation but has also altered the way we interact with technology itself. The intersection of AI with other trends such as automation, data analytics, and machine learning paints a more comprehensive picture of how our world is evolving. Similarly, societal changes are intertwined with technological progress. The increasing focus on sustainability has spurred innovations in renewable energy sources, eco-friendly products, and circular economies. Trends are about their collective—not singular—impacts.

Looking at trends solely in isolation only scratches the surface of understanding. That is when, early in my career, I came to the realization that math did, in fact, play a role in my thinking about the future. It might be the most simplistic type of math, but it informs all that I do. It comes down to one thing: logic. Logical relations between things, sets of ideas, and concepts. Logical relations as best illustrated by my all-time MVP … the Venn diagram. Anyone who knows me well knows that I love geeking out on a good old Venn diagram. It has helped me learn a simple yet foundational overarching lesson: it is often in the intersection between trends where the biggest sparks can occur. Straight-line extrapolation based on what we know—or think we know—will not lead us to the new types of thinking that the future requires. So, we must start digging deeper to reveal the possibilities in the white space. The white space exists in the intersections and is where unmet needs and unspecified ideas are unearthed to create new, leverageable opportunities. To truly unlock new types of thinking (and the innovations those new types of thinking could spawn), we must explore the intersections—and in a world of quickly advancing AI, this becomes an even more critical imperative.

The Future Is a Rorschach Test

Almost two decades ago, two visionary pioneers of the field and founders of our firm (then Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc. in 1977), Edie Weiner and Arnold Brown, gave me the unique opportunity to delve deeper into the world of futurism. They served as my mentors and taught me, at the very beginning of my career, how to begin spotting patterns, seeing connective threads, training my eye, and thinking critically.

And perhaps most importantly, they taught me two central lessons:

Imagination is an extension of long-term strategic foresight.

The future is a Rorschach test—our perception of it informs our reality.

Much of our reality can be likened to a Rorschach test—an inkblot that we interpret based on our own perceptions and beliefs. (And fast-forward to today and that knowledge and awareness informs much of how I approach my work.) Our mindset toward the future can be either limiting or empowering. If we view it with fear and uncertainty, we may become paralyzed by the unknown, unwilling to take risks or embrace change. On the other hand, if we approach it with curiosity and optimism, we open ourselves up to new realities. We must also remember that the future is not predetermined; it is malleable and dependent on our collective actions. Some may see atrophy and decline, while others see betterment and advancement. We have a choice in which path we choose and which version of the Rorschach test we choose to see.

Notes

1

https://freedman.com/2010/10/20/the-streetlight-effect

.

2

   Freedman, D. (2010).

Wrong: Why experts keep failing us—and how to know when not to trust them

. New York: Little Brown and Company.

PART IITime + Templosion

Part II is about time—time as a currency, time as a luxury, and time as a new value proposition. Time doesn't operate linearly; rather, it goes off in multiple directions, and its compression will affect many different facets of our lives.

CHAPTER 4The Speeding Up of Time

“Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet?”

“What?! 40 more minutes? I can't wait that long!”

“Tomorrow?! Tomorrow is forever!!”

That is time through the eyes of my first grader (at the time of writing this book). With the short answers to each of those repetitive questions being: “Nope,” “Yes, you can,” and “Not quite. Let's try that again.” Long, drawn out, laborious. Each day seems to contain its own lifetime when you are young.

Time is an integral part of our daily life, and our perception of it fluctuates with age. It governs the rhythm of our days, dictating when we wake up, eat, work, and rest. The older we get, the more minutes become a smaller fraction of our overall lifetime, so the more quickly we feel them moving forward. We often find ourselves wishing for more time or lamenting its fleeting nature. And our emotions color the way we perceive it, as time becomes intertwined with our experiences and memories. As children, we try to understand the world around us and make sense of the people in it. This may be one reason time moves slower when we are younger.

Time is also experienced linearly—the arrow of time points forward, not back. But even though the fundamental laws of physics do not distinguish between past and future, in our experience, time always points into the future. We still experience reality through linear time. In the agricultural age, we experienced it as unfolding seasons. In the industrial age, we measured time with clocks. By observing a clock, we have an impression that time is running forward. Ticking away toward some end point. When experienced this way, time seems to have a duration. It informs our experience of past, present, and future. And our society cannot function without a linear concept of time. Without thinking of time as horizontal, it would turn everything upside down, from religious holidays to work schedules to financial planning to birthdays.