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- Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
- Kategorie: Fachliteratur
- Sprache: Englisch
Learn how to make hard decisions in difficult situations -- and ensure a successful outcome In boardrooms and workplaces, as in war zones, there is a simple truth: leaders must make hard decisions. It's only through timely decision-making and clear, considered strategy that leaders can cut through ambiguity and chaos -- and protect their people and their organisation. With Best Possible Outcome, you'll learn how the military cultivates the mindset, the people, and the processes that ensure success even in tough times. What's more, you'll discover how to systematically implement those lessons within your business. With over 25 years' experience in the Australian Army, from on-the-ground combat to intelligence, Lieutenant Colonel Garth Callender has learned what it takes. In Best Possible Outcome, he shares remarkable stories from his time in service and delivers insightful lessons about risk, resilience, and agility. You'll discover a pragmatic, three-pillar leadership framework that allows leaders in any field to embrace challenges, drive innovation, and maximise results. Ultimately, you'll establish a system that ensures the best possible outcome in any situation. Develop the mindset and leadership skills essential for: * Understanding and managing real risk * Building organisational resilience * Making difficult ethical decisions * Staying ahead of the competition * Achieving success under pressure and despite uncertainty From managing risk on the streets of Afghanistan to unpacking what insurgents know about organisational agility, Garth shows how the skills used to lead teams in military conflict can improve organisational responsiveness. Best Possible Outcome will show you how to lead strategically, assess outcomes clearly, and establish a pathway out of vulnerability and crisis.
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Seitenzahl: 243
Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2023
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Table of Contents
COVER
TITLE PAGE
COPYRIGHT
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
PROLOGUE
INTRODUCTION
LEVELS OF DISORDER
GLOBAL CHALLENGES GENERATE LOCAL CRISES
ACHIEVING THE BEST POSSIBLE OUTCOME
INTRODUCTION TO THE BPO STANDARD
GETTING THE MOST OUT OF THIS BOOK
PILLAR I: THE OPTIMAL MINDSET
CHAPTER 1: LEAD WITH A RISK MINDSET
RISK IDENTIFICATION
ANALYSING RISK
ABSENCE OF A RISK CULTURE
THE VALUE OF A RISK CULTURE
BUILDING A RISK CULTURE IN YOUR ORGANISATION
RISK RELATES TO
PEOPLE
CHAPTER 2: ETHICS AND CALIBRATING YOUR MORAL COMPASS
TRAINING ETHICAL DECISION-MAKING
MILITARY ETHICAL DECISION-MAKING
LETHAL DECISIONS
WARNING SHOTS ARE
NOT
AUTHORISED
IDENTIFY THE THREAT
THE ETHICAL DILEMMA
BREAKING RULES
HOW DOES THIS RELATE TO YOUR WORKPLACE?
ETHICAL DECISION-MAKING
CHAPTER 3: THINK, PLAN AND LEAD STRATEGICALLY
ESTABLISHING STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES
CHAPTER 4: TRUST YOUR INSTINCTS
ONE WE GOT VERY RIGHT
CHAPTER 5: COMMUNICATE WITH A STRONG, CLEAR VOICE
CONTROLLING THE NARRATIVE
WHEN NO ONE CONTROLS THE NARRATIVE
THE DANGER OF THE ABSENCE OF A NARRATIVE
A STRONG, CLEAR VOICE ALIGNED TO STRATEGY
CHAPTER 6: LEADING WITH A CLEAR AND UNBIASED VIEW
BALANCING FACTS TO BEST CAPTURE REALITY
PESSIMISM BIAS
KNOW WHICH WAY YOU SWING
PILLAR II: THE RIGHT TEAM
CHAPTER 7: OBSERVATIONS ON BUILDING TEAMS
ENSURING THE RIGHT INDIVIDUALS IN YOUR TEAM
LEADERSHIP IN THE TALIBAN
WHAT THE TALIBAN CAN TEACH US
CHAPTER 8: THE VALUE OF A COGNITIVELY DIVERSE TEAM
A COGNITIVELY DIVERSE TEAM
SCENARIO PLANNING
CHAPTER 9: KEEP YOUR TEAM INFORMED AND COMMUNICATING
THE ROSE-COLOURED BALLISTIC GOGGLES FROM OVERLY OPTIMISTIC TRAINING
THE DANGERS OF KEEPING SECRETS
WITHHOLDING INFORMATION DAMAGES YOUR TEAM
HOW LANGUAGE IS PART OF CULTURE
CHAPTER 10: STAY AHEAD OF THE COMPETITION
NEW TECHNOLOGY ON THE BATTLEFIELD
POWERFUL EXPLOSIVES MATCHED WITH COMMERCIAL, OFF-THE-SHELF TECHNOLOGY
COALITION MILITARY RESPONSE
THE KEY TO AGILITY IS OFTEN SIMPLICITY
NOT THE END OF IT
CHAPTER 11: PROMOTE A RESILIENT TEAM
BUILDING A SUCCESSION CULTURE
THE IMPORTANCE OF STABLE LEADERSHIP
A TRUE SUCCESSION CULTURE
A LONG-TERM RESILIENT TEAM
ACTING AS TRAINED, BUT PROCESSING PERSONALLY
SUPPORTING YOUR TEAM FOLLOWING TRAUMA
CHAPTER 12: STRESS TEST YOUR PLAN
MILITARY PLANNING
LESSONS FOR BUSINESS LEADERS
CHAPTER 13: EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED
PROCESS AND PERFORMANCE
TRAIN YOUR TEAM FOR THE UNEXPECTED
PILLAR III: THE BPO METHOD
CHAPTER 14: UNDERSTAND AND PREPARE FOR UNCERTAINTY
PREPARING YOUR ORGANISATION TO RESPOND IN THE FACE OF ADVERSITY
THE OODA LOOP: WHAT A FIGHTER PILOT CAN TEACH US ABOUT DECISION-MAKING
DECISION-MAKING
CUT THROUGH THE EMOTION
WHEN TO CALL A CRISIS MEETING
CHAPTER 15: BATTLE PREPARATION
TIME MANAGEMENT
YOUR COMMAND TEAM: HAVE YOU GOT THE RIGHT PEOPLE IN THE ROOM?
KEY COMMAND ROLES: WHO DOES WHAT?
THE COMMAND POST
CHAPTER 16: OBSERVE YOUR COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT
ONCE THE FLAG GOES UP
FACTS AND UPDATES
ASSUMPTIONS
CHAPTER 17: ORIENT YOUR TEAM
SCENARIO PLANNING
MILITARY INTELLIGENCE PROCESS
A CASE STUDY
SET STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES
STRATEGISING IN A DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
CHAPTER 18: MAKING DECISIONS IN A CRISIS
ACTION PLANNING AND ALLOCATION OF RESPONSIBILITIES
WARGAMING
MAKE SURE WORDS ARE BACKED UP BY ACTIONS
SCHEDULE NEXT MEETING AND CONFIRM DELIVERABLES
MEETING ADJOURNED!
CHAPTER 19: EXECUTE THE PLAN, MONITOR THE BATTLE, REFLECT AND REGROUP
STAND DOWN: WHAT TO DO WHEN THINGS CALM DOWN
AFTER-ACTION REVIEWS
FIND OPPORTUNITIES TO REFLECT AND REGROUP
EPILOGUE
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
END USER LICENSE AGREEMENT
List of Tables
Chapter 1
Table 1.1: risk impacts on people
Chapter 14
Table 14.1: sample activation assessment matrix
Chapter 18
Table 18.1: example action plan table
List of Illustrations
Introduction
Figure A: a framework for decision-making
Figure B: the three pillars of the BPO Standard
Chapter 1
Figure 1.1: a simple risk matrix
Chapter 2
Figure 2.1: the trolley car problem
Figure 2.2: ethical decision-making tensions
Chapter 6
Figure 6.1: Argyris's ‘Ladder of Inference’
Figure 6.2: ‘Ladder of Inference’ adapted to experience in Baghdad...
Chapter 14
Figure 14.1: a simplified illustration of Boyd's OODA Loop
Figure 14.2: decision-making methodology aligned with Boyd's OODA Loop...
Guide
Cover
Title Page
Copyright
About the Author
Prologue
Introduction
Table of Contents
Begin Reading
Epilogue
Acknowledgements
End User License Agreement
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First published in 2023 by John Wiley & Sons Australia, LtdLevel 4, 600 Bourke St, Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia
© Trebuchet Pivot Pty Ltd 2023
The moral rights of the author have been asserted
ISBN: 978-1-394-20332-1
All rights reserved. Except as permitted under the Australian Copyright Act 1968 (for example, a fair dealing for the purposes of study, research, criticism or review), no part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, communicated or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written permission. All inquiries should be made to the publisher at the address above.
Cover design by Wiley
P101: Humvee photo: © Stocktrek Images, Inc. / Alamy Stock Photo Figure 2.1: © Oleksandr Pokusai/Adobe Stock
Figure 14.2 and BPO model icons: © iiierlok_xolms/Adobe Stock
This book contains journal excerpts from From After the Blast: An Australian Officer in Iraq and Afghanistan, by Garth Callender (Black Inc. 2015)
DisclaimerThe material in this publication is of the nature of general comment only, and does not represent professional advice. It is not intended to provide specific guidance for particular circumstances and it should not be relied on as the basis for any decision to take action or not take action on any matter which it covers. Readers should obtain professional advice where appropriate, before making any such decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, the author and publisher disclaim all responsibility and liability to any person, arising directly or indirectly from any person taking or not taking action based on the information in this publication.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Garth has helped manage some of the most extreme crises across the globe and has experienced first-hand how risks can be minimised by well-prepared teams, effective decision-making and strong leadership. After more than 25 years in military leadership roles, he now works with boards and executive teams, preparing them to manage risk and plan for uncertainty. He is much in demand as a writer, speaker and consultant.
Garth holds a Master of Business Administration, is a Graduate of the Australian Institute of Company Directors, and is an accomplished non-executive director and chair. He is a regular on business podcasts, and is often invited to business forums to provide insights on leadership, risk and business resilience. He remains a part-time member of the Australian Army, where he lectures on command, leadership and ethics to emerging senior military leaders.
Since leaving full-time military service he has held several prominent civilian roles, including spearheading government veterans' employment campaigns, sitting on high-profile boards and providing leadership to the veteran community.
Garth's first book, After the Blast, chronicled his operational deployments, including his recovery from wounds caused by an insurgent bomb attack in Baghdad in 2004. The book received widespread critical acclaim and won the 2016 Nib Military History Award.
Over his career he has trained and mentored hundreds of leaders, from middle managers to senior executives, military leaders and company directors. He is unrivalled in the Australian business community for his breadth of military experience and ability to transfer the universally applicable lessons learned to the corporate world.
PROLOGUE
Two decades of war in the Middle East have left an indelible scar on western nations, but if we are to draw any good from this protracted conflict, it can come from learning about ourselves, and our enemy. Taking the hard-won and -lost lessons of warfare and overlaying them onto the corporate landscape — risk, resilience, agility and decision-making in times of crisis — for me, this is where the learning started.
The sunlight cut through the morning haze. The melancholy melody of the day's first call to prayer had reverberated through the city streets hours earlier. As the morning emerged, so too did the streams of traffic snaking noisily through the city streets.
Under a veil of normality, the city was pulled by murderous tension.
The two men, hunters, sat waiting. Watching for their prey to cross into their trap.
…
The night before, just on dusk, the men had parked the car on the city street. The vehicle creaked and groaned as it settled on its sagging suspension while they ran their final checks. In the half-light of the floodlit city, they lifted the blankets that covered their payload. Following the wires, they looked for anything that might have been dislodged during the short drive from the north-eastern outskirts of the city. The checks complete, they looked at each other one last time before a quick nod and a slow click of the switch. They both exhaled.
Down a laneway, the shadows overlaid with spirals of concertina barbed wire. They walked quickly. A right turn, more high walls crowned with coiled wire. A left turn, and they faced the outline of the dark doorway. Up the stairs, seven floors, past the fire-blackened wall and bullet holes from the last time the building was ‘cleansed’. They had lost three brothers. One to a spray of automatic fire. The others to the large cold-eyed men in uniform who zipped their arms together behind their backs and folded them through the rear doors of large military trucks.
A brief fumbling with keys and they entered the eighth-floor apartment. The room exhaled as they opened the door. Ammonia and cold masonry.
As they had expected, it was empty, except for three plastic chairs stacked in the corner and a dull sink with missing taps. A bare light fitting dangled from the centre of the ceiling.
One threw an old blanket on the floor, his only luggage. The other lifted the sash window. Squinting, he could make out their weapon, the white sedan parked against the curb 200 metres away.
He opened the small satchel case he had received only hours earlier. Taking a moment to reflect on the instructions he had been given, he slowly withdrew the small rectangular plastic box from the case.
His mind shuddered for the briefest instant. Then, with a blink, he calmed as he found what he was looking for — a small Ziploc bag with the familiar shape of the square-sided battery.
With methodical, cautious movements he took the back off the plastic box and lined up the battery with the terminals. He inhaled. Click. Nothing, exhale.
The buzz of the city calmed quickly as curfew took effect.
They spent the night in a twilight of consciousness, taking turns sitting by the window, looking down on their killing ground. Shaken from their dozing vigil by the occasional cry of a siren, a distant thud or the rumble of a convoy of trucks with a permit to break the curfew.
They knew they would not find their prey until after the morning prayer.
…
Long after the dawn's silence had been broken the first target came into view. The distinctive whirr and guttural cough of exhaust were the first signs that the hunt was on. They watched as the heavy steel vehicles jerked and pulsed to navigate the chicane out of their compound some 800 metres away.
But the shoulders of the two men sagged as the vehicles, bristling with weapons and antennae, turned away from them, pushed through the traffic to the other side of the busy highway and disappeared into a side street.
The peak-hour traffic built quickly, and they knew they would have another chance. And almost at once, in the blink of an eye and with a sharp draw of breath, the game was back on. The nose of the heavy vehicle pushed out back into the traffic. Followed by another. Two targets … which one would they choose?
‘The first. It carries more men and we will kill more,’ said one.
‘No, the second, with its big cannon. Its destruction will photograph better.’
Device in hand, with a finger over the button, he hesitated. The decision paralysed them, and they glared at each other as the prey slipped by.
And the opportunity was gone. The vehicles thundered north to the checkpoint where the majestic Tigris River cut through the city.
Mid curse, a sound rose above the hum of the traffic. Two other heavy armoured vehicles jockeyed and bumped their way out of the compound chicane.
‘The second!’ A nod. Shoulders tensed. The remote gripped tight, a thumb hovering over the button as the heavy vehicles swung around the intersection towards them.
‘Now!’
Sometimes events in life, no matter how harrowing, provide opportunities to learn and grow. This was one of mine.
We came out of the roundabout and accelerated hard on the road leading north to the checkpoint into the International Zone. I was in the second of the two armoured vehicles, standing up in the turret. The buildings to our right had been noted several times by our intelligence team as a trouble spot.
This morning nothing seemed out of the ordinary. We had no indication that sometime earlier an insurgent had parked a car with a cargo of artillery rounds wired to a remote control. There was no sign that, as my vehicle passed it, the device would be triggered.
Of the explosion I remember nothing. I have no recollection of the blast that tore off my helmet and goggles, nothing of how my vehicle lost control and careered into and uprooted a tree on the median strip.
I must have been unconscious for only a few seconds. I came to at the bottom of the turret … I was confused and pissed off, and everything hurt.
Instinctively reaching for my head I was alarmed to find no helmet, and I knew I was in trouble, as I couldn't breathe or see and had a terrible pain in my legs. I couldn't get any air into my lungs. I tried to yell, but nothing came out.
On the second attempt, I managed to let out a whimper and draw some painful breaths. I felt the bloody mess that was my eyebrows and the bridge of my nose, and for a second managed to prise open my eyes and look down at the dusty floor of the turret …
This event took lives — of soldiers, civilians, children — and left me scarred. For many, it was the worst possible outcome, leaving them with a sense of guilt, doubt and regret as they dwelt on the question: could I have done more?
This book offers anecdotes, snapshots of fighting insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan, experiences from a military career that may provide valuable insights and lessons on broader leadership strategies. Now, years later, much of this is viewed through the lens of a business leader and presented as a framework to navigate the corporate landscape. It will give leaders an alternative and sometimes unconventional view on leading teams, managing risk and planning for the unexpected. By demonstrating the culture, people and processes needed to turn the dial, shifting a chaotic situation into one where prospective outcomes can be understood and a clear path out of crisis can be established.
As a military officer and now a risk executive, I have lived and managed some of the most extreme crises around the globe.
After returning from combat in the deserts of Afghanistan and the streets of Baghdad, I came to realise that the corporate world can feel like a battlefield too, especially when unprecedented crises arise to challenge your organisation's people, operations and value.
I have also experienced first-hand how risks can be minimised by well-prepared teams, effective decision-making and strong leadership. I now work with boards and executive teams in many countries preparing leaders to manage risk and plan for uncertainty.
In this book I have drawn on lessons learned during an active 25-year military career, overlaid with my subsequent experience as a business leader and adviser, to motivate and inspire today's leaders to equip their businesses with effective solutions to managing uncertainty and chaos.
Unashamedly, I have chosen as a hinge or inflection point of the content and perspective of this book a single event — the aforementioned insurgent bomb attack in Baghdad in 2004 and my recovery from life-threatening wounds inflicted. Perhaps unsurprisingly, it was an experience that shaped my thinking and has given me a perspective and insights that I feel privileged to have earned. I also feel an obligation to pass on these lessons to assist other leaders with real examples and, at times, alternative perspectives on organisational processes and concepts.
The book will delve further into the details of the 2004 attack, but here is a simple account for context.
I was commanding an armoured vehicle travelling through the streets of Baghdad when it was targeted in an insurgent attack. Explosives concealed in a parked car detonated approximately five metres from us as we passed. An instantaneous wave of heat, percussion and debris consumed us. We were travelling at about 60 kilometres an hour and careered onto the median strip, hitting and uprooting a large tree.
With my head and neck exposed to the blast, I sustained the worst injuries of my crew, including holes in my face and neck, scorched skin and singed hair, but civilians were killed, families and livelihoods destroyed; the soldiers, who saved my life that day, also came face-to-face with humanity at its worst. Several of them continue to pay for that.
In the short term, my most dangerous injury was from a small piece of metal from the bomb that had nicked my carotid artery on the right side of my neck. The emergency surgery to stabilise the blood supply to my brain left me with a scar running from my ear to my shirt collar.
Longer term, the puncture holes into my sinuses were most dangerous. Specifically, one on the bridge of my nose had shattered the bone into my sinus but also fractured the bone protecting my brain.
I underwent three operations, in Baghdad, in Germany then back in Australia.
I recovered relatively quickly. Not only that, but I survived without significant ongoing issues and was able to keep my job in the Army.
Eighteen months later, when the opportunity arose, I volunteered again and returned to Baghdad in 2006. It was a turbulent deployment marked by deaths, shootings, rocket attacks, mistakes, camaraderie, lies and lives changed forever. While the bomb attack in 2004 had left me physically scarred, the later deployment left me mentally raw. And I was lucky: plenty fared much worse and still carry those emotional scars today.
Being blown up can do funny things to you. For me, one of those things was it generated a powerful fascination with bombs, particularly the improvised explosive devices being used in asymmetrical warfare. This compulsion shaped my career and saw me step out of mainstream roles and pursue specialist technical intelligence. I worked in the strategic realm, tracking the global adaptation and proliferation of these weapons. I was lucky enough to assist in developing training and introducing pioneering technology to best protect soldiers. It was also the catalyst for my third deployment, this time to Afghanistan.
I learned so much from my time in Afghanistan, from the locals, from my colleagues and from the insurgent bomb makers. As a technical intelligence specialist running a team examining every bombing incident in the Uruzgan Province in southern Afghanistan, we saw so many atrocities. Indiscriminate bombing incidents often would take children and innocent civilians in the most gruesome and cruel ways. When the Taliban sought retribution or to assert control over a village or ethnic group, their violence and cruelty seemed to know no bounds.
I have been very fortunate in my post-military career. After spending a few years getting a grounding in both the public and private sectors I was able to secure several board roles. I now also consult across government and industry, leading a practice specialising in assisting leadership teams to conceptualise and manage risks and crises.
In war there is an expectation that plans will go wrong, and it is this mindset that ensures military commanders are ready to deal with adversity. Business leaders need agile decision-making to protect their business in any crisis event. In war zones, as in boardrooms, there is a simple truth: leaders must make clear, considered and timely decisions that cut through ambiguity and chaos, to best protect their people.
I am fortunate to have the unique insights and experiences from both the military and a range of high-profile civilian roles. This book encapsulates my observations on highly effective leadership and decision-making skills, knowledge and attitudes from both arenas of my professional history.
INTRODUCTION
Most business leaders aren't required to manage the aftermath of bomb attacks. The crises they manage are often much more complex.
The front page of any newspaper can be a good place to start when seeking to understand the range of issues business leaders must navigate. Unfortunately, it is often where you will find stories of leaders failing to achieve the best outcome. By failing to understand the breadth and complexity of the environment they face, they allow circumstances to get beyond their ability for decision-making and action.
The range of drivers of uncertainty and crisis is impossible to capture fully. Over the past few years some of the key drivers that have hit the headlines, had international impact and produced trickle-down effects into many aspects of our lives and businesses. These have included:
health and illness, notably the COVID-19 pandemic
extreme weather events
security and conflict
cyber crime
product failure
economic and supply chain instability
maritime and aircraft disasters.
In a highly volatile world, there are many scales with which to define a crisis situation. Here I present just two scales and examples to demonstrate.
LEVELS OF DISORDER
Simple and complicated problems can generally be managed as part of any business-as-usual activities. Complex problems are more challenging. In complex and chaotic environments, understanding the problem, let alone finding a solution, can itself be extremely challenging.
Understanding and defining the level of disorder is illustrated in figure A, based on David Snowden's Cynefin Framework. It was developed to help leaders to define the context of their environment and determine appropriate actions. Simply, each domain can elicit different actions. Simple and complicated situations assume an ordered environment, where cause-and-effect relationships are discernible and ‘right’ answers can be determined based on the facts.
Figure A: a framework for decision-making
Source: Adapted from David Snowden, The Cynefin Framework, 2007.
Complex and chaotic environments have no clearly apparent relationship between cause and effect. Often there is no way to determine emerging patterns. Therefore, the correct responses and actions are difficult to determine. The war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic both provide examples of highly complex, often chaotic situations.
When the environment swings away from being simple or complicated and enters the complex and chaotic arenas, the response changes from being a business-as-usual activity requiring a managerial process for resolution and becomes a crisis, with the need for a deliberate and coordinated response.
To demonstrate this, the topic of illness in the workplace is used:
A simple environment.
A staff member calls in sick for a week. Covering shifts or responsibilities can be overcome through a clear process. The absence of even a key staff member within an organisation can be overcome through succession and delegation of duties and obligations.
A complicated environment.
When influenza hits an organisation, resulting in rolling absences across all business units, with individuals generally taking three to five days' sick leave, a business continuity plan can be enacted to ensure key functions of the organisation continue until the illness has run its course. Additionally, other health measures can be implemented within the organisations to minimise contagion.
A complex environment.
The COVID-19 virus has affected most organisations. The severity of illness varies significantly between individuals and the ongoing nature of the changing variants has led to considerable instability and uncertainty. Adding to the issue is the need to manage the health of employees while adhering to the fluid government policies, which vary from state to state. This makes for a
complex
environment in which the ability to define the problem and how it relates to the business makes decision-making challenging.
A chaotic environment.
The broader COVID-19 landscape has been a truly
chaotic
environment. Businesses operating through 2020 and beyond experienced instability in all risk categories and the emergence of multiple risks that, while they may previously have been analysed and controlled, were now overlaid by other compounding problems. To survive, businesses often had to make enterprise-saving decisions regarding:
physical and mental health of employees and customers
financial and staffing impacts
operations, including processes and supply chains
ICT continuity for workforces working from home during lockdowns
compliance with government health policies
rapidly shifting consumer trends and sentiments.
A key to achieving the best possible outcome is to turn back the dial on complex and chaotic situations, so optimal solutions can be found and enacted.
GLOBAL CHALLENGES GENERATE LOCAL CRISES
Crises are usually multi-faceted, and what occurs on a global level can flow down to the national, the industry-wide, and the individual enterprise and business unit levels.
For example, the war in Ukraine has had a flow-down effect on a range of industries at the national level, from fast-moving consumer goods to transport, construction and even technology. It is presenting dilemmas for local business leaders. Somewhere a CEO is likely considering whether to absorb additional freight costs to manage customer loyalty at the expense of revenue and employee job security, or to pass on costs to customers, which will decrease customer sentiment, sales and market share. All because of an outbreak of hostilities on the other side of the globe.
The results of most macro events, from pandemics to climate change and global financial shocks, can be traced to micro impacts, all of which generate disorder for business leaders.
The same can be true at a local enterprise or industry level. A single business failure or decision, such as the catastrophic failures of the Boeing 737 Max 8 aircraft, the Volkswagen emissions scandal or the JBS cyber-attack, can have national and global implications.
The unenviable truth for business leaders is that they will likely often face both of the following situations:
