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- Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
- Kategorie: Fachliteratur
- Sprache: Englisch
Authoritative roadmap to the design and construction of a carbon-positive built environment
Build Like It’s the End of the World stands as a compelling manifesto for the AEC industry, confronting the urgent challenges of climate change with actionable solutions. Authored by Sandeep Ahuja and Patrick Chopson, this text embarks on a journey to redefine the future of our built environment. Through a lens of decarbonization, it challenges established norms and introduces a new benchmark for sustainable design and construction.
This book not only advocates for a radical shift in design and construction philosophy but also provides a concrete blueprint for achieving carbon-positivity in our projects and practices. The authors bring their extensive experience and research to the forefront, offering a guide that marries rigorous analytical methods with practical applications. It is a call to action, urging professionals and students alike to embrace innovative technologies and strategies that can lead to significant changes in how we conceive and construct our spaces.
Within its pages, readers will find:
- A comprehensive strategy for carbon-positive design: a detailed blueprint showcases step-by-step how sustainable practices can be integrated into projects, drawing on the authors’ vast experience and thorough research.
- Engaging tools for practical implementation: bridging the gap between high-level sustainability goals and their execution, providing readers with learning objectives, instructional activities, and compelling case studies.
- Insights on embedding sustainable practices: it offers valuable perspectives on incorporating carbon-positive principles into existing workflows, highlighting the simplicity and profound impact of these efforts.
- The economic and cultural case for sustainable buildings: demonstrating the viability and necessity of carbon-positive buildings, emphasizing the importance of a cultural shift towards decarbonization in the construction industry.
Build Like It’s the End of the World is an essential read for anyone in the AEC field looking to navigate the complexities of decarbonization of buildings. It serves as a powerful testament to the role of technology and strategic innovation in transforming the industry, guiding us towards a future where our buildings play a pivotal role in the health of our planet.
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Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2024
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Table of Contents
Cover
Table of Contents
Title Page
Copyright
Dedication
Foreword
Acknowledgments
Co-Founder
Mentors and Advisors
Professional Associates
Research and Technical Assistance
Editorial and Publishing Support
1 A Call to Action – Climate Change and the Role of the Built Environment
1.1 How Big Is the Problem of Climate Change?
1.2 What is the Business Opportunity for the AEC Industry?
1.3 A Roadmap for Contractors
1.4 Conclusion
2 What is Carbon Positive Design?
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Step 1: Set Decarbonization and Project Goals
2.3 Step 2: Evaluate Design and Construction Processes
2.4 Step 3: Develop Targeted Solutions
2.5 Step 4: Create an Implementation Plan
2.6 Step 5: Validating and Verifying the Finished Design
2.7 Conclusion
2.8 Case Study: Georgia Tech Campus Center
3 What is Carbon Positive Construction?
3.1 Considering Variables Beyond Cost
3.2 Reshaping Regulation and Raising Transparency
3.3 Rewiring the Contractual Framework
3.4 Redefining Design and Engineering Approaches
3.5 Improving Procurement and Supply-Chain Management
3.6 Improving On-Site Execution
3.7 Infusing Digital Technology, New Materials, and Advanced Automation
3.8 Reskill the Workforce
3.9 Conclusion
3.10 Insights from Natalie Terrill, Director of Sustainability at Beck Group
4 The Business Case for Carbon Positive Buildings
4.1 The Interconnection Between Climate Risk, Finance, Insurance, and Economic GDP
4.2 The Role of Climate Risk in Finance, Insurance, and Economic GDP
4.3 The Role of Policy and Regulation in Encouraging Low-Carbon Building Investments
4.4 The Opportunities for the Finance Sector in Supporting Low-Carbon Building Investments
4.5 The Competitive Advantage of Decarbonized Buildings
4.6 The Business Case for Low-Carbon Buildings
4.7 Opportunities for Energy Savings and Revenue Generation
4.8 Case Study – Emory University Campus Life Center
4.9 Insights from Michael Beckerman, CEO at CREtech
4.10 Insights from VC Shaun Abrahamson, Managing Partner at Third Sphere
5 The Role of Data-Driven Design in the Implementation Process
5.1 Current Challenges in the Building Design Process
5.2 Digital Technologies in Decarbonization Strategies
5.3 The Impact of Rapid Digitalization in Construction
5.4 The Influence of Modular Construction Techniques
5.5 Insights from Dennis Shelden, Associate Professor at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
5.6 The Potential of Emerging Technologies
5.7 Building Information Network (BIN): A New Paradigm
5.8 Applying the GitHub Model to Building Design
5.9 Decarbonization Strategies in the BIN Framework
5.10 Case Study: How a Change in Wall Structure can Impact the Entire Building Design
5.11 Case Study: How a Simple Change (Like Changing a Door) can be Efficiently Managed in a BIN Framework
5.12 The Challenges Amid Rapid Industry Change and Industrialization
5.13 Change Management in the Digital Era
5.14 Conclusion
5.15 Insights from Tristram Carfrae RDI, Deputy Chair at Arup
6 Decarbonizing Buildings: “The Low Hanging Fruit”
6.1 Understanding the Basics of Building Science
6.2 Site Selection and Building Orientation
6.3 Passive Design Strategies: Harnessing the Power of Nature
6.4 Case Study: High Performance Tower by TVS Architecture and Interior Design
6.5 Harnessing the Microclimate
6.6 Refining Solar Heat Utilization: Thermal Mass and Window Placement for Climate-Responsive Design
6.7 Internal Gains and Their Role in Building Performance
6.8 Daylighting and Lighting Power Density: Crucial Factors in Energy Efficiency
6.9 Case Study: The Importance of Reducing Lighting Power Density
6.10 Conclusion: Empowering Change Through Accessible Measures
6.11 Dr. Pablo La Roche | Principal and Professor | CallisonRTKL, Arcadis | Cal Poly Pomona
7 Shifting Decision Making Early into the Process
7.1 The Architectural View and Decision-Making
7.2 The Importance of Early Understanding and Exploration
7.3 Case Study: Phase 2 of Health Sciences Research Building
7.4 Chirag Mistry AIA, LEED AP | Senior Principal, Regional Leader of Science + Technology | HOK | Atlanta, GA
7.5 Consequences of Process Deficiencies
7.6 Leveraging Technology for Early Decision-Making
7.7 Policies, Regulations, and Early Decision-Making
7.8 Insights from Sarah Gudeman, Principal and Building Science Practice Lead at Branch Pattern
7.9 Conclusion
8 Ensuring Carbon Positive Decisions Make it to Final Construction Documents
8.1 The Continuous Effort in Meeting Performance Objectives
8.2 Assuring Appropriate Programming and Establishing Design Objectives
8.3 Kate Simonen, AIA, SE | Professor | University of Washington
8.4 Leveraging Lessons Learned and Instituting Quality Assurance
8.5 Eric Borchers | Structural Engineer | KAI Hawaii, Inc. | Honolulu, HI
9 The Consequences of Inaction
9.1 What Real Commitment Looks Like
9.2 Catalyzing Change: Strategies for Decarbonization
9.3 Our Last Chance
Epilogue: Crafting Our Future Landscape
Appendix A
Experts, Innovators, and Thought Leaders Interviewed
Organizations and Universities Represented
Sources
Index
End User License Agreement
Guide
Cover
Table of Contents
Title Page
Copyright
Dedication
Foreword
Acknowledgments
Begin Reading
Epilogue: Crafting Our Future Landscape
Appendix A
Sources
Index
End User License Agreement
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Build Like It’s the End of the World
A Practical Guide to Decarbonize Architecture, Engineering, and Construction
Sandeep Ahuja
Forbes 30 under 30, UN Speaker, Inc.
Top 100 Women CEO
CEO, cove.tool
Patrick Chopson
AIA, CPO, cove.tool
Copyright © 2024 by John Wiley & Sons Inc. All rights reserved, including rights for text and data mining and training of artificial technologies or similar technologies.
Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey.Published simultaneously in Canada.
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (978) 750-8400, fax (978) 750-4470, or on the web at www.copyright.com. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, (201) 748-6011, fax (201) 748-6008, or online at http://www.wiley.com/go/permission.
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data:
Names: Ahuja, Sandeep, author. | Chopson, Patrick, author.
Title: Build like it’s the end of the world: a practical guide to decarbonize architecture, engineering, and construction / Sandeep Ahuja, Patrick Chopson.
Description: Hoboken, New Jersey : Wiley, [2024] | Includes index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2023057795 (print) | LCCN 2023057796 (ebook) | ISBN 9781394179176 (cloth) | ISBN 9781394179190 (adobe pdf) | ISBN 9781394179183 (epub)
Subjects: LCSH: Construction industry--Environmental aspects. | Carbon dioxide mitigation. | Sustainable construction.
Classification: LCC TD428.C64 A48 2024 (print) | LCC TD428.C64 (ebook) | DDC 690.028/6--dc23/eng/20240325
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2023057795
LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2023057796
Cover Design and Image: © Patrick Chopson
To my dearest Aurora, who graced our lives as these pages were being woven together. Your birth is the embodiment of hope and urgency that this book speaks to—the necessity to act for the planet’s future. With each day of your growth, you reinforce why our mission for carbon reduction is not just imperative but personal. “Build Like It’s the End of the World” is not merely a title but a dedication to you and the generations to follow, who deserve a world abundant in life and possibilities. May this book serve as a testament to our commitment to that future.
Foreword
Our slow but certain descent from climate change to climate crisis indicates that we are indeed attempting to avert a path to the end of the world. Most of humanity continues to be numb to the facts. We are resigned from fighting planetary threats that are no longer in the distant future. There was a time before for theorizing and speculating, and there is a time now for getting practical. There is a hunger for fast, accurate, and reliable solutions to the biggest contributor to this dilemma: the built environment.
This book answers the following questions: “Why should you care, at all?” “Where do you start with carbon positive design?” “How do you manage decarbonized construction?” “How is what you built maintained after construction?” “How can your building be a minimal, yet positive, contributor to the fight against climate change?”
This publication also showcases the philanthropic perspective and the business opportunity that are presented as harmonious and necessary for our human nature.
In earlier chapters, you will be acquainted with the “why” with the intention of motivating you to learn the “how.” You can use the presented arguments to empower your professional or academic engagements through historic and future-forward evidence of why we need immediate solutions. Then, you will learn about decarbonization (both in design and in construction) and how they come together, discovering why you cannot learn one without the other if you are building as if the world is ending. Practical approaches for how your decisions can be made early, impactful, and lasting through the many stages of construction are demonstrated. You, and your practice or class, will have a clear vision of what buildings of the future will not just look like but also feel and perform.
At the heart of any decision-making process is data. The management of data allows you to make informed decisions. You can start with minimal data to capitalize on low-hanging fruits. You can also empower your practice or scholarship with advances in data analytics to make effective technology-integrated decisions. The resources provided in this book come from an understanding of practice by engaging hundreds of firms and thousands of buildings across the globe.
The authors Sandeep Ahuja and Patrick Chopson are on a mission to save the world. This book is not one-tracked; it aims to address the entire architecture, engineering, and construction industry.
Knowing Sandeep and Patrick personally is seeing hope where there could not be. By reading this book and equipping yourself and others with the tools necessary to fight climate change in this profession, you become a major part of that hope. We can be heading toward the end of the world, or the end of a world experience that is now an alternative that we successfully evaded. You are now part of that revolution.
Dr. Tarek RakhaAssociate Professor, Director of the High Performance Building Lab and ProgramSchool of Architecture, College of Design, Georgia Institute of Technology
Acknowledgments
Every book is a journey, and every journey is enriched by companions. In writing this book, I have been blessed with the support, wisdom, and encouragement of many. To them, I extend my sincere thanks and acknowledgment.
Co-Founder
Daniel Chopson, your dedication and vision have been instrumental in transforming the AEC space into practical, usable software and workflows. Your efforts have empowered thousands of architects, engineers, and contractors to make low-carbon decisions for countless buildings, creating benefits that will outlast us all. I am deeply grateful for your professional excellence, passion, and kindness.
Mentors and Advisors
In memory of Professor Godfried Augenbroe and Dr. John Haymaker, your mentorship and guidance remain the compass of our careers. To Dr. Tarek Rakha, Ed Akins II, Manole Razvan Voroneanu, Liz Martin, Louis Joyner, Greg Stephens, and Randy Deutsch, your insight and constructive critique have been instrumental in my professional growth.
Professional Associates
Natalie Terrill, Michael Beckerman, and Shaun Abrahamson, your contributions have significantly deepened the book’s content. Tristram Carfrae, Dennis Shelden, Pablo La Roche, Chirag Mistry, Sarah Gudeman, Eric Borchers, Paul Mckeever, Brian Campa, and Kate Simonen, your pioneering spirits have pushed the boundaries of our field.
Research and Technical Assistance
The cove.tool research team, spanning the years 2017–2023, your unwavering dedication to climate action and sustainability has not only propelled our field forward but also greatly enriched this book.
Editorial and Publishing Support
Kalli Schultea, Ms. Annika Kraft, Ms. Caroline Windham, Ms. Nandhini Karuppiah, and Ms. Krystl Black—your collective expertise in navigating the publishing labyrinth has been nothing short of extraordinary. Your meticulous efforts have ensured the seamless realization of this book.
My deepest appreciation goes to each of you. Without your support, guidance, and invaluable contributions, this book would not have come to fruition.
1A Call to Action – Climate Change and the Role of the Built Environment
The greatest danger to our planet is the belief that someone else will save it.
– Robert Swan, Polar Explorer
1.1 How Big Is the Problem of Climate Change?
This book is about decarbonization in the built environment. When one opens their phone and checks the news over morning coffee, the effects of climate change are increasingly shaping every aspect of our lives. But what can one do about it? It can feel like a problem too big to confront, and it is easy to “throw it over the wall” and hope someone else in the design and construction process will “handle the sustainability” bits. Yet, reducing carbon emissions from buildings is an urgent task, and as professionals in the architecture, engineering, and construction (AEC) industry, our daily choices have an impact far beyond that of the average citizen.
1.1.1 Historic Trends in Context
Is it not true that the earth has gone through warming and cooling phases in the past, long before humans were around? Unfortunately, there is unambiguous evidence that the current global warming is not caused by natural phenomenon. The primary driver of our current warming is a rapid increase in greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere, which can only be explained by human activities. The burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas releases large amounts of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases trap heat from the sun, causing the Earth’s temperature to rise. By comparison, natural sources of greenhouse gases, such as volcanic eruptions and the decomposition of organic matter, are much smaller than human-caused emissions. In addition, the rate of increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere over the past century is much faster than natural processes could account for.
Synergistic mutual effects through the food web and environment between hybrid tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus × Oreochromis aureus) and the bottom feeder common carp (Cyprinus carpio).
Source: REBECCA LINDSEY AND LUANN DAHLMAN / NOAA / https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature#:∼:text=Earth’s%20tempera[…]OAA’s%20temperature%20data / last accessed on January 22, 2024 / Public Domain.
Buildings are responsible for a staggering 40% of global carbon emissions, and a small group of design and construction professionals makes the decisions about those emissions. In the United States, architects and engineers (design team) represent just 0.3% of the total population. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 91% of the carbon reductions required to stay under a “safe” amount of warming have not yet been made, although there is no safe limit of harm to our planet. Despite this alarming statistic, we still struggle to convince our colleagues and clients of the importance of designing low-carbon buildings. It is easy to become numb to the hard facts, but there is hope.
This graph showcases the total annual global CO2 emissions, both direct and indirect energy and process emissions (36.3 GT), in a built environment.
Source: Adapted from Architecture 2030, https://architecture2030.org/why-the-built-environment/.
In this book, we will be talking a lot about carbon and presenting data to back up our arguments, but it is important to remember that it is crucial to construct a narrative for ourselves and others around taking action. All the facts and simulations in the world will not change how people think, but stories are powerful. In the end, it comes down to the story we tell about the work we do and how we do it. The design and construction professions need to articulate stories about the way the world should be. These are stories that can help us recognize and adapt our work processes and profit motivations. It is time to take responsibility and inspire others and to have the courage to challenge conventional thinking. It is time to design and build like it is the end of the world.
Designing buildings in the 21st century requires a sense of urgency and an understanding of the consequences of inaction. Our choices have a significant impact on the planet and future generations, so it is important to take a long view and consider the uncertainties and challenges ahead. Ignoring them or blindly assuming certain events will not happen is not smart. Courage is required to challenge conventional thinking and present the facts in a way that helps people understand the urgency. While kindness is the key to helping people accept the hard truths that come with understanding this, ultimately, it is about transferring that courage to others so that they too can be armed with the data and narratives to create change.
Now for some facts. What is climate change exactly? Climate change refers to the long-term shifts in temperature, precipitation, winds, and other indicators of the Earth’s climate. These shifts are unequivocally caused by humans burning fossil fuels, which release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. These gases trap heat from the sun, causing the Earth’s temperature to rise. The human-caused nature of climate change was first simulated by scientists Syukuro Manabe and Kirk Bryan in 1969. Since then, 50% of all carbon ever burned has been burned since 1985. Climate change is not a matter of belief, but a fact and it is happening right now. But this is not exactly the kind of conversation that makes one the life of the party.
This graph, based on the comparison of atmospheric samples contained in ice cores and more recent direct measurements, provides evidence that atmospheric CO2 has increased since the Industrial Revolution.
Source: Luthi et al. (2008) / NASA / https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/ Public Domain.
Digging deeper into the data, the IPCC, which includes more than 1300 scientists from the United States and other countries, forecasts a temperature rise of 1.1–5.4 °C (2–9.7 °F) over the next century. This will have numerous effects, including sea level rise of 0.3–2.4 m (1–8 feet) by 2100, stronger and more intense hurricanes, the likelihood of the Arctic becoming ice-free, more droughts and heatwaves, changes in precipitation patterns, and a lengthening of the frost-free season (and growing season). The effects of climate change are wide-ranging and affect lives and economies across the globe. Radical action is needed in the next decade if we are to stall the disastrous impacts of a spike in global temperatures.
(Left) Speculative trajectories of carbon emissions (“representative concentration pathways” or RCPs) in the 21st century influenced by varying energy policies and economic growth trends. (Right) Anticipated temperature shifts relative to the 1901–1960 baseline, contingent upon our adoption of specific RCP scenarios.
Source: REBECCA LINDSEY AND LUANN DAHLMAN / NOAA / https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature#:∼:text=Earth’s%20temperature%20has%20risen%20by,based%20on%20NOAA’s%20temperature%20data / last accessed on JANUARY 18, 2024 / Public Domain.
As the largest contributor to the problem, the building industry has a significant role to play in shaping the crisis. Interestingly, buildings offer some of the most cost-efficient ways of reducing carbon emissions and combating climate change. This is because, unlike carbon capture or more efficient cars, buildings have a lot of room for improvement in their design and construction, which is often not even simulated or cost optimized. Due to advancements in technology and manufacturing, many new materials and efficient systems are already cheaper than conventional approaches. After all, most people rely on intuition and what worked on their last project when designing buildings.
Unfortunately, intuition and traditional thinking are the last things one needs when confronting a new challenge. Especially when we look at the short-term horizon of the next 10 years, the situation is dire. The graph below shows that if we do not act, the general collapse of civilization could begin sometime between 2030 and 2040. This prediction is based on an updated reassessment of the Limits of Growth computer model, which has accurately predicted these trends since it was developed in the 1970s. The model considers several factors such as population growth, resource depletion, and industrialization and shows how they can interact in a complex system. We must take drastic action in the next decade if we are to avoid the Business-as-Usual case 2 (BAU2) version of the simulation shown here. This is an outcome that should be avoided at all costs. Decarbonization is not a “nice to have,” but necessary for the survival of civilization itself.
Limits of Growth model utilizing the BAU2 model showcases an unsustainable path when resources, population, pollution, food, and industrial output are misaligned.
Source: Adapted from (Turner, 2014).
According to the Limits of Growth model, if we do our part, the comprehensive technology (CT) scenario shows a path forward that is survivable. Humanity has just over a decade to change course and avoid societal collapse. This can be achieved through a combination of technological progress and increased investments in public services, which would not only avoid the risk of collapse but lead to a new, stable, and prosperous civilization operating within planetary boundaries. As KPMG director Kate Herrington points out, we must adopt an “agnostic approach to growth” that focuses on other economic goals and priorities, rather than simply pursuing economic growth for its own sake. If we fail to act in the next decade, the consequences could be dire, with economic decline and societal collapse becoming more likely. However, by making the necessary investments and embracing technological progress, we can create a plausible scenario for a better world.
Limits of Growth model with the Comprehensive Technology (CT) showcases a survivable path when resources, population, pollution, food, and industrial output are all aligned.
Source: Adapted from (Turner, 2014).
With the building materials and construction industry as one of the most significant contributors to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, it is exposed to carbon taxes such as the Inflation Reduction Act in the United States and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in Europe. Embodied carbon is the carbon used in building materials production, and operational carbon is from power and heat supply in buildings. In addition, the sector must also address infrastructure and sector decarbonization goals to combat climate change.
But the construction sector is not just creating risk for other people from our carbon emissions, it is also vulnerable to the physical impacts of climate change, like more extreme weather conditions on construction sites, water shortages, and other deteriorating environmental conditions like temperature increase and flooding. These physical risks can have a serious impact on our sector, and it is crucial that we take steps to address them.
So, what can the construction sector do to combat climate change? One key area is reducing carbon emissions and transition risks. This means lowering the carbon intensity of building materials in upstream production and implementing climate-smart, low, and clean energy consumption in the use phase of real estate and infrastructure. It also involves designing more recyclable materials and closed material flows in the refurbishment and demolition phases to increase the circularity of building materials.
Another critical area is building resilience against the environmental consequences of climate change. This includes measures like increasing the durability of materials against extreme weather conditions, overhauling heating/cooling, and insulation concepts, and revising water management toward more climate smart systems during the construction and use phases of buildings. It also involves lowering the potential negative effects of the construction sector on the environment, such as soil sealing and land use change.
1.1.2 How Is Human Health Affected?
Climate change has significant impacts on human health, both directly and indirectly. It affects the social and environmental determinants of health, such as clean air, safe drinking water, sufficient food, and secure shelter. Between 2030 and 2050, climate change is expected to cause approximately 250,000 additional deaths per year due to malnutrition, malaria, diarrhea, and heat stress. The direct damage costs to health, which exclude costs in health-determining sectors like agriculture, water, and sanitation, are estimated to be between US$2 and US$4 billion per year by 2030.
A synopsis of climate-related health hazards, their exposure routes, and factors of susceptibility. The influence of climate change on health, encompassing both direct and indirect effects, is intricately shaped by environmental, social, and public health variables.
Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency / https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/health-society / Public Domain.
Areas with weak health infrastructure, particularly in developing countries, will be the least able to cope with the effects of climate change without assistance to prepare and respond. It is important to note that reducing emissions of GHGs through better transport, food, and energy-use choices can result in improved health, particularly through reduced air pollution.
Comprehensive overview of climate change’s influence on health outcomes. This illustration delineates key facets of climate change, including elevated temperatures, heightened weather extremities, rising sea levels, and escalating carbon dioxide levels. It also elucidates their impact on exposures and the resultant health effects stemming from these alterations in exposure patterns.
Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention / https://www.cdc.gov/climateandhealth/docs/Health_Impacts_Climate_Change-508_final.pdf / Public Domain.
According to the 2022 report of the Lancet Countdown, climate change is undermining every aspect of global health that is monitored, increasing the fragility of the global systems that health depends on, and increasing the vulnerability of populations to coexisting geopolitical, energy, and cost-of-living crises. It is increasingly undermining global food security and exacerbating the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical, energy, and cost-of-living crises. A new analysis of 103 countries shows that days of extreme heat, which are increasing in frequency and intensity due to climate change, accounted for an estimated 98 million more people reporting moderate to severe food insecurity in 2020 compared to the average from 1981 to 2010.
Contrasting heatwave occurrences with the 10-year rolling mean of the 1986–2005 baseline. Heatwave days are showcased through three different perspectives: weighted averages based on land surface area, infant population, and the population aged 65 years and older.
Source: Adapted from (Romanello et al., 2022).
Well-prepared health systems are essential for protecting populations from the health impacts of climate change. However, global health systems have been significantly weakened by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, and funds available for climate action decreased in 30% of 798 cities. Health systems are also increasingly being affected by extreme weather events and supply chain disruptions.
Narrow lines represent the year-to-year fluctuations, while bold lines depict the long-term trends starting from different years: 1951 for malaria and dengue, 1982 for Vibrio bacteria, and 2003 for Vibrio cholerae. HDI stands for the Human Development Index.
Source: Adapted from (Romanello et al., 2022).
In the United States, each region experiences the impacts of climate change on health differently due to location-specific climate exposures and unique societal and demographic characteristics. In the United States, the CDC Climate and Health Program supports states, counties, cities, tribes, and territories to assess how climate change will affect their community, identify vulnerable populations, and implement adaptation and preparedness strategies to reduce the health effects of climate change. Most countries have some type of health risk assessment that provides striking conclusions that we ignore at our own peril. According to Dr. Daniel Bressler in his paper in Nature, there is a mortality cost of carbon. Every 4,434 metric tons of CO2 in 2020 (equivalent to three to four people’s lifetime emissions) causes one excess death globally in expectation between 2020 and 2100. Overall, climate change clearly has significant impacts on human health, and it is important that we act to mitigate these impacts and protect vulnerable populations. Changing the way we design and build buildings is one of those actions.
1.1.3 Climate Risk by Location
In 2019, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and the Bahamas were the countries most affected by the impacts of extreme weather events. Between 2000 and 2019, Puerto Rico, Myanmar, and Haiti were the countries most affected by these impacts. In total, over 475,000 people (roughly the population of Toulouse, France) lost their lives and losses amounted to around $2.56 trillion in purchasing power parity (about $7,900 per person in the United States) due to more than 11,000 extreme weather events globally during this period.
Identifying the primary victims of extreme weather incidents: weather-related loss events in 2019 and 2000–2019. The Global Climate Risk Index 2021 assesses the degree to which countries and regions have experienced the impacts of weather-related loss events, including storms, floods, and heatwaves. The analysis incorporates the most recent available data, encompassing the years 2019 and the period from 2000 to 2019. In 2019, the countries and regions most severely affected were Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and the Bahamas. Over the extended period from 2000 to 2019, Puerto Rico, Myanmar, and Haiti emerged as the top-ranking areas in terms of vulnerability to these events.
Source: Adapted from Germanwatch (2021). Global Climate Risk Index 2021.
Identifying the primary victims of extreme weather incidents: weather-related loss events in 2019 and 2000–2019. The Global Climate Risk Index 2021 assesses the degree to which countries and regions have experienced the impacts of weather-related loss events, including storms, floods, and heatwaves. The analysis incorporates the most recent available data, encompassing the years 2019 and the period from 2000 to 2019. In 2019, the countries and regions most severely affected were Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and the Bahamas. Over the extended period from 2000 to 2019, Puerto Rico, Myanmar, and Haiti emerged as the top-ranking areas in terms of vulnerability to these events.
Source: Germanwatch, 2021. Global Climate Risk Index 2021.
Storms and their direct implications of precipitation, floods, and landslides were a major cause of losses and damage in 2019. Six out of the ten most affected countries in 2019 were hit by tropical cyclones, and recent science suggests that the number of severe tropical cyclones will increase with every tenth of a degree in global average temperature rise. In many cases, single exceptionally intense extreme weather events have such a strong impact that the countries and territories concerned also have a high ranking in the long-term index. In recent years, countries like Haiti, the Philippines, and Pakistan, which are recurrently affected by catastrophes, have consistently ranked among the most affected countries in both the long-term index and the index for the respective year.
Developing countries are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. They are hit hardest because they are more vulnerable to the damaging effects of a hazard but have lower coping capacity. Eight out of the ten countries most affected by the quantified impacts of extreme weather events in 2019 belong to the low- to lower-middle income category, and half of them are Least Developed Countries. While the impact on human life is higher in developing countries, the financial penalty of rebuilding is much higher in advanced economies with high-cost infrastructure and buildings. The global COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the fact that risks and vulnerability are interconnected and systemic, which is why the Limits of Growth model continues to hold true.
Traditionally, when assessing risk, businesses and individuals tend to look back into the past to assess whether an event has happened before to predict when and at what frequency it will happen again. Now, with exponentially changing weather conditions, looking into the future using climate models is necessary. Not only that, one must also look at how climate risks can interact with previously known events like earthquakes. It is important to note that earthquakes are not related to climate change, but they can still pose a significant risk to buildings and infrastructure in certain locations when combined with a climate event. As such, it is important to consider earthquakes as part of the overall risk picture when designing and constructing buildings in areas that are prone to this type of risk. This may involve adopting building codes that require the use of earthquake-resistant materials and construction techniques, as well as investing in infrastructure and other measures that can help reduce the impacts of climate change on communities.
To bring this topic to life, let us journey into the world of architecture, weather, and climate, and unearth the specific risks and strategic design principles that must be considered when constructing a building. Imagine you are erecting a structure in Tornado Alley, USA, or on the hurricane-prone coastlines of Florida. Or, consider a setting in the Arctic Circle, where extreme cold is a constant companion. Every location poses unique challenges and threats, dictated by their individual climates, that could potentially impact the integrity of a building and the safety of its occupants.
Now, imagine the complexity of planning and constructing a building that can withstand the brute force of a tornado or the devastating floodwaters of a hurricane. For instance, the Fujita Scale, used to measure tornado intensity, categorizes an F5 tornado as having wind speeds over 200 mph, strong enough to level well-built houses and send cars flying through the air. In these regions, it is not just about creating a visually pleasing structure, but one that can stand up to the elements.
Mapping billion-dollar weather and climate disasters. From 1980 to 2023, the United States has witnessed 372 confirmed events with losses surpassing $1 billion (CPI-adjusted) each. These events encompassed various categories, including droughts, floods, freezes, severe storms, tropical cyclones, wildfires, and winter storms. While this map displays the cumulative number of billion-dollar events for each state affected, it does not imply that each state incurred at least $1 billion in losses for every event. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) US Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters (2023).
Similarly, envision a building in the freezing temperatures of Alaska, where the permafrost can cause soil instability and compromise the building’s foundation. Buildings in these regions must be constructed to withstand severe temperature fluctuations, and the design process must include an assessment of the physical risks posed by these extreme weather events as well as the potential for power and other service disruptions that could affect habitability.
Consider passive design principles by focusing on energy efficiency, minimal use of fossil fuels, and creating a comfortable living environment. This approach is a prime example of a resilience strategy used to protect occupants from climate risks like extreme heat and cold, air pollution, and other health risks. Buildings constructed following these principles are designed with airtight envelopes, super insulation, and advanced window technology to reduce energy use and thus limit the impact of external temperature fluctuations.
EUI model showing that reducing the SHGC value while allows finding acceptable visibility for occupants will help keep the heat out, lowering demand on the mechanical system.
Shading design strategies based on building types.
Moreover, we must plan for the unexpected, such as a natural disaster like a hurricane or fire that might knock out power and water supplies. Look at the impacts of Hurricane Katrina, which left much of New Orleans without power or safe drinking water for weeks. Buildings designed with backup systems, such as generators or rainwater collection systems, can provide a lifeline in such times of crisis, especially for vulnerable occupants like the elderly or those with health conditions. It is not just about surviving the immediate event but also ensuring a level of comfort and normalcy in the aftermath.
We need to ensure that our buildings are adaptable, able to evolve to meet changing needs and climate conditions. Just as a chameleon changes its color to match its environment, buildings too must be able to adapt to ensure longevity. For instance, warehouses have been converted into residential lofts in urban areas experiencing population growth, demonstrating adaptability and resilience against obsolescence.
The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events like hurricanes, typhoons, tornadoes, and thunderstorms can cause significant damage to buildings, including wind damage, flooding, and landslides. Consider Hurricane Andrew, a Category 5 hurricane that hit Florida in 1992, which caused extensive damage due to high winds and flooding. Buildings in hurricane-prone areas are designed with these types of events in mind, using reinforced concrete and high-impact glass to withstand the wind force and materials that resist water damage to mitigate flooding.
This Climate Analysis/Adaptive Comfort chart shows the time of day and time of year with the greatest human comfort.
Source: cove.tool.
This Climate Analysis/Radiation Benefit chart provides visual representation of how the solar radiation dome corresponds to the thermal impact of a building’s envelope. Using this diagram, one could thermally regulate the building’s facades with shading and other passive strategies.
Source: cove.tool.
This Climate Analysis/Radiation by Sky Segment graph maps the radiation on to a sky dome to show the intensity of the direction and intensity of solar radiation on a yearly basis around the cardinal points for Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Source: cove.tool.
Extreme heat and cold also pose a significant threat to buildings. In areas prone to heatwaves, such as Death Valley in California, buildings need to be designed with excellent insulation and energy efficiency to maintain a comfortable indoor environment, while in cold areas, adequate insulation and heating systems are crucial. Reflective roofing materials can repel heat, while certain types of insulation can keep warmth inside during frigid winters.
Building in diverse geographical locations requires comprehensive planning to address the specific risks that may be encountered. Let us illustrate this with some vivid examples. In the desert, for example, where heat is an obvious risk, the right construction materials can make a world of difference. Take adobe, an age-old building material that works wonders in these arid climates. The thick walls made of adobe create a barrier between the scorching outside temperatures and the indoor environment. Furthermore, the adobe slowly releases heat absorbed during the day, providing warmth during chilly desert nights.
Insulation is another key consideration in such environments, helping to block the intense heat from entering the house and driving down energy costs by reducing the strain on air conditioning systems. A lighter color scheme for the house, like beige or grey, can also reflect the heat before it reaches the interior, like how wearing a light-colored shirt in the summer keeps us cool. These strategies are not just theoretical but have been applied in real-world desert construction.
Moreover, the sun’s constant presence in desert environments makes solar panels an excellent building material choice for homes in desert regions. Solar panels not only lower energy costs but also increase a home’s value, making them an attractive investment for homeowners.
But it is not just about the heat. Despite the scorching summers, desert regions also experience cold late-autumn and winter seasons. Trombe walls, designed in the 1970s, are a smart addition for desert homes, offering an energy-efficient way to trap daytime heat from the sun and gradually cool the interior during the colder nights.
Similarly, in locations prone to extreme weather events such as hurricanes and tornadoes, resilient design and construction techniques are paramount. Remember Hurricane Sandy in 2012? It illustrated the destructive potential of these extreme weather events and the importance of designing buildings to withstand them. This includes, for example, wind-resistant materials and construction techniques, along with backup power and water supply systems to ensure building resilience during service disruptions.
When it comes to extreme heat and cold, the design of buildings plays a vital role in ensuring a comfortable and safe indoor environment. Just as we layer our clothes to adapt to fluctuating outdoor temperatures, buildings too need layers of protection. For instance, well-insulated and energy-efficient buildings can help reduce heat gain during the summer months and retain warmth during winter. The use of shading, ventilation, and heat-reflective components, such as reflective roofing materials, can keep buildings cool during heatwaves. Meanwhile, operable windows and cross ventilation can reduce indoor air temperatures by 10°–15°, which can be lifesaving during extreme heating events, particularly if power for HVAC (Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning) systems is lost.
Similarly, in extreme cold, window orientation and the ability to accept heat from the sun is key to survivability. Insulation can help reduce the amount of heat that escapes the building during the winter event, making it easier to maintain a comfortable indoor temperature. The use of high-quality windows and doors designed to reduce heat loss and that are not thermally bridged can increase the time the building stays warm. While envelope tightness certainly helps, ventilation is necessary to ensure that adequate oxygen is provided. Switching from gas to electric heating removes the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning if the system fails, which sends over 50,000 people to the hospital and kills hundreds of people every year in the United States, according to the CDC.
The five Passive House principles.
Source: Passive House Institute.
Overall, it is important to carefully evaluate the major climate risks that may affect a building in any given location, and to design and construct the building in a way that is resistant to these risks and ensures the habitability and resilience of the structure for its occupants. By considering the potential loss of power and other services, as well as the physical risks posed by extreme heat, cold, and other temperature fluctuations, it is possible to create buildings that can withstand and recover from the impacts of climate change.
Sea level rise and coastal flooding are a major climate risk that we need to be prepared for. As sea levels rise, coastal communities are at increasing risk of flooding, which can damage buildings, disrupt the lives of occupants, and threaten the viability of entire neighborhoods. That is why it is so important to consider the potential for sea level rise in the design and construction of buildings in coastal areas.
When dealing with the threat of coastal flooding, it is essential to build with techniques that are resistant to damage. This could mean installing impact-resistant doors and windows for high winds, elevating the building above predicted flood levels, or incorporating breakaway flood-resistant features into the design. Adequate drainage systems and flood protection measures can also help ensure the habitability of a building during times of coastal flooding by directing water away from the structure and protecting it against water damage. One also needs to consider the potential for disruptions to essential services such as power and water during flooding. That is why it is a smart idea to design buildings with backup power and water supply systems above the worst-case flooding levels, as well as other measures to ensure the resilience of the building in the event of a power outage or other service disruption like solar backup and batteries. Because of the widespread nature of risk, coastal areas have the largest adaptation cost.
However, those who live inland have another risk to consider. Wildfires are one of the most terrifying and destructive climate risks that we face. With the right combination of dry, hot, and windy conditions, these raging infernos can threaten homes, businesses, and entire communities in an instant. That is why it is so important to consider the potential for wildfires in the design and construction of buildings in areas prone to this type of risk.
To protect ourselves against the threat of wildfire, it is essential to use materials and construction techniques that are resistant to fire. This could mean selecting noncombustible materials, installing fire-resistant roofing, or incorporating other fire-resistant features into the design of the building. Additionally, having a strong HVAC system in place can help ensure the habitability of a building during times of wildfire by filtering out smoke-filled air and fine particulate matter. By investing in high-quality air filters and other air filtration measures, one can help protect the indoor air quality of one’s building and keep one’s occupants safe and comfortable.
Wildfires not only damage buildings and natural habitats but also disrupt essential services like power and water. Take, for instance, the Camp Fire in 2018, one of the deadliest wildfires in California history, which left the town of Paradise virtually destroyed and without access to power or water for an extended period. It is a stark reminder that designing buildings with backup power and water supply systems is not just a luxury but a necessity in such high-risk areas. By preparing for the worst, we can ensure not just the safety and well-being of occupants, but also the long-term viability of our buildings.
Designing a building with resilience in mind is like crafting a ship to withstand the stormy seas. It is challenging, yes, but it ensures that our creations can endure and recover from the impacts of climate change, standing the test of time.
Economic impacts from climate events can be severe when damage is not fully repaired, causing people to move away from the affected area. Let us consider the devastating impacts of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 on New Orleans. The city’s economy was crippled as people fled, and damaged buildings and infrastructure were left unrepaired. One key way to reduce such economic damage is to adopt stringent building codes that require the use of materials and construction techniques resistant to the specific types of risks inherent to each location. For example, in areas prone to hurricanes, building codes might require hurricane-resistant windows and wind-resistant roofs. Such codes not only reduce the risk of damage to buildings and infrastructure but also ensure the long-term viability and resilience of communities.
Investing in infrastructure and other measures to reduce the impacts of extreme events is another way to mitigate the economic damage from climate risks. Early warning systems, flood control measures, and other types of natural infrastructure often play an underappreciated role in mitigating climate risks. Fuel breaks and fire-resistant vegetation, for instance, can help to reduce the risk of wildfires, acting like buffers between flammable forests and buildings. For flooding, natural infrastructure like sand dunes, marshes, and mangroves can absorb floodwaters and protect communities from rising sea levels, much like a shield against the invading sea.
In places like Houston, Texas, which was severely affected by flooding in 2017 when Category 4 Hurricane Harvey hit, the lack of on-site water retention and zoning controls on impervious surfaces exacerbated the situation. If natural flood control measures such as floodplains, bioswales, and wetlands had been implemented, they could have mitigated the damage caused by the hurricane.
Urban forests, green roofs, and reflective roofs are the champions in mitigating the risks when we think about extreme heat in cities. The green roofs act like a natural air conditioner for buildings, reducing the heat absorbed by the roof. Urban forests not only provide shade but also reduce the urban heat island effect by releasing moisture into the air, like nature’s own evaporative cooling system.
Greenbelts and urban forests also serve as protectors against both extreme heat and cold. In places prone to harsh winters, snow fences and windbreaks can reduce wind chill and protect against extreme cold. Urban forests can absorb excess rainfall, reducing the risk of flooding in areas prone to heavy precipitation, while also mitigating the heat island effect.
Managed retreat offers another tool in our arsenal against climate change. It involves strategically relocating buildings and infrastructure out of areas at substantial risk due to climate change. A classic example of this approach can be seen in the managed retreat of part of the Matatā township in New Zealand following two climate change-related landslides in 2005. Not only does managed retreat protect people and property from immediate harm, it also reduces the long-term costs of disaster recovery and rebuilding.
But, as mentioned earlier, all these measures can be expensive and complicated, often involving intricate negotiations among multiple stakeholders. There is a delicate balance between ensuring safety and maintaining the cultural, social, and economic fabric of a community. It is important to note that these approaches are not one-size-fits-all, but rather must be tailored to local conditions and the specific risks they face.
The future of resilient design is exciting and challenging. As designers and planners, we are not just creating buildings and cities but shaping the future of communities and, in the process, combating climate change. The task is monumental, but the potential rewards are immense, not just in terms of safety and security, but also in the promise of sustainable, resilient, and vibrant communities.
1.1.4 Changing Regulatory Environment
As the climate change crisis grows more severe, energy codes and regulations around the world are constantly evolving to meet more stringent targets for energy efficiency and GHG emissions reduction. These changes can have a significant impact on the design and construction of buildings, as they often require the use of innovative technologies and materials as well as more energy-efficient systems and appliances.
Assessment of the US states’ adoption of energy codes in comparison to recent versions of ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1, the nation’s model code for commercial structures.
Source: Building Technologies Office. 2022 / Department of Energy (DOE) / Public Domain.
One example of these changes is the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC). It is a model building code that establishes minimum requirements for energy-efficient building design and construction. The IECC is developed by the International Code Council (ICC) and is updated every three years to reflect the latest energy-saving technologies and techniques.
One of the main sources of information and guidance used in the development of the IECC is the ASHRAE 90.1 standard, which is published by the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air-Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE). The ASHRAE 90.1 standard provides detailed requirements for energy-efficient building design, including requirements for lighting, HVAC systems, and building envelope performance.
The IECC adopts the ASHRAE 90.1 standard as a reference document, and then states and jurisdictions can adopt the IECC model code with their own amendments. This allows states and jurisdictions to tailor the IECC to their specific climate and energy needs while still maintaining a baseline level of energy efficiency.
The IECC and ASHRAE 90.1 are both important tools for improving the energy efficiency of buildings, and they work together to set standards and guidelines that help reduce energy consumption and GHG emissions from the built environment. Many other countries also base their codes on ASHRAE 90.1 making each new version an incredibly influential document.
Another example is BREEAM, or Building Research Establishment Environmental Assessment Method, a sustainability assessment method for buildings in the United Kingdom. It is used to evaluate the environmental performance of buildings, infrastructure, and developments and is widely recognized as a leading sustainability assessment method in the construction industry.
It was developed by the Building Research Establishment (BRE), an independent research organization that focuses on sustainability and environmental performance in the built environment. The BREEAM assessment method covers a wide range of environmental and sustainability issues, including energy use, water use, materials, transport, land use, waste, pollution, health, and well-being. It is based on a set of criteria that are divided into categories, such as energy, transport, water, and materials. It evaluates the building’s performance in each of the categories and then assigns it a rating, which can range from “Pass” to “Outstanding.”
It is widely used in the United Kingdom and it is also recognized internationally. Thus, it has been adopted by a number of countries around the world, including the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Sweden, and the United Arab Emirates. In the United Kingdom, BREEAM is often used as a benchmark for sustainability in the construction industry, and it is often a requirement for public sector building projects. Perhaps its most significant impact on the decarbonization of buildings comes from setting a high standard that encourages the construction industry to adopt more energy-efficient and low-carbon technologies and materials reducing the carbon footprint of buildings. It has also encouraged developers to consider the environmental impact of their projects and to adopt more sustainable design and construction practices.
Standards can take you only so far. A truly titanic shift has occurred in the United States with the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in 2022. It is a major piece of legislation aimed at reducing climate pollution and promoting clean energy technologies in the building sector. By investing over $50 billion into clean energy technologies and improvements, the IRA aims to lower energy bills; improve the health and safety of homes, workplaces, and schools; and prioritize the delivery of these benefits to low-income and environmental justice communities. These improvements include the use of efficient electric appliances, weatherized homes, rooftop solar panels, residential geothermal systems, low-carbon building materials, and more.
According to analysis by the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI), the IRA could drive millions of retrofits, upgrades, and clean technology installations in the building sector. These estimates based on the IRA include uncapped building retrofit tax credits that extend for a decade, potentially enabling even more energy efficiency and electrification retrofits than currently envisioned. In addition, the law includes more than $30 billion in flexible GHG reduction spending for states and cities, which will allow the federal government, the largest real estate holder in the United States, to address the GHG footprint of its properties. Funding for embodied carbon labeling and Environmental Product Declaration (EPD) systems for construction materials will also help develop the market for lower embodied carbon in buildings nationwide.
Lifecycle stages of building carbon.
Data source: BS EN 15978:2011. Source: Adapted from Bowles, Cheslak, and Edelson 2022.
One of the key ways in which the IRA aims to transform the building sector is using financial incentives that encourage individuals and businesses to invest in clean, efficient alternatives for their homes and workplaces, rather than mandating these changes. These incentives include rebates of up to $14,000 for low-income households to switch from polluting gas to clean energy, as well as funding for the installation of efficient electric heat pumps, induction cooktops, insulation, windows, doors, and upgraded electrical panels and wiring.
The IRA could have a significant impact on reducing climate pollution in the building sector, with estimates suggesting that it could reduce emissions by anywhere from 33 to 100 million metric tons, equivalent to between 10% and 30% of the sector’s 2030 goal to cut emissions in half. That would be a major achievement! However, the full impact of the IRA will only be seen over time as it is implemented and more data becomes available.
Project Carbon Profile – calculating embodied and operational carbon, as compared to baselines.
Source: cove.tool.
Environmental Protection Declaration (EPD) Library inside of the Project Assembly Builder.
Source: cove.tool.
In Europe, the European Union (EU
