Bulls, Bears and a Croupier E-Book

Matthew Kidman

• Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons
• Kategorie: Fachliteratur
• Sprache: Englisch

Seitenzahl: 616

Veröffentlichungsjahr: 2011

Beschreibung

An experienced Australian fund manager explains how the share market can be a fun and simple place to operate if you take the right approach. The share market is awash with new opportunities to profit everyday as millions of shares in thousands of companies change hands. Even if half of your decisions go wrong you still have a genuine chance of generating a profit like the pros - it really is the easiest game on earth! Despite all of this the share market has lost its appeal for many people since the onset of the GFC. In Bulls, Bears and a Croupier Matthew Kidman explains why a new bull market, with the potential to increase stock prices tenfold, is just around the corner and readers need to prise open their wallets. With more than a decade of experience as a professional fund manager, Kidman deconstructs the share market, explodes the myths and turns traditional thinking on its head to show new and experienced investors alike that the share market can be a lot of fun and you can make a lot of money. You just have to know how!

Leseprobe

Bulls, Bears & A Croupier: The New Bull Market And How To Profit From It

Table of Contents

Part I: The wonderful sharemarket

Chapter 1: The pitch

The easiest game on earth

Don’t leave your common sense at home

As easy as kissing

Everyone gets it wrong

It is so much better than horse racing

The market can take you around the world

The sharemarket is clean

Liquidity

Compounding returns

Shares are not the be all and end all

Chapter 2: The gun investor

Confidence

Judgement

Competitiveness

Curiosity

Independent thinking

Modesty

Patience

Numeracy

Greed

Conclusion

hapter 3: No training and no idea

Don’t be fooled, you can do it

The market does not discriminate

Part II: Building the foundations

Chapter 4: Who are you? The road to discovery

A game of roulette

Genetic make-up

What type of investor are you?

People start with the wrong question

The punter

The trader

The helicopter pilot

The stock picker

The visionary

The believer

Conclusion

Chapter 5: Creating your own Wall Street

Professionals need shoulders to lean on

What is the name of your street?

Going for broke

Big or small?

Talk to your next door neighbour

Judgement

All in the conversation

The not so wild west

A solution in the dark

Anyone for breakfast?

I should have my eyes checked

Conclusion

Chapter 6: The nine rules of success

Don’t fall in love with yourself

A juicy idea

A sickness that needs to be cured

Learn to deal with your mistakes

Say sorry

Work hard on selling

Don’t concentrate too hard

Don’t let the bank make decisions for you

Watch out for double dipping

Follow the rules of life

Read until you drop

Conclusion

Part III: Ready, set, go!

Chapter 7: Finding stocks that go up

Too stupid to fail

Fifty stocks that are safer than houses

Turn up the risk dial

The role of the broker

Behind the broker

Old news

Higher and higher

Down but not out

Charting a course

Announcements

Curiosity makes you rich

Conclusion

Chapter 8: Primary school numbers

Maths is not a prerequisite

The key financials

The three key pages

Using the three key pages

Cash flow is the truth

Ion Limited

Capital idea

Trying to make it balance

What did investors do?

It’s as easy as ABC

Go to the cash flow

Balancing the numbers

So what looks good?

Strange name, great returns

Keep it simple

span class="Bold">Chapter 9: Margins, ratios and all that jazz

PEs — the bee’s knees

EBIT, EBITDA, yah, yah, yah

EBITs, EBIT multiples and EBIT margins

EBITDA

Cash into the future

Returns that matter

See what your equity is earning you

Nothing is a certainty, though

Profit forecasts — it’s like forecasting the weather

Putting it into action

Our approach

Two-minute free cash flow

Working out working capital

You may be different

Chapter 10: All companies are different

Growth is the drug

A fantastic roll out

Technical growth

Turnarounds

Second time unlucky

Turning the wrong way

Rich in assets

Money for nothing and your cash for free

Cyclicals

The PE game

Conclusion

Chapter 11: The perfect company

10 points of perfection

The company’s balance sheet has net cash rather than net debt

The company shows profit growth in all economic conditions

The business is experiencing fast growth

The business is unique and cannot easily be copied

The company can grow without buying other businesses

The company does not exist because of government regulation

Poor management will not be terminal

The business has many customers

The share register will be free of institutional shareholders

The financials will be as easy to read as a children’s book

Never forget the price

Chapter 12: Trophy cabinet to rubbish bin

Darwin alive and well

Endless inefficiency

Aristocrat Leisure

ABC Learning Centres

There are snakes and ladders everywhere

Even the biggest can do nothing

Small diamonds can turn into big rocks

Fundamentals are everything

Some ladders seem to go into space

Chapter 13: Don’t fight momentum

Golden opportunity

Stepping aside

Chapter 14: Traps

Floats

A rookie’s pain

Why are floats risky?

The value trap

The Telstra trap

Not worth the paper it is written on

Buying the world

The problem of a successful marriage

Don’t chase downgrades

Chapter 15: The mystery of management

How do you crack the nut?

Read what the company is saying

Keep the story straight

Make sure there is no revolving door

Watch out for firms that put you at risk

Watch out for promises, promises, promises

Decide if you have a friend in bad times

Beware of hubris

Conclusion

Part IV: Exploding the myths

Chapter 16: Skin in the game

We like managers who buy shares

Primary concern

Macquarie money

No hard and fast rules

The sell smell

Chapter 17: Look for the catalyst not the company

You are in the market, not running a business

Caught in a debt trap

Feeling rejected

How do you make your money?

Even the big boys don’t know what they are driving

A lack of resources

The Holy Grail

If no Holy Grail, then what? A story, of course

Looking for a catalyst

Day of reckoning

Clear vision

Not selective enough

Conclusion

Chapter 18: Old and past it

Zombies

Where credit is due

Chapter 19: Smart money — bad results

Taking a punt

A king’s ransom

At the ‘hart’ of the matter

Forget being smart, just keep your eyes open

Chapter 20: Other myths

Timing

Headlines are always wrong

Market wisdom

Judgement is not a myth

Part V: Are professionals better?

Chapter 21: Professional versus punter

Professionals in straightjackets

Cashless

Index handbrake

Bigger is worse

Professionals go boom when the market goes bust

What you miss out on

Speaking to the people that matter

Management is a mystery to everyone

The company visit

Unforgettable visits

Motorcycles are not for me

Cash on the coast

Our own Gordon Gekko

Getting the right message face to face

Don’t forget to dress up

And the winner is …

Chapter 22: Money managers, money makers

Did we mention perfect?

So who do you pick?

In the bowels of the market

Be bold and knock on the door

Do-it-yourself handyman

Looking for a planner

Part VI: When does a bull become a bear?

Chapter 23: Is this a bull or a bear?

Is there a bear in there?

Standard or secular

Bulls are harder to find than bears

Secular bulls are the key

Chapter 24: History has the answers

I see red, I see red, I see red

The emperor had no clothes

Enter the historians

The crash and the growling bear

After the crash

Those awful ’70s

Secular flexibility

Great in name only

The message

Chapter 25: Where are we in 2011?

The United States — a long way down the track

The pain is not over

The good

The bad

The ugly

The fundamentals

Shuffling the deck chairs

Down under — for some time to come

Perfect timing

Fundamentally Australian

A reduction in household debt

Consumers curtailing their spending

The end of the resources boom

Just another economy

Chapter 26: Get ready to touch the sky

The end of the Great Depression

Bill Gates and IBM

Drunk on a bug

The Australian economic revolution

Too much too soon

The platform for a new bull market

The new bull is just around the corner

The plight of the US sharemarket

Value will emerge

Housing

Killing the debt burden

Embracing the new world

Political risk

Australia and a recession

Mums and dads saving for the future

Future winners

The insider's guide to profiting from the Australian stockmarket

Matthew Kidman

First published in 2012 by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd

42 McDougall St, Milton Qld 4064 Office also in Melbourne

Typeset in Bembo 11.5/14 pt

© Matthew Kidman 2012

The moral rights of the author have been asserted

National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-Publication data:

Author: Kidman, Matthew, 1968–

Title: Bulls, bears and a croupier: the insider’s guide to profiting from the Australian stockmarket / Matthew Kidman.

ISBN: 9780730377559 (pbk.)

Notes: Includes index.

Subjects: Stock exchanges.

Bear markets.

Dewey Number: 332.6322

All rights reserved. Except as permitted under the Australian Copyright Act 1968 (for example, a fair dealing for the purposes of study, research, criticism or review), no part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, communicated or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written permission. All inquiries should be made to the publisher at the address above.

Cover design by Xou Creative

Cover image: © iStockphoto.com/id-work

The McMillan Shakespeare Preliminary Financial Report material on pages 113–115 is included with permission.

Printed in Australia by Ligare Book Printer

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Disclaimer

The material in this publication is of the nature of general comment only, and does not represent professional advice. It is not intended to provide specific guidance for particular circumstances and it should not be relied on as the basis for any decision to take action or not take action on any matter which it covers. Readers should obtain professional advice where appropriate, before making any such decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, the author and publisher disclaim all responsibility and liability to any person, arising directly or indirectly from any person taking or not taking action based on the information in this publication.

About the author

Matthew Kidman worked as a journalist at The Sydney Morning Herald covering media, telecommunications and commercial property. In 1997 he was appointed investment editor of the newspaper, with responsibility for all company coverage. He joined funds management outfit Wilson Asset Management in 1998 and over a 13-year period served as an analyst and portfolio manager. In 2003 he was appointed to the role of chief executive officer of the group. Wilson Asset Management specialises in small capitalisation companies and its flagship fund — WAM Capital — over a 12-year period delivered a return of more than 18 per cent per year, compared with the benchmark 8 per cent of the All Ordinaries index. Matthew is also the co-author of two bestselling books: Masters of the Market and Master CEOs.

Acknowledgements

This book was 17 years in the making and many people who contributed along the way deserve thanks. Every successful investor requires the support of a hard-working and productive stockbroking network. I would like to thank Chris Walker, Danny Goldberg, James Gordon, Jonathon Scales, Hugh Robertson, Tony Mitchell, John Zemek, Preston Hamersley, Michael Carmody, Phil Zammit, Justin Bailey, Adam Brandwood, Peter Hollick, Dominic Hoare, Andrew Fincher, Richard Wolff, Adam Weir, David Johns, Danny Dreyfuss, Mark and David Pittman, Peter Argyrides, Tony Bonello and all the other brokers who helped along the way. Special thanks must also go to Ben Silluzio and Brett Dawson for their efforts while this book was being written.

In addition, I would like to acknowledge a long list of fellow investors who gave up their time over the years to teach me some tremendous investment lessons. Thanks go to Peter Morgan, David Paradice, Greg Perry, Alex Waislitz, Alan Crozier, David Smith, Karl Siegling, Erik Metanomski, John Abernethy, Mark Hancock, Justin Braitling and Ben Griffiths. Even though he is not a fellow fund manager or broker I would like to pay tribute to Ashley Owen for the research and insights he was able to provide.

As I mentioned in the text, sharemarket investors depend heavily on the people who run the companies they invest in. At Wilson Asset Management we profited from the efforts of people such as Clive Rabie, Tony Robinson, Glenn Goddard, Jim Minto, Miles Hampton, John Rubino, Greg Shaw, Theo Hnarakis, Martin Ward, Roger Brown and Ron Hancock, to name just a few.

This book would not have been possible without the unquestioning support of the team at Wilson Asset Management. The team was not only fabulous to work with over more than a decade but also supported the concept of the book from the outset. I would like to thank Kate Thorley, Mary Ann Baldock, Mark Tobin, Chris Stott, Matt Haupt and Lilly Johnson. Martin Hickson went above and beyond what was required to help me research many of the facts that I had forgotten over the years. I will miss the company of the whole team and I believe that all are assured of bright futures.